Big CorrectionThe S&P index.
The chart shows the potential end of the final rally from the 2009 low.
Currently, with this rally from the recent 4,800 low, we are still in a correction period that will end in late October (highs and lows are irrelevant), & We have a date coming up in August so let's see what happens there.
After this period, we will have a rally combined with uncertainty and unjustified speculative movements (bubble) that could take us to the final peak, which I expect in 2026.
This remains a possibility, but don't base your trades on it. However, caution is often good.
US500.F trade ideas
US500.4h chart pattern.US500 (S&P 500), here's a breakdown of the potential bearish targets you're pointing to:
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📉 Market Overview:
Price has broken below the trendline and is currently hovering near the Ichimoku cloud support.
The bearish path is outlined on the chart with multiple target zones indicated by horizontal lines and a large blue arrow.
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🎯 Bearish Targets (as shown on your chart):
1. First Target Zone: Around 5,920 – 5,930
Minor support area just below current range.
2. Second Target Zone: Around 5,860 – 5,870
A more solid prior demand zone.
3. Final Target Zone: Around 5,780 – 5,790
Major support zone, aligns with previous consolidation area.
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🧭 Strategy Notes:
If price closes below 5,950 on the 4H or daily candle, it may confirm a stronger bearish continuation.
Keep an eye on volume and price reaction near 5,920, as this is likely the first bounce zone.
Would you like a marked-up version of this chart with exact price levels and arrows for clarity?
Another drop for SPX500USDHi traders,
Last week SPX500USD broke the low of the previous week just as I've said in my outlook. After that it went up again. This pair is still in a bigger correction down.
So next week it could drop again into the direction of the bullish Weekly FVG.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a small correction up on a lower timeframe to trade short term shorts to the previous Weekly lows.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
SPX500 Technical Outlook: Balancing Risk and RewardPost Content:
🔍 SPX500 Analysis - 4H Timeframe
Our latest technical analysis showcases a detailed approach to the S&P 500 Index using Smart Money Concepts, Fibonacci tools, and volume dynamics. Here's the breakdown:
1️⃣ Trend Structure
The price has formed a wedge within the premium zone, indicating potential exhaustion.
BOS and ChOCH markers highlight key pivots, emphasizing a weak high and strong low.
2️⃣ Fibonacci Insights
We're observing equilibrium near 5,668.57, a critical area where price may consolidate or pivot.
Higher Fibonacci extensions suggest an upside target near 6,580.38, should momentum hold.
3️⃣ Risk-Adjusted Strategy
Short Opportunity: Bearish retracement expected toward equilibrium; target around 5,668.57.
Long Opportunity: Look for confirmations to buy at the discount zone or post-retracement breakout above the weak high.
4️⃣ Volume Dynamics
Spikes at key pivot points signal institutional activity, strengthening the validity of liquidity zones.
📊 Trade Setup Overview
Entry: Short near premium zone OR Long near equilibrium/discount zone.
Stop-Loss: Place below the strong low for longs or above weak highs for shorts.
Target: Extensions at 6,580.38 align with the broader bullish sentiment.
🎯 Key Takeaway: This model emphasizes patience, precision, and risk management. Be sure to monitor upcoming macro events and confirm entry triggers before committing to any position.
🌟 Follow WaverVanir International LLC for more actionable insights, technical breakdowns, and AI-driven strategies!
📈 Trade Safe,
Team WaverVanir International LLC
The Market Sways and Trump sets a deadline ‼️ Hey hey, hope all is well, don't have too much time so just gonna keep this short and get at what we need right now, thanks for tuning in.
‼️ If you've been following the news then you understand that tensions are pretty high, the conflict in the Middle East is progressively getting worse and worse by the day with The United States now looking to play peacemaker between Iran and Israel.
‼️ Trump himself has given a two week deadline for him to decide on whether or not the United States will join the fight and bomb Iran which notably has the market shaken. Below I've added a link with a reference to an article which highlights the recent news and trumps deadline.
www.npr.org
‼️ Historically, we've seen trump do this before, he's no stranger to setting deadlines, especially when it comes to global conflicts. As the article also references, trump has done this before, take April 24th for example when a reporter asked Trump on his position with continuing military assistance for Ukraine: "You can ask that question in two weeks, and we'll see" responded Trump. It's become a tactic that Trump has used often throughout his term's prompting the question of whether or not we will really see him take action by the end of the two weeks or not. So we should take that understanding and take everything with a grain of salt.
