SPX trying to create a lower high. Intraday Update: The SPX is stalling at the 88% retracement near 5629 and trying to create a lower high. Bulls will have to be very careful this week if we can't break the 5660 level.
US500.PRO.OTMS trade ideas
SPx / US Investors Eye Fed as Larger Rate Cut LoomsUS Equity Investors Focus on Monetary Policy as Larger Rate Cut Becomes Likely Scenario
This week, U.S. equity investors will closely monitor the Federal Reserve's commentary and interest rate forecasts, with a 50 basis-point cut now emerging as the most probable policy move.
According to the FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 50 basis-point cut on September 18 has surged to 59% as of early Monday, up from 30% a week ago, following the inflation data released on September 11 and 12. The remaining 41% likelihood now points to a 25 basis-point cut, down from 70% the previous week.
S&P 500 Technical Analysis:
As long as the price trades under 5643 will drop to get 5584, Otherwise should break 5643 by closifn 4h candle above it to get 5675 and more,
Key Levels:
Pivot Line: 5616
Resistance Levels: 5643, 5675, 5709
Support Levels: 5600, 5584, 5525
Trend:
- Consolidation 5643 - 5584
- Upward above 5643
- Downward below 5628
Sell OpportunityTrading Signal: S&P 500 Index
Action: Sell
Entry Price: 5633.00
Take Profit: 5448.00
Stop Loss: 5720.00
Rationale: The S&P 500 index is currently positioned for a sell trade based on technical analysis indicating potential downside momentum. The entry point is set at 5633.00, with a take-profit target of 5448.00 and a stop-loss at 5720.00 to manage risk.
Disclaimer: Trading signals are for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Traders are advised to conduct their own analysis and consider risk management strategies before executing trades.
BTC vs. S&P500
I want to give you a view on if the S&P500 is outperforming or if it is Bitcoin. In my view the S&P500 will outperform BTC for a few months and then BTC will get stronger in the bearish swing phases , in between. But not now. Look at the higher lows and higher highs and at the green box and on the red box. Sellers are still in control, but buyers seem a lot stronger.
#US500 1DAYTrade Recommendation: SELL Opportunity for US500 Index
SELL Level:5650
Target Levels: 5500, 5600, 5200
Description:
The US500 index, representing the top 500 large-cap U.S. companies, is currently trading around the 5650 level. This level presents a strategic opportunity to sell, as technical and market indicators suggest a potential downturn.
Rationale:
Technical Indicators: The index has recently approached resistance levels, showing signs of overbought conditions. Historical data suggests that similar resistance levels have often preceded corrective moves.
Market Sentiment: Current economic data and market sentiment indicate potential headwinds, which could lead to a decline in the index.
Risk-Reward Ratio: Selling at 5650 offers a favorable risk-reward profile, with potential downside targets at 5500, 5600, and a more extended target at 5200.
Targets:
1.5500: Short-term target where initial profit-taking can be considered.
2. 5600: Intermediate level that could offer a partial exit or adjustment of positions.
3. 5200: Extended target for those with a longer-term bearish outlook, providing a substantial profit opportunity.
Risk Management:
Stop-Loss: Implement a stop-loss above the 5650 level to manage potential adverse price movements.
Position Sizing: Ensure appropriate position sizing to mitigate risk and align with your trading strategy.
Carefully monitor market conditions and adjust the strategy as needed to align with evolving trends and data.
SPX500 H4 | Falling to overlap supportSPX500 is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 5,563.51 which is an overlap support.
Stop loss is at 5,490.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 5,655.91 which is a swing-high resistance.
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SPX: on a verge of new ATHAfter the S&P 500 had the worst week in 2024, two weeks ago, the previous week brought the best week in 2024. This is how swift the investors sentiment has changed at the current moment. The index started the week at the level of 5.438 and reached its highest weekly level at Friday's trading session at 5.626. By gaining around 4% for the week, the index is currently only 1% lower from it's all-time highest levels. Aside from tech companies and semiconductor industry, this week utilities and industrials were also in the spotlight of the market.
