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US500 trade ideas

S&P500 The Week Ahead 17th March '25S&P 500 INTRADAY bearish & oversold capped by resistance at 5759 (200DMA) This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
4
SPX500 Long Trade Setup Analysis (1D Timeframe - Blackbull)Previous SPX idea has hit our stop loss. The position was entered on touch of the lower channel trend line, however we have since fell through our tight stop. Our outlook for the SPX remains the same, with a new entry shown above between 5589-5560 and a stop loss placed below higher timeframe (8 day dynamic support) and the 61.8% fib retracement around 5360. Targets remain the same, fundamentals remain the same. Risk to reward is now 1:4. Below is the previous ideas description which is still valid with the new price levels mentioned above: Previous idea (Stop loss hit): SPX500 is at a crucial inflection point. Will the support hold, or are we breaking down? Previous ideas setup identified on 11th January has now come into fruition: 📈 Current Setup: 📈 The SPX500 is approaching major resistance at 6,663.37 - the 0.618 Fibonacci Extension of the most recent high timeframe move dating back to July 2024 - present. The previous low in July 2024 also happens to be the previous touch of this same ascending channel. Check out our previously published long-term outlook on the SPX (view it out at the bottom of this publication). 🛩 Right now, we can see price is testing the channel's lower supporting trend line, which lines up nicely with previous structure support, and a 0.38% Fibonacci Retracement of the August 2024-present move. Having multiple confluences of supporting indications, as well as aligning with our longer time perspective on higher timeframe direction, it is likely we will see a bounce up from here. 📉 A failure to bounce here however could either be a fake-out or the top of the SPX. We do not believe this is the top, and we will not short should price break down further. We will sit back and monitor, looking for a new entry on the lower Fibonacci levels highlighted in our charts, with tight stops to minimize risk. 🔹 Key Resistance Levels (Potential Rejection Zones): 🎯 6,663.37 – 0.618 Fib extension + channel resistance + previous higher time frame idea (found at the bottom of this publication) 🎯 6,832.13 – 0.764 Fib extension, final inversion trigger for bears 🎯 7,000 – Psychological round-number top, multi-year equilibrium ceiling 🔹 Key Support Levels: ❗ 5,755.70 – 0.382 Fib retracement, 4x-tested structural support 🔹 5,624.61 – Channel midpoint convergence 📉 5,362.03 – 0.764 Fib retracement, final long opportunity supporting the idea of a 6,650 All-Time High, below this level leads to invalidation and bearish sentiment. 🚀 Bullish Scenario (Anticipated Play Before Long-Term Reversal): 🟢 Entry: Touch of channel support, previous structure support, 0.38 Fib 5,755.13 (validated sustained close). 🎯 Take Profit 1: 6,150 (Previous high). 🎯 Take Profit 2: 6,429 (-0.272 Fib extension). 🎯 Take Profit 3: 6,575 (See previous idea at the bottom of this publication). 🔴 Stop Loss: Below 5,629 (Bull invalidation). ✅ Justification: 🛩 The SPX has seen a dip recently, mostly as a result of geopolitical tension (see below), however, we believe based on our technical analysis both here and our long-term high time frame analysis that we will see the SPX push up one final time over the coming months before the bears take control. 🛩 Seasonal strength in early March and potential Fed dovishness could fuel momentum. 📉 Bearish Scenario (Primary Expectation Once 6,650 is Reached): ❌ Invalidation Level: Sustained close above 7,000 (Multi-decade equilibrium barrier). 🔹 Downside Short-Term Targets: 5,755.70 – 0.382 Fib + channel support. 5,624.61 – Mid-channel gravity. 5,362.03 – 0.764 Fib extension + recent channel low. 🔹 Downside Long-Term Targets: 5,500 – 0.382 Fib 4,700 – 0.618 Fib Retracement & previous high 4,300 – 0.764 Fib Retracement - Unlikely, but possible. ✅ Justification: ❗ Please read - ❗ Higher Time Frame Long-Term Analysis - ❗ Geopolitical/economic risks (see fundamentals below) could accelerate downside. ⚡ Key Takeaways: 🛩 SPX500 is at a crossroads: Bearish reversal likely if rejected at 6,663.37–6,832.13. 🛩 Breakdown below 5,755.70 confirms channel breakdown, targeting 5,362.03. 🛩 Bullish bias requires hold above 6,832.13; otherwise, bears dominate. 📰 Fundamental Catalysts (March 8–15, 2025): Economic Releases: 🗓 Mar 10: U.S. CPI Inflation (High Impact) – Core CPI at 3.2% y/y could force Fed hawkishness. 🗓 Mar 12: Retail Sales (High Impact) – Expected 0.3% MoM post-holiday slowdown. 🗓 Mar 14: FOMC Meeting & Dot Plot – Fed may hike +50bps ahead of 2025 elections. 🌐 Geopolitical Developments: 🗓 Mar 11: Belgium Elections – Risk of coalition fragmentation delaying EU fiscal unity. 🗓 Mar 13: Middle East Tensions – Reported Iran-Israel escalation impacts energy markets. 🗓 Ongoing: Brexit 2.0 Developments – UK-EU trade deal negotiations resume, GBP volatility. 📊 Portfolio Management Strategy: 💰 Buy Entry: At 5,755.70 (0.382 Fib confluence). 🎯 Take Profit: 6,570 (Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:6). ❌ Stop Loss: Below 5,624.61 (50% Fib).
