SPX500 technical analysis We should see SPX go back down here. Technical trend lines at resistance showing a sell. Stochastic also showing over bought levels.
US500.PRO.OTMS trade ideas
My Bet on Energy Due to AI's Electricity BottleneckWhy I'm Betting on the Energy Market Due to AI's Electricity Bottleneck: My Two Cents
As someone who works in the AI space, I've witnessed firsthand the incredible advancements and the hype surrounding artificial intelligence. Companies like NVIDIA have seen their stock prices skyrocket to all-time highs, fueled by the insatiable demand for AI technologies. But beneath this excitement lies a critical, often overlooked issue that could significantly impact the energy sector—and offer intriguing investment opportunities.
In this article, I want to share my perspective on why I'm betting on the energy market, specifically utilities and natural gas companies, due to the emerging electricity bottleneck caused by AI's exponential growth. If you're an investor or just someone interested in the intersection of technology and energy, this is a trend you won't want to miss.
The Unseen Problem: Electricity Demand Outpacing Supply
The AI Boom and Its Energy Appetite
Working in AI, I see daily how models are becoming increasingly complex, requiring massive computational power to train and operate. While the parameter sizes of these models aren't doubling every few months, the growth is still substantial. For example, GPT-3 has 175 billion parameters, and estimates suggest GPT-4 has around 280 billion parameters (*1). Training GPT-4 is estimated to have required about 1,750 megawatt-hours of electricity—the equivalent of what 160 average American homes use in a year (*2).
But it's not just about training these models; running them (inference) also demands significant power. Each query to GPT-4 consumes about 2.9 watt-hours of electricity, nearly ten times that of a standard Google search (*3). Multiply that by millions of users and billions of queries, and you can see how quickly the energy consumption adds up.
Hitting the Limits of Electrical Infrastructure
Here's the crux of the issue: our current electrical infrastructure isn't equipped to handle the escalating demands of AI. Data centers already consume 1-2% of global electricity, and this figure is projected to rise to 3-4% by 2030 (*4). The International Energy Agency forecasts that global data center electricity demand will more than double from 2022 to 2026, with AI playing a major role (*5).
In my professional circles, there's growing concern about the strain on power infrastructure. Operating large clusters of high-performance GPUs, like NVIDIA's H100, could potentially strain a state's entire electrical grid. While specific figures vary, the general consensus is that we're nearing the limits of what our grids can handle (*6).
Microsoft seems to recognize this issue. They've recently purchased a power plant, presumably to secure a stable electricity supply for their data centers (*7). This move underscores the severity of the electricity bottleneck we're approaching.
The Impending Slowdown in AI Development
Given these constraints, I believe the rapid pace of AI advancement may slow down in the short to medium term. Industry leaders like Elon Musk and Amazon CEO Andy Jassy have identified electricity supply as the latest bottleneck for AI development, replacing the previous constraint of chip availability (*8). It's not just about technological capabilities anymore; it's about physical resources. We simply aren't producing enough electricity to sustain the current trajectory of AI scaling.
This isn't a hurdle we can clear overnight. Building new power plants, upgrading grid infrastructure, and securing renewable energy sources are massive undertakings that require time and substantial investment. This potential slowdown has significant implications for markets and investors, shifting attention toward sectors that can address or benefit from these challenges.
Why the Energy Sector Stands to Benefit
Increased Demand for Electricity
The most direct beneficiary of this situation is the energy sector. As AI companies grapple with electricity shortages, utilities and energy providers will see increased demand. According to Goldman Sachs Research, data center power demand is expected to grow 160% by 2030 (*4). This isn't just a temporary spike; it's a trend that could persist as long as the demand for AI technologies continues to grow.
Natural Gas as a Key Player
Natural gas is a cornerstone of U.S. electricity generation, accounting for approximately 43% of the country's electricity production in 2023 (*9). Its abundance, relatively low cost, and ability to quickly ramp up production make it essential for meeting immediate energy demands. With constraints on electricity supply, natural gas producers and related infrastructure companies are in a prime position to capitalize.
Opportunities in Grid Infrastructure
Beyond just producing more electricity, there's a pressing need to upgrade and expand the electrical grid. The strain isn't solely about capacity but also about managing fluctuations in demand. Companies specializing in grid infrastructure and smart technologies could see substantial growth as they help modernize the system to handle higher loads.
Stocks and Sectors I'm Watching
1. Utilities with Natural Gas-Fired Power Plants
NextEra Energy ( NYSE:NEE ): Not only does NextEra have significant natural gas operations, but they're also leaders in renewable energy. This dual focus positions them well for both immediate and long-term energy needs.
Duke Energy ( NYSE:DUK ) : Serving millions across multiple states, Duke Energy's extensive infrastructure makes them a key player in meeting increased electricity demand.
