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SPX: S&P 500 Closes Below the 200-Day Moving AverageThe S&P 500 (SPX) has officially closed below its 200-day moving average, a significant technical event that traders and institutions closely monitor. This marks the first time since late 2023 that the index has broken this key support level, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment. 🔸 Why This Matters For those who don't know, the 200-day SMA is widely viewed as a long-term trend indicator. A decisive close below it often triggers increased selling pressure as institutions adjust risk exposure and algorithms shift to a more defensive stance. 🔸 Bearish Momentum Building Recent price action has been decisively bearish, with heavy selling over the last few sessions. If bulls fail to regain control, the market could be setting up for further downside, with key support levels now in focus. 🔸 Key Levels to Watch • 200-day SMA: Now a potential resistance level • Support zones: Recent lows and major Fibonacci retracement levels • Volatility indicators: VIX spike and sector rotation into defensive plays (both are currently in progress) Traders will be watching closely—will buyers step in and defend key levels, or are we looking at the start of a larger correction? ⚡ What’s your take? Is this just a temporary shakeout, or are we heading lower? Drop your thoughts below!
SP:SPX
by BluntForceOptions
China Money FlowIn the context of technical analysis, Fibonacci retracement and extension levels serve as pivotal tools for identifying potential support and resistance zones within a given price trajectory. By applying the Fibonacci sequence to key swing highs and lows, traders can derive a series of horizontal levels that may act as psychological barriers or areas of confluence for price action. These levels, often expressed as ratios such as 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6%, are believed to reflect natural harmonic patterns inherent in market behavior. When analyzing a chart, the initial step involves identifying a significant price movement, either upward or downward, which serves as the basis for plotting the Fibonacci grid. The retracement levels are then superimposed onto the chart, providing a framework for assessing potential pullback areas where price may consolidate or reverse. Concurrently, Fibonacci extension levels can be employed to project potential price targets beyond the initial swing, offering insights into where the trend might resume or exhaust. The interplay between Fibonacci levels and other technical indicators, such as moving averages, volume profiles, or oscillators, can further enhance the robustness of the analysis. For instance, a confluence between a Fibonacci retracement level and a key moving average may strengthen the case for a potential reversal or continuation. Similarly, divergence signals from momentum indicators near Fibonacci levels can provide additional confirmation or cautionary signals. It is important to note that Fibonacci levels are not infallible and should be interpreted within the broader context of market conditions, including trend direction, volatility, and macroeconomic factors. Traders often employ a discretionary approach, combining Fibonacci analysis with price action patterns, candlestick formations, and other qualitative factors to refine their decision-making process. Furthermore, the subjective nature of selecting swing points for Fibonacci calculations underscores the need for consistency and adaptability in application. In summary, Fibonacci retracement and extension levels offer a structured yet flexible framework for chart trading, enabling traders to identify potential areas of interest and manage risk-reward dynamics. While their efficacy is contingent upon proper application and contextual interpretation, their widespread adoption across various asset classes and timeframes attests to their enduring relevance in technical analysis. Let's check what happens here
SP:SPXShort
by bitcoin
SPX ready for the correctionhi traders, This is probably not what most traders want to see but we must be realistic. The monthly close is upon us and it's not gonna be a bullish close. A lot of selling pressure and it may be just the beginning. A 13 % correction on SPX is more than likely in my opinion. If the price loses the upsloping support, we will see the mark-down pretty soon. Stoch RSI suggests that the bears are taking control. My target for SPX is between 5200 and 5000. Get ready to buy cheap stocks and cheap crypto!
SP:SPXShort
by vf_investment
My Bullishness May Prove to be Terribly Wrong I've been a persistent bear into all the rallies under 5700 but 5700 I did think was a good level for a bounce. I still expected lower off this but from as early as November I'd forecast a bounce here if we topped somewhere around 6100. This was betting on a 1.27 hold or at least a dead cat. That idea might have failed today. Markets closed today at support. I don't like bear posting at lows in general and hate doing it on support ... but if this support breaks, the drop can double. We could see a capitulation of 500 points in SPX. It could be something we see soon.
