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S&P 500 Technical Analysis: Market Reaction to Fed Rate DecisionS&P 500 Technical Analysis The Fed Rate Decision is Coming Today! The market is expected to be volatile due to the Fed’s rate decision, with a potential decrease of 25 basis points. As mentioned earlier this week, the S&P 500 has been following a bullish trend, pushing up from 6022. Today, the index is likely to attempt to reach 6099. If it successfully breaks above 6100, it would confirm a bullish zone, with the potential to climb further toward 6143, especially if the Fed reduces rates by 25 bps. On the other hand, failure to maintain momentum above 6099 could result in the index trading between 6099 and 6022. A bearish trend could begin if 6099 is broken on the downside. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 6099 Resistance Levels: 6143, 6166, 6190 Support Levels: 6058, 6022, 5971 Trend Outlook: Upward Trend: Above 6099 Downward Trend: Below 6022 previous idea:
OANDA:SPX500USD
by SroshMayi
S&P500 hit the MA50 (1d). Huge buy signal.S&P500 hit today its MA50 (1d) following the Fed Rate announcement. At the same time, it is testing the bottom of August's Channel Up. As long as it closes daily inside the pattern, this is a strong buy opportunity. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the current market price. Targets: 1. 6200 (+5.75% rise similar to the previous one). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) hit its 3 month Support Zone. If it reverses on it, that might be an even better signal for a buy entry. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingBrokersView
2
us500 Longus500 Long 💎Please don't be greedy ENTRY : yellow point TP : blue lines SL : below red line for LONG position above red line for SHORT position ⛔️INSTRUCTIONS 1: Please respect the yellow entry point, otherwise you risk entering too early before my strategy or too far, thus reducing gains and aggravating losses in the event of a stop loss ⛔️INSTRUCTIONS 2: For risk and money management: 5% of your wallet for LEV X ≤20 And 3% of your wallet for LEV X ≥ 20
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by RODDYTRADING
[GEX] 12/16 Weekly SPX AnalysisNow, let’s take a look at the expected SPX trading range for the week based on the auto GEX levels for TradingView: It’s clear that we’re currently in positive gamma territory , primarily due to the December 20 expiration. However, the mid-week expirations leading up to that date remain in negative gamma territory, a direct result of last week’s bearish moves—though this can change within a single day. Looking ahead to Friday, we expect a range-bound, more predictable trading environment, likely holding above 6045 and below 6100 based on current levels. IVR and IVx remain low, and we don’t anticipate any increase before Christmas unless the market reaches the “total deny zone” between 6025 and 6040. The greatest IV backwardation is present between December 20 and December 23, as average IV ticked up slightly following last week’s bearish action. This makes that particular expiration combination potentially appealing for time spread strategies. Stay alert! The deny zone is near, and a quick move through the HVL could suddenly disrupt what currently appears to be a relatively predictable trading range. Conversely, a breakout above 6100 could spark a permabull end-of-year rally to the upside.
SPREADEX:SPX
by TanukiTrade
2
Collapse of the S&P! Can it hold? S&P 500 www.tradingview.com Drops to 6000 : Just as We Predicted The S&P 500 has hit the 6000 level, right in line with the scenario we discussed earlier. This critical support, reinforced by the 200-period moving average on the hourly chart, is proving to be a key battleground. If you’ve been following our previous idea, you’ll remember we anticipated this pullback to 6000, calling it a likely turning point for the index forming a head and shoulders pattern And here we are, watching the prediction unfold. A bounce here could break the head and shoulders. Now, the big question is whether 6000 will hold. If it does, we could see a rebound toward 6100 or beyond. If it breaks, 5900 or 5800 could be the next stops. Either way, this moment underscores how crucial strong analysis is for navigating markets like this one. Fed announcements may play a role in rhe direction we go. Let's see how it plays out.
SP:SPXShort
by StonkMarketParty
(GET READY) Expected move for FOMC today in SPXSince making all-time highs on December 6, SPX has been consolidating back to the 30 minute 200 moving average and check out the 35 EMA today. We’ve been chopping around that 35 EMA on our trip back to the 30 minute 200MA average and they are right at the same level today. We are at a very critical point. Do we bounce here? Or do we break this 30 minute 200 moving average. The top of the implied move is at 6095 just underneath that we have a resistance at 6085 when we fill that gap 6015 for tomorrow so 6095, 6115 could be a place to look if you’re looking to sell spreads today on the move And then underneath us 6005, 5995 those are the two levels at the bottom of the trading range and the one hour 200 average is also there
SP:SPX
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
S&P 500 - Forming a Bullish Flag or Pennant but not clear. Top?The S&P 500 appears to be moving very horizontal at the moment, possibly forming a bullish flag or pennant. However, the pattern is a little too horizontal to be clear, so its also possible this is a short term top of the market, possibly for end of the year profit taking and covering tax liabilities. A look back in the last 10 years of chart history does not show another example of the S&P 500 moving this clearly horizontal. The pattern has clear lower highs but the support line is razor sharp almost as if its artificial. Trade with caution.