2. Natural Gas Producers
ExxonMobil ( NYSE:XOM ): As one of the world's largest publicly traded energy providers, ExxonMobil has substantial natural gas operations and the resources to scale up production.
Chevron Corporation ( NYSE:CVX ): Chevron's investments in natural gas projects and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facilities make it a key player in meeting both domestic and international needs.
EQT Corporation ( NYSE:EQT ): Focusing on the Appalachian Basin, EQT stands to benefit directly from increased domestic demand.
3. Natural Gas Producers
Kinder Morgan ( NYSE:KMI ): Operating extensive pipeline networks, Kinder Morgan is crucial for natural gas distribution.
The Williams Companies ( NYSE:WMB ): Specializing in natural gas processing and transportation, Williams is set to capitalize on increased flow, with plans to add around 4.2 billion cubic feet per day from 2024 to 2027 (*10).
4. LNG Exporters
Cheniere Energy ( NYSE:LNG ): As the leading U.S. LNG exporter, Cheniere recently loaded their 3,000th cargo in 2023 (*11).
Tellurian Inc. ( AMEX:TELL ): Poised for growth with plans to build the first two plants at their Driftwood LNG export facility (*12).
5. Grid Infrastructure and Technology Firms
American Electric Power ( NASDAQ:AEP ): Owning the nation's largest electricity transmission system, AEP plans to invest $40 billion from 2023 through 2027, focusing on transmission and distribution (*13).
Eaton Corporation ( NYSE:ETN ): Their energy-efficient technologies are vital for grid modernization and enhancing reliability (*14).
6. Renewable Energy Companies
While natural gas is key for immediate needs, renewable energy companies are crucial for sustainable long-term solutions.
First Solar ( NASDAQ:FSLR ): Specializing in utility-scale solar projects.
Brookfield Renewable Partners ( NYSE:BEP ): With a diversified renewable portfolio, they're set to benefit from the shift toward clean energy.
Disclaimer: This article reflects my personal opinions and is for informational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Investing in the stock market involves risks, including the loss of principal. Please conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Sources
1. OpenAI's GPT-4 Technical Report
cdn.openai.com
2. AI Energy Consumption
www.energycentral.com
3. The Hidden Cost of AI
www.datacenterknowledge.com
4. Goldman Sachs Research on Data Center Power Demand
www.goldmansachs.com
5. International Energy Agency on Data Centers
www.iea.org
6. The Conversation on AI Energy Use
theconversation.com
7. Microsoft's Power Plant Purchase
www.theverge.com
8. Electricity Supply as AI's Bottleneck
www.ft.com
9. U.S. Energy Information Administration
www.eia.gov
10. Williams Companies Expansion Plans
www.williams.com
11. Cheniere Energy Milestones
www.cheniere.com
12. Tellurian's Driftwood LNG Project
www.tellurianinc.com
13. American Electric Power Investment Plans
www.aep.com
14. Eaton Corporation Overview
www.eaton.com
tESTWhy I'm Betting on the Energy Market Due to AI's Electricity Bottleneck: My Two Cents
As someone who works in the AI space, I've witnessed firsthand the incredible advancements and the hype surrounding artificial intelligence. Companies like NVIDIA have seen their stock prices skyrocket to all-time highs, fueled by the insatiable demand for AI technologies. But beneath this excitement lies a critical, often overlooked issue that could significantly impact the energy sector—and offer intriguing investment opportunities.
In this article, I want to share my perspective on why I'm betting on the energy market, specifically utilities and natural gas companies, due to the emerging electricity bottleneck caused by AI's exponential growth. If you're an investor or just someone interested in the intersection of technology and energy, this is a trend you won't want to miss.
The Unseen Problem: Electricity Demand Outpacing Supply
The AI Boom and Its Energy Appetite
Working in AI, I see daily how models are becoming increasingly complex, requiring massive computational power to train and operate. While the parameter sizes of these models aren't doubling every few months, the growth is still substantial. For example, GPT-3 has 175 billion parameters, and estimates suggest GPT-4 has around 280 billion parameters (*1). Training GPT-4 is estimated to have required about 1,750 megawatt-hours of electricity—the equivalent of what 160 average American homes use in a year (*2).
But it's not just about training these models; running them (inference) also demands significant power. Each query to GPT-4 consumes about 2.9 watt-hours of electricity, nearly ten times that of a standard Google search (*3). Multiply that by millions of users and billions of queries, and you can see how quickly the energy consumption adds up.
Hitting the Limits of Electrical Infrastructure
Here's the crux of the issue: our current electrical infrastructure isn't equipped to handle the escalating demands of AI. Data centers already consume 1-2% of global electricity, and this figure is projected to rise to 3-4% by 2030 (*4). The International Energy Agency forecasts that global data center electricity demand will more than double from 2022 to 2026, with AI playing a major role (*5).
