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SPX500 Pattern Repeating with EERIE overlayThe REAL S&P500 Index is plotted here from the data on SP:SPX and FRED:CPIAUCSL which is CPI-All Urban Consumers which allows us to see the "REAL", or inflation-adjusted S&P500 (excluding dividends) over the long term. Most people forget the impact that inflation has on the price of stocks because it gets complicated and small increases in price compound significantly over the the long term. So, to get down to the impact of this pattern that I have reported on several times in the past (see links below), the market has had a long sequence of progress along with crises along the way in the form of financial panics, tax-law changes, banking system stress, real estate market collapses, trade wars and technological innovation cycles. To break it down into the pattern, take a note of the 1955-1985 time frame and notice how there is a "mode" across that time frame which touches 13 different years. In 1984 the market "expands" upwards as denoted by the yellow triangle, surging up by more than the previous year's range, which implies the start of a new trend. In this case, the trend is estimated to be 13 years because 13 years touched the same price. 1984 + 13 years sets up a new mode in 1997 which is where the new mode formed through 2012. In 2013, the market surged upwards or "expanded" higher to indicate a new 11 year uptrend since there were 11 different years that touched the mode as shown. The INTERESTING PART is that we had similar types of activities AFTER this new trend kicked off: Notice the yellow circle which encompasses the 1987 stock market crash and 1990 bear market in a wild, sideways, choppy market environment. The same thing also happened after the current uptrend started with the 2016 election, 2020 covid crisis and even later the 2022 bear market (which is outside the circle). The GREEN "BARS PATTERN" is a copy of the 1984-current market and then pasted to the start of the same structure in 2013 where the current uptrend started from the 'mode'. Look how the market has moved rather in-synch with this pattern and I haven't even adjusted it for the 2-less years at the mode or 4 less years overall for the pattern from 1955-1984 (20 total years vs 13 years at one price) vs the 1997-2012 (16 total years vs 11 at one price). We can start analyzing similar news and technological changes to look for interesting stories to compare the two time frames. See what you can find. The AI craze now is certainly similar to the development of the internet bubble in the late 1990's. We have certainly heard this comparison before but this nails down the comparison into a more structural pattern that can be analyzed and used for making general projections. I'll follow up on this and let me know if you have any questions. Tim 10/16/2024 10:19AM EST
SP:SPX
by timwest
5
Patience Pays Off: Key Strategies for Long-Term InvestorsInvesting is a fundamental pillar in building wealth and securing financial stability. Among the myriad strategies available, long-term investing stands out as one of the most reliable and rewarding. Unlike short-term trading, which seeks to capitalize on price fluctuations over days or weeks, long-term investing focuses on holding assets for several years, or even decades, to allow for substantial growth. This approach is deeply rooted in the principle of patience, which enables investors to navigate market volatility, leverage compounding returns, and achieve their financial goals. Patience is more than simply waiting; it requires discipline, confidence, and the ability to withstand short-term market turbulence. For long-term investors, patience plays a key role in benefiting from compounding returns, reducing transaction costs, and minimizing tax liabilities. The patience-driven investor is less prone to impulsive decisions and is better positioned to reach financial success over time. Understanding Long-Term Investing Long-term investing involves purchasing and holding assets like stocks, bonds, mutual funds, or real estate for extended periods—typically five years or more. The main objective is to benefit from the growth of the investment over time, whether through capital appreciation, dividends, or interest. Unlike short-term strategies, which aim for quick profits, long-term investing emphasizes steady and sustainable growth. Key to this approach is the power of compounding. Compounding occurs when earnings from investments are reinvested, generating additional returns. Over time, this snowball effect can lead to exponential growth. Long-term investing also benefits from lower transaction costs, as frequent buying and selling of assets is avoided. Furthermore, long-term capital gains are taxed at lower rates than short-term gains, offering additional financial advantages. While long-term investing still carries risks, particularly during market downturns, it provides the potential for recovery and continued growth. In contrast, short-term investors may face higher volatility and risk due to frequent trades and quick shifts in market sentiment. S&P500 from 1980 monthly chart Advantages of Long-Term Investing The long-term investing approach comes with several compelling advantages: Compounding Returns: The most powerful advantage of long-term investing is the compounding effect, where reinvested earnings generate additional returns. The longer the investment period, the more significant the compounding becomes. Even modest returns can lead to considerable wealth over time. Lower Costs: With fewer trades, long-term investors incur significantly lower transaction fees and commissions. This not only preserves capital but also enhances overall returns. Tax Efficiency: Long-term capital gains are generally taxed at a lower rate than short-term gains, leading to more favorable after-tax returns. The buy-and-hold strategy reduces the frequency of taxable events. Reduced Stress: Long-term investing minimizes the need for constant market monitoring, providing peace of mind. Investors