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E-mini S&P 500 Futures (CME) (OANDA EU Clients)

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US500.PRO.OTMS trade ideas

SPx 6H / Bullish Area, With strong Volatility Continued Market Volatility Stock Index Futures Extend Rebound as U.S. Recession Fears Ease The S&P 500 (SPX) has stabilized within a bullish trend, targeting 5,363 and 5,412 in the near term. Current volatility and technical indicators suggest bullish momentum. Bullish Scenario: As long as the price trades above 5,327, the bullish trend is likely to continue toward 5,412. Bearish Scenario: If the price drops below 5,327, it could signal a downtrend, with the potential to decline toward 5,260. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 5,327 - Resistance Levels: 5365, 5412, 5450 - Support Levels: 5291, 5260, 5214 Today's Expected Trading Range: The price is anticipated to fluctuate between 5,291 and 5,412. Direction: The outlook remains bullish as long as the price stays above 5,327.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
1
What I'm looking for today in The LeapAll my charts today look like this: All the prices are currently in the chop zone (R2 to S2) and with the trendlines in the same relative positions, there isn't an obvious break of trend right now (or not one I'd take, being in the chop zone). I've got alerts on R4 with the hope of a long on any (I think Oil is most likely; it seems to have more room to move. But the markets are nothing if not surprising) depending on what they look like at the time. I won't be looking at anything else today.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by the_other_shore
Continue To Monitor 5390 For Bulls and BearsWe are currently 1.5 trading days away from our original market top call, but this analysis will cover any new developments. Wave A appeared to have a good 5 wave structure with wave 3 having an extension. Wave B retraced 73% of wave A's movement quicker than expected. Wave C has most likely completed at least the first two waves and possibly as much as 4 waves. Wave 2 retraced around 64% of wave 1 and as wave 3 is currently marked, it extended 304% of wave 1. I have marked wave 3 based on my wave 3 indicator at the bottom. The shorter arrow pointing down depicts a wave 3 of 3 and the larger arrow depicts the end of a wave 3. The gap in the blue painted backgrounds at the bottom is the distinguishing feature of two separate wave 3s being signaled instead of just one wave 3. The retracement off of the signaled wave 3 was very quick although it was a 20% retracement and quite possibly the end of wave 4. If these four waves have concluded, wave 5 and the market could top as early as Friday. I will walkthrough the levels on the far right first to determine a possible top. The furthest right values are retracements from the original market top from mid-July. If the index moves back to the all-time high, it would have retraced 100%. A common retracement could be between 38.2%-61.8%. The next column left of this is the movement extension of C from wave A which topped at 5336.20. Basically, wave C should finish somewhere above 5336.20 which the index has now surpassed and therefore is capable of topping at any time. The next leftmost column are movement extensions from wave 3's movement inside of wave C. Once again, we are already above wave 3's top (5333.70) and capable of ending at any time. I try to find common levels among these three columns and monitor the index as it approaches. A 50% retracement of the macro wave 1 would occur at 5387.30, while an extension of wave A would of 123.6% is at 5393.31, coincides with a 138.2% extension of wave 3 at 5392.57. This very tight zone is certainly one to monitor for a top and it is not far away at the time of this analysis. I try to make similar identifications in other symbols to get a better read of the S&P500 index. Japan is moving the same, although it is unclear if they have completed wave 3 of C yet. They will most likely see more movement as their trading day gets in full swing during the overnight hours for North America. They may continue the momentum observed from America's Thursday session. Without marking their completed wave 3 with certainty, their area of commonality is between 37705-37782. JP Morgan Chase makes things more interesting because it is not clear if we are still in macro wave 1 or macro wave 2. The case for macro wave 1 has it in a micro wave 3 of C albeit in wave 4 of macro wave 1 here: If this holds true, the S&P 500 may not be in the correct place. If JPM is actually inline with the current wave structure as the index, waves 4 and 5 were very abbreviated based on the location of the wave 3 of 3 signals from early August. This alignment would slightly alter the retracement lines to the far right as seen here: The area