US500 trade ideas
Part 3 – Dynamic Continuation Trading
In our series on intra-day trading strategies, we’ve explored approaches suited to quick market moves and breakout scenarios. Now, let’s dive into dynamic continuation trading, a method that seeks to trade in-lie with the days dominant trend.
Unlike strategies built around short bursts of momentum, dynamic continuation trading is all about capturing the rhythm of an established trend by entering on controlled pullbacks and aiming to stay in as the trend develops. The method brings a mix of patience, technical indicators, and timing into play, making it ideal for those looking to ride intra-day trends longer than they might with other strategies.
Good Things Come to Those Who Wait
Dynamic continuation trading rewards requires plenty of patience. It’s a method where your patience can make a difference between capturing a trending move with attractive levels of risk/reward or getting caught in a reversal.
This style of trading requires you to have enough patience identify an established trend. Then, there’s waiting for a pullback, ideally to a dynamic support area, which provides an entry point with favourable risk-to-reward potential.
And the patience doesn’t end there. As the trade moves in your favour, this approach also calls for a patient, steady hand in trade management. It’s not about taking quick profits but rather about letting the trade develop. That’s where using a trailing stop helps keep you aligned with the trend, locking in profits as the price moves while staying in the trade until the momentum naturally slows down.
Dynamic Trend Continuation on the 5-Minute Chart
In dynamic continuation trading, the 5-minute chart is your stage. Here’s a breakdown of how the 9 EMA, 21 EMA, and RSI can guide entries, stops, and exits.
1. Establish the Trend with the 9 EMA and 21 EMA
For an uptrend, look for the 9 EMA to be positioned above the 21 EMA. Additionally, ensure there’s a visible intra-day uptrend in place, characterised by higher swing highs and higher swing lows. This setup confirms that the market is favouring bullish momentum, and the trend is primed for continuation.
2. Wait for the Pullback
Once you see an established trend, wait for a pullback to the zone between the 9 EMA and 21 EMA. This EMA zone serves as dynamic support, giving you a lower-risk entry point aligned with the trend’s direction. At this point, check the RSI for additional confirmation.
3. Use RSI as an Entry Signal
During the pullback, the RSI should ideally dip towards the 50 level, which indicates that momentum has temporarily slowed without turning bearish. Once the RSI begins to move back above 50, this signals a resumption of momentum in the direction of the trend. Enter your trade when the RSI crosses back above 50, signalling that the pullback is ending and the trend is ready to continue.
Example: S&P 500
In this example, the S&P 500 begins to establish an uptrend with the 9 EMA above the 21 EMA, and prices form a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The price then consolidates and pulls back toward the moving averages, with the RSI also pulling back toward the 50 area. This signals that the uptrend is likely to continue, and we enter the trade.
S&P 500 5min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Trade Management & Stop Placement
The swing high or low that forms following the pullback serves as ideal area for initial stop placement. Stops should be placed just above or below these inflection points to minimize risk if the trend reverses unexpectedly.
In terms of managing the trade, the goal is to let the trend naturally unfold rather than micromanaging every move. A more passive approach allows for potential gains as the trend continues, with the 21 EMA acting as a dynamic guide for trailing stops. This moving average offers a reasonable “buffer zone” for staying in the trade while avoiding minor retracements that are common within trends.
As price moves in your favour, adjust your stop to follow the 21 EMA. By doing so, you’re locking in profits as the trend progresses while allowing room for the price to ebb and flow around the moving average. This approach aligns with the trend’s rhythm, helping you capture the trend’s full potential without being forced out by temporary pullbacks.
Bringing It All Together: How Parts 1, 2, and 3 Complement Each Other
With this series, we’ve covered strategies for different market conditions, equipping you with a diverse toolkit for intra-day trading.
Part 1 focused on quick-reaction trades in tight ranges, ideal for capturing small moves in low-volatility environments. Part 2 explored breakout momentum, which helps you engage with rapid moves following consolidation. Now, with Part 3, dynamic continuation trading provides a strategy for trending markets, helping you align with sustained price movement.
