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US500 trade ideas

Bullish continuation?S&P500 (US500) is falling towards the pivot which has been identiifed as ab overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 5,796.40 1st Support: 5,555.95 1st Resistance: 6,091.55 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:US500Long
by ICmarkets
1
SPX500 Detailed Trading Game Plan🎯 Current Market Context: Current Price: 6,000 (Approx.) Trend: Bullish; forming higher highs and higher lows. Key Technical Observations: Strong support and trendline respecting bullish structure. Fibonacci confluence points towards potential upside momentum continuation. Volume Profile indicating key levels at 5,950–6,000. 🚦 Trading Scenarios & Probabilistic Setups: 🟢 Scenario A (High Probability Long Trade ~65%): Entry Zone: Current Levels (6,000–5,950) or retest to 5,863 support. Stop Loss: Below 5,709 (critical structural support). Targets: Primary: 6,262 (100% Fibonacci Extension) Secondary: 6,460 (Key Horizontal Resistance) Risk-to-Reward: Favorable (~1:3) 🟡 Scenario B (Medium Probability Short Trade ~45%): Entry Zone: 6,460–6,500 (strong resistance confluence) Stop Loss: Above 6,600 (clear invalidation) Targets: Primary: 6,100 (structural retest) Secondary: 5,950–5,863 (previous support zone) Risk-to-Reward: Good (~1:2) 🔴 Scenario C (Low Probability but High Reward Long Trade ~35%): Entry Zone: Deep retracement at ~5,408–5,106 (Invalidated if price breaks below 5,107.) Stop Loss: Below 5,107 (firm invalidation) Targets: Primary: 5,950 (key resistance) Extended: 6,460–7,176 (long-term bullish target) Risk-to-Reward: Excellent (~1:5+), but lower likelihood of triggering. 📊 Probability & Risk Management Summary: Scenario Probability Risk Reward Potential A (Long) 65% ✅ Moderate High B (Short) 45% ⚠️ Moderate Moderate C (Long Deep) 35% ❗ Lower Very High ⚙️ Recommended Approach: Primary Strategy: Bullish Continuation (Scenario A) due to current market structure and volume profile confirmation. Secondary Consideration: Watch closely for Short Setup (Scenario B) only upon clear resistance signals. Contingency Setup: Deep retracement (Scenario C) provides excellent value entry if fundamentals trigger a major correction. 🛠 Trade Management Tips: Position Size according to scenario probabilities. Allocate larger sizing to Scenario A, cautious sizing for Scenario B, and small, speculative sizing for Scenario C. Trailing Stops: As price approaches targets, adjust stops to lock profits progressively. 🗓 Timeline & Key Levels for Reference: Immediate actionable trades: Scenario A (Long) setup at current levels. Monitor closely by Mid-August 2025 for Scenario B potential short setup. Watch closely for deep retracement scenario by November 2025 if substantial correction occurs. 🚨 Important Note: Always adjust your trades dynamically based on evolving macroeconomic and geopolitical news. These probabilities are guidelines—not certainties. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for every investor. The information provided is purely for educational and informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice, a recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Always perform your own analysis, consider your financial situation and risk tolerance, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before executing trades. Past performance does not guarantee future results. You alone bear the full responsibility for any investment decision you make. Stay disciplined, trade wisely, and good luck! 🍀📊
FX:SPX500Long
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
S&P500 Bullish breakout support at 6040 The US dollar hit a three-year low and Treasury yields declined after reports suggested Donald Trump may replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell earlier than expected. Investors interpreted this as a sign that rate cuts could come sooner, adding uncertainty to the outlook for the dollar and US bonds—already under pressure from tariff concerns and a growing fiscal deficit. Oil Sector: Shell ruled out a takeover bid for BP, putting to rest speculation of a potential mega-merger between the two energy giants. Despite BP's weak stock performance and activist pressure, Shell appears unwilling to pursue a deal. Corporate Highlights: Nvidia shares hit a record high, once again becoming the world’s most valuable company. Xiaomi launched its first electric SUV, the YU7, aiming to challenge Tesla’s Model Y. Shell denied reports of merger talks with BP, reaffirming its current strategy focus. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 6145 Resistance Level 2: 6178 Resistance Level 3: 6210 Support Level 1: 6040 Support Level 2: 6010 Support Level 3: 5978 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
S&P 500 , UPDATE CHART Uptrend I closed all my open positions when the price was near the All-Time High (ATH) and observed a bearish candle at the end of June 11th. Now, the chart is attempting to break the resistance (S/R) level again. However, I've noticed a divergence between the main chart and the Awesome Oscillator (AO), which leads me to believe we will either see a correction below this level or a pullback after a potential breakout. I am waiting for one of these scenarios to materialize before re-entering with new buying positions.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by pardis
July 9th EU-US tariff deal, what will happen to S&P500?Timeline & Context -The U.S. initially implemented a 10% baseline tariff on most imports (April 5), with potential spike to 50% for EU goods on July 9 unless a deal is struck. -On June 26, Macron warned that if U.S. keeps a 10% tariff, the EU will impose equivalent retaliatory levies. -EU offer of “zero-for-zero” (Macron, von der Leyen) remains on the table, though Washington reportedly resists. How Markets May React If a 10%–10% deal is struck (U.S. keeps 10%, EU matches): -Markets will likely breathe a sigh of relief—clearing headline risk. -Expect a moderate rally, perhaps +1–3% in the S\&P 500, as tariff uncertainty diminishes. -Economists note past discussion: when the EU delay hit May, S\&P futures jumped ~2%. If they agree to Macron’s “zero-for-zero” proposal: -That would be a bullish surprise—tariffs completely lifted. -Market response could range +3–5%, though EU has indicated U.S. pushback on full zero­zero . -Analysts warn clarity isn’t always calm: the S\&P is already priced above fundamentals—choppy reactions still possible . If the pause lapses with no EU agreement: -U.S. could enforce 50% tariffs; EU likely retaliates. -Risks: recession fears in EU, U.S. inflation spike so stocks will likely fall. -Bank strategists forecast flat S\&P (5,900), but warn of volatility range 5,600–6,000 based on trade policy surprises. -Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Stock prices, valuations, and performance metrics are subject to change and may be outdated. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. The information presented may contain inaccuracies and should not be solely relied upon for financial decisions. I am not personally liable for your own losses, this is not financial advise.