In my professional circles, there's growing concern about the strain on power infrastructure. Operating large clusters of high-performance GPUs, like NVIDIA's H100, could potentially strain a state's entire electrical grid. While specific figures vary, the general consensus is that we're nearing the limits of what our grids can handle (*6).
Microsoft seems to recognize this issue. They've recently purchased a power plant, presumably to secure a stable electricity supply for their data centers (*7). This move underscores the severity of the electricity bottleneck we're approaching.
The Impending Slowdown in AI Development
Given these constraints, I believe the rapid pace of AI advancement may slow down in the short to medium term. Industry leaders like Elon Musk and Amazon CEO Andy Jassy have identified electricity supply as the latest bottleneck for AI development, replacing the previous constraint of chip availability (*8). It's not just about technological capabilities anymore; it's about physical resources. We simply aren't producing enough electricity to sustain the current trajectory of AI scaling.
This isn't a hurdle we can clear overnight. Building new power plants, upgrading grid infrastructure, and securing renewable energy sources are massive undertakings that require time and substantial investment. This potential slowdown has significant implications for markets and investors, shifting attention toward sectors that can address or benefit from these challenges.
Why the Energy Sector Stands to Benefit
Increased Demand for Electricity
The most direct beneficiary of this situation is the energy sector. As AI companies grapple with electricity shortages, utilities and energy providers will see increased demand. According to Goldman Sachs Research, data center power demand is expected to grow 160% by 2030 (*4). This isn't just a temporary spike; it's a trend that could persist as long as the demand for AI technologies continues to grow.
Natural Gas as a Key Player
Natural gas is a cornerstone of U.S. electricity generation, accounting for approximately 43% of the country's electricity production in 2023 (*9). Its abundance, relatively low cost, and ability to quickly ramp up production make it essential for meeting immediate energy demands. With constraints on electricity supply, natural gas producers and related infrastructure companies are in a prime position to capitalize.
Opportunities in Grid Infrastructure
Beyond just producing more electricity, there's a pressing need to upgrade and expand the electrical grid. The strain isn't solely about capacity but also about managing fluctuations in demand. Companies specializing in grid infrastructure and smart technologies could see substantial growth as they help modernize the system to handle higher loads.
Stocks and Sectors I'm Watching
*Utilities with Natural Gas-Fired Power Plants
*NextEra Energy (NEE): Not only does NextEra have significant natural gas operations, but they're also leaders in renewable energy. This dual focus positions them well for both immediate and long-term energy needs.
]
*Duke Energy (DUK): Serving millions across multiple states, Duke Energy's extensive infrastructure makes them a key player in meeting increased electricity demand.
SPx / U.S. Jobs Data Sparks Rate Cut RethinkRates Rethink After Strong U.S. Jobs Data Could Disrupt Markets
The aftermath of unexpectedly robust U.S. employment figures could potentially upend various trades hinged on declining interest rates. Should this stronger-than-anticipated economic growth prompt a substantial reassessment of the Federal Reserve’s approach to cutting borrowing costs, investors may need to reconsider their positions significantly.
Technical Analysis:
The price is expected to consolidate within the range of 5732 and 5784 until a breakout occurs. A close below 5732 on the 1-hour or 4-hour chart is likely to trigger a decline towards 5708, with a further drop potentially reaching 5675.
Conversely, if a 4-hour candle closes above 5732, the price may advance to 5784, with stability above this level paving the way to 5840.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5732
Resistance Levels: 5749, 5784, 5820
Support Levels: 5708, 5675, 5643
Trend Outlook:
- Bearish below 5732
- Bullish above 5749
us500US500 fell to the support area at 5,650 with the reaction it received from the median of the rising trend channel. Which scenario do you think will happen next?
Must-Read Investing Books: The Top 5 for Every InvestorWelcome to Part 2 of our must-read book series. Last time, we took a deep dive into the fast-paced world of trading, giving you the trading must-reads to sharpen your short-term, high-risk market chops.
Now it's time to slow down and shift into a lower gear. Trading is a thrill, but investing is where the long game pays off. While trading is about timing, investing is about patience—and, some might even say, good investing is boring. So let’s be real, mastering both is how you dominate.
In this Idea, we’re focusing on the timeless art of investing. Whether you’re gunning for that Warren Buffett-level compound interest or just looking to stack up some dividends, these five books will teach you how to think like an investor. Grab your coffee and your notepad—let’s dive in.
