Update on Gold and SPX - 12pmGold looks like an objective short trade again, although testing 3100 first is expected. SPX looks like it's consolidating before the move down I still expect.
US500 trade ideas
S&P500: Rebound or Correction before another fallFRED:SP500 moving below 200 Days EMA on Daily Chart and taking a support on same EMA on Weekly Chart. Due to current situation in the market, high volatility due to Tariffs and announcements, Traders should be cautious as current rebound might be a correction before another fall with support at 4587
S&P 500 still testing 5,000Some participants in stock markets had hoped for negotiations to make some progress in the first week of April and at least some countries to be exempted quickly from the latest round of tariffs. However, now it’s a full-scale trade war: China in particular, under 104% tariffs, is very unlikely to back down. The main uncertainty for markets now is less how major countries such as China will continue to react and more whether the American government has discipline of policy to stick to what was announced.
So far there hasn’t been a full-day close below 5,000, which suggests that this area is still a support and it’d be possible to see another attempt at a bounce soon. However, it’s important to consider the bigger picture: the current retracement has barely touched the highs from late 2021 and early 2022 plus the losses in the last two months haven’t so far been bigger than in early 2022, just faster.
A very obvious bullish interpretation of the chart would be inverted head and shoulders, suggesting a return to 6,000 around this time next month. Perhaps obviously, that’s very questionable given how quickly the trade situation can change. Traders also need to monitor the upcoming earnings season in the USA, particularly banks’ reports on Friday 11 April, and sentiment on the Fed’s upcoming meetings.
This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
Retests, Rallies, and Bear Swings LoadingYou know what’s better than nailing a trade?
Not having to flip, flop, hedge, unhedge, reverse, scalp, and do the full Hokey Cokey just to survive.
Today was one of those days – the kind where the plan just works.
Futures? Wild.
Down 143, up 188, then back to flat - all before most traders finished their first sip of coffee.
But while price whipsaws, I’m not chasing shadows.
I’ve got my line out.
My bear swing is on.
And I’m just waiting for the exit alert to ding.
---
Let’s break down what happened:
Yesterday’s tariff chaos acted like a Mr. Miyagi market prank.
“Tariff on.”
“Wait, just kidding.”
“Tariff off.”
The move up?
Landed exactly at Monday's news spike and the days 5250 gamma flip level – which we had marked and mapped.
Perfect resistance.
Retest. Rejection.
Bear pulse bars triggered.
And now the swing is on.
Trade location: Dialled in.
Directional bias: still bearish under 5400.
Execution: GEX levels + pulse bar structure.
Retests, Not Reversals
Tuesdays action also gave us something sneaky:
An intraday retest of the recent lows.
Now, if you’ve been around since the 2020 V-turn era, you’ve seen this before.
Panic sell.
Sharp bounce.
Retest the low to check for real conviction.
Then make the real move.
This retest could be the prelude to a bull thesis - but not yet.
Structure comes first. Bias second.
Until we break clean above 5400, I stay bear-biased.
---
Expert Insights: Don’t Trade Like You’re in a Dance-Off
The Mistake:
Overtrading volatility. Flipping bias every 15 minutes. Trading like it’s a talent show.
The Fix:
Pick your structure. Define your invalidation.
Enter once, scale in if needed, and let it play out.
No need to “turn around and shake it all about.”
Leave the Hokey Cokey for weddings.
---
Fun Fact
During the 2015–2020 bull run, the average false breakout-to-retest cycle happened within 3 sessions after a panic reversal.
Translation?
Markets often retest panic lows before deciding the next big move.
This isn’t new. It’s just noisy. And totally tradable.
...Another fun fact
Did you know?
The 104% tariff imposed by the U.S. on Chinese imports is among the highest in modern history, reminiscent of protectionist measures not seen since the early 20th century.
