$SPX 5650/5660 bear call spreads to close the week here Alright, y'all... i just slid into some 5650/5660 bear call spreads after this move to close out the week..
a close under 5650 is all I'm asking for for the win!! Let's see...
US500.PRO.OTMS trade ideas
The S&P500 Remains BullishAfter a brief period of weakness on Tuesday, the S&P 500 is showing signs of strength again.
The market established higher highs and was able to prevent a slide below the 5,550-point mark.
For this reason, we remain bullish on the S&P 500 and expect the 5,700 mark to be reached soon.
SPX500 Resistance Ahead!SPX500 keeps going up
Now in a local uptrend
But the Indice will soon
Hit a horizontal resistance
Of 5574.53 and after
The retest we will be
Expecting a local
Move down !
Distribution or accumulation on the ES WyckoffOn the US 500 the scenario yesterday showed sell in on the intermediate structure. However, today we had heavy buying on 5560, so probably we are on phase D on intermediate.
Potential objectives are 5614 and 5625. Don't forget that the whole structure still has more potential, so it will be feasible to give more room for movement. PEPPERSTONE:US500
Bulls and Bears zone for 08-23-2024Yesterday S&P 500 closed down creating a Bearish Engulfing pattern. It could be reason for caution for Bulls.
Level to watch: 5630 ---5628
News to watch:
US: New Home Sales 10 AM ET
US: Jerome Powell Speaks 10 AM ET
Could this be a big bat pattern?SPX went parabolic after breaking the 1.61 of the bottoming swing. This move has now extended to the 2.61 of that fib set and currently sold off to under it.
It's possible this is a bat pattern. If it is, then we probably made a high yesterday. One caveat of the bat to always keep in mind is if it fails it can evolve into a crab and when that happens you are essentially "Right" but you're going to get spiked out. Always a risk to keep in mind when trading a bat.
We have a similar pattern in the DJI. Interestingly, we have not made as deep retracements in the RUT and Nasdaq. Nasdaq actually looking much like a classic bull trap. The possible Nasdaq bull trap and bat patterns in DJI and SPX resulted in me opening swing shorts in DJI, SPX and Nasdaq yesterday.
Waiting to see if we can make the follow through break today. Will trail stops and add to positions if we do.
S&P500 / Rise in Anticipation of Powell’s Jackson Hole AddressStock Index Futures Climb Ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech
S&P 500 Technical Analysis:
The S&P 500 recently pulled back from its resistance at 5643 and is currently consolidating within a narrow range between 5584 and 5620, awaiting a decisive breakout.
Bullish Scenario:
A breakout above 5644 is necessary to challenge the all-time high (ATH) at 5675. If 5675 is breached, it could confirm a bullish trend continuation.
Bearish Scenario:
Should the price remain below 5584 and close a 4-hour candle beneath this level, it could signal the onset of a bearish trend, potentially driving the price down to 5525 and 5460.
Key Levels:
Pivot Line: 5602
Resistance Levels: 5620, 5644, 5676
Support Levels: 5584, 5525, 5460
Expected Trading Range for Today: The price is anticipated to fluctuate between 5620 and 5460.
Current Trend: Bearish momentum
SPX Technical Analysis BreakdownHere is my technical breakdown of SPX on the 4 HOUR time frame...
We started the month of May with an up-trend trend line bounce on a key support level which saw SPX climb slightly passed the support zone to surpass another key zone
After this climb, we saw it accumulating in a RANGE from 14th May - 29th May, where it eventually broke to the downside. Normally this is a trade we would enter as it's a big volume range break, however, it broke downwards to touch a key support zone. In my experience this is NOT a trade worth taking as they are opposite confirmations.
Later in July we finally got the RANGE trade we were looking for, when 17th June - 5th July we saw it's ACCUMULATING RANGE break with large volume to the UPSIDE. This trend was worth entering as it was heading towards a key resistance area, a great place to exercise your exit strategy.
