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SPX500 H4 | Bullish uptrend to extend?SPX500 is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 5,709.32 which is a pullback support. Stop loss is at 5,670.00 which is a level that lies underneath the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 5,825.45 which is a level that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:SPX500Long
by FXCM
1
SPX: boosted by lower inflationThe Fed's rate cut and further slowdown of the US inflation boosted the US equity markets, where S&P 500 reached the newly fresh all-time highest level as of the end of the previous week. The highest weekly level reached was 5.761, while the index is closing the week at the level of 5.738. Released inflation data showed that the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the PCE index slowed down further to the level of 2,2% y/y in August, below market consensus, which increased sentiment in investors that the Fed might confidently cut rates further during the year. On the other hand, the environment of decreasing interest rates will be supportive to business, increasing expectations of higher profitability in the coming period. Analysts are noting that, with a cooling inflation, the Fed might now fully focus on the labor market in the coming period, and expect a positive impact for the further strengthening of the US economy. Aside from the tech companies, the materials sector especially gained during the week, adding a 3,4% to the value of stocks in this sector for the week. There are analysts who are pointing that the financial sector might also gain in the coming period, with an increase in lending activity.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
S&P 500 Weakness Relative to Gold?In this weekly chart of the S&P 500 Index denominated in gold (SPX/XAU), I’m observing a noticeable loss of momentum (relative to gold prices). This is evidenced by the decreasing gap between the 50 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and the 130 EMA at the latest local high compared to the previous one. Additionally, there is a shift in the 'behavior' of these moving averages — they have entered a phase of 'indecision' regarding trend direction. This is quite significant because, for decades, these moving averages have reliably provided a single crossover, followed by a clean multi-year trend. The last period when there were as many crossovers between the 50 and 130 EMAs within such a short time span was between early 1967 and late 1971. The period marked by the final MA-crossover of that range ultimately led to a dramatic decline of about 95% relative to gold, lasting approximately 8 years and 5 months, culminating in a bottom in January 1980. I also see additional evidence in the form of price struggling to hold above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the major cycle peak of late 2000. While price did break above this level several times in 2021 and even managed to hold above it for about six weeks (late November 2021 through early January 2022), it has since failed to reclaim that level. The most recent attempt in February of this year led to a rejection that resulted in a 16% decline over the subsequent eight weeks. Currently, the price relative to gold remains about 15% below that critical level. If we consider that a 72% decline in the S&P 500 (relative to gold) would be required to revisit the major cycle low seen in early September 2011, it’s clear that there’s significant room for downward movement. It’s important to note that the S&P 500 could continue delivering positive returns in nominal terms for years to come, regardless of how it performs against gold. The point here is to highlight a potential argument for relative weakness in the S&P 500 when compared to gold, which has been a strong performer so far this year. If this chart is indicative of broader trends, gold has a good chance to continue outperforming, even if this index continues to grind upward.
SP:SPX
by JamesBrown
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 27, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The S&P 500 Index has recently exhibited a classic gap-fill pattern, reaching 5739 with an adjusted Index Rally to 5763 during the current week's trading sessions. However, there is a strong likelihood of a retracement to the newly established Mean Support at 5700 in the upcoming week. This potential retracement could lead to a further descent to the subsequent Mean Support level at 5620, potentially disrupting the current trajectory. Conversely, a substantial rebound to the Outer Index Rally at 5840 may intercept an anticipated downward trend, nullifying the projected decline.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) or Wall of Worry?On the 4-hour chart following Jerome Powell’s recent rate cut announcement, the price action was not as strong as expected. While some media outlets labeled this as part of the “wall of worry,” where markets continue climbing despite negative sentiment, I observed signs of a potential Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) based on Wyckoff’s distribution schematic. The structure of the price, combined with key volume dynamics, led me to question whether this gradual upward movement was a true continuation or a deceptive distribution phase. Although the price has managed to sit just above the all-time high for multiple days, it hasn’t done so in a particularly strong way. Bearish divergences in the MACD and RSI indicate underlying weakness, and volume has remained light, signaling distribution rather than accumulation. While both a wall of worry and a UTAD can feature a slow grind upward, a wall of worry is typically supported by steady buying. In contrast, a UTAD appears similar but ultimately traps buyers before reversing sharply. The key difference here is the lack of strong follow-through above resistance and the mounting signs of exhaustion. In conclusion, despite the price holding slightly above the all-time high, the weak volume, bearish divergences, and fragile nature of this level suggest that we are more likely seeing a UTAD than a wall of worry. These factors point to distribution, and I expect a potential market reversal in the near term.