By combining these three approaches, you’re prepared to trade various market states, from range-bound to breakout to trending. This versatility not only enhances your ability to respond to changing conditions but also positions you as a more adaptable trader, ready to take advantage of the unique opportunities each market environment presents.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
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charts breakdownMarket Overview: The has been trading within a over the past . Currently, we’re seeing significant activity around the level at , which has been tested multiple times. Volume analysis indicates activity, suggesting .
Key Technical Levels:
Resistance Level: – This has acted as a cap for recent upward moves.
Support Level: – A key area where buyers have historically stepped in, providing support.
Trendline Support/Resistance: .
Moving Averages: – Currently, the price is trading these averages, indicating momentum.
Technical Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently at , suggesting conditions. This could imply that the market may soon .
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
Volume Profile: Volume is near the level, indicating .
Potential Trade Setups:
Breakout Trade (if price breaches resistance): Consider entering a long position if the price closes above . A stop-loss could be set below , targeting .
Reversal Trade (if price approaches support): A potential long position near , with a tight stop-loss just below, targeting a return to .
Mean Reversion Strategy: With RSI nearing overbought/oversold levels, there’s potential for a pullback towards the mean, particularly if price encounters a strong resistance/support area.
Risk Management:
Use a stop-loss on each trade.
Given recent volatility, consider a wider stop-loss to avoid whipsaw action but still within reasonable risk parameters.
Adjust position sizes based on volatility and adherence to trading rules.
Conclusion: The shows momentum with key support and resistance levels identified. Traders may find potential opportunities based on setups. Monitoring volume and price action closely at these levels will be crucial to confirming any trade entries.
Stocks, BTC & Gold .. my view! Price action after Donald Trumps win shows us the following:
1. Market (Stocks) are in a risk ON mode
2. BTC is following stocks and is also in a risk ON mode
3. Gold is going back to its historical safe haven status or risk OFF mode
So IMHO market is pulling out money from Gold and investing in Stocks and Crypto.
IF my observation and logic is correct then should there be a retracement in Stocks then you will see a correction in Crypto and rebound in Gold
In the picture you can observe a comparison between S&P and BTC. And you know gold has been going in the other direction.
What if.....I was just trolling but I kinda like it.
Its making me type stuff for me to post this idea. Lets see how many words it needs
SPX500 TREND LINES, PIVOT and APEX POINT VIEWThe SPX500 if manage to close above the last high of 5670 on Daily TF then expect the price to hit the TL.R at 5764 from where the prices can fall back a bit and then move for the next target to TL.B2 at 5810 and if it closes above that point then you can expect the price to move to take over the PIVOT R3 at 61110, but if it is rejected then expect the price to fall towards PIVOT R2. Trend Line green and TL.R form a widening channel. If the price fall back the TL.B1 and Closes Below Pivot R2, then Expect the price bounce from the Trend line green. The main scenario of the price action shows that if the price is not rejected from the previous high of 5670, then price will surely lead to take over the TL.R and TL.B2. On Contrary if price rejected sharply from the TL.B2 and closes below PIVOT R2, then price may continue to fall towards PIVOT R1. Please leave your comments and your suggestions. Expected Movement for the rest of the year will be in between the two apex points 5410 and 5747. Any Voilation of these points will determine the further direction of the SPX price movement.
SPX500 TREND LINES AND PIVOT POINT VIEWThe SPX500 if manage to close above the last high of 5670 on Daily TF then expect the price to hit the TL.R at 5764 from where the prices can fall back a bit and then move for the next target to TL.B2 at 5810 and if it closes above that point then you can expect the price to move to take over the PIVOT R3 at 61110, but if it is rejected then expect the price to fall towards PIVOT R2. Trend Line green and TL.R form a widening channel. If the price fall back the TL.B1 and Closes Below Pivot R2, then Expect the price bounce from the Trend line green. The main scenario of the price action shows that if the price is not rejected from the previous high of 5670, then price will surely lead to take over the TL.R and TL.B2. On Contrary if price rejected sharply from the TL.B2 and closes below PIVOT R2, then price may continue to fall towards PIVOT R1. Please leave your comments and your suggestions.
