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Thin Markets Unnerve Traders: What to Know About Summer TradingLow trading volume is the market theme of the summer, which is driving investors to question their knowledge and ability to move in and out of markets. Forex, stocks, commodities and even crypto — they all seem more volatile during the summer quarter and there’s a reason for that. Big-shot traders ditch the trading desks for margaritas, espresso martinis and tan on the Amalfi coast while algo trading gets to slosh around billions of dollars. The result — thin liquidity sinks trades every now and then. August Trading Shakes and Stirs Markets The summer months have rolled in and with them a heightened feeling of unease has swept global markets. From a rally in the Japanese yen , to a big meltdown in stocks and crypto market carnage , asset classes got shook from this one market characteristic — volume . Thinning trading volumes disrupted the usual market rhythm, ushering in an environment dominated by increased volatility and unpredictable swings. Low volumes have the tendency to amplify price declines and increases. Illiquid August conditions may turn a rather normal move into a violent swing. Fewer shares traded means that a trading instrument is more susceptible to sharp price movements as there are fewer participants to absorb the trades. Panic Selling and the Carry Trade A volatility storm swept Japan’s stock market last week, throwing it into its worst single-day performance since 1987. Japan’s broad-based index Nikkei NI225 crumbled 12.4% in a single session while US stocks slumped 3%. Wall Street’s fear gauge, the VIX index of volatility VIX , shot up more than 50% to its highest level in 2020 when the pandemic was wreaking havoc. A day later, Japan bounced up 10% and the S&P 500 jumped 1%. The VIX shot lower by 28%. Japan ended up in the spotlight due to the unwinding of what’s called the “carry trade” — big hedge funds had borrowed trillions of cheap Japanese yen at near-zero interest rates to buy stocks or jam the cash into Treasury bills that pay a 5% interest. Risk-free. What’s not to like? The yen’s rise, for one. The sharp appreciation of the yen sent panicked carry traders scrambling to dump their holdings and repay their yen debt, which was getting more expensive. It’s the Algos’ Market, We All Live In It In August, traders typically exchange about 9.3 billion of US shares a day. Compared to March, where 13.2 billion shares change hands a day, that’s a 30% decrease in trading volume. Apparently, Wall Street does get a break from trading. Or does it? The stock market and the currency market, in particular, are dominated by and large by computer-trading algorithms that execute trades at lightning speed based on pre-programmed criteria. These algorithms, or simply algos, are allowed to process huge amounts of data and react to market conditions in milliseconds. While this can create efficiency and liquidity in normal market conditions, during periods of low volume — such as the summer months — they can contribute to increased volatility, especially if they are levered to the tune of 15, 20, 30 times. A single large order or a sudden piece of news can trigger a cascade of algorithmic responses, leading to rapid and sometimes exaggerated price movements. In other words, when these algos make a decision, that’s when volatility goes through the roof. Pair it with low volumes and you’ve got an explosion (or implosion) of prices. How to Survive Wild Markets? Given the unique challenges of summer trading, traders need to adjust their strategies accordingly. Here are some tips that can help. Lower Position Sizes : In a thin market, large positions can be harder to exit without moving the market (especially if you’ve loaded up on illiquid meme coins). Reducing position sizes can help mitigate this risk. Wider Stops : With increased volatility, it may be necessary to widen stop-loss orders to avoid getting wiped out by intraday market noise. Focus on Liquidity : Stick to trading more liquid instruments where possible, as these will typically be less affected by the summer slowdown. Hint: forex is the most liquid market. Keep an Eye on Economic Data : Summer doesn’t stop economic data releases , which can lead to outsized market reactions in a light market. Stay informed. Patience and Discipline : Summer trading requires patience and discipline. The temptation to overtrade in a quiet market can lead to mistakes. It’s often better to wait for clearer setups rather than forcing trades in a challenging environment. While you're waiting for the right moment to step in, test your strategies and find the best moves for future trades. What Do You Think? Summer trading presents a unique set of challenges that can unnerve even the most experienced traders. Thin markets, increased volatility, and the dominant role of algorithmic trading create an environment where caution is paramount. How do you handle volatile markets in thin trading? Let us know in the comments and let’s spin up a nice discussion!
