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US500 trade ideas

SPX 1D 200 EMA Retest? As the 9&21W EMAs cross and a new local low printing after a SFP top, could the S&P500 be getting its first major correction since Jan 2022? From a TA standpoint this kind of setup looks to be high probability with good R:R for the bears. Targeting the 1W 200 EMA is the most logical area as it remains major support and whenever tested holds strong. From a bulls standpoint this is worrying but could be rectified with a reclaim of the 9&21 EMAs preventing a "death cross" from there acceptance above the high would be the next step to maintain the rally. Fundamentals play a major role and the geopolitical world shows no signs of slowing down, perhaps the tariffs angle is introducing uncertainty in American companies? Or the index is just exhausted from 2.5 years of climbing? Either way the chart is an interesting one to monitor for now.
SP:SPX
by ProR35
4
Another 682 point crash for S&P500 to 5,130?It's been a brutal year so far with the Trump Presidency. And it's been a rough year for the S&P 500, dropping from 6,149 to 5,811. The main culprit? Political instability in the U.S. The current administration’s unpredictable decisions, sudden tariff hikes, and policy shifts have left investors uneasy and consumers lacking confidence. Here are six executive orders that have dragged the market down: Tariff Hikes on China, Mexico, Canada and Europe – Higher import costs hurt U.S. businesses, especially in tech and retail, slashing profits. Remember imposing tariffs are one thing but there will be retaliatory action. Environmental Rollbacks – ESG investors pulled back, hitting energy and industrial stocks. Work Visa Cuts – Tech and healthcare struggled to hire, slowing innovation. Healthcare Subsidy Cuts – Uncertainty in insurance and pharma led to stock drops. Also with the cutting of USAID and with turbulence with WHO this isn't helping the situation Trade Agreement Pullouts – Supply chain chaos hurt multinational corporations. ALso with the cutting ties with Ukraine and now with the UK prohibiting funding to the Ukraine (latest on) With shaky policies and no clear direction, market confidence is shot. Until stability returns, expect more turbulence. With the price action, it is possible to see this M Formation play out for the SP500. And it is looking bad, really bad - not great - In Trump's voice. M Formation Price<20MA Needs to break <200MA Then the next target will be around 5,130... Let's actually hope I am wrong this time and something miraculously happens to pump up the market again. We can take advantage and short stocks, indices etc... But there is a moral issue involved with wanting the market to crash. Remember that.
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by Timonrosso
2022 Déjà Vu? Markets Stalling at a Critical Level2022 Déjà Vu? Markets Stalling at a Critical Level | SPX Market Analysis 05 Mar 2025 We expected roller-coaster swings this week, and the market hasn’t disappointed. The price action feels oddly familiar, reminiscent of early 2022, when a failed all-time high attempt led to a slow, choppy bear market. Right now, the market is stuck at a key decision point—dithering at the lower range like it can’t decide whether to break down or bounce back up. ADD data leans slightly bullish, suggesting a possible range-bound chop with an upward bias, unless sellers take full control and push us into the February/March correction cycle. No need to guess—I’m hedged and ready for either outcome. The only thing left to do? Wait for the market to tip its hand. --- Deeper Dive Analysis: The market is moving exactly as expected—lots of noise, little commitment, and price action that mirrors early 2022, just before the slow-motion bear market began. 📌 What’s Happening Right Now? Markets failed to make new highs and are now chopping near the range lows The last time we saw this structure? Early 2022 before a major shift downward Price is hesitating, signalling traders are waiting for a catalyst 📌 Two Possible Outcomes: 1️⃣ A Range Reversal (Bullish Scenario) ADD data suggests a short-term bullish bias A grinding, sideways move with an upward tilt is likely Ideal for small, quick trades—but no trend confirmation yet 2️⃣ The February-March Correction Cycle (Bearish Scenario) If support fails, sellers could accelerate the move lower Seasonal trends often bring a correction this time of year Watching for signs of a decisive breakdown 📌 How I’m Approaching This Market: ✅ Staying hedged so that a move in either direction is fine ✅ Being patient—waiting for a strong move before committing capital ✅ Avoiding impulse trades—letting the market tell me what’s next Traders who rush in too early this week could get chopped up in the indecision, while those who wait for a clear confirmation will be in the best position to capitalize. --- Fun Fact 📢 Did you know? The biggest one-day percentage drop in history wasn’t 2008—it was Black Monday in 1987, when the Dow crashed 22.6% in a single day. 💡 The Lesson? Markets can collapse out of nowhere, but structured traders with hedges and a system don’t panic—they profit.
