S&P 500: Temporary correction due to rising bond yields?The U.S. stock market, especially the S&P 500, has experienced a recent correction due to rising 10-year Treasury yields, which have reached their highest level since July. While this increase has put pressure on stocks, some analysts believe the impact could be temporary.
The S&P 500(Ticker AT:USA500), which has shown positive performance in 2024, continues to be driven by a strong economy and solid corporate results. Despite the recent downturn, there is optimism about the market's upside potential, especially in cyclical sectors such as financials and industrials. The expectation is that economic growth and corporate earnings will continue to support the index, despite concerns about higher bond yields.
The rise in yields reflects the strength of the U.S. economy, which has raised concerns among some investors, but does not appear to be enough of an obstacle to slow the market's long-term rally. In recent years, the market has shown resilience in the face of high yields, suggesting that this correction may only be a temporary adjustment.
Sectors with upside potential based on the context of recent market movements:
1. Technology:
o Technology companies such as Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia remain key, especially with the growth of artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and demand for cloud software and services.
2. Energy:
o With the rise of renewable energy and the global energy transition, companies like ExxonMobil (in the traditional sector) and NextEra Energy (in clean energy) may have upside potential in this environment.
3. Healthcare:
o Biotech and pharmaceutical companies such as Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson maintain an attractive profile thanks to innovation in medical treatments and the stability of the sector.
4. Financials:
o Banks and insurers tend to benefit from rising Treasury yields, with companies like JPMorgan Chase or Bank of America being in a good position to take advantage of a strong economic environment.
5. Industrials:
o With global infrastructure improving and demand picking up, companies like Caterpillar and Honeywell have room for growth.
6. Real Estate:
o Despite interest rate sensitivity, companies like Prologis (logistics real estate) are well positioned for an environment of expanding logistics needs, driven by e-commerce.
Looking at the S&P500 chart, it is currently located in the upper zone of the channel at 5,827.90 points near the historical high of 5,886.35 points. The initial support zone of the current impulse is located at 5,151.97 points, with other support zones above that position the last support at 5,636.80 points. The price bell control point (POC) is located precisely in this zone. It would not be unusual to see the index looking for 6,000 points and executing a healthy price correction in the direction of the indicated control point. If this price were to be pierced to the downside, the next control zone would be located at 5,398.75 points. At the moment, it appears that bonds seem to be exerting more pressure than expected, the strong economy could keep the index in this bullish directionality.
In summary, although the rise in Treasury yields has impacted the S&P 500, the uptrend is expected to continue, driven by a favorable economic environment and solid corporate earnings.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
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US500.PRO.OTMS trade ideas
S&P500 Has it topped?The S&P500 index (SPX) is ahead of critical crossroads for the short-term as the Bullish Megaphone pattern that is in effect since April 01, is showing strong signs of topping.
Even though the price isn't on the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Megaphone, the 1D MACD formed a Bearish Cross today and practically is repeating the sequence of the index' previous Leg from April 19 to July 17, which ended also on a MACD Bearish Cross.
As you can see besides the Bearish Cross, even the price action between the two fractals has gone through very similar phases. The current Bullish Leg is in the form of a Rising Wedge.
Despite the Bearish Cross, the trend remains bullish within this pattern until the Wedge's bottom breaks. As a result, it is more likely to see at least 6000 next. If however the price breaks below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), we will have a confirmed sell signal at hand, based on which we will short and target 5600.
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S&P correction has startedFinally seeing a market correction
Bullish structure has been broken
Expect at least a pullback into $5600
SPX 6440 in march then massive 50% correctionIn my view SPX started a short term bearish correction targeting 6650 then bullish trend will restart to target 6440 area in march then I expect a massive bearish move to 3200 in 2026
SPX: Liquidity Zone Breakout or Support Breakdown AheadTechnical Analysis:
The price is testing the support line after pulling back from the liquidity zone around 5,863.
If the price holds above the pivot line and breaks the liquidity zone, it could rally toward 5,939.
A failure to hold the support line could lead to a bearish move, with potential targets at 5,781 and 5,732.
Watch for confirmation at the liquidity zone for a bullish breakout or breakdown from the support line for further downside movement.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5832
Resistance Levels: 5863, 5891, 5939
Support Levels: 5803, 5781, 5732
Trend Outlook:
Bearish below 5832
Bullish above 5832
SPX H&SHead and shoulder pattern will confirm or deny here shortly. The target for the H&S breakout would fill the gap below. It has made multiple bearish divergences lately making new highs. Seems like we are due for a healthy pull back.
US500 likely bearish in the long termIf the price fails to break above 5825 and starts to reverse, it may retest 5755 or drop lower to 5730. A stop loss can be set above 5850.
For a bullish scenario to play out, the price needs to break above 5825 and sustain above 5850, targeting 5880 or higher. However, current indicators suggest limited upside in the immediate term without stronger volume support.
Are Stocks Topping for Now?The S&P 500 has had a dramatic run, with gains in the last six weeks and 10 of the last 11 months. But will the run continue?
