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US500 trade ideas

Downward pressure on S&P 500 Index intensified past daysYesterday's sell-off damaged the S&P 500's 50-day moving average. While we initially saw a bounce back at the opening, it didn't hold. This makes the 5925 level a critical point to watch as we head toward the end of the year. For those keeping an eye on the charts, a trendline has been intact since the low in October 2023. Although it was breached during the August downturn, we managed to rally back into the bullish channel that's been forming since the fourth quarter of 2023. This channel offers support around the 5800 mark, and I anticipate this level will hold as we close out the year. Should we dip further, the following support levels to watch are 5690 and 5525. While I don't foresee us dropping to these lower levels before year-end, it's essential to acknowledge the potential downside risk. The market sentiment shifted following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, giving sellers the upper hand for the first time since the summer.
SP:SPX
by IrinaTK
Rate Cut Disappoints: Stocks and Gold Experience Sharp Declines◉ Abstract On December 18, 2024, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 0.25%, marking its third cut in a row. However, the Fed also said it might not cut rates much more in the future because it expects the economy to grow stronger and inflation to continue. This cautious message worried investors, causing a sharp drop in the stock market. The S&P 500 fell about 2.96%, its biggest one-day loss since August. Gold prices also dropped by around 1.6%. The declines in both stocks and gold show that investors are feeling uncertain about the economy and are rethinking their investments based on the Fed's outlook. Continue reading the full article: ◉ Introduction On December 18, 2024, both the S&P 500 and gold experienced significant declines, driven primarily by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions and market reactions to economic forecasts. ◉ Federal Reserve's Decision ● The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25%. This is typically a positive move for equities and commodities like gold. ● However, the Fed signalled a more cautious approach to future rate cuts, expecting stronger economic growth and persistent inflation. ● This cautious outlook raised concerns about the possibility of limited future rate cuts, which spooked investors. ◉ Market Reactions 1. Stock Market Decline ● The S&P 500 fell by approximately 2.96%, marking its largest single-day percentage drop since August 5th. ● The market's reaction reflected a realization that previous optimistic expectations about aggressive rate cuts were misplaced. 2. Gold's Decline ● Gold prices dropped sharply, with an intraday decline of about 1.6%. ● Gold, while a safe-haven asset, is less desirable in a rising rate environment due to increased opportunity costs. ● With the Fed's indication of fewer future rate cuts, investors shifted away from gold. ◉ Overall Market Sentiment The simultaneous decline in both equities and gold can be attributed to a broader market sentiment that reacted negatively to the Fed's cautious outlook on inflation and growth prospects. This created a risk-off environment where investors were uncertain about both stock valuations and commodity holdings.
SP:SPX
by NaranjCapital
1
SPX 2025 Strategic Outlook 7150 points Wave Five Bull Market🔸Time to update the SPX outlook, this is 2D price chart, we are currently entering overpriced zone and limited upside in SPX going forward next few weeks correction / pullback. 🔸SPX price structure since 2023 is defined by a five wave impulse wave 3 completed already and currently we are in wave 4 pullback/correction until 5415 points. expecting wave four pullback to complete in January 2025. 🔸Wave 1 is 3600 to 4625, wave two 4625 to 4125, wave three 4125 to 6100,wave 4 pullback/correction now is 6100 to 5416, final bullish wave five is expected to start from 5415 to 7150 points (30% bull run). Wave 5 expected to start in January 2025 and complete sometime in Q4 2025. A/B/C 40% correction will follow as the market will enter extremely overbought zone. 🔸Recommended strategy position traders: wait for the wave 4 correction to complete at/near 5415 points in January 2025 and then BUY/HOLD into wave 5 final target is 7150 points in Q4 2025. Obviously, this is a longer BUY/HOLD trade setup and patience is required with this trade. good luck! 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
SP:SPXLong
by ProjectSyndicate
10
SP500 Weekly Trade Idea – Valid only with Close below 5977.8The S&P 500 has been on a stellar rally this year, rewarding long-term investors who bought and held through market turbulence. However, the current technical and macroeconomic setup suggests a possible correction could be on the horizon. Here’s how to approach it strategically. 🛠️ Technical Analysis from the Chart: 1️⃣ **Resistance Zone (6025-6050):** - The index is facing strong resistance in this red zone, indicating a potential **stall in bullish momentum**. Failure to break through this level increases the likelihood of a pullback. 2️⃣ Critical Support Levels: - **5690-5628 Zone:** First significant demand zone. A break below could trigger deeper corrections. - **5395-5365 Zone:** Key structural support from previous accumulation. - Long-term potential target near **4500**, aligning with historical correction structures. 3️⃣ Weekly Close Watch (5977.8): - A **close below 5977.8** could confirm the start of a correction, likely forming a 3-to-5 wave structure typical of corrective phases. 🌍 Macro Context – Inflation and Valuations: - Inflation Data: - In **March 2020**, inflation was at **1.5%**, and stimulus packages helped buoy the market. - By **March 2021**, inflation climbed to **2.6%**, reflecting economic recovery and stimulus impacts. - November 2024 inflation** sits at **2.7%**, signaling a moderating trend but with base effects and monetary policies still in play. - Market Valuations: - The **Buffett Indicator** (Market Cap to GDP ratio) shows the market remains significantly overvalued. This aligns with Warren Buffett’s recent positioning, where **25% of his portfolio is in cash**, waiting for better buying opportunities. 💡 Trade Idea: 📉 Prepare for the Correction: - A correction to the **4500 level** would represent a compelling buying opportunity for long-term investors. - Avoid shorting the market; instead, focus on cash preservation and building a watchlist of fundamentally strong companies. 📊 Long-Term Strategy: - Stick to Warren Buffett’s principle: **"Be greedy when others are fearful."** - Utilize cash reserves to capitalize on discounted prices during market panic. 📌 Key Levels to Watch: - Resistance: **6025-6050 - Supports: **5690-5628**, **5395-5365**, and long-term 4500. 🚀 Optimistic Outlook: Corrections are **opportunities, not threats**. They allow investors to buy quality assets at a discount and position themselves for the next bull cycle. "Price is what you pay; value is what you get." – Warren Buffett 🐂✨ Let volatility work in your favor! 🌟