Prepare for Breakout Towards 6100 Next Week
The S&P 500 has been on a strong upward trajectory, recently surpassing the
significant psychological level of 6000 for the first time. The index has seen a
remarkable rally post-election, fueled by investor optimism and solid corporate
earnings reports. Currently, it sits approximately 31.5% higher from its
previous lows, creating an atmosphere of bullish sentiment across the market.
Key Actionable Insights and Takeaways Specific to S&P 500
- The index is currently testing major resistance levels around 601 to 612,
which could dictate the next move for the bulls.
- Watch for pullback opportunities to key support levels around 596 and 588,
which can present buying opportunities.
- Maintain a balanced approach by being prepared for potential volatility as we
approach critical zones.
Summary of Expert Opinions on S&P 500
Experts are bullish on the S&P 500's potential for continued upward movement.
The recent Federal Reserve interest rate cut and favorable post-election
sentiment have contributed to a generally positive outlook. However, caution
remains due to the potential for market corrections and external economic
pressures, particularly inflation.
Based on the wisdom of all professional traders
- Target 1: 6010 (short-term target indicating strong resistance)
- Target 2: 6100 (longer-term bullish target)
- Stop 1: 596 (to manage risk on potential pullbacks)
- Stop 2: 588 (additional level of support to monitor)
Notable News or Events Affecting S&P 500
The S&P 500's recent rally has been closely tied to the U.S. presidential
election results, which have stabilized market sentiment by reducing
uncertainties. Additionally, expectations of continued fiscal stimulus and
corporate tax cuts under the new administration contribute to positive market
dynamics.
Few more push up before the dropFeeling will go about 6200 or around almost 6300
The buy is still strong; not far to hit the ceiling
a two year bull market. what has changed?its been 756 days since the bottom in the s&p500. the weekly is on an extended bull run to the 6000 region. last week has been the biggest drop in volatility in this trend.
large risk on weeks come with pullbacks, but this week hasnt bearishly diverged from the trend yet.
fib time zone tells us the trend hasnt reached a local maximum yet. the general trend hasnt changed since monday may 15 2023.
since signal hasnt changed i wouldnt try to short this market yet.
a breach of this dopen would probably lead to a pullback around pmVAH, and i would look to do this by ftz 13. still a local bear move toward the 5800 region isnt unthinkable.
i would still rely on this broader market move setting higher weekly lows and vreaking to new all time highs for the foreseeable future, which is why im leaning long here, even with the advanced age of this bull market (even post election).
Scinarios for $SPX till the election year ends Bearish daily candle on Friday 25th Oct but watching RSI signals its showing some support to the up-trend line from Aug low . This setup suggested continuation upward trend up to next week and election week then signal can be more clear!.
Above 5855 is bulish entry and below 8750 is bearish one.
6000 target still valid but i will recommend 5920 to take profit
for downplay 5640 is last support which is related to FED pivot cutting . good luck
SP500 double GapCould we see SP500 in the 5800 prices in the upcoming days or this double gap will be closed in months or weeks?
Always do your research
S&P doesn't matterThe time is coming soon but when and at which price will be turned back maybe it is an opportunity to make lots of money hehe, let's wait for the price action and ride a wave hehe I am gonna be a rich person
SPX will reach 6000Stocks are going hyperbolic, not because of a healthy economy but because of unbounded inflation and QE infinity. 1929 will look like a firecracker when this explodes.
S&P500 (SPX500) index looks testing upper trend channelS&P500 index looks testing upper trend channel
This is a very long log charts of the S&P500 index.
S&P500 (SPX500) index looks testing upper trend channelS&P500 index looks testing upper trend channel
This is a very long log charts of the S&P500 index.
