SPX - LONGWait for price to fill the gap. Once in the zone wait for bullish confirmation on the higher time frames for bulls to take over. TP set at previous highs.
US500AUD trade ideas
S&P 500 Wave Analysis – 26 May 2025
- S&P 500 reversed from support level 5775,00
- Likely to rise to resistance level 5970,00
S&P 500 index recently reversed up from the pivotal support level 5775,00 (former resistance from March, which formed the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Evening Star).
The support level 5775,00 was strengthened 20-day moving average and by the 38.21% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from April.
S&P 500 index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 5970,00, top of the previous minor impulse wave 1 from the middle of May.
Bullish continuation?S&P500 has bounced off the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could potentially rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 5,784.04
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 5,689.40
Why we lik eit:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 6,003.35
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
SP500 Ready to Continue it's Bullish MoveI just bought SP500 for it's bullish move continuation.
Monthly structure is bullish.
Weekly is bullish.
Daily is also bullish.
I entered for a long buy on the daily time frame retracement.
SPX500 H1 | Overlap resistance at 61.8% Fibonacci retracementSPX500 is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 5,881.33 which is an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 5,945.00 which is a level that sits above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 5,823.81 which is an overlap support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Looking at Examples of 4.23 Breaks If markets continue to make shallow dips and rally higher, or even if there's a big sell off and false break of the lows that makes a V recovery then we're seeing a whole lot of things up-trending above massive inflection points. In this post I want to show you some different examples of what has happened on 4.23 breaks.
The 4.23 level is a very high probability level to trade off. Even on an intra day basis this will most often have at least reactions and can have full reversals off it. You can see in the SPX chart that the 2022 top came off the 4.23. When a 4.23 is going to be a reversal level it will often react to the 4.23 spike it out. Come back under and hold a retest. Forming a head and shoulders pattern with 4.23 as the shoulders. That setup when successful is a fatal setup for the trend. When inside the 4.23 head fake you're inside the end of the trend.
Interestingly, not only is SPX at this 4.23 level but so are lots of other things. Bitcoin is, for example.
BTC is often a good proxy for risk on/off so it's interesting this is at this big decision level along with SPX is interesting.
In the 4.23 reversal the rejection of rallies can be so strong and abrupt there's not a chance to do anything during it. You really have to think about it in advance.
But if the 4.23 break it's extremely easy to the upside for the foreseeable future.
Let's start with looking at the different 4.23 decisions in AAPL over the years.
This first one shows how the head fakes can be the end of rallies. This correcting relatively shallow compared to the full risk. Holding the 2.61.
From this pullback and 4.23 break AAPL went up 200% without any sizable pullbacks.
Advancing to the further swing.
In this one AAPL began to go parabolic in the run to the 4.23. Got a bit above it. Crashed back to it. Held retests and then went into a big boom move.
Almost every week closed higher in this period which continued until over 100% above the 4.23.
We advance the swing again and ... what's the chances?
AAPL last top is 4.23 and now we're retesting the 4.23.
Now ... there are different things that can happen. But if you were to assume the 4.23 pattern in AAPL continues it'd have to do this.
And if you believe that is possible (and it's possible) then the SPX chart in the OP makes a lot of sense, right?
Expecting BTC would do this would be obvious if indices made that move.
Look at NVDA.
To overlook the risks of rejection would be fatal if wrong (this could be a simple head and shoulders like pattern) but viewed through the lens of a 4.23 pullback this would have a hyper bullish forecast to it.
Over and over again you can make this case for things doubling without any major pullbacks. Candle after candle up-trends.
It would not be a time to be a bear!
Here's a look left on NVDA. If you had fibs from the crash range here was the 4.23 decision.
We could be somewhere like here in NVDA.
These are things you certainly have to respect the risk of as an active shorter of things. It'd not be good. And they're such massive outsized opportunities if they form like this that it'd be insane to not prep for what to do in this. If week after week after week is closing green and we never trade under the last week - a smart trader can build a massive position in that.
Think about the positions you could build in these periods where the market never crosses your entry again.
And then wait and start to trail stops when it goes parabolic. During this period there will be 10% jumps up and the trend of shallow pullbacks will continue.
Carrying a bear bias into this would be bad because although the trend never breaks there a enough pullbacks to mean you can easily end up bearish in the worst rally zones. If betting on things like bull traps/spike outs.
These moves above the 4.23 are very common. A sharp doubling of the trend happens above the 4.23 a lot!
