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E-mini S&P 500 Futures (CME) (OANDA EU Clients)

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US500.PRO.OTMS trade ideas

Bearish Pressure Builds Amid Middle East Tensions, Targets 5675Middle East uncertainty after Iran attack makes for tricky trading Beyond tensions in the Middle East, there are several potential catalysts that could keep investors on edge, including the upcoming U.S. election in November and a key jobs report this week that will help shape the Fed's policy direction. Technically: The price has reached our target and continues to decline towards 5675 and 5643 while remaining below 5713 and 5732. To shift to a bullish trend, the price must break above 5732. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5715 Resistance Levels: 5732, 5784, 5820 Support Levels: 5675, 5643, 5584 Trend Outlook: Bearish while under 5732 previous idea:
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
Don’t be misled by the initial NFP reactionAll the attention is on the upcoming release of US jobs report, which is critical for the Fed’s outlook on interest rate rates. But with so much going on with regards to the Middle East and oil prices, and given the weekend risk, the initial NFP-related market reaction may not hold into the close, especially if the data turns out to a bit weaker than expected. NFP expectations: What to look out for As we look towards the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report, expectations are that the US economy has added around 147,000 jobs in September, a slight improvement from the 142,000 we saw in the previous month. Nothing earth-shattering here but do watch out for revisions for the prior months. The unemployment rate is projected to stay steady at 4.2%, while Average Hourly Earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% y/y for the second month in a row with a projected month-over-month reading of +0.3%. If these numbers hold, it’s a sign that the labour market remains surprisingly resilient, and that might just embolden the Fed to keep its foot on the brake when it comes to deciding the size of their interest rate cuts. After all, the Fed has made it clear: if the economy stays strong and inflation doesn’t cool down, they’re going to ease off on loosening monetary policy slowly. How will the US dollar, gold and indices react? A solid jobs report could trigger a bullish reaction for the US dollar, especially if it takes some of the wind out of the sails for those hoping for another 50-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting. The logic is simple: a healthy labour market reduces the need for aggressive rate cuts, making the dollar more attractive to traders. On the other hand, if the NFP report disappoints, then this could trigger a potential recovery in pairs such as EUR/USD, and give gold another boost. Once the NFP dust settles, the focus will return to geopolitics and the situation in the Middle East. With the markets obviously closed during the weekend, oil, index futures and the dollar pairs could all create a gap at the Asian open Monday should something big happen between Israel and Iran on Saturday or Sunday. Given this risk, we could see the dollar finding renewed support later, even if NFP misses slightly. By the same token, indices may be unable to hold onto much of their potential NFP-related gains. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by FOREXcom
S&P MACRO BULLISH 2025Hello RSI 50 macro analysis show a break in the trendline, and a short period for retest before making continuation like in 2017, the patterns are identical. We are in the begging of a new increase of M2 Money Supply, big stimulus around the world, so be bullish and optimistic. The vertical yellow line are the Halving Bitcoin Cycles, the election years. Like always, in the second part of October things come to uptrend right away. The chart is having the Gaussin Channel and Pi Cycle for bitcoin. Bullish forward to 2025, toward the red trenline on the chart, making new highs until reach it and then...taking all out of the markets.
SP:SPXLong
by cipriancodau
Spreads never lieThe 2-year sell and 10-year buy spread has returned to levels above 0, stabilizing around the 0.15 range. Historically, since 1966, a return of this spread from the zone below 0 has inevitably led to either long-term or short-term crises. In this case as well, we have all the necessary preconditions for at least short-term shocks in the securities market, despite the fact that the labor market remains at an acceptable 4.2%, inflation continues to stay above the Fed's target level, and both the manufacturing and services sectors are in a growth cycle. As the U.S. presidential elections approach, particularly following the success of the Democrats, the SP500 could lose 15-20% in just a few months. The forecasts from global banks are interesting, with JP Morgan's prediction standing out significantly. It is the only global bank expecting a roughly 20% drop in the benchmark index.