The S&P 500 is currently...The S&P 500 is currently hovering around record highs, with many analysts projecting further growth in the coming months. However, the market is facing several headwinds that could impact its performance:
Inflation: High inflation rates could lead to interest rate hikes, which could slow down economic growth and hurt stock prices.
Geopolitical tensions: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the war in Ukraine and tensions between the US and China, could create uncertainty in the market.
Economic slowdown: A global economic slowdown could also negatively impact the S&P 500.
Despite these risks, many analysts remain optimistic about the long-term outlook for the S&P 500. They believe that the US economy is strong and that corporate earnings will continue to grow.
Here are some resources that you can use to get more information about the S&P 500 forecast:
Goldman Sachs: www.forbes.com
FOREX.com: investinghaven.com
S&P 500 Forecast: Will Stocks Continue to Climb? www.barrons.com
It is important to note that no one can predict the future with certainty. The S&P 500 is a complex market, and its performance will be influenced by a variety of factors. It is important to do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
SPX : Saturn Squares Uranus (Heliocentric)The heliocentric Saturn-Uranus square is a potent astrological configuration known to influence significant market cycles, particularly in the SPX (S&P 500) often triggering periods of volatility and sometimes resulting in notable market crashes. Saturn, representing time, structure, karma, and restraint, squares off with Uranus, the planet of sudden change, innovation, and disruption.
This clash between the old and the new brings tension and unpredictability into financial markets, where structures that seem stable may suddenly face upheaval.
Market SnapshotA month or so ago we published an idea titled, Election Surprise, that essentially said it does not matter who wins the U.S. election...the market is still setting up for a massive downturn
What will be the catalyst?
Don't know but if we had to guess it will materialize in the Banking sector
Commercial Real Estate bubble finally bursting maybe?
Again we don't know or care what causes the downturn..we just know that something is coming and we are preparing accordingly
But hey..maybe we are wrong :)
Correction down for SPX500USDHi traders,
Last week my analysis of SPX500USD had been chosen for the Editor's Picks of Tradingview.
It was very funny to read many comments that my analysis was wrong and that it was more likely that this pair would drop then rise.
Now a week later we see who was wrong and who was right and who made a profit.
As a trader you always have to trust your own analysis. Don't listen to other opinions because that is mostly the losing mass that is speaking. I do this for 10 years and I know what I'm doing.
Now next week we could see the finish of wave 5 and after that a bigger correction.
Trade idea: Don't trade. Wait for the bigger correction down to start. After a change in orderflow to bearish and a correction up on a lower timeframe you could trade (short term) shorts.
If you want to learn more about wave analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a like and respectful comment.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide signals.
Don't be emotional, just trade!
Eduwave
$SPX The Hundred Years TrendThat's right..
The sheep were told we broke through the great depression trendline and to prepare themselves for a new paradigm..
As you can see we have broken through one of the great depression trendlines.
And Still you can see we have one to go..
Our last touch of this trendline ended up with a stiff rejection, and we are dangerously close to another fatal kiss.
If you haven't taken out a heavy long term short to cover life's everything,
it might be too late.
Only the strong will survive.
Are you Strong?
Big channelLooks like S&P is heading towards the top of a big channel that began from October 2023 low. This is an attempt to predict when and where it would happen, which is approximately on November 18 at 6115.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 8, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the current trading session, the S&P 500 index has exhibited significant strength by successfully filling the projected gap, as detailed in the S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis dated November 1. This upward movement has facilitated a substantial rebound, as the index has retested both the Outer Index Rally level of 5861 and the Key Resistance level of 5865. Furthermore, the index has completed the Outer Index Rally threshold 6000, suggesting a promising potential for additional increases toward Outer Index Rallies at 6123, 6233, and 6418. Nevertheless, it is essential to recognize that achieving the Outer Index Rally 6000 level may prompt a downward price movement towards the Mean Support level of 5929 before progressing into the subsequent phase of the bullish trend
