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SPX, T10Y2Y, FEDFUNDSRATE, SAHMRULE, US RECESSIONS"I've marked each time the yield curve spiked and when the Fed made pivots in the history of the federal funds rate. I’ve also added U.S. recessions and the Sahm rule to give you a clear indication of what these combined signals are saying." Yield Curve: Every time the yield curve shoots up, especially after an inversion, it often signals upcoming economic turbulence or a recession. Fed Pivots: When the Fed stops raising rates and begins cutting them, it's typically just before or during a recession. These pivots indicate when the Fed is stepping in to stabilize the economy. Recessions: I’ve marked recessions too. They usually follow the signals of the yield curve and the Fed’s shift in policy. Sahm Rule: This is an unemployment indicator that signals when a recession is very likely, even before the full economic impact is visible. Thanks to George Gammon for educating me on most of this..
TVC:SPXShort
by Christian_1605
S&P 500 (SPX) Hits All Targets! Bullish Rally CompletesThe S&P 500 Index has shown strong bullish momentum, with the long trade successfully reaching all profit targets. Key Levels Entry: 5719.98 – The long position was entered as the price broke above this level, confirming bullish sentiment. Stop-Loss (SL): 5703.41 – Positioned below recent support to protect against potential downside risk. Take Profit 1 (TP1): 5740.45 – The first target was hit, confirming the upward momentum. Take Profit 2 (TP2): 5773.57 – The second target was achieved as the bullish trend continued. Take Profit 3 (TP3): 5806.70 – The third target was reached, indicating continued strength in the market. Take Profit 4 (TP4): 5827.17 – The final profit target was reached, marking a highly successful long trade. Trend Analysis The price is well above the Risological Dotted trendline, indicating a strong bullish trend. The steady upward movement suggests that the market sentiment is favorable for further gains, although all targets have been hit, marking the trade's conclusion. The long trade on the S&P 500 Index successfully hit all profit targets, with the final target at 5827.17 signaling a strong rally. The upward momentum was supported by the Risological Dotted trendline, reflecting solid market conditions for bullish trades.
SP:SPXLong
by ProfitsNinja
S&P500 vs Gold in 1970sWe’re hearing a lot of talk about how today’s economic environment is similar to the 1970s, and in many ways, that’s true. Back then, we had runaway inflation and monetary shock, just like in the 2020s. In recent years, we’ve seen two major shocks: 1) First, the inflation spike following the COVID lockdowns and the reckless stimulus packages. 2) Second, the accelerating demand for gold. Central banks started stockpiling gold over a decade ago, but after the U.S. weaponized the dollar in 2022, that trend exploded. It’s not just BRICS nations; countries all over the world are scrambling to increase their gold reserves. No one wants to be left holding the bag when the next currency crisis hits. If we’re on the verge of Gold regaining its rightful place as the anchor of global financial reserves, the repricing of PreciousMetals is going to be enormous. In fact, it will completely overshadow the returns of stock indices, just like it did in the 1970s. After the Nixon shock, gold skyrocketed, and while the S&P 500 rose in nominal terms, it was obliterated when measured against gold. Maybe this time the magnitude of this move will be smaller, who knows? What matters is that stock market returns alone are not the ultimate measure of success. What truly counts are the returns relative to real-world-assets.
SP:SPX
by dabaint
S&P 500 at record highs: Maximize your exposureThe S&P 500 has reached record highs, boosted by solid results from the U.S. financial sector. Companies such as JPMorgan and Wells Fargo posted gains of 4% to 5%, strengthening the market and positioning U.S. banking at one of its highest points in history. As the earnings season progresses, investors are looking to maximize their portfolio returns in an environment of growth in the US market, despite global uncertainties. United States: Financials lead momentum In the United States, third-quarter earnings are off to a strong start, with the banking sector in full growth mode and the S&P 500 at record levels. This strength contrasts with the challenges facing other regions, with earnings growth for this quarter expected to be 5.1%. The focus is now on the expectations being managed by large companies, with the developing conflict in the Middle East and the US presidential election as potential risk factors. Europe: Fiscal challenges and modest growth Meanwhile, European markets continue to stagnate. The Ibex 35, CAC 40 and DAX reflect mixed performance, with investors awaiting macroeconomic data. Although 4.6% growth in third-quarter earnings is expected, Europe is still grappling with structural problems, especially in Germany and France, which call into question the long-term viability of the euro project. Asia and the Middle East: Uncertainties and stimuli In Asia, the focus is on stimulus policies in China, where the government has been trying to revitalize its economy. However, the lack of clarity about the real extent of these efforts continues to raise doubts among investors. In the Middle East, evolving conflicts also introduce an element of uncertainty that could affect global markets in the near future. On the technical side S&P500 (Ticker AT:USA500) has been advancing since last week in an almost unstoppable bullish move that has seen it reach new highs. If we look at the most frequently traded area, the index has been hovering above it since September 19, and moving through the upper zone of the long-term channel. It would not be difficult to see it touching 6000 points in the coming weeks. On the other hand, we have the control point (POC) at 5,473 points and the overbought RSI at 67.72% which indicates that there is still room for an extension to that price. If we look at the bollinger bands we can see how on Friday the band started to widen which could reinforce this thought of a continuation of the bullish move. In summary, while the S&P 500 makes record highs, Europe faces growth challenges, and Asia and the Middle East add elements of uncertainty to a complex global financial landscape. Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ULong
by ActivTrades
SPX will top around ~4500I think, SPX will top around 6500, previous history show, when it reached the RED LINE, it drops significantly. The RED LINE AVG is around $6500 The GREEN LINE AVG which maybe bottom is around $2600 The bottom chart is supporting the scenario, the 3 Quarter Average. The RED Horizontal line is the 1929 TOP. Simulating the candle if it will close to $4500, it can still go further. The Price Chart Bullish scenario is when a candle close above the RED LINE, the price will go ballistic if this happened. You will see massive candles above the red line.