Published US inflation figures pushed the investors sentiment higher in expectation that the Fed now has a clear case for the first rate cut. The inflation is clearly on a down path, reaching the level of 2,5% y/y in August. Investors are perceiving that the environment of lower interest rates would help the industries in the US to increase earnings, and they are adjusting their positions accordingly. The FOMC meeting is scheduled for 19th September, where some increased volatility and market nervousness might be expected. Certainly, the Fed's decision will impact the course of equity markets during the third quarter. After the FOMC meeting its is going to be known if the S&P 500 is heading toward the fresh new ATH.
Bearish reversal?S&P500 is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 5,673.69
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 5,738.69
Why we like it:
There is a resistance level at the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 5,548.54
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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$SPX A +100% winning setup last friday The top of the implied move, based on the previous night's (Thursday) close, was 5635, and that is exactly where we saw resistance. So if you sold 5635/ 5645 bear call spread's with me on Friday then congratulations on the winning trade. And that level was also right in the middle of the down gap that we started the month with. This chart set up is from my video on Thursday before fridays Trading session.
This week, the FOMC decision on Wednesday is pivotal. The market has eagerly awaited this moment all year, expecting a rate cut. However, caution is advised: the market might have already priced in not just one, but several future cuts. Remember, rate cuts often signal economic instability, aimed at mitigating further economic damage and easing pressure on struggling sectors. Stay vigilant; a rate cut isn't always bullish.
Historically, rate cuts can precede market downturns if they indicate deeper economic issues. The market's reaction to Fed's actions this week could be volatile.
SP - Unexpected comebackThe S&P 500 was signaling a potential double top on the weekly timeframe, accompanied by a lower RSI—a highly bearish indicator. From a macroeconomic perspective, recession risks are also mounting.
However, last week saw an unexpected and significant rally, which could potentially negate even the most bearish signals. Overall, I'm still neutral on this one.
Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #5 | SPX Triple Top or Rocket?SPX came roaring back once again after the drop in the first week of September, much like August. The question now is do we get another rejection or a new ATH? I believe we'll find out soon enough as we have one of the most anticipated FOMC decisions in years this week. We've seen some extreme volatility since the beginning of August and I expect it to continue.
If you ask me, this cut will mark the beginning of the US recession that I believe will be much worse than anything we've seen in modern times. Some folks like Jamie Dimon are warning of that possibility as well, but many others are saying the opposite. The market may not tank immediately, if ever. So it's important to stick to the charts during times like these. I'd be cautious this week, but after the dust settles we should have a good idea of where things stand.
I remain in the bearish camp, but I'll be looking for longs if we rip past ATH this week. I'll be quick to stop out in the case we end up rejecting quickly back below for a big fakeout/bull trap. I currently have puts targeting August and April lows first, with a stop above ATH. The back half of September historically has seen the worst returns in each year. The first rate cut and yield curve inversion flip have also historically marked major market tops and recessions. It should be an interesting fall either way, hopefully with a lot of opportunity.
Market Indecision 2024! (Diamond Reversal)It has been an interesting few years in the markets. One of the hottest bull runs coming off the Pandemic lows to a 7 month bear market in 2022, followed by another epic bull run! We are now at a major decision point for markets. Up or Down! Recession fears abound while small caps are ready to pop waiting on rate cuts. The S&P as lopsided as ever with Mag 7 carrying the entire index for 2 years. Where are we going next?
At every "potential" market top, the convergence between an ascending channel meets a potential descending channel forming a diamond shaped pattern. This pattern is the indecision point of any given market, but don't get bearish yet. A diamond reversal pattern can break in either direction, reversal or continuation .
I have documented both the historical moves and the future potential paths. Remember that markets are not pre-ordained to do anything. They have to make decisions, and while you may have already decided your personal view, you can let the market confirm your biases one step at a time.
React! Don't predict!
