S&P 500 Breaks Wedge Pattern, Eyes 6020 TargetThe S&P 500 has triggered a 64-day-old wedge pattern, signaling the potential for the index to rally towards 6020 in the coming weeks. The pattern remains active as long as the index trades above 5618, with initial support forming at 5685. A sustained move above these levels could confirm further bullish momentum, while a drop below 5618 would invalidate the setup.
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US500.PRO.OTMS trade ideas
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S&P500 Powell gave what the market wanted. Rally up to mid-2025?Chair Powell went out and did it yesterday as the Fed didn't just cut the Interest Rates yesterday for the first time since March 2020, but did so by -0.50%, giving the market what it so desperately wanted. The question now on everyone's mind is this: is this what the market needed to extend the 2023 - 2024 rally?
Fundamentally of course the cuts is a strong reason and as for the technical part we will let an old analysis of ours (last updated May 16, see chart below):
As you can see, we published that at a time when there were again voices over an extended correction due to April's strong red candle. What happened instead? The S&P500 (SPX) posted 4 straight green months (not including September). Once again we present to you this chart, to help everyone maintain a healthy long-term perspective.
Wide, long-term time-frames like 1W or 1M (such as the current one) succeed at filtering out the short-term noise caused by volatility, news etc. As you can see on this chart, which we named "The Ultimate stock market cheat sheet", the index goes through very distinct market through roughly the past 20 years. More specifically, since the 2007/08 Housing Crisis, there is a very consistent pattern and the Sine Waves display perfectly that frequency.
The first observation is that there is a rough frequency when the S&P500 tops every 3.5 years. In this time-span of 42 months (3.5 years) the index either hits a High or already has and is on a minor decline before a stronger correction comes, which is always within the technical standards of pull-backs within a greater Bull Cycle expansion.
Roughly also, the sell signal is given after the 1M RSI breaks below its MA (yellow trend-line) having previously been on overbought territory (above 70.00). Once the index hits the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) again, usually a year at most after the Sine Wave top, the most optimal long-term buy signal emerges again. Investors who have applied this strategy/ principle since 2009, have had a total of 5 excellent buy opportunities for tremendous gains at the lowest possible risk.
In conclusion, the market still has almost another year (roughly), until a sell signal emerges (July 2025). In our opinion, having always a low risk profile in our investments, it is advisable to be off stocks before that date just to be on the safe side. The important outcome of this finding, however, is that investors can continue feel safe buying for several more months, especially after the Fed gave a strong excuse to do so.
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Market Caution: Key Bearish Indicators Emerge After Fed CutFollowing the Fed rate cut last night, the S&P sold off into the close, forming a shooting star candlestick, which is typically a bearish signal. Coupled with a diverging RSI, this marks the third failed attempt to break above the 5670 July high. These indicators are compelling enough to consider a more cautious, short-term negative stance on the market, especially if we see further weakness today to confirm the pattern. Initial support levels are the 5402 September low and the 200-day MA at 5188.
For those unfamiliar, a shooting star candlestick is characterized by a long upper shadow, little to no lower shadow, and a small real body near the low. It appears during an uptrend and suggests a potential reversal.
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S&P500 Bearish div?Hello, i think now we have another bearish diversion. Lets see where it will go from here.
EUR/USD Forecasting: A Complex TaskEUR/USD Forecasting: A Complex Task
Forecasting the EUR/USD exchange rate is a challenging endeavor due to numerous factors influencing its movement. These include economic indicators from both the Eurozone and the United States, geopolitical events, central bank policies, market sentiment, and technical analysis.
Key Factors to Consider:
Economic Indicators:
Interest Rate Differentials: The relative interest rates between the Eurozone and the United States can significantly impact currency exchange rates. Higher interest rates typically attract capital, leading to a stronger currency.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Economic growth rates in both regions can influence currency values. A stronger economy often leads to a stronger currency.
Inflation: Higher inflation can weaken a currency as it reduces the purchasing power of domestic goods and services.
Trade Balances: A trade deficit (importing more than exporting) can put downward pressure on a currency, while a trade surplus can strengthen it.
Central Bank Policies:
Monetary Policy: The actions of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) can have a profound impact on exchange rates. Interest rate changes, quantitative easing, and other policy measures can influence capital flows and currency values.
Geopolitical Events:
Political Instability: Political turmoil or uncertainty in either region can lead to currency volatility.