SP:SPXShort
by holeyprofit
2
Wave 5 Vibes in SPX. Very close to puking my bullish positions and reverting back to being a bear (although I hate to short at these levels, I'd probably wait for a break and rally) but this is possibly a wave 5 spike out. If it is, then we'll see a big rally to over 6000. Big attempts at this on now, largely weighted with deep OTM calls so they're cheap to lose. Wave 5 would be about over now if this is correct. Otherwise, I think we'll end up trading 5000. Would just be a matter of what path. I'd not short immediately, but I would bail on longs quickly.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by holeyprofit
S&P 500 Elliott Wave Update – Is Wave IV Nearing Completion?📊 S&P 500 – Is Wave IV Nearing Completion? According to Elliott Wave Theory, the S&P 500 is currently in an impulsive structure, and it seems to be completing Wave (IV) in a larger degree. Typically, Wave IV retraces near the Wave IV of Wave III, which aligns with the corrective zone in this analysis. 🔹 Two Possible Scenarios: 1️⃣ Conservative Approach: If price remains within the 23.6%–50% Fibonacci retracement zone, we can expect Wave IV to complete soon, leading to the start of Wave V in the impulsive structure. 2️⃣ Aggressive Scenario: If the price breaks above 6147.43, this wave count might no longer be valid, and an alternative structure (such as an ending diagonal) could be forming instead. 📌 Key Level to Watch: The invalidation level for this scenario is 5122.40. As long as price stays above this zone, there is a strong possibility of an extended Wave V, with Wave 1 already completed and Wave 2 correcting within the 50%–61.8% Fibonacci retracement range before a potential bullish continuation. ⚠️ Alternative Possibility – Complex Correction? While this count follows Elliott Wave principles, we should also consider the possibility of a complex correction (WXY or a triangle formation) before confirming a bullish move. 📊 Final Thought: With the equality of Waves I & III respected, the impulsive structure remains valid unless price enters Wave I territory. Otherwise, we might be looking at a different formation. 💡 What’s your view? Do you agree with this analysis, or do you see an alternative setup? Drop your thoughts below! 👇📈
SP:SPXShort
by Mehdi_Abbasi_EWP
4
SPX500 Long Trade Setup Analysis (1D Timeframe - Blackbull)SPX500 is at a crucial inflection point. Will the support hold, or are we breaking down? Previous ideas setup identified on 11th January has now come into fruition: 📈 Current Setup: 📈 The SPX500 is approaching major resistance at 6,663.37 - the 0.618 Fibonacci Extension of the most recent high timeframe move dating back to July 2024 - present. The previous low in July 2024 also happens to be the previous touch of this same ascending channel. previous touch of this ascending channel) Check out our previously published long term outlook on the SPX (view it out at the bottom of this publication). 🔹 Right now, we can see price is testing the channels lower supporting trend line, which lines up nicely with previous structure support, and a 0.38% Fibonacci Retracement of the August 2024-present move. Having multiple confluence of supporting indications, as well as aligning with our longer time perspective on higher timeframe direction, it is likely we will see a bounce up from here. 📉 A failure to bounce here however could either be a fake out, or the top of the SPX. We do not believe this is the top, and we will not short should price break down further. We will sit back and monitor looking for a new entry on the lower Fibonacci levels highlighted in our charts, with tight stops to minimise risk. 📍 Key Resistance Levels (Potential Rejection Zones): 🎯 6,663.37 – 0.618 Fib extension + channel resistance + previous higher time frame idea (found at the bottom of this publication) 🎯 6,832.13 – 0.764 Fib extension, final inversion trigger for bears 🎯 7,000 – Psychological round-number top, multi-year equilibrium ceiling 📍 Key Support Levels: ❗ 5,755.70 – 0.382 Fib retracement, 4x-tested structural support 🔻 5,624.61 – Channel midpoint convergence 📉 5,362.03 – 0.764 Fib retracement, final long opportunity supporting the idea of a 6650 All Time High, below this level leads to invalidation and bearish sentiment. 🚀 Bullish Scenario (Anticipated Play Before Long Term Reversal): 🟢 Entry : Touch of channel support, previous structure support, 0.38 Fib 5,755.13 (validated sustained close). 🎯 Take Profit 1 : 6,150 (Previous high). 🎯 Take Profit 2 : 6,429 (-0.272 Fib extension). 🎯 Take Profit 3 : 6,575 (See previous idea at the bottom of this publiation). 