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24-Hour Short-Term Risk-on Risk-off Forecast for 30/10/2024Market sentiment appears to show mixed signals, with both risk-on and risk-off characteristics evident across various assets. Today’s sentiment leans towards mixed or cautious optimism, with selective risk-on trading tempered by defensive positioning amid global uncertainties. Investors are showing restrained enthusiasm for growth assets but continue to hedge in safe-havens due to unpredictable economic and geopolitical factors. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. The information provided is for general informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial or investment advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
TVC:SPX
by AfreeBit
S&P 500TREND ; The S&P 500 index is currently in an uptrend (Bullish), characterized by higher highs and higher lows since mid-August. PLAN : • The support zone around 5,670 acted as a base for a recent upward move. • The 5,870 level seems to be a key resistance area, and price is currently testing this level. • If the price breaks above the 5,870 resistance level, my potential target will be around 5,989.15. • Note that the blue arrow indicates the measured move from the support level at 5,750 up to the resistance at 5,870, which could imply the projected target if this breakout occurs.
BLACKBULL:SPX500
by juniormoseki1
Market dynamics and Fed's role - Trump Re-ElectionRecent polls and market predictions have fueled speculations of a potential re-election for former U.S. President Donald Trump, with investors eyeing so-called “Trump trades” — strategies that typically involve a stronger dollar, reduced interest rates, and a preference for U.S. stocks over international ones. While these investments appear to be gaining momentum, there are concerns among financial institutions that they may have already reached their peak, potentially limiting gains in the near future. However, a significant factor adding complexity to this landscape is the role of the Fed and its influence on economic performance through its monetary policies. The Fed’s recent rate cuts, inflation control, and employment policies could have a decisive impact on both “Trump trades” and broader market stability. The Fed’s Dual Mandate: Inflation Control and Full Employment The U.S. Federal Reserve operates with a dual mandate: to maintain an annual inflation rate of 2% as measured by the Consumer Price Index and to sustain full employment, although it doesn’t set a specific target for the unemployment rate. When the CPI strays too far from the 2% goal, or if there are dramatic shifts in employment, the Fed adjusts the federal funds rate to influence economic conditions. In 2022, the CPI hit a 40-year high of 8%, prompting a swift response from the Fed. Contributing factors included the trillions of dollars injected into the economy during 2020 and 2021 to offset the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, near-zero interest rates, and quantitative easing measures that flooded the financial system with liquidity. In response, the Fed raised the federal funds rate to 5.33%, marking a two-decade high. This aggressive policy adjustment has since helped bring the CPI down to an annualized rate of 2.4% as of September 2024, aligning closer to the Fed’s target. September Rate Cut and Market Expectations for November In light of these trends, the Federal Open Market Committee at the Fed decided to cut the federal funds rate by half a percentage point in its September meeting. The upcoming FOMC meeting scheduled for early November raises the question of whether another rate cut could be imminent. Given that inflation is trending toward the 2% target, a further rate cut seems likely. Moreover, with the unemployment rate climbing from 3.7% to 4.1% this year, there are signs of potential weakening in the job market, reinforcing the need for the Fed to support economic growth before further job losses occur. Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated that the downside risks to employment have increased, which might justify additional rate reductions. According to the FOMC’s September projections, there could be another 50 basis points of cuts before year’s end. With only November and December meetings remaining, most predictions suggest two 25-basis-point cuts in each session. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool reflects a 95% probability of a 25-basis-point cut next week, with a 78% likelihood of a similar cut in December. Impact of Rate Cuts on Trump Trades and Broader Markets These potential rate cuts have mixed implications for "Trump trades." Lower interest rates can benefit U.S. stocks in the long run by reducing borrowing costs for businesses, boosting their capacity for growth, and increasing consumer spending power. This environment would likely favor sectors central to “Trump trades” — primarily energy, finance, and certain defensive industries — especially if Trump secures re-election. On the other hand, if Harris wins, analysts anticipate a more balanced international investment landscape, which could weaken the dollar and shift investment attractiveness from U.S. to international stocks. Harris’s policies, expected to support environmentally friendly sectors and lessen trade tensions, may also benefit industries outside the U.S., including healthcare and manufacturing. Long-Term Rate Cuts and Economic Growth Outlook Looking beyond this year, the FOMC’s forecast indicates the possibility of an additional 125 basis points of cuts in 2025, with a final 25-basis-point cut in 2026. If realized, this would bring the federal funds rate to approximately 2.88%, nearly halving it from its recent peak. Historically, such reductions support stock markets, enhancing growth across various sectors by enabling corporations to expand with cheaper credit and improve profitability with lower interest costs. Still, investors remain cautious. Rate cuts are favorable for stocks only when economic conditions are stable. If further unemployment spikes indicate deeper economic challenges, investors could pull back, particularly from “Trump trades,” opting for safer assets amid heightened uncertainty. Preparing for Market Adjustments Based on Election Outcomes As the November elections draw near, markets remain highly sensitive to both political forecasts and the Fed’s rate decisions. While “Trump trades” show ongoing upward momentum, the potential for an investment realignment looms based on the election outcome. Investors are preparing for scenarios under both Trump and Harris, each with profound implications for the U.S. and global economy. In either case, the Fed’s monetary policy — and its influence over inflation and employment — will be crucial in shaping the investment landscape for the coming years.
SP:SPXLong
by kgougakis
SPX500 H4 | Falling to 38.2% Fibonacci supportSPX500 is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 5,807.01 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 5,760.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 23.6% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. Take profit is at 5,881.22 which is a swing-high resistance close to the all-time high. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:SPX500Long
by FXCM
S&P 500 Remains Bullish Amid Suring Interest RatesThe S&P 500 experienced a turbulent week, dipping below several short-term trend-defining levels as markets reacted to heightened bond yields and shifting rate expectations. Despite the volatility, the overall trend remains bullish as long as the index stays above the critical support level of $5,760. The primary value area begins at $5,797, with initial resistance at $5,876 and a secondary target at $5,950. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
SLong
by ThinkMarkets
ALL STAR EARNINGS WEEK! Option Market pricing a 1.8% move/wkALL STAR EARNINGS WEEK! Option Market pricing a 1.8% move/wk Key earnings this week : Tuesday: Alphabet after close Visa Wednesday: Microsoft After close Meta Thursday: Amazon After close Apple Economic Calendar key events this week : Tuesday: 10:00 am Consumer confidence Wednesday: 8:30 am GDP Thursday: 8:30 am PCE index 8:30 am PCE (year-over-year) 8:30 am Core PCE index 8:30 am Core PCE (year-over-year) 8:30 am Initial jobless claims Friday: 8:30 am U.S. employment report As well of End of Month and Elections following Tuesday on Nov 5. Volatile week equals opportunity for day traders. Stay Frosty!
SP:SPX
by Beyond_Charts
$SPX The Hundred Years TrendThat's right.. The sheep were told we broke through the great depression trendline and to prepare themselves for a new paradigm.. As you can see we have broken through one of the great depression trendlines. And Still you can see we have one to go.. Our last touch of this trendline ended up with a stiff rejection, and we are dangerously close to another fatal kiss. If you haven't taken out a heavy long term short to cover life's everything, it might be too late. Only the strong will survive. Are you Strong?
