Bulls and Bears zone for 03-13-2025Yesterday, even though it was a down day; S&P 500 closed above its mid point of the days trading range.
Any test of yesterday's Close could provide direction for the day.
Level to watch: 5602 --- 5600
US500 trade ideas
Bearish Darvas Box? Here’s How I’m Trading It...Bearish Darvas Box? Here’s How I’m Trading It | SPX Market Analysis 13 Mar 2025
The market is stuck on repeat, playing the same song over and over. Drop, pause, drop, pause—sideways, down, sideways, down. This looks very much like a bearish Darvas box pattern.
And guess what? We nailed it (yesterday).
📌 SPX continues to stair-step lower, just as we anticipated.
📌 5650 remains a rock-solid resistance level—confirmed by Gamma Exposure.
📌 On Monday, we expected a sideways stall—and we got exactly that.
With this predictable rhythm, we locked in another live zero-day trade during my Fast Forward Mentorship call, hitting max profit by the end of the day.
Until a breakout forces a change, I’ll keep stacking bearish trades, watching pulse bars, and waiting for the next clean setup.
Viva la profits!
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Deeper Dive Analysis:
At this point, the market feels like it’s reading from a script—stair-step down, stall, stair-step down again.
And frankly? I’m not complaining.
📌 The Setup – Another Day, Another Bearish Move
From Monday’s analysis, we expected this exact movement—SPX meandering sideways after a drop, before setting up the next move.
5650 remains resistance, confirmed by Gamma Exposure.
5700 is the key level before I even think about bullish setups.
If we break lower, 5255 is still the daily breakdown target.
📌 The Trade – Zero-Day Profits, Executed to Perfection
With the market following our expected pattern, I took full advantage:
✅ Live zero-day trade executed during my Fast Forward Mentorship call. (see main blog for walkthrough)
✅ Plan was simple—sell premium at the range high, let the market do the work.
✅ Expired at max profit by the end of the day.
This is what happens when you trade with structure—no guessing, no chasing, just following the game plan and letting the market pay you.
📌 What’s Next? Playing the Game Until It Changes
Until SPX decides to break out, I’ll continue to:
Look for bearish entries, pulse bars, and breakouts.
Delay bullish plays until we clear 5700.
Stay patient and let the profits stack up.
Because when you have a system that works, you don’t need to force the market—just follow its lead.
Viva la profits!
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Fun Fact
📢 Did you know? The Darvas Box Trading Strategy was created in the 1950s by a professional ballroom dancer who turned $25,000 into $2.25 million in 18 months—all while travelling the world.
💡 The Lesson? Sometimes, the best traders aren’t even traders at first—but they know how to follow a system that works.
SPX500 Child of Nas100, Looking Short for the dayProbability: High
Position: Short
Context/Boundary: Daily
Bullish S&P500I expect another rally after a correction in stock market for the last month of the year as Santa rally!
Understanding Trump: chapter 3 - WAR and Waste of Defense BudgetWAR and Waste of Defense Budget
The United States operates more than 750 military bases worldwide and spends $886 billion annually on defense. It is the world's largest military spender.
Over the past 50 years, the U.S. has engaged in numerous wars around the world, pouring an enormous amount of money into conflicts. War is not just a military operation; it requires an overwhelming amount of financial resources.
Looking at history, the biggest reason for the downfall of past empires was territorial expansion, endless wars, and the increasing cost of warfare.
The Roman Empire, Spain, and Britain all followed the same pattern. They continuously fought wars, drained their national resources, and eventually collapsed.
When looking at America's recent wars, it seems to be heading in a similar direction.
U.S. War Spending Over the Last 50 Years
Gulf War (1990–1991): $61 billion
Somalia Civil War Intervention (1992–1994): $1.4 billion
Bosnian War Intervention (1995): $3 billion
Kosovo War Intervention (1999): $5 billion
Afghanistan War (2001–2021): $2.3 trillion
Iraq War (2003–2011): $1.9 trillion
Libya Military Intervention (2011): $1 billion
Syria Civil War Intervention (2014–present): $54 billion
Yemen Civil War Support (2015–present): $5 billion
Ukraine War Support (2022–present): $113 billion (as of 2024)
This is all the money the U.S. has spent on wars in recent years.
