US500.PRO.OTMS trade ideas
$SPX Today's Trading Range 12.5.24All right and in SPX today we have an implied move of 6055 to 6115 and that is from options
The 30 day average volatility is quite a bit wider 6005 to 6165
Friday’s contract the implied movies between 6040 and 6130
We are at all-time high here. We made all-time high yesterday in that final candle, so that is our first level to know above that the top of the implied movie 6115, 6130 on Friday’s contract and because the 30 day average volatility is quite a bit wider than the implied move. I like to find a strike that’s in between those two and Today that is 6140 that would be likely the safest strike
underneath us We do have the 35 EMA on the 30 minute timeframe. The 35 EMA is underneath the implied move which often signals a down or flat day right around that level. We also have that gap from yesterday which could use filling and 6055 is the bottom of the implied move. 60 Friday’s contract and again because the 30 day average volatility is much wider than the expected move. I like to add an extra strike in that case and that is 6030 for today.
A speculative perspective on bull run Hello traders & seniors & passionate new ones like me , I wanted to share with you this methodology I use to keep or withdraw my trust in a macro trend.
I use Fibonacci levels , combined with how strong RSI is to cross or reach those levels.
As per chart, for testing next levels (on Fibonacci), RSI is falling , which indicates to me that , for taking long term trades, or holding assets, we need to either hedge our risk or give ourselves a regular reality check for exiting the trades & assets with profit, while reaching times next year where trend can go sideways or reverse, or if fundamentals support even go for new highs.
Rough guess March to June 2025 will be critical time for us to review our overall market sentiment.
Our over-all market sentiment impacts our trades very much even on smaller time frames. We might be grounded on 4 hour or daily, but our trading consciousness comes from macro time frames.
S&P 500 Targets: Continuation of Record-Breaking Gains Amid MacrTechnical Analysis
The S&P 500 cash index, depicted on its daily chart, has extended its record-breaking trajectory by decisively breaching the prior resistance level of 6,031.24. This movement has prolonged the established bullish trend, guiding prices towards a critical resistance level at 6,110.21, corresponding with the 141.40% Fibonacci extension. A continuation of this bullish momentum could see buyers break through this resistance, subsequently targeting higher levels at 6,149.12 and eventually 6,221.99.
Conversely, should sellers regain momentum, initially targeting the key support level at 5,840.49, a confirmed breakdown below this support would signal a potential shift in sentiment.
Key Events to Watch
The weekly jobless claims and U.S. trade balance reports are expected to provide further insights into the resilience of the economy. In addition, all eyes are on the non-farm payrolls report due on Friday, which will be instrumental in assessing the extent to which robust corporate growth has translated into labor market strength.
$SPX Yesterday's Price Action RECAPSo I was unable to make a video tonight, so this is a recap of yesterday‘s price action. We did open SPX with a gap above previous all-time highs, and then we pushed to the top of the implied move, which was 607.
So another day of all-time highs.
If you had sold spreads today at 6080/6090 would’ve closed down about -33%
And if you sold 6085/6095 those would’ve closed up about 66%.
And 6090/6100 would be up 100%
And if buying premium 6080 or 6085 would have been the winning strike
Noah or The Boy Who Cried Wolf?When I first started posting on Tradingview I was primarily focused on the broader markets and my expectation that we were nearing a generational top in multiple markets. In fact, by our estimation we should be the near the completion of a bull market that began at the bottom of the Great Depression lows.
I knew based on the price structure that the move up off the Covid lows would likely be the final move up to complete this generational bull market. I anticipated the 5000 level being significant so once I saw the pullback at 4800 in 2022 start, I began watching for its conclusion and the subsequent retracement back towards the high.
I did not expect the market to make a new high so I publicly begin calling out that a possible top was in back in May 2023:
Of course as we know the markets did not top and we have been on an almost parabolic rise since. While the size of this rally is unexpected, its resiliency is not. ALL bull markets die while clawing and grasping for every last scrap of liquidity.
With that in mind as the market reached critical junctions we prudently and publicly told people that a top could be imminent and to be extremely careful.
Yes, we added a healthy dose of hyperbole on the top. We felt that was necessary to hopefully shake whoever may see it out their drunken love with this bull market long enough to consider that the market was at extremes at almost every key metric...and you should pay attention!!!
