SPX trendlines from back in 1929 - Crash?Simple remakable trendlines back from the 1929 peak. Is there a major resistance in the S&P500 and stock markets?
US500.PRO.OTMS trade ideas
S&P500 v USD since 2008. Cheap dollar guarantees stock expansionThis is a cross chart analysis between the S&P500 index (SPX) and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) since the 2008 Housing Crisis. Ahead of widely anticipated Fed rate cut next month, it is useful to see how the Dollar has impacted from its perspective the stock market on a multi-year basis.
As you can see, the DXY has been trading within a Channel Up since the 2009 Housing Crisis bottom. At the moment it is under the Resistance of the Lower Highs trend-line (dashed) and a rate cut should apply even stronger selling pressure and keep it under. There is still some wayt to go until it hits the bottom of the Channel Up again.
We believe that the stock market is at the point where it finishes the recovery phase (blue Arc) and will enter the expansion phase (green Channel Up), at the beginning of next year. As a result, a rate cut and as a matter of fact a series of rate cuts by the Fed, will do wonders on S&P500, giving investors steady long-term opportunities to buy low and sell high within a strictured Channel.
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Next months up or down?If tomorrow forming Dragonfly Doji probably we will see long bearish. If tomorrow forming nice hammer then going up.
S&P500 Sets a new target for 2024Logic; Reacent correction with pessimism created more energy for the bulls
We are in 'C' wave of final blow up, 6100 is reachable before nov'24
Happy BULLS
Bulls and Bears zone for 08-29-2024S&P is trying to rally during ETH session.
Any test of yesterday's High could provide direction for the day.
Level to watch: 5626 ---5624
Reports to watch:
Pending Home Sales Index 10 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
End of the Era for S&P?Higher degree waves have been plotted here.
Are we in the distribution area now?
This is question we need to find the answer for.
Regards
SPX500 Local Short!SPX500 has hit a horizontal
Resistance level of 5637.19
And we are already seeing a
Bearish reaction so we will
Be expecting a further
Bearish correction !
S&P 500 Set for Downward Trend as Investors Eye Economic DataStocks Rise Before the Open as Investors Await U.S. Economic Data
S&P 500 Technical Analysis:
The price recently Rejected its support zone and has subsequently rebounded, indicating a potential retest.
The current outlook suggests that as long as the price remains below 5620, a bearish trend is likely to develop, to 5584. A break below this level could trigger a more substantial bearish move.
Conversely, if the price stabilizes above 5620, it may rise to 5644, and sustaining above 5644 could lead to a move towards an all-time high (ATH).
Today's GDP data release is anticipated to have a negative impact on the indices if the figures do not meet expectations.
Key Levels:
Pivot Line: 5620
Resistance Levels: 5644, 5675, 5709
Support Levels: 5584, 5525, 5491
Expected Trading Range for Today: The price is likely to fluctuate between 5644 and 5525.
Trend: Downward Movement
US500 - SWING SHORT ideaPrice made a false breakout of the previous week high with a strong bearish reaction. Also, the start of the new week will probably be manipulation with distribution lower.
A great sign of weakness is when the new week candle open, makes a false run on one side with a a sweep of liquidity (many traders are trapped), and then distributes on the true side.
Record Money Funds: Wall Street Breathes CautionMoney funds have reached an all-time high of $6.24 trillion in assets, evidencing investor caution in the face of an uncertain economic environment. Despite recommendations to rotate into longer duration bonds due to impending interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, many investors and companies are keeping their capital in money market funds for safety, with 60% of this capital coming from corporate treasuries that avoid investing in capex due to uncertainty.
In the US, the market is closely following the release of second quarter GDP, a crucial piece of data that could directly impact the performance of the S&P 500, which has recently shown volatility. Losses on Wall Street continue, with the S&P 500 closing the last session down 0.6%, reflecting the uncertainty dominating the market. The current highs are at 5,672.72 points, while the most recent price closed at 5,581.63 points. The checkpoint is at 5,473.73 points, and the relative strength index (RSI) indicates slight overbought at 56.51%. Today, jobless claims data and statements from FOMC members are expected, which could influence investors' expectations and the future direction of the S&P 500. If the index manages to please investors we could see a further piercing of the current high, if this does not happen it is possible that the price will fall back to the POC zone which coincides with the range that has formed since early June.