Once SPX hit the key resistance zone it bounced off and formed a downward trend line that would also be hit later down the line, confirming its relevance.
When SPX hit the resistance line it found plenty of BULL TRADERS on the key SUPPORT level and bounced back up to touch the key RESISTANCE level on 20th AUGUST, where once again it touched the downward trend line.
WHAT TO LOOK FOR NOW -
I'm watching to see if SPX enters the resistance zone and breaks the trend-line and exits the zone, that's two confirmations for an uptrend which makes me confident in the long trade.
On the other side, i'm waiting for the trend to retest key support zones where I will be waiting for a key zone breakout or bounce back to the resistance level.
S&P500 NeoWave IdeaS&P 500 NeoWave Idea: A Potential Elliott Wave Analysis
Disclaimer: While Elliott Wave Theory can provide valuable insights, it's essential to remember that it's a subjective analysis tool, and market movements can be unpredictable. Always conduct thorough research and consider multiple factors before making investment decisions.
SPX Analysis by Deno Trading: Key Levels to Watch ForMy Take:
Looking at the 4-hour chart of the S&P 500 Index, it's clear that we're approaching a critical juncture. The price recently rallied up to the $5,620 - $5,630 resistance zone, which has been a significant barrier in the past. However, this level has proven to be tough for the bulls to break through, and we're now seeing signs of potential exhaustion.
Key Levels:
Resistance:
$5,620 - $5,630: This is the zone where the price is currently facing resistance. It’s a crucial area to watch because a failure to break above it could result in a pullback.
Support:
$5,480 - $5,440: If we see a rejection from the current resistance, I'm expecting the price to retrace towards this support zone. This area has acted as a strong floor in the past, and it's likely where buyers might step in again.
Trendline Support:
The upward trendline, originating from the lows earlier this year, is still intact. This trendline could provide additional support around the $5,280 level if the price breaks through the aforementioned support zone.
Expectations:
Pullback Potential:
Given the current price action, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a pullback from this resistance zone. The first area I'll be watching for potential support is the $5,480 - $5,440 zone. A break below this could bring us down to test the trendline around $5,280.
Continuation of the Uptrend:
If the bulls manage to push through the $5,620 - $5,630 resistance zone, we could see a continuation of the uptrend with a possible target towards $5,700 and beyond. But for now, I’m leaning towards the possibility of a short-term pullback before any further upside.
Final Thoughts:
Right now, I’m closely watching how the price reacts around this resistance zone. A pullback could offer a good buying opportunity, especially if it holds above the $5,480 - $5,440 support area. On the other hand, a strong breakout above $5,630 would signal that the bulls are in control and could push the market to new highs.
This is a video coverage of an analysis that I did yesterday. Stay Positive!
SPX500 H4 | Bearish Drop Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 5593.53, which is a pullback resistance
Our take profit will be at 5504.44, a pullback support level close to 23.6% Fibo retracement.
The stop loss will be at 5673.53, a swing high resistance level.
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SPX500 OutlookPAIR:
Bullish Outlook:
SPX500 has been breaking into new highs on our Weekly, Daily, and 4hr time frame. Price has made a nice valid pullback, we now need a valid-engulfing-pattern while staying above the 50ema. Keeping an eye on this
What's S&P500 & Why Needs a Price CorrectionThe S&P 500 (Standard & Poor's 500) is a stock market index that tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. It is widely regarded as one of the best indicators of the overall health of the U.S. stock market and the economy. The companies included in the index span a wide range of industries, including technology, healthcare, financials, and consumer goods, among others. The index is weighted by market capitalization, meaning larger companies have a greater impact on the index's performance.
Why SP500 needs a Price Correction?