VANTAGE:SP500
by bossout10
1
Stock Markets Rebound Following Trump’s Ceasefire AnnouncementStock Markets Rebound Following Trump’s Ceasefire Announcement Last night, U.S. President Donald Trump made a social media post announcing a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel. According to his own words, the ceasefire is set to last “forever.” This announcement triggered a sharp bullish impulse (indicated by the blue arrow) on the S&P 500 index chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), pushing the price to a new high above the 6074 level. Just yesterday, traders feared that the United States could be drawn into yet another costly war following bomber strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. However, today the stock markets are recovering, signalling growing optimism and a waning of fears over a major escalation of the conflict. Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart When analysing the S&P 500 index chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) seven days ago, we identified an ascending channel. The angle of the trend remains relevant, while the width of the channel has expanded due to the downward movement caused by tensions in the Middle East. Notably: → the price marked the lower boundary of the channel as well as the internal lines (shown by black dots) dividing the channel into quarters; → the latest bullish impulse suggests that the upward trend is resuming after breaking out of the correction phase (indicated by red lines). It is possible that in the near future, the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) could reach the median line of the channel. There, the price may consolidate, reflecting a balance between buyers and sellers—particularly if the peace in the Middle East proves to be lasting. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXM
by FXOpen
1
Is Now a Good Time to Invest in the S&P 500? Is Now a Good Time to Invest in the S&P 500? The chart shows the S&P 500 in a long-term upward trend, with clear channels indicating zones from "extremely cheap" (bottom green line) to "extremely expensive" (top red line). Currently, the index is trading near the upper part of the channel, in the "expensive" to "extremely expensive" area. What Does This Mean for Investors? The current price level suggests the S&P 500 is expensive compared to its historical trend, increasing the risk of a short-term correction. Historically, buying near the top of such channels has offered less margin of safety and a higher probability of pullbacks in the following months. Investment idea It is a good time to start investing gradually (using a dollar-cost averaging strategy, investing a fixed amount each month) rather than making a lump-sum, “all-in” investment with your savings. This approach allows you to benefit from long-term market growth while reducing the risk of entering at a market peak. The risks currently outweigh the potential short-term gains, and we could see better prices in the coming months. In summary: Now is not the time to go all-in on the S&P 500. Gradually investing each month is a sensible approach, given the elevated risk of a correction and the possibility of better entry points ahead.
SP:SPX
by TopChartPatterns
SPX short analysisLike I wrote in my EUR/USD analysis you never know what could happened. USA bombed Iran! This could have huge impact on the US market next week. My guess is temporarily short... At least to close this gap in spot price of SPX. Since we're still in bearish market, until we see new highs, and this could be catalyst for another sell off. So the jump could be even bigger and we could see new ATH this year. For now, I'm seeking a position to short tomorrow after market is open. This is my entry mark. There will be higher volatility. However, I expect US market to open in the red, close the gap and to sell off again. We shall see! Trade safe this one :)
SP:SPXShort
by justcoinme
S&P 500 (SPX) 1M next week?The S&P 500 is pulling back from a key resistance after completing a bearish AB=CD pattern on the monthly chart. Price action suggests a potential correction toward the 4662–4700 zone, aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which may serve as a key area for bullish reaccumulation. Momentum indicators show bearish divergence, hinting at a cooling rally. Fundamentally, the index remains supported by strong earnings in tech and AI sectors, but risks persist from elevated interest rates, sticky inflation, and potential Fed policy shifts. A pullback into the 4662–4700 zone may offer a medium-term setup for continuation toward 5198 and potentially 5338. A breakdown below 4662 would invalidate the bullish structure and shift focus to lower Fibonacci levels.