Considering that the Soviet Union collapsed after just one war in Afghanistan, it's quite remarkable that the U.S. has been able to engage in multiple wars and still sustain itself.
In the past, the U.S. was considered the world's police force. However, when looking at the wars listed above, not many of them resulted in positive outcomes.
Of course, if the U.S. had not actively intervened, there would have been far more ethnic conflicts, ideological wars, and massacres around the world.
In fact, the free trade system that emerged after World War II was only possible because of U.S. naval dominance.
Just like how we take the air we breathe for granted, if the U.S. had not been a dominant global power, international trade would have faced numerous problems and economic inefficiencies.
However, over the past 50 years, has the U.S's war campaigns wasn't successfully
Looking at wars like Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq, the U.S. spent enormous amounts of money, but the results were far from satisfactory.
They justified these wars by claiming to spread democracy and overthrow dictatorships, yet despite the sacrifices of many American soldiers, the post-war situations in these countries remained chaotic.
What’s Next for the U.S.?
Trump’s main goal seems to be reducing war spending.
This is an unfortunate news for Ukraine, but for the U.S., it is a strategic move to prevent itself from collapsing like Britain or the Roman Empire due to excessive military spending.
From my perspective, Trump is not aiming to not really reduce U.S. military presence around the world, but rather to maintain influence while making other countries pay more.
And eventually, the U.S. may choose not to engage in future wars.
His push for increased defense spending from NATO and Asian allies is part of this strategy.
SPX to dump 30% - 50% for Inflated Expectations in 2026I like to say the narrative follows the price . This was bound to happen after such an overheated year, couple years. Blame whomever you want, in the end its your wallet if you aren't ready to have your expectations met.
Best case scenario, the breakout of macro is confirmed after the retest (blue arrows). Worst, more likely case, it smashes down to confirm a double bottom with a strong foundation to form a macro support. The sawtooth can provide opportunities for volatile scalps, but its gonna get gnarly I can already tell.
Post market wrap after a strange dayThoughts about what might be next. We could have one more down, let's see how it plays out. Today's upmove was weak and couldn't confirm a rally.
Don't Miss Out We Predicted S&P 500 Drop to 5740 It Happened📉 Don't Miss Out – We Predicted S&P 500 Drop to 5740 , and It Happened! 🔥
In our previous recommendation, we clearly stated that S&P 500 would drop to 5740 , and it happened exactly as predicted, reaching the 61% Fibonacci level! ✅
🚨 Will You Wait Until You Fall with Losing Stocks? 🚨
The market doesn’t wait, and opportunities don’t last forever! If you’ve been following our recommendations, you’ve avoided the collapsing stocks we warned about.
⚠️ Don’t let the market get ahead of you – Follow our recommendations to stay on the winning side! 🔥💰
#SPX500 #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis #InvestmentOpportunities
US500 long setupBear move seems to be exhausted, downside move limited, looks like ready for a bounce and retest of 200MA from other side.
2 DTE Call Spread on SPX to finish the week out BearishWon on the last 4 trades, 3 out of the 4 where bearish directional, with 1 Iron Condor.
I think the markets are recovering, but the SPX is still weak... 2 DTE to finish out the week.
-5790 +5795 for 6.71% post fees
The bounceearly buyers were punished but I think we now can bounce and I explain why everything looks to be lining up for that. If we go lower, I'm wrong. I expect a target of 5700 minimum.
$SPX - Trading Levels for March 12 2025
30min 35EMA IS the level to watch. That level is a BEAST!!! It needs to be on your chart. I sold 5665/5695 at open and I have orders to add if we pop up but so far we are getting pushed down at the 35EMA
GL today, y’all
S&P INTRADAY reaction to US Inflation figuresUS equity indices reacted positively to the latest US inflation figures released earlier today, as the data pointed to a moderation in price pressures.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased to 2.8% year-over-year in February, down from 3.0% in January. This reading not only marked a decline but also came in below market expectations of 2.9%, signaling that inflationary pressures may be easing. On a monthly basis, the CPI increased by 0.2%, following a 0.5% rise recorded in January.