SP:SPXShort
by gorgevorgian
2
Is cheap valuation a reason to buy ?Valuation can remain cheap for months and years without any decent increase in share price. So on its own , it is not a good barometer to purchase it. However, given the QE stimulus/rescue package that the Chinese Government has rolled out a week ago and creating more chaos and euphoria amongst the institution and retail investors worldwide, I would say this combo is definitely giving the stock market (HSI, CSI300) like morphine to a cancer patient. Over 8% rally in a single day ! We are not referring to the individual stock but the index as a whole and this is BIG news, never happen since 2008. Now we compare the two index against the others , we can clearly see how high India, Taiwan and US have gone up thus far. At 30x earnings, US is definitely overvalued. But, just because it is overvalued, it does mean the share price will keep tumbling down immediately. Not to forget, this is the election year and October is a boring/down month but towards Nov/Dec, whoever wins, we can expect another surge in the stock market in US. Next year, what is going to happen , your guess is as good as mine. Returning to HK and China market, we can see they are cheap in terms of valuation , 4.5 years bear market and the consumer confidence is at all time low. Socially, this is not good for the government and the risk of a liquidity trap can be high. That is, government continue to pump money into the economy but consumers refuse to spend , taking only the vouchers to spend and that's it, causing no real growth to the market. The fear is employment market is bad, wages are not increasing, AI are replacing jobs (and creating ), only and main asset for wealth accumulation - property is at all time low. So, form your own decision and allocate your capital to China .
SP:SPXLong
by dchua1969
Global M2 Money Supply Vs S&P500So when we look just at the Global M2 money supply, we can see its increasing and sharply. However, when you look at BTC, BTC is lagging behind, and the increase in M2 Global supply has yet to have an effect on BTC where we would expect to see a price increase as M2 money supply increases. If you compare the M2 Global money supply against S&P500 though, it tells us a different story, where the S&P is leading and BTC is lagging. Signalling to me a catch up in BTC is inevitable at this stage and its being squeezed at these levels as money flow increases. A good signs imo and no doubt BTC catches up to S&P500
BLACKBULL:SPX500Long
by marshyyy
1
A Major Storm in the HorizonRecently we saw new All Time Highs (ATH), the indexes have been on the rise. However there's something in the works. The so called "Fear Index" TVC:VIX has been stubbornly increasing its level and for a while it has breached the 20 level. Which is the borderline from a calmed ascending market and a correction. The level of the correction may go from just an adjustment in the trend, sending the index back to the long term moving averages, like the 50/100. This is not yet a bear market, which can't be forecasted from just the levels we have at this time. The FED was aggressive with its first interest rate cut, the market is looking forward for margin at a discount and it knows how to ask for it. We'll have to keep an eye in the Fed balance sheet, the bond yield, inflation and unemployment. The momentum divergences in the upper time frame have been increasing. Higher levels with lower momentum, this is a sign of reversal. So far it's about time for a trend correction, a bear market will be seen if the main moving averages (20, 50) in the Weekly are breached and its support turns into resistance. Good Trading Everyone !
SP:SPXShort
by Madrid
2
Arabian XXXOh, the market’s wild, up and down, One day you’re king, next day a clown! You bought the dip, or so you thought, But now that dip’s a deeper spot. You watch the tickers, heart in race, Wondering if you’ve lost the chase. “Hold the line!” the forums cheer, While your portfolio sheds a tear. Sell in May, and go away? Or double down and hope you’ll stay? Options, futures, ETFs— All just ways to stress yourself! But in the end, it’s just a ride, Stocks will soar and stocks will slide. So grab some coffee, don’t despair— Tomorrow’s gains might clear the air!
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by Grp_crow
S&P500 Fractal from 2019 points to a 6100 rally.The S&P500 (SPX) is absorbing all the negative news on the recent geopolitical unrest in the Middle East and could post its first red week after a streak of three green 1W candles. This shouldn't however make us lose our long-term perspective and a fractal from 2018 - 2020 comes to remind us why. As you can see, the 1W RSI sequence from July 24 2023 until now, is quite similar to the one from October 01 2018 - September 30 2019. The price actions between the two fractals are also similar. Both started with a bottom on (or near) the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and transitioned into a Bullish Megaphone. After the September 30 2019 Low, the index resumed the uptrend within a (green) Channel Up, which extended higher up until the COVID crash, which is of course a 1-in-100 year Black Swan event that couldn't have been predicted. If it weren't for that, the market would have at best tested the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for new buyers and then extended the bullish trend like it did after June 2020. In any case, we expect a similar behavior with a bullish continuation of +25.50% from the last Low (-3% lower like the 2019 rise was from its previous Bullish Leg). This gives us an end-of-year Target around 6100. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
