US500 trade ideas
Bollinger Bands: Basics and Breakout Strategy🔵 What are Bollinger Bands?
Bollinger Bands are a popular technical analysis tool developed by John Bollinger in the early 1980s. They help traders analyze price volatility and potential price levels for buying or selling. The indicator consists of three lines plotted over a price chart:
Middle Band: A simple moving average (SMA), typically set to a 20-period average.
Upper Band: The middle band plus two standard deviations.
Lower Band: The middle band minus two standard deviations.
🔵 How Are Bollinger Bands Calculated?
Middle Band (MB): MB = 20-period SMA of the closing price.
Upper Band (UB): UB = MB + (2 × standard deviation of the last 20 periods).
Lower Band (LB): LB = MB - (2 × standard deviation of the last 20 periods).
The bands expand when volatility increases and contract when volatility decreases.
length = 20
basis = ta.sma(src, length)
dev = mult * ta.stdev(src, length)
upper = basis + dev
lower = basis - dev
🔵 How to Use Bollinger Bands in Trading
Bollinger Bands provide insights into market volatility and potential price reversals. Traders often use them to:
Identify overbought (price near the upper band) and oversold (price near the lower band) conditions.
Spot volatility contractions, which often precede significant price moves.
Confirm trend strength and potential reversals.
🔵 Bollinger Bands Breakout Strategy
One effective strategy involves preparing for breakouts when the upper and lower bands contract, indicating low price momentum.
Strategy Steps:
Identify Low Volatility Zones: Look for periods when the bands are close together, signaling a potential breakout.
Prepare for a Breakout: Monitor price action as it approaches either the upper or lower band.
Entry Signal: Enter a trade when the price closes above the upper band (for a long position) or below the lower band (for a short position).
Stop Loss Placement:
For long entries (break above upper band): Set stop loss at the lower band.
For short entries (break below lower band): Set stop loss at the upper band.
Profit Target: Use a risk-reward ratio of at least 1:2 or close the position when price shows signs of reversal.
Example Charts:
🔵 Final Thoughts
This Bollinger Bands breakout strategy is simple yet effective. By recognizing periods of low volatility and preparing for breakouts, traders can capitalize on significant price movements. Always complement this strategy with proper risk management and confirmation indicators for optimal results.
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves risk, and traders are solely responsible for their own decisions and actions.
$SPX - Analysis Key Levels and Targets for Feb 25
NVDA earnings plus the recent sell off and outflow give us a pretty wide trading range revolving around the 50 day MA.
That’s all I’m writing today and let’s go over it in tonights video.
Make sure to grab this chart (button just under the chart that says "Grab this chart" and let’s gooo…
SPX: Buy ideaOn SPX we would have a high probability of having an uptrend after a rebound on the support line and also with the breakout of the vwap.
$SPX Recap for Feb 24 - Today's Trading Range coming asap
Good Morning, y’all. I lost my voice (more like a sore throat, I feel fine otherwise but a sore throat so doing the charts on here today)
Yesterday - SPY opened with a pop up, and at the 1hr200MA got pushed underneath the 50 Day moving average. We got pack above the 50 day and got pushed back down by the one hour 200. That 1 hour timeframe is fighting back now that the 35EMA slid under the 30min 200. (That was a lot)
We DID trader completely within the implied move.
The 50DAY moving average is not pointing DOWN here.
SPX's Multi Month Stall at Resistance. A decision in SPX has to be due soon. For 4 months now it's barcoded at the same 1.61 general inflection zone.
From here I find we typically reject or we trade to the 2.20. Both of these would be a 8 -10% move - it's just a question of to which side.
SPX has started to shape up a lot like a break.
If the bear thesis is correct it needs to be evidenced by a big red monthly bar.
I'd estimate it has to be something in the range of about 8% and sometime March/April.
Should be fairly obvious. And we're getting to the levels where the break is close to being "Confirmed" (not that I rank the idea of confirmation too high, many of the worst trades ever were "confirmed").
9/10 sketchy.
Looking really sketchy out there.
S&P500 Channel Up bottomed. Huge reversal expected.The S&P500 index (SPX) had been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the August 2024 Low and yesterday broke below its 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 20 days. Since January 17, every such break below the 4H MA200 has been a technical buy opportunity.