don’t need to react to daily market swings, allowing them to remain focused on their long-term financial goals. Alignment with Financial Goals: Long-term investing is well-suited for achieving major financial milestones, such as funding retirement, education, or home purchases. It provides a structured and systematic approach to accumulating wealth over time. GC1! GOLD FUTURES From 1980 Monthly Chart Why Patience is Essential in Long-Term Investing Patience is the cornerstone of long-term investing, as it helps investors remain focused on their goals despite market fluctuations and emotional pressures. Here are key reasons why patience is critical: 1. Navigating Market Volatility Financial markets are inherently volatile, with asset prices fluctuating due to economic data, geopolitical events, and shifts in investor sentiment. While short-term investors may react to these movements, long-term investors recognize that volatility is part of the market cycle. Patience allows them to ride out these fluctuations, avoiding impulsive decisions and giving their investments time to recover and grow. By not panicking during downturns, long-term investors can stay committed to their strategy and avoid selling assets at a loss. 2. Compounding Returns Patience is vital in maximizing the benefits of compounding. Compounding requires time to work its magic, as reinvested earnings generate further returns. The longer an investor remains in the market, the greater the potential for compounding to significantly boost their wealth. Even modest annual returns can accumulate into substantial wealth over decades. 3. Behavioral Finance and Emotional Control Investing often involves emotional decision-making driven by fear, greed, and market noise. Behavioral finance studies show that emotions like panic during market downturns or overconfidence during rallies can lead to poor investment decisions. Patience helps investors manage these emotions by keeping their focus on long-term goals rather than short-term market movements. Investors who remain patient and disciplined are more likely to make rational decisions that align with their overall strategy. NDX Nasdaq 100 Index Monthly Chart Strategies to Cultivate Patience in Investing Maintaining patience as a long-term investor requires a combination of strategies that foster discipline and reduce emotional reactivity: 1. Set Realistic Expectations Establishing clear, realistic financial goals helps investors stay grounded. Understanding that markets fluctuate and that significant returns take time can reduce impatience. Setting specific goals, such as saving for retirement over a 20- or 30-year period, provides a long-term perspective and a framework for measuring progress. 2. Regular Monitoring Without Overreacting While it's important to monitor your portfolio, it’s equally important to avoid overreacting to short-term market moves. Periodic reviews, such as quarterly or annual check-ins, allow investors to assess performance without being influenced by daily volatility. By maintaining a big-picture view, investors can avoid impulsive decisions and stay on track with their goals. 3. Diversification Diversification spreads risk across various asset classes, sectors, and regions, helping to reduce the impact of poor performance in any single investment. A well-diversified portfolio provides a smoother experience, allowing investors to remain patient even during periods of underperformance in certain areas. 4. Continuous Learning and Education Staying informed about market trends and investment strategies helps investors feel more confident in their decisions. The more knowledge an investor has about market behavior, historical trends, and the benefits of long-term investing, the more patient they can remain during challenging times. Education empowers investors to understand that short-term volatility is part of the process. Case Studies and Historical Examples Several well-known examples illustrate the power of patience in long-term investing: Warren Buffett: One of the most famous proponents of long-term investing, Warren Buffett has built his wealth through patience and disciplined investing. His purchase of Coca-Cola shares in 1988 is a prime example. Despite periods of market volatility, Buffett held his shares, allowing the company's growth and compounding returns to generate significant wealth. KO Coca-Cola Monthly Chart Index Funds: Index funds, which track major market indices like the S&P 500, demonstrate the benefits of long-term investing. Over decades, these funds have delivered solid returns, often outperforming actively managed funds. Investors who stay invested in index funds, even during market downturns, benefit from overall market growth. Common Pitfalls and How to Avoid Them While patience is key, there are common mistakes that can derail long-term investing: Panic Selling: Investors who panic during market downturns often sell at a loss, only to see the market recover later. Staying patient and focused on long-term goals helps avoid this costly mistake. Trying to Time the Market: Attempting to predict market highs and lows is a risky strategy that often leads to missed opportunities. Staying invested allows investors to benefit from overall market growth without the risk of mistimed trades. Overtrading: Frequent buying and selling erode returns through higher transaction costs and taxes. A buy-and-hold approach helps preserve capital and reduces unnecessary trading. Conclusion Patience is not just a virtue in long-term investing—it is a necessity. By maintaining discipline, staying focused on long-term goals, and avoiding emotional reactions to market volatility, investors can harness the full potential of compounding returns and achieve financial success. The strategies of setting realistic expectations, diversifying, and staying informed provide the foundation for a patient, long-term approach to wealth building. Through patience, long-term investors can navigate the ups and downs of the market and emerge with a stronger financial future.