1) Halfway mark from 10/23 run to $6000 target
-4/19 bottom starts 2nd leg
-Bull Flag Consolidation
2) Diamond Reversal (Minor)
-Rate cuts? Yes/No
-And Why? Economy vs Inflation
**Upside Breakout on 9/13
3) Rate cuts hinted for Sep FOMC
-Halted 38% run from 10/23
-Halted 62% run from 10/22
4) Required drop to form minor/major diamond of indecision.
-Blamed on Japanese Carry Trade*
-Note the drop is perfect 78.6% retrace from 4/19 Run
*Japanese Carry Trade margin collapse was instead caused by formation.
**This was also opportunistic early rotation into treasuries.
5) Bullish rejection of minor diamond
-Resilient CPI and Jobs provide cover for soft landing narrative.
-Note the rejection confirms on diamond neutral line @ 38.2% 4/19 fib and healthy 20WMA bounce
6) Rate Cuts!!!
-Rate cut odds are near equal between .25 vs .50
-Note a rejection confirms Double Top
-Breakout confirms $6000
7) Blow off top!!!
-Note the identical pattern to 2022 top
*The Ancient Trendline is based on a back-dated creation of the S&P 500 by Standard & Poors as the index was founded in 1957
8) Bullish Ascending Channel starts in Jun-Oct 2022
-A short break here confirms new bearish descending channel and major diamond reversal.
-This will be your bearish hint towards bearish 2025 but don't short yet!!
-No break confirms ascending channel but EOY will give one more opportunity for a break.
9) End of Year typical Tax Loss Harvesting, Santa Rally, etc.
-Unlikely to see a bullish breakout here
-If Continuation occurs, it will be Jan into Feb
10) Last chance for Bears!
-Need bearish breakdown to confirm both diamond and descending channel
11) Descension confirmation marks several opportunities on path down for bullish break outs
-Initial Support @ $4800 (20% drop from top)
-Secondary Support @ $4450 (25% drop from top)
-Massive Support @ $4144 (30% drop from top)
Best of luck in 2025 whatever you decide! Game on!
Elliot wavesI have a measurement that shows me that the correction will continue based on the Fibonacci and Elliott wave, the entry is strictly where I show you and even better if it has made a pull back, if in case it breaks the peak on the top left then it is very likely that we have continuation, but this is what my measurements show me, which is a more unlikely scenario
thank you for participating in my idea
SP500 Index Analysis on 4H and Daily Time Frames- Day swing is bearish => current pullback.
- 4H swing is bearish => Current pullback.
- The current price is in the supply zone of the 4 hour time frame so we can look for selling opportunities in this zone.
Which Presidential Term Year is the Most Profitable?An intriguing question from a recent client call led me to dive into the data. Here's what I uncovered about the relationship between presidential term years and stock market returns.
The Analysis
Data: Historical SPX (S&P 500) returns
Grouping: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th years of presidential terms
Visualization: Each line represents returns for a specific term year
Color Key
1st year: Red
2nd year: Orange
3rd year: Green
4th year: Yellow
Total SPX: White
Combined 1st + 3rd years: Purple
Key Findings
The Winner: 3rd Year The third year of presidential terms significantly outperforms others, beating 2nd and 4th years by a notable margin.
Runner-up: 1st Year Surprisingly, the first year takes second place. Perhaps the optimism surrounding a new presidency plays a role?
Underperformers: 2nd and 4th Years 2nd years appear relatively uneventful. 4th years (election years) show more volatility, likely due to electoral uncertainty.
Combined Power of 1st and 3rd Years The purple line (1st + 3rd years combined) closely tracks the total SPX return (white line), suggesting these two years drive a significant portion of overall market gains.
Important Notes
Not every year within each category showed positive returns.
The analysis reveals average trends, not guarantees for future performance.
Food for Thought
How might this insight influence long-term investment strategies?
What factors could explain the 3rd year's outperformance?
Does this pattern hold true across different economic cycles or administrations?
What's your take on this analysis? Does it shift your perspective on market cycles or political terms?
