[S&P 500] Cup & Handle pattern is completeSP:SPX has completed its cup & handle pattern. The price target would be 6200, let see if it could find the needed fuel.
Stop loss is simple: at the breakout line.
US500 trade ideas
S&P 500 ($SPX) Elliott Wave Sequence Remains BullishShort Term Elliott Wave View in S&P 500 ( SP:SPX ) suggests that cycle from 8.5.2024 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse. Up from 8.5.2024 low, wave (1) ended at 5651.62 and dips in wave (2) ended at 5402.62. Internal subdivision of wave (2) unfolded as a zigzag structure where wave A ended at 5480.54, wave B ended at 5522.47, and wave C lower ended at 5402.62. This completed wave (2) in higher degree.
Index has turned higher in wave (3) with internal subdivision as another impulse in lesser degree. Up from wave (2), wave 1 ended at 5495.14 and wave 2 pullback ended at 5406.96. Up from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 5560.41 and dips in wave ((ii)) ended at 5528.86. Wave ((iii)) higher ended at 5670.81 and pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 5614.05. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 5689.75 which completed wave 3 in higher degree. Pullback in wave 4 ended at 5615.08. Index has extended higher again in wave 5. Near term, as far as pivot at 5401. low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for more upside.
Historic View of SPX on Log ScalePrice channel captures the overall trend of the S&P 500 across time, with three parallel lines outlining the upper, middle, and lower bounds of the price action. The channel effectively contains most of the historical price movement within its boundaries, showing long-term upward growth with corrections.
Significant Historical Points:
1929: Marked near the top of the channel, this represents the peak before the Great Depression.
1932: A trough near the bottom of the channel, showing the market low during the Great Depression.
1942: Another market low during World War II.
2000: Represents the peak of the dot-com bubble.
2009: The low following the 2008 financial crisis.
2020: The COVID-19 pandemic sell-off.
2022-2024: The most recent data shows the index near the upper boundary of the channel in 2024, indicating a period of significant market strength or potential overextension.
The chart is logarithmic, with the price levels increasing exponentially from as low as $1.65 in the early 1900s to around $5,742 in 2024. The price axis reflects the long-term growth of the index.
Watch your longsSignificant bearish divergence on the Weekly RSI. Probably time to start taking some profits on those longs if you've not already done so.
Recession rant: Are we due for a recession? OF COURSE WE ARE. Why? It's simple... nobody wants to work. Powell can cut rates all he wants and unemployment will keep rising not because there aren't enough jobs to go around, it's because ppl don't want to work.
I live in a condo/hotel that's busy around the clock. Yet downstairs there's a cafe that's part of the hotel that's been shuttered since COVID. I asked management why they've never reopened and they say it's due to staffing issues. Major red flag to me... that a high-end hotel that can afford to pay its staff premium wages can't find enough workers despite overwhelming demand for services. Around me are 2 highrises leased by Google. They've remained vacant since the pandemic. Nobody wants to return to the office because they would then have to actually work... boohoo.
The impression that our workforce has cast unto themselves that they are "just as productive at home" is complete delusion. If you haven't experienced a palpable drop in quality in almost EVERYTHING from groceries to web apps, then I dunno what to tell you. Productivity and expectation of is at an all time low... despite the market being at an all time high. The zeitgeist of the public isn't going to change overnight, it's gonna take some lean times to make people readjust what they're willing to accommodate. All I know is that the combination of AI eliminating jobs, rising unemployment, and the general lethargy from the workforce feel like ingredients to a cocktail in the form of a prolonged and painful economic recession.
Bullish Stocks, But Watch Pullbacks and Gaps On SP500The stock market has been very bullish over the last two weeks, with strong gains this week following China's policy actions to support their economy. This has had a positive impact on stocks globally, and it’s no surprise to see the S&P 500 trading higher. Looking at the December futures contract, from an Elliott Wave perspective, we can clearly see a five-wave movement up from the September 9th low.
While this bullish momentum continues, it’s important to be cautious as we may be nearing potential resistance in this fifth wave, around the 5,820 to 5,880 area. I think that pullbacks could occur in the next few days, especially if USD stays up with yields. If we do see a correction, the key levels to watch would be the previous swing supports, with the first at 5,754 followed by 5,674. These levels also correspond to regions of open gaps on the cash market, and typically when such gaps are filled, the market can resume its primary trend, which is up. So, if an ABC drop occurs into one of these gaps, it could present an opportunity to rejoin the uptrend in the stock market.
Bulls and Bears zone for 09-26-2024Yesterday S&P 500 made ATH before pulling back and closing down for the day.
Level to watch: 5830---5828
Report to watch:
US: Pending Home Sales Index 10 AM ET
S&P 500 INDEX / Another ATH, WITH CORRECTIONS&P 500 Closes at Record Highs
The S&P 500 closed at all-time highs, as we mentioned previously,
Technically: The price will be consolidating between 5784 and 5732 till breaking,
The bullish trend will continue towards another ATH at 5890 by breaking of 5784,
However, a bearish trend will be confirmed if the price breaks below 5732 to get 5675.
