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US500 trade ideas

SPX500 H4 | Potential bullish bounceSPX500 is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 5,789.71 which is a pullback support. Stop loss is at 5,630.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit is at 5,994.08 which is a multi-swing-high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
TRADU:SPX500Long
by Tradu
Tariffs Shocked the World, But Look What Happened NextTrump's “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariff announcement triggered a sharp selloff in the S&P 500 on the 2nd April. A classic policy shock! But the market has since clawed back every point. So what now? Let’s break it down by strategy. 🔎 Long-Term Investors: Stay the Course 1) This recovery reinforces one truth: When you own quality businesses, Volatility ≠ Risk. Policy creates opportunity, not exit signals. 2) Stick with great companies, buy on fear, and ignore the noise. The next 10 years won’t be won by panic. ⚡ Momentum Traders: Technical Reversal Delivered 1) S&P 500 bounced above its 30-day MA. With the May 12th’s bullish gap (post temporary tariff pause) confirming the trend shift. 2) This was a textbook momentum setup. But if you didn’t plan for the whipsaw, you missed the edge. 📈 What This Means Now Short-term volatility is likely to continue as tariffs, rates, and elections are all on the table. Watch for pullbacks into structure and keep risk tight as news-driven moves will be fast and brutal. Choose your timeframe. Respect the trend. Don’t confuse noise with signal. The edge now isn’t in prediction — it’s in preparation.
SP:SPX
by JinDao_Tai
S&P 500 INDEX ,,, Possible pullback Uptrend Needless to say, every rising will be risky without a correction (either price or time). After about three months of upward moving with just a small time correction, personally I am waiting for a correction to get new buying positions. In addition, some of the companies have prices rising dramatically and this proves that having a small corrective wave is vital for the market. Around 5800 can be a good place for a correction and a pullback. totally wait for another sure trigger for entry or adding new buying positions. Good luck.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by pardis
2
SP500: Bearish Forecast for Major Indices Starting May 15, 2025Bearish Forecast for Major Indices Starting May 15, 2025 The S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nikkei 225, and other major indices are poised to begin a significant decline, potentially as early as today, May 15, 2025, targeting a retest of the price lows from April 7, 2025, and possibly lower (S&P 500: ~4,802.20, Dow Jones: ~36,611.78, Nikkei: ~30,340.50). This movement is driven by renewed trade tensions, disappointing economic data, and pervasive bearish market sentiment. 1. Fundamental Factors Driving Potential Decline 1.1. Renewed Uncertainty in Trade Policy · The rally in indices on May 12–13, 2025, was fueled by optimism surrounding a temporary U.S.-China tariff reduction agreement (a 90-day truce) announced after talks in Switzerland on May 11, 2025. However, as of May 15, 2025, investor confidence may be waning due to a lack of tangible progress in ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations. Trigger for May 15: Recent reports highlight conflicting statements from the Trump administration, with earlier promises of new trade deals (e.g., a U.K. deal on May 8) followed by uncertainty. A Reuters report from May 14, 2025, notes that U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are meeting with Chinese officials, but no new agreements have been confirmed. If today’s talks yield no positive outcomes or if President Trump escalates rhetoric (e.g., reinstating higher tariffs), markets could plummet, as seen in early April when tariffs triggered a 15% drop in the S&P 500. · Trade war fears disproportionately impact export-heavy indices like the Nikkei, which is sensitive to yen appreciation and U.S.-China tensions, and the Dow Jones, with its significant exposure to multinational corporations. A breakdown in negotiations could drive indices toward the April 7 lows as investors price in higher costs and slower global growth. 