Trade Wars: Trade disputes or tariffs can disrupt global trade and affect exchange rates.
Market Sentiment:
Risk Appetite: Investor sentiment can influence currency markets. During periods of risk aversion, investors may favor safe-haven currencies like the US dollar.
Forecasting Methods:
Fundamental Analysis: This involves analyzing economic indicators, central bank policies, and geopolitical events to assess the underlying value of a currency.
Technical Analysis: This method uses historical price data and charts to identify patterns and trends that may predict future price movements.
Quantitative Analysis: This approach employs statistical models and algorithms to analyze large datasets and identify correlations between variables that may influence exchange rates.
It's important to note that no forecasting method is foolproof. Currency markets are highly volatile, and unexpected events can significantly impact exchange rates. A combination of fundamental, technical, and quantitative analysis can provide a more comprehensive understanding of market dynamics.
The U.S. is now entering a recessionThe U.S. economy has faced a number of factors in recent years that may increase the likelihood of a recession. My expectations regarding the recession were not about whether it would happen or not. The fact that a recession would occur was already confirmed in 2023, and the question was only when it would start and how soon it would happen. During the current crisis, the U.S. postponed the recession by all possible means, but eventually, all confirmations of the recession's onset were received. Now the U.S. is triggering a new global crisis, which will be accompanied by all the resulting consequences, including its spread around the world.
Let’s take a closer look at the key aspects:
1. Inflation and Monetary Policy
- High Inflation: Inflation in the U.S. has long remained above the target level of 2%, forcing the Federal Reserve (Fed) to take measures to contain it. The rapid increase in interest rates to fight inflation may slow economic growth, raising borrowing costs for businesses and consumers.
- Tight Monetary Policy: The Fed has raised interest rates to a level that many economists consider "restrictive," making it harder to access credit, reducing investment activity, and limiting consumer spending.
2. Labor Market Situation
- Labor Market Challenges: While the U.S. labor market has been strong for a long time (low unemployment, steady wage growth), there are signs that companies are starting to cut back on hiring, and layoffs are increasing. The reduction in jobs in the tech sector in late 2023 and early 2024 could be a precursor to slowing economic activity.
- Declining Productivity: In some industries, productivity is falling, which may indicate an overheated economy and a subsequent slowdown in activity.
3. Consumer Activity
- Rising Borrowing Costs: Higher interest rates are leading to increased costs for mortgages and consumer loans, which reduces spending. With 70% of the U.S. economy dependent on consumer spending, a decrease in activity could lead to a slowdown in GDP growth.
- Decline in Real Incomes: Despite wage growth, high inflation can erode real incomes, which limits consumption.
4. Geopolitical Factors and Instability
- Geopolitical Instability: A complex geopolitical environment is driving up costs for energy, food, and other key goods, which could negatively impact the U.S. economy.
- Supply Chain Issues: Supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic and geopolitical risks, although somewhat eased, continue to affect production processes and trade.
5. Debt Burden and Budgetary Issues
- Government Debt: U.S. debt continues to rise, and the government is struggling to service it in an environment of high interest rates. This increases fiscal pressure and reduces the ability to use budgetary stimulus in the event of a recession.
- Budgetary Constraints: The reduction in budget programs and fiscal stimulus introduced in response to the COVID-19 pandemic may also contribute to slowing economic activity.
6. Financial Markets
- Stock Market Volatility: Instability in financial markets and falling asset values can reduce household and investor wealth, leading to lower consumption and investment.
- Credit Risks: Rising interest rates may lead to an increase in loan defaults and debt obligations, worsening financial stability.
Forecast and Probability of a Recession
- According to estimates from many analysts and economists, the probability of a recession in the U.S. in 2024 remains high — around 50-60%, given current economic factors.
- The main risks are associated with the overly tight monetary policy of the Fed, geopolitical instability, and rising borrowing costs, which limit activity from both consumers and businesses.
- However, some economists believe that a soft landing (without a deep downturn) is possible if the Fed can balance inflation and economic growth.
Thus, the recession is confirmed.
$SPX | S&P500 Déjà Vu: 2011 vs 2024 Identical Fibonacci Fractal 2011 and 2024 price action is IDENTICAL
I charted this fractal over a week ago when SPX was trading 5415, however I did not share this chart publicly. Here it is:
2011:
2024:
The fractal suggests we would see a strong upward swing to the 127.2% extension @ 5815... so far so good.
