S&P 500 HEAD AND SHOULDER BUY ANALYSISHere on S&P 500 price has formed a head and shoulder round 5609.44 and is likely to continue buying so going for LONG is needed and targeting profit should be around 5682.41 . Use money management
US500 trade ideas
Yield curve Before Hyperinflation (QE US BONDS) BTC & SPY
The global bond market is what dictates the liquidity to stocks, its what dictates the world its what starts wars and its what ends wars.
Currently I see many post focused on "recession" "market crash" when the giant elephant in the room is the global bond market and the US reserve dollar that is currently in danger.
Why must we start foreign sanctions and battles with a country beginning with R? its very simple. There's a fight for the dollars survival. Covid 19 pushed the FRED past the point of no return and there is no going back to the structured system that was already falling apart.
Treasury Interest is now getting at dangerous levels of unpayable amounts, Government Debt is rising by the trillions in a parabolic move that is getting steeper by the month.
What has to happen?
The FRED will force the US power to globally cut rates in all major economies while the FRED also has to start cutting back to zero while halting the fall of the DXY
(forcing military action on other countries who do not cut rates and hinder their local currency)
The last time in history something like this has happened was during the 1927-1931 period of discount rate blunders.
US CPI is indicating we have entered a new stage of no turning back and this is the danger of printing money, QE will be forced in the nature of Yield Curve Control and the excess liquidity and currency will debase the markets violently in an upward notion, following this people will end up panicking being on the sidelines entering the market with heavy leverage and borrowed funds at lower rates.
This is a type of scenario that would collapse Rome, Would end the Soviet Union. Expect dangerous policies, socialist developments, anti ownership, sparks of new wars.
Only when you price this event in something like Bitcoin you can then re evaluate how much money will have to be printed to keep up this momentum without causing a depression with unemployment rates sky rocking and the Government defaulting on the debt.
SNP500 / SPX🔍 SPX/USDT Analysis: Daily Timeframe 📉
SELL IT!
The SPX chart on a daily timeframe highlights significant upcoming dates where price movements may present trading opportunities. These should be analyzed in conjunction with higher timeframes for a comprehensive market view.
• September 3, 2024 - Red Line: This date marks a potential local peak. Traders might consider this as a moment to take profits or reduce exposure, as the price could encounter resistance or a downturn.
• December 6, 2024 - Red Line: This date is another potential local peak, signaling a possible moment to exit positions before a downturn.
When working with this daily timeframe, remember to evaluate these movements within the context of the broader market trend, considering higher timeframes for a more global perspective.
Note: The exact timing of these phases can vary by +/- a few days. All times are based on UTC-7 (Los Angeles).
S&P vs Bitcoin. So this is how it happens.Daily chart of the ratio between %SPX index and BITSTAMP:BTCUSD , bitcoins price.
Lines: 3 Moving Averages: 200 day SMA, 50 day SMA and 20 day SMA
All 3 MA's intersect on today's candle.
If its random, how rare is that?
If its not random, what does it mean?
Previous cases are marked with a white pointing finger.
(tnx to @warrenbuffettdemicasa and 'stocks and indexs chat" for comments)
SPX MONTHLY CHARTSPX index seems to be running on 5th wave of cycle degree. After it goes up for sometime 5th wave will be completed and it will make a-b-c correction afterwards. For now it seems to create new high.
S&P500 Consolidation Phase Towards The UptrendHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring US500 for a buying opportunity around 5540 zone, SPX is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 5540 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
My Stock Market Crash FantasyOn the left we see 29 trading days from peak. On the right we see 29 trading days from peak before the historical stock market crash of 1987.
It is a stock market crash fantasy because huge stock market crashes are very rare events that are most likely not to occur.
That being said, IF a crash is going to occur it would more than likely *only* start very soon after an extreme rally up.
Secondly, if it is going to occur in a manner similar to the 1987 and 1929 crashes, then there is only a short window of opportunity for it to occur. The time window of 29 days to final peak is now in alignment from 1929, 1987 and 2024.
