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US500 trade ideas

S&P entering rough path in 2025 It seems S&P is going through a soft bounce back after selloff towards 10W MA around 58-5900 levels. This could be the strong rejection leading to summer lows around 52-5300 range . If Macro is promising could resume bull run by providing good entry otherwise a recovery towards 5600 which eventually sees 4800 or 2021 ATH making a long range for 4-5 years providing 2026 to reach towards 5800 level by end of December 2026 and giving a new ATH only in 2027 .
SP:SPXShort
by PJCharts4FUN
S&P short recovery before 52-5400 S&P short recovery before 52-5400 , If the trend from 2015-2016 repeats, we are due for a short recovery towards 5900 or 10MA and then follow for a larger correction by summer. If things look good at Macro level that would be great opportunity to resume bull cycle otherwise short recovery towards 5400 and following for a 2021 ATH 4800 area to complete bear market and settle down in 2026 to see new ATH inly in 2027. In that case 2025 Christmas would be good opportunity to buy. This is not a an advice including myself
SP:SPX
by PJCharts4FUN
S&P - WEEKLY SUMMARY 17.3-21.3 / FORECAST📉 S&P500 – 10th week of the base cycle (average 20 weeks), which began with the pivot forecast on January 13, now in the second phase. The bear is completing the overdue 50-week and 4-year cycles. Target levels are outlined here. The expected range for the base cycle low is mid-May to mid-June. At this point, I anticipate a reversal between the extreme forecasts of June 16 and June 23, marking the start of a new 4-year cycle. The beginning of any cycle, even a bearish one, is always bullish, and the start of a 4-year cycle can be very strong. 👉 Meanwhile, retrograde Venus and Mercury are predictably working against each other. As I mentioned in early March and in previous posts, retrograde Venus played out with a one-week lag upward. Retrograde Mercury on March 17 did not support the phase start as I expected last week; instead, it delayed the bullish move but lacked the energy to reverse it. Venus remains the stronger influence. The situation resembles the beginning of the second phase of the base cycle. Note the weak start of this phase. ⚠️ Technically, we are in a bearish base cycle. Therefore, the second phase is also expected to be bearish, with a short rally followed by a steep drop below the opening. A strong resistance level is at the familiar 5850 mark. The next extreme forecast is March 24 – the midpoint of retrograde Mercury. There is also a pivot forecast on March 27, but that is more relevant to crude.
CBOE:SPX
by irinawest
SPX at a Critical JunctureThe SPX is approaching a make-or-break moment. Over the next two weeks, we should gain clarity on whether the broader market is gearing up for new all-time highs, or if it's time to consider the possibility of a top forming — potentially signaling the onset of a more serious downside move (i.e., a bear market). Key resistance levels are in focus. Any strong rejection from these areas will be interpreted as a sign of weakness and could serve as an early signal for a lower low in the making. The red line on the chart represents a critical threshold — price should not close below it on a daily basis (and ideally, not on a weekly basis either). Also worth noting: the 5400 level holds significant liquidity, making it a key area to watch. For now, the approach is to remain cautiously long, as long as these levels continue to hold.
SP:SPXLong
by CampmanTrades
Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) seasonal strategists and swing tradersThrift Savings Plan (TSP) swing traders and seasonal swingers update AMEX:RSP SP:SPX AMEX:SPY AMEX:VOO : it is very tempting to call this the local bottom, but I caution against making that assumption just yet. We aren't trying to catch falling knives. Instead, we're riding the momentum. Let's look at previous examples, in which the assumption was that we bottomed, highlighted in boxes. What would I like to see before jumping back into C-Fund? S&P 500 stocks above the 200-day moving average, staying above 50%. Next, I'd look for the equal weighted S&P 500 ETF AMEX:RSP to make a higher low, which should also show up on the weighted S&P 500.