This time it is even stronger as the index appears to be replicating the Channel's first price structure and more specifically Leg (d). What followed after Leg (d) bottomed, was a symmetrical with (b)-(c) +7.05% rise to form a top at (e).
The confirmation for this rise came when the 4H MACD formed a Bullish Cross. As a result, we are waiting for this confirmation to continue with additional buying on S&P and target 6330, which would be a +6.22% rise, symmetrical with (b)-(c).
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Two Possible Trades - Which one will trigger?Two Possible Trades – Which One Will Trigger? | SPX Market Analysis 25 Feb 2025
Monday came in swinging, continuing Friday’s move and landing price right at the range low target.
And what do we get?
A beautiful V-shaped reaction—just like we discussed in detail during our Fast Forward mentoring call.
Now we have two key scenarios unfolding, mirroring what we saw at the upper boundary of the range during the bullish breakout setup. Will we get a bullish turn, or will the market break down?
Triggers are set, charts are marked—now we wait.
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Deeper Dive Analysis:
Monday continued Friday’s momentum, taking price straight into the range low target, where we saw a classic V-shaped price reaction.
While no pulse bars have appeared yet, the location of this reaction is ideal, lining up perfectly with our 6 money-making patterns.
This gives us two possible trade setups, similar to what we saw at the upper range boundary during the last breakout assessment.
Scenario 1 – The Bullish Turn
✅ V-shaped reaction at a key level
✅ If confirmed, we could see a move back up into the range
✅ Waiting for additional confirmation (pulse bars, momentum shift, etc.)
Scenario 2 – The Bearish Breakout
✅ If price breaks below the range low, it confirms a downside move
✅ A clean breakdown could lead to a continuation of bearish momentum
✅ This would be a mirror setup of the bullish breakout from earlier
Right now, both triggers are marked up on the charts, waiting for price to confirm the next move. Until then, it’s a watch-and-wait game, keeping an eye on any momentum shifts or additional signals.
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Fun Fact
Did You Know the phrase “buy the rumour, sell the news” originated in the 18th century?
It was coined to describe the sharp market moves surrounding Napoleon’s defeat at Waterloo. Traders in the know made fortunes buying ahead of the news and selling into the ensuing hype!
The phrase became famous when financier Nathan Rothschild supposedly capitalised on early news of Napoleon's defeat in 1815. He bought up British government bonds while others panicked and sold. Once the victory became public, prices soared, making Rothschild a fortune.
It’s a timeless reminder to think ahead in the markets.
Falling towards pullback support?S&P500 (US500) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 5,938.92
1st Support: 5,865.87
1st Resistance: 6,051.54
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Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
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S&P500 | Historic Trends, Consolidation & Bull Flags [2030 END]I have been wanting to put my thoughts on the historic tends observed in the S&P500 in a post for some time and decided to focus this discussion on the relationship observed between S&P 500:
* Bull Flag runs (~17 to 25) years in length
* Consolidation Period (~13 to 15) years in length
* 27 Period (2 Monthly) SMA - Aqua Colored Line
* RSI
NOTE: Chart is looking at logarithmic price of the S&P500 on the 2 Monthly time period.
S&P 500 HISTORY | 27P(2M) SMA, CONSOLIDATION PERIOD & BULL FLAG RUNS SINCE 1943
The below images show 'Consolidation Periods' governed by 'Black Trend Lines', 'Bull Flags' (Orange / Navy / Aqua) governed by colored measured moves between these periods and the 27P(2M) SMA in Aqua.
Key Takeaways for Longterm Investors
Key take aways Looking at the S&P 500 from such a zoomed-out perspective:
* CONSOLIDATION: Periods of consolidation required investors to proactively manage their investment. A buy and hold approach left investors' money in limbo not doing a lot over these time periods. Investors who could identify the S&P was in a period of consolidation did well by selling at the upper and buying at the lower trend lines once they became apparent.
* BULL FLAG: Run periods rewarded the discipline 'Dimond hands' investor, providing key holds at the 27P(2M) SMA and future higher highs. A good strategy during these periods was to accumulate at the 27P(2M) SMA.
