Bulls and Bears zone for 09-11-2024S&P 500 has posted back to back gains this week since the pullback last week.
Patience is the virtue.
Level to watch : 5501 --- 5499
US500 trade ideas
SPX500 9/11/24πΉ Indices:
ποΈ Outlook
Daly Bias: Bullish
Tokyo: Distribution into accumulation
London: Accumulation heading towards Tokyo highs
New York: We are opening inside the london and tokyo range. We also have CPI in about 2 min so we just wait for that to clear then look for longs.
Keeping an eye on this. ποΈ
SPX - Clear View to All Time High? Not so fastGood morning nerds!
Alright, quick 5 minute update on SPX. There's a motto for the update today and that is "We are not out of the woods yet!"
We've seen a decent move the last two days off the 5400 test last Friday but even though it looks decent, a lot still needs to happen. We're still trading below the 21 day exponential moving average in a month that tends to be bearish or at least corrective. A bullish August into a bearish September seems to rhyme with prior price action from previous years.
Ideally a move back to test that 5400 level would be preferred before a move back to ATH, however if we happen to get back into the distribution zone before retesting 5400, then it's likely we will move to 5800 and probably higher. If we get back to 5322-5400 beforehand, then that 5800 target by EOY becomes more realistic.
You gotta let the market breathe and especially in these months, you need to be a little more conservative with your positioning solely based on the season that we are in.
2yr Yield - FEDFUNDS "Inversion"Over the past ~25yr, we've seen 3 instances of 2yr Yield dropping below the FEDFUNDS rate set by the Federal Reserve.
All 3 instances coincide with Recessions.
On this chart, you see the Yield Differential (Yellow), the SPX (Candles), along with the time of said "Rate Cycle Inversions" (Blue Bar Counts Below Price).
As you can see, all 3 previous instances lead to significant corrections and/or volatility with notable downside.
Not since the 2008 "GFC" have we seen an "inversion" of this magnitude. While correlation is NOT causation...It can be a "warning light" signaling 'Danger Ahead'. It is certainly forewarning us that the probabilities of a recession/down-turn are gaining momentum.
Yes, people have been calling for Doom n Gloom, "Top is In", Recession imminent... for a couple years now. And I am not recommending you sell everything and hide under a rock. What I am recommending however, is that you reduce leverage if you have any, perhaps lock in some profits while you're "on top", and head into the coming days/weeks/months with eyes wide open, alert to potential quick corrections when this wild ride inevitably 'ends'.
Each instance resulted in the "recent lows" being violated. If history rhymes this time, that could mean low 3k's incoming for SPX. COULD. Can your portfolio/strategy/mindset handle that kind of volatility/drawdown? Just some food for thought.
As always, good luck, have fun, and practice solid risk management.
Thank you for your time and consideration.
Sell OpportunityTrading Signal: S&P 500 Index
Action: Sell
Entry Price: 5496.00
Take Profit: 5340.00
Stop Loss: 5565.00
Rationale: The S&P 500 index is currently positioned for a sell trade based on technical analysis indicating potential downside momentum. The entry point is set at 5496.00, with a take-profit target of 5340.00 and a stop-loss at 5565.00 to manage risk.
Disclaimer: Trading signals are for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Traders are advised to conduct their own analysis and consider risk management strategies before executing trades.
SPX500USD 2024/09/11one of the benefits of using Elliot Wave is that it can help traders to understand the psychology and emotions behind market movements. if can halp traders to avoid being influenced by fear and greed and trade with logic and objectivity.
-You can't control the market! But you can control how you respond it
# Planning is the key element of trading! Plan it - Follow it! Trade it!
SPX Buy forecastS&P 500 INDEX New forecastπ¨βπ»π¨βπ»
Note:
Follow proper risk management rules. Never risk more then 2% of your total capital. Money management is the key of success in this business...... Set your own SL & TP.
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ArabianSimple idea to scalp spx short dated contracts.
Scalping through levels using the the help of fast and slow emaβs
SPX Update - Good CPI Scenario worked outHello traders!
Today I update the idea I shared on 13th Aug.
On 13th Aug i highlighted 3 scenarios (1 on tradingview considering bad CPI, 2 on telegram considering mid and good CPIs)
SPX followed the bullish scenario (green) - after CPI Aug release.
Market is really weird, personally I think that Inflation cuts will lead to lower levels if 50bps (because it would mean that US economy is really bleeding, bearish short term) - while would lead to a full bullmarket if 25pbs.
Right now we are holding and hedging position on BTC - which replicates SPX movements.