BLACKBULL:US500.FLong
by Who-Is-Caerus
more fall Pattern Identified: On the chart provided (originally a 5-minute chart), a descending triangle is observed between points (A), (B), (C), (D), and (E). If we group the movements on a 15-minute timeframe, the pattern would still be relevant, but with less noise and more consolidated candles. Point A: Initial high around 5567.3, marking the start of the downtrend. Point B: Initial support of the triangle, near 5520.1. Point C: Descending resistance of the triangle, showing a price compression. Point D: Lower support of the triangle, also near 5520.1. Point E: A bearish breakout below D is confirmed, with the price falling toward 5500. Analysis: On a 15-minute timeframe, the descending triangle would indicate consolidation after an initial downtrend. A breakout below D (5520) confirms the bearish continuation. Volume (not visible on the chart, but a factor to consider) likely increased during the breakout, validating the move. The price appears to be heading toward more significant support around 5500, which has already been tested. Projection: Bearish Target: If the price continues to decline, the next key level could be between 5480 and 5470, depending on historical support or the projected height of the triangle. Bullish Reversal: If the price rebounds from 5500 and breaks above the triangle resistance (around 5540), we could see a further move toward 5567. Strategy: Short: Entry after the breakout at D (5520), with a stop loss adjusted above the triangle resistance (5540) and an initial profit-taking at 5480. Buy (Alternate Scenario): If the price rebounds from 5500 and breaks higher, enter above 5540, with a stop loss below 5520 and a profit-taking at 5567. Risk Management: Take a 1-2% risk per trade and monitor macroeconomic events that may affect the S&P 500. Note: This analysis is for informational purposes only and is based on a simulated 15-minute timeframe. Be sure to confirm this with a real 15-minute chart and apply appropriate risk management.
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by JAG_Trader
If SPX Rallies Here… I’m Hitting the Sell Button HardIf SPX Rallies Here… I’m Hitting the Sell Button Hard | SPX Analysis 14 Mar 2025 The lazy bear keeps rolling downhill, but if history has anything to say about it, it might just wake up for a quick stretch before heading lower again. 📌 Last time, SPX pushed down, bounced, then continued lower. 📌 Gamma Exposure suggests 5500/5520 are price magnets, with 5550 acting as resistance. 📌 A short-term pop before another drop wouldn’t be surprising. With bear swings already unloading, profits are stacking up, but there’s still plenty of juice left in the move. I’ll be watching for one more push higher before looking for the next bearish entry—unless the market decides to hand me a clean setup first. Otherwise? I’m calling it early for some live music, a zoo visit, and a St. Paddy’s pint. 🎷🍻 Let’s break it down… --- Deeper Dive Analysis: The market continues to stair-step lower, but like any good trend, nothing moves in a straight line forever. 📌 The Setup – Is a Bounce Before the Next Drop Coming? If you look at past price action, the last time SPX broke down, it: Pushed lower. Briefly popped back up. Then continued the descent. Now, we’re seeing a similar structure forming. 📌 GEX Levels Are Painting a Clear Picture Using my new toy, Gamma Exposure, I’m watching: 5500/5520 acting as magnets—price is likely drawn to them. 5550 as a possible resistance level before rolling back down. If price rallies into these levels, I’ll be hunting bearish entries. 📌 Trade Execution Plan – Stick With What Works Delaying bullish trade ideas until we clear 5700. Looking for reversal setups and pulse bars around 5550. Targeting 5500/5520 for a possible low-of-day move. 📌 Profits Locked In—Time for a Break? Bear swings are paying out, and I’m sitting in a good position with my exposure. Some tranches have already hit profit targets. If more reach exit targets, I’ll reposition if the setup aligns. Otherwise, it’s time to enjoy a well-earned long weekend. The market can move without me for a couple of days—but if the setup is there, I’ll be ready to strike. 🎷 Saxophones, zoo visits, and a St. Patrick’s pint are calling. 🍀 --- Fun Fact 📢 Did you know? The first recorded stock market crash happened in 1637—and it wasn’t stocks that crashed, it was… tulips. 💡 The Lesson? Markets have been overreacting to hype for centuries. Whether it’s tulips, tech stocks, or meme trades, human nature never changes—only the assets do.