Now we are at the point where I feel I need to make another bold public call:
SPX will most likely top at the 6400ish level sometime by January 15th 2025
We expect the decline that follows to feel "crash-like" from a sentiment perspective. Something similar to what we experienced, feeling wise, during the covid decline.
We expect the decline to last throughout 2025 into 2026 with price bottoming south of 4000 in the 3800 region (we will post more defined targets later).
So as you go through my posting history you will definitely see times where I have felt strongly that a top was imminent. You may think to yourself, "This guy is a crazy permabear who uses Elliott Wave mumbo jumbo to crystal-ball the market..no way he's right". And you know what..maybe you are right.
But you have to ask yourself:
Am I, metaphorically, the child from the story, "The boy who cried wolf", or Noah from the biblical account of the flood?
They both in their own way were screaming that "the sky was falling"...but one was actually telling the truth.
SP500 Climbs to 56th Record High of2024:Bullish MomentumContinueS&P 500 Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 has soared to its 56th record high of 2024, closing at an impressive 6,070!
The index's relentless rally shows no signs of slowing, marking yet another historic milestone as anticipated in our previous analysis.
At present, the market exhibits strong bullish momentum, pointing toward a potential move to a significant resistance zone around 6,140. As long as the S&P 500 remains above 6,060, the bullish trajectory is likely to persist, with upward targets at 6,104 and 6,143. However, a decisive 4-hour candle close below 6,058 could shift sentiment to bearish, potentially driving the index toward the 6,022 level.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 6058
Resistance Levels: 6104, 6143, 6185
Support Levels: 6022, 5971, 5932
Trend Outlook:
The broader trend remains firmly bullish, underpinned by strong momentum and the recent record-breaking performance.
Final Post: The Collapse Is Brewing🚨 Final Warning: The Collapse is Brewing 🚨
The market is flashing unmistakable warning signals. If you’re still clinging to the idea of endless upside, it’s time to confront the data. Here are the key reasons why the market is on the brink of a major crash:
1. Record Dumb Money Investment, Consumer Debt, and Reckless Behavior
Small traders, often referred to as “dumb money,” are more heavily invested in equities than ever in recorded financial history. Historically, these traders are most bullish at market tops, while smart money—like institutional investors—are quietly exiting.
A prime example is Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway. Buffett, widely regarded as one of the greatest investors of all time, has been signaling caution through his actions. Berkshire Hathaway is on track to finish its second straight year as a net seller of stocks, unloading a record $133.2 billion in equities through the first three quarters of 2024. The majority of these sales came from its largest holding, Apple (AAPL), generating over $125 billion in proceeds.
Buffett's reluctance to reinvest that capital is a significant red flag. Even more telling, Berkshire has not repurchased any of its own stock this year for the first time in six years, signaling that Buffett believes even Berkshire itself is overvalued. This aligns with his famous adage: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”
At the same time, households are drowning in record levels of debt. Credit card balances have surged to all-time highs, and auto loan delinquencies are near record levels, signaling that consumers are stretched to the brink. Meanwhile, households have allocated more of their portfolios to equities than ever before, reaching record levels of stock investments as a percentage of total household equity.
This dangerous combination of overleveraged consumer spending and peak exposure to equities creates the perfect storm. When the market begins to fall, liquidity issues and forced selling could accelerate the crash dramatically.
2. Elliott Wave Analysis: A Probable Turning Point
When Wave 3 is extended, Wave 5 is typically shorter and often mirrors the length of Wave 1. In the chart above, I highlight a potential key target at 6,104.51 on the SPX, where Minor Wave 5 will equal 161.8% of Minor Wave 1. This level represents a probable turning point, as Wave 5 is unlikely to extend much further given the size of Wave 3 and the guideline concerning Wave 3 extensions.
Additionally, the Minor Wave 1-3 trendline, shown on the chart, is a critical resistance level and a reliable predictor for pinpointing the end of Wave 5. This trendline suggests that Wave 5 is ending very soon, most likely by the end of the year.
3. Uninverted Yield Curve (After a Record Inversion)
Buffetts favorite recession indicator! The yield curve has recently uninverted, a historically flawless predictor of recessions. But this time, it spent a record amount of time inverted, signaling extreme stress in the financial system.
There is a strong historical correlation between the length of the inversion and the severity and length of the subsequent recession. With this inversion lasting longer than any in recorded history, the implications for the economy could be catastrophic.
Final Thoughts
The writing is on the wall. With record dumb money investment, Elliott Wave pattern nearing completion, a recently uninverted yield curve after a record inversion, and record consumer debt, the market is primed for a crash.