SP:SPX
by MrPhilNewton
S&P500 1D MA200 hit after 16 months!The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a multi-year Channel Up since the October 12 2022 market bottom and hit yesterday its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 16 months (since November 01 2023). This is naturally an excellent technical buy entry for the long-term on this structure but is also a Higher Low for the Channel Up. At the same time, the 1D RSI has almost reached its oversold barrier (30.00), which during those 2.5 years has offered the 5 most optimal buy signals. Given that each rally after such Higher Low has been -4% weaker than the previous, we can expect the one that is about to begin to be +20% (-4% less than the previous one of +24%). As a result, our new long-term Target is 6900. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:US500Long
by TradingShot
5
US500 Will Move Lower! Sell! Please, check our technical outlook for US500. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The price is testing a key resistance 5,819.9. Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 5,578.2 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by SignalProvider
2
BEAR 2025 IN NUMBERS (2.0)🐻 In my May post last year about the U.S. stock market’s mid-term cycle, I promised to estimate the probable amplitude of the forecasted correction in the current cycle. "When should we expect the bottom of the current 4-year cycle? If we are near the top, considering the current 20-week base cycle that has just begun, we can preliminarily talk about October-November 2024. The average correction from the top of a 4-year cycle ranges from 20% to 50%. Once the cycle’s peak is reached, we will be able to estimate the approximate correction level." 👉 I already made a numerical forecast in early September, but it turned out to be premature. Another base cycle was needed to form the peak of the long cycle, which is now in the correction phase. ☝️ Assuming that: 🔸 The December 9 extreme forecast, made at the beginning of 2024, became the peak of the 4-year and 50-week cycles. On the futures chart, this level is the absolute maximum—see the futures chart. 🔸 The double top of the current 20-week base cycle at the January 29 extreme forecast confirmed the end of the 4-year trend. This level can be taken as the starting point for calculating target correction levels. ☝️ The calculation is based on technical support levels and the following assumptions: 1️⃣ The average correction from the top of a 4-year cycle ranges from 20% to 50%. 2️⃣ When coinciding with the 4-year cycle, the final phase of the 50-week DJIA cycle often tests or breaks the low of the previous 50-week cycle. 3️⃣ The start of a new 4-year cycle will be bullish. Ahead of a more severe crash in the next 1.5 years due to the 7-year crisis cycle, the risk of a stock market drop greater than 25% in the current base cycle is low. 👉 The resulting target levels are: 🔸 **DJIA** -17% to 1st level **38,000** 🔸 **DJIA** -20% to 2nd level **36,000** 🔸 **SPX** -20% to 1st level **4,900** 🔸 **SPX** -25% to 2nd level **4,600** ⚠️ The current 4-year cycle has clearly been prolonged, resembling the situation during the 1987 crash. The next 4-year cycle may be shortened to 3.5 years. Remember that the new 4-year cycle should complete the current 7-year crisis cycle, bottoming out in 2028, with tops in summer 2025 and spring 2026. The timing is perfect so far.