Similarly, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 3.1% year-over-year in February, down from 3.3% in the previous month. This print also fell short of analysts' forecasts of 3.2%, further supporting the view of moderating inflation. On a month-to-month basis, the core CPI edged up by 0.2%.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5713
Resistance Level 2: 5770
Resistance Level 3: 5807
Support Level 1: 5523
Support Level 2: 5480
Support Level 3: 5300
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SPX morning analysisTechnical analysis of SPX.
Bearish count/analysis presented, cleaned up to present important points.
Parallel channels frame price action since March 2020 low nearly perfectly, with key pivots pointed out. With count presented, ((B)) is 200% of ((A)).
End of ((B)) counted with impulse ending with ending diagonal wedge. Impulsive price action broke through pitchfork support, looking to see if support now becomes resistance.
If pitchfork median line (red line) cannot be tagged, should be taken as bearish sign, and return to October 2022 price as likely. If that idea plays out, looking for channels to provide support/resistance for price down towards March 2020 low.
Bearish & Boring? Maybe. Profitable? Definitely.Bearish & Boring? Maybe. Profitable? Definitely. | SPX Market Analysis 12 Mar 2025
You know that feeling when you wake up and wonder if you’re stuck in a time loop? Yeah, me too.
For what feels like the hundredth time, I’m reporting that the bear move is grinding lower. The difference? The profits keep stacking up—so I’m not complaining.
Yesterday’s rally was supposedly triggered by Canada pausing tariffs, but let’s be real—this market is looking for any excuse to bounce. Yet, the overall trend remains the same: a slow, stair-stepping drop. Based on this drop-pause-drop rhythm, I suspect we’re entering the next pause before another leg down.
My bear boots are full, my trade allocations are set, and I’m waiting for two tranches to exit profitably before considering any new plays. Until SPX clears 5850, the bullish setups stay on the shelf.
This is the good kind of waiting—the kind where the market moves for me instead of me chasing it.
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Deeper Dive Analysis:
If it feels like Groundhog Day, you’re not alone. The bearish grind continues, slowly pushing lower, delivering small but steady wins. Unlike a panic-driven crash, this move is unfolding in slow motion, keeping traders on edge, wondering if a rally is lurking around the corner.
📌 A Market Looking for an Excuse to Bounce
Yesterday’s rally attempt was supposedly fueled by news that Canadian tariffs were being paused, but let’s be honest—this market is desperate for any reason to move higher. The reality? The larger bearish structure remains intact.
Every bounce so far has been short-lived.
The market keeps following a drop-pause-drop pattern.
We’re likely entering the next "pause" phase before another move down.
📌 My Trading Approach—Locked, Loaded, and Waiting
Right now, my bear boots are full, meaning I’m not adding new positions until my current tranches exit profitably.
Two tranches are set to exit with profits by the end of the week.
If we push lower or continue sideways, I’ll take my exits and reassess.
Until SPX clears 5850, I won’t even think about bullish setups.
📌 What’s Next? The Good Kind of Waiting
There’s no need to chase trades or force new entries. I’m simply letting my plan play out. If the market continues its slow-motion decline, I’ll collect my wins, reload selectively, and wait for the next prime setup.
For now, I sit back and enjoy the show—because this time, the market is working for me, not against me.
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Fun Fact
📢 Did you know? In 2008, Porsche trapped hedge funds in one of the greatest short squeezes in history, briefly making it the most valuable company in the world—all thanks to a secretive stock manoeuvre.