SP:SPXEducation
by FOREXN1
4
SPx / Wall Street Gains MomentumEarnings Outlooks Lift Wall Street Pre-Bell; Asia Mixed, Europe Flat Technical Analysis: The price is exhibiting a bullish trend, with a potential target of 5863, as it has already stabilized above 5807. However, a retest of 5807 may occur before resuming the bullish trend. For a bearish outlook to materialize, the price must close below 5781 on the 4-hour chart. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5820 Resistance Levels: 5863, 5891 Support Levels: 5807, 5759, 5732 Trend Outlook: Bearish below 5781 Bullish above 5807
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
S&P500 If it holds this level, it can rise up to 6050.The S&P500 index (SPX) had a strong short-term pull-back yesterday, which is so far contained within the tight levels of a Channel Up pattern. The price is right at the bottom of it and if it holds, we can expect a strong rally continuation for the next 2 weeks, going into the U.S. elections. This sequence is so far similar to the previous Channel Up patterns that emerged after the price broke above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). Once broken, it held right until their tops, which were after a +6.50% rise. This is why, if this holds once more, we expect to see 6050 (+6.50% from the bottom) by the end of the month. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
1
SPX, T10Y2Y, FEDFUNDSRATE, SAHMRULE, US RECESSIONS"I've marked each time the yield curve spiked and when the Fed made pivots in the history of the federal funds rate. I’ve also added U.S. recessions and the Sahm rule to give you a clear indication of what these combined signals are saying." Yield Curve: Every time the yield curve shoots up, especially after an inversion, it often signals upcoming economic turbulence or a recession. Fed Pivots: When the Fed stops raising rates and begins cutting them, it's typically just before or during a recession. These pivots indicate when the Fed is stepping in to stabilize the economy. Recessions: I’ve marked recessions too. They usually follow the signals of the yield curve and the Fed’s shift in policy. Sahm Rule: This is an unemployment indicator that signals when a recession is very likely, even before the full economic impact is visible. Thanks to George Gammon for educating me on most of this..
TVC:SPXShort
by Christian_1605
S&P 500 (SPX) Hits All Targets! Bullish Rally CompletesThe S&P 500 Index has shown strong bullish momentum, with the long trade successfully reaching all profit targets. Key Levels Entry: 5719.98 – The long position was entered as the price broke above this level, confirming bullish sentiment. Stop-Loss (SL): 5703.41 – Positioned below recent support to protect against potential downside risk. Take Profit 1 (TP1): 5740.45 – The first target was hit, confirming the upward momentum. Take Profit 2 (TP2): 5773.57 – The second target was achieved as the bullish trend continued. Take Profit 3 (TP3): 5806.70 – The third target was reached, indicating continued strength in the market. Take Profit 4 (TP4): 5827.17 – The final profit target was reached, marking a highly successful long trade. Trend Analysis The price is well above the Risological Dotted trendline, indicating a strong bullish trend. The steady upward movement suggests that the market sentiment is favorable for further gains, although all targets have been hit, marking the trade's conclusion. The long trade on the S&P 500 Index successfully hit all profit targets, with the final target at 5827.17 signaling a strong rally. The upward momentum was supported by the Risological Dotted trendline, reflecting solid market conditions for bullish trades.
