SPX Might Turn DownwardsSince the S&P500 is showing bearish divergences, we expect a return to the thin structures on the downside. A first potential TP is located at 5,530.50 points and a second TP results from the still open gap (TP @ 5,464.50).
US500 trade ideas
Long trade
Trade Details:
Date: Tuesday, 3rd September 2024
Pair: SPX/USD
Time: 3:45 PM during the LND to NY Session
Trade Type: Buyside trade
Entry Level: 5563.6
Profit Level: 5614.9 (0.92%)
Stop Level: 5558.7 (0.09%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 10.47
US500 Analysis by Mallicast TeamAfter the release of the PMI data, the US500 index experienced a downward trend on the 4-hour time frame. The analytical team at Mallicast has identified this bearish movement considering the economic data and market reactions. Based on technical analysis and observed patterns, it is anticipated that after this downward move, the US500 index may potentially resume its upward trend. This potential rebound depends on various factors, including changes in economic conditions, fiscal policies, and market sentiment. It is crucial for investors and traders to closely monitor the upcoming developments to capitalize on new market opportunities.
S&P500This is the demand zone where I expect the price to hit the ceiling. After it touches this area and confirms, I will enter.
Short trade
Trade Details:
Date: Tuesday, 2nd September 2024
Time: 00:00 AM during the NY to Tokyo Session AM
Pair: SPX/USD
Trade Type: Sellside trade idea
Time Frame: (15min TF)
Entry Level: 5644.7
Profit Level: 5594.8 (a 0.88%)
Stop Level: 5653.3 (a 0.15%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 2.4
The eye of Sauron, or just another level to be broken?We've seen this kind of setup before. Usually these can be rather good topping patterns. Should the US500 fail to break above the black line indicated and go on to print a new all-time high, we would target the black trend line that coincides with the purple support/resistance level. Wait and see... but our call is that we get a proper correction here.
US500 SHORT US100 SHORTUS500
SHORT
PLEASE DON’T BE GREEDY
ENTRY POINT : yellow point
TP : blue lines
SL :
below red line for LONG POSITION
above red Line for SHORT POSITION
INSTRUCTIONS:
FOR risk and money management:
5% of your wallet for LEV X ≤20
And
3% of your wallet for LEV X ≥ 20
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PLEASE DON’T BE GREEDY
SPX Is Bearish! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for SPX.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 5,647.50.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 5,385.34.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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US indeces pre market TuesdayHere's a breakdown of why the S&P 500 might drop to the next green zone based on the technical analysis depicted in the chart:
1. Resistance Zone (Upper Red Box)
The chart highlights a resistance zone near the top, marked by a red box. This zone represents a price level where the S&P 500 has struggled to move higher and has reversed several times in the past.
The price has recently touched this resistance zone and failed to break through it, indicating that selling pressure is stronger at this level.
2. Support Zone (Lower Green Box)
The green box at the bottom represents a support zone, which is a price level where the index has previously found buying interest and reversed upward.
The chart suggests that the price could potentially drop back to this support zone if the current downtrend continues.
3. Recent Price Action
The price action within the last few candlesticks shows a downward movement after touching the resistance zone, which is depicted by the downward arrow.
This suggests that sellers have taken control, and the price is likely to continue moving lower.
4. Breakdown of Support Levels
The price appears to be breaking down through minor support levels (smaller green zones within the red box), which could indicate that the market is losing bullish momentum and could head towards the lower support zone.
5. Trading Setup
The chart suggests a short (sell) trade setup, where the expected movement is for the price to drop towards the lower green zone.
The green arrow indicates the anticipated direction of the price movement, while the red and green shaded areas likely represent the stop-loss and take-profit levels, respectively.
Conclusion
Based on the chart's technical analysis, the S&P 500 is expected to decline to the next green support zone due to the strong resistance at the current level, recent bearish price action, and the potential breakdown of intermediate support levels. If the price reaches the lower green zone, it might find support and possibly reverse, but until then, the outlook is bearish.
SPXPair : SPX500 Index
Description :
Double Top Pattern in Long Time Frame
RSI - Divergence
Resistance Level
Rising Wedge as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves
S&P500 The Bull Cycle is still far from over!Six months ago while the market was undecided about whether or not the S&P500 (SPX) rally would continue, we presented a very useful multi-year chart on the 1M time-frame (February 27, see chart below), where we called for an extension of the uptrend, claiming confidently that the 'Bull Cycle is far from over':
As you can see those who bought without fear have enjoyed so far more than +15% gains. What's even more impressive is the massive bullish reversal of the August candle, that managed to close the month in green, despite the early aggressive sell-off.