📖 1. The Intelligent Investor
✍️ by Benjamin Graham
We’re kicking things off with the granddaddy of all investing books. Benjamin Graham’s The Intelligent Investor is the Bible of value investing. Benjamin Graham is the father of value investing, and his no-nonsense approach to buying undervalued stocks and waiting for the market to catch up is the gold standard. Graham teaches you how to analyze companies for their intrinsic value, while cautioning against the emotional rollercoaster of market volatility. It’s all about buying low, staying patient, and letting time do its thing.
🔑 Key Insight : Ignore market noise and buy undervalued assets with a long-term view. Stick to your strategy and let time do its thing.
📖 2. Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits
✍️ by Philip Fisher
Philip Fisher introduces growth investing with a focus on buying quality companies. In Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits , Fisher explains his "scuttlebutt" approach—researching a company thoroughly, from its management to its industry (think investigative journalism on a stock). This book is a must-read for those looking to spot the next Apple AAPL or Amazon AMZN before they become household names.
🔑 Key Insight : Invest in great companies with solid growth potential. Deep research is your key to success.
📖 3. The Most Important Thing
✍️ by Howard Marks
Howard Marks is a legend in the world of risk management and value investing, and The Most Important Thing is essentially his playbook. Marks dives deep into risk, market cycles, and contrarian thinking—he teaches you how to avoid getting wrecked by the market’s irrationality. This isn’t your typical book on the topic of investing; it's a mindset shift and an eye-opener—everyone is a genius when markets rise. But what defines the true investing skill is how you perform in tough times.
🔑 Key Insight : Success in investing is more about managing risk than chasing returns. Protect the downside, and the upside will take care of itself.
📖 4. The Little Book of Common Sense Investing
✍️ by John C. Bogle
John Bogle—the finance genius who invented the index fund—drops some serious knowledge in The Little Book of Common Sense Investing . This book strips away the complicated jargon and exclusivity surrounding Wall Street and keeps it simple: low-cost index funds will beat active management in the long run. Bogle’s philosophy is all about minimizing fees and letting compounding work miracles over time.
🔑 Key Insight : Keep it simple. Low fees and long-term compounding are the keys to building wealth.
📖 5. The Essays of Warren Buffett: Lessons for Corporate America
✍️ by Warren Buffett and Lawrence Cunningham
Okay, we all know Warren Buffett is the GOAT when it comes to investing. The Essays of Warren Buffett is a collection of his legendary letters to Berkshire Hathaway BRK.A shareholders, curated and organized to offer a behind-the-curtain insight on everything from corporate governance to value investing. Buffett has a knack for simplifying complex financial ideas, making this book an invaluable resource for investors of any level.
🔑 Key Insight : There’s no better teacher than Buffett when it comes to long-term, value-based investing. His wisdom is timeless and actionable—invest in solid companies with long-term growth prospects, and don’t get distracted by short-term market swings.
📚 Bonus Picks: The Investor’s Library Expansion Pack
Looking for even more wisdom? Here are a few more titles to round out your investing education:
📖 The Snowball by Alice Schroeder
A biography of Warren Buffett, The Snowball takes you inside the mind of the Oracle of Omaha, showing how his investment philosophy developed and how he built his fortune. It’s part investing guide, part life lesson, and all-around a fascinating read.
📖 The Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel
This book explores how our emotions, biases, and behaviors affect our financial decisions. The Psychology of Money breaks down complex financial concepts into easily digestible stories that reveal how investors can avoid the psychological traps that lead to poor decision-making.
📖 One Up on Wall Street by Peter Lynch
Legendary investor Peter Lynch shares his strategy of finding "tenbaggers"—stocks that increase tenfold in value. Lynch teaches that sometimes the best investment ideas are right in front of you—pay attention to the businesses you love and understand.
📖 A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Burton Malkiel
Random Walk argues that trying to time the market is a fool’s errand. Instead, Malkiel promotes the idea of efficient markets, where it’s almost impossible to outperform the market consistently without taking on substantial risk. It's an excellent guide for those who believe in passive investing and long-term strategies.
📖 Mastering the Market Cycle by Howard Marks
Another essential from Howard Marks, Mastering the Market Cycle teaches you how to recognize the ups and downs of the market and adjust your strategy accordingly. Timing the market may be impossible, but understanding its cycles will give you an edge.
And there you have it—five more powerhouse reads to add to your investing library. These aren’t just books; they’re roadmaps from some of the sharpest minds in finance. Whether you’re looking for market cycles with Howard Marks or tapping into Warren Buffett’s timeless wisdom, each of these picks will help you get better in the long game.
The best investors aren’t just lucky—they’re educated, patient, and, most importantly, they’re always learning. So grab a book, dive in, and start stacking knowledge that compounds just like your portfolio should.
💎 Got any personal favorites that didn’t make the list? Drop them in the comments—we’re always down to discover more investing wisdom!