Weekly 'composite index' RSI signals sell - 2000 repeat coming?Combined market indices divided by DXY has accurately signaled market expansion and contraction for more than 30 years. In the 'Internet Bubble' timeframe, although a RSI sell signal occurred, the market regained lost ground in 2000 prior to a multi-year sell-off. We see a similar run-up, sell signal, recovery now.
Is this time different? Or will we see a decline beginning January-February 2025.
More upside for SPX500USDHi traders,
It's like magic! Last week I said it was decision time for SPX500USD because if it wanted to go up it had to do it from the Daily FVG.
And what happened? It did exactly that! So did you make some profit?
For next week we could see a correction down and more upside for this pair.
Trade idea: Wait for a correction down and after that a change in orderflow to bullish again to trade longs.
If you want to learn more about wave analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a like and respectful comment.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide signals.
Don't be emotional, just trade!
Eduwave
SP500 Index Forecasted (Timeframe H4)Salam and Good Day,
This is my personal opinion for educational purposes only.
This is the S&P 500 (SP500) Index in a 4-hour timeframe. Let’s analyze the key components and forecast the possible next move:
Key Observations:
Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
The chart displays key Fibonacci retracement levels from a recent high of around 5,677.69 down to a recent low of 5,108.02.
The price has retraced and is currently sitting between the 50% (5,470.41) and 61.8% (5,555.19) retracement levels. These levels are crucial for determining possible resistance and support points in a trending market.
Trendlines:
An orange uptrend line from earlier in the year was broken in August. This break may have signalled the start of the downtrend visible in recent weeks.
A downward-sloping trendline (gray) is present, marking lower highs, indicating that the broader market might still be in a corrective or consolidation phase.
Current Price: The price is trading around 5,627, just below the 5,650 level, which is near the 61.8% Fibonacci level (5,555.19). This area could act as significant resistance to further upward movement.
MACD Indicator:
The MACD is showing relatively weak momentum, with the histogram bars slightly rising but not strongly indicating a trend reversal yet. This suggests that while a short-term upward movement has occurred, the overall market sentiment might still be in flux.
My Forecast:
Bullish Scenario:
If the price can break above the 61.8% Fibonacci level (5,555) and close above 5,650, we could see further upward movement targeting the recent highs around 5,677.69.
A breakout above this resistance zone may result in a continuation of the uptrend.
Bearish Scenario:
If the price fails to hold above 5,650 and the 61.8% Fibonacci level, rejection may occur, pushing the price lower.
The next support to watch would be around 50% Fibonacci retracement (5,470), followed by stronger support at 38.2% (5,384.88).
A fall below 5,470 could lead to a further decline, testing 5,279.07 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement).
Next level to be closely monitor :
Monitor the 5,555 - 5,650 resistance zone closely. A decisive close above this range with strong volume would confirm bullish strength.
A rejection at current levels could indicate a resumption of the downtrend, potentially leading to a retracement to lower Fibonacci levels.
Thanks
Mustaqim Mazuky
Independent Trader/Investor
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 13, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Throughout the trading sessions of the current week, the S&P 500 Index has exhibited notable resilience, demonstrating a movement toward the Mean Resistance level of 5648 and the Key Resistance, and completed the Inner Index Rally level of 5666. A resilient rebound to this level in the upcoming week’s session is highly likely, with the possibility of further movement to the subsequent Inner Index Rally at 5739. Conversely, an anticipated downward movement toward the targeted Mean Support level of 5557 is expected upon achieving a resilient rebound.
SPX & Bitcoin Correlation & US presidential election #Spx 1D chart;
Let me first talk about the importance of the S&P 500 chart;
They are positively correlated (i.e. they move together):
*#Nasdaq100
*#Oil
*#Bitcoin (sometimes)
Now, what I want to draw your attention to is that just before the presidential elections, in September and October, there was always a decline. After the elections, there has been a continuous upward trend in the first 100 days.