RSI ANALYSIS
As we are currently in a Bull Flag period for the S&P500 (Aqua Measured Moved), lets now look at the relationship between the RSI and price to identify key historic behavior which may be useful with current price behavior.
It is notable that historically the RSI tends to oscillate between rising and falling channels when exhibiting price Consolidation / Bull Flag price behavior.
Bull Flag (1943 to 1968) – 25 years
Focusing on the orange measured move or first Bull Flag period from approximately 1943 to 1968, observable characteristics include:
* At the consolidation period price break out, RSI continued to set higher highs until peaking (with the first lower high) at Point 1 - this marked approximately the halfway point of the bull run period.
* Retest and hold behavior with the 27P(2M) SMA for the entirety of the run
* End of bull run period and start of consolidation period confirmed with price breaking below and first candle open and close below the 27P(2M) SMA at Point 2 .
The Stochastic RSI has helped to identify if price is set to put in a higher low during bull flag periods and has been a reliable indicator in confluence with the 27P(2M) SMA.
Consolidation Period (1968 to 1983) – 15 Years
Consolidation period starts at the end of the prior bull flag and confirmed at Point 2 where price has broken below and opened and closed the first candle below the 27P(2M) SMA. This has been marked with the aqua vertical line on the chart.
Price is confirmed to have left the consolidation zone once it breaks to the upside of the black trend line (in some cases with a retest).
Change in price behavior from ranging to bullish within the consolidation period has been identifiable historically with a break above the 27P(2M) SMA followed up by a retest and holding the 27P(2M) SMA as support. Price has tended to range between the consolidation period trendlines until this price behavior is achieved.
The Stochastic RSI has helped to identify if price is set to put in a low during consolidation periods and has been a reliable indicator in confluence with the lower black trend line.
It is notable the Momentum Bias Index has printed RED bars on the histogram during all historic consolidation periods reviewed (2 in total) when the bottom of the consolidation period has been set.
Similar observations have been observed in the below two future consecutive Macro Bull Flag and Consolidation periods reviewed in this analysis.
Bull Flag (1983 to 2000) – 17 years
Consolidation Period (2000 to 2013) – 13 years
CURRENT PERIOD | WHERE ARE WE NOW? BULL FLAG TO FINISH IN 2030 ESTIMATION?
If the S&P 500 is to continue historic trend and continue consecutive Bull Flag / Consolidation periods, this would suggest the current bull flag run could end in 2030 and the next consolidation period would begin. This is based on the same bull flag measured move approach and estimations of the bull flag structures discussed in the prior bull flag / consolidation periods.
It is noted that the prior consolidation period (2000 to 2013) left this zone and peaked at the RSI high relatively early compared to prior periods. According to the review of other bull flags this suggests the middle part of the bull flag run occurred in 2015. It is unclear if this would result in a reduced bull flag period run and a material lower high than the measured moved.
It is also noted at current prices a retest and hold of the 27P (2M) SMA would result in a 30% drop. A move in the market of this magnitude would result in some interesting news headlines but historically would show nothing out of the ordinary for S&P500 price behaviour.
S&P500 Index Goes 'Floundering', ahead of Bearish HarvestWhile the S&P 500 is generally expected to perform well in 2025, with forecasts suggesting gains ranging from 9% to 14.7% depending on the source, there are several factors that could lead to a less favorable performance or even a decline:
High Valuations: The S&P 500 is currently trading at high valuations, with a P/E multiple of 22 times projected earnings, which is above historical averages. This elevated valuation increases the risk of market downturns if there are negative economic shocks.
Economic Uncertainties: The economic landscape is filled with uncertainties, including potential inflation increases and geopolitical tensions. These factors can impact investor confidence and lead to market volatility.
Interest Rates and Bond Yields: Higher bond yields can reduce the attractiveness of stocks compared to bonds, potentially leading to a decline in stock prices.
Earnings Growth Expectations: While earnings are expected to grow, there is a risk that actual growth may not meet these expectations, which could negatively impact the market.
Policy Risks: Changes in trade policies, such as tariffs, and shifts in fiscal policy could also affect the market's performance.
