Bear market...?I could give 2 target prices for the S&P500: 4404300 or 3800-3600, depending on the macroeconomic and geopolitical events that will follow.
US500.PRO.OTMS trade ideas
S&P 500 drop to key support area? callback for today?On the macro front, the slowing labor market data has increased the likelihood of a rate cut. Currently, the market sees a 99.5% chance of a 50 basis point cut by the Fed in September. Some traders even believe there’s about a 60% chance of an emergency 25 basis point cut within the week.
Technically, S&P 500 index has already broken below the downtrend line, and dropped to a key support area with high volume. And the previous high double confirmed the strength of this support area.
Therefore, the price might get a short-term callback in this area today if it cannot be broken.
Make sure to hit that follow and boost button so you won't miss any updates.
SPX. When can we catch the "falling knife?! 6/August/24SP500 index could be starting "deep retracement'" by end of Sept at least. What do we think the low cycle number 10 for the SPX's price would be by end of Sept by example? P/S There are few reasons for THE FED to cut cate. Not just due to high inflation, 1 possibility reason most likely would be "to rescue" the market! What make FED "Need to" "rescue market"?! Even before Sept?! Unless "stock crash"!
SPx - Stocks Rebound in a Dramatic TurnaroundStocks Rebound in a Dramatic Turnaround
Global stocks rallied on Tuesday, partially reversing some of the previous day's significant declines. The market is expected to consolidate between 5,281 and 5,192.
This advanced sentence retains the original meaning while using more sophisticated language.
Bullish Scenario:
For a shift to a bullish trend, the price needs to stabilize above 5320, potentially reaching 5372 and 5409.
Bearish Scenario:
As long as the price trades under 5281 means will continue the bearish trend toward 5195 and 5169
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 5260
- Resistance Levels: 5281, 5320, 5372
- Support Levels: 5126, 5192, 5168
Today's Expected Trading Range:
The price is anticipated to fluctuate between the resistance of 5285 and the support of 5121.
previous idea:
SPX Will Go Higher From Support! Buy!
Take a look at our analysis for SPX.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 5,186.63.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 5,319.70.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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$SPX Trading Range for Tuesday August 6thSP:SPX Trading Range for Tuesday August 6th
Volatility is back. Tomorrow's Trading range is WIDE.
Look Out Below Market Trends Up This WeekWorking on very preliminary theories of where we could be based on the movement so far. Check out my last analysis from a month ago to see why I thought we were due a major market correction.
Theory has us in:
Supercycle 2, Cycle wave 1, Primary wave 1, Intermediate wave 2.
Assuming we are in the very early stages of a large macro level wave 1 down (Cycle 1), we are likely inside the first wave (Primary 1) of that movement. We may have just completed Intermediate wave 1 down, however, the pace was so fast it may still be early in Intermediate wave 1.
The wave 3 reversal indicators signaled much more than normal which means they all called the end of the impulse waves correctly, or the first group in the currently marked Minor wave 1 was inaccurate. As it is laid out now, Minor wave 2 retraced around 50% of wave 1's drop. Wave 3 extended nearly 161% of wave 1's movement. Wave 4 retraced nearly all of wave 2's movement and wave 5 extended nearly 261% of wave 3's movement. These are all close to Fibonacci movements commonly used for identifying reversals. Although Minor wave 3 as marked is short at just 12 bars long, wave 5 was 11 bars long (as marked) maintaining a wave principle on 3's length. There is enough here to consider Intermediate wave 1's movement complete. Confirmation of this theory should occur if Intermediate wave 2 sees general upward movement over the next week. Intermediate wave 1 currently measures 82 bars. 38.2% of this length is 31.324 bars, so I have rounded up to 32 bars for a premature potential length of Intermediate wave 2.
As far as real world catalysts, the primary earth mover is likely in the Middle East. The world is bracing for a coordinated Iranian strike against Israel. A few articles today mentioned the Tisha B'Av which takes place on August 12-13 as a potential retaliation date. This would begin around bar 33 for Intermediate wave 2.
IF we truly are in the early stages of a wave 2, a third wave with a simple common wave extension of 161.8% would place a low at 4731.93. The next normal wave 3 retracement at 261.8% would put a low at 4150. IF we are truly in a longer term major bearish cycle, 4150-4731 is a normal move here. A catalyst to get the market there could be significant unrest in the Middle East capable of not only disrupting energy supply, but shipping, manufacturing, and elevated geopolitical tensions.
August SPY seasonalitySPY is seasonally weak in August. Thus the pullback is timely, especially after such a rally.
Levels to look out for is 5200-5300 which constitutes about 5-8% DD.
If it drops to 5100, then it's truly a gift to start leveraging into the EOY election rally.
SPX Elliot Wave Levels To WatchHello Traders,
I am posting this Weekly Elliot Wave guide on the SPX to show what levels to watch for potential targets. Lets see how well this works into the future :)
SPX in daily charts Hello
It's been a while the I am thinking to close my trading view page. If I am explaining it is to make a plan for some ideas I have published. It means that I have published a few ideas that might happen and because they are in big time frame I need to give a plan for next steps when I am not here anymore so please let me know if any of my ideas that was helpful for you.