The key is whether it can rise above 5878.7-6119.3
Hello, traders.
If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly.
Please also click "Boost".
Have a nice day today.
-------------------------------------
I think this is the first time I've written an idea for the SPX500USD futures chart.
I'll give you an example of how to actually use it using the parallel channel that I introduced.
No matter how good an indicator or chart tool is added, if you don't know how to use it, chart analysis can be done in the wrong direction, so it is recommended that you familiarize yourself with the core interpretation method and how to use it before using it.
There are many examples of how to draw a trend line or how to draw a parallel channel, so you need to study how to draw it.
-----------------------------------------------
(SPX500USD 1M chart)
It is rising near the upper black line of the parallel channel.
Therefore, it is likely to face resistance near the black line and fall.
Accordingly, we need to check for support near 1 (5878.7) drawn with the right trend period Fibonacci Extension (Trend-Based Fib Extension) tool.
If it falls, we need to check if it can rise along the middle point (black dotted line) of the parallel channel.
However, since the section pointed to by the finger is an important support and resistance section, if it receives support near this section, it is highly likely that the upward trend will continue.
-
The left trend period Fibonacci Extension (Trend-Based Fib Extension) is drawn as the first rising wave on the 12M chart.
The trend-based Fibonacci extension on the right is drawn as the last rising wave on the 1M chart.
-
The section drawn as a square box corresponds to an important section among the Fibonacci ratios drawn on the chart, and when viewed as a parallel channel, it passes near the upper black line, so you can see that it corresponds to an important section.
-
(1D chart)
Since it is a futures chart, it is right to explain it on a time frame chart that can actually be traded, but since an idea can become useless as soon as time passes after publishing it, I will explain it based on the 1D chart.
I think the most important trend in futures trading is the trend of the 1D chart.
Therefore, when trading in the opposite direction of the trend of the 1D chart, you need to respond quickly and briefly.
-
A parallel channel was also drawn on the 1D chart.
The first point is designated as the point that is supported and rises from the middle point of the parallel channel drawn on the 12M chart, and the point that the finger points to is designated to draw the parallel channel.
The HA-MS indicator was used to draw the support and resistance points.
However, as shown in the chart above, the HA-MS indicator may be distracting when viewing the chart, so I am explaining it by disabling it.
-
The key is whether the price can be maintained by rising above 5741.6.
The 5741.6 point is the HA-High indicator point on the 1D chart, meaning that anything above this point is in the high range.
Since the StochRSI indicator is currently in the oversold range, it is more likely to lead to an additional decline.
Therefore, if the price falls, the key is whether it can be supported near the middle point of the parallel channel on the 1D chart, which is the section indicated by the circle.
That said, I don't think it's a good idea to enter a sell (SHORT) position right now.
The reason is that the StochRSI indicator is in the oversold section.
Therefore, if you want to trade with a sell (SHORT) position through scalping and day trading, you need to respond quickly and quickly.
Although the StochRSI indicator has entered the oversold section, the BW indicator is still rising.
Therefore, you should consider that there is a high possibility of a fake or sweep that pretends to fall.
Therefore, in order to make a big profit with a sell (SHORT) position, the BW indicator should be in a horizontal line at the highest point (100) and the StochRSI indicator should be falling in the overbought section.
-
Have a nice time.
Thank you.
--------------------------------------------------
A Break Of Support Will Spell Waterfall for SPX!Hello fellow Traders!
Hope all is profitable and secured during this very high risk time for SPX Oanda.
Let me show some price action and get everyone prepared for a Possible waterfall if we break 5688 area, and stay below.
4 hr shows the zones we can easily reach if support breaks.
Let Price show you if it's going to continue down through the zones or gets bought up at those areas.
My bias for now is more bearish than bullish, but in the end the market will show us the direction.
S&P 500 SELL ANALYSIS RISING WEDGE PATTERNHere on S&P 500 price form a rising wedge pattern and is likely to fall so trader should look for SHORT when the price break line 5327.72 and targeting profit should be around level of 4808.25 and 4228.63 . Use money management
S&P500: Identical so far with 2018/20. October rally possible.S&P500 just turned bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 57.810, MACD = 53.820, ADX = 46.107) and that should give a new boost to the already bullish 1W timeframe (RSI = 63.805, MACD = 167.870, ADX = 40.687), which showcases the long term trend. And that long term price action can't be shown more effectively than on the 1W timeframe. We have spotted that the index is repeating the 2018-2020 trend.
Starting with a Channel Down under the 1D MA50, the index recovered massively and when it slowed down on a Channel Up, the 1W RSI turned ranged. We are now where the past fractal started rising aggressively again on the October 21st 2019 1W MACD Bullish Cross, as last week it completed a new such Cross. With the support of the 1W MA50, it is more likely now to see a strong rally to the 2.5 Fibonacci extension, where the 2020 fractal abruptly stopped with the COVID market meltdown, which is an event that can't be put into chart analysis.