1.2. Disappointments in Economic Data · CPI Reaction: The April 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI), released on May 14, 2025, reported inflation at 2.3% annually, below the expected 2.4%. While initially viewed as positive, markets may have anticipated an even lower figure to justify Federal Reserve rate cuts. The modest S&P 500 gain (+0.7%) and Dow’s decline (-0.6%) on May 14 suggest investor skepticism about further inflation cooling. · Producer Price Index (PPI) Release on May 15: The PPI for April 2025, scheduled for release at 8:30 AM ET (2:30 PM CEST) on May 15, 2025, is a pivotal event. If the PPI indicates persistent wholesale inflation—potentially driven by tariff-related cost pressures—it could signal rising consumer prices ahead, diminishing hopes for Fed policy easing and triggering a sell-off. A higher-than-expected PPI could echo the market’s reaction to mixed economic data in early April, when GDP contraction fears pushed indices lower. · Consumer Sentiment: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May 2025, released on May 14, 2025, likely showed continued weakness (April’s reading was 52.2, a multi-year low). If the May figure, reported yesterday, declined further, it could amplify concerns about reduced consumer spending, negatively impacting corporate earnings and pushing indices downward. 1.3. Concerns Over Federal Reserve Policy · On May 7, 2025, Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted heightened economic risks, citing “elevated uncertainty” due to trade policies. Markets are pricing in 75 basis points of rate cuts for 2025, with the first cut expected in July. · Trigger for May 15: If today’s PPI data or other economic indicators (e.g., Initial Jobless Claims, also due at 8:30 AM ET) point to persistent inflation or economic weakness, expectations for rate cuts could fade, increasing borrowing costs for companies and pressuring equity valuations. This scenario would mirror April 7, when recession fears and tariff impacts drove the S&P 500 below 5,000. 2. Technical Analysis · The initial impulse move saw a decline of approximately -21.87%, with a second impulse of similar magnitude (marked on the chart). Currently, markets are aligned for a simultaneous decline across asset classes: oil, cryptocurrencies, and major indices like the S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nikkei, and others. · Previous analysis concluded that this is a correction preceding a broader decline in indices, driven by trade wars, geopolitical conflicts, and U.S. economic indicators. I believe a recession is already underway. Price Targets for S&P 500 Decline: ➖ Retest of the April 7, 2025, low: $4,803.00 ➖ Secondary target: $4,716.00 3. Market Sentiment and Behavioral Factors 3.1. Fragile Optimism Post-Rally · The S&P 500’s 22% rally from April lows and the Dow’s 15% recovery were driven by trade truce optimism and strength in technology stocks (e.g., Nvidia, Palantir). However, Bloomberg reported on May 14, 2025, that Wall Street’s rebound is “showing signs of exhaustion” due to trade war risks and fears of an economic slowdown. This fragility could lead to profit-taking today if negative news emerges. · The Dow’s weakness on May 14 (down 0.6% compared to the S&P 500’s 0.7% gain) highlights vulnerabilities in specific sectors (e.g., healthcare following UnitedHealth’s 18% drop), which could spread to broader markets. 3.2. Global Market Correlation · Asian markets, including the Nikkei, exhibited mixed performance on May 14, with China’s CSI 300 up slightly (+0.15%) and India’s Nifty 50 down 1.27%. If Asian markets open lower on May 15 due to overnight U.S. declines or trade-related news, it could create a feedback loop, intensifying global selling pressure. 4. Mini Evidence-Based Framework for the Forecast 4.1. Catalysts for Today’s Decline (May 15, 2025) PPI Data (8:30 AM ET): A higher-than-expected PPI could signal persistent inflation, reducing the likelihood of Fed rate cuts and triggering a sell-off. Consensus anticipates a 0.2% monthly increase; a reading above 0.3% could be bearish. Trade Talk Updates: Negative commentary from U.S. or Chinese officials (e.g., no deal reached in Geneva) could reignite trade war fears, mirroring the April 7 sell-off. Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): An unexpected rise in claims (e.g., above 220,000 compared to the prior fmadd211,000) could signal labor market weakness, amplifying recession fears. 4.2. Global Scenario for S&P 500 · I anticipate a wave-like decline with intermittent corrections. I wouldn’t be surprised if the S&P 500 falls below 4,700, potentially reaching 4,200. Extreme caution is warranted this year. · There’s even a theory that, starting in 2025, the U.S. dollar could lose 50% of its purchasing power. Idea: 4.3. Oil and Geopolitical Outlook I expect oil (Brent) to decline to the $50+/- range, from which an upward trend may begin, potentially tied to future military conflicts: · Europe vs. Russia · India vs. Pakistan · Iran vs. Israel