TVC:SPX
by Davy_Dave_Charts
S&P500 The Week Ahead 24th March '25S&P500 bearish & oversold, the key trading level is at 5766 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
Bollinger Bands Pinch, Market Yawns… I Stay Ready Bollinger Bands Pinch, Market Yawns… I Stay Ready | SPX Analysis 21 Mar 2025 It’s Friday, the market’s half-asleep, and I’ve redrawn my trendlines more times than I’ve refreshed my tea. The weekly chart (top left, if you're playing along at home) is shaping up to close with a tight little range bar, which basically tells us what we already knew: we're in a classic sideways smush. (technical term) And yes—I've once again spent time repositioning the bull/bear boundary levels, only to find that my actual triggers haven't changed a bit. The Bollinger Band pinch just confirms the stallout. Nothing new. Nothing sexy. Just… waiting. And honestly? I’m fine with that. Because Monday’s “don’t rush it” dodge saved me from getting trapped on the wrong side of a lazy bounce. Still bearish. Still patient. Still on standby fora push towards 5600, where I’ll happily ring the register on a few bear swings. --- There’s a special kind of frustration in watching a chart do absolutely nothing while you do absolutely everything to analyse it. That’s where we are. SPX continues to compress, now sporting a tight little Bollinger pinch that confirms (again) that the market’s in full nap mode. 🟠 Weekly chart: Range bar. Narrow. Uneventful. 🟠 Boundary redrawing: Done. Re-done. And redone again. 🟠 Bull/Bear triggers: Still the same, above 5705 for bulls, below 5605 for bears. I’ve adjusted my short-term channel view, tried to refine the angles, squinted at a few Fibonacci levels, and... nothing's really changed. . What’s interesting, though, is that while all this noise is happening, the real setups are marinating. My bear swings are aging like fine wine, just waiting for a push toward 5600 so I can cash out a few tranches that’ve been overstaying their welcome. And let’s not forget: 💥 The bull trigger still hasn’t fired. 💥 Monday’s Paddy's Day Party and bull entry swerve? Best decision of the week. 💥 No new entries unless levels break. No exceptions. I’m not expecting a massive move today, though saying that probably jinxed it. If we get some surprise action late in the day, great. If not, I’ll be clicking into the weekend with my blood pressure blissfully normal and my trades still on track. --- Fun Fact 📢 Did you know? Jesse Livermore, one of history’s greatest traders, once said: "The real money is made in the waiting." 💡 The Lesson? The best trades don’t happen when you force them—they happen when you let them come to you.
SP:SPX
by MrPhilNewton
I wouldn't be surprised for a capitulatory type of drop tomorrowAs we can see the trend line have held the US500/SPX/SPY price for so many times, we still couldn't break above it. In other word, it's acting as current overhead resistance ever since we broke down from this white line. We tried three times so far this week, 17th, 19th and the 20th, still couldn't manage to break above it. So if anything happens tomorrow, it would be a big red candle to tomorrow with gigantic volume since it is going to be the "Quad Witching" Day. When will the "True Bounce" be happening? I would say, the bounce back window should starts as early as next week if we see capitulation tomorrow.
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by MulaTrader2025
US500 Is Bullish! Long! Please, check our technical outlook for US500. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 5,657.57. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 5,809.58. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TRADENATION:US500Long
by SignalProvider
1
5700 Holds the Key - But I’m Not Chasing5700 Holds the Key - But I’m Not Chasing | SPX Analysis 20 Mar 2025 There was a time—many, many moons ago—when I’d stare at the screen, heart pounding, watching every single tick, second-guessing myself, sweating over every micro-move. And you know what? It was exhausting. Now? I don’t play that game anymore. I check my charts twice a day—once in the morning, once near the close. That’s it. I don’t get caught in the noise, I don’t set alerts that jolt me into action every five minutes, and I sure as hell don’t stress over every single price fluctuation that nudges my trigger levels. Because I trade a system—not emotions. Right now, SPX is hovering near my key levels, and while others are biting their nails and jumping in too soon, I’m just… waiting. --- Deeper Dive Analysis: I used to think the best traders were the ones who never took their eyes off the screen. That was a lie. 📌 How I Trade Without Letting the Market Control Me I’m a full-time trader, but that doesn’t mean I sit at my desk all day, reacting to every tiny move. I check the charts in the morning to set my plan. I check back near the close to manage open positions. That’s it. No pointless alerts. No staring at every price tick. No overreacting when price comes close to my trigger levels. 📌 Why This Works – Stress-Free & More Profitable Not gluing myself to the screen means: I don’t jump in too soon out of FOMO. I don’t panic if price "almost" hits my level. I let trades play out without second-guessing every move. 📌 SPX Setup – The Same Plan, Still Waiting Despite all the noise, the plan hasn’t changed. 5705 is my bullish trigger. 5605 is my bearish trigger. 5700 is shaping up to be a key pivot level. The market is dancing around these numbers, but I’m not chasing. 📌 Why Patience Pays – Let the Market Do the Work I’m not paid to react—I’m paid to execute. If price confirms my setup, I’ll take action. If it doesn’t, I wait. Either way, I sleep just fine at night. 📌 Final Thought – Trading Is NOT a 9-5 Job The market doesn’t care how long you stare at your screen. Great trades don’t require babysitting. Stress-free trading is real—you just need discipline. The best setups work, with or without you watching. So today, I’ll do what I always do—stick to my plan, check in when I need to, and let the market come to me. Because the real secret to high profits and low blood pressure? Not overtrading. --- 📢 Did you know? In 1958, legendary trader Richard Donchian introduced the 4-week rule—if price breaks out after four weeks of sideways action, it often triggers a massive move. 💡 The Lesson? Great setups don’t happen every day—but when they do, you better be ready.