SPX500 Short - Due to tariffs impactMarket overview and macro outlook
1. Tariffs, tariffs, tariffs
- The 104% tariffs response to China's response and possible 25% pharmaceutical tariffs are weighing down the markets
- Markets are expected to keep going down until some news of relief is announced
2. Upcoming news
- FOMC meeting on Wed - probably to the downside as it should be comments on keeping rates high to combat the tariffs uncertainty
- US CPI/Unemployment on Thu - TBD
-- If high CPI - good for equities as it raises probability of interest rates cut
-- If high unemployment - good for equities as it raises probability of interest rates cut
- US Core PPI on Fri - TBD
-- If high PPI - good for equities as it raises probability of interest rates cut
Thus, I have a bearish view of the market and look to take Short positions here.
Technical View
Continuing the downtrend from yesterday
Limit short position at 4910, which is right above a major psychological level. Going for a 1:1 trade.
- SL: 4976 (Above the highs of a pullback in the downtrend)
- TP: 4842 (Slightly above the lows of the previous trading zone)
Execution
1. Limit order
- SL: 4976 (Above the highs of a pullback in the downtrend)
- TP: 4842 (Slightly above the lows of the previous trading zone)
2. Key note:
- To watch out for news on tariffs action by Trump, EU and China. Focus on China, then EU then US as per the timezones for today.
3. TF:
- Will close by Friday if price does not retrace back to entry level by then.
Results of ideas thus far:
Number of trades: 3
WR: 33%
Profit: 1.9R
Notes: This is currently for personal practice to write out trade ideas. Feedback is welcome, and please don't mind if none of this makes sense.
S&P 500 clearly long term bullishFor all of those saying we are in a bear market, I could be wrong but at least long term, I don't agree. We are in a post corona "normal" correction to the 50 EMA / 50% FIB retracement / RSI low / Previous monthly resistance that will most like will turn to support. We have no new low's. All signs of a correction in an uptrend. Let's see how it pans out.
The Easy trade? SPY had a relentless sell off after open, which seems TOO easy for shorts. I explain why I think this may be a C wave with another move up starting tomorrow. Possibilities only.
S&P update I did mention earlier on tht this is one pair I'm able to catch moves bttr in than any other pairs , well it's a wrap for me see y'all tomorrow
Could the price bounce from here?S&P500 is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 4,963.98
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 4,800.67
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 5,158.53
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
S&P 500 for 100 yearsThis is probably really dumb, but I thought it looked cool, appreciate any feedback
#longterm
#trend
S&PThe SPX touched a long-standing overhead, and came down ever-so-slightly to retrace the most recent peak. This is all totally normal. There is nothing here to worry about. In fact, the more touches of this overhead, the more likely it is that we break above it. You can see this has happened many times before in the S&P, where it breaks above an overhead, only to land on top of it, and then launch for a new even steeper part of the curve. The macro parabola that the markets are in.
S&P 500: Bottoming Out or Just a Bounce?Has the market bottomed?
The S&P 500 has bounced 10% from the critical 4800 level, signaling strong buyer interest and disrupting the bearish trend that’s been in place since February 2025. Selling pressure appears to have exhausted as the bearish pattern reached its target near 5000.
This bounce is a positive sign, suggesting downward momentum may be fading. However, for a stronger confirmation, we need to see the index hold above the 4800–5000 zone. If it fails to stabilize here, the 4500 level could act as the next buffer.
Watch for a Bull trapWith the market up at open you would expect buyers to come in. It could very well be a trap. Both Vix and SPX rsi is telling me a test of the low - or lower is possible in the next few days.
$SPX Review of Black Monday
Alright - Yesterday - We stayed completely with in the implied move - you can see that both sides got tested which gave us some wild swings. Spreads on both ends paid. 10% intraday moves
We hit the bottom of the implied move, the top of the implied move and we saw resistance at the 35EMA.