Key Levels:
Pivot Line: 5784
Resistance Levels: 5805, 5890
Support Levels: 5732, 5675, 5643
Trend Outlook:
Bearish Correction till 5732
Bullish above 5784
previous idea:
SPX 500 Cup completed handle formation SPX500 has been creating a rounding bottom form 2021 to 2024 and we have tested the neckline we are expected to created a handle and retest 4350 and then it should push towards 5400-6200 range in the next few months.
S&P500 Bullish Wave CountI have been keeping this count and avoiding activating this count because of my bias. But recent events and how the market has been moving has forced my hand. I am showing this count on a weekly basis because there are issues with wave counting rules that shows up on the daily timeframe.
Over here, what you see is that the 5th Aug fall is now a wave 4 on the highest level shown in this chart, and the move up since is a wave 5 move.
This is consistent with the following events that are non-technical:
1. US debt ceiling removal until 1st Jan 2025.
2. US Presidential Election.
3. Sep Fed rate cut and probably further cut on or before the next FOMC.
4. China recent move that caused the Chinese and Hong Kong market to fly.
The existing issues with IWM and Nasdaq still below peak and showing such divergence is still a going concern that we will need to continue to monitor.
SPX500 Resistance Ahead!SPX500 keep growing in
An uptrend but the index
Will soon hit a horizontal
Resistance of 5645.15 and
After the retest we will
Be expecting a local
Bearish reaction!
$SPX Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Day Traders for Sept 26
No video again tonight but here is the trading range. Implied move is between 5685 - 5760 on the day. I’m looking to 5760/5670 spreads as of right now If we open up and it looks like we will based on futures.
35EMA has been holding us up since FOMC and it’s right in the middle today.
GL, y’all… I’ll keep you up to date on the wifi situation and hopefully videos will resume soon.
SPX Is Bearish! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for SPX.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 5,722.39.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 5,432.48 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Potential long tradeWhat we have here is a triangle pattern followed by a breakout and deep pullback followed by the second pullback, now if the price creates a higher high from here, we can go long.
WE ONLY TRADE PULLBACKS
Interest Rate Strategies: Trade Smarter with Fed Rate DecisionsInterest Rate Strategies: Trade Smarter with Fed Rate Decisions
Trading interest rates may seem straightforward at first: buy when cuts end and sell when they fall. However, this approach often defies expectations, as determining when rate cuts truly end isn't as simple as pointing to a rate pause following a cut. While today’s Federal Reserve rate decisions are made during scheduled (and unscheduled emergency) Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, this wasn’t always the case. Before the 1990s, the Fed often made changes outside of meetings. The shift to exclusively deciding rates during FOMC meetings was implemented to provide greater transparency and predictability for markets.
Topics Covered:
How Are Interest Rates Traded?
Three Interest Rate Trading Strategies.
Key Insights from Backtesting Interest Rate Trading Strategies.
Interest Rate Trading Indicator (Backtest For Yourself).
█ How Are Interest Rates Traded?
This strategy focuses on trading around Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, including hikes (increases), cuts (decreases), and pauses. These decisions are believed by many to have both short- and long-term effects on the market.
Key Strategy Concepts Backtested:
Buy on Rate Pauses or Increases: Go long (buy) when the Fed pauses or raises interest rates, typically signaling market stability or optimism.
Sell on Rate Decreases: Go short (sell) or close longs when the Fed cuts rates, often indicating economic concerns or slowing growth.
Buy on Specific Rate Decreases: Enter trades when the Fed implements specific rate cuts, such as 50 basis points (bps) which represents 0.5%, and analyze market reactions over different time horizons.
█ Strategy: Long during Pauses and Increases, Short during Decreases
This section examines the effectiveness of going long on rate pauses or increases and shorting during decreases. This strategy performed well between 2001 and 2009, but underperformed after 2009 and before 2001 compared to holding positions. The main challenge is the unpredictability of future rate changes. If you could foresee rate trends over two years, decision-making would be easier, but that’s rarely the case, making this strategy less reliable in certain periods.
2001-2009
Trade Result: 67.02%
Holding Result: -31.19%
2019-2021
Trade Result: 19.28%
Holding Result: 25.22%
1971-Present
Trade Result: 444.13%
Holding Result: 5694.12%
█ Strategy: Long 50bps Rate Cuts
This section evaluates trading around 50 basis point (bps) rate cuts, which is a 0.5% decrease. Large cuts usually respond to economic stress, and market reactions can vary. While these cuts signal aggressive economic stimulation by the Fed, short-term responses are often unpredictable. The strategy tends to perform better over longer timeframes, as markets absorb the effects.
1971-Present
Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: -0.19%
Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: 2.41%
Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: 2.46%
Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 11.4%
2001-Present
Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: -2.12%
Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: -1.84%
Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: -3.72%
Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 1.72%
2009-Present
Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: -15.79%
Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: -6.11%
Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: 7.07%
Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 29.92%
█ Strategy: Long Any Rate Cuts
This section reviews the performance of buying after any rate cut, not just large ones. Rate cuts usually signal economic easing and often improve market conditions in the long run. However, the size of the cut and its context greatly influence how the market reacts over different timeframes.