VANTAGE:SP500Short
by SergioRichi
Weekly SPX Has A Bottom W Pattern Prompting More Upside!Hey Traders and Followers! SPX is going up! Sounds crazy despite the tariff news floating around but charts never lie. Here's what we got on the weekly SPX/USD; We have a bottoming W pattern. What's that mean? We going higher people. 5690.7 is the beakline area, price above invites bulls to a party. Target for this long is at 6198.9 area. Support sits at 5579.4 for this one. I'm letting you know about this party so up to you if you want to have a good time. See you all there with bells on and cash for all $ for those who show up. Best of luck in all your trades $ Cheers!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Trade-Farmer
1
S&P500: VIX confirmed new Bull Cycle, eyes 9,800.S&P500 is on excellent bullish levels on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 66.480, MACD = 76.110, ADX = 38.627) and has technically fulfilled all conditions to extend this recovery and transition into a new Bull Cycle. VIX shows with its massive spike and then aggressive retreat that the correction's bottom is in and is in fact similar to March 2020 (COVID) and March 2009 (subprime crisis). The Bull Cycles after those were similar, the smallest was +105.62%. In accordance to that, we have a long term TP = 9,800. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
S&P 500 Index May Lose Upward MomentumS&P 500 Index May Lose Upward Momentum Yesterday’s inflation data release held no major surprises, as the actual Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures came in close to analysts’ forecasts. According to Forex Factory: → Annual CPI: actual = 2.3%, forecast = 2.4%, previous = 2.4%; → Monthly Core CPI: actual = 0.2%, forecast = 0.3%, previous = 0.1%. Overall, stock indices rose yesterday, but according to media reports, this momentum may begin to slow in the near future: → UBS analysts downgraded their rating on US equities from “attractive” to “neutral” following the recovery from early April lows; → Goldman Sachs analysts believe that the US stock market rally could stall at current levels. In their view, the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) is likely to reach 5900 over the next three months. Technical Analysis of the E-Mini S&P 500 Chart The chart provides more reasons to suggest that the current pace of growth may begin to slow. Firstly, the index has entered a broad range between 5800 and 6120, where it spent a prolonged period during late 2024 and early 2025. This is a zone (highlighted in purple) where supply and demand previously reached a stable equilibrium — and similar balance could potentially emerge again. Secondly: → the slope of the current upward channel (marked in black) appears excessively steep; → the RSI indicator points to a divergence; → the psychological level of 6000 may act as resistance. Given the above, special attention should be paid to the scenario in which the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) forms a short-term correction before the end of the month. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXM
by FXOpen
Upper Band Holds Post-Breakout - Classic Trend Signal in PlayDéjà vu? Not quite - but today’s session feels a lot like yesterday’s. We’ve got a fresh mechanical bear trigger from a late-day Tag ‘n Turn setup. But much like the previous session, price action is telling us a different story. Let’s walk through what I’m looking for. --- SPX Market Briefing Yesterday’s session started with a bearish bias. But by the end of the day, the market voided the setup via the hedge trigger - and since I wasn’t positioned bearish, it was a clear signal to flip bullish. Same playbook again today. I entered yesterday bullish and didn’t babysit the charts. Today, I’m starting with a bearish mechanical trigger, but futures are holding up. There’s also a post-breakout continuation in play that’s clinging to the upper Bollinger Band - a strong sign of bullish trending momentum. Bollinger himself suggested this as one of the most reliable signs of strength. So what’s the move? Bearish trigger? Yes. Bear entry? Not yet. I’ll