Banks are sitting on over $500 billion in unrealized losses—and that’s just what we know of. The cracks in the financial system are growing, and in 2025, we should prepare for a 40-50% correction in US equities and banking failures across the globe.
Greed and recklessness have reached unsustainable levels. History shows that these excesses are always punished, and this time will be no different.
Stay cautious—this is your final warning. There will be no other post.
S&P 500 Wave Analysis 4 December 2024
- S&P 500 broke round resistance level 6000.00
- Likely to rise to resistance level 6130.00
S&P 500 index continues to rise steadily after breaking the round resistance level 6000.00, which stopped the earlier upward impulse wave at the start of November.
The breakout of the resistance level 6000.00 accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3 of the intermediate impulse wave (3) from August.
Given the strong daily uptrend, S&P 500 index can be expected to rise in the active extended daily Wedge toward the next resistance level 6130.00, target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 3.
S&P500 short: wave 3 = wave 1Take note that this is CFD where prices includes non regular trading hours and thus allows for this count (prices using only rth can't have this count as wave 3 is the shortest wave in SPX and SPY).
I am attempting a short here as I believe that there is a chance that we are reaching the peak this week and this is as good as any to attempt a low risk short. A 10 points stop loss should be good.
Probable s&p 500 movements due to consensus analysys for 2025Given all analist predictions for 2025 linear regression, log term channel and slowing of growth
Bulls and Bears zone for 12-04-2024It seems that Bulls keep buying and there is no end to this rally.
However, all good things come to an end, it is just matter of time.
Level to watch: 6084 --- 6082
Reports to watch:
US Factory Orders 10:00 AM
US Jerome Powell Speaks 1:40 PM
US Beige Book 2:00 PM
S&P 500: BEARISH DIVERGENCE ALERT – Is This Time Different? Alright, listen up, my chart-watching warriors! 🎯✨ We’ve got ourselves a spicy situation on the S&P 500 Weekly Chart, and it’s SCREAMING caution right now. 🚨
The big question? “Is this time different?” Spoiler alert: Probably not. Let’s break it down 👇:
🚨 Bearish Divergence 101
First, let’s talk about the elephant in the room: BEARISH RSI DIVERGENCE.
📊 Price is making higher highs. (Woohoo, right? Wrong. 😬)
💔 RSI is making lower highs. (Oof. 🛑)
This is like your car’s engine light coming on while you’re flooring it. Yeah, it’s fun for now, but guess what? You’re headed for trouble.
💀 Déjà Vu? History Doesn’t Lie!
Let’s roll back the tape:
1️⃣ Feb 2020: Bearish divergence showed up. Result? BOOM – the COVID crash. 💥📉
2️⃣ Jan 2022: Another divergence. What happened? The market went full bear mode for a year. 🐻🔥
And now? Here we are in Dec 2024, and the exact same pattern is rearing its ugly head. Do we really think this time is different? I don’t think so.
👀 The Bearish Setup:
📈 Trendline Resistance: We’re right at the top of a multi-year rising trendline. This is a make-or-break zone.
💔 RSI Downtrend: The RSI is already sloping down, showing weakening momentum. Buyers are running out of gas. ⛽️💨
💡 Translation: This rally’s on borrowed time, folks.
🔥 George’s Hot Take:
This is what I call a “SELL THE RIP” scenario. Here’s the plan:
1️⃣ Watch for a rejection near the current highs (6,050–6,100).
2️⃣ If we break below 5,800, it’s GAME OVER – bears take the wheel. 🐻
3️⃣ Targets? 5,400 is in the cards, and if things get ugly, we could be staring at 5,200.
BUT WAIT… IS THIS TIME DIFFERENT? 🤔
You’ll hear the permabulls saying, “Oh, the market is resilient, blah blah.” Sure. But guess what? Patterns don’t lie.
If this divergence plays out like it has TWICE before, we’re looking at some serious downside. Don’t fight the charts, fam. 📉
Final Thoughts from the Bear Cave: 🐻
The S&P 500 is flashing warning signs loud and clear. This isn’t the time to be a hero. Play it smart:
Tighten stops. 🚦
Hedge your longs. 🛡️
Be ready to SHORT if we break support. 🎯
Let’s see how this plays out, but remember: The charts always win. 👑 Trade safe, my legends. ✌️
SP 500 heading into resistance?Hi Guys,
The SP 500 is slowly grinding higher and higher with every call for a top being dismissed by bulls as the index continually keeps creating all time high after all time high.