Buy Spot at 55235$ - Short at 60465$
Waiting for retest + confirmation to close the "wrong" alignment. - Saving our convenient buy (and planning others at lower levels) is our highest priority.
Send a DM for private channel.
How to Optimize Your Investments and Navigate Economic SeasonsThe economy operates in recurring phases of expansion and contraction, known as business cycles or economic cycles. These cycles play a fundamental role in shaping economic activity, employment, and investment decisions. In this article, we will explore the different phases of the business cycle, relate them to the seasons of the year, and discuss how investors and businesses can navigate these cycles effectively.
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A business cycle refers to the fluctuation of economic activity over a period, encompassing periods of growth and decline. It is measured through changes in key economic indicators such as GDP (Gross Domestic Product), employment, consumer spending, and industrial production.
Business cycles typically follow a regular pattern, starting with a phase of expansion, followed by a peak, a period of contraction or recession, and eventually a trough, after which the economy recovers and the cycle begins anew.
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Each phase of the business cycle can be compared to a season of the year, which provides a helpful way to visualize the economic conditions at play:
Spring (Recovery) : After the trough (winter), the economy enters a phase of recovery. Like spring, it's a time of renewal, with growth resuming and businesses beginning to thrive again. Employment rises, consumer confidence improves, and investment increases.
Summer (Expansion) : The economy reaches its full strength during the expansion phase. Just like summer brings warmth and energy, this phase brings rising consumer confidence, employment, and production. Companies grow, and investments yield high returns.
Autumn (Weakening) : As the cycle peaks, the economy starts showing signs of weakening, much like the cooling of autumn. Consumer spending and business growth slow down, and inflation may rise. The peak signals that the economy is at its maximum potential, and a slowdown or contraction may follow.
Winter (Contraction or Recession) : In winter, the economy enters a recession, characterized by declining economic activity, falling production, and rising unemployment. Just as winter halts natureβs growth, a recession slows down economic growth. This is the time when businesses may suffer losses, and consumer confidence weakens.
π΅πΈπΌπΏπ°π²π πΎπ΅ π±πππΈπ½π΄ππ π²ππ²π»π΄π πΎπ½ π³πΈπ΅π΅π΄ππ΄π½π ππ΄π²ππΎππ
Business cycles affect various sectors of the economy differently. Some sectors, like consumer discretionary and industrials, tend to perform well during expansions but suffer during recessions. Others, such as utilities and consumer staples, may be more resilient during downturns, as they provide essential goods and services.
For example:
Technology and Manufacturing : These sectors are highly sensitive to business cycles and tend to flourish during periods of expansion due to increased consumer and business spending.
Healthcare and Utilities : These sectors often remain stable during recessions because demand for healthcare and essential services remains constant.
Crypto Sector:
SP500:
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Investors can use knowledge of the business cycle to adjust their portfolios. During expansion phases, growth stocks and cyclical industries may offer better returns.
Risk-On vs. Risk-Off Investing in Different Business Cycle Phases
During periods of economic expansion (summer), the environment is often referred to as "risk-on." Investors are more willing to take risks because economic growth drives higher returns on riskier assets, such as equities, growth stocks, or emerging markets. As consumer confidence, business spending, and investments increase, the potential rewards from higher-risk investments become more appealing.
Example of risk-on and off of cryptocurrency
Example of risk-on and off of Stock Market
However, during periods of economic contraction or recession (winter), investors typically shift to a "risk-off" strategy. In this phase, they seek to protect their capital by moving away from high-risk assets and toward lower-risk investments like government bonds, blue-chip stocks, or cash. The focus shifts to preserving wealth, and risk-taking is minimized or eliminated.
Investors may use leading and lagging indicators to anticipate where the economy is headed. Leading indicators, such as stock market performance or consumer confidence, tend to signal changes before the economy as a whole moves. Lagging indicators, like unemployment or corporate profits, confirm trends after they occur.
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Governments often intervene to smooth out the extremes of business cycles through fiscal and monetary policy. During recessions, governments may implement stimulus packages, cut taxes, or increase spending to boost demand. Central banks may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing and investment.
Conversely, during periods of rapid expansion and inflationary pressure, governments may raise taxes or cut spending, while central banks might increase interest rates to prevent the economy from overheating.
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Business cycles are a natural part of economic activity, influencing everything from consumer spending to corporate profitability and investment strategies. By understanding the phases of the business cycle (or seasons of the economy) and their impact on various sectors, investors and businesses can better position themselves to navigate economic fluctuations.
Whether the economy is expanding or contracting, being aware of the current phase of the business cycle helps guide decisions, manage risks, and seize opportunities.