🔴 Stop Loss : Below 5,629 (Bull invalidation). ✅ Justification: 🔹The SPX has seen a dip recently, mostly as a result of geopolitical tension (see below), however we believe based on our technical analysis both here, and our long term high time frame analysis that we will see the SPX push up one final time over the coming months before the bears take control. 🔹 Seasonal strength in early March and potential Fed dovishness could fuel momentum. 📉 Bearish Scenario (Primary expectation once 6650 is reached): ❌ Invalidation Level : Sustained close above 7,000 (Multi-decade equilibrium barrier). 🔻 Downside Short-Term Targets: 5,755.70 – 0.382 Fib + channel support. 5,624.61 – Mid-channel gravity. 5,362.03 – 0.764 Fib extension + recent channel low. 🔻 Downside Long-Term Targets: 5,500 – 0.382 Fib 4,700 – 0.618 Fib Retracement & previous high 4,300 – 0.764 Fib Retracement - Unlikely, but possible. ✅ Justification: ❗ Please read - ❗ Higher Time Frame Long Term Analysis - ❗ Geopolitical/economic risks (see fundamentals below) could accelerate downside. ⚡ Key Takeaways: 🔹 SPX500 is at a crossroads : Bearish reversal likely if rejected at 6,663.37–6,832.13 . 🔹 Breakdown below 5,755.70 confirms channel breakdown, targeting 5,362.03 . 🔹 Bullish bias requires hold above 6,832.13 ; otherwise, bears dominate. 📰 Fundamental Catalysts (March 8–15, 2025): Economic Releases: 📅 Mar 10 : U.S. CPI Inflation (High Impact) – Core CPI at 3.2% y/y could force Fed hawkishness. 📅 Mar 12 : Retail Sales (High Impact) – Expected 0.3% MoM post-holiday slowdown. 📅 Mar 14 : FOMC Meeting & Dot Plot – Fed may hike +50bps ahead of 2025 elections. 🌐 Geopolitical Developments: 📅 Mar 11 : Belgium Elections – Risk of coalition fragmentation delaying EU fiscal unity. 📅 Mar 13 : Middle East Tensions – Reported Iran-Israel escalation impacts energy markets. 📅 Ongoing : Brexit 2.0 Developments – UK-EU trade deal negotiations resume, GBP volatility. 📊 Market Sentiment: 📉 Equity Flows : Hedge funds remain underweight equities (BofA survey), suggesting short-term liquidity-driven rally. 📉 Options Market : SPX500 gamma gap at 6,800 killed by recent churn, hedging flows may cap tops. 🎯 Portfolio Management Strategy: 💰 Buy Entry : At 5,755.70 (0.382 Fib confluence). 🎯 Take Profit : 6,570 (Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:6). ❌ Stop Loss : Below 5,624.61 (50% Fib). As price approaches 6,600, consider allocating capital to long-dated puts on the SPX500 to hedge against volatility spikes. A confirmed break below 5,755.70 would signal a shift toward bearish regimes, aligning with geopolitical tensions and potential Fed tightening.
BLACKBULL:US500.FLong
by Who-Is-Caerus
S&P500: Broke its 1W MA50 after 17 months. Recovery or collapse?The S&P500 turned oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 29.430, MACD = -85.410, ADX = 51.223) as it breached today its 1W MA50 for the first time since the week of October 30th 2023, i.e. almost 1.5 year. That was a week of a very aggressive recovery after a Channel Up correction, with the bullish sequence reaching 9 straight green weeks. With the 1D RSI ovesold and the 1W RSI almost on the 39.15 Support, which was the low of the October 23rd 2023 1W candle, the index couldn't have been technically on a better long term buy spot. Needless to say, the market can't rise if the fundamentals are against it and right now the geopolitical tensions and more importantly the trade war isn't helping. If the index does find a positive catalyst to take advantage of, then the bullish technicals of the Channel Up bottom will prevail, and this week's candle may resemble the Max Pain 1W candle under the 1W MA50 of October 23rd 2023. Even if it doesn't rise as high as the 2.382 Fibonacci extension of that rally, we would expect in that instance a 2.0 Fib extension rally like the post August 2024 bullish wave (TP = 6,700). Failure to find support this week though, will most likely result in further collapse (even more aggressively so) to the 1W MA100. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:SPX
by InvestingScope
4
S&P 500 Wave Analysis – 10 March 2025 - S&P 500 index broke support zone - Likely to fall to support level 5600.00 S&P 500 index recently broke the support zone between the support levels 5775.00 (monthly low from January) and 5690.00 (strong support from October and November). These support levels coincided with the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of the earlier upward impulse from September. S&P 500 index can be expected to fall to the next support level 5600.00 (target price for the completion of the active short-term impulse wave (i)).