Will it occur? It probably will not occur if we start to rally from this point forward. But if we start right NOW to get some hard down days and stronger lower low and lower high days going into the first week of September, then maybe just maybe the stock market crash fantasy won't be a fantasy anymore.
Some technical notes:
we continue to have many and plenty of Carl V bearish technical patterns on major indices that points to a test of the August 5 lows. A move down to those lows into the the first week of September would be a very bearish sign for markets, but it is unknown whether such a big decline could happen that fast again.
SP500 Will Go Down! Sell!
Take a look at our analysis for SP500.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 5,607.46.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 5,575.58 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
S&P500 Corrction Downwards#trading_idea #US500 💡
#US500 - Bearish Momentum
🕯Market Analysis Overview:
U.S. Stocks: This week, the rally in U.S. stocks faces a critical test as Nvidia is set to release its earnings report. Nvidia's stock has surged 150% year-to-date, significantly boosting the S&P 500.
Nvidia's Importance: Nvidia has played a major role in driving the S&P 500, which is now approaching record highs again. The company's performance has contributed a substantial portion of the index's gains this year.
Market Expectations: Nvidia's future guidance on AI investments could have a significant impact on market sentiment.
Risk and Volatility: September is historically a volatile month for the S&P 500. Nvidia's results could either support the ongoing rally or heighten investor concerns.
On the 4-hour chart, the price is testing the middle Bollinger Band. A potential ABCD pattern could complete to the downside. The RSI has dropped below the 50 line. If the downward movement continues, the next target is the lower Bollinger Band at the support level of 5578.
Possible Scenarios
🔽If the price break down the middle line of the Bollinger the further decline to the support 5600 and lower is possible.
🔼Otherwise, a return to the resistance at 5630 is likely.
😎 Choose "👍" if you expect a price hike and "👎" if you expect a decline.
EWTSU SP500 H1 minuscole 5 running
EWTSU SP500 H1 minuscole 5 running
ending diagonal of submicro (5)
monitor to confirm submiuette III - alternative c
S&P500 Prediction: is it forming double top??Is S&P500 forming Double top?
A low-volume rise is a telltale sign.
Deep valley below the double top meets criteria.
Beware of large red candles, as they signal confirmation of the reversal.
What's your opinion about it?
SPX TOP History Repeats Itself AgainHello everyone,
We may be entering a very powerful recession. We get a good crash about every 100 years and history is repeating itself again. We went into the great depression during the 1929s and the stock market did not reach it's highs again for the next 37 years. We find ourselves in the same situations eerily similar to 1929.
Everything 4 year cycle.NASDAQ, SPX, BTC, SOL, GOLD, on 4 year cycle with ISM cycle below.
Inspired by RaoulGMI's cycles. Looks quite interesting I think. Next top in 2025?
Trading Idea of week 35 - S&P500 - TradingMasteryHubWelcome to the TradingMasteryHub Trading Ideas!
Are you ready to gear up for the upcoming week? Join us as we dive into a detailed analysis to uncover top trading opportunities that could potentially boost your trading account. We’ll break down our strategy, defining precise Entries, managing Risk, and pinpointing the optimal Exit zones—steps that can transform your trading performance. Whether you’re just starting out or looking to fine-tune your approach, these insights are crafted to help you on your path to mastering the markets.
S&P 500 Poised to Break New All-Time Highs!
The S&P 500 has climbed back above its long-term uptrend (green trend line) that’s been in play since early November 2023. The current all-time high (ATH) of 5,680.4, set on July 16th, also marked the beginning of a mid-term downtrend (red trend line). However, two weeks ago, we witnessed a significant breakout from this downtrend, accompanied by high volume, which also reestablished the long-term uptrend. The last four trading days have been range-bound between key support (green) and resistance (blue) zones, with a stable volume profile (orange box) in between.
If the price manages to break through the key resistance zone (blue), new ATHs are highly likely. This presents a clear and compelling trading opportunity that we’re excited to share with you.
How to Turn This into a 5-Star Setup!