VANTAGE:SP500
by TotoshkaTrades
2
Risk and Probability in Trading — Why Risk Assessment MattersRisk and Probability in Trading — Why Risk Assessment Matters More Than Chasing the “Holy Grail” In trading, most participants and analysts are focused on finding the so-called “Holy Grail” — the perfect entry point where the price moves in the desired direction and yields profit. However, few actually assess the risks involved, as if success is possible without factoring them in. Market reviews are often filled with levels, forecasts, and price directions, but rarely include probability estimates or potential losses. In my view, the real Holy Grail isn't a guaranteed profitable entry, but a scenario where the market offers a position with minimal risk relative to historical context. To identify such setups, we need a risk scale based on historical data — how favorable the current risk-to-reward ratio is compared to the past. It’s also crucial to understand that no one can predict price direction with certainty. The key to opening a position is not hope, but evaluating all possible scenarios — upward, downward, or sideways — and knowing the outcome in each case. Risk management is more than just placing a stop-loss; it’s a structured approach that should be central to any trading strategy. What Are Minimal Risks? “Minimal risk” is a relative concept — it only makes sense when measured against a defined scale. Building such a scale requires historical statistics: what were the maximum and minimum losses and profits for similar positions in the past? Profit-to-Loss Ratio The idea behind the search for the “Holy Grail” is to find moments when the market offers the best possible profit-to-risk ratio. For example, if the current ratio is 10, and historically it has ranged from 0 (low risk) to 100 (high risk), then 10 may be a good entry point. If the ratio approaches 80–90, it signals that the position is extremely risky. Why Are Probability and Risk Assessment Important? Market reviews often talk about resistance levels, volatility, and price direction — but rarely address the risks of different scenarios. No expert can predict market movements with certainty — if they could, they’d be billionaires. Opening positions without accounting for risks and scenario probabilities is extremely dangerous. How to Factor in Risks When Entering a Position The key question is: what will the profit-to-loss ratio be after entering a position, depending on whether the price goes up, down, or stays flat? It’s important to understand the consequences of each case and make decisions based on risk assessment. Risk Management Must Account for the Inability to React Instantly Conventional tools like stop-losses and limit orders often fail to protect capital effectively during sudden price spikes. These tools are particularly vulnerable when market makers or high-frequency algorithms trigger stop levels en masse. This highlights the need for more resilient risk management instruments — ones that can respond to volatility instantly and automatically. Options are one such tool, capable of limiting losses regardless of market dynamics. Without robust risk management, long-term profitability becomes statistically unlikely. Sooner or later, the market will present a scenario that can wipe out your capital — unless you’re properly protected. Important note: this is not an endorsement of options or any specific broker. It’s simply a conclusion based on the logic of building effective capital protection. If a broker only provides access to linear instruments (futures, spot, stocks) without the ability to hedge, it will inevitably lead to capital erosion — even for systematic traders. And if this article gets more than 100 rockets, I’ll continue sharing specific examples of low-risk trading assessments.
SP:SPX
by wien6000796
1
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 27, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the current trading week, the S&P 500 Index has predominantly demonstrated an upward trajectory, surpassing the Mean Resistance level of 6046, the Outer Index Rally target of 6073, and the critical Key Resistance threshold of 6150. Currently, the index is exhibiting a bullish trend, indicating potential movement towards the Outer Index Rally objective of 6235. However, it is essential to note that there is a substantial probability that prices may retract from their current levels to test the Mean Support at 6136 before experiencing a resurgence.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
S&P 500 hits fresh records: Levels to watchBreaking its February peak, the S&P 500 has joined the Nasdaq 100 in hitting a new record high this week. The latest gains came on the back of a sharp de-escalation in the Middle East and mounting pressure on the Fed to cut rates. They question is whether it will kick on from here or we go back lower given that trade uncertainty is still unresolved. Indeed, there’s the upcoming 9 July deadline, when the current reciprocal tariff truce is due to expire. Unless it’s extended—or replaced by something more concrete—we could be in for another wave of trade tensions. It is also worth remembering the ever-looming US fiscal showdown. Trump’s much-touted spending bill—nicknamed the “One Big Beautiful Bill”—is targeting a Senate vote by the 4th of July. If passed, it could reignite concerns about ballooning deficits and inflationary pressure. Anyway, from a purely technical analysis point of view, the path of least resistance continues to remain to the upside. Thus, we will concentrate on dip buying strategy than looking for a potential top - until markets make lower lows and lower highs again. With that in mind, some of the key support levels to watch include the following: 6069 - the mid-June high, which may now turn into support on a potential re-test from above 6000 - this marks the launch pad of the latest rally and marks the 21-day exponential average 5908 - this week's low, now the line in the sand. It wouldn’t make sense for the market to go below this level if the trend is still bullish. Meanwhile, on the upside: 6169 is the first target, marking the 161.8% Fib extension of the most recent downswing 6200 is the next logical upside target given that this is the next round handle above February’s peak of 6148 By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by FOREXcom