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S&P 500 Index Under Pressure – Another -10% Drop Incoming?Today, I want to analyze the S&P 500 Index ( FOREXCOM:SPX500 ) for you. This index is one of the most important indices in the US stock market , which has been determining the direction of parallel financial markets such as crypto and especially Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) for the past few days, so an analysis of this index can be important for us. The S&P 500 Index started to fall after Donald Trump imposed new tariffs on countries around the world, which was like a coronavirus . The question is whether this fall is temporary or will continue . To answer this question, we need to consider many parameters, but if we look at the sds chart from a technical analysis chart , we can expect a further decline . The S&P 500 Index is moving near the Resistance zone($5,284-$5,095) and is completing a pullback . It also lost its important Uptrend lines last week, which is not good news for the S&P 500 Index and US stocks . From an Elliott wave theory , the S&P 500 IndexS&P looks like it has completed the main wave 4 , and we should expect the next decline(-10%) . I expect the S&P 500 Index to attack the Heavy Support zone($4,820-$4,530) at least once more. The area where we can expect the S&P 500 Index to pull back is the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) . What do you think? Will the S&P 500 Index continue its downward trend, or was this decline temporary? Note: If the S&P 500 Index touches $5,408, we can expect further Pumps. Note: There is a possibility of a Bear Trap near the Heavy Support zone($4,820-$4,530) and PRZ. Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. S&P 500 Index Analyze (SPX500USD),4-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by pejman_zwin
26
Update on my thoughts on long term fibs thesis I wanted to give an overview update for those who've followed my macro thesis over the years. I've used various different things to support it but when it's come to my thoughts as to when the idea has failed I've always thought the only thing I really use for that is the big 4.23' of the 2008 crash. Since 2019 I've used the thesis big fib levels will foretell big moves in SPX, and it's worked really well. Inside the theory of trend formation through a fib swing I have been using, the 4.23 is the final boss. It's the biggest most important swing and at it everything is high stakes. 4.23 rejections can lead to 1.27 retracements. In the context of this chart, that would be a depression style move. When this area was first hit in 2022 it made the high there. One of my known for 4.23's is they'll often bluff and then have some sort of spike out. So if the 4.23 is actionable, we'd be in the end game now. Trying to work out exactly how much spike tolerance is very difficult but in the bear thesis this trading above the 4.23 should turn into a strong rejection. I'm talking conditions where weekly charts look like the 4 hour charts did in the original 10% break. What would happen on a 4.23 reversal would be unspeakably bad with the size of these swings, and this 4.23 principle can be found time and time again marking the end of extreme moves (both up moves and crashes). That's a concerning thing. If there's even a 5% chance of that happening I feel I have to think about it. Based on the odds of the fibs, the odds would be higher. It'd be fair to say thinking a fib can affect such big things is irrational. But it would be honest to accept to ignore the fact they actually have right in front of us is all the more irrational. But the 4.23 might break! It's difficult for me to tell you the specific price at which I'd consider the 4.23 to have been broken but I can tell you the idea that it might break is something I deeply consider- because if that is going to happen, my bear thesis would never be correct inside a workable time/price move. This isn't a "Right eventually" sort of thing. The patterns have expectations. If the 4.23 is not a top, then the plan totally changes. Because I know from my intraday / week trading that I really love to be fading 4.23s and 4.23 spikes regularly but if and when they fail the most exceptional of things happen. These are not all that notable intraday to anyone other than levels traders, but what if the same concept scaled up - I wondered. I wondered this a while ago and noticed it was something I'd never really checked. As it happened, all the 4.23s I looked at in indices reversed. Initially I found it tricky to find them but then I noticed the highest probability place to find them was heading into bubbles. And this makes me super wary of the fact my bear thesis could be spectacularly wrong. Because around about this zone Nasdaq was getting into a 4.23 - and this looked quite bubble-like. If I'd seen this in real time in the 4.23, I'd have thought that worth a fade. 1998. The Nasdaq did not make a high in 1998! 1998 was in fact a rather bad time to have a persistent bear thesis. But you could have made money. For a while there was a flux. During this you could have made some money. You'd just have to know when to stop doing that. Inside a thesis such as this, when there is a drop you always have to consider we might be in a spot something like this. From this move Nasdaq would go into a rally that literally changes the perspective of the chart. As you click through bar by bar the previous crash bars become hard to see. Nothing but up. Then sideways. Nothing but up. Then we're inside of the topping zone. If you didn't decide before the fact, where do you drop the bear thesis there? It's tough. Because the rally section would seem like a blow off. Then we go sideways. Which feels like the steam has ran out. Then we go into the real blow off. Where to close your short would be handled for you if you didn't - but it's hard to know when you'd flip bull there. For me, at least. Because