Before we rush into a trade, excited by the prospect of bullish momentum, it’s crucial to do our homework. This means waiting for multiple confirmations before entering the trade:
1. The Trend is Your Friend: The chart shows different trends depending on the time frame. We’re trading on a 15-minute chart, where the uptrend is clear. But we also need to confirm that the higher time frame (above our execution trend) is in an uptrend and not in a consolidation phase following a longer-term downtrend.
- Box Checked: We saw a breakout from the mid-term downtrend on August 15th with high volume (RVOL > 3) and a 15-minute close above the last higher low of that downtrend on August 19th, also with high volume.
2. We Need New Bullish Momentum: To hit new ATHs, we require strong buying pressure. This could come from a catalyst like favorable news (e.g., interest rate cuts by the Fed) or a technical breakout above the key resistance zone (blue).
- Box Checked: We’ll look for a 15-minute close above the blue zone, RVOL > 3 at the breakout, and ideally, a U.S. market opening above the previous day’s Volume Profile high to confirm a trending day.
- Plus: Price must be above both the session VWAP and 2-day VWAP.
- Bonus: An additional catalyst in the form of a market-moving news event.
3. We Need Patience: Only when all the above criteria are met should we enter the trade.
- Entry: After a 15-minute candle closes above the blue zone, but only if the risk/reward ratio is >1.3 up to Target 1.
- Risk Management: Stop Loss (SL) at 5,624.7, just below Friday’s Pivot R1 minus 6 points for market noise. Take Profit (TP) Target 1 is set at 5,678, just below Pivot R2 (also the 1.618 Fib Extension), where we’ll scale out 50% of the position and move the SL to the entry level, making the trade risk-free.
- Profit Target 2 (50%): This will likely be around 5,730, just below the 2.618 Fib Extension. If we don’t see new ATHs, TP Target 2 will be triggered by a close below the highest green 15-minute candle.
4. We Need Discipline: Trading only when all conditions are met will give us an edge in the long run.
- Discipline: Sticking to your rules is crucial for consistent trading. Without discipline, you lose the ability to analyze and refine your edge, leaving you at the mercy of emotional decisions.
5. We Need to Review Our Trades: Keeping a Trading Journal is essential for learning from both mistakes and successes. We’ll provide another e-Learning session focused on this vital topic. A simple journal can significantly improve your trading.
Always Have a Plan B!
Sometimes Plan A doesn’t play out. That’s why it’s important to have a Plan B—a slightly less optimal, but still viable, 4-star setup.
In this case, if the breakout above the blue zone doesn’t occur and the market reverses towards the green zone, we might consider a short trade instead. But again, we need a separate checklist:
1. Range Trades Need a History: The market must test key zones (green and blue) more than twice each to confirm a range.
- Confirmation: More than two touches of the green and red zones have already occurred.
2. We Need Bearish Momentum: A bearish environment is necessary for a return to the range. This could be triggered by a negative catalyst (e.g., lower unemployment rates) or a breakdown below VWAP.
- Box Checked: We need a 15-minute candle close below both session VWAP and 2-day VWAP, RVOL > 3, and the market ranging within the Volume Profile.
3. We Need Patience: Enter the trade only when all conditions are met.
- Entry: After a 15-minute candle closes below both VWAPs, with a risk/reward ratio >1.7 up to TP Target 1.
- Risk Management: SL at 5,647, just above Friday’s Pivot R1 plus 6 points for noise. TP Target 1 at 5,602, just above Pivot P (0.382 Fib retracement), where we’ll close 100% of the position.
4. We Need Discipline: As always, sticking to the plan is key.
5. We Need to Review Our Trades: Keeping track of your trades ensures you learn and improve over time.
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Conclusion and Recommendation
By focusing on clear trends, momentum, and discipline, you can capitalize on high-probability trading setups like the ones we’ve outlined here. However, it's crucial to understand that not every 5-star setup will be a winner. Even the most promising setups don’t guarantee success every time. The true key to long-term profitability lies in consistently following a well-defined strategy and maintaining a favorable risk/reward ratio. Over time, this disciplined approach can lead to steady profits, helping you grow your trading account while minimizing losses.