‼️ The market itself is already use to the idea of war or joining a fight like we had to deal with when fighting started between Ukraine and Russia which shook the market before things ultimately got back to routine and the market was able to price in the war. I do have to note though that the global conflicts in Ukraine are much more different than those in the Middle East so that should be taken into consideration as well.
‼️ That being said on Saturday Trump made the announcement that the U.S had launched an attack on three of Iran's main nuclear sites signifying the U.S may be ready to join the fray. That or they have taken advantage of the high tensions to launch an attack of their own to beat at Iran's nuclear progress in order to delay, prevent them from acquiring a nuclear capability understandably.
‼️ I have to go but for technical analysis we'll be watching that 200 EMA for our bullish and bearish convergences, as well as news which will give us an idea of what way the market will head. Definitely one of those times to sit and watch how things play out, we've already come relatively close to retesting our all time high breaking above 6,000 so the market's definitely got some energy. We've dealt with this before but should the U.S really get itself involved with the war and bomb Iran then I would expect the global markets to react heavily. We've seen the U.S offer aid to countries such as Ukraine but when speaking about joining war that's a different matter entirely.
‼️ Definitely be mindful of the news the next few weeks as things progress and don't be to rash with your decision and choices, stick to what's worked and let's focus on what's worked. Paying mind to our indicators and strategies alongside much patience.
‼️ Thank you for tuning in with me as always, appreciate the constant support and wishing all the best. Feel free to keep tuned for more and thanks again.
Best regards,
~ Rock '
S&P500: 1D Golden Cross incoming. 6,300 sighted.S&P500 is on an excellent bullish technical outlook on 1D (RSI = 60.006, MACD = 86.860, ADX = 23.325), extending a May 23rd rebound on its 1D MA200. Soon the market will form a 1D Golden Cross, drawing valid comparisons with the 2020 COVID recovery. That pattern, following its 1D MA200 rebound, extended the uptrend all the way to the 1.136 Fibonacci extension before pulling back to the 1D MA50 again. Buy, TP = 6,300.
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Where will the market goes from here ?Gap or hole to be filled up reminds me of looking at your own wallet. How many times did you realise that you were low on cash (yes in SG, we still use a lot of physical cash) and needs to go to the ATM machine to withdraw money to fill it up.
Logically, from the chart, it appears that option 2 is more likely to happen first before we think a rally picks up thereafter, right ? Nobody can tells you for certain where the market is going and that is why it is easier to REACT to the market moves and follows the trend rather than oppose it and predicts how it should moves.
At any time, there can be short sellers, institutional buyers, government agencies, algo traders, etc that are in the market with tons of cash to move the market. How can you possibly knows as a retail trader ? That is why it is wiser and financially prudent to follow the market trend and not go against it.
If it breaks up to 6126 resistance level, I will add more for the 2nd leg bullish run. However, if it falls to the support at 5741 level, I will buy slightly more as it has becomes cheaper.
Either way, I am long term bullish on the market
Geopolitics vs. Fed: SPX500 Trading Below Key Pivot at 5966SPX500 – Overview
Geopolitical Tensions & Rate Decisions Keep Markets on Edge
Investor focus has shifted from monetary policy to geopolitics, as speculation grows over a potential U.S. military strike on Iran.
According to Bloomberg, senior U.S. officials are reportedly preparing for possible action in the coming days. This comes as global markets remain cautious ahead of key central bank meetings that are expected to provide updated guidance on growth and inflation.
Technical Outlook:
SPX500 remains under bearish pressure as long as the price trades below 5966.
A break and hold below 5966 targets 5938, with further downside toward 5902 and 5885
For a shift to bullish momentum, price must stabilize above 6010
• Support: 5938 / 5902 / 5885
• Resistance: 5989 / 6010 / 6041
S&P 500: The Wedge, the Oil, and the Yen
The S&P 500 SP:SPX OANDA:SPX500USD CME_MINI:ES1! AMEX:SPY appears to have completed a rising ending diagonal — a classic reversal structure.