SP:SPX
by swineninety9
How to Trade Lower Liquidity Festive MarketsWith the festive season upon us, there tends to be a natural decline in trading activity as many market participants step away to enjoy the holidays. This change in rhythm creates unique market dynamics, offering traders an opportunity to observe and adapt to a different set of conditions. Liquidity often decreases during this time, which can influence price behaviour, spreads, and volatility. Understanding these shifts can help you approach the markets with greater awareness and flexibility, whether you decide to trade actively or simply observe from the sidelines. What Happens in Lower Liquidity Markets? Lower liquidity means there are fewer buyers and sellers actively participating in the market. As a result, price movements can become less predictable. Even a relatively small order can cause larger-than-expected moves, creating the potential for heightened volatility. Spreads—particularly in less-traded instruments—may also widen, increasing transaction costs. This is something to keep an eye on, especially if you trade in smaller-cap stocks, emerging market currencies, or commodities with seasonal demand swings. However, it’s not all about increased volatility and wider spreads. Lower liquidity can also bring periods of calm to typically active markets, especially in the absence of major news or data releases. Adapting to the Festive Markets The key to navigating festive markets is adaptability. Here are some practical tips to help you stay on top of your trading this Christmas: 1. Focus on Major Markets and Instruments During periods of reduced liquidity, larger markets like major currency pairs or blue-chip stocks tend to remain more stable than smaller, niche instruments. Staying with these higher-liquidity markets can reduce the risk of unexpected price swings. 2. Be Selective with Trades The festive season isn’t the time to chase every opportunity. Instead, focus on high-quality setups and avoid overtrading. Patience can be your biggest asset when market conditions are unpredictable. 3. Adjust Your Risk Management Lower liquidity markets can lead to greater volatility, which means a single price move might reach your stop-loss or take-profit levels more quickly than expected. Consider adjusting your position sizes or widening your stop-loss levels to account for this. That said, any changes to your risk management approach should align with your overall trading strategy. 4. Keep an Eye on Key Levels In quieter markets, price tends to gravitate towards well-defined support and resistance levels. These levels often become even more significant, as fewer participants can break through them. 5. Pay Attention to News Events Even during the festive season, economic data releases and news events can spark movement. With fewer participants, the impact of these events may be amplified, so it’s worth staying informed. Useful Indicators for Festive Markets Using technical indicators can provide added clarity in lower liquidity conditions. Here are some tools to consider: • ATR (Average True Range): ATR can help you gauge market volatility. During low-liquidity periods, rising ATR values may signal increased volatility, while falling ATR values might indicate a quieter market. • Volume: Monitoring volume is crucial to understand the strength of price moves. During the festive period, lower volume is expected, but an unusual spike can indicate genuine interest in a breakout or trend. • Anchored VWAP: Anchored VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) is a helpful tool for identifying key levels where trading volume has concentrated. Anchoring the VWAP to significant events, such as the start of the festive trading period, can provide dynamic support or resistance levels. • Keltner Channels: These are particularly useful for managing trades. Setting Keltner Channels to 2.5 ATR around a 20-day exponential moving average (standard settings) can help identify overextended moves. For instance, if the price breaks above the upper channel in a long trade, it may be a good signal to take profits into strength. Example: S&P 500 On the S&P 500, we can observe some classic festive market behaviour. While daily volume has remained steady, ATR has been declining since Thanksgiving, dropping to levels not seen since the summer. This suggests the market is consolidating near broken resistance—a key level—aligned with the Keltner Channel’s basis. Just below this area lies the VWAP anchored to the November swing low, creating a zone of confluent support that could attract higher levels of liquidity. S&P 500 Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Summary: The festive season introduces a unique set of market conditions that can challenge even experienced traders. Whether you choose to trade actively or observe from the sidelines, understanding how reduced liquidity affects price behaviour is key to navigating these quieter markets. By focusing on major instruments, refining your risk management, and leveraging key technical indicators like ATR, volume, Anchored VWAP, and Keltner Channels, you can adapt to the rhythm of the season and make the most of what the markets offer during this period. Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.67% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CAPITALCOM:US500Education
by Capitalcom
SANTA RALLY or BUST (FOMC)Market is likely to move the first hour and then become choppy. FOMC today at 2PM est and Powell speaks at 2:30. Semis look like they want to start moving with NVDA and ASML leading. Futures gapping a bit higher this morning, FOMC today so I’d wait until after 2:30pm to see how the market reacts to Powell SPX just in a range from 6034-6100 for now, SPX lots of resistance at 6071 and 6100 so be patient for now, under 6034 can test 6k. Let’s see if SPX gets through 6071 after FOMC SPX best to hold 6034 SPX Dec 20 6100c best above 6071 Stay Frosty!