long term the snp never dies (your retirement funds it)just posting some fun patterns. patterns seen: megaphone. (bullish) This chart pattern consists of higher-highs and lower-lows on both sides and requires a total of five (5) swings, testing each side two (2) times. We also define the middle of this chart pattern as the ‘mid-line’ which is used for taking profit-targets. Megaphone patterns are ideal for following the long-term-trend; however, you can also use these patterns for counter-trend trading opportunities as well. cup n handle (into)/ascending triangle (bullish) An ascending triangle is a strong pattern used in technical analysis. It is created by price moves that allow for a horizontal line to be drawn along the swing highs and a rising trendline to be drawn along the swing lows. The two lines form a triangle. Traders often watch for breakouts from triangle patterns. The breakout can occur to the upside or downside. Ascending triangles are often called continuation patterns since price will typically break out in the same direction as the trend that was in place just prior to the triangle forming .An ascending triangle is tradable in that it provides a clear entry point, profit target, and stop-loss level. It may be contrasted with a descending triangle
SP:SPXLong
by dead4586
S&P500 Consolidation before the next leg to 6000.The S&P500 index / US500 may have pulled back a little today but on the long term pattern, which is a Rising Megaphone, it only shows that it turned sideways. This ranged trading, is the consolidation that the previous leg up did after rebounding on the 0.618 Fib and the 1day MA50. The index is possibly repeating this pattern so what's next is a rally to the 1.618 Fib extension. Buy and target 6000. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TheCryptagon
Understanding Warren Buffett’s Investment PhilosophyWarren Buffett is arguably one of the most successful investors of all time. Over the years, he has developed a set of principles and strategies over his career. He was inspired by the teachings of key financial thinkers like Phil Fisher, Benjamin Graham and Charlie Munger. Key Influences Phil Fisher Fisher’s approach focusses on quality companies with long-term growth potential, emphasizing focused portfolios and long-term holdings. He believed in gathering information about a company beyond what’s readily available. His lessons on maintaining a focused portfolio and committing to long-term holdings are clear influences on Buffett’s patient, value-driven investment philosophy. Benjamin Graham Known as the father of value investing, Graham’s core principle was to buy stocks at a price lower than their intrinsic value, creating a margin of safety (MOS). This strategy helps mitigate risk and increase the likelihood of future gains. Buffett absorbed Graham’s teaching on finding stocks that are undervalued and buying them at the right price— definitely a large contributor of his investment success. Charlie Munger Munger is Warren Buffett’s long-time business partner. He introduced the concept of economic moats, which refers to a company’s long-term, sustainable competitive advantages. Munger advocates investing in businesses that can fend off competition and maintain profitability over time. This philosophy drives Buffett’s focus on companies with strong market positions and solid long-term potential, favoring these over shorter-term, speculative opportunities. Buffett's Investment Approach 1 - Buy for the Long Term. Buffett’s strategy emphasizes identifying companies that can consistently perform well over long periods. He holds stocks for years, or even decades, often looking for opportunities where other investors may overlook value. 2 - Buy at the Right Price . Buffett is known for his discipline in waiting for the right moment to invest. His approach ensures he doesn’t overpay, instead seeking stocks when they are priced below their true value, maintaining a margin of safety. 3 - Buy the Right Stocks . Buffett doesn’t just buy cheap stocks, he buys quality companies with sustainable advantages. His goal is to invest in firms with strong business models that will continue to perform well regardless of market conditions. Warren Buffett emphasizes investing in companies with simple and clear business models , ones that fall within his circle of competence. He prefers to thoroughly understand the operations, products, and long-term prospects of a company before making any investment. This principle is combined with in-depth analysis of how the company operates and how sustainable its valuations and future growth prospects are. If a business model is too complex or outside his expertise, he avoids it. He prioritizes companies with integrity and transparency in their management. He believes in backing leaders who are passionate, have strong vision and execution capabilities and who use shareholder funds wisely. Trusting management to run the company effectively, with efficiency and accountability, is critical for long-term success in Buffett’s eyes. Investing in quality companies isn’t enough—Buffett also insists on buying them at attractive prices. He maintains a strict discipline of buying with a margin of safety, ensuring the price paid is lower than the company’s intrinsic value. This means waiting for opportunities to buy great businesses at fair prices rather than settling for fair businesses at attractive prices , which may not perform well over time. Buffett has made many of his lessons and strategies available to the public through his letters to shareholders and partnership letters. These documents offer insight into his investment approach, decision-making process, and lessons from both successes and failures. There are several key books that capture Buffett’s life, philosophy, and strategies in greater detail: Warren Buffett’s Ground Rules The Warren Buffett Way Buffett: The Making of an American Capitalist The Warren Buffett Portfolio The Snowball: Warren Buffett and the Business of Life Each of these resources provides a comprehensive look into the mind of one of the most successful investors of all time, offering practical advice and detailed case studies of his investments. ________________________________
SP:SPX
by CryptoCheck-