The 6050 zone stands out as strong resistance — notably, no monthly candle has ever closed above this level.
🧭 Minimum correction targets:
filling the weekly FVG
a retest of the 20-week moving average
retracement to the 0.382–0.5 Fibonacci zone from the recent leg
📌 Fundamentals support the downside:
Iran–Israel tensions are pushing oil prices higher → which fuels inflation expectations
Rising CPI in Japan may accelerate the carry trade unwind and lead to a stronger yen OANDA:USDJPY
Seasonality also leans bearish during the summer months
⚠️ Bottom line: momentum is fading. A cooling phase is likely next — time to focus on risk management.
S&P500 Channel Up buy opportunity.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Channel Up and is now on a count (5) pull-back, breaking below its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). As long as the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) holds, we expect the index to resume the uptrend, similar to the previous Bullish Leg of the Channel Up.
That Leg almost reached the 1.5 Fibonacci extension and made a Higher High. Our Target is marginally below the new 1.5 Fib ext at 6130.
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SPY where are we going into OPEX and last week of June tradingYesterday was almost an indecision candle on daily. Markets cheered the jobs data earlier in day with a nice green candle, however the pump faded going into FOMC, where AMEX:SPY and SP:SPX were around 600/ 6000 at 2pm. FOMC event mostly turned out to be a "non-event". While the no rate cut and 2 for 2025 were largely expected, Powell spooked the markets commenting that he expects higher inflation in months ahead due to tariffs. Off course this set of a set of comments from Trump which was expected as well.
While markets are closed today (Juneteenth) futures are open, and in after hours and now we have drifted downwards... as of this writing SPX is around 5950. Bulls lost the 9 sma yesterday and now are trying to defend the 20 sma. Tomorrow is OPEX so expect some volatility and movement to where big money is positioned.
Certainly bulls can show up and reclaim 9 ma at 6003 or if we lose 5950, the next level down is below 5800. Meanwhile JPM collar is intact... Do we go down from here. Tomorrow will be key as we will know if we have lost 20 sma or regained 9 sma and how this week candle looks like.
Bulls can charge but is there enough gas in tank to make meaningful upside move? Maybe possible pump to open next week (around 6060 was recent high), but bears are now lurking to take us down towards that 5800 level next week.
As I said earlier tomorrow will be telling and I will update over the weekend.
What do we need to know before investing?If you are thinking about investing money for the potential returns it offers, you should know that it may go well, but that there are always risks. That’s why we are going to give you some basic tips to bear in mind before making any investment decision.
How much money are you going to invest?
First of all, you need to decide how much money you want to put towards your financial investments.
The markets are subject to change
The financial markets are constantly fluctuating. The term volatility is the most commonused term to describe and measure the uncertainty provided by changes to theprices of financial assets.
Additionally, there are times in the market when the prices are more pronounced and every now and then there are crisis periods and asset prices fall dramatically.
Investing in financial markets means that we have to assume that our investments will always be subject to these types of fluctuations. If you are going to invest in the financial markets the money that you invest must be money that you will not need during the investment term.
That’s why, investing in order to obtain short term gains is inevitably associated with high risk. Furthermore, the larger our intended gains, the larger the associated risk. Always bear in mind that the greater the expected returns, the greater the assumed risk. Once again, be sure that you do not need the money that you are going to invest, as it may have losses.
The opposite can be said of long term investments, where the capacity to wait and overcome falls in the market means that you can assume more risk with your investments. With a long term vision you will avoid having to experience any possible losses with your investment period due to any eventual liquidity needs.
How much risk are you willing to take on?
Before investing it is important to know the risk you can assume. Every investor has their own risk tolerance level that they need to be aware of. Risks and returns go hand in hand, because for more returns you also need to take on more risk, and vice versa.
It is also good to know that just as with normal market conditions, those assets with a higher risk tend to suffer more fluctuations with their prices than those assets with less risk.
Therefore, in general terms:
When the forecasts for the financial markets are favourable and the market goes up, those assets with higher expected returns generally perform excellently.
Whenever the financial markets are going through uncertain times, those assets with higher expected returns, and therefore more risk, tend to perform worse.