Editors' picks
SP:SPX
by TradingView
4
Bullish Momentum in S&P 500 as Market Stabilizes Above 5327Bullish Momentum in S&P 500 as Market Stabilizes Above 5327 The S&P 500 (SPX) has stabilized within a bullish trend by stabilizing above 5327, targeting 5363 and 5412 soon. The current volatility and technical indicators suggest bullish momentum. Bullish Scenario: As long as the price trades above 5327 will support a bullish trend toward 5412 Bearish Scenario: the price should drop to stabilize under 5327 to be downtrend toward 5260 Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 5327 - Resistance Levels: 5365, 5412, 5450 - Support Levels: 5291, 5260, 5214 Today's Expected Trading Range: The price is anticipated to fluctuate between 5291 and 5412. Direction : looks bullish above 5327
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
240812 Market OutlookLast two weeks adjustment was aligned with the rise in Unemployment Rate and associated worries about the possible US economic slowdown. A week ago gap was closed last Friday, but there still remain another gap on Aug-2, which slightly increase the probability of further rise in US stocks. The focus of this week is inflation data from US, including PPI on Tue, Inflation Rate on Wed and Retail Sales on Thu. Additionally, investors should pay attention to Initial Claims on Thu and Michigan Consumer Sentiment on Fri.
SP:SPXLong
by moncap2023
S&P500 - Possible Rise#trading_idea #US500 #US500 - Key Moment On the daily chart, it’s visible that the price is testing a key resistance level at 5360. The MA(100) is already slightly lower. Traders have bought the recent dip. A Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern has formed. At the same time, the Stochastic indicator suggests a possible continuation of the asset’s upward movement. 🔼We might see a break of the 5360 key level, with a possible further rise to 5402 and 5449. 🔽Alternatively, the price may down back to test 5297 support. 😎 Hit "👍" if you believe the price will rise and "👎" if you foresee it dropping.
VANTAGE:SP500Long
by sabiotrade
SPX: cancelled recessionFear of recession was one of the major drivers behind the US equity market's significant drop two weeks ago, however, Monday brought a change in the mood. The markets started to be relaxed that the recession time is still not on the schedule of the US economy, and that they might continue with an optimistic view on future earnings. Still, something has changed in terms that many investors are currently more precautious when returning to the equity market is in question. Analysts are currently revisiting their projections, in which sense, BCA is projecting that the S&P 500 might reach 3.750 by 2025 amid slowdown in the world economy and collapse of the carry trade in the Yen. At the same time analysts from Wells Fargo noted to investors “buy stocks, not the stock market”, remaining with a forecasted 5.535 for the S&P 500 as of the end of this year. The S&P 500 performed in a strong manner during the week, with a move from 5.130 points up to 5.344 as of the end of the week, gaining around 4% for the week. Although it sounds like a huge weekly gain, it should be taken into consideration that previously, the index lost 10% from its recent all time highest level. The tech companies were again the ones which led the market to the upside. META was up by 5% on Friday, while pharmaceutical Eli Lilly was trading higher by 11%, due to revised earnings to the upside till the end of this year. Although the recession is cancelled for the moment, still, some precaution in further anticipation of the S&P 500 moves to the upside should be taken with precaution.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
Is this a SELL SIGNAL for S&P 500 this week???Technical speaking, we have predicted that last week, the s&p 500 might started to rebound, since we've seen three to four bearish candles before trend reversal in the past pullbacks, and last week was the forth candle of this pullback. And it just moved as we've predicted. And for now, the price is still rebounding from overall bearish market. So this week, we might pay close attention to the ending signal of this rebound, for example, the price be rejected by the resistance of previous low. Key macroeconomic dates include the U.S. releasing the July PPI on August 13, the July CPI on August 14, and the so-called "dreaded" July retail sales data on August 15. Also, Japan will release its Q2 GDP, likely stirring the pot again with yen carry trades. In political news, the latest Financial Times poll shows Harris with a 1% lead over Trump in the presidential race. I think from economic reports to the election, all could drive more volatility in U.S. stocks. Investors should keep a close eye on market movements and manage their risks accordingly.