SP:SPX
by Theordertaker
S&P500 Major bullish break out took placeThe S&P500 index broke above the Rising Resistance that was the top trendline of the Rising Wedge. This transitions the price action from that pattern to the Channel Up, which has significant upside potential at the moment. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the current market price. Targets: 1. 6080 (+7.25% rise, same as the last rally). Tips: 1. The RSI (4h) is overbought so expect the momentum to turn sideways for some days but that doesn't mean that the uptrend will stop. Similar thing happened during the previous bullish wave. Please like, follow and comment!!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingBrokersView
Short setup on SPXThe SPX has experienced a significant bull run, reaching just below $5700, but is now showing clear signs of weakness, suggesting a potential short setup. Since mid-July, the SPX has been moving sideways and is now nearly flat at its all-time high. However, the RSI Exhaustion at the bottom of the chart has significantly declined and hasn't recovered much, establishing a downtrend. This divergence between the price and the RSI Exhaustion is the first major signal of a possible short configuration. Three additional signs support this setup: The RSI Exhaustion shows bullish exhaustion (indicated in green), signaling that further price increases are unlikely. The price has formed a top at its all-time high, as identified by the Bottoms Tops Signal indicator. A new major resistance level has recently formed, as indicated by the Levels and Zones indicator. While this level could potentially turn into support if the price breaks above it, for now, it remains a resistance, exerting downward pressure on the price. Is the bull run over? Only time will tell, but for now, it's crucial to remain patient and always seek confirmation from the indicators.
TVC:SPXShort
by a.b
Weekly GEX of SPX | Option Chain Analysis for Option TradersI’d like to share my thoughts below after analyzing the SPX option chain. In this analysis, I focus exclusively on the weekly time range, examining the SPX option chain and the changes in top-tier options metrics. 🔶 Breakout and Bullish Outlook Last Friday's price action saw the SPX break through the 5800 call gamma wall, generating strong bullish momentum . This breakout opens the door for further upward movement throughout the week, especially if buying pressure persists. Breaking through a call gamma wall often leads to a rapid price increase, as these levels act as resistance, but once broken, they support further upward moves. However, caution is advised, as additional call gamma levels (around 5850 and 5875) could act as resistance, where the price may stall. These levels can reverse roles and, if the price falters, could act as significant resistance, potentially leading to a pullback toward the 5800 level. 🔴 Put Skew and IVx Changes The put pricing skew on the Options Oscillator shows a declining trend, meaning that while put options are still more expensive than calls at equivalent strikes, this trend is softening when looking at the November expiration. This indicates a weakening of put options relative to calls, which could be another bullish signal as demand for puts may be declining. The five-day IVx average declining , indicating a decrease in market volatility = VIX is melting down. 🟨 Backwardation and Diagonal/Calendar Strategy Opportunities It's also worth noting the 10.5% backwardation based on the IV skew for the expirations between 10/18 and 10/21 (4/7DTE). This backwardation (downward sloping volatility curve) could benefit calendar and diagonal spread strategies, as options with different expirations have varying volatility conditions. 🔶 GEX Wall Levels: Where Is Support and Resistance? 🔹Gamma Exposure (GEX) levels continue to play a crucial role in the market’s movements: 🔹On the upside, the largest call gamma wall for the next 7 days is at 5850, while the 5875 level may also act as significant resistance. The 5875 is a more likely a realistic bullish target, supported by the Options Overlay’s blue OTM delta 16 probability curve. 🔹On the downside, the 5750 put support level currently offers strong support, with sellers forming a barrier here. The 5800 level is also interesting because it was the largest call gamma level last week, meaning there could be significant volatility as bulls and bears battle around this point. (NOTE: GEX levels is not part of the TanukiTrade Options Overlay indicator yet. The automatic GEX levels will be available by the end of October.) 🟨 How Delta 16 Curves Define My Rational Price Range in Options Trading The blue OTM Delta 16 curves from the Options Overlay define the rational probability range for me based on a lognormal distribution. This is important because there’s a 68% chance the price will stay within this range by expiration. These values are also visible in the Overlay Expiry table. This represents the 68% probability range defined by OTM 16 delta PUTs and OTM 16 delta CALLs, showing a clear directional expected move value. It provides an insightful view of the expected price movement’s directional range, often used by delta-neutral strangle traders like those at TastyTrade. ⅀ SPX Summary The SPX options chain is showing a bullish direction with the breakout above 5800, but it will be key to watch the gamma levels where the market might stall this week. The rising IV and declining put skew trend could provide further signals that the bull market might continue, but the possibility of resistance or a pullback remains. For those considering diagonal strategies, the backwardation may offer interesting opportunities to capitalize on. (NOTE: GEX levels is not part of the TanukiTrade Options Overlay indicator yet. The automatic GEX levels will be available soon, by the end of October!)
SP:SPXLong
by TanukiTrade
US500 Index Price Analysis - Bullish OutlookUS500 Index Price Analysis - Bullish Outlook US500 broke through the top of the large structure on 19-September-24 by confirming that the bullis wants to push the index into new highs. After 20 days in an accumulation process, the price broke out of the pattern yesterday indicating further growth. The reason of the bullish move was related to the FOMC minutes yesterday and the US CPI data can push it up further today as shown on the chart. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by KlejdiCuni
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