Historical Patterns: Achieving three consecutive years of high returns (above 20%) is rare for the S&P 500, suggesting that 2025 might not see such strong gains.
Overall, while there are positive forecasts for the S&P 500 in 2025, these potential risks could lead to a less robust performance or even a decline if they materialize.
// While salmon make up the bulk of their diet, Coastal Brown Bears also enjoy a fresh flounder now, and again.
Best wishes,
PandorraResearch Team 😎
S&P 500 in Declining Impulse WaveThe S&P 500 (SPX) appears to be forming an Elliott Impulse wave down from the all-time high made on 02/19/25.
A short-term bottom in the 5,570 to 5,960 area on 02/25/25.
Watch 30-minute RSI for possible bullish divergence.
S&P500: Bottom is close to the 1D MA100. Be ready to buy this.S&P500 just turned bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 43.037, MACD = 10.020, ADX = 22.686) as it reversed the early gains and is currently on Friday's low levels, getting closer to the 1D MA100. That is the strongest support level in the last 40 days and according to the 1H RSI, the index may be close to a bottom. The 1H Death Cross typically prices the low on this pattern and we expect a reversal starting tomorrow. Go long and target the LH trendline (TP = 6,120).
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Financial Cycle (not Economic Cycle) - Chu kỳ tài chính Financial cycle:
- 10Y down and sideway -> Gold up (*)
+ In phase (*): In 10Y down -> capital will flow to manufacturing, Real estate, industrials, etc.
- 20Y up and reaching top -> Gold down and sideway (**)
Correlate with unemployment rate:
- Rise stronger as the (**) reach its ending and vice versa
US10Y:
- Interestingly, interest rate does not affect how businesses operate and innovate economically. In fact, rising interest in long-term -> Economy doing great, innovations prosper, allowing lenders to charge high
SPX/DJT comparisonChart comparing SPX and DJT.
This count has SPX and DJT in wave ((2)) of ((5)), with wave ((2)) of SPX as an expanded flat and wave ((2)) of DJT as a regular flat.
For SPX, wave B of the expanded flat ends up being 200% of wave A (nearly to the tic). For DJT, wave B of the regular flat ends up being ~90% of wave A.
If correct, would expect wave C to target March 2020 lows.
SP500 - SHORT - 3HRsThis technical analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Remember to always research and consult with a professional before making investment decisions. Good luck! 📈💼🚀
S&P 500 key levels to watch
The S&P 500 has bounced off its earlier lows in the last couple of hours, after dipping to take out liquidity below Friday's low (6011) and key support around 6000. Where do we go from here?
On Friday, the index tumbled sharply to close near the lows. Whether that marked a near-term market top remains to be seen. A downside follow-through would attract selling activity, but the long-term trend remains bullish. The short-term trend line has been broken, which could be a bearish reversal signal, as too could be the bearish engulfing weekly candle.
Given how strong the markets have been in recent months, a correction might be welcomed even by bullish investors as it could create better buying opportunities.
On the daily chart, the key level to watch is 6000—a psychologically significant level. This level has acted as both resistance and support multiple times. A daily close below this level could potentially lead to a decline towards the lower end of the recent range circa 5830, with interim downside target being at 5908. Below that, the 200-day moving average may come into focus if selling pressure continues.
Resistance is seen at 6033 and then 6075, levels that were formerly either support or resistance.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Escalator Up, Elevator Down -- We Are Overdue For A PullbackI've been waiting for this pullback for weeks/months. The DOJ civil suit against UNH last week 2/21 felt like the first domino.
Major pullback from AprilAs of now, the S&P 500 stands at a notable 6,013.12. Recent technical analysis suggests potential exhaustion in the market. Key indicators to watch include the moving averages—if the shorter-term average crosses below the longer-term average, we may see a "death cross," signaling a bearish trend.
Reflecting on past experiences, on February 3, 2020, the S&P 500 peaked at 3,376 before dropping to 2,439 by early April 2020—a significant decline of about 27.8%. The market then almost doubled, reaching 4,796 on December 1, 2021. However, it dropped again to 3,517 by October 2022, a decline of approximately 26.7%. Since then, the market has nearly doubled again, bringing us to today's high levels.