A price correction occurs when the value of a stock or a market index, like the S&P 500, declines by a certain percentage, typically 10% or more, after a sustained period of upward movement. Corrections are a natural part of market cycles and can happen for several reasons. Here are a few reasons why stocks may need to go down in order to make a correction:
1. Overvaluation:
When stocks become overvalued relative to their earnings, assets, or growth potential, a correction helps realign prices with their intrinsic value. Investors may have driven prices too high due to speculation or overly optimistic expectations, and a correction brings valuations back to more reasonable levels.
2. Market Euphoria and Excessive Risk-Taking:
When the market experiences excessive optimism, driven by factors like low-interest rates, easy access to capital, or speculative trading, it can lead to inflated stock prices. A correction serves as a reality check, reducing excessive risk-taking and bringing prices back to sustainable levels.
3. Economic Slowdown or Uncertainty:
Economic indicators like GDP growth, unemployment rates, or consumer spending can signal a slowdown. If the economy is weakening, companies may struggle to meet earnings expectations, leading to lower stock prices. A correction allows the market to adjust to a new economic reality.
4. Interest Rate Changes:
Rising interest rates make borrowing more expensive and reduce corporate profits, which can lead to a market correction. Higher rates also make bonds more attractive relative to stocks, prompting investors to reallocate their portfolios, leading to downward pressure on stock prices.
5. Profit-Taking by Investors:
After a strong market rally, investors may start taking profits, especially if they believe prices have peaked. This selling pressure can lead to a correction as stock prices adjust to lower levels.
Conclusion
Corrections are a necessary and healthy part of the market cycle, helping to prevent bubbles from forming and ensuring that stock prices reflect the underlying fundamentals of companies and the economy. Although corrections can be unsettling for investors, they often create buying opportunities and contribute to the long-term stability of the market.
SPX, Smaller time frame ViewIn my previous post on SPX, I have already share longer time frame view and i'm bullish on it.
On a shorter timeframe, I feel the correction might be over in wave iv. We might head higher and make ATH in days to come.
Kindly note, this is not a financial advise. I don't trade in options or futures, and don't recommend the same.
Lets see how it plays out.
Kindly like, subscribe and share if you like this idea. :)
S&p500 There is weakness in the trend; however, it still has one final upward wave before entering a strong corrective phase.
SPX | Strongest Bearish Action Since 2022We are likely witnessing the very beginning, the start of the most dramatic crash since the year 2022. This will be the most steep, fast and brutal correction in several years.
Don't get me wrong. I am not trying to scare anybody nor create panic, just sharing a simple truth based on data coming from the chart. Based on market cycle, price dynamics and TA experience. ➢ The SPX is about to resume its corrective phase.
The three weeks up is called a "pull-back," a natural market "reaction," an "inverted correction," a "bounce," and so on. The thing is that this isn't an actual bullish move but the correction of a bearish move.
Since this correction is over, the initial bearish move that started mid-July will resume.
➢ Basics, basics, basics. We have a lower high, this will lead to a lower low.
➢ Believe it or not, cry or scream, it doesn't matter... Down we go!
➢ Prepare for the crash. You have plenty of time.
Thanks a lot for your support.
Namaste.
sp500 Analysis 8_22Price rallied to Previous Days high and collapsed. News was a catalyst pushing price down
with the bears. Heading towards previous days lows and targeting mondays.
S&P 500 Index SPX To Rally FurtherThe S&P 500 index SPX is just 50 points away from breaching the previous all-time high.
The minutes of the Fed’s July 30-31 meeting, released Wednesday, said the “vast majority” of policymakers “observed that, if the data continued to come in about as expected, it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting.”
Traders had already considered it a certainty that the Fed will announce its first interest rate cut in four years when it meets in mid-September.
SPX next targets: 5680 - 5825.
The S&P 500 Index Approaches Historic HighThe S&P 500 Index Approaches Historic High
On 2 August, we analysed the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) chart, where we:
→ Constructed an ascending channel A-B with a median line shown as a dotted line;
→ Highlighted the risk of a bearish breakout (as indicated by the red arrow).