Meanwhile, in Europe, the Eurogroup will meet to assess the continent's economic situation, and any statement could alter the perception of economic stability. Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies remain highly volatile, and gold and coffee futures continue to move noticeably. This overall picture keeps investors in a defensive posture, seeking safe havens while closely watching every piece of economic and financial data that could influence global markets. With the previous day's positive closing of the main European markets the CAC40, DAX, IBEX35, FTSE MIB and EUROSTOXX50 except for the FTSE 100 which closed with losses.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
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All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
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SPX Just about to start the bear.Looking at the day we are as bearish as we can begin to be.
pay attention to what happens next.
S&P 500 / Toward ATH then Dropping S&P 500 Technical Analysis:
The S&P tries to get their ATH and then will start a bearish trend if it can stabilize under 5675 or 5709. It will get 5584 and then should break 5584 to be a strong bearish trend this week.
Otherwise, if the price stabilizes above 5675 it will touch 5709, and stabilizing above 5709 will start a new bullish area
Key Levels:
Pivot Line: 5620
Resistance Levels: 5644, 5675, 5709
Support Levels: 5584, 5525, 5491
Expected Trading Range for Today: The price will fluctuate between 5584 and 5675.
Current Trend: First movement bullish to ATH and then bearish starting
S&P500 Why the volatility shouldn't scare you.Five months ago (March 21, see chart below), we published a comparison analysis on the S&P500 index (SPX), warning of a medium-term correction but at the same time setting a long-term 6500 Target:
As you can see, the fractal comparison of March 2024 with March 2017 worked very well and this is why the recent July - August correction shouldn't scare you. The 2022 - 2024 sequence continues to replicate to a solid degree the 2015 - 2017 period, which after holding both the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and testing and bouncing on the 1.786 Fibonacci extension, it rallied towards the 3.0 Fib.
Check also how similar the 1W RSI sequences are within the two fractals. At the moment we are just past the RSI Double Bottom formation (August 14 2017 and August 05 2024 respectively), which should initiate a rally that will peak deep into the overbought zone in Q1 2025.
As a result, our long-term Target of 6500 is intact, and as the title says, the volatility shouldn't scare you and make you diverge from the long-term goal and perspective.
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S&P 500 HEAD AND SHOULDER BUY ANALYSISHere on S&P 500 price has formed a head and shoulder round 5609.44 and is likely to continue buying so going for LONG is needed and targeting profit should be around 5682.41 . Use money management
Yield curve Before Hyperinflation (QE US BONDS) BTC & SPY
The global bond market is what dictates the liquidity to stocks, its what dictates the world its what starts wars and its what ends wars.
Currently I see many post focused on "recession" "market crash" when the giant elephant in the room is the global bond market and the US reserve dollar that is currently in danger.
Why must we start foreign sanctions and battles with a country beginning with R? its very simple. There's a fight for the dollars survival. Covid 19 pushed the FRED past the point of no return and there is no going back to the structured system that was already falling apart.
Treasury Interest is now getting at dangerous levels of unpayable amounts, Government Debt is rising by the trillions in a parabolic move that is getting steeper by the month.
What has to happen?
The FRED will force the US power to globally cut rates in all major economies while the FRED also has to start cutting back to zero while halting the fall of the DXY
(forcing military action on other countries who do not cut rates and hinder their local currency)
The last time in history something like this has happened was during the 1927-1931 period of discount rate blunders.
US CPI is indicating we have entered a new stage of no turning back and this is the danger of printing money, QE will be forced in the nature of Yield Curve Control and the excess liquidity and currency will debase the markets violently in an upward notion, following this people will end up panicking being on the sidelines entering the market with heavy leverage and borrowed funds at lower rates.
This is a type of scenario that would collapse Rome, Would end the Soviet Union. Expect dangerous policies, socialist developments, anti ownership, sparks of new wars.
Only when you price this event in something like Bitcoin you can then re evaluate how much money will have to be printed to keep up this momentum without causing a depression with unemployment rates sky rocking and the Government defaulting on the debt.