defer bearish entries unless price breaks below the 5880 area, with a v-shaped entry. If price stays above 5910, I’ll resume bullish activity as needed. This is shaping up to be another go/no-go decision day - no need to guess, no need to jump early. Let price make the choice. I’ll respond when it does. GEX Analysis Update 5900 is looking like the key GEX level again. --- Expert Insights: Mistake: Taking every mechanical setup without confirming price action Fix: Use price structure (like Bollinger Band holds) to confirm trend integrity Mistake: Jumping in without clear invalidation levels Fix: Predefine bull/bear flip zones - today: 5880 and 5910 Mistake: Over-monitoring slow sessions Fix: No need to stare at charts - mechanical setups do the heavy lifting --- Rumour Has It… Bollinger Band Declared Emotional Support Tool Sources say traders have begun using the upper Bollinger Band like a weighted blanket. “As long as we’re above it,” one trader whispered from beneath a desk, “I feel safe.” Psychologists confirm it's become a market-wide security blanket, replacing support/resistance zones in all therapy sessions. This is entirely made-up satire. Probably! Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity? --- Fun Fact John Bollinger designed his bands in the early 1980s - not just to spot reversals, but also to identify sustained breakouts. When price hugs the upper band after a breakout, it’s often signalling continuation, not exhaustion. It’s a feature of trend momentum, not a warning of collapse. Today’s chart is textbook. The system gives us the setup. But the context? That’s where discretion adds juice to the edge.
SP:SPX
by MrPhilNewton
SPX 500 Downtrend MovementGreetings Traders this is my analysis on SPX500 and it is Short 📊 Overview: Current price: 5,901 (in the opening zone of the short position). The analysis points to a short strategy — the author predicts a price decline with the opening of a position between 6.009 and 6.023, aiming for 5.394–5.392. 🟩 Zone of resistance (Resistance level): Major resistance level: 6,153.39 Price has reacted at that level in the past and has previously been rejected, making it a strong psychological and technical barrier. 🟨 Entry and Expectation Zone: Open Position zone: 6.009–6.023 (brown zone) Expected reaction: short signal, if the price is likely to bounce off the resistance and head lower "First Top" and "Breakout" formations are observed, which is often a sign of a subsequent decline 🔻 Anticipated correction: Target zone: 5.394–5.392 It is the previous levels of consolidation and the possible target of a short position An arrow is shown predicting a price drop from the current level 🔴 Support Zone (Support Level): Main support: 5,091.52 If the price breaks through the target level, it can even go down to this support 🧠 Technical elements: Elliott Wave marks the completion of the impulse and corrective phase, suggesting the end of the upward wave Impulsive movement and a drop in price indicate the possibility that the current correction will end and the price will move downwards again A possible support area has already been tested, but it may be active again 🧩 Conclusion: Strategy: short entry at ~6,010–6,020 Stop loss should be above 6,153 (above strong resistance) Target: 5,394 (possible continuation of downward trend) The plan is based on price action analysis, waves and recognition of key zones Dear Traders like,comment let me know what do you think?
SP:SPXShort
by Zaks_ForexRules
S&P 500 Index Most Bullish Signal In 15 YearsThis is why it is very clear, certain, that the stock market, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is set to grow in the coming months. Last week produced the highest volume session, on the bullish side, since April/May 2010, that's 15 years. Back then, when this signal showed up, this index went to grow for years non-stop. The SPX also produced the strongest weekly session in several decades, maybe the strongest week ever, and a bounce happened (support found) exactly at the 0.618 retracement Fib. This is all we need to know. When the bulls enter the market and do so with force, it is because the market is set to grow. The correction produced decline of 21%. This is pretty standard. The fact that the correction happened really fast, it means that it will also have a fast end. The low is in. The correction is over. The S&P 500 Index is set to grow. You can be certain. If you have any doubts, just ask the chart. Namaste.