You must start from a strong financial position
To invest you need to be at a point where your accounts are well under control, including your debts. We do not mean to say that if you have any outstanding credit you cannot invest, but it is essential that everything is in order and that you are in a situation where you can fulfil your financial obligations.
On the other hand, to build long term wealth, it is important that you assign part of your income to your savings, meaning that you have to invest with the money left over after making your payments while also saving part of what you earn.
It is important to keep a composed outlook
Now we know that investing bears its own risks and that the market is subject to change, it is essential to be composed when investing. When investing it is important to think positively, as if you don’t really believe that things will work out, why invest?
It is one thing to be cautious, and to know how much money to invest and what level of risk tolerance to assume, and another to think negatively each time there is a drop in the market. In reality, investing is a combination of caution and composure.
Diversification is the key to success
Somebody with less investment experience may make the mistake of putting all of their investment budget into just one thing. However, it is much better to have diverse investments, as while some investments may not quite work out as you would have liked them to, some do even better.
Losses are normal, and so are returns
We previously said that when investing it is important to stay calm, and that is true. In this regard, you also have to bear in mind that it is normal for some investments in your portfolio to not perform as well as you had expected.
We cannot predict the behaviour of the financial markets or of certain assets. We can also unexpectedly find ourselves with some assets that don’t perform as well as we had hoped. That is why we recommend, in addition to not risking more than you can invest, to diversify your investments well.
We have already said that investment involves risk, which is why it is good to know that if you are willing to invest, you are also willing to take on risks. If you are prepared to take on this risk, you can be successful in your investments.
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by HollyMontt
SPX500 Under Pressure Amid Renewed Israel-Iran TensionsSPX500 Overview
Israel-Iran Truce Hopes Collapse
Investor hopes for a swift de-escalation between Israel and Iran were quickly shattered as both sides resumed hostilities. The situation intensified further after U.S. President Donald Trump urged Iranian civilians to evacuate Tehran and abruptly ended his participation at the G7 summit, reportedly convening the U.S. National Security Council.
These developments have fueled broad risk-off sentiment across markets.
Technical Outlook:
SPX500 remains under bearish pressure as long as the price trades below 6010. A continued drop toward the key support at 5966 is likely, with a break below this level potentially opening the path to 5938 and 5902.
However, if the price stabilizes above 5966 without breaking it, we may see a rebound attempt toward 6010 and 6041.
Any signs of negotiation or de-escalation in the conflict could trigger a strong bullish reversal.
Support: 5966, 5938, 5902
Resistance: 6041, 6098, 6143
How Financial Markets Are Reacting to Middle East EscalationHow Financial Markets Are Reacting to the Escalation in the Middle East
The exchange of strikes between Iran and Israel continues. However, judging by the behaviour of various assets, market participants do not appear to expect further escalation:
→ Oil prices are falling. Monday’s candlestick on the XBR/USD chart closed significantly below the opening level.
→ Safe-haven assets are also retreating: the Swiss franc weakened during Monday’s U.S. session, while a bearish candle formed on the daily XAU/USD chart.
Equity markets, too, have largely held their ground.
The S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) climbed on Monday (A→B) following reports of potential talks between Iran and the U.S. However, it pulled back (B→C) after the U.S. President urged citizens to evacuate Tehran.
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart
News of Israeli strikes on targets inside Iran led to a bearish breakout from the rising channel (marked with a red arrow), though the downward move failed to gain traction.
At present, the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows the formation of an ascending triangle — a signal of temporary balance between supply and demand.
Still, given the elevated geopolitical uncertainty, this balance remains fragile. It could be disrupted by:
→ Further developments in the Iran–Israel conflict (notably, Donald Trump left the G7 summit early due to the situation in the Middle East);
→ U.S. retail sales data , due today at 15:30 GMT+3.
It is possible that the S&P 500 may soon attempt to break out of the triangle , potentially triggering a new directional trend.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Possible "DIP" into Monday July 7 Tarrif DeadlineHello everyone,
Well we made it. ATH! Well all things must eventually dip. I see a good possibility into next Monday July 7 Tarif deadline plus we are hitting the ATH's prior tops trendline (Red Line)....
I highlight with colored boxes 3 different price targets I think it could dip to before resuming its march higher.
Let's see what happens!