SP:SPXLong
by ProfitsNinja
S&P500 vs Gold in 1970sWe’re hearing a lot of talk about how today’s economic environment is similar to the 1970s, and in many ways, that’s true. Back then, we had runaway inflation and monetary shock, just like in the 2020s. In recent years, we’ve seen two major shocks: 1) First, the inflation spike following the COVID lockdowns and the reckless stimulus packages. 2) Second, the accelerating demand for gold. Central banks started stockpiling gold over a decade ago, but after the U.S. weaponized the dollar in 2022, that trend exploded. It’s not just BRICS nations; countries all over the world are scrambling to increase their gold reserves. No one wants to be left holding the bag when the next currency crisis hits. If we’re on the verge of Gold regaining its rightful place as the anchor of global financial reserves, the repricing of PreciousMetals is going to be enormous. In fact, it will completely overshadow the returns of stock indices, just like it did in the 1970s. After the Nixon shock, gold skyrocketed, and while the S&P 500 rose in nominal terms, it was obliterated when measured against gold. Maybe this time the magnitude of this move will be smaller, who knows? What matters is that stock market returns alone are not the ultimate measure of success. What truly counts are the returns relative to real-world-assets.
SP:SPX
by dabaint
S&P 500 at record highs: Maximize your exposureThe S&P 500 has reached record highs, boosted by solid results from the U.S. financial sector. Companies such as JPMorgan and Wells Fargo posted gains of 4% to 5%, strengthening the market and positioning U.S. banking at one of its highest points in history. As the earnings season progresses, investors are looking to maximize their portfolio returns in an environment of growth in the US market, despite global uncertainties. United States: Financials lead momentum In the United States, third-quarter earnings are off to a strong start, with the banking sector in full growth mode and the S&P 500 at record levels. This strength contrasts with the challenges facing other regions, with earnings growth for this quarter expected to be 5.1%. The focus is now on the expectations being managed by large companies, with the developing conflict in the Middle East and the US presidential election as potential risk factors. Europe: Fiscal challenges and modest growth Meanwhile, European markets continue to stagnate. The Ibex 35, CAC 40 and DAX reflect mixed performance, with investors awaiting macroeconomic data. Although 4.6% growth in third-quarter earnings is expected, Europe is still grappling with structural problems, especially in Germany and France, which call into question the long-term viability of the euro project. Asia and the Middle East: Uncertainties and stimuli In Asia, the focus is on stimulus policies in China, where the government has been trying to revitalize its economy. However, the lack of clarity about the real extent of these efforts continues to raise doubts among investors. In the Middle East, evolving conflicts also introduce an element of uncertainty that could affect global markets in the near future. On the technical side S&P500 (Ticker AT:USA500) has been advancing since last week in an almost unstoppable bullish move that has seen it reach new highs. If we look at the most frequently traded area, the index has been hovering above it since September 19, and moving through the upper zone of the long-term channel. It would not be difficult to see it touching 6000 points in the coming weeks. On the other hand, we have the control point (POC) at 5,473 points and the overbought RSI at 67.72% which indicates that there is still room for an extension to that price. If we look at the bollinger bands we can see how on Friday the band started to widen which could reinforce this thought of a continuation of the bullish move. In summary, while the S&P 500 makes record highs, Europe faces growth challenges, and Asia and the Middle East add elements of uncertainty to a complex global financial landscape. Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ULong
by ActivTrades
SPX will top around ~4500I think, SPX will top around 6500, previous history show, when it reached the RED LINE, it drops significantly. The RED LINE AVG is around $6500 The GREEN LINE AVG which maybe bottom is around $2600 The bottom chart is supporting the scenario, the 3 Quarter Average. The RED Horizontal line is the 1929 TOP. Simulating the candle if it will close to $4500, it can still go further. The Price Chart Bullish scenario is when a candle close above the RED LINE, the price will go ballistic if this happened. You will see massive candles above the red line.