of commonality is around 211.30 which is almost too much of a movement over the next 1-2 days for this stock. Amazon appears to fall inline with the theory of ending macro wave 2 soon. It has a target area around 170.5-171.32 and another much higher at 175.52-176.35. Based on the lack of obvious agreement, it is difficult to determine where the market is. I will continue to monitor the initial theory that the market topped in mid-July and has completed a five wave structure down and is about to finish a three wave structure up in the coming days. If the levels pointed out here are significantly surpassed, the market could continue upward to new all-time highs once again. Another downward reversal on or before Monday likely points to a new index low between 4100-4700 within the next month.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by StockSignaler
S&P500 crashing. Will it benefit from a September RATE CUT??The S&P500 index (SPX, illustrated by the blue trend-line) has been under heavy selling pressure in the past 3 weeks and a September Fed Rate Cut is already priced at 95%. But will the index benefit from such action? A detailed look into the past 35 years of recorded Yield Curve (US10Y-US02Y) price action, shows that when it flattens and rebounds, the Fed steps in and cuts the interest rates (orange trend-line). As you see on that 1M chart though, this hasn't always been beneficial for stocks as especially for September 2007 and January 2001, it took place parallel to the Housing and Dotcom Crises. The Inflation Rate (black trend-line) however seems to be at a low level that is consistent with market bottoms and not tops. As a result, it appears that it is more likely we are in a curve reversal that is consistent with bull trend continuation for the stock market, after short-term corrections, in our opinion either post June 2019 (ignore the COVID crash, which is a once in 100 years non-technical event) or pre-2000. So to answer the original question, we believe there are more probabilities that a September rate cut will do more good to the stock market than harm. Just as a side-note, based on this chart, our sentiment is that the current AI-led rally will be similar to the internet rally of the mid-90s that eventually led to the Dotcom crash of 2000. Your thoughts? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
2
Look at the Forest, not the treeBulls take the steps, Bears jump from the window. August has seen a very aggressive correction in the market. The question now is where are we now at. To know it, look at the forest, and don't get lost looking at a tree. The market has been in a series of Higher Highs / Higher Lows, the book definition of an Uptrend. The year 2022 witnessed a bear correction, it was closely equivalent to the one we saw at the start of the pandemic, the difference was that the Pandemic shutdown the economy and the correction was sharp and very aggressive, so the "V Shaped" recovery, after the humongous injection of capital it had (root of the inflation we witnessed afterwards). The one in 2022 was a slow motion bearish correction that touched the support trend and rebounded to keep on making All Time Highs #ATH. After the 2023 and half 2024 rally we're still on an uptrend, the main trend line is still intact, which is good news, as long as it holds a relief rally is expected. We have a weakening momentum, which means the direction of the trend is still up, but slower. Since we're at the "Higher for Longer" interest rate policy, the market will create liquidity to keep pushing higher and see if it can make another ATH, or if this will consolidate trading in the range. The markets move in tandem, and they follow the fractal principle of "the weakest moves first". Let's see which small markets move first and on which direction, this will give us a lead on where this market will be moving. I'm inclined to think about a range bound trading, until the support around 4700 is broken and it fails to go back to its previous highs. A bearish momentum and the break of the support will signal a Bearish market, until then the old saying #BTFD "Buy the Freaking Dip" applies. "The Trend is your Friend, until that nasty bend at the End."
SP:SPXLong
by Madrid
SPX Monthly (RSI Bearish Divergence: Bear Market Confirmed!)➖ Sometimes we are strong on theory, we give you lots of text and content in relation to the charts and signals. This is done for your entertainment. ➖ At other times, we keep it extremely simple. This is done for your convenience. 👉 These are bearish patterns showing up on the S&P 500 Index chart. ➖ Monthly SPX chart: Higher high (2024 vs 2021), rising wedge and rounded top patterns. ➖ Monthly RSI strong bearish divergence: 2021 vs 2024 These signals are pointing toward a strong correction (bear-market). Prepare accordingly. Thank you for reading. Namaste.