I'd want to buy a crash move. And there really are not all that many of them. My style of trading is optimised for trading reversals (either of corrections or absolute) and steady and persistent pullback-less trends are trickier for me. I need to have a really good idea of where I'd want to switch to that style and my failure conditions (because all that momentum trading with no stops stuff isn't for me - I could not sleep at night - being someone who's benefited from so many major trend reversals and seeing how fast they happen). Looking through different examples of 4.23 breaks (which really are mostly found before bubble like moves or crashes if inverted) I have come to conclusion that the best thing to have done would have probably been to buy the low of the last crash before the bubble. Just buy the low before the bubble. That's it. Thanks for reading! Of course, on a more practical level - we actually have to try to do that. Now...if the break was coming, we'd maybe actually be AT that spot. I think to give the bearish 4.23 thesis its full fair chance we have to accept some sort of stop running above this recent high. Stuff like that is totally fail game. Even something a bit more spikey would be fine if it rejected. But if we trend up here, break highs and then continue to trend up, I really do think that would be the conditions where I would stop generating bear short levels. I'd switch my methods to generating bear risk areas but main using these for bullish trail/breakout decisions. I first came into indices in 2019 with my bear thesis on SPX. Which was spectacularly half right. But I'd forecast a two leg crash. Fortunately enough for me, when the high was broken I became disinterested in SPX and went back to Forex. Only setting an alert for the next big level, which triggered 2021. This is when I setup the "HoleyProfit" username. This period of time has been the best time to be a bear inside of my trading lifetime. But I believe if we're not somewhere deep inside the end game for this bull market we could head into conditions where if you trade flawlessly as a bear you can perhaps scrape breakeven eventually. Which are not good times to be a bear. They'd be good times to be a bull. If I don't think about this, we could have a move that looks like an obvious blow off in SPX to me. And ends up looking like this. Which I don't want to be short into. And realistically I'm not. I'd hit stops well before any of that madness affected me. But I don't want anyone who's followed my ideas and seen these having the big previous successes thinking it's a slam dunk sort of thing. I do believe if my bear thesis failed it would be spectacularly. I believe we're in a bubble. Whether we're late or mid bubble I am open minded to. Being mid bubble and being aware of it would be INCREDIBLE. Some people think I am determined to be a bear just because I want to be. I'd be happy with massively awesome markets. A trend one way or the other pay just as much to me. It's better to make money in conditions your broker and bank are not going out of business. I really don't mind being bullish. It's just sketchy doing it at major resistance levels with all the other weird confluences (like interest rate patterns etc). We are somewhat close to crux in this thesis. Hopefully you can easily understand how it's not practical to put a price on specifically but I do want to note that while I have plans to short different bull trap levels / spike outs on this rally - we are getting the point where my net thesis may be proven wrong on the large reversal. If that happens, my option and style will be become polar opposite. For me to continue to be bearish above the 4.23 would be me just wandering off into a jungle of random for trying to have an overall plan. And in fact, for me to not switch my bias from bear to hyper bullish on a 4.23 would be intellectually dishonest and directly fading the edges that the original idea bet on. Markets may make big reversals at major resistances, but if they break- can be much different. I wanted to be clear and thorough on this while while are still generally low. While I've discussed some different bear plans into a rally, it is also one of my considerations that this rally could end up spelling out the end of my bear thesis if we made new highs and were persistent. The net bear thesis will be right or wrong inside a specific zone. That zone is big and tricky to define, but it's specific. Specific in the fact that I'm saying we're specifically in that zone. There's potentially for setups that could take a lot of time to complete, but in terms of the zone and conditions what's accepted is getting narrower and narrower. It is entirely placeable within the next 6 months my entire macro swing bias will have changed. Or this might all just be the bull trap taking. We'll see how it goes.
SP:SPX
by holeyprofit
4
US500 Historical Rallies & Pullbacks with a Potential ProjectionI’ve observed the US500’s performance over the years, marking rallies with a blue line and pullbacks with a yellow line. Looking at the chart, a systematic repetition of these movements emerges, which, at first glance, seems to follow a recognizable pattern. Specifically, I’ve cloned the blue line from the rally that started on 03/23/2020 and ended on 12/20/2021, now represented by a green line, to hypothesize a potential future rally. This clone is based on the duration of previous pullbacks: The first pullback, before the 2020 rally, began on 02/20/2020 and ended on 03/23/2020. The second pullback, the current one, started on 02/17/2025 and might conclude around 04/07/2025, potentially paving the way for a new rally. the angle of those pullbacks is almost identic This "snapshot" observation suggests we could be nearing a turning point. Of course, this is just a hypothesis based on historical patterns, and I encourage cross-referencing it with other indicators or analyses. What are your thoughts?