Since then:
→ The price dropped by more than 5% to the 5 August low, doubling the width of the A-B channel towards point C – the B line became the median of a wider channel. The index's decline was driven by recession fears, based on weak US labour market data;
→ However, the price then began to recover from the lower boundary of the wider channel, indicating that recession fears have subsided and the rally continues;
→ The price has now returned close to historical highs.
Yesterday, the minutes from the FOMC meeting on 30-31 July were released, revealing that the vast majority of participants noted that if data continues to align with expectations, it might be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting.
The S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) index remained largely unchanged on this news – this indicates market participants' belief that interest rates will likely be cut in September, which would stimulate economic growth, company performance, and stock indices.
Technical analysis of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) chart today shows that:
→ On 7-8 August, bears attempted to resume the downward trend but failed;
→ In mid-August, price action made the trendlines shown in purple relevant;
→ On 15 August, the B line was confidently broken (indicated by the blue arrow);
→ The dotted line is showing signs of resistance.
Thus, it is reasonable to assume that bulls have regained control of the market after the sharp decline in the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) in early August. If the sentiment remains unchanged, we could see attempts to reach a new historical high.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
S&P 500 / It's beginning to look a lot like rate cutsIt's beginning to look a lot like rate cuts
S&P 500 Technical Analysis
The price is currently consolidating between 5620 and 5675, awaiting a breakout.
Bullish Scenario:
Stability above 5620 means will touch 5642 and above it 5672
Bearish Scenario:
If the price remains below 5620, it could lead to a corrective move down to 5584.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 5620
- Resistance Lines: 5642, 5675, 5700
- Support Lines: 5584, 5553, 5525
Today's Expected Trading Range: The price is expected to fluctuate between 5584 and 5675.
Trend: Bullish momentum
SPX. Heavy short after Unemployment Claims News? 22/August/24SPX500 will reach ATH again? Maybe today US Unemployment Claims data will give us an answer? Although US government have "announced" that don't be "shocked/shorted" as this time "the calculation" of US Unemployment Claims is "difference" than before..
The best trade can sometime be no trade!There’s a time to sit on your hands.
Sometimes the best trade idea is to simply turn off the monitor, pack away your pens and paper, and go relax for a long weekend. (UK Bank Holiday Weekend)
I am always long on US stocks; however, sometimes the market gets into a position when the risk to reward is not there.
I look to follow market momentum, ideally early momentum. Yes, there has been a lot of momentum since the 'JPY carry unwind' at the start of August, and S&P500 has shown us momentum.
Momentum usually comes in three stages:
Early momentum: the best time to enter.
High momentum: high RR trades.
Stretched momentum: be cautious.
Trading with momentum will always yield a higher RR, in my opinion, and my trade thesis is still in play.
So why stay flat? Jackson Hole Symposium! Usually, I’m chilled with economic releases, but this event’s making me take a step back for a few days.
In its most simplistic form, I believe the market is front running this event, less than 1% from ATH, a major level plus approaching short term stretched momentum.
The general assumption being that Fed Chair Powell will give the market what it wants, some warm words implying rate cuts. = liquidity and cheap money = buy everything.
This is good, right? Well, yes and no. Long-term, it’s great. Shorter term ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact’ is not great. The potential good news may be capped; what else can he say that the market hasn’t priced in? However, if JP is dovish or signals some caution, there could be a bigger pullback, skewing the RR on a trade.
Remember, the market moves in ebbs and flows . A quick visual look at the chart shows, SPX, doesn’t stretch too far from the 20 SMA before pulling back.
Avoid trading into major levels ! One of my rules. I’ll be waiting for a clean break above 5675, SPX to pullback, and then looking for new momentum. OR a sharp correction, and again, wait for early momentum after the pullback.
Avoid FOMO, have your rules, and be confident. If the market moves 5% without me, so be it. I’ll wait for a pullback! Look for high-probability trades and avoid the stress of low probability.
Keep trading simple. Keep macro simpler.