CBOE:SPX
by irinawest
SPX chart update after calling moves to the $ for 3 yearsHere is the 1st chart I did of SPX back in Jan 2022: I called the drop to the yellow line on chart. Nailed it to nearly the exact $. Then in October 2023 I mentioned this: The rally was confirmed for the next 6 months minimum. Then in Jan 2024 I posted a red horizontal line as target for the rally: Now you can see on current bottom chart that price hit the red line target. This chart setup you see on bottom chart also shows relevance to the 1st chart I did on SPX where when the blue EMA8 went below the orange MA21, a drop happened as per the red X marks and price changes shown on chart. This is close to happening currently which is easier to see on the top chart as I give a close up view on current price action and the EMA/MA's. Are we about to see a drop as per yellow price change on chart or can SPX bounce from here and move up to the green horizontal line on chart? The EMA/MA crossunder will tell us. Even though I called the moves all correct previously, at this time in the markets, things are alot trickier so I cannot say with conviction this time around as to which way it will go. I will update the analysis once the bounce or cross under is confirmed.
TVC:SPX
by Pro_Trader_HTBB
S&P500 Index Goes 'Draconian', ahead of Roller Coaster ExplosionThe S&P 500's "roller coaster" behavior stems from its sensitivity to various economic, geopolitical, and market-specific factors that influence investor sentiment and corporate performance. Economic Factors: Changes in interest rates, inflation, and Federal Reserve policies significantly impact the index. For example, rising interest rates can reduce corporate earnings and valuations, leading to market sell-offs. Conversely, expectations of rate cuts can boost optimism and drive rallies. Investor Sentiment and Volatility: The S&P 500 is closely tied to the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often called the "fear gauge." The VIX rises during market downturns as investors seek portfolio protection, amplifying price swings. This inverse correlation highlights how fear or optimism can drive sharp movements in the index. Global Events: Geopolitical tensions, natural disasters, or pandemics can disrupt markets by creating uncertainty about future economic performance. Such events often lead to sudden spikes or drops in the S&P 500 as investors react to perceived risks. Valuation Cycles: Overvaluation or bubbles in specific sectors can lead to corrections. For instance, high price-to-earnings ratios combined with slower economic growth can result in prolonged periods of stagnation or volatility. These factors collectively create the "roller coaster" effect begun in the S&P 500. // Life is like a roller coaster, as you don't know what's going to be thrown at you next, so all you can do is give us your best shot. -- Best wishes, @PandorraResearch Team 😎
CBOE:SPX
by PandorraResearch
SPX500 is heading to a major correction.Just reading the charts—and if history repeats itself, we’ve entered a weekly MACD and RSI downtrend. I called this for Bitcoin a month ago, and some argued it could be invalidated. Now, we can see that’s nearly impossible. Macro Outlook The economy is in bad shape—you see the news. Trump’s tariffs are scaring investors for a good reason. He wants to avoid money printing and tighten supply, but how will companies and institutions get cash? By selling their stocks. No more free money—profits will have to come from selling assets, which will intentionally crash the market under Trump’s policy. Cycles & Recession We’re at the end of a cycle—everything is overbought and needs a reset before moving higher. We’re in a recession, even if no one wants to admit it. Conclusion 📉 Target price: 4850 📅 Estimated bottom: September 15, 2025 Expect volatility, occasional pumps, but on a weekly scale, the trend is down—unless something drastic happens. Q3 and Q4 will be bullish. 🚨 DYOR!
BLACKBULL:US500.FShort
by CryptoNikkoid
29
S&P Weekly... One More Shoulder?When we take a look at the weekly chart of the S&P with some indicators, seems like we are close to the end of a trend. RSI with the negative divergence, Stoch RSI and Macd heading down, possible head & shoulders pattern. Fibonacci (retracement) is also turning down from the 200 mark. 20 week average is broken down. Fibo 161 is almost at the same level as the 50 week average, which might hold the trend if we are lucky. Considering the pattern between Jan 2nd 2022 and Jan 2nd 2024 as a cup and handle, seems like we have reached its target level as well. One other option is the Elliott wave. If so, there might be a 5th leg, not sure if it will be higher though. Time will tell. However, the monthly chart is not looking bright either. Being cautious is a good idea.
TVC:SPX
by erdem_bilgin