SP:SPXShort
by DHF82
Correction down for SPX500USDHi traders, Last week SPX500USD went up slowly (finish of wave 1?). I think we could see a correction down (wave 2) next week. Trade idea: Wait for a change in orderflow to bearish and a correction up on a lower timeframe to trade shorts. If you want to learn more about wave analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a like and respectful comment. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide signals. Don't be emotional, just trade! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by EduwaveTrading
A Fascinating Cycle in the S&P 500's ($SPX) Century-Long JourneyExplore this intriguing pattern in the S&P 500's performance over the past century, as highlighted by analyst Jay Kaeppel at Sentimentrader: - The Mid-Decade Boost: Remarkably, the 18-month period starting from October of a '4' ending year to March of a '6' ending year has consistently seen positive growth in the equity markets for the last ten decades - Visual Evidence: The accompanying chart illustrates the S&P 500's SP:SPX performance over the last 100 years, specifically highlighting the gains from October of years ending in 4 to March of years ending in 6 - Historical Success: We're on the cusp of this period once again. Historically, this timeframe has been lucrative, with the 1930s showing an impressive 64% return, while the 2010s saw a more modest, yet positive, return of about 4.5%. On average, returns of 35.8% were achieved during this periods - Cautionary Notes: While history provides a pattern, it's not a definitive predictor. Major fluctuations can and do occur Moreover, Jay points out that the current Shiller PE ratio stands high at 36.83 this October, potentially capping the upside when compared to starting points past decades in October of years ending in 4 -> Your Thoughts? Given this historical trend, do you believe that the trend in this decade will be positive again in the next 18 months, or do you believe that the current economic indicators make the patterns of the past irrelevant?
SP:SPX
by OfficerDonut
spx &nasdaq in an iminent drop of valuespx showing an iminent short going in value, where it can go? last time i tryed to do the math it would go arround 2700 but without any sure, the major stock whealtiest did a 3x wealth since covid drop, this could be another timer that can quintuple the value, or make more 15x time the value that they had before covid, it is an iminent drop coming, in my opinion, good for everyone even for world economies, to triple their whealth and put the profits in their balance sheet and put time their gdp growth, is a question of timing, after covid drop, that in my opinion, didnt had too much growth in manufactories and jobs, only people gowing ther whealth by the 'inflation' fault, anyway, there is an iminent drop in the stock market in the western countries, at least, im not into asian market but american indexes are in an eminent significant drop, in my POV.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Carlosdrcunha
SPX Pending Short: An expanding ending diagonalBased on my Elliot Wave analysis, I believe that S&P500 is right now in an expanding ending diagonal that still has one more 3-wave to go and we should see the peak reached on 1st Oct 2024, at the opening of Tuesday session. A couple of questions that is on my mind: 1. Will we see a throwover or a truncation? 2. Is the wave count correct? What if it has already ended? Self-doubt is a good thing for it pushes us to look deeper and try to find the answer, or we find a workaround. For me, my solution to "What if I'm wrong?" will be the red trendline. If SPX breaks this trendline, I will go short even if I don't see another 3-wave. Good luck!
SP:SPXShort
by yuchaosng
1
S&P 500 Index Irregular Correction➖ The SPX produced a higher high yesterday compared to mid-July. This higher high is part of an irregular correction. ➖ This higher high is the B wave of a major ABC. The high bearish volume on the 20th of September, the highest since March 2023, indicates that the bears are very active on this index. ➖ Selling pressure has been going up while buying pressure has been going down. ➖ Subtle signals are pointing toward a new drop in the coming weeks. Namaste.