SP:SPX
by Beyond_Charts
SPX 5500 BY 2025 ? REASONS WHY !!! Optimistic Market Forecasts: Analysts and strategists, such as those from Deutsche Bank and Infrastructure Capital Advisors CEO, have made bullish predictions for the S&P 500. Deutsche Bank's forecast for the S&P 500 to reach 5,100 in 2024, and Infrastructure Capital Advisors CEO Jay Hatfield anticipates the S&P to reach as high as 5,500 points by the end of 2024. These forecasts indicate a strong belief in the market's potential to continue its upward trend. Strong Earnings and Valuations: The trailing 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 of 25.7 is above the 5-year and 10-year averages. This suggests that investors are willing to pay a premium for stocks, which could be a positive sign for further market growth. Historical Performance: The S&P 500 has already hit 23 new records in 2024 and has been performing above average historical years. This indicates strong market momentum and investor confidence. Cumulative Weight of Top Stocks: The cumulative weight of the top 5 stocks in the S&P 500 has hit a 50-year high. This indicates that the market's performance is being significantly influenced by the performance of a small number of large-cap companies, which could potentially drive the index higher if these companies continue to perform well. Market Resilience and Recovery: The market has shown resilience and recovery from the economic downturn, with the S&P 500 already up by 9.6% this year, which is above the average year since 1950. This resilience could be a sign of continued growth throughout the year. Positive Outlook from Analysts: Analysts like CFRA Chief Investment Strategist Sam Stovall predict that the S&P 500 will hit 5,400 by year-end and 5,610 within the next 12 months, indicating a positive outlook for the market's performance. Potential Rate Cuts: The expectation of rate cuts by the European Central Bank could provide a boost to the global economy and the U.S. markets, including the S&P 500. Positive Market Sentiment: The overall market sentiment seems to be positive, with a bullish outlook on the S&P 500 from various analysts and strategists. This positive sentiment could drive further investment and growth in the market. Technology Sector Performance: The technology sector has been a leading performer, soaring 50%, indicating strong growth in this sector, which could help drive the S&P 500 higher. Economic Data Surprises: The U.S. economy has been showing positive surprises in economic data throughout 2023, suggesting that the economy is stronger than expected, which could support the market's growth.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by NYRUNSGLOBAL
SPX 4800 LONG SANTA RALLY UNTIL 2024 Key Factors to Consider: Economic Indicators: Monitor key economic indicators such as GDP growth, employment data, and inflation. Positive economic data may support the upward movement of the S&P 500, while negative indicators could lead to volatility. Interest Rates: Changes in interest rates can impact the cost of borrowing and influence investor behavior. Keep an eye on central bank announcements and monetary policy changes. Corporate Earnings: Earnings season can significantly affect the S&P 500. Track corporate earnings reports for insights into the health of individual companies and the overall market. Geopolitical Events: Geopolitical developments, such as trade tensions or political instability, can impact market sentiment. Stay informed about global events that could affect the S&P 500.
SPREADEX:SPXLong
by NYRUNSGLOBAL
S&P 500 - sidewaysUS stock indices finished lower on Tuesday with the broad-based, domestically-focused Russell 2000 leading the decline. The Russell represents US mid-to-smaller-cap stocks, and closed down 1.2%. It has now lost over 5% since making a fresh all-time high three weeks ago, after rallying 11% in the aftermath of Trump’s election victory in early November. The Dow has dropped around 3.5% from its own record high in early December. Yesterday’s loss meant that the old school, price-weighted index has registered nine successive losing sessions, its worst run in over six years. In contrast, the S&P 500 continues to consolidate just below all-time highs, while the NASDAQ 100 posted its own record high on Monday. Tech stocks continue to garner investor interest, despite their considerable outperformance in 2024. This morning, Tesla dropped 3%, pulling back a touch from its own all-time high hit on Monday. This followed news that the EV giant’s Shanghai plant manager is leaving the company. In contrast, NVIDIA jumped 3%, bouncing off the nine week low hit yesterday. Longer term US Treasury yields continue to creep up. The yield on the 10-year is back to a fresh four week high, above 4.40% and closing in on the potentially problematic level above 4.50%. This level could prove to be a headwind for equities. Bond yields will be in sharp focus this evening as the Federal Reserve announces its final rate decision of the year. The consensus expectation is that the Fed’s FOMC will cut by 25 basis points, taking the Fed Funds rate to 4.50% for a total 100 basis points-worth of rate cuts this year, beginning in September. But likely of greater importance will be the FOMC’s quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) where members give their forecasts for GDP growth, unemployment, inflation and the Fed Funds rate for next year and beyond. This will provide a set of guidelines for investors who currently predict just 50 basis points of additional cuts in 2025. Contrast this with September’s SEP when the FOMC forecast 100 basis points-worth of cuts next year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will also host a press conference which will be of great interest to market participants. The prevailing view is that the Fed will accompany the rate cut with hawkish comments, indicating that it’s time to take a pause in loosening monetary policy. This seems wise, given the incoming Trump administration, the recent uptick in inflation, decent US economic growth and the strength of the US stock market.
TRADENATIONSB:US500
by TradeNation