If SPX is going to break it and have the common reaction - everything is going vertical. There are lots of things that are at the 4.23 zones now and you can add 100% onto the 4.23 and think it's probable it will get to there and head fake over it a bit. 100% should be a fairly "Safe" target for the 4.23 break.
More speculative ideas would be to look for things that are currently down a lot and draw a fib from the high to the low of those. If we enter into a mania condition where indices are up every week then we might see mania in the hyper speculative things that were in favour previously.
Example;
Not think this sort of thing works on doge?
We have a current 4.23 top and a drop to the 1.27. That's the full predicted correction off a 4.23. It's not always the bottom - but this is the target for a 4.23 drop. Doge may have completed a full 4.23 cycle and be heading into the next. Absolutely possible. If that were true, this would be set to begin to trend very hard.
The consideration has to be what if SPX is here.
It'd be fair to say the odds of this are low but how high would they have to be to make it worth considering?
People act as if the idea of considering massive downside risk means you're scared to take upside risk. Which isn't the case. If anything, I am advocating for more aggressive upside risk betting on the solid trend continuation with tight trailing stops if the breakout is made. Inside the area where we have most chance of a pullback in an uptrend and a wipe out top in a reversal I'm extremely aware of what those risks might look like, but I won't be "Side lined" in a breakout. It means I don't want to broke if the extreme risk thing happens.
Indices could more than double or more than half off the 4.23 decision. We're in a really interesting time.
If we break I plan to trade as if we're going to be up and up every week. Only take long setups. Maybe have a few macro short levels along the way but be mainly a perma bull. If we get the consistent buying weeks I'll expect all dips will be bought and the uptrend will turn into a parabolic run, I'll act accordingly.
And if we start to get massive 10 - 20% weekly candles somewhere over 10,000, I'll suspect that may be blow off action and start to think about fading. By this time we'll be at the next set of important fib levels and I'll use a very similar form of analysis.
If you use any half decent trend strategy with a stop loss you really can't lose money in a typical 4.23 breakout. Even those mindlessly buying with no downside control can run up a lot (although it's questionable if they get to keep it or not).
The fact this is a possible outcome for bears if the resistances fail at this level is something I think macro bears should consider, deeply. Because you don't have to "Be wrong" for this to happen. If your thesis this is all a big stinking bubble - your biggest risk isn't you're wrong, it's you're right! And we're inside the bubble. Not at the end of it. Bubbles FREQUENTLY double into their end points.
This would be a major opportunity for any who embraced it. I do think seeing this happen would be warning things were going to get ugly later but the money to be made in the 5000 - 10,000 run would be exceptional. Accumulating intra day/week with trailing stops would probably see you hit trailing stops about three times most of them you getting in lower and you could end up making 1.000% for the 100% the market went up - and do this while keeping risk capped low since you're always trailing stops to lock in profit.
The opportunity isn't in the price forecast/% as such. It's more in the fact that if it is right it should be evidenced by those periods of extremely consistent trend. These will go on for a long time. Be interrupted. Chop / drop and then resume. The amount you can make in those types of trends if you expect them is off the page. And it'd be easy. There's a few times it'd be tricky and these can be deal with by simply waiting - because later it will be easy.
What makes this all the more important to consider for bears I think is the fact that we could say the highest probability way that SPX makes this move is by dumping under the last low to retest the 4.23 first.
Which would feel very bearish. Very "I should sell the rip" ish. The move that this would make is one I already have marked in as a warning that we could end up going significantly lower. I have to understand all those conditions could fill and even although it all looks exactly like a bear setup, it's actually a 4.23 retest. Very different things for the next swing.
Every major high and low in SPX during the last decade has interacted with the fibs from the 2008 low. They've marked out the highs/lows better than anything else.
We're now at the most important one of those. It hit in 2022 and since then we've been inside the suspense period of it. The 4.23 reaction didn't tell us all that much. A 4.23 spike out doesn't tell us all that much. Both of these things happen in the bull and bear moves. But the actual decision after the attempt to break 4.23 matters a lot.
Whatever happens here is likely to be the most pivotal decision point so far.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 23, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The S&P 500 Index demonstrated a consistent downward trend during this week's trading session, reaching a significant target at the Mean Support level 5828. The index is currently trending lower, targeting the Inner Index Dip at 5730, with additional marks identified at the Mean Support levels of 5660 and 5600. Conversely, the index has the potential to rebound from its present position, advancing toward the Mean Resistance level of 5860 and retesting the previously completed Outer Index Rally at 5955.