Iconic Failed Bullish move on SPX?If the S&P500 gets rejected at this level, it has the power to be an iconic selloff.
Now before we get to “bear’d up ” understand the SPX is still holding above the key short term daily moving averages and holding higher lows. The long term trend is still up.
Now to go back to being bearish. This FOMC interest cut was a big 0.50 BP which is not what most were expecting.
The rate cut that everyone was so bulled up on ended up backfiring in the markets face. The market sold off and reversed lower. Historically this is a phenomenon we can observe throughout previous rate cutting cycles.
Along with a buy the rumour sell type of day, the candle formation om the SPX are appearing to be higher volume reversal candles. Today session almost completed bearishly engulfed yesterday’s session.
These 2 candles have also proceeded to be trading at New All Time Highs before failing to hold and reversing Lower.
Looking for the topIf the current level fails to resist the price the next possible top is ~5652.
Violet line is the trendline from two previous ATH which coincides with the expansion of the descending channel.
The End?Have the fed realized that the economy is broken? Is there something they don’t want to tell us? Why was there 818,000 jobs overstated in the data they ‘react’ to. What is the real data?
Consumer stocks are a more reliable barometer for how healthy the economy. Stocks from Dollar General, to Starbucks, to Nike and LVMH, the spending is weak.
Low income consumer - weak
Mid tier consumer - weak
High end consumers - weak
So did we get a 0.5% reduction because they have reacted too late and realized the economy has underlying weaknesses? Possibly so, they have done so in the past:
Looking at the history of recent cuts followed by crashes due to economic weakness:
2000-2001 - dot-com bubble
2007-2008 - Great financial crisis
Rate cuts were implemented in response to underlying economic issues. The market interpreted these cuts as confirmation that the Fed was worried about economic conditions, which led to panicked selling and eventual market crashes.
2024 - 2025 - the end of the grand supercycle due to massive rise in unemployment or do we get the continuation to more all time highs?
Nobody knows where we are just yet but there are clues to what will happen next, if you know what you’re looking at.
I do firmly believe we are in the 5th wave of a multi decade supercycle. When it ends, it will be very ugly. Stay tuned!
Did SPX just triple top on the 1.61 extension? 1.61 extensions can be a common level for false breakouts.
One of the times in which we know we can see 1.61 false breakouts is in Elliot wave 5.
This perhaps is reason we find so many 1.61 extensions at big highs.
We've been trading at this level for a while now. Tried to sell twice and now we have a wick after the news.
If this sells again, then we may have formed a triple top on the weekly at this big 1.61 level.
Can be a serious dump if that's the case. The termination of wave 5 would imply the spiking out of the 2022 low.
Fed decision had long been priced in - what's next ?It is said that the stock market looks 6 to 9 months ahead. This was probably the reason why today's decision by the Fed to cut interest rates by 0.5% did not cause a major realignment in the markets (so far).
It was a foregone conclusion that the Fed would begin to turn the tide on interest rates. However, it was unclear how big the move would be. Many economists had expected a smaller move of a quarter of a percentage point. The cut marks a turning point in interest rate policy: the Fed had been raising rates at a record-breaking pace since last March to combat stubbornly high inflation, most recently holding them in a range of 5.25 percent to 5.50 percent for more than a year.
SP500 Triple TopBears on the edge of their seats. Market seems indifferent to the rate cut. Look out below.
S&P 500 INDEX to 6000 before mid 2023Firstly a big thank you for taking me past the 10k likes on Tradingview. That’s a great milestone and tells me the ideas must be appreciated. If it is okay with you I’ll continue to share them freely.
As a thank you for taking my ideas past this milestone I want to share the idea that will challenge 95% of those reading. You will just not believe what is about to happen in the following 6-9 months. Use this idea as a cheat code to take you to the 5% club.
It is highly probable the market will rip higher and I’m betting on a new all time high before the middle of next year in the area of 6000. Then we can have our recession.
Still reading? Or have you gone straight to the comments for some club 95% ‘you mad bro’ comments?
What’s the evidence? There’s technical and fundamental. Firstly the technical on the above weekly chart:
1) A ‘great buy’ signal has printed. Look left.
2) Every year that ends with a ‘2’ for the last 70 years has beautiful symmetry with its roots in pi-cycle theory, but I’ll not go into that here, just accept it.