Not counting the 2008 world economic crisis, this has never changed in the last 3 elections. Even after the 2008 crisis, after falling for a while, it started to rise immediately afterwards. The data we are evaluating here is the first 100 days.
In September 2024, I indicated the decline with an orange circle
With a decline in October, a long-term uptrend may begin.
If Bitcoin also shows a correlation here, which is my expectation as in the #Btc chart I drew earlier, we will start a permanent uptrend after suffering for another 1 month.
SP500 end of first 100 days data after the US Presidential election:
Post 2020 Election (Joe Biden): +17%
Post 2016 Election (Donald Trump): +10%
After 2012 Election (Barack Obama - Second Term): +10%
After 2008 Election (Barack Obama - First Term): -19%
Fed’s Rate Decision to Set the Tone for Stocks, Gold and CryptoOfficials at the central bank are staying tight-lipped over the magnitude of the interest rate cut. What we know so far: there will be one. What we don’t know: is it going to be 25bps or 50bps?
Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell (or JPow if you’re a cool kid) is most likely having a hard time sleeping these days. Lurking in the near distance, September 18 to be precise, is a decision he should make that has the power to slosh trillions of dollars across global markets.
Stock valuations, crypto prices and the glow of gold all hinge on a single figure — the US interest rate ( USINTR ). Major central banks are on the move to unwind their restrictive monetary policies, especially when it comes to global interest rates . Investors have been trying to run ahead of the interest rate decision and position their portfolios to accommodate both a small casual trim to borrowing costs but also a bigger, juicier slash.
Clashing opinions over the size of the interest rate reduction have been swaying the financial markets in recent weeks. Fed officials haven’t sent out any comms regarding that question so markets do what they do best — speculate.
According to the FedWatch tool by CME Group, at the end of this week, investors were nearly even in their expectations for the upcoming interest rate cut with 55% calling for a 25bps (basis points) cut and 45% rooting for the fuller treatment of 50bps.
In any case, this would be the Federal Reserve’s first cut to borrowing costs in more than four years. The benchmark rate in the US is currently sitting at a 23-year high of 5.5% — a level that has stayed flat since July.
After a series of reports pointing to a wobbling economy — and on the back of mostly receding inflation — the central banking clique issued its uplifting guidance at their previous meeting, saying rates are about to go down when they meet again. But what they didn’t say — because they’re data dependent — is how much.
A 25bps cut to interest rates would most likely be already priced in across the spectrum. Stocks, the US dollar, gold and even cryptocurrency are now acting as if this level of rate cut is factored in. Moreover, some investors might even be disappointed to see a rate cut of that casual magnitude. Buy the rumor, sell the news, maybe?
A 50bps cut to interest rates could bring some needed fuel for the next leg up in stocks, gold and crypto. And, on the flip side, knock the dollar’s valuation.
Lower interest rates make money more affordable, enticing investors, businesses and consumers to get more cash out of the bank and spend more freely on big-ticket purchases. Obviously, investors shove the cash into various markets. Businesses expand operations and build new products. And consumers, well, they buy the new iPhone 16 and jam what's left in meme stocks ?
Perhaps even more importantly, lower interest rates help steer the economy, keeping it on an upward trajectory. Liquidity improves, because there’s more money flowing in the system, and valuations of public and private assets usually increase.
Take gold ( XAU/USD ), for example. Gold hit an all-time high Friday morning, pumping above $2,570 per ounce . Driving the gains was the relationship between gold and the prospects of lower rates, which make bullion more appealing because they reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. At the same time, the US dollar loses some of its allure because the reduction in rates triggers a lower yield on dollar deposits.
Bitcoin ( BTC/USD ) is another interest -ing candidate to join the rate interplay. The OG token has been increasingly correlated to macroeconomic factors and the rate decision is already seen impacting its price in a positive way.
Stocks have been in choppy trading mode over the past couple of months largely due to the looming uncertainty about the looming rate-setting meeting.
So what do you think it’s going to be — 25bps or 50bps? And how would it affect financial markets? Shoot your thoughts below!