Having a solid Plan B also keeps you prepared for whatever the market throws your way. With these strategies, you’re not just following the market—you’re mastering it.
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What You’ll Learn:
- In-depth market analysis
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TradingMasteryHub
Approching the doji how to spot based on declining volatilityThere is a time in everyone's life when the fulcrum is reached. I agree with those who say it is validated with any close below 5650. We are going to re-test the supports now. I am 3x leveraged on a retaacement, utilizing 10% of the bond portfolio , for hedge on my equities
SP500 Analysis 8-26Price came back to Thursday's high to take out buyers and fall during NY session.
Sell side liquidity around 5587 and lower. We could see price push lower. Have not
taken out previous day lows. Waiting for price to rally back and find rejection around 5631 or 5640 . I took some profits on the sell.
Good Luck
Risk Management #1
Check my profile for more updates.
US500 SELLThe market is currently in a weekly zone based on market current market. The market is currently forming a reversal chart pattern both on Daily and 4HR TF. We could see further downtrend should the current weely level hold.
Disclaimer:
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is solely intended for educational and informational purposes only.The analysis provided is based on my own view of the market. Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account.
High-Risk Warning
Trading in foreign exchange on margin entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. In this case, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and in your favor.
Weekly outlook August 26-30 $SPYAMEX:SPY has been pricing in Fed cuts since the yen-dollar unwind in my opinion. I think we consolidate here for at least a few more days until moving either higher or lower (depending on Fridays PCE numbers). Trend is still bullish however, FED has signaled their move. Whether its 50 BPS or 25, the market is uncertain
SPX1. Rising wedge on SPX.
2. Trap door got shut badly on bulls on NY open expecting ATH.
3. This was a nasty bull trap for bulls who were expecting a blow off top.
4. I am calling the top for US Stocks here.
5.Expect a bottom at 3300-3400 in 18 months time.
Wave structure analysis of SP500 index on daily time frameDay swing is bearish => Current is pullback.
The current price is in the Supply zone of the daily frame. So we can look for a selling opportunity if the CHoCH reversal signal is given on the time frame less than 15 minutes.
Either Stock or GoldIn every analysis I have done over the years, I have said that I hold either gold or equities. I have never been in cash other than equities. These charts explain why.
From 1884 to 1970, you could buy 1 SP500 share with an average of 0.74 gold or $14.75. So there is not much point in choosing between gold and the dollar during this period because the Bretton Woods system is still in place. But the real problem starts after 1970. After the Bretton Woods system was abolished, you can now buy 1 SP500 share with an average of 2 gold coins. Yes, the stock is rising relative to gold, but it is not in a continuous upward trend, so you can buy SP500 shares with 2 gold in 1972 or 2020. But in dollar terms, things are not so good. In 1970 you could buy SP500 for $100 and in 2020 you can buy SP500 for $3000.
Therefore, when you sell a share, going for gold instead of cash may put you at a speculative loss in the short term, but in the long term you are always on the winning side.
SPx 4H / Toward ATH and Bearish SideS&P 500 Technical Analysis: Potential Shift from Bullish to Bearish Trend
The S&P 500 is currently striving to reach its all-time high (ATH), but a bearish trend may emerge if the price stabilizes below 5675 or 5709. If this occurs, the index is expected to decline towards 5620 and 5584, with a break below 5584 signaling the start of a significant bearish trend for the week. On the other hand, if the price stabilizes above 5675, it could test 5709, and a sustained move above 5709 would indicate the beginning of a new bullish phase.
Key Levels:
Pivot Line: 5644
Resistance Levels: 5675, 5709, 5732
Support Levels: 5620, 5584, 5525
Expected Trading Range for Today: The price is anticipated to fluctuate between 5584 and 5675.
Current Trend: The market is expected to initially move bullishly towards the ATH, followed by a potential bearish reversal.
SPX500 H4 | Approaching all-time highSPX500 is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 5,673.64 which is a swing-high resistance that aligns close to the all-time high.
Stop loss is at 5,710.00 which is a level that sits above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level and the all-time high.
Take profit is at 5,579.72 which is an overlap support level.
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