Each of the annual charts below are the last 70 years with years ending in a ‘2’ with the vertical lines approximately identifying a 12 month window.
1952 -
1962 -
1972 -
1982 -
1992 -
2002 -
2012 -
And finally 2022 - see a pattern?
The Fundamentals
1) Mid-term elections - the FED will not crash the market with up and coming mid-term elections. They never have in the above years.
2) Insider trading - The people making the decisions / your glorious leaders, they are actually buying the dip:
“U.S. House speaker Pelosi discloses trades in Apple and Microsoft”
Source: www.reuters.com
This is not an isolated event.
3) Sentiment is at the lowest it has been for 40 years! Not even 2008 comes close. People are so bearish right now that it is actually bullish.
4) The Put / Call ratio. The number of retail traders ‘short’ on the market is at levels not seen since August 2020. Remember then? The world was ending then too.
5) The ‘Put/Call’ ratio is printing bearish divergence just as it was back in August 2020. The market ripped higher afterwards.
Well that’s it - Hope you enjoyed, this took some hours of study and preparation.
Ww
Type: trade
Risk: <=6% of portfolio
Timeframe: 6 to 9 months
Return: 50-80%
S&P 500 INDEX (^SPX) short term outlookThe S&P 500 is trading within an upward price channel, indicated by the parallel trendlines. The index is nearing a potential breakout above key resistance near 5650, where previous attempts to breach this level were rejected. The price is currently at 5638.73, with Bollinger Bands showing a squeeze, suggesting increased volatility ahead.
A breakout above 5650 could lead to a rally towards the target zone between 5800 and 5900, shown in the chart. The moving averages are aligned to support bullish momentum, but caution should be taken if the price fails to break the resistance, as this may result in a pullback to the 5500 support area.
In the short term, traders should watch for increased volume and confirmation above 5700 for a potential continuation to higher levels. A failure to break out could signal consolidation or a move back toward lower trendline support.
FOMC Preview & Trade PlansA quick video going over what levels I'm watching and what I expect heading into today's FOMC decision and Powell presser.
How prepared are you for the outcome from FOMC today?Hello traders!
I see one of three possible decisions being made today:
Highest probability, 25bp rate cute
Low probability, 50bp rate cut
Low probability, no change (they did say over many months how committed they were to 2% inflation).
These 3 possible decisions can have multiple outcomes.
25bp rate cut : Market moves in the current direction (up for assets/crypto etc)
50bp rate cut : Market turns heavy bullish
No change : get ready for a very cold and painful winter and QE to turn the market back around in 3-6 months from now.
How are you preparing for these three possible outcomes strategically and mentally?
Here is my play:
I have bets for the long side, so if a bullish outcome happens, I'm ready to take my profits at my targets
And if there is no change and we see a crash over the next few months, I'm mentally prepared and will embrace that outcome with a smile on my face and get ready to buy again at the next bottom once the FED unleashes QE.
There is one last rare possible outcome: selling the news type of event. We could see a sharp decline over the next few weeks, but it will be all very bullish. There could be an attempt to mark down the prices to get folks to sell so they can buy.
Let's play smart and be prepared mentally. Trading is just like any other sport; it's a mental game.
Good luck to everyone today, and green pips to you 🤑
Bulls Bears zone for 09-18-2024Today being Fed day, markets might trade in a range until in the afternoon.
Level to watch: 5702 --- 5704
Reports to watch:
US FOMC Announcement : 2 PM ET
US Fed Chair Press Conference 2:30 PM ET
Supply loaing set-upS&P 500
Price is in an uptrend which is taken as a pullback of price to the recent swing high at 5 653 which formed our swing low at 5 392.3. It must be noted that price returned to this daily supply area within 30 days and we see a reversal candle close which spiked the all-time high and closed back within the supply area. A close above this swing high will invalidate our sell set-up and a further rally in price is expected. The DXY will play a vital role in signalling the flow of money as equities are high risk assets and currencies are low risk assets and gold is a safe heaven, therefore a drop in Gold will cause the equities to drop as well.
Trading Near the Bells Part 2: The CloseIn this second part of our series, we shift focus from the market open to the close—the final hour of the trading session. The dynamics of the close are different from the open because the time to act is much shorter. Unlike the open, where you have the whole trading day ahead of you, the close compresses decisions into a much tighter window. This makes the strategies and the mindset for trading the close unique.