SPX bounce is dueSPX RSI hasn't been so oversold since the Corona crash, plus bouncing from the 2022 ATH
Relief is due
SPX 500 Technical Analysis This is not financial advice and I never recommend trying to pick bottoms and tops of markets. Trade safely and always wait for confirmation, with sound risk management.
[H] SPX 4.8.2025This deserves a closer look.... The orange thug is going to destroy the biggest economy inevitably. Sadly, stock charts are just the beginning, and things will escalate fast. Brace for a world order change.
S&P500 Searching for a BottomExecutive Summary
The S&P 500’s Elliott Wave structure suggests the current downtrend is incomplete, with a high-probability target near the 4,300 level based on Fibonacci retracement levels. Global stock markets remain under pressure amid ongoing tariff uncertainty, and Elliott Wave patterns across various indices continue to point to more downside.
Current Elliott Wave Analysis
Today’s upward volatility is likely a small-degree wave four, with another leg down expected to retest today’s lows in the coming sessions.
There is an impulse wave that began in October 2022 and topped in 2025. We are now seeing the after effects of that completed rally. A standard 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of that move places a high-probability support zone around 4,300—a logical target for a ‘normal’ correction of the 2022–2025 rally.
Currently, price has paused near the January 2022 high at 4,662, and also sits near the 38.2% retracement level of the 2022 rally, which lies around 4,950. While a move to new highs cannot be fully ruled out, the probability of such a rally is currently low. Given the brief nature of the current decline in both price and duration, a more meaningful correction is still likely.
Bottom Line
The S&P 500 appears to be in wave ((iii)) or ((c)) of a downward move, with the structure still incomplete. A decline toward 4,300 remains the higher-probability scenario in the near term.
We will reconsider the medium-term outlook if the index rallies above 5,488, which would overlap the March 31 low and suggest a possible low is in place.
$SPX Flirting With a Bear Market alongside $QQQ NASDAQ fell another 4% touching down 26%
S&P 500 walking a tight rope falling 21% to play with the idea of a Bear Market, but has rebounded a bit.
NASDAQ:QQQ did have a stronger response from buyers than SP:SPX
Nonetheless, we would need several WEEKLY closes sub 20% losses to enter a textbook Bear Market.
The S&P 500 Has Officially Entered a Bear MarketThe technical definition is simple:
✅ A decline of 20% or more from recent all-time highs.
That’s exactly where we are.
🔻 The S&P 500 has been free-falling and just hit that 20% mark.
🔴 The index is on pace to close the day deep in red — confirming what many feared:
We are in a bear market.
👀 What does this mean?
Expect continued volatility, emotional markets, and high sensitivity to macroeconomic news.
Historically, bear markets can last from a few months to over a year, depending on policy response and investor sentiment.
While painful, bear markets often plant the seeds of the next bull run 🌱 — but that doesn’t mean we’re there yet.
🧠 Time to zoom out, stay informed, and trade with caution. Capital preservation becomes just as important as returns.
What’s your strategy during bear markets? Averaging down? Hedging? Sitting in cash?
#SP500 #BearMarket #StockMarketCrash #TradingStrategy #MarketUpdate #InvestSmart
Tweet and idea (you can use it for prediction)Tweet and idea (you can use it for prediction)
💡 This trading idea is based on analyzing market reactions to news and tweets from influential figures — especially in the context of cryptocurrencies and stocks prone to speculative spikes.
📊 Core Strategy:
The model tracks sudden price movements triggered by public statements (e.g., tweets from Elon Musk, breaking news, etc.). After the initial reaction, a retracement or continuation pattern often forms, which can be used to enter a trade.
🧠 How to use it:
1. Monitor the news flow or social media activity related to the asset.
2. Identify the initial impulse on the chart (high volume, sharp movement).
3. Wait for consolidation or a minor pullback.
4. Enter on breakout or bounce, using a tight stop-loss.
📌 Best suited for high-volatility assets with frequent hype triggers (e.g., DOGE, TSLA, BTC).