This pattern shows that we have a clear target for early 2025 on the 2.5 Fib (TP = 6,500).
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Reversal candlestick pattern.As we can see, the trend is losing steam & we are due for a substantial correction.
SPX: pricing the soft landingThe US equity markets were traded in a mixed manner during the previous week. On one side there should be considered funds outflows to China's stocks, after the announcement of significant stimulus measures by their Government. In anticipation of non-farm payrolls data, the S&P 500 was traded with a negative sentiment, moving from the level of 5.760 down to 5.680. Still after a release of 254K of new jobs in the US economy in September, which was far above the market expectation, the optimism was back on the market. The Index ended the week at the level from the beginning of the week, 5.751. Majority of analysts are now in agreement that a soft landing for the US economy is the most likely scenario, and that the US economy is more resilient from their initial expectations.
Tech mega-cap companies were the ones that led the market to the upside on Friday's trading session, followed by companies from the financial sector. As per analysts, the financial sector is expected to gain during the following period, as an environment of decreased interest rates would support the credit activity. In this sense, JPMorgan and WellsFargo gained more than 3% for the week. Additional support for the index rally on Friday came from oil companies included in the S&P 500. Namely, as tensions in the Middle East continue, the price of oil has increased bringing companies within this sector higher by 7%.
SPX500 H4 | Falling to overlap supportSPX500 is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 5,693.65 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 5,595.00 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 5,826.06 which is a level that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level.
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Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (Oct 6th—> Oct 11th)Looking Ahead:
Next week will bring several key events:
Monday: Fed Speak; Nvidia AI Summit ( NASDAQ:NVDA )
Tuesday: PepsiCo Earnings ( NASDAQ:PEP )
Wednesday: Fed FOMC Minutes; 10-Year Bond Auction
Thursday: CPI Inflation, Jobless Claims; Tesla Robotaxi Event ( NASDAQ:TSLA )
Friday: PPI Inflation, Consumer Sentiment; Bank Earnings ( NYSE:JPM , NYSE:WFC , NYSE:BLK )
As we move forward, these developments will be crucial in shaping market sentiment and guiding investment decisions. If you have any questions or need further insights, feel free to reach out. Here’s to another week of informed investing and strategic decision-making! 🌟
S&P 500 – Wyckoff Distribution: Potential UTAD Bull Trap The S&P 500 is shaping up into a clear Wyckoff Distribution pattern. Based on price action, volume analysis, and the current market structure, a possible Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) could be forming, setting up a classic bull trap. Let’s dive into the key phases of this distribution cycle.
Wyckoff Distribution Phases with Volume Analysis:
Preliminary Supply (PS)
Early signs of distribution begin as smart money starts selling into the uptrend. This phase sees an uptick in volume, with price still moving higher. Larger players are offloading positions while retail traders continue to buy, unaware of the distribution at play.
Buying Climax (BCLMX)
Price reaches a peak, marked by a significant volume spike. Retail traders are buying heavily here, but smart money is quietly selling into this rally. Despite increasing volume, price struggles to make meaningful gains beyond the climax, indicating that supply is starting to dominate.
Automatic Reaction (AR)
Following the Buying Climax, the market enters an Automatic Reaction, where price pulls back sharply. This phase is characterized by large candles, showing strong selling pressure. Volume remains elevated, as the sharp decline reflects the market’s initial response to the excess supply that was introduced during the Buying Climax.
Tests
After the AR, the market attempts to retest previous highs, but volume decreases during these upward moves. Each test of the highs shows a lack of buying strength, with price struggling to regain momentum. The weakening demand during these tests confirms that the distribution is still in play and buyers are losing control.
Upthrust (UT)
The Upthrust is a false breakout above resistance, where volume spikes again. However, the price fails to sustain the breakout, signaling that market makers are absorbing buy orders. The combination of higher volume with limited price follow-through is a clear sign that the larger participants are offloading positions while retail traders are still buying into the move.
Sign of Weakness (SOW)
In this instance, the SOW didn’t fall as far as expected, suggesting that much of the supply was absorbed earlier. Volume increases, but the shallow price drop indicates that the market is preparing for a potential UTAD. A shallow SOW often precedes a more powerful Upthrust After Distribution, where price rises to trap buyers before the final markdown.
Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD)
The UTAD represents a final false breakout above the previous highs (BCLMX and UT), with high volume as breakout traders jump in, thinking the market is turning bullish again. Once these buy orders are absorbed, expect a sharp reversal. The UTAD serves as the final trap, marking the completion of the distribution phase and leading to the markdown.