SP:SPXShort
by FxProGlobal
S&P 500 Breakdown at Key Support LevelThe S&P 500 is showing clear signs of technical weakness as it breaks below a key support level around 5,675, coinciding with the 200-day EMA. This breakdown follows a rejection at 6,130, a recent high that established a resistance zone. With the index now trading below the 50-day EMA, downside risks are increasing. If the 5,668 level fails to hold, further declines toward the next major support zone could materialize. Traders will be watching for a potential retest of broken support as resistance before determining the next move. Key Levels to Watch: 📉 Support: 5,668 📈 Resistance: 6,130 -MW
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by FOREXcom
America's Finest 500 brace for tariff impactIn my last piece, I'd had the downtrend coming too early as only a technical formation to follow through. Now the news would not allow any sunshine close to the S&P's Best so soon, as the Trump Administration will introduce tariffs to Canada and Mexico imports. The short term trends on the index are already in the red. More Tariffs The Administration also plans tariffs on the Agrarian sector, which comes as horrific news to the farmers who import many material to produce their goods. The Administration calls for farmers to simply "overproduce" and start producing their goods in America, but there are three problems with that: 1st, the costs for staff. Not many people are left who could work on American farms after Trump's Administration has them deported by the grand. Hiring people to do hard labor almost nobody wants to do these days anymore is close to impossible at the current level of wages. The farmers have to prop up the payments if they want to have a chance to produce the required surplus at all. 2nd, the surplus. The produced surplus of goods does not allow to compensate costs with higher prices, as food will begin to flood the market and decrease food prices. That's good for food-insecure households, but will end in a disaster for the farmers, many of which will be forced to give up. Large agricultural corporations are likely to take over land from farmers, and they'll jack up prices back again as soon as they can. 3rd, the market . Whether the domestic market can consume farm's produce in a whole, no matter how big the surplus, is unclear for now as many households are currently above their price points on groceries. However when the surplus comes to market and produce becomes cheaper, there is not much wiggle room the surplus can fill before leading to a massive fall of prices and, thereafter, the sector of independent farmers. Also for big corporations the surplus can become a problem, because many countries will retaliate Trump's tariffs with their own tariffs to hit U.S. exports with a huge blow on their appeal. Multilateral Tariffs Union against the USA In multiple countries, once huge and high-ranking trade partners with the U.S., a Tariffs Union with members in Europe and Asia are discussed between politicians. As many countries face U.S. tariffs, the idea to create a new market of Free Trade aside America is floating around. European lawmakers discuss the idea of creating a Tariff Union with a few of the BRICS states, such as Brazil, South Africa and China, and propose that the EU lifts tariffs wherever the U.S. has laid them, so goods with a tariff for the U.S. can be sold elsewhere tariff-free. U.S. will drown in surplus production with nowhere to go Such plans would make it significantly harder for the U.S. to import goods their economy requires, and as the Tariffs Union would react on U.S. tariffs with their own, the U.S. will find it even harder to export its surplus. For now, such concrete plans depend on new players stepping up to the stage, such as Germany's Chancellery Candidate Friedrich Merz. The Germans, always reluctant to lay new tariffs onto the Chinese, could become a strong voice to form such trading alliances, even if they come with a price: China's forthcoming on such plans might depend on the EU's position on Taiwan, which the Union might reconsider and eventually overthrow, basically having no real interests to protect in the region. (Except for the electronics and chips industry, which is lured to the U.S. by Trump and creating a surplus of goods there.) The U.S. market and economy are facing sinister times domestic and foreign, as Trump's politics are currently only profiting one faction of participants: the short sellers.
VANTAGE:SP500Short
by Johnny_TV
S&P INTRADAY Bearish & Oversold Capped by 5768 resistanceKey Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 5768 Resistance Level 2: 5800 Resistance Level 3: 5920 Support Level 1: 5647 Support Level 2: 5624 Support Level 3: 5560 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
SPX500 - Daily Market Analysis 10 Mar 2025 The market will open lower today. - The bulls see this as a retest of the March 7 low. - They want a higher low followed but a higher low major trend reversal. - If the market breaks lower, they want a failed breakout followed by a reversal to close the day with a long tail or a bull body. - The bears want a continuation lower. - They need to create follow-through selling below the January 13 low to increase the odds of a measured move down which will take them near the 5400 area. - If the market trades higher, they want poor follow-through buying, followed by a second leg sideways to down to retest the current leg extreme low (now Mar 7). - The parabolic wedge increases the odds of a minor pullback. The move down is strong enough for traders to expect at least a small second leg sideways to down after any pullback. - If the market trades higher, traders will see the strength of the pullback. If it is weak and stalls around the bear trend line or the 20-day EMA, the odds of another leg down will increase.
SP:SPX
by Tech_Trader88