This Morning we are Coming Down from the Election Sugar HighAlthough the larger pattern has yet to flash red and break down, we may have started that eventual descent this morning.
US500 trade ideas
Market Mess Tariff TurdI'm expecting the market to full-stop halt here on the tariffs and turn into a messy sludge.
Dollar Up, Markets will be a mess.
Good luck.
Not a big correctionI don't see any fundamental or technical indications for a correction larger than 6020-6000 here. After the Fed meeting, the inflation data and the first big earnings reports, nothing hints at a 20% correction as some are claiming here.
SPX - Presidential Update - Downside potential to 3500 in 4 yearHello everyone! Apologies for the audio quality - my laptop has been acting up.
I take this moment to update a prior video I did 4 years ago looking at presidential cycles. Historically speaking, looking at the 90s through today, we tend to see bigger corrections during republican leadership.
Clinton - Essentially no corrections.
Bush - Two major corrections (dot-com bubble and housing bubble)
Obama - Essentially no corrections.
Trump v1 - 3 corrections, including COVID
Biden - 1 correction in 2022
Trump v2 - Remains to be seen
Trump has already made significant waves and has demonstrated that he is not afraid to do so. We will probably see some volatile times ahead. I outline in the video 3 important levels to watch:
SPX 4800 - Prior all time high in late 2021
SPX 4200 - Seen as support and resistance in 2022/2023 (was the low in Oct 2023)
SPX 3600 - 2022 low and Oct 2021 high
A correction to 3600 would be a huge correction and would be worst case scenario in my eyes - I'd be more inclined to think 4800 will be the place we will go. This likely will take *years* to complete and is fully dependent upon how Trump situates the USA from a global perspective.
Don't get caught on the wrong side of the trade. Make sure you are diversified and have some cash on hand to take advantage of value plays that will almost certainly present themselves to us.
Trade safely, friends!
Bearish drop?S&P500 (US500) is rising towards the pivot and could drop to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support.
Pivot: 5,979.20
1st Support: 5,818.18
1st Resistance: 6,113.40
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Nightly $SPX / $SPY Scenarios for 2.3.2025🔮
📅 Mon, Feb 3
⏰ 10:00 AM ET
📊 ISM Manufacturing PMI
Previous: 49.3
Forecast: 49.2
💡 Market Scenarios:
📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ:A further gap up would lead to it holding for a little, then chopping near the EEZ.
📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ:Breakout to the EEZ, make a higher push, and round out the top.
📉 GAP BELOW HCZ:Due to the ongoing momentum, we will get a slight recovery but still drop and chop back down into the lower range.
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #charting #trendtao
SPX Macro - Mega TrendSPX MEGA MACRO - US STOCK MARKET ROAD MAP
The US stock market has been in a megatrend since 1932.
Heading to the daily 50 (6000)Two days with a devastating selloff at the close, a clear sign that the index is not yet ready to position itself above 6100.
The first short-term light blue support was broken at Friday's close, and now the index will move towards the underlying support indicated by the blue trendline, where the daily SMA50 also passes through near 6000 points .
Holding this support will initiate a new attempt to break 6100.
Conquering 6100 is an important phase that will start a new bullish cycle and subsequently act as strong support. The breakout must occur with strength and large volumes.
Long term support on S&P 500Some support and resistance lines on the S&P 500. Important to keep in mind the long term support line from the 2020 bottom.
-10% CRASH Bears coming, Bulls, BTD for a Blow off Top $SPYDecline Ahead, we have the exact same chart on the monthly. I guess that means we could have just one month at least of red. This is a weekly chart with the same pattern as the monthly on SPX. I will post it shortly. We have a 9 Count Sell Signal with a 13 Count Follow up. The 14th Candle takes a 10% dip. On several occasions in this candle combo. I will attach a link to another example.
-10 Decline in the next month, Buy the dip for a Blow off top Refer to a Previous Post. Blow OFF TOP COMING. BUT NOT BEFORE A COUPLE OF SCARES. Short the RIP. BUY THE DIP. Patience. 4-6 weeks of 10% moves back and forth... Accumulate the wins for the Longs... Hold for a year... Short everything Mid 26' if it gets that far MCFLY
Market SnapshotHmmmnnnnn.......
www.dailymail.co.uk
"Hedge funds are making a multi-billion-dollar gamble against the US economy, betting Donald Trump's presidency will result in a massive market crash that could devastate 401(k)s, pensions, and household savings across America.
Data from Goldman Sachs has sent shockwaves through financial circles, revealing a dramatic surge in 'short' positions against US stocks - a move that signals a belief the market is headed for a precipitous crash.
Throughout January, investors placed 10 times more bets on American stocks falling than on their continued rise, a staggering shift that reflects growing unease over Wall Street's future under Trump's leadership.
The timing of such financial revolt is no coincidence and comes just as the world witnessed a $600 billion wipeout in major US tech stocks earlier this week, driven by fears over Chinese AI rival DeepSeek, which disrupted the once-unshakable dominance of America's technology sector. "
Down for SPX500USDHi traders,
Last week SPX500USD did exactly what I've said in my outlook. On Monday it dropped impulsive to the downside and after it reached the Daily FVG it correctively went up again. On Friday it started the next move down.
So next week we could see the finish of the corrective move down into the lower 4H FVG and after that more upside.
Or if it breaks the low from the (orange) Y-wave, the correction down becomes bigger.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for the bigger correction down to finish and a change in orderflow to bullish again. After that you could trade longs.
If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost and respectful comment.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis.
If you don't agree, that's fine but I don't need to know it. I do not provide signals.
Don't be emotional, just trade!
Eduwave
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 31, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the current weekly trading session, the S&P 500 has successfully retested the significant threshold of the completed Outer Index Rally at 6123. The market is presently exhibiting a downtrend phase, as the bullish momentum appears to be temporarily suspended. Analyses indicate that this downward trajectory will likely persist, with targets set at the Mean Support levels of 5996 and potentially 5936. This considerable corrective pullback may create an opportunity for the re-establishment of a bullish trajectory toward further rally targets. Should this development occur, the market could be favorably positioned for the subsequent phase of the bullish trend, which would involve retesting the completed Outer Index Rally level of 6120 and targeting the following Outer Index Rally levels of 6233 and the highly anticipated target of 6418.
S&P 500 SELL ANAYSIS SMART MONEY COCNCEPT Here on S&P 500 price form a supply around level of 6096.15 and now moving down so is likely to continue going down that means trader should go for short with expect profit target of 5946.21 and 5834.42 . Use money management
Bear market ideaWhich asset does well in a S&P bearmarket? Contra: NDQ, GOLD, QDVF, USDEUR, TLT. I will include more idea's in future.