PEPPERSTONE:US500Long
by albjantunaj
Buckle Up for the Next Part of the Huffy CycleAs everyone knows, indices move on a predictable 4 month cycle - known as the "Huffy cycle", and this is programmatically built into markets are Donald Trump switches from being "Huffy" (Down moves) to "Less Huffy" (Parabolic organic growth moves). Donald has been huffy lately ... so we ALL KNOW what comes next ...! Are you mentally prepared for the next glorious breakout of the Huffy cycle? I'm sure everyone has noticed the 4 month huffy cycle which can be extensively studied, understood and used to forecast the future flawlessly because if we look at markets over 12 months we can see it looks a little bit kinda like a pattern - so long as you just ignore or remove the parts that are not a pattern. Which is how market cycles work. If you see something a few times, you can be sure it will happen again forever. And if it doesn't you can be sure at worst it can only go down 70% and then it's probably a buy from there. So the huffy cycle is basically risk free, if you look at it in the right way. "But what about all the the things happening" I hear you ask. Lol. NGMI! If you're too stupid to understand the huffy cycle, that's your problem. Not mine! HFSP. Now, of course we all know SPX is not where near gambley for us to generate our birth right generational wealth from the markets. It could take literally YEARS to make money in SPX. Who has time for that? Of course, we want to be looking at the most stupid and speculative things we can - because those are the ones the savvy investors are buying. That's right folks .... "Squeeze season" is upon us. It's been 4 years since we seen anything make any truly irrational hyper parabolic moves in stocks. As we all know, this is too long. Stonks are not allowed to go this long without there being a squeeze cycle. Some doomers out there are even saying squeeze season has been cancelled (lmao ok boomer) - but we know the truth. Squeeze season has just BEEN DELAYED and it being delayed actually means it will just be BIGGER THAN EVER! I don't really have any logic or ideas to back up why it was delayed and why this means it will be an even bigger move, but if I say the word "Whales" I think that covers everything. There are some idiots who are sceptical of the huffy cycle, but I am only writing my post for the future billionaires who are not too bothered about checking the details. And we all know what comes next!!! WGMI, fam.
SP:SPXLong
by holeyprofit
27
SPX potentials for resistance & lowsI do dowsing & that's where I get my information from. I am expecting a move up tomorrow and then a high Wed./Thurs. with a reversal back down. I've had levels around the 5450 area even since September, as well as dates suggesting a return to prices even lower from around November/December 2023, which if you recall, was the start of this big run up. I'm only showing the more near term idea, because that's what seems more clear. The areas at the top are likely resistance in the near term. I'm not sure on timing for lows, but suspect something big in June/July. I have some potentially important dates including this Thursday, as well as April 18th, 23rd, June 2nd and twice I get July 14th as well.
SP:SPX
by JenRz
3
Is Trump Intentionally Crashing the Econ?I want to preface this by saying I'm a TA and this is just dinner table chat as far as I am concerned. I've no interest what-so-ever in why a market moves. All the money is made based on how it moves- and the TA is working great for that. Just sharing a theory that is floating about (It's not mine). The idea is Trump is intentionally crashing the markets in an attempt to reduce the debt burden on the US. This would work by this sequence of events; 1 - Markets crash. Making people who care about their money anxious and less eager to take risk in the stocks (etc) markets. 2 - This money moves to bonds. Pushing bond prices up. Rising bond prices push interest rates down. So crashing the econ can lead to lower interest rates. 3 - At a lower interest rate (say 2%) the US can refi its debt. Inside of this theory, everything we're seeing is part of a calculated plan to, literally, force stocks lower.