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Mike_SnD
Fed triggers US equity sell-offLast night the Federal Reserve surprised no one when it announced a 25 basis point rate cut, taking the Fed Funds band down to 4.25-4.50%, back to levels last seen two years ago. But that wasn’t the main story. The big news came with the release of the FOMC’s quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). This showed that the majority of FOMC members now expect just 50 basis points-worth of rate cuts between now and the end of next year. While this is what the CME’s FedWatch Tool has been forecasting for a some time now, it represents a major change in the FOMC’s thinking since the last SEP from September. Back then, the forecast was for 100 basis points-worth of cuts in 2025. So this represents a significant hawkish change, and one that led to a slump in equity markets and precious metals, and a surge in the US dollar and bond yields. US stock indices registered their biggest one day declines since March 2020, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury broke above 4.50% to hit its highest level since May this year. If yields find a floor here and head higher, then they could become a big headwind for equity prices going into 2025. It’s worth considering just what a mess the Fed made of that September meeting. Not only was it far too dovish in its forecasts, once again appearing to underestimate the stickiness of inflation, but it also messed up the other side of its dual mandate, the labour side. It got completely blindsided by a couple of poor Non-Farm Payroll reports, to such an extent that it panicked and cut rates by 50 basis points rather than the 25 widely expected. That decision may have set up the central bank for yesterday’s hawkish shift, although in fairness there are several other factors, not all of them bad. Inflation has ticked up recently, which makes it harder for the Fed to justify easier monetary policy. But US growth is undoubtedly robust, while unemployment appears anchored at manageable levels. There is some uncertainty over what the incoming Trump administration may mean for the economy, but overall little has changed. The Fed can be blamed for some poor messaging, but then again investors have only heard what they wanted to hear, blocking out any negative signals. The market hasn’t suddenly woken up to a string of ‘unknown unknows’ or anything else so Rumsfeldian. Instead, the sell-off in equities looks more like a panicked response from a market priced to perfection. And while it shouldn’t be a surprise to see a bounce-back as we approach the Christmas break, the odds have certainly shortened on tops being in for all the major indices.
TRADENATIONSB:US500
by TradeNation
1
Futures Steady After Wall Street Slump on Fed Rate Cut OutlookFutures Steady After Wall Street Declines on Fed's View of Fewer Rate Cuts U.S. stock index futures edged higher on Thursday as investors assessed the Federal Reserve's revised projections, which include fewer-than-expected interest rate cuts and elevated inflation expectations for next year. These updates caused a significant sell-off on Wall Street the day before. On Wednesday, the Fed announced its forecast of only two 25 basis point (bps) rate cuts in 2024, halving its previous projection from September. The central bank also raised inflation expectations for the early months of the incoming administration. These adjustments triggered the steepest daily declines in the three major U.S. stock indices since August. S&P 500 Technical Analysis The S&P 500 experienced a sharp decline of more than 3.5% due to the Federal Reserve's decision to reduce interest rates by only 25 bps. This decision created uncertainty and weighed heavily on investor sentiment. Today, the U.S. GDP report is a key event that could significantly impact the market. The GDP growth rate is projected to decline by 2.8% compared to the previous period. If the GDP data comes in below 2.8%, the market may turn bullish, potentially reaching 5971. If the GDP data exceeds 2.8%, the bearish trend could continue, with the S&P 500 targeting levels of 5885 and 5863. Key Levels Pivot Point: 5932 Resistance Levels: 5971, 5988, 6020 Support Levels: 5885, 5863, 5837 Trend Outlook Downward Trend: Likely to persist if the price remains below 5932. Upward Trend: Potential recovery if the price breaks above 5932.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
SPX500 Will Go Up! Long! Take a look at our analysis for SPX500. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a significant support area 5,900.98. The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 5,967.79 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
FX:SPX500Long
by SignalProvider
2
Potential bullish rise?S&P500 (US500) has reacted off the pivot which acts as an overlap support and could rise to the 38.3% Fibonacci resistance. Pivot: 5,868.52 1st Support: 5,788.39 1st Resistance: 5,930.95 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:US500Long
by ICmarkets
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Short to support area 5846.5.Colleagues, I assume that price is completing a five-wave upward movement. I believe that the price may reach the resistance area of 6181.6 then I will consider only downward movement in correction to the area of 5846.5. It is possible that the price will immediately start moving towards this area, but this is a more risky plan. Still, I would like to see the completion of all waves “5” in one place! Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Hellena_Trade
17