For this chart I predict another correction as wave IV and then last rise as wave V. This scenario would take a few months and then we might have a deep correction.
Another scenario is to make higher levels and then we see a main correction.
I expect deeper corrections for this movement.
For investors, I recommend not to invest in stocks for long terms and please consider that these highs that main indices are experiencing comes from a minority high cap companies.
For traders, it does not matter where market goes (short is mostly better) and they will find a way to make profits.
Be safe and Happy.
S&P500 INDEX (SPX500): Waiting For Breakout⚠️The SPX500 is consolidating near a strong horizontal resistance level on the hourly chart. It has formed a pattern resembling an inverted head and shoulders, indicating a potential bullish reversal.
A breakout above the neckline of the pattern, confirmed by a 1-hour candle closing above 5,231 - 5,256, is likely to trigger the next upward movement.
The targets for this bullish move are the resistance levels at 5,324 and 5,400.
TRADE RECAPS 11R DAYTrade recap for Tokyo, short JP225 and USDJPY, then two-way flow in SP500 in New York.
Drop after Q3 peak
Everything is on the chart. The average pullback is 12.27% . In even years, the average pullback is 16.68% . The end of the line connecting the 23 March 2020 bottom and the 2023-2024 peaks at the end of Q3 is 5890. Over 10% correction is expected. There is a high probability that it could eventually turn into a crash.
Does the Market Rally When the Fed Begins to Cut Rates?The relationship between rate cuts and the stock market, as illustrated in the provided graph, shows that major market declines often occur after the Federal Reserve pivots to lower interest rates. This pattern is evident in historical instances where the Fed's rate cuts were followed by significant drops in the S&P 500. Several factors contribute to this phenomenon, which are crucial for investors to understand.
Economic Weakness:
Rate cuts typically respond to economic slowdown or anticipated recession.
Each instance of the Fed pivoting to lower rates (1969, 1973, 1981, 2000, 2007, 2019) corresponds to significant market declines soon after.
Rate cuts signal concerns about economic health, causing investors to lose confidence, as reflected in the graph.
Delayed Impact:
Rate cuts do not immediately stimulate the economy; it takes time for their effects to propagate.
The graph shows that the majority of the market decline occurs after the Fed's pivot, indicating that initial rate cuts were insufficient to halt the downturn.
During this lag period, the market may continue to decline as economic data reflects ongoing weakness.
Investor Sentiment:
Rate cuts can trigger fear among investors, who interpret the move as an indication of severe economic issues.
The graph shows substantial percentage drops in the S&P 500 following each pivot, demonstrating how negative sentiment can exacerbate declines.
The fear of a worsening economy leads to a sell-off in stocks, contributing to further market drops.
Credit Conditions:
During economic stress, banks may tighten lending standards, reducing the effectiveness of rate cuts.
Post-rate cut periods in the graph align with times of economic stress, where credit conditions likely tightened.
Businesses and consumers may not be able to take advantage of lower borrowing costs, limiting economic recovery and impacting the market negatively.
Historical examples such as the crises in 2000 and 2007 highlight substantial market drops after rate cuts, as seen in the graph. In both cases, the rate cuts responded to bursting bubbles (tech bubble in 2000, housing bubble in 2007), and the economic fallout was too severe for rate cuts to provide immediate relief. The graph underscores that while rate cuts aim to stimulate the economy, they often follow significant economic downturns. Investors should be cautious, recognizing that initial market reactions to rate cuts can be negative due to perceived economic weakness, delayed policy impact, and deteriorating sentiment.
SPX: Sector Performance and Economic OutlookThe chart shows the strong past performance of the Energy and Technology sectors, which have significantly outpaced the S&P 500. Technology saw a 55% increase in 2023 and continued to perform well into 2024. Energy, despite some volatility, remains strong due to high oil prices and investments in production infrastructure. On the other hand, sectors like Healthcare, Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Real Estate have underperformed, showing steady but modest growth compared to other sectors.
Looking ahead, the outlook for Technology, Energy, and Consumer Discretionary sectors is bearish. Rising inflation and the potential for a recession are expected to drive these sectors lower. Meanwhile, Healthcare, Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Real Estate are anticipated to continue their upward trend due to their defensive nature. Financials, Communications, and Industrials are likely to remain stable without significant moves until there are interest rate cuts. Given the current economic conditions, it's prudent to focus on more stable investments amid ongoing inflation and recession concerns.
Can futures predict market movements?I was wondering if futures can predict market movement. Here's a monthly chart showing two values:
* green: the difference between ES futures and SPX, divided by SPX to keep it proportional in a rising market
* orange: SPX itself
It shows:
1. Futures fluctuate over the 3-month cycle
2. SPX declines after peaks in the difference between ES futures and SPX - see 2001, 2008, 2018. Over-optimism?
3. But there was no peak before the decline in 2022 !?
4. Bulls want to see the difference well below zero - see 2003-04, 2001-17 and 2020-22
5. In 2023 the difference between ES futures and SPX is back to levels seen in 2000 and 2007, which preceded drops in SPX of around 46% and 52%
Not trading advice. Do you own research