SP:SPXShort
by xugina78
SPX: Possible Completion of Wave 1After further analysis, I believe we have completed larger Wave 1 down and have began Wave 2 up. The reason for my change of my opinion is the current prices have surpassed the 0.382 retracement for which wave 4 should reject and begin Wave 5. I see Wave 4 of larger wave 1 ended on Aug 7 and wave 5 of larger Wave 1 ended later that same day. If we are in larger wave 2, expect a full Wave 2 to complete at the 0.618 retracement of wave 1 at 5490. This target aligns well with the resistance we saw the last week of July. At that point, we will begin wave 1 of larger Wave 3 down.
SP:SPX
by FiboTrader1
Think the S&P can't go lower?The S&P trades well above the 50MA weekly, potentially overbought. Price action could work ifs way below the 200 MA. The risk to reward ratio may lead investors away from stocks and into bonds in favor of less but more assurable returns. Stocks have been all the rage since 2008 finacial collapse. The tide may have finally turned due to tight monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (i.e. no more low interest rates). TLDR - Investors are going to be risk averse
SP:SPX
by turtlebuster
1
SPX - Decision Time - ATH or 5000?This coming week will be big. I see us hitting my Target 2 (5400) maybe Monday or Tuesday. we have PPI on Tuesday and Inflation on Wednesday which should send us onto target 3. Will it be ATH or as I'm leaning towards go down near the April low around 5000 where the 200DMA is sitting. I think it wants to tag the 200DMA before moving higher... Bad inflation this week could do it. We are also in Mercury Retrograde.. Which is usually negative in markets although we already dropped a lot. Plus we are also still in a bear new moon for another week.. so there is two negatives plus it looks like a nice bear flag is forming. What do you think? Heading to ATH or go down near 5K first then ATH?
SP:SPXShort
by TheUniverse618
4
Massive Sentiment Swing (Bears vs Bulls Royal Rumble)Many traders were looking for answers this week. What just happened? The quick summary is the JPY carry trade was quickly unwinding and as the Nikkei 225 was dumping with the largest 2 day move (EVER) the JPY volatility increased. On top of that, the FED didn't cut rates in July (as expected) and elected to punt to September (with likely 25 bps cut forecasted). Unfortunately, Thursday Unemployment Claims were higher and Friday's Non-Farm was a massive whiff. This triggered concerns that the FED is now behind the curve and the economy is heading into a recession (Sahm Rule is undefeated as a predictor). Key takeaways from me this week - VIX made the 2nd largest single day spike (Friday to Monday), and 24 hrs later made the 1st largest single day retreat (Monday to Tuesday). As I explain in the video, eerily similar volatility event like we saw in 2017 into January 2018. History rhymes and 2017/2018 were very different economic times compared to today. The week ahead is a bit lighter on US earnings, but key news is PPI and CPI (Tue and Wed prints). I'll be watching the key equilibrium levels to see who gets the upper hand. Do bears attempt to push price lower and re-test the lows? Do bulls continue to rip after the outlier cleanse and we're back to all-time highs before the election or end of year? We'll find out. I'll be watching and trading and doing my best. Thanks for watching!!!
SP:SPX
by ChrisPulver
SP500 new ath before collapseSP:SPX Last time we dropped 35% on covid pandemic Now we have a correction 27% its more than enough Last impulse up till 2025 November can be in a range 5500 - 6200 Take profit and exit line on my custom indicator, all lines are dynamic Before we will see new trigger and end of 18 year property cycle Than we will see big correction to 3200-3000 "Buy line" on my custom indicator Based on my second indicator Market Mood we already 3 times passed white zone on indicator which called disbelief zone when the best time accumulate crypto, indexes, etc Last impulse will be slowly but surely and will end on euphoria before disaster conflict between USA and China, hunger, new pandemic. Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch! ✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes. --- • Look at my ideas about interesting altcoins in the related section down below ↓ • For more ideas please hit "Like" and "Follow"!
SP:SPX
by Crypto4light
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Aug 9, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The S&P 500 Index displayed severe downward movement during the current week's trading session as we blasted through Key Sup 5238 and completed our long-time flagged target, Inner Index Dip 5131. The resilient rebound occurs, and the current market price action rests at Mean Res 5345. The likelihood of interim downward pressure toward the Mean Support at 5280 exists before the index resumes its upward trajectory. However, the prevailing price action suggests a sustained uptrend toward the Inner Interim Index Rally 5443, possibly extending to Mean Res 5525. However, these attained targets are likely to exert downward pressure.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter