[S&P 500] Inflection point, potential C&H if breakSP:SPX is at inflection point. A potential cup & handle if it managed to breakout. FED & BOJ rate decision are this week, watch out for the volatility.
US500 trade ideas
S&P500 Extremely well supported. This uptrend will continue.Just 6 days ago (September 10, see chart below) we gave the most optimal medium-term buy signal on S&P500 index (SPX) as the price tested and held the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level:
The price rebounded strongly and is imitating the 0.5 Fib bounces of the previous 12 months that all started very strong rallies (+10.50% the weakest!).
This week we would like to go back to our long-term perspective on the wider time-frames (1W on this chart) as ahead of the Fed Rate Decision on Wednesday, we expect very high volatility that might cloud investor thinking and confidence to a strong degree.
There is no reason to diverge from our long-term bullish outlook (yet) as the index remains extremely well supported on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which was approached on August's low and was last time tested (and held) a year ago (October 23 2023).
A Higher Highs trend-line guides S&P to higher prices, similar to every such trend-line since 2016. The 1W RSI has started to form a Bearish Divergence, which was effective only in early 2022 and the start of the Inflation Crisis. As long as the 1W MA50 holds, the Sine Waves show that this uptrend is far from over.
Technically we should now see a continuation to around 5800 - 6000 and then a new medium-term correction. Our long-term Target is 6500, which based on the progressive nature of cyclical rises within this pattern (+63.50% then 105.00%), seems a modest one.
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SP500 Can Break To All-Time Highs After A Triangle ConsolidationBack in August the SP500 turned down for a deeper correction back to 5k area, at the same time when drop on all major indexes and some big cap names were pretty aggressive. However, there was a huge spike in VIX (not shown on this chart), so it must have been a lot of fear involved, which after initial selling shows extreme pessimism and that's when the market tends to stabilize, when least expected.
Well, what is most important is that we have seen some stabilization through most of the second part of August, but notice that the index did not reach new highs; it turned down at the start of the September, after moving up to 5655 area. So, we think that recent drop to 5400 area is actually subwave (C), ideally part of a complex correction, possibly a triangle in wave 4. Especially because of a recent turn up, that looks like a wave (D), so be aware of a slowdown in wave (E), which is still missing based on basic structure of a triangle pattern.
Anyhow, we think that sooner or later index will break to a new highs, ideally after FED rate decision.
NAS100 Technical Analysis and Trade Idea (NASDAQ)👀 👉 Here's my take on the current NAS100 (NASDAQ) situation:
The S&P 500 index is exhibiting clear signs of smart money influence. We're seeing a calculated manipulation of price action, with recent moves targeting a previous range high followed by an expansion to the downside. This pattern suggests institutional players are strategically positioning themselves for a potential bearish move.
## Interest Rate Speculation and Stop Hunting
The market's reaction to rumors of lower interest rates has created a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario. This rally has likely triggered a cascade of stop losses, setting the stage for a potentially significant sell-off. Such price action often precedes larger market moves, as it clears out weak hands and creates liquidity for larger players.
## Seasonal Considerations
Historically, mid-September has been a bearish period for the S&P 500. This seasonal tendency aligns with our current technical setup, adding weight to the bearish thesis. It's crucial to note that while seasonality isn't deterministic, it can provide an edge when combined with other technical factors.
## Technical Outlook
The daily chart shows bearish divergence on key momentum indicators. The MACD is displaying a bearish crossover, while the RSI, currently at 67.35, suggests there's ample room for downside before reaching oversold conditions . The index is also approaching overbought territory on the Stochastic oscillator, further supporting a potential reversal .
## Trade Strategy
Given this confluence of factors, my bias is decidedly bearish. I'm looking to initiate short positions targeting previous support levels. Key resistance to watch is around 5,624, which aligns with recent pivot points . For entry, I'll be watching for a break and retest of the current range lows, potentially around the 5,618 level .
Remember, while this analysis provides a strong directional bias, always manage your risk carefully. The S&P 500 can be volatile, especially during periods of economic uncertainty. Position sizing and well-placed stops are crucial for long-term trading success. 📉✅
SPX500 9/17/24💹 Indices:
👁️ Outlook
30m Context Time Frame: we are breaking bullish and accumulating, price just came off the 10ema and is pushing into higher prices. I expect NY to have some sort of pullback into the EMAs and take out some lows then we can see a continuation.
Daly Bias: Bullish
Keeping an eye on this. 👁️
S&p 500 daily time frame Hello traders,
I have observing a potential manipulation zone in the S&P 500. This suggests that the price might be artificially influenced, potentially leading to a rejection from this level. Waiting for the New York time zone for confirmation is a smart move.
Here's why:
* **Manipulation Zones:** These are areas where large players (institutions, hedge funds) might be trying to influence the price to their advantage. This can create false signals and make it difficult to predict the true direction.
* **New York Time Zone:** The New York time zone is crucial because it's when US markets open, and many large institutional players are active. Watching the price action during this period can give you a better idea of how the market is reacting to the potential manipulation.
**Remember:** Never rely on one signal alone. Always confirm your analysis with multiple indicators and the overall market context before making any trading decisions.
Good luck with your trades!
S&P 500 - break of Base AccumulationOn the intraday 1 hr chart , we can see the S&P 500 index is in a Rectangular Consolidation,
with price constrained between 5616 - 5636.
A false breakout occurred in the recent NY session ( Spring) , with high volume . This is a liquidity move and a bullish sign for this index.
We then see an impulse to the upside on low volume ( ie. low conviction with buyers).
Considering a price retracement now to the Fibonacci .618 - .705 level. From there,
price to break the consolidation to the upside with a measured move. This should be with high volume on the VSA to be confident of a true breakout.
S&P500 MAKE OR BREAK ZONE AS FED RATE CUTS APPROACH SIMPLE SCALES - COMPLEX FAILS
- Upside: A daily consolidation that holds 5600 would look great as this was a
previous consolidation area. Acceptance above 5650 would break the previous
range highs opening room into 5675, 5700 & 5750.
- Downside: Acceptance below 5600 can start to break a daily support which opens
room back into 5550, 5516, 5488 & 5435.
- Overall Thesis: ES daily pivot looks great, however there is still room for a
weekly and daily lower high. If we lose 5600, this chart can actually get pretty
ugly again. The 5600-5650 range is going to be an important area this week.
S&P 500 Faces Key Resistance Ahead of Fed Rate Cut DecisionI don't usually cover US stocks on this platform, but for those following the S&P 500, it had a strong rally over the past few days. However, it’s now facing resistance around $5,650, just shy of the all-time high set back on July 16, 2024. Despite the recent run-up, it couldn’t quite reach the resistance line, and everything now depends on how the market reacts to the Fed's rate cuts on Wednesday.
If the Fed cuts rates by 0.5%, we might see a solid push upward. However, with a 0.25% cut, here are the support levels on the downside. Remember, the market can move either way this is just my take. If you have questions, leave them below, and don’t forget to hit that like button!
S&P500: This rally has just started.The S&P500 is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 59.284, MACD = 37.100, ADX = 31.869) and is testing the 5,680 ATH R1 level. This is the 4H timeframe and as you see the current rebound was achieved on the 4H MA200. The 4H RSI is on the same levels as May 7th 2024 and November 3rd 2023, which were consolidations before a major Channel Up formation. Our Target is in tact (TP = 6,000).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Analysis on S&P: Dunno why it is so strongHi all,
In weekly timeframe, it has been SO HIGH to invest for SO LONG.
BUT, the price and momentum keep pushing up.
It is still not a good idea to short but also not good idea to long also.
Better wait and see or only do trading.
Best Regards,
TraderPP
SPX trying to create a lower high. Intraday Update: The SPX is stalling at the 88% retracement near 5629 and trying to create a lower high. Bulls will have to be very careful this week if we can't break the 5660 level.
SPx / US Investors Eye Fed as Larger Rate Cut LoomsUS Equity Investors Focus on Monetary Policy as Larger Rate Cut Becomes Likely Scenario
This week, U.S. equity investors will closely monitor the Federal Reserve's commentary and interest rate forecasts, with a 50 basis-point cut now emerging as the most probable policy move.
According to the FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 50 basis-point cut on September 18 has surged to 59% as of early Monday, up from 30% a week ago, following the inflation data released on September 11 and 12. The remaining 41% likelihood now points to a 25 basis-point cut, down from 70% the previous week.
S&P 500 Technical Analysis:
As long as the price trades under 5643 will drop to get 5584, Otherwise should break 5643 by closifn 4h candle above it to get 5675 and more,
Key Levels:
Pivot Line: 5616
Resistance Levels: 5643, 5675, 5709
Support Levels: 5600, 5584, 5525
Trend:
- Consolidation 5643 - 5584
- Upward above 5643
- Downward below 5628
Sell OpportunityTrading Signal: S&P 500 Index
Action: Sell
Entry Price: 5633.00
Take Profit: 5448.00
Stop Loss: 5720.00
Rationale: The S&P 500 index is currently positioned for a sell trade based on technical analysis indicating potential downside momentum. The entry point is set at 5633.00, with a take-profit target of 5448.00 and a stop-loss at 5720.00 to manage risk.
Disclaimer: Trading signals are for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Traders are advised to conduct their own analysis and consider risk management strategies before executing trades.
BTC vs. S&P500
I want to give you a view on if the S&P500 is outperforming or if it is Bitcoin. In my view the S&P500 will outperform BTC for a few months and then BTC will get stronger in the bearish swing phases , in between. But not now. Look at the higher lows and higher highs and at the green box and on the red box. Sellers are still in control, but buyers seem a lot stronger.