SP:SPXShort
by Midgar-
Scinarios for $SPX till the election year ends Bearish daily candle on Friday 25th Oct but watching RSI signals its showing some support to the up-trend line from Aug low . This setup suggested continuation upward trend up to next week and election week then signal can be more clear!. Above 5855 is bulish entry and below 8750 is bearish one. 6000 target still valid but i will recommend 5920 to take profit for downplay 5640 is last support which is related to FED pivot cutting . good luck
SP:SPXLong
by WinnerTrader99
S&P500 Long: Melt upI have been calling for shorts recently almost like a permabear. However the recent move up made me realize that odds have changed. The truth is, when I'm wrong, it's usually super profitable to flip side. Meaning, this is potentially a melt up coming. What this means is that the move from 5th Aug low to 17th Oct high is just a wave 1 and the recent shallow move down is a wave 2. And now we may be going into a wave 3. Stay cautious. A new all time high will confirm this.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by yuchaosng
6
SPX500USD Is Bullish! Buy! Please, check our technical outlook for SPX500USD. Time Frame: 8h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is on a crucial zone of demand 5,836.4. The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 5,891.1 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SignalProvider
1
SPX: Liquidity Zone Breakout or Support Breakdown AheadTechnical Analysis: The price is testing the support line after pulling back from the liquidity zone around 5,863. If the price holds above the pivot line and breaks the liquidity zone, it could rally toward 5,939. A failure to hold the support line could lead to a bearish move, with potential targets at 5,781 and 5,732. Watch for confirmation at the liquidity zone for a bullish breakout or breakdown from the support line for further downside movement. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5832 Resistance Levels: 5863, 5891, 5939 Support Levels: 5803, 5781, 5732 Trend Outlook: Bearish below 5832 Bullish above 5832
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
The bulls need to reclaim 5815! Structurally, the SPX has printed a higher low compared to the previous day, with the weekly low at 5863 and the higher low at 5785. A break below 5800 opens the door to 5785; a break below 5785, implies an outside day with major support at 5765/5760. If bulls cannot reclaim the 5815/5825 zone, this would be interpreted as a backtest of the breakdown zone from Wednesday. Dealer Gamma remains more neutral than imbalanced, but flows are destabilizing. There is potential for significant directional or flash moves as dealers chase deltas, selling weakness and buying strength. Since VIX remains elevated, 19 and the Volatility Risk Premium (VRP) is at a premium, implied volatility could be an exacerbating factor in both directions. The upside is heavily dependent on a vol down environment. A reclaim of the 5815 Flip (dealer transition) often attracts volatility sellers, which could trigger a sharp upside squeeze. Vol crush Friday?
SP:SPX
by 0dteTraders
SPX500/US500 "Standard & Poor" Money Heist Plan on Bearish SideOla! Ola! My Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, 🤑💰 This is our master plan to Heist SPX500/US500 "Standard & Poor" Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Short entry. Our target is Green Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is oversold / Consolidation / Trend Reversal / Trap at the level Bullish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich 💰. Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Sell Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Swing High Stop Loss 🛑: Recent Swing High using 1h timeframe Attention for Scalpers : If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money 💰. Warning : Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️ comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update. Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target. Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style. Stay tuned with me and see you again with another Heist Plan..... 🫂
PEPPERSTONE:US500Short
by Thief_Trader
Are Stocks Topping for Now?The S&P 500 has had a dramatic run, with gains in the last six weeks and 10 of the last 11 months. But will the run continue? The first pattern on today’s chart is last week’s low around 5804. The index crossed under it and stayed there yesterday, producing a lower low on the weekly chart. Ending the week below that level could resemble moments like late-July or early April, when pullbacks followed. Second, the index got rejected at or near highs on October 15 and 17. Those solid candles (marked with white arrows) may reflect selling pressures. MACD also turned lower and prices closed below the 8-day exponential moving average, which could suggest momentum is slowing. Next, the Nasdaq-100 stalled below its July peak. Does that reflect exhaustion among the biggest stocks in the market? This lethargic price action in the big growth names contrasts with Treasury yields pushing higher. That may also be a risk to equities and risk assets in general. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
SP:SPX
by TradeStation
SPX to turnaround?US500 - 24h expiry Broken out of the wedge to the downside. The formation has a measured move target of 5773. An overnight positive theme in Equities has led to a higher open this morning. Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile. The sequence for trading is lower lows and highs. We look to Sell at 5847 (stop at 5865) Our profit targets will be 5802 and 5792 Resistance: 5845 / 5847 / 5857 Support: 5815 / 5800 / 5785 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by OANDA