The first pattern on today’s chart is last week’s low around 5804. The index crossed under it and stayed there yesterday, producing a lower low on the weekly chart. Ending the week below that level could resemble moments like late-July or early April, when pullbacks followed.
Second, the index got rejected at or near highs on October 15 and 17. Those solid candles (marked with white arrows) may reflect selling pressures.
MACD also turned lower and prices closed below the 8-day exponential moving average, which could suggest momentum is slowing.
Next, the Nasdaq-100 stalled below its July peak. Does that reflect exhaustion among the biggest stocks in the market?
This lethargic price action in the big growth names contrasts with Treasury yields pushing higher. That may also be a risk to equities and risk assets in general.
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SPX to turnaround?US500 - 24h expiry
Broken out of the wedge to the downside.
The formation has a measured move target of 5773.
An overnight positive theme in Equities has led to a higher open this morning.
Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
The sequence for trading is lower lows and highs.
We look to Sell at 5847 (stop at 5865)
Our profit targets will be 5802 and 5792
Resistance: 5845 / 5847 / 5857
Support: 5815 / 5800 / 5785
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SPX has broken minor trend line, looking vulnerable to downside.Intraday Update: The SPX has broken a minor trend line from August to present day. We are also at horizontal support of highs from early October. A move below here would put the 5707 then 5586 levels in play.
SPX500 ,,, PullbackUptrend
The market with corrections is more reliable than without them.
In my view, this is a small correction and a pullback to a broken level. I am waiting for a reaction and a good trigger for getting new buying positions on the S/R zone between 5760-5790.
And the market has not promised to listen to us all the time, so it can return right from here. Having good signs for coming back to rising is our priority.
US500The US500 (S&P 500 Index) is experiencing a downturn due to economic uncertainty and profit-taking by investors. Key support levels will be crucial in determining if the bearish trend persists.
SPX at Great Depression and Dot-Com Crash LevelsCurrent deviation from long term mathematical model at the top of trend only reached twice in the last 100 years; once during the Great Depression and once during the top of the Dot-Com bubble.
Mathematical model = Ratio of Close to smoothed 300 Week SMA (SMA 10 of SMA 10 of SMA 70 Week Close)
Bulls and Bears zone for 10-23-2024S&P 500 has been range bound last several days.
Any test of yesterday's Close could provide direction for the day.
Level to watch: 5870 ---5872
Reports to watch:
US Existing Home Sales 10:00 AM ET
US Beige Book 2:00 PM ET
S&P500 Index -Liquidity Zone consolidationTechnical Analysis:
The price is currently trading within a liquidity zone between 5,849 and 5,891, showing consolidation. A retest of this liquidity zone is likely, with a potential rejection if the price fails to break above 5,891.
If the price breaks and holds above the 5,891 level, the next target would be the resistance line at around 5,939.
On the downside, a rejection from the liquidity zone could send the price back down towards the support line near 5,825 or even further towards 5,781.
Correct Direction:
Bearish: If the price fails to break above 5,891 and the liquidity zone holds as resistance, the price is likely to move towards 5,825 or lower.
Bullish: If the price breaks and closes above 5,891, a bullish continuation towards 5,939 is expected.
The overall bias is bearish unless there is a confirmed breakout above the liquidity zone.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5863
Resistance Levels: 5891, 5915, 5939
Support Levels: 5836, 5807, 5781
Trend Outlook:
Bearish below 5863
Bullish above 5891
DreamAnalysis | SPX500 at a Crossroads Key Trading Strategies✨ Today’s Focus: SPX500 (US500) – A Key Market Driver
We dive into recent price movements and analyze critical market levels to identify potential trends.
📊 Current Market Overview:
The price is currently consolidating within the Previous Weekly Range, showing little movement for now. However, it's important to note that the Previous Month's High (PMH) has already been taken, and the market needs to accumulate more liquidity before making a decisive move—hence the consolidation.
🔴 What to Expect: Short-Term vs. Long-Term Scenarios
We'll explore both short-term and long-term outlooks, offering insights into bullish and bearish possibilities for day traders.
🗣 Short-Term Outlook:
In the short term, we may see a retracement into the Fair Value Zone or the Equilibrium (50% of the range). However, without significant information from higher timeframes, it's best to wait for lower timeframe confirmations before entering a trade.
🗣 Long-Term Outlook:
From a long-term perspective, the price may dip lower to absorb sell-side liquidity before continuing its upward trend.
🕓 Key Levels to Watch:
Keep an eye on these levels, which could impact price action:
- PMH: Previous Month High
- PML: Previous Month Low
- PWH: Previous Week High
- PWL: Previous Week Low
- BSL: Buy-Side Liquidity
- SSL: Sell-Side Liquidity
- Daily FVG: Fair Value Gap (Imbalance Zone)
These levels highlight potential liquidity absorption points and areas where price might rebalance. Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) are key zones for potential retracement before the market resumes its trend.