SP:SPXShort
by AlanSantana
12
S&P 500 Consolidates as Investors Await Key Inflation ReportU.S. stock index futures slipped on Friday as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial inflation report, which could influence expectations regarding the size of upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The S&P 500 has reversed from its all-time high (ATH) and reached the support level of 5,732. The price is expected to consolidate between 5,784 and 5,732 until a breakout occurs. A bullish trend would resume with a break above 5,784, targeting a new ATH at 5,890. Conversely, a break below 5,732 would confirm a bearish trend towards 5,675. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5732 Resistance Levels: 5784, 5805, 5890 Support Levels: 5675, 5643, 5585 Trend Outlook: - Bearish: Below 5732 - Bullish: Above 5784
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Long to area 5791 (Wave 3).Dear colleagues, it seems that the price continues the upward movement in the wave “3” of the higher and lower order. This means that two scenarios are possible: 1) I expect a small correction to the area of 50% Fibonacci level 5550, then continuation of the upward movement. 2) Price will continue the upward movement in wave “1”, possibly immediately to the area of 5791. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Hellena_Trade
9
S&P 500 ($SPX) Elliott Wave Sequence Remains BullishShort Term Elliott Wave View in S&P 500 ( SP:SPX ) suggests that cycle from 8.5.2024 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse. Up from 8.5.2024 low, wave (1) ended at 5651.62 and dips in wave (2) ended at 5402.62. Internal subdivision of wave (2) unfolded as a zigzag structure where wave A ended at 5480.54, wave B ended at 5522.47, and wave C lower ended at 5402.62. This completed wave (2) in higher degree. Index has turned higher in wave (3) with internal subdivision as another impulse in lesser degree. Up from wave (2), wave 1 ended at 5495.14 and wave 2 pullback ended at 5406.96. Up from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 5560.41 and dips in wave ((ii)) ended at 5528.86. Wave ((iii)) higher ended at 5670.81 and pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 5614.05. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 5689.75 which completed wave 3 in higher degree. Pullback in wave 4 ended at 5615.08. Index has extended higher again in wave 5. Near term, as far as pivot at 5401. low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for more upside.
SP:SPX
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Historic View of SPX on Log ScalePrice channel captures the overall trend of the S&P 500 across time, with three parallel lines outlining the upper, middle, and lower bounds of the price action. The channel effectively contains most of the historical price movement within its boundaries, showing long-term upward growth with corrections. Significant Historical Points: 1929: Marked near the top of the channel, this represents the peak before the Great Depression. 1932: A trough near the bottom of the channel, showing the market low during the Great Depression. 1942: Another market low during World War II. 2000: Represents the peak of the dot-com bubble. 2009: The low following the 2008 financial crisis. 2020: The COVID-19 pandemic sell-off. 2022-2024: The most recent data shows the index near the upper boundary of the channel in 2024, indicating a period of significant market strength or potential overextension. The chart is logarithmic, with the price levels increasing exponentially from as low as $1.65 in the early 1900s to around $5,742 in 2024. The price axis reflects the long-term growth of the index.
SP:SPX
by PrestigeWorldwideTradingCo
Watch your longsSignificant bearish divergence on the Weekly RSI. Probably time to start taking some profits on those longs if you've not already done so. Recession rant: Are we due for a recession? OF COURSE WE ARE. Why? It's simple... nobody wants to work. Powell can cut rates all he wants and unemployment will keep rising not because there aren't enough jobs to go around, it's because ppl don't want to work. I live in a condo/hotel that's busy around the clock. Yet downstairs there's a cafe that's part of the hotel that's been shuttered since COVID. I asked management why they've never reopened and they say it's due to staffing issues. Major red flag to me... that a high-end hotel that can afford to pay its staff premium wages can't find enough workers despite overwhelming demand for services. Around me are 2 highrises leased by Google. They've remained vacant since the pandemic. Nobody wants to return to the office because they would then have to actually work... boohoo. The impression that our workforce has cast unto themselves that they are "just as productive at home" is complete delusion. If you haven't experienced a palpable drop in quality in almost EVERYTHING from groceries to web apps, then I dunno what to tell you. Productivity and expectation of is at an all time low... despite the market being at an all time high. The zeitgeist of the public isn't going to change overnight, it's gonna take some lean times to make people readjust what they're willing to accommodate. All I know is that the combination of AI eliminating jobs, rising unemployment, and the general lethargy from the workforce feel like ingredients to a cocktail in the form of a prolonged and painful economic recession.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by chinawildman
1
Bullish Stocks, But Watch Pullbacks and Gaps On SP500The stock market has been very bullish over the last two weeks, with strong gains this week following China's policy actions to support their economy. This has had a positive impact on stocks globally, and it’s no surprise to see the S&P 500 trading higher. Looking at the December futures contract, from an Elliott Wave perspective, we can clearly see a five-wave movement up from the September 9th low. While this bullish momentum continues, it’s important to be cautious as we may be nearing potential resistance in this fifth wave, around the 5,820 to 5,880 area. I think that pullbacks could occur in the next few days, especially if USD stays up with yields. If we do see a correction, the key levels to watch would be the previous swing supports, with the first at 5,754 followed by 5,674. These levels also correspond to regions of open gaps on the cash market, and typically when such gaps are filled, the market can resume its primary trend, which is up. So, if an ABC drop occurs into one of these gaps, it could present an opportunity to rejoin the uptrend in the stock market.
CBOE:SPX
by ew-forecast