💡 The Lesson? Markets don’t just move up and down—they can also turn traders inside out. The wrong bet at the wrong time can be devastating… unless, of course, you have a system that keeps you on the right side of the trade. 🚀
SPX support 5500SPX looks to be bouncing at around the 5500 level in the next few days. We would need actual bad earnings data/recession to break the support level
S&P500 Rebound: Glimpses of Stability in the Midst of a StormBy Ion Jauregui, Analyst ActivTrades
The S&P500 index has surprised everyone by rebounding after a historic day of declines. The volatility experienced last Monday, driven by uncertainty over new tariff measures, has begun to subside, giving a glimpse of a possible equilibrium in the US markets. Yesterday was a real hell for investors. Fears were triggered by the confirmation of plans to double tariffs on steel and aluminum, with particular stringency for imports from Canada. This announcement, part of a strategy of trade tightening, generated a domino effect that sent the S&P500 sharply lower, highlighting the market's sensitivity to economic policy decisions. Europe's response to the tariffs was swift with a subsequent statement from the European Commission with “swift and proportionate” countermeasures to U.S. imports.
However, yesterday's subsequent session saw an unexpected response. Activity on Wall Street showed a moderation in the initial panic, and several traders took the opportunity to buy back assets on attractive technical terms. This rebound not only suggests that the plunge may have been an overreaction, but also reflects the resilience inherent in one of the world's most closely watched markets. The White House, for its part, tried to calm the mood, insisting that the sharp drop was a “one-off” and not representative of the strength of the U.S. economy. Meanwhile, Trump himself, through his statements, continues to set the tone in the debate on the transition to a new economic paradigm, where the implementation of tariffs is only one of the edges of a broader strategy.
Looking ahead, the focus is on how trade measures will evolve and whether market responses will be able to sustain in the face of possible further turbulence. The partial recovery of the S&P500 is certainly an indication that traders are willing to ride out the uncertainty as long as signs of consistent, stability-oriented economic policy materialize.
Technical analysis
Looking at the trend of the index, the fall since February 21 has been extended. With a very pronounced fall this week of -4.05% being the fall since the beginning of the month of -7.33% and -9.34% since the beginning of the fall. Yesterday's bounces could change the game of bearish dynamics of the index indicating a possible brake to this rampant fall generating the entry of buyers into the market. The strongest triple bell zone is located in the area of 4,953 points, a range that tried to consolidate after the beginning of the fall. The most plausible zone for price recovery in case of a bulls' advance in the market. If we look at a long-term perspective, the stock has bounced off the September 11, 2024 price level and could have closed a bullish gap. But before moving to the third long term bell we have another prior range at the 5,755 area where the current checkpoint is located. The mid-range crosses have not given any kind of trend reversal signal, so it is very likely that this week will see a retest of the 5,548 price. There is no “two without three”. If this price does not hold it is possible that the price could pull back to 5,491.29 points as first resistance and second resistance at 5,378.48 points. RSI indicates a point of slight oversold at 44.30% so this could happen during this week of high volatility.
In short, the recent rebound is an encouraging sign in a context of high volatility, although the question remains as to whether this recovery will be sustained or simply a momentary respite in the midst of a still uncertain outlook.In the short term, the first year of the Republican administration looks highly volatile for the markets.
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SPX500 D1 | Strong bearish downtrendSPX500 is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 5,653.89 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 5,768.84 which is a level that sits above a pullback resistance and beyond the descending trendline.
Take profit is at 5,390.20 which is a swing-low support.
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1Hr Bear TL BO Pullback Watching for the backtest of the late day bullish breakout. I’m anticipating a H1 entry to retest the 5641 level. I’ll flip short if the H1 fails
SPX interesting convergence of trendlinesThis is so interesting, I had to share! Not in every correction I can find a strong convergence of trendlines. Eg in I couldn't find any convergence in March 2020 correction except for the standard horizontal price support. Pinch me in the comments if you think I am dreaming and wake me up
5400AMEX:SPY SP:SPX TVC:VIX analysis. I feel we completed another ABC today and we'll meltdown into 5400 for a bottom.
S&P500 -Weekly forecast, Technical Analysis & Trading IdeasMidterm forecast:
5870.56 is a major resistance, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be downtrend.
$S&P500
Technical analysis:
A peak is formed in daily chart at 6150.05 on 02/19/2025, so more losses to support(s) 5568.78, 5398.95, 5261.00 and more depths is expected.
Take Profits:
5677.80
5568.78
5398.95
5261.00
5122.47
4944.41
4800.00
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