🔔 1Hour Outlook:
📈 Bullish Scenario:
For a bullish setup, we need the Previous Week Low (PWL) to be taken out, or we can use the lower timeframes to identify Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) levels. Once price sweeps these liquidity levels, we can look for an entry model to target the Buy-Side Liquidity, such as the Previous Week High (PWH).
📉 Bearish Scenario:
On the bearish side, lower timeframes are already offering potential entry models. With the monthly high (PMH) taken and a Smart Money Technique (SMT) divergence with the NASDAQ (US100), there’s a strong confluence for bearish continuation.
📝 Conclusion:
Stay flexible as market conditions shift. Monitor these key levels and setups closely to fine-tune your strategy and seize high-probability trading opportunities.
🔮 Looking Ahead:
Keep following as we track developments in NASDAQ, DXY, EUR/USD, and other major markets. Timely insights will be provided as trends unfold.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always perform your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
$SPX Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for 10.23.24Tomorrow’s implied move in SPX is between 5815 and 5885. That range comes from options and the 30-day average daily volatility, which aligns with Thursday’s implied move of 5805 to 5895. The first level to watch is the 35 EMA, which is cutting right across the trading range. It was below us at yesterday’s close, but depending on where futures open, it could be to the upside. Definitely keep an eye on that level.
The next level of resistance is around 5870. We briefly got above this level to make all-time highs at 5878.37, and we’ve seen it hold as resistance before and after making those all-time highs last week. If we get above 5870, the next target is the all-time high, with 5885 as the top of the implied move. 5895 is the top of the implied move on Thursday’s contract.
To the downside, if we can’t hold the 35 EMA, the next level to watch is 5825, which acted as support on both Monday and Tuesday. Below that, 5815 is the bottom of the implied move, and 5805 is the bottom of Thursday’s implied move. We also have the 30-minute 200 MA near the bottom of the trading range for the next two days, and with momentum still positive, that level could give us a technical bounce. Pair that with the support from last week around 5815, and it’s a good spot for a potential bounce.
The Stock Market Tends To Crash Around October —Historical Trend➖ In 1929, the stock market started a major decline around October.
➖ In 1973, the stock market peaked in January and produced a lower high in October and then a major crash.
➖ In 1987, the stock market crashed in October
➖ In the year 2000, the major decline started right around October.
➖ In 2007 the stock market peaked and a major crash happened in October 2008.
What's up with October?
The S&P 500 Index is now trading at All-Time Highs. Volume has been dropping since March 2009. It is now October 2024 and the world is at war...
Forever higher or market crash?
Imagine, can it top in October 2024 and then a crash in October 2025?
Based on past history, there are many potential variations for a bearish scenario.
Namaste.
6000 spx before EOMMaking a public call on SPX, based on the current political climate, and the oversold signals, I'm focused on a new ATH push from here. I think a move similar to September 9th or way back in early January is on the table right now.
I'm currently trading in the LEAP comp for TradingView and wanted to make a public call that aligns with a trade I'm taking. Any Idea posted is being actively traded if possible in the competition.
SPX500: Testing Support for Future UpsideHello,
VANTAGE:SP500 is approaching a retest of its support levels, and if confirmation occurs later for bullish upside, it could lead to more upside potential.
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
US Presidential Election Posted a sell analysis about 2 weeks ago.
US presidential election today.
Market is going to have a lot of volatility.
Might see the market goes up from here.
Past data shows that market tends do well.
I'm staying off the market this week
and wait for things to settle before looking for next setup.
Risk-on Risk-off Market Snapshot, 05/11/2024Election Jitters: U.S. Presidential Race Fuels Risk-Off Sentiment Amid Policy Uncertainty and Global Tensions
The U.S. presidential election is significantly influencing risk-on and risk-off sentiment as investors brace for potential shifts in policy that could impact economic and market stability. With the election approaching, uncertainty around the potential outcomes and their implications for fiscal, trade, and regulatory policies is driving a more cautious, risk-off sentiment among market participants.
In typical election cycles, markets tend to exhibit volatility as investors anticipate changes in the policy environment. For 2024, there is particular focus on key issues such as tax policy, technology regulation, healthcare, and foreign policy—all of which could have far-reaching impacts on sectors like tech, healthcare, energy, and financial services. Market participants are also considering the candidates' approaches to fiscal stimulus, which may affect economic growth projections and thus influence the overall risk environment.
Additionally, recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and ongoing conflict in Ukraine are intensifying risk-off behavior. Investors are favoring safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar, gold, and government bonds as they hedge against potential economic disruptions that might follow election results, especially if there are significant shifts in foreign policy.
However, specific sectors may also show risk-on tendencies if the anticipated policy shifts favor growth or deregulation in areas like infrastructure, clean energy, or technology. For example, market segments aligned with clean energy could see optimism, while regulatory uncertainties may weigh on tech stocks. Overall, the looming U.S. election is adding a layer of risk-off sentiment as investors weigh the prospects of economic shifts in a complex global landscape.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. The information provided is for general informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial or investment advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