SP:SPXLong
by MasterAnanda
9
The S&P 500 Is About to Drop — The Real Rally Comes in July!S&P 500 Market Outlook: Navigating the Path to a Bullish Breakout by June 2025 At Vital Direction, we are committed to delivering precise and forward-looking market analysis rooted in deep technical expertise. Our current evaluation of the S&P 500 indicates that the recent upward movement is not the beginning of a true bull market. Rather, it reflects a counter-trend rally that is approaching exhaustion. We firmly believe that the market is preparing for a significant decline in the short term, followed by a prolonged sideways consolidation, before initiating a genuine, powerful bull market in late June 2025. Elliott Wave Analysis: A Classic Counter-Trend Structure Our Elliott Wave analysis suggests that the S&P 500’s recent rally has been corrective in nature, comprised of only three waves — a classic hallmark of a counter-trend move. This pattern lacks the five-wave impulsive structure typically associated with sustainable bull markets. From our vantage point, this confirms that we remain in a larger corrective phase. We anticipate that a sharp retracement is imminent, one that may unfold over the coming days and weeks, ultimately transitioning into a period of sideways price action until mid-to-late June 2025. Only thereafter do we foresee the conditions forming for a new all-time high and the emergence of a powerful bull leg. Gann Theory Timing: Imminent Market Top Our Gann timing model aligns precisely with this forecast. We have identified this week as a critical timing window for a potential top in the S&P 500. Once this pivot is confirmed, we expect the index to enter a steep downward phase. From a Gann perspective, this is a natural part of the market’s cyclical structure — a necessary clearing phase before the next long-term advance. US Bond Yields: A Telling Risk-Off Signal One of the most overlooked — yet crucial — factors supporting our bearish near-term view is the behaviour of US bond yields. Charts clearly show that bond yields are breaking out to new highs, a significant development that suggests institutional and “smart money” investors are positioning defensively. This is not a characteristic of a “risk-on” environment. When yields rise, particularly amidst equity euphoria, it typically indicates that investors are seeking safety and yield rather than embracing equity risk. This divergence is a red flag that supports our conviction: the equity rally is unsustainable, and a meaningful correction is near. Seasonality Supports the Retracement View Historical seasonality trends for the S&P 500 further validate our analysis. Data indicates the following typical market behaviour: Mid-May to Late May: Downtrend Late May to Mid-June: Temporary uptrend Mid-June to Late June: Another corrective phase From Late June Onward: Start of the next major bullish cycle This seasonal rhythm perfectly mirrors what we see technically: the market is preparing to reset before beginning a strong ascent in July 2025, building into a full-fledged bull market by late June. The Broader Picture: Beyond US-China While some market optimism has emerged on the back of renewed US-China tariff discussions, we caution against over-reliance on this narrative. The market appears to be ignoring the broader geopolitical context, including the absence of any clear tariff agreements between the US and Japan — another major global economic player. The complexity of global trade negotiations introduces substantial uncertainty, which may continue to weigh on investor confidence. Until such macroeconomic factors are stabilised and digested by the market, we do not anticipate a truly risk-on environment. The Road Ahead: A Strategic Pause Before Ascent In conclusion, Vital Direction maintains its firm stance: the current market structure does not yet support the onset of a sustained bull market. A meaningful retracement is necessary and, indeed, healthy for the long-term health of the market. We expect this corrective period to unfold over the coming weeks and months, culminating in a sideways consolidation until late June 2025 — the point at which we foresee the S&P 500 transitioning into a highly bullish environment, with the potential to reach new all-time highs. We will continue to monitor the technicals, macroeconomic developments, and global capital flows to provide our clients with the most accurate and actionable insights. The bull is coming — just not yet.
SP:SPX
by VitalDirection
Bullish S&P500The S&P 500 is showing strong behavior again today, which suggests investors remain optimistic about the market's overall direction. That said, the price is starting to look overextended from the 10 EMA and is now touching the Bollinger Bands. This usually signals that a pullback is likely, even if it's just a minor one to the 10 EMA. Of course, we can never predict exactly how the market will move—but when that pullback happens, it often brings better entry opportunities on individual stocks, helping us position ourselves more effectively. As always, remember that trading carries risk. Be mindful with your entries and apply solid risk and money management to protect your capital and avoid being wiped out by unexpected market moves.
ICMARKETS:US500Long
by GonzooTrading