SPXBe careful
T= 4600
Be careful
The relative strength index (RSI) is a popular momentum oscillator introduced in 1978.
The RSI provides technical traders with signals about bullish and bearish price momentum, and it is often plotted beneath the graph of an assetβs price.
An asset is usually considered overbought when the RSI is above 70 and oversold when it is below 30.
The RSI line crossing below the overbought line or above oversold line is often seen by traders as a signal to buy or sell.
The RSI works best in trading ranges rather than trending markets.
SPX - Bullish CluesGapped up to start the week and its another gap up today.
We'll obviously have to see this develop to have an idea of whether this bounce will have any strength
But significant pivots often happen with higher time frame gaps such as a weekend gap as we had yesterday.
Notice that the previous two bottoming pivots began with a gap up on the week chart.
This is a little clue that this may be a significant pivot forming.
The bounce has come between the 0.382 and 0.5 retracement.
This is ideal ratio of a bullish recovery.
We'll see how this develops π§.
Not advice
S&P500Hello traders, I think the price has reached an important area and has the ability to fall from this area.
If SP500 allows me to trade according to my trading plan, I will exit the trade with a reward 2 or stop loss.
Have a good week
SPX500,,,H2,,, UPDATEWaiting for breakout
It can be the end of the correction after touching the S/R area. Based on my view, passing out of 5500 can be a green light for new buying positions on stocks.
Although, the chart is very close to an all-time high and in these cases, the market has been fluctuated and the risk is a little high. Nevertheless, I'm going to buy some after a good confirmation of over 5500.
S&P 500 Eyes Uptrend Ahead of CPI Inflation Data ReleaseS&P 500 Technical Analysis:
The price is currently trading above the pivot line of 5453, with potential Uptrend targets of 5491 and 5526.
However, the price remains in a consolidation phase between 5453 and 5491 until a breakout occurs.
A sustained move above 5491 would likely support a rise towards 5526 and potentially 5573. Conversely, maintaining a position below 5453 would increase the likelihood of a move down to 5412.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5460
Resistance Levels: 5490, 5526, 5573
Support Levels: 5436, 5412, 5460
Expected Trading Range: 5453 - 5526
Trend: Uptrend while above 5453
SPX Daily bounce underway?Price abruptly started weekly consolidation after failing the bull flag.
I expect the price to continue bouncing until we find a daily lower high.
For the bounce to start, surpassing the previous day high at 5,487 is a must.
Can we hold the last week low at 5,386? otherwise weekly consolidation will continue.
SPX500 H4 | Overlap resistance at 50% Fibonacci retracementSPX500 is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 5,520.41 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 5,580.00 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 5,388.72 which is a swing-low support that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
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Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
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Losses can exceed deposits.
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240910 Market OutlookThe SP:SPX market turns sluggish with the last day closing price is within the prior day candlestick.
Most indicators show mixed signals on the daily chart:
- Stochastic show strong divergence buy signal;
- RSI is neutral shuttling up and down around the level of 50 points;
- MACD Signal line show death cross of MACD line, while histogram of average size indicate medium falling power and may turn to positive. The latter need more observations.
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Major economic data release include the following statistics this week:
Inflation Rate (CPI) on Wednesday
ECB Rate Decision on Thu
PPI on Thu
Initial Jobless Claims on Thu
Michigan Consumer Sentiment on on Fri.
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Overall state of US economy is moderate that is no strong growth is on horizon, neither have no signs of recession. The 2024 is the year of negative real GDP growth rate in the US. There was a sign of weakening labor market last Friday. SP:SPX is relentless to disturbance and still clinging upward though, showing strong consumer confidence in late 2025.
S&P500 just needs to recover the 1D MA50.The S&P500 recovered yesterday a great deal of Friday's losses but still that wasn't enough to reclaim the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which was lost as the short-term Support level. As you realize, this is the key in order to resume and sustain the uptrend that started after the August 05 rebound near the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
The long-term pattern is a Channel Up and even before that since late 2022 and the bottom of the Inflation Crisis, the index only once corrected below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (the October 27 2023 Low). We mention that because Friday's decline stopped exactly on the 0.5 Fib.
Every rise that followed until the next correction, reached at least +10.50% from the 0.5 Fib. As a result, once the index reclaims the 1D MA50, we will buy and set the next medium-term Target at 5950 (+10.50% from the 0.5 Fib).
Notice also that yesterday's rebound was made exactly on the 1D RSI's Symmetrical Support, a level that initiated the December 19 2022 rebound.
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US500 Is Very Bearish! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for US500.
Time Frame: 10h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 5,477.28.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 5,392.64 level soon.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