SP:SPX
by Theordertaker
S&P500 Major bullish break out took placeThe S&P500 index broke above the Rising Resistance that was the top trendline of the Rising Wedge. This transitions the price action from that pattern to the Channel Up, which has significant upside potential at the moment. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the current market price. Targets: 1. 6080 (+7.25% rise, same as the last rally). Tips: 1. The RSI (4h) is overbought so expect the momentum to turn sideways for some days but that doesn't mean that the uptrend will stop. Similar thing happened during the previous bullish wave. Please like, follow and comment!!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingBrokersView
Short setup on SPXThe SPX has experienced a significant bull run, reaching just below $5700, but is now showing clear signs of weakness, suggesting a potential short setup. Since mid-July, the SPX has been moving sideways and is now nearly flat at its all-time high. However, the RSI Exhaustion at the bottom of the chart has significantly declined and hasn't recovered much, establishing a downtrend. This divergence between the price and the RSI Exhaustion is the first major signal of a possible short configuration. Three additional signs support this setup: The RSI Exhaustion shows bullish exhaustion (indicated in green), signaling that further price increases are unlikely. The price has formed a top at its all-time high, as identified by the Bottoms Tops Signal indicator. A new major resistance level has recently formed, as indicated by the Levels and Zones indicator. While this level could potentially turn into support if the price breaks above it, for now, it remains a resistance, exerting downward pressure on the price. Is the bull run over? Only time will tell, but for now, it's crucial to remain patient and always seek confirmation from the indicators.
TVC:SPXShort
by a.b
Weekly GEX of SPX | Option Chain Analysis for Option TradersI’d like to share my thoughts below after analyzing the SPX option chain. In this analysis, I focus exclusively on the weekly time range, examining the SPX option chain and the changes in top-tier options metrics. 🔶 Breakout and Bullish Outlook Last Friday's price action saw the SPX break through the 5800 call gamma wall, generating strong bullish momentum . This breakout opens the door for further upward movement throughout the week, especially if buying pressure persists. Breaking through a call gamma wall often leads to a rapid price increase, as these levels act as resistance, but once broken, they support further upward moves. However, caution is advised, as additional call gamma levels (around 5850 and 5875) could act as resistance, where the price may stall. These levels can reverse roles and, if the price falters, could act as significant resistance, potentially leading to a pullback toward the 5800 level. 🔴 Put Skew and IVx Changes The put pricing skew on the Options Oscillator shows a declining trend, meaning that while put options are still more expensive than calls at equivalent strikes, this trend is softening when looking at the November expiration. This indicates a weakening of put options relative to calls, which could be another bullish signal as demand for puts may be declining. The five-day IVx average declining , indicating a decrease in market volatility = VIX is melting down. 🟨 Backwardation and Diagonal/Calendar Strategy Opportunities It's also worth noting the 10.5% backwardation based on the IV skew for the expirations between 10/18 and 10/21 (4/7DTE). This backwardation (downward sloping volatility curve) could benefit calendar and diagonal spread strategies, as options with different expirations have varying volatility conditions. 🔶 GEX Wall Levels: Where Is Support and Resistance? 🔹Gamma Exposure (GEX) levels continue to play a crucial role in the market’s movements: 🔹On the upside, the largest call gamma wall for the next 7 days is at 5850, while the 5875 level may also act as significant resistance. The 5875 is a more likely a realistic bullish target, supported by the Options Overlay’s blue OTM delta 16 probability curve. 🔹On the downside, the 5750 put support level currently offers strong support, with sellers forming a barrier here. The 5800 level is also interesting because it was the largest call gamma level last week, meaning there could be significant volatility as bulls and bears battle around this point. (NOTE: GEX levels is not part of the TanukiTrade Options Overlay indicator yet. The automatic GEX levels will be available by the end of October.) 🟨 How Delta 16 Curves Define My Rational Price Range in Options Trading The blue OTM Delta 16 curves from the Options Overlay define the rational probability range for me based on a lognormal distribution. This is important because there’s a 68% chance the price will stay within this range by expiration. These values are also visible in the Overlay Expiry table. This represents the 68% probability range defined by OTM 16 delta PUTs and OTM 16 delta CALLs, showing a clear directional expected move value. It provides an insightful view of the expected price movement’s directional range, often used by delta-neutral strangle traders like those at TastyTrade. ⅀ SPX Summary The SPX options chain is showing a bullish direction with the breakout above 5800, but it will be key to watch the gamma levels where the market might stall this week. The rising IV and declining put skew trend could provide further signals that the bull market might continue, but the possibility of resistance or a pullback remains. For those considering diagonal strategies, the backwardation may offer interesting opportunities to capitalize on. (NOTE: GEX levels is not part of the TanukiTrade Options Overlay indicator yet. The automatic GEX levels will be available soon, by the end of October!)
SP:SPXLong
by TanukiTrade