SNP500 / SPX🔍 SPX/USDT Analysis: Daily Timeframe 📉
SELL IT!
The SPX chart on a daily timeframe highlights significant upcoming dates where price movements may present trading opportunities. These should be analyzed in conjunction with higher timeframes for a comprehensive market view.
• September 3, 2024 - Red Line: This date marks a potential local peak. Traders might consider this as a moment to take profits or reduce exposure, as the price could encounter resistance or a downturn.
• December 6, 2024 - Red Line: This date is another potential local peak, signaling a possible moment to exit positions before a downturn.
When working with this daily timeframe, remember to evaluate these movements within the context of the broader market trend, considering higher timeframes for a more global perspective.
Note: The exact timing of these phases can vary by +/- a few days. All times are based on UTC-7 (Los Angeles).
S&P vs Bitcoin. So this is how it happens.Daily chart of the ratio between %SPX index and BITSTAMP:BTCUSD , bitcoins price.
Lines: 3 Moving Averages: 200 day SMA, 50 day SMA and 20 day SMA
All 3 MA's intersect on today's candle.
If its random, how rare is that?
If its not random, what does it mean?
Previous cases are marked with a white pointing finger.
(tnx to @warrenbuffettdemicasa and 'stocks and indexs chat" for comments)
SPX MONTHLY CHARTSPX index seems to be running on 5th wave of cycle degree. After it goes up for sometime 5th wave will be completed and it will make a-b-c correction afterwards. For now it seems to create new high.
S&P500 Consolidation Phase Towards The UptrendHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring US500 for a buying opportunity around 5540 zone, SPX is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 5540 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
My Stock Market Crash FantasyOn the left we see 29 trading days from peak. On the right we see 29 trading days from peak before the historical stock market crash of 1987.
It is a stock market crash fantasy because huge stock market crashes are very rare events that are most likely not to occur.
That being said, IF a crash is going to occur it would more than likely *only* start very soon after an extreme rally up.
Secondly, if it is going to occur in a manner similar to the 1987 and 1929 crashes, then there is only a short window of opportunity for it to occur. The time window of 29 days to final peak is now in alignment from 1929, 1987 and 2024.
Will it occur? It probably will not occur if we start to rally from this point forward. But if we start right NOW to get some hard down days and stronger lower low and lower high days going into the first week of September, then maybe just maybe the stock market crash fantasy won't be a fantasy anymore.
Some technical notes:
we continue to have many and plenty of Carl V bearish technical patterns on major indices that points to a test of the August 5 lows. A move down to those lows into the the first week of September would be a very bearish sign for markets, but it is unknown whether such a big decline could happen that fast again.
SP500 Will Go Down! Sell!
Take a look at our analysis for SP500.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 5,607.46.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 5,575.58 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
S&P500 Corrction Downwards#trading_idea #US500 💡
#US500 - Bearish Momentum
🕯Market Analysis Overview:
U.S. Stocks: This week, the rally in U.S. stocks faces a critical test as Nvidia is set to release its earnings report. Nvidia's stock has surged 150% year-to-date, significantly boosting the S&P 500.
Nvidia's Importance: Nvidia has played a major role in driving the S&P 500, which is now approaching record highs again. The company's performance has contributed a substantial portion of the index's gains this year.
Market Expectations: Nvidia's future guidance on AI investments could have a significant impact on market sentiment.
Risk and Volatility: September is historically a volatile month for the S&P 500. Nvidia's results could either support the ongoing rally or heighten investor concerns.
On the 4-hour chart, the price is testing the middle Bollinger Band. A potential ABCD pattern could complete to the downside. The RSI has dropped below the 50 line. If the downward movement continues, the next target is the lower Bollinger Band at the support level of 5578.
Possible Scenarios
🔽If the price break down the middle line of the Bollinger the further decline to the support 5600 and lower is possible.
🔼Otherwise, a return to the resistance at 5630 is likely.
😎 Choose "👍" if you expect a price hike and "👎" if you expect a decline.
EWTSU SP500 H1 minuscole 5 running
EWTSU SP500 H1 minuscole 5 running
ending diagonal of submicro (5)
monitor to confirm submiuette III - alternative c