#US500 1DAYTrade Recommendation: SELL Opportunity for US500 Index
SELL Level:5650
Target Levels: 5500, 5600, 5200
Description:
The US500 index, representing the top 500 large-cap U.S. companies, is currently trading around the 5650 level. This level presents a strategic opportunity to sell, as technical and market indicators suggest a potential downturn.
Rationale:
Technical Indicators: The index has recently approached resistance levels, showing signs of overbought conditions. Historical data suggests that similar resistance levels have often preceded corrective moves.
Market Sentiment: Current economic data and market sentiment indicate potential headwinds, which could lead to a decline in the index.
Risk-Reward Ratio: Selling at 5650 offers a favorable risk-reward profile, with potential downside targets at 5500, 5600, and a more extended target at 5200.
Targets:
1.5500: Short-term target where initial profit-taking can be considered.
2. 5600: Intermediate level that could offer a partial exit or adjustment of positions.
3. 5200: Extended target for those with a longer-term bearish outlook, providing a substantial profit opportunity.
Risk Management:
Stop-Loss: Implement a stop-loss above the 5650 level to manage potential adverse price movements.
Position Sizing: Ensure appropriate position sizing to mitigate risk and align with your trading strategy.
Carefully monitor market conditions and adjust the strategy as needed to align with evolving trends and data.
SPX500 H4 | Falling to overlap supportSPX500 is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 5,563.51 which is an overlap support.
Stop loss is at 5,490.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 5,655.91 which is a swing-high resistance.
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SPX: on a verge of new ATHAfter the S&P 500 had the worst week in 2024, two weeks ago, the previous week brought the best week in 2024. This is how swift the investors sentiment has changed at the current moment. The index started the week at the level of 5.438 and reached its highest weekly level at Friday's trading session at 5.626. By gaining around 4% for the week, the index is currently only 1% lower from it's all-time highest levels. Aside from tech companies and semiconductor industry, this week utilities and industrials were also in the spotlight of the market.
Published US inflation figures pushed the investors sentiment higher in expectation that the Fed now has a clear case for the first rate cut. The inflation is clearly on a down path, reaching the level of 2,5% y/y in August. Investors are perceiving that the environment of lower interest rates would help the industries in the US to increase earnings, and they are adjusting their positions accordingly. The FOMC meeting is scheduled for 19th September, where some increased volatility and market nervousness might be expected. Certainly, the Fed's decision will impact the course of equity markets during the third quarter. After the FOMC meeting its is going to be known if the S&P 500 is heading toward the fresh new ATH.
Bearish reversal?S&P500 is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 5,673.69
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 5,738.69
Why we like it:
There is a resistance level at the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 5,548.54
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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$SPX A +100% winning setup last friday The top of the implied move, based on the previous night's (Thursday) close, was 5635, and that is exactly where we saw resistance. So if you sold 5635/ 5645 bear call spread's with me on Friday then congratulations on the winning trade. And that level was also right in the middle of the down gap that we started the month with. This chart set up is from my video on Thursday before fridays Trading session.
This week, the FOMC decision on Wednesday is pivotal. The market has eagerly awaited this moment all year, expecting a rate cut. However, caution is advised: the market might have already priced in not just one, but several future cuts. Remember, rate cuts often signal economic instability, aimed at mitigating further economic damage and easing pressure on struggling sectors. Stay vigilant; a rate cut isn't always bullish.
Historically, rate cuts can precede market downturns if they indicate deeper economic issues. The market's reaction to Fed's actions this week could be volatile.
SP - Unexpected comebackThe S&P 500 was signaling a potential double top on the weekly timeframe, accompanied by a lower RSI—a highly bearish indicator. From a macroeconomic perspective, recession risks are also mounting.
However, last week saw an unexpected and significant rally, which could potentially negate even the most bearish signals. Overall, I'm still neutral on this one.
Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #5 | SPX Triple Top or Rocket?SPX came roaring back once again after the drop in the first week of September, much like August. The question now is do we get another rejection or a new ATH? I believe we'll find out soon enough as we have one of the most anticipated FOMC decisions in years this week. We've seen some extreme volatility since the beginning of August and I expect it to continue.
If you ask me, this cut will mark the beginning of the US recession that I believe will be much worse than anything we've seen in modern times. Some folks like Jamie Dimon are warning of that possibility as well, but many others are saying the opposite. The market may not tank immediately, if ever. So it's important to stick to the charts during times like these. I'd be cautious this week, but after the dust settles we should have a good idea of where things stand.
I remain in the bearish camp, but I'll be looking for longs if we rip past ATH this week. I'll be quick to stop out in the case we end up rejecting quickly back below for a big fakeout/bull trap. I currently have puts targeting August and April lows first, with a stop above ATH. The back half of September historically has seen the worst returns in each year. The first rate cut and yield curve inversion flip have also historically marked major market tops and recessions. It should be an interesting fall either way, hopefully with a lot of opportunity.