SP:SPXShort
by holeyprofit
23
So here’s what I’m doing: Not Panicking.This analysis is provided by Eden Bradfeld at BlackBull Research. Listen, the US has survived the depression of WWI, the Great Depression, the depression of WWII, oil shocks, the dot com bubble, the GFC, the COVID-sell off. It’ll likely survive this. In the scope of history, that $1 survived very well indeed. Panicking and running for the hills does not do so well. Winston Churchill was a great and flawed man but a terrible investor; he bought and sold shares prior to the 1929 crash in such speculative investments as mining companies, railways, and so on — most of them lost money (hence why Churchill continued to write at such a pace — to fund his Champagne-and-spec stock lifestyle). Hetty Green, on the other hand, (known as the “Queen of Wall Street”, managed to do very well her time — her quote? I buy when things are low and no one wants them. I keep them until they go up, and people are crazy to get them. Now, that’s something I can get behind. Nobody wanted Meta a few years ago. I wrote an internal memo, close to its plummet in ‘22 (it got to $99 or so a share!). I wrote this: ii) Yet what if we were to tell about about a company with this set of heuristics? Let’s call it “Company A” Company A has a 31% return on equity and a 20% return on capital. It has a net income margin of 37% and a FCF margin of 21% Its income has a compounded annual growth rate over the last 5 years of 41% If we add in numbers, now, let’s say the net income for 2020 was $29 billion, and $10 billion of that was used to repurchase stock from shareholders? Let’s say the unlevered FCF is around $6 billion per quarter, and let’s say the debt to equity ratio is about 9x. In other words, Company A is grows at a quick clip, and has done sustainably for the majority of its life. Its return on capital and return on equity would make any investor happy. Its FCF is an absolute machine. Would you buy Company A? Company A was Meta . You would’ve roughly made 4x or 5x’d your money if you’d bought around then. The point is, the fundamentals of a business matter, and right now there a quite a few exceptional businesses with good fundamentals trading at a good price. Alphabet (Google) trades at ~16x earnings. LVMH trades at ~18x earnings. And so on. Brown-Forman trades at ~15x earnings. These are all “inevitables” — Google will continue to be a dominant advertising platform, LVMH will continue to sell luxury, and Brown-Forman will continue to sell Jack Daniel’s and so on. I talked to my ma in the weekend. She is not really a share person. Her portfolio is a bunch of “inevitables”. It’s done very well. She said “aren’t you worried about this stock market?”, and I said “You love supermarket shopping, Mum. If you see something at a 25% discount you buy it. You come home, and you’re delighted that you found some mince on special²” She was like, “oh, that makes sense”. The problem is you have a lot of people looking at charts and catching worry that the world will end. The world, I am delighted to say, has a magnificent disposition to carry on.
SP:SPX
by BlackBull_Markets
2
If SPX Was to Make a Slow Topping PatternI've been super bearish indices for a while but heading into the 5000 area in SPX I am becoming increasingly bullish. I think in the extremely bearish setup we bounce to 5500 and if we are actually making a big major top, then it's viable we swipe at the highs a few times. Liquidity ... and all that. This could potentially be a long time of choppy action around the topping zone. If that's going to happen there's epic bear trades coming in the future but to prevent from becoming exhausted as a bear before they happened - you'd be wanting to bank in the rally. Have plans to pick up an assortment of bets on a new high being made within 3 months somewhere a little under 5100. And picking p spot longs at some point which I can trail stops on and wait to see if the bull trap levels fail. I do think at the very least the min risk bears have into 5000 is a 10% bull trap. I'd be very careful as a bear now.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by holeyprofit
1
Nasdaq and S&p500 short: Completion of B waveI mentioned in my previous analysis that we are waiting for a short (the previous one was a long-then-short linked with this idea). I did not post any short idea yesterday after that NOT because I am good and recognize a double combination. It's really because I was too busy with work and I am glad my last was a long-then-short. Back to this, remember that the huge volatility has caused the points in the chart to compress and thus even though the stop loss looks small, it is actually still quite a number of points away. So my suggestion is to manage your size and keep it small relative to your account. Good luck!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by yuchaosng
4
S&P500 vs Unemployment vs Yield CurveI'd be surprised if that was the bottom in equities. 10yr/2yr is still coming out of inversion which historically is followed by a recession and a decline in equities, and we have unemployment remaining stubbornly low with only one direction to go from current levels. Market selloffs usually mean investors lose money while main street loses jobs so we should start to see the unemployment rate begin to rise from here assuming that the tariff war isn't over. Trump proved today that he has no intention of relenting on the new tariffs; when China retaliated with 34% tariffs on US goods, he immediately hit them with 50% tariffs. Not sure which side will cave first, but as long as there is uncertainty around US/China trade the risk for further declines in equities remains. The previous two times the yield curve inverted, we saw 50%+ declines in equities and rising unemployment when the curve came out of inversion. There was also a short-lived inversion in 2019 with a spike in unemployment and falling equity prices due to Covid, but the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates to 0% and printing trillions of dollars kept that bear market short and sweet. We currently have a Federal Reserve that needs higher rates to fight inflation while at the same time we have a president who wants lower rates to stimulate growth. Catch-22 for the Fed: if they lower rates, they risk reigniting inflation. If they raise rates or keep them flat during a market decline it will speed up the decline in equities. Trump knows this which is why I don't think that the tariff war and market decline are over.
SP:SPXShort
by PrepForProfit
1