Another leg of bull market comingBeing bearish in the stock market—especially after such a big correction and a V-shaped recovery—is definitely not a good idea. Probability and past history are against you. If Trump succeeds in bringing more jobs by tarrifs and reduce government expending as he promises, it could easily keep the uptrend going for the next two years and push past the 10,000 level, just like 2018 and 2020
S&P500 tests the upper border of the rangeThe S&P 500 index is concentrating in the massive triangle below the psychological level of $6000, and given the overall neutral to good market sentiment, it’s not expected to plummet from this area before testing the area of $6000-6200. Should the breakout of this zone happen, it’s not expected to be sustainable and may quickly revert back to the range, as traders are quite cautious right now and the market is prone to liquidations and quick profit taking.
Don't forget - this is just the idea, always do your own research and never forget to manage your risk!
SPX500 — Structural Weakness Emerging on the 15-Min ChartWe may be approaching a critical inflection point.
Price action is showing signs of exhaustion after multiple failed attempts to break higher. The market structure is compressing beneath resistance, setting the stage for a potential breakdown.
🧭 Key Level to Watch:
Support at 5,790.33 aligns with previous liquidity sweeps and demand zones. A move toward this level could reflect rotation from short-term bullish euphoria into a broader correction cycle.
⚠️ Institutional traders, are you watching the same tape?
This isn’t just about price—it’s about positioning.
Market signals:
Distribution pattern forming
Liquidity void below current level
Compression likely to result in expansion (downside bias)
In markets like these, timing is everything.
Capital flows speak louder than sentiment.
#SP500 #MarketStructure #InstitutionalTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #SmartMoney #LiquidityZones #MacroStrategy #WaverVanir #RiskManagement
S&P 500 4 Hr. chart Impulsing towards 6125
1). Huge Volume! 2). Banks are Buying! 3). Breaking trendline on wave 3.
2). The fundamentals are extremely bullish, therefore corrective’s may be shallow!
S&P 500 is Under Pressure from Weak ADP Data, Strong ResistanceThe S&P 500 is showing signs of contraction just below the key 6000 level. The ADP employment report, which revealed the slowest pace of hiring since March 2023, has raised some concern among investors. Whether this weak labor data will significantly impact the broader stock market remains to be seen.
Tariff effects appear to be gradually surfacing, first in jobless claims, then in the ISM manufacturing data, and now in the ADP report. Inflation data will likely be affected last, probably in a few months, due to the fact that both households and businesses frontloaded purchases ahead of the tariffs. As a result, the market could first confront recession fears, followed later by concerns about stagflation.
From a technical standpoint, a short-term RSI divergence is emerging, and the 6000 level is acting as strong resistance. If the S&P 500 fails to break above this resistance, a selloff could be triggered, with the 200-hour moving average as the initial target. Should the index fall below the 200-hour level, bearish momentum could increase, potentially deepening the correction.
To invalidate this negative scenario, the index would need a clear breakout above 6000, confirmed by multiple daily closes above that level.
S&P 500 is going in a ranging mode5704 is a historical key level, now we are slightly above it; for serious buyers we have to wait until the news; we will watch a retracement in this zone then we can take our position long
Something Brewing on SPXCup and handle brewing on the SPX daily. All time highs are near. See you there before the pullback
Balance areas abound - SPX GOLD USOIL BTCBias still up on the markets with the target likely being the upper daily BB. Gold target reached and now taking a breather. USOIL may break up sooner than later. BTC looks like more downside is likely.
Updated Technical Analysis – SPX500 (15M)Published: June 3, 2025 @ 10:22 PST
🔍 Observations:
🔺 Price Context:
Currently trading at 5,982, right inside the premium + weak high zone
1.382 Fib extension = 5,979.73 has just been tagged
Next Fib levels:
1.618 = 6,000.33
2.0 = 6,034.13 (also long-term resistance target)
🧠 SMC & Liquidity:
BOS confirmed around 5,927
Multiple ChoCHs now invalidated = strength in the up move
Weak high at 5,980 likely acted as a liquidity magnet → now filled
📉 Risk Alert:
Low volume on the final leg up = signs of exhaustion
Price is now above key liquidity zones — perfect for a fake-out or reversal
🔁 Updated Probabilities (Intraday Outlook)
Direction Probability Reason
Bearish Reversal (today) 65% Liquidity sweep + premium zone rejection + volume divergence
Bullish Continuation (toward 6,034) 35% Momentum intact, if breakout holds and is supported by volume spike
🧠 Analyst Note:
"This was the right view, can’t believe I missed it."