This is a strong sign that the rally is far from over, but it's not the only one. The key here, and constitutes our main modification relative to the chart 6 months ago, is that the most accurate sell signal on a cyclical basis has been historically given after the 1M RSI breaks above the 70.00 overbought barrier and posts Lower Highs.
This signal has had 100% accuracy in the past 10 years, effectively projecting the 2015, 2018 and 2022 corrections. The 1M RSI also has a Channel Down Resistance to consider but the Lower Highs signal should be top priority for investors to start selling.
As a result, we expect the index to surpass the 6000 mark and even approach 6500, before we consider a cyclical selling sequence again.
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S&P 500 IndexTrading Signal: S&P 500 Index
Action: Sell
Entry Price: 5651.00
Take Profit: 5583.00
Stop Loss: 5698.00
Rationale: The S&P 500 index is currently positioned for a sell trade based on technical analysis indicating potential downside momentum. The entry point is set at 5651.00, with a take-profit target of 5583.00 and a stop-loss at 5698.00 to manage risk.
Disclaimer: Trading signals are for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Traders are advised to conduct their own analysis and consider risk management strategies before executing trades.
SPX: Sept, week 1 inclined turn n burnScenario Analysis:
market has potential to retrace back to 5620 area = (-0.52%) retracement,
Market has potential to continue inclinging around 0.64% @5670 (just under last month high) /5680 area where bulls will see new high, then a retracement maybe
Retracement expected to be 35% - 40% support area @5637.43, and 5629.71
May see stagflation (W) price-action potential opportunity
(Week 2 of sep)
may see close to 2.00% Incline or decline after retracement (expect incline)
Objective & Targets:
follow incline by 0.64% prepare for possible retracement thereafter.
Support & Resistance Levels:
Support: 5629.61, 5648.39, 5616.24
Resistance: 5668.64, 5658.15, 5683.48
US500 | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators on Trade Set Up in General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Active Sessions on Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
* Asian(Ranging) - London(Upwards) - NYC(Downwards)
* Weekend Crypto Session
Trend | Time Frame Conductive | Daily Time Frame
- General Trend
- Measurement on Session
* Support & Resistance
* Trade Area | Focus & Motion Ahead
# Position & Risk Reward | 1 Hour Time Frame
- Measurement on Session
* Retracement | 0.5 & 0.618
* Extension | 0.88 & 1
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management on Demand;
Overall Consensus | Buy
Weekly Analysis for SPX NQ VX RTY YM BTCMy general thoughts on the market for the week ahead. We have a lot of consolidation and critical areas being tested right now, which leads me to believe there will be a big move once it breaks. The question right now on everyone's mind is do we double top or make a new ATH. I'm in the double top camp for now, but that doesn't mean it's all over for bears if we have one rally to a new ATH for a couple of weeks. There's no reason to think it's impossible to keep rallying from here, I just think it is unlikely. We'll find out soon enough.
Don't forget about this week's economic data releases and earnings reports. It's a short week, but I see a lot of potential opportunity and there are plenty of catalysts for market reactions.
Stock feedback loopStock market is a adaptive system or a stock, with feedback loops (for inflow, outflow function). Where nobody knows the outcome or future, but feedbacks (corrections or resistance) gives tells (makes inflows or outflows). Without a common leader.
Economists think in models (price is the result of supply-demand, or inflow-outflow) that helps to explain system behavior (short term moves), but models are just ideas to explain complex world (models work until they dont). System thinkers study the stock not aggregate behavior .
Looking at markets trough perspective of "eco system" helps better understand the drivers or moving forces?
SELL S&P500Sell off a higher time frame rejection. Price has failed multiple times to breakthrough this area.
target is 1:2 to play it safe but this has the potential to break through on the downside with NFP and unemployment news expected this week
Long Position to 6000 ? If price hold above the previous ATH could we see a move upto the 6000 range possibly after rate cuts in September 🤔
SPX Buy forecastS&P 500 Index New forecast👨💻👨💻
Note:
Follow proper risk management rules. Never risk more then 2% of your total capital. Money management is the key of success in this business........ Set your own SL & TP.