SP:SPXShort
by AlanSantana
2
S&P 500 Faces Deep Retracement Amid Global TensionsThe S&P 500, after reaching an almost all-time high of $5670, has begun a notable retracement. This decline follows a "Red Monday" and escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflicts in the Middle East and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. These factors have contributed to the current downward trend, triggering a deeper correction. From a seasonal analysis perspective, this type of correction is both expected and well-documented. Historically, the S&P 500 has shown a tendency to experience retracements between July and the end of October, regardless of its preceding bullish trend. This pattern suggests that the current decline may not be an anomaly but rather part of a predictable cycle. Investor fears and potential misinterpretations of the broader economic scenario could exacerbate this retracement. The psychological impact of global conflicts and economic uncertainty often leads to heightened market volatility and increased selling pressure. Technically, we have identified key demand areas around $5000 and lower at $4900. These levels could serve as potential support zones where buyers may re-enter the market, providing a possible halt to the decline. Given the current market dynamics and seasonal patterns, we are strategically looking to open a short position, anticipating further downward movement in the S&P 500. In summary, the S&P 500 is undergoing a significant correction influenced by global geopolitical tensions and historical seasonal patterns. While this retracement aligns with expected trends, it underscores the importance of careful market analysis and strategic positioning in response to evolving economic and geopolitical factors. ✅ Please share your thoughts about S&P500 in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
TVC:SPXShort
by FOREXN1
1
S&P500 / Continued Volatility in the MarketsContinued Volatility in the Markets Investors should brace themselves for continued market whiplash, as Thursday's trading session indicates that volatility remains a significant concern. The S&P 500 (SPX) has stabilized within a bearish trend, targeting 4923 soon. The current volatility and technical indicators suggest bearish momentum. Bullish Scenario: For a shift to a bullish trend, the price needs to stabilize above 5260, potentially reaching 5291 and 5327. Bearish Scenario: As long as the price trades below 5214, the bearish trend is expected to continue toward 5130 and 5040. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 5214 - Resistance Levels: 5260, 5281, 5327 - Support Levels: 5130, 5040, 4925 Today's Expected Trading Range: The price is anticipated to fluctuate between 5215 and 5130. Direction: Downward
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
Will the Stock Market Crash Continue? My Trading ideasOn the macro level, the Bank of Japan says it won't raise rates when the market's unstable, which helped calm the market this morning. But rising tensions in the Middle East are making investors nervous. I think in these shaky times, it's smart to spread out your investments and focus on safer bets like healthcare, consumer goods, and utilities. You might also consider using options to protect against short-term losses. Now let's check s&p 500 from technical aspect. The price is moving in an overall bearish market, but recently, it be supported by previous high volume candle area. Now the point we may need to pay attention is the yesterday's bearish engulfing pattern, since the price started to drop after this pattern of previous callback. Therefore, the price may continue to go bearish later. And traders who are interested in short trading, like me, may be a good timing to watch now.
SP:SPXShort
by xugina78
SPX500The S&P 500 is showing a stair-step upward movement, primarily rebounding during non-active U.S. trading sessions. Key factors to watch: - The market tends to recover when the U.S. session is closed, and corrects slightly when it reopens. This is due to residual selling pressure from retail investors during active hours. - Strong resistance is seen around 5400 points, where previous declines started. A potential pullback to test support around 5100-5200 would create an ideal setup for a more robust rebound. - Potential Iran-Israel conflict could create short-term volatility around August 12, potentially triggering a market pullback. - Upcoming data on August 14 will influence market movements. Expected low inflation supports future rate cuts, providing a favorable environment for long-term growth.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Lazy-Lizard
#ES #SP500 (Y24.P2.E1). A few scenariosHi traders, I did short the rising wedge and now took profit. This can play out in a few scenarios in my opinion and its difficult to say. Scenario 1) We have our selling climax that go the AR and this could be looking for our ST test phase B as part of the accumulation structure OR Scenario 2) its creating a macro bear flag of some sort and we are saying here, a channel in orange for now, Part of a 5 wave count rather than a 3 wave count. We have our ABC count confirmed as C hits our 1.618 fib extension but is it a 5 wave count. Bitcoin is in the same scenario in this perspective. Difficult for anyone to say. So I will just trade the range until the puzzle is clearer. All the best, S.SARI CUP and HANDLE Target hit - profit taking ABC correction Is it a wave 5 to the downside Potential reversal scenario
OANDA:SPX500USD
by ssari
SPX500 ,, UPDATE CHARTDowntrend Unfortunately, I am not too optimistic about the chart and while it’s inside a downtrend, I will not get any buying position. All the time big bearish or bullish candles have a lot of signs for us. In the chart you can see several big bearish candles that show the market is not reliable to buy something. Every movement toward up could be a correction in this downtrend. The next support is about the 5000 and then the area between 4700-4900 will be a very strong zone, hope not goes there.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by pardis