In this section, we'll cover two core strategies for trading the close—one momentum-based and one focused on mean reversion. Whether you're riding the final burst of a trend or capitalising on an overextended market move, these setups can help you navigate this high-stakes period effectively.
The Significance of the Close
The final hour of trading—the "Power Hour" —is dominated by institutional traders and large funds rebalancing their portfolios, closing positions, or placing large end-of-day orders. Retail traders often close out positions as well, creating an environment where liquidity spikes and volatility increases. This surge in activity can lead to significant price swings, especially in individual stocks with strong intraday trends or overextended moves.
What happens during this period can set the stage for the next day’s market action. If the close is strong, closing at or near the high of the day, it suggests that buyers were in control and may continue pushing prices higher the following day. Conversely, a weak close at the low could signal selling pressure carrying over into the next session.
Two Key Strategies for Trading the Close
We’ll explore two strategies tailored for this critical time frame. These setups are designed to take advantage of the distinct characteristics of the close: heightened volatility, fast price action, and end-of-day positioning.
Strategy 1: Run into the Close (Momentum)
The "Run into the Close" strategy tends to work well on days where the market has been trending strongly. This strategy takes advantage of the final surge in momentum as large traders and funds push prices even further in the direction of the trend.
This is particularly effective if the market is breaking out from several days of price compression. The idea is to enter on a pullback in the final hour and ride the momentum into the close.
Setup:
• Look for an established trend during the trading session, with price ideally breaking out of multi-day consolidation.
• Watch for a small pullback in the last hour, ideally to the 9-EMA on the 5-minute chart.
• Wait for price to break back above the 9-EMA after the pullback.
Entry:
• Enter following the break back above the 9-EMA on the 5-minute candle chart.
Stop-Loss:
• Place your stop below the low of the pullback.
Trade Management:
• Use the 9-EMA for dynamic risk management—if price closes below it, consider exiting early.
Target:
• Hold the position until just before the close, capturing the final push of momentum.
Example: The S&P 500 had been trending up all day, breaking out from a tight multi-day consolidation. During the last hour of trading, the market pulls back briefly, touches the 9-EMA, and then breaks back above it. This is your entry signal, allowing you to ride the trend into the final minutes of the session.
S&P 500 5min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Strategy 2: Revert to VWAP (Mean Reversion)
The "Revert to VWAP" strategy is a mean-reversion play that tends to work well when the market is overextended going into the last hour of trading. Often, prices can move too far from the day's volume-weighted average price (VWAP), and late in the session, there is a tendency for price to revert back toward it.
This strategy uses the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to identify overbought or oversold conditions and then waits for a break of recent swing highs or lows on a 5-minute chart to trigger the entry.
Setup:
• Look for an overextended market going into the final hour of trading. The price should be far away from VWAP.
• Check RSI on a 5-minute chart for overbought (above 70) or oversold (below 30) conditions.
• Wait for price to break above a recent swing high (for a reversal from oversold) or below a swing low (for a reversal from overbought).
Entry:
• Enter a long position if the price breaks above a swing high (from oversold conditions).
• Enter a short position if the price breaks below a swing low (from overbought conditions).
Stop-Loss:
• Place your stop just below the recent swing low (for long positions) or above the recent swing high (for short positions).
Target:
• Target VWAP as the price reverts back toward the average.
Example: As we approached the final hour of the day, the S&P 500 index had moved into an oversold position on the RSI when it tested a key level of swing support. This was followed by a break above a small swing high – triggering a move back towards the true average price for the day – VWAP.
S&P 500 5min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Conclusion
Whether you’re aiming to ride the trend with a "Run into the Close" or seeking to capitalise on an overextended market with a "Revert to VWAP" strategy, trading the final hour requires sharp execution and discipline.
Even if you don’t trade the close directly, understanding how the market finishes the day can provide valuable insights for the next session. Watch how the price closes in relation to the day’s range, as this can set the tone for the following day’s market sentiment.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83.51% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
SPX: Danger level aheadFor sure we will get a drop in S&P these day's, but how big will it be ? At the best it is going to be a rebalancing from large cap so small (as suggested by Tom Lee), but tumbling down to 5350 an below should result a correction till 4300 range (till next summer) when the extend of the recession should be visible. On soft landing up to 15000 in 2030 ?