1971-Present
Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: 0.33%
Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: 2.65%
Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: 4.38%
Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 8.4%
2001-Present
Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: -1.12%
Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: -0.69%
Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: -1.59%
Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 0.22%
2009-Present
Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: -3.38%
Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: 3.26%
Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: 12.55%
Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 12.54%
█ Key Insights from Backtesting Interest Rate Trading Strategies
The first assumption I wanted to test was whether you should sell when rate cuts begin and buy when they end. The results were inconclusive, mainly due to the difficulty of predicting when rate cuts will stop. A rate pause might suggest cuts are over, but that’s often not the case, as shown below.
One key finding is that the best time to be fully invested is when rates fall below 1.25% or 1.00%, as this has historically led to stronger market performance. But this can be subject to change.
█ Interest Rate Trading Indicator (Backtest For Yourself)
Indicator Used For Backtesting (select chart below to open):
The 'Interest Rate Trading (Manually Added Rate Decisions) ' indicator analyzes U.S. interest rate decisions to determine trade entries and exits based on user-defined criteria, such as rate increases, decreases, pauses, aggressive changes, and more. It visually marks key decision dates, including both rate changes and pauses, offering valuable insights for trading based on interest rate trends. Historical time periods are highlighted for additional context. The indicator also allows users to compare the performance of an interest rate trading strategy versus a holding strategy.
Rally on stocks continue...We are not in bubble territory, we have room to continue.
For the present time, target is 6950 on SP500
SPX500Pair : SPX500 Index
Description :
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves
Break of Structure
RSI - Divergence
Rising Wedge as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame
Resistance Level
sp500SP500 is currently in an ascending channel and there are currently two scenarios. Scenario 1 can fall to the lower support of the channel with the reaction it receives from the media and rise from there. Scenario 2 can directly break the median and rise to the upper resistance of the channel. Which do you think will happen?
S&P 500, More Gains Coming...
S&P 500 Closes at Record Highs
The S&P 500 index closed at all-time highs on Monday as markets assessed comments from three Federal Reserve officials regarding the central bank's recent monetary policy decisions.
Technically: The S&P 500 has reached the bullish target we previously identified, Now The bullish trend will continue towards another ATH, provided the price remains above 5731 and 5708.
However, a bearish trend will be confirmed if the price breaks below 5675.
Key Levels:
Pivot Line: 5730 - 5708
Resistance Levels: 5784, 5805, 5890
Support Levels: 5675, 5643, 5621
Trend Outlook:
Bullish Trend: Above 5730 and 5708
previous idea:
S&P500 This rally isn't even halfway there!Last time we plotted the S&P500 index (SPX) against the Volatility Index (VIX) was almost a year ago (November 07 2023, see chart below) and that helped as catch a more than +20% rise:
This time, the two assets who are on a negative correlation don't trade on exactly opposite patterns. The S&P500 has been trading within a Channel Up for almost 1 year (since the October 30 2023 Low), while VIX is on a (wide) range with a clear Support Zone and peaks within a 22.00 - 24.00 Resistance Zone, with the exception of the early August rise that spiked above it (recession fears).
Naturally, VIX's spikes and rejections (red circles) are SPX's bottoms and reversals (green circles). The blue circles that are bottoms for VIX inside its Support Zone are mid rally consolidations on the S&P500. This indicates that even when the Volatility bottoms and starts rising, the market is still in euphoria and it takes another half rally before it realizes that an aggressive volatility spike is coming.
This can be particularly helpful in determining how long we still have to keep buying. Based on VIX's current position (ellipse shape), we are on the consolidation phase before the Support Zone test. Which means that we aren't even halfway through SPX's Bullish Leg.
We expect that to be around mid to end of October, just before the U.S. elections to come up as a needed correction. As a result, we are expecting an end-of-year price at around 6200.
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$SPX Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Day Traders Sept 25
Ok, so I can’t make a video tonight :( My Wifi is down in my neighborhood because they are putting new lines in, and to make matters worse there’s a hurricane coming this way so it won’t likely be fixed until it passes so I can only do as much work as my hotspot will allow
Easy Trading Range here today, much easier than QQQ, lol, that one is a mess… but here we have an easy one… the implied move for tomorrow is between 568 to 574 and the only two levels in tomorrow’s implied move are ATH’s at 572.88 and the 35EMA, which is a clear support since after FOMC…
Personally looking at 5765/5775 bear call spreads OR 5700/5690 bull put spreads depending on how we move tomorrow
GL, y’all… I’ll keep you up to date on the wifi situation
Spx scalping startetgyUsing indictor levels to scalp. Using bands with stochastic to see overbought oversold zones.
Ema crossing for short term scalps
Where will markets trend next? Planetary patterns give us clues!Solar Eclipses are major 6-month pivot points. The next one is on October 2, 2024. Invest By Cycles decodes planetary patterns and astrological cycles as an investing enhancement tool to complement classic fundamental and technical analysis.
US500 (S&P): Trend in daily time framePlease pay special attention to the very accurate trends, rectangles, and colored levels.
Its a very sensitive setup, please be careful.
BEST,
MT