S&P 500 Coiled Beneath Key HighsAfter a wild and volatile summer, the S&P 500 finds itself in a tight range, coiled beneath all-time highs as we head into September—a month historically known for its weakness. The S&P 500’s recent behaviour suggests a potential breakout, but the question remains: which direction will it take?
A Roller-Coaster Summer
The S&P 500 hit new all-time highs in mid-July, fuelled by optimism surrounding strong corporate earnings and hopes for a resilient US economy. However, this euphoria was quickly followed by a near 10% correction in less than a month, rattling investor confidence. The sharp sell-off was a stark reminder of the market's inherent volatility, driven by concerns over interest rate hikes, geopolitical tensions, and the ever-present threat of inflation.
Yet, as quickly as the market fell, buyers swooped in, leading to a swift V-shaped recovery. This rapid rebound brought the S&P 500 back towards its all-time highs, demonstrating the market’s resilience and the underlying strength of the current bull market. But, over the past two weeks, the S&P 500’s price action has been characterised by a tight range, forming the narrowest weekly range in over seven weeks for two consecutive weeks. This price compression has set the stage for what could be a significant move.
S&P 500 Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
The Nature of Price Compression
Price volatility is often cyclical, and after a high-volatility summer marked by dramatic swings, the S&P 500 is experiencing a period of low-volatility price compression. This kind of behaviour—coiling within a narrow range—typically precedes a significant breakout, as the market builds up energy before releasing it in one direction or the other. The question is whether the breakout will align with the longer-term bullish trend or if we will see a reversal.
The S&P 500’s dominant trend is undoubtedly bullish with the 50-day moving average comfortably above the 200-day moving average, indicating strong underlying momentum. Historically, price compression of this nature tends to resolve in the direction of the prevailing trend, which in this case, points to a bullish breakout. However, the market’s memory of the sharp sell-off that occurred at the July highs could act as a psychological barrier, creating a potential battleground for bulls and bears around these levels.
Seasonality: A Double-Edged Sword
While the technical setup may appear bullish, it's crucial to consider the impact of seasonality. Historically, September has been the weakest month for the S&P 500, with the index falling by an average of 0.6% since 1945, according to data from CFRA. This seasonal weakness could be a headwind for the market, as investors often become more risk-averse after the summer and ahead of the final quarter of the year.
On the other hand, November and December are typically strong months for the S&P 500, buoyed by the holiday season and year-end portfolio adjustments by institutional investors. If the market can navigate the choppy waters of September without a significant breakdown, the seasonal tailwinds in the final months of the year could provide the impetus needed to push the S&P 500 to new highs.
Average S&P 500 Performance by Month
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
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S&P 500 INDEX BUY SIGNAL RECTANGLE PATTERNHere on S&P 500 there is a rectangle formed and if it break line 5651.31 there is a high chance of moving up and going for LONG and targeting profit should 5743.19 level. Use money management
September – The Worst Month for the S&P 500September – The Worst Month for the S&P 500
August was a turbulent month for the US stock market. On the 5th, the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) experienced its largest daily drop since 2022, falling by 3%. However, the index ended August up by 3.7% and is now just 0.3% below its all-time high of around 5672 set in July.
What can we expect in September? Historically, it is the worst month for the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen). Statistics show that the index has typically declined by an average of 1.1% in September.
The month starts with a long weekend due to Labour Day in the US, but volatility is likely to increase as traders return from their holidays.
Technical analysis of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows:
→ The price is moving within an ascending channel (shown in blue), having tested the lower boundary of the channel on 5 August before returning to the upper half of the channel with a wide candle on 15 August (shown by the arrow).
→ The level of 5568, which showed signs of resistance at the end of July and early August, was broken to the upside on the 19th. This level, now "reinforced" by the median line of the channel, could serve as a base for bulls trying to set a new all-time high. If such an attempt occurs, it is possible that the price will reach the upper boundary of the channel, where resistance is expected.
→ The bears' attempt to lower the price on 28 August (second arrow) failed, further indicating that the bullish side has the upper hand.
Thus, the start of the month looks promising, but the fundamental backdrop will be crucial.
The key event for September is the Fed meeting on the 18th, where a 0.25% rate cut is anticipated – currently, the rate stands at a 23-year high of 5.5%. However, market sentiment may shift depending on the employment report for August, scheduled for release on 6 September.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