SP:SPX
by MrPhilNewton
SPX500 20 Mar 25 Market Analysis Previously, we said that traders would see if the bulls could create a strong retest of Mar 17 high followed by a breakout above, if the retest lacks follow-through buying, stalling around or below (Mar 17) high area? The market retested the Mar 17 high yesterday, closing above the middle of its range and closed as a bull bar with a long tail above. The bulls want the market to form a 2 legged sideways to up pullback. It is currently underway. They need to create credible buying pressure - consecutive bull bars closing near their highs. Traders will see if they can continue to create follow-through buying. The next target for the bulls are the 20-day EMA or the January 13 low. For today, the bulls want a retest of yesterday's (Mar 19) high followed by another leg up. The bears see any pullback as minor. They expect at least a small second leg sideways to down to retest the Mar 13 low after the pullback phase. The 9-bar bear microchannel on the daily chart and the 4-bar bear microchannel on the weekly chart increases the odds that the first pullback (current pullback) would be minor and not lead to a reversal up. Because of the climactic selloff and parabolic wedge, the market may try to form a minor pullback. The pullback phase is currently underway. Traders will see the strength of the pullback. If it is strong (consecutive bull bars closing near their highs), they may look for a retest of the breakout point - Jan 13 low. If the pullback lacks follow-through buying (overlapping candlesticks, doji bars, bear bars, long tails above bars), the odds of another leg down AFTER the pullback phase increases. For now, traders will see if the bulls can create a strong retest of yesterday's (Mar 19) high followed by a breakout above. Or will the retest lacks follow-through buying, stalling around or slightly above yesterday's high area? I will update the post again later today.
SP:SPX
by Tech_Trader88
3
Sharp reversal in US marketsAmid market volatility and uncertainty, US stock indices experienced a sharp decline last week. The Dow Jones Index (#DJI30) fell by 3.5%, the S&P 500 (#SP500) dropped by 4.1%, and the Nasdaq-100 (#NQ100) lost 5.5%. Investors reacted nervously to new economic data, including rising inflation and expectations of interest rate hikes, leading to a sell-off in stocks and a decline in key indices. The drop was particularly significant in the technology and consumer sectors, where companies like Apple and Tesla lost around 6-7% of their value. However, starting March 13, 2025, the indices began to recover: #DJI30 gained 2.3%, #SP500 rose by 2.5%, and #NQ100 increased by 3.1%. The recent rebound in US stock indices has been driven by several factors that restored investor confidence. Let’s take a closer look at the main reasons: • Improvement in unemployment data: Labor market statistics played a crucial role in the market recovery. The US unemployment rate fell to 3.4% in February 2025, marking a record low in recent decades. This indicates strong employment levels and economic resilience, boosting investor optimism and supporting stock market growth. • Stabilization of inflation and interest rate expectations: Although inflation in the US remains high, recent data showed a slowdown in its growth. Reduced inflationary pressure gave investors hope that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might slow down the pace of interest rate hikes. This was perceived as a sign of potential economic stabilization, positively impacting stock indices. • Growth in consumer spending: One of the key drivers of the recent market recovery has been the increase in consumer spending. In Q1 2025, consumer demand in the US showed strong performance, serving as an essential indicator of economic activity. Increased spending on goods and services supports business stability and enhances corporate revenues, which, in turn, stimulates stock growth. • Absence of new geopolitical risks: In recent weeks, there have been no major geopolitical crises or new threats on the international stage. This helped financial markets stabilize, as investors could focus on economic data and corporate earnings reports, contributing to stock index growth. • Positive corporate earnings reports: • #Microsoft (MSFT): Microsoft shares rose by 4.2% after reporting strong quarterly results, driven by growth in cloud services and software revenue. • #Google (GOOGL): Alphabet’s stock increased by 3.7% due to higher advertising revenue and improved forecasts for upcoming quarters. • #Apple (AAPL): Apple shares climbed 2.9%, supported by strong sales of new products and rising revenue from services. • #Tesla (TSLA): Tesla stock surged 5.6%, fueled by strong electric vehicle sales growth and optimistic profit projections for the next quarter. These companies demonstrated significant growth on the back of improved financial performance, strengthening investor confidence and aiding the stock market’s recovery amid volatility. So despite last week’s market downturn, the current situation in the US stock market signals a potential recovery and a more positive trend in the coming weeks.