— This quote fits perfectly here. The 5,902 zone (equilibrium) acted exactly as intended: a launchpad. Missing the move isn’t the problem — it’s not learning from it that is.
SPX500SPX500: Bullish Momentum Builds – 6500 in Sight?
📍 Current Price: 5977.00
📈 Bias: Strongly Bullish
🎯 Target: 6500+
📉 Invalidation Level: 5850 (Short-term support)
📊 Technical Outlook:
The SPX500 continues to show strong bullish momentum as it trades at all-time highs near 5977.00. With persistent buying pressure and supportive macro tailwinds, the index looks poised for further upside.
Key observations:
✅ Price Action: Clean breakout and consolidation above recent highs. No signs of exhaustion yet.
📈 Trend: Clearly up across all major timeframes (Daily, 4H, 1H).
🧠 Psychological Level: 6000 is within reach, and a break above could open the path toward 6500 as the next major round number and Fibonacci extension level.
💡 Market Sentiment: Risk-on tone prevails; tech and mega caps continue to lead.
🔍 Support & Resistance Levels:
Resistance: 6000 → 6150 → 6500
Support: 5900 → 5850 → 5735
⚠️ Risk Management:
While the setup remains bullish, traders should watch for:
Surprise macro headlines (Fed speeches, inflation data, geopolitical risks)
Pullbacks toward support for potential re-entries
📝 Conclusion:
SPX500 remains in a powerful uptrend. As long as price holds above key short-term support at 5850, bulls retain full control. A breakout above 6000 could trigger a fresh wave of institutional buying, driving price toward 6500 in the coming weeks.
📢 Let me know your thoughts — are we heading for 6500 next?
👍 Like & follow for more real-time market insights!
That's for My American FriendsGuys there's a LQ in there downside if you don't want to miss so you can enter but make sure your SL is large, but i suggest you wait for LQ taken, i know it's take time but Patiance Pays.. See You
SPX500 H1 | Potential bullish bounceSPX500 is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 5,907.26 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 5,838.00 which is a level that lies underneath a multi-swing-low support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 5,995.10 which is a swing-high resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
S&P 500"The S&P 500 is showing a bullish trend on the monthly chart, which means as we enter a new month (June), we're looking for a healthy pullback to position for long entries. Fingers crossed!"
SPX500 (Daily) Elliot wave 4 underwaySPX appears to be printing a wave 4, potentially a triangle giving the proximity to the all the time high. Triangles are a motif wave ending pattern with a thrust up afterwards, typically a poke above the previous all time high before retracing trapping retail with FOMO.
Wave 2 is expected to retrace to the bottom of the triangle / wave 4 currently the high volume node support and .236 Fibonacci retracement at $5680
Safe trading
S&P 500 Index -- Weekly Volatility Potential Good Afternoon!
This week, I want to talk about the CBOE:SPX and its weekly potential for how I read historical volatility to weight it then to implied volatility -- this creates my custom trading ranges.
Implied ranges for this week are calculated at 4 DTE using my strength of IV method. You can find out more how I do this over at my highlights page on 'X' - Find me @askHVtobidIV
We are entering a short week, with IV currently in the 89th percentile for the year ( 18.31% ) and resonating between bi-weekly ( 19.36% ) and monthly ( 15.13% ) historical values. Quarterly volatility trends ( 31.79% ) have risen more than 10% this year alone due to macro concerns and increased news from tariff uncertainties. This is creating a volatile environment that, in turn, only increases our trading ranges. Something I personally like.
Near-term trends are above the currently high IV environment, suggesting further expansion. This provides premium value on what is happening to what is projected to happen and a “strength of IV” of >100% indicating rising volatility, slowly towards quarterly means, while resonating around monthly trends.
If price action drives downwards, our gap from May 16th could fill around $5,692.56 with confluence of HV21 trends at $5,710.91.
Conversely, I can see HV10 ranges with rising pricing action and good macro news with EU tariffs breaking $5,971.33—Expanding to the price of $5,995.95 with continuing expansion and regression towards means.
Come back next weekend as I will review the chart to see how we developed!
For those interested in volatility analysis and the application of weighted HV ranges to IV, I encourage you to BOOST and share this post, leave a comment, or follow me to join me on this journey.
Watching SPX500, buying puts right now!I think the market will reverse here. I don't know what the market is going to do, but I have high conviction in .886 reversal from this zone. Also, 0.618–1.618 confluence pending. Let's see what we get here.