Absorption, Bull Trap, and Market Psychology:
In this distribution, market makers have been absorbing buy orders throughout the phases, especially during the Tests, and should see the same during the upthrust. The shallow SOW gave retail traders the false impression that the market found support, leading them to buy dips with confidence. A powerful UTAD would act as the perfect bull trap, drawing in breakout buyers and triggering stop-losses for short sellers. This false breakout would generate liquidity for smart money to sell into before the markdown phase.
The psychology behind this setup is simple: retail traders are lured into thinking the price is breaking out, only to be caught off-guard by a sharp reversal. If we do see a breakout and a relatively quick return back into the range, we should see continued absorption at remaining levels, then the markdown begins.
S&P 500 for long.Price broke out of the major resistance zone, retest and formed a Double bottom. We go long after a retest of the double bottom neckline.
Tell me again why the MACRO landscape is not BULLISH for Silver?Bear market rally for SPX versus long term yields.
Silver enjoying the ride.
#silver #spx #yields #gold #oil #copper #uranium
Down for SPX500USDHi traders,
Last week SPX500USD started a correction down (wave 2).
I think we could see a continuation of the downmove next week to finish the correction.
Trade idea: Wait for a change in orderflow to bearish and a correction up on a lower timeframe to trade shorts.
If you want to learn more about wave analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a like and respectful comment.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide signals.
Don't be emotional, just trade!
Eduwave
SPX500 Trade Idea: Bearish Reversal SetupI am currently watching SPX500 for a potential bearish reversal to the downside. The price action is indicating a weakening uptrend as we approach key support at 5666.40.
Key Support Level: 5666.40
Trigger: A daily close below this level will confirm the breakout, flipping the previous support into resistance. In turn, that will be a fakeout in the market
If the price closes below 5666.40, I will be looking for a retest of this level. Once confirmed as resistance, it would signal a continuation of the downward move.
Trade Plan:
Entry: Upon a successful retest of 5666.40 (now acting as resistance).
Stop-Loss: Above the previous high formed during the retest.
Target: I am aiming for the next support area near 4790.95, which aligns with a key historical level of demand.
This setup provides a favorable risk-to-reward ratio if the bearish reversal plays out as expected. I will be closely monitoring for confirmation before entering the trade.
Eddy C | Swing Trader
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 4, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In the preceding week's Daily Chart Analysis for the Week of Sep 27, the index adhered to the anticipated behavior by attaining the robust support level at Mean Sup 5700. This notable resurgence in the primary trend will likely prompt a robust bull movement toward the completed Inner Index Rally at 5763, with a high probability of surpassing it and progressing towards the awaited Outer Index Rally at 5840 within the upcoming trading session. It is imperative to acknowledge that reaching these objectives will trigger a volatile downward sentiment price action.
Invite Only to Followers (Seasonal Investing with Dynamic Kelly)The indicator builds on top of the existing seasonality indicator in some simple, but powerful ways. It's invite only and only to followers. I don't ever charge for scripts but I want to grow my followers so I'm setting this to invite only to try and break 1000 followers.
Believe it or not, this can be used as a drop in replacement for DCA, or used for options trading.
The goal here get people away from the emotions involved in price based indicators and instead focus their attention on long term, risk adverse % returns...
In other words, buy below the average % return or sell when its above the average return, in combination with technical indicators.
Risk Management: Behind the hood, I use a modified Kelly Criterion that provides a mathematical approach to optimizing position sizes, but it requires careful consideration of probabilities and user risk tolerance. Misestimation of these factors can lead to increased risk. Users are encouraged to combine this tool with other risk management techniques to protect their capital.
Seasonality Limitations: Past performance does not guarantee future results. The seasonal trends presented by this indicator are based on historical data and may not be predictive of future outcomes, especially in a highly volatile or unpredictable market environment.
Tool Limitations: The Seasonal Investing indicator is best used as a supplementary analysis tool rather than as the sole basis for trading decisions. It is recommended to use it alongside other forms of technical and fundamental analysis.
Position Sizing with Dynamic Kelly Criterion:
This indicator calculates position sizes dynamically using the Kelly Criterion. The Kelly Ratio is used to determine the optimal position size that aims to maximize returns while managing risk. The position size is then adjusted using the Adjusted Kelly Fraction, which takes into account user-defined risk preferences and broader economic conditions (e.g., a dovish or hawkish Fed stance). Users can input values for their capital available, risk tolerance, margin rate, and other parameters to tailor position sizes to their own requirements.
Visual Representation Using Boxes:
The indicator draws projection boxes on the chart to visually represent each month's expected performance. These boxes are color-coded to reflect the calculated average return and extend from the beginning to the end of the month.
This visual feature allows users to easily spot seasonal patterns and assess the expected price movement for the current month.