Price is currently heading towards an zrea where we may find some selling pressure.
The red box on the chart is that area and it contains the 2.0 retracement of the bear market high to low. That zone also coincides with the trendline drawn across the top
Daily RSI is showing divergence but not in overbought but 4hr is showing overbought and divergence
Lower timeframe entries may provide nice risk to reward trades.
Safe Trading all.
Technical Analysis for S&P 500 IndexChart Structure:
Upward Trend Channel:
The S&P 500 Index is currently trading within an upward trend channel, indicating a strong bullish trend.
Price is trading above the Ichimoku cloud, further supporting the potential for continued upward movement.
Fibonacci Extension Levels:
The key Fibonacci extension levels are plotted to help identify potential targets for future price action:
1.618 at 6,062.3 (Immediate target)
2.272 at 6,091.9
2.618 at 6,107.7
Indicators Used:
Ichimoku:
The price is above the cloud, which suggests a strong bullish bias.
The cloud is supporting the price action, reinforcing the expectation of continued upward momentum.
Alligator:
The Alligator lines are aligned in a bullish configuration, indicating a continuation of the upward trend with increasing volatility.
Price Action Forecast:
The immediate resistance is near the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level at 6,062.3. If the price continues to break through this level, it could reach the 2.272 level at 6,091.9, followed by the 2.618 level at 6,107.7.
The trend remains bullish, but if the price starts to drop below 6,062.3, it could signal a pullback toward the lower support levels.
Conclusion:
Bullish Scenario: The upward trend is likely to continue, with potential targets at 6,062.3, 6,091.9, and 6,107.7.
Bearish Scenario: A drop below 6,062.3 could signal a potential reversal or consolidation phase.
This analysis is based on technical indicators and should be supplemented with fundamental analysis for a more comprehensive view.
S&P 500 Analysis: Bullish Momentum and Key Levels S&P 500 Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 reached another All-Time High (ATH) in December, signaling a continuation of its bullish trend and the potential for further historical gains.
Currently, the price is consolidating within the range of 6068 and 6022, awaiting a breakout. Overall, the bullish trend remains strong, with the next key target at 6143. However, a break below 6022 could signal a correction, with the price potentially dropping toward 5971.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 6068
Resistance Levels: 6100, 6143, 6185
Support Levels: 6022, 5971, 5932
Trend Outlook
The overall trend remains bullish, supported by strong momentum and the recent achievement of new highs.
Not just the stocks crashing.. everythingSince i've been looking at the monthly timeframe it's been difficult to pinpoint the crash but i'm 99% confident NFP is going to do the trick. this should be interesting
TP Hit, Letting Remains RunMore To The Upside Bias As We Above Both daily & Weekly.
Potential Discounts To Occur As We In OverBrought Zone, Therefore Pullbacks Retracements On The Rise Before Continuing To The UpSide.
Trade Safe Everyone.
Happy Wednesday.
😎
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 12.04.2024🔮
⏰8:15am
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
⏰9:45am
Final Services PMI
⏰10:00am
ISM Services PMI
⏰10:30am
Crude Oil Inventories
⏰1:45pm
Fed Chair Powell Speaks
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
S&P500: No corrections possibly for the whole 2025.S&P500 is on excellent bullish levels on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 64.149, MACD = 44.390, ADX = 33.789) as it is extending the strong rise since the U.S. elections. Going back even more, this uptrend has been nothing but sustainable ever since the August 5th bottom that almost hit the 1W MA50. In fact that MA level is intact since October 2023. The index has been following a similar path with the December 2018 - December 2021 Bull Cycle that topped after a +105% rise. You can see that following the COVID correction recovery after leg (6), the index crossed over the 1W MA50 and never broke it up until after the January 2022 High in 574 days.
Consequently, we expect a continuation of the current uptrend for as long as the 1W MA50 stays intact. We are targeting a +105% rise yet again (TP = 7,150) near the end of 2025.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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SELL SPX500Looking to see if spx500 will be closing back inside the zone. once price closes then we can look for the continuation for the reversals.
The Painful Climb Ahead for indices📊 Based on the NDS model and symmetry considerations, the S&P 500 is projected to reach approximately 6,200 points 🚀, followed by a painful crash 💥 for Wall Street to reach the guaranteed lower levels 📉.(5700)