SP:SPXShort
by MrPhilNewton
SPX Volume profile support and gap through. Must know toolI have taken a volume profile across the rally to project Low value nodes and high value nodes to find support levels during the decline. I simply cannot emphasis enough how valuable this tool is if learn to use correctly. I use this conjunction with geometry (hidden here) Most us know prices will come to fill the price gaps in the future, but LVN and HVN can provide information that price and volume cannot provide on their own. Eg a large bar could have a heavy volume, but you wouldn't know at what price the volume was, whether it was at the opening or closing, unless you look at the VP. Inspite of a huge volume there could be a price gap hidden in the bar
SP:SPXShort
by krisoz
SPX - Continuing the downward trendGiven the flow of bearish orders on the daily and lower timeframes, the SPX is still in a bearish trend. Of course, if the weekly candle closes below 5771.3, the structure on this timeframe will also become bearish. So in this situation, opening short positions is better than long positions. Note that any upward movement can only be a small daily correction. We will probably see another BoS on the 15-minute timeframe today and the price could reach another support level. Everything is clear on the chart Watch, enjoy, be profitable
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by alixjey
$SPX - Trading Levels for March 13 2025 Alright, y’all. We are dangling, unsupported underneath the 200DMA and that Bear Gap. I am trading cautiously today because inflation data days I tend to make a lot of mistakes. 35EMA - this level is a BEAST. We were unable to get above it yesterday. Trace it back 3 weeks and you’ll see it’s been there every time to push us back lower. I will be looking to the outer spreads and even then I might push it out a little. If and when I take a position I will update it here. GL, y’all.
SP:SPX
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
Century-Old SPX Channel Signals Crucial Market Inflection1. Long-term Channel: The SPX has been following a clearly defined logarithmic trend channel, with highs and lows confined within this channel for nearly a century. 2. Current Price Action (2025): o The index recently broke through the upper bound of the historical channel in 2024. o It's retraced back through the channel in March 2025. 3. Historical Reference Points: o Significant points noted are the 1929 market crash, the 1932 market low, and subsequent recoveries and corrections. o The marked reference points (1929, 1932, 1942, 2000, 2009, 2020, 2022, and 2024) show pivotal moments where the price interacted meaningfully with this long-term channel. Key Observations and Considerations: • Logarithmic Scale: o This emphasizes percentage changes rather than absolute values, clearly showing the growth pattern and highlighting significant deviations from average trend growth. • Long-term Perspective: o For investors, this signals caution in the near-term, suggesting potential further downside. o From a longer-term perspective, significant pullbacks within this historical channel have historically provided strong opportunities for long-term investment.
SP:SPX
by PrestigeWorldwideTradingCo
Is 5,400 Points the Bottom for the S&P 500? Key Levels You Need The S&P 500 Index has been experiencing a sharp downturn, heavily influenced by broader macroeconomic factors such as President Trump’s tariff policies. This has had a ripple effect across risk assets, including the cryptocurrency market, which has been closely correlated with traditional markets. In this update, we analyze whether 5400 points could serve as a key bottoming level for the S&P 500 and what that means for broader market conditions. Technical Points to Consider: 5400 as a Key Support Zone – The index is approaching a major technical confluence zone, which includes a 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, a VWAP SR level from the October 2023 lows, and an open swing low. These factors suggest an oversold bounce may be imminent. Market Structure Breakdown – The S&P 500 has shifted from higher highs and higher lows to now potentially forming a lower low. A relief rally could lead to a lower high before continuation downward. Impact on Crypto Markets – If a short-term bottom forms in equities, we could see a correlated bounce in the cryptocurrency market, offering long trade opportunities in altcoins. The extreme oversold conditions in the market suggest that a relief bounce is highly probable. Markets often react to key technical levels, and the presence of multiple confluence factors at 5400 makes it a critical zone to watch. While a temporary bounce is expected, it is essential to consider whether this move will lead to a sustained recovery or merely a short-lived retracement before further downside. The structure of the bounce, volume inflows, and broader market sentiment will be key factors in determining the next trend. For cryptocurrency traders, the correlation between the S&P 500 and Bitcoin means that any shift in equities could impact crypto price action. If the S&P 500 finds support and initiates a bounce, risk-on assets like altcoins may also experience relief rallies. However, these moves must be evaluated carefully—altcoins are often more volatile than equities, and chasing a bounce without confirmation could lead to unnecessary risk exposure. Identifying the right setups in this environment requires patience and a strategic approach. Ultimately, market timing and discipline will be crucial in navigating this potential bottoming process. If 5400 holds as support and a bullish structure begins forming, traders may find strong long opportunities in both traditional markets and crypto. However, if price fails to hold, a continuation lower could present an entirely new set of trading conditions. Waiting for market alignment, confirmed reversals, and volume support will be key before taking decisive action.
SP:SPX
by AzizKhanZamani