VANTAGE:SP500Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Ultimate summary of Powell’s comments today As expected, Powell reiterated that the Fed is in no rush to adjust rates, and the labour market is stable. He also reaffirmed the Fed’s reliance on hard data over sentiment and the approach of slowing balance sheet reduction. What’s different this time: Inflation & tariffs: Powell acknowledged that recent inflation upticks may be tariff-driven, delaying progress toward price stability. The Fed’s base case assumes tariff inflation is temporary. Economic sentiment: Consumer sentiment has weakened, partly due to Trump policy changes, and concerns over inflation are growing. Recession risk: Forecasts now lean toward weaker growth and higher inflation, with recession risks slightly elevated but still not high.
BLACKBULL:SPX500
by BlackBull_Markets
S&P500 INTRADAY awaits Fed’s decision and press conferenceThe US Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and release the monetary policy statement on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT, followed by a press conference from Chairman Jerome Powell at 18:30 GMT. Recent weak economic data from the US, along with new tariffs announced by President Donald Trump, have raised concerns about a possible recession. Despite this, the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged for the second meeting in a row. The updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) could provide important insights into the Fed’s future plans. However, the stock market remains wary that the Fed might not take a dovish enough stance. Inflation remains high, and tariffs could push prices even higher, making the central bank cautious about easing policy. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 5714 Resistance Level 2: 5770 Resistance Level 3: 5872-5920 Support Level 1: 5500 Support Level 2: 5387 Support Level 3: 5254 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
Tight Coil, Big Move Coming - FOMC Could Be the TriggerTight Coil, Big Move Coming - FOMC Could Be the Trigger | SPX Analysis 19 Mar 2025 Sometimes, doing nothing is the best trade you’ll ever make. While I was off enjoying my long weekend, SPX’s bullish move got slapped back into the range. Had I jumped in long, I’d probably be hedging or cursing my screen right now. Now, price is coiling into a bear flag, and with the FOMC circus rolling into town at 2PM, I’m expecting things to stay tight until the fireworks start. 📌 Bullish above 5705. 📌 Bearish below 5605. 📌 Until then, I sit back and let the market make the first move. Because in this game, you don’t force trades—you wait for the perfect shot. --- Deeper Dive Analysis: Some days, doing nothing is the right trade. That’s exactly what I did over my long weekend, and it ended up saving me from stepping into a bullish trap. SPX’s move up was short-lived, and now we’re right back in the range—but this time, it’s setting up in an interesting way. 📌 The Setup – Bear Flag + FOMC = Volatility Incoming SPX has: Fallen back into the previous range—bulls are losing control. Coiled into a tight bear flag formation—hinting at a breakdown. FOMC later today, which could be the match that lights the next move. 📌 The Trade Plan – Let the Market Show Its Hand Right now, I have no interest in guessing. Instead, I’m letting the market come to me. Bullish above 5705? I’ll consider a long setup. Bearish below 5605? I’ll ride the downside momentum. Until then, I sit tight. 📌 Bigger Picture – The Waiting Game FOMC is always a game of patience. Traders try to guess what’s coming, but most end up whipsawed to oblivion. I won’t be one of them. If the market confirms my bias, I strike. If it fakes out, I wait for a better setup. No stress, no panic—just disciplined execution. 📌 Bottom Line – The Best Trade Is Sometimes No Trade For now, I’m watching, waiting, and keeping my capital intact. Because when the market finally makes its real move, I’ll be there, ready to take full advantage. --- Fun Fact 📢 Did you know? The longest FOMC meeting in history lasted five days—in 1932, during the Great Depression. Traders were left in limbo, staring at their tickers, waiting for an answer that took 120 hours to arrive. 💡 The Lesson? Waiting for clarity isn’t new—it’s just that today, we get our pain in hours, not days.
SP:SPX
by MrPhilNewton