My thesis is that we will see a pullback soon, perhaps from April of ~20%!!
S&P INTRADAY oversold bounce back? S&P (US500) index pair price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend. The recent intraday price action appears to be a sideways consolidation after a retest of an all-time high on 19th Feb ‘25.
The key trading level is at the 6007 level, the consolidation price range and also the previous resistance is now a newly formed support zone. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 6007 level could target the upside resistance at 6057 followed by the 6106 and 6146 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of the 6007 support and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook opening the way for a further retracement and a retest of 5980 support level followed by 5967 and 5918.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
S&P500 -Weekly forecast, Technical Analysis & Trading IdeasMidterm forecast:
5677.80 is a major support, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be uptrend.
Technical analysis:
There is a divergence in RSI and price between the peak at 6107.47 on 2024-12-06 and the peak at 6150.07 on 2025-02-19, the probability of uptrend continuation is decreased and the probability of beginning of downtrend is increased.
While the RSI downtrend #1 is not broken, bearish wave in price would continue.
A peak is formed in daily chart at 6150.05 on 02/19/2025, so more losses to support(s) 6031.27, 5875.31, 5777.28 and minimum to Major Support (5677.80) is expected.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 49.
Supports and Resistances:
5568.78
5398.95
5194.10
5039.36
4944.41
4843.23
4662.99
4544.26
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Now, it's your turn!
Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast.
Have a successful week,
ForecastCity Support Team
$SPX Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Feb 24
Ok. So that 50 Day moving average needs to hold, lol, otherwise next support is around 5930.
Watch that 35EMA for a cross down under the 30min 200MA right at the top left corner of the trading range.
Don’t forget to grab the chart and let’s go….
SPX Finally Moves, Will 6000 Hold?SPX Finally Moves – But Will 6000 Hold? | SPX Market Analysis 24 Feb 2025
Last week’s market action was like watching a cat decide whether to jump off a shelf—hesitation, commitment, regret, and then chaos.
SPX pushed through the bull trigger on Wednesday, only to whip back through the hedge & bear trigger, finally showing some real movement on Friday. But before we get too excited, SPX is still stuck inside a larger range, with 6000 as the next key battleground.
Will we see a range breakout or another rejection?
Let’s dive in.
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Deeper Dive Analysis:
SPX Moves – But Is It Just Another Range Play?
Last week gave us plenty of action, but SPX hasn’t truly escaped its larger range yet.
📌 What happened last week?
SPX broke the bull trigger on Wednesday 🚀
Immediately flipped back through the hedge & bear trigger 🤦♂️
Friday’s move finally opened things up 🔓
Now, we’re eying 6000 as the next decision point.
📌 Two potential setups:
✅ Range Reversal – Price rejects 6000 and moves back inside the range
✅ Breakout Trade – SPX clears 6000, confirming a new leg up
Either way, I’ll be watching closely for the next trade setup.
VIX Says ‘No Crash… Yet’
📉 The volatility index (VIX) remains below 20, meaning:
No imminent crash signals 🛑
Fear is elevated but not panicking
Still room for surprises, but not full-blown chaos (yet!)
If VIX jumps past 20 and keeps climbing, then we’ll talk about more extreme downside risk.
Overnight Futures – A Small Bounce, But No Turn Yet
🌅 Futures are slightly green, but they don’t confirm:
A major bullish turn ❌
A full-blown breakdown ❌
Right now, it’s more noise than signal.
What’s Next?
📌 I remain bearish on my income swing trades 📉
📌 Waiting for confirmation—either:
Bullish reversal (v-shaped price action shift) 🔄
Bearish breakdown (clean range break below 6000) 🚨
For now, it’s another waiting game—but one that could pay off big when the next major move arrives.
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Fun Fact
📢 Did you know? In 2010, the Flash Crash wiped out nearly $1 trillion in market value in just 36 minutes, only to recover almost entirely by the end of the day. The culprit? A single trader’s algorithm running wild.
💡 The Lesson? Sometimes, market chaos isn’t about fundamentals—it’s just a rogue algorithm losing its mind.