User Interface Settings:
The indicator provides a variety of customizable settings:
Table Position: Users can choose the position of the heatmap table (left, center, or right) to best fit their trading interface.
Table Dimensions: Users can adjust the width and height of the table to control its appearance on the chart.
Skipping Specific Months: Users can input specific months (e.g., YYYY-MM) to exclude from the analysis, allowing for greater flexibility if some months are deemed to have unreliable or anomalous data.
Heatmap Metrics Toggle: Users can choose which metrics (average return, standard deviation, positive percentage, and position size) are displayed in the table.
Dynamic Data Updates:
The indicator's data updates dynamically as new data becomes available. This means traders are always working with the latest analysis, which is crucial for making informed decisions in a fast-paced trading environment.
How to Use the Indicator
Customize Inputs and Settings:
Start by entering the starting year for analysis to define the historical range for evaluating seasonality.
Set the available capital, risk tolerance, margin rate, and maintenance rate to tailor the position size calculation to your financial situation and risk appetite.
Customize color settings for both positive and negative values to better visualize monthly trends.
Review Seasonal Patterns:
The heatmap and summary table will help you assess how different months have performed historically.
Use the projection boxes on the chart to visualize the expected monthly price movement based on historical averages.
Analyze Risk and Position Size:
- Review the Position Size metric for each month to determine the appropriate amount of capital to allocate.
The Adjusted Kelly Fraction helps to account for different market conditions (e.g., Fed stance) to ensure that position sizing is optimized in response to external factors.
Ignore Specific Months if Necessary:
If there are specific months that should not be included in the analysis, use the Ignored Months input to exclude them from the calculations.
Make Data-Driven Decisions:
By leveraging the average return, volatility (StDev), and positive return percentage, traders can identify which months are more likely to be favorable and adjust their trading strategy accordingly. The heatmap makes it easy to visualize trends, identify patterns, and determine which months are more reliable for trading.
Important Notes
Conclusion
The Seasonal Investing Indicator offers a powerful combination of seasonality analysis and risk-based position sizing, making it a valuable addition to any trader's toolkit. By presenting information through an intuitive heatmap, detailed metrics, and dynamic position sizing, this indicator helps traders make data-driven decisions while managing risk in a disciplined manner. It provides a flexible, interactive interface that can be customized to fit individual needs, making it suitable for both novice and experienced traders.
S&P 500 Index Market Exposure and Sector Insights The S&P 500 Index is currently in a confirmed uptrend as of October 4th, maintaining support above its 21-Day Moving Average (DMA) . With 4 distribution days , market conditions suggest some caution, but the overall uptrend remains intact.
Our current market exposure is recommended at 100% , reflecting confidence in the strength of the broader market.
Key Points:
Market Condition: The S&P 500 remains above the critical 21-DMA level, indicating continued positive momentum. This key support should be monitored in the coming sessions for signs of potential changes in market direction.
Industry Strength: Strong sectors include Technology and Communication Services , with leading stocks showing resilience. Weaker sectors such as Utilities and Consumer Staples are underperforming, with multiple stocks trading below their 50-DMA and 200-DMA .
Opportunities: Leading stocks continue to demonstrate setups for potential gains, with key players in the Tech sector showing strong bases or breakout potential. We advise focusing on high-quality setups in stronger sectors while avoiding underperforming segments trading below critical moving averages.
The key takeaway here is to remain invested in leading areas while keeping an eye on market exposure and distribution day count for any shifts in sentiment.
Let us know—are you focusing on defensive sectors, or do you see opportunities in growth industries?
Disclaimer: The information provided here is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you could lose some or all of your investment. Always do your own research and consult with a professional financial advisor before making any trading decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Market might push higher in the short term, but....Market has refused to fall in the past few weeks. Whatever Fed is doing is working in the short term. With US election around the corner, it is highly unlikely the market will make any drastic moves until the end of this year. Seasonality is also on the side of the bulls. Geopolitical headwinds have stalled the progress but couldn't turn the tide; for now. The path of least resistance is up, and we will most likely see the run up to fib level resistance at 6300 before the end of year.
Market maybe also foreseeing turmoil right after US election. No matter who wins, the opposing party will most definitely fight the results; specially if it is close. There might be civil unrest and riots and markets do not like that. This could be the backdrop for the primary wave 4 drop which could last 6 to 8 months until the situation calms down and regular life ensues. even in ending diagonal situation, wave 4 might not come all the way down to wave 1 territory. And bearish sentiment will most definitely will be the prevalent one. Market might do what no one expects and put in another high by end of 2026 and make everyone bullish again only to start the super cycle correction.
I have no idea how bad the super cycle correction will be and how we will survive it. But one thing for sure, it is coming!
