SP500CFD // The bowl is completed at the 6128.16 level, we can see this level as a sales opportunity and make some profit. When we sell, our take profit point is 10 exponentials.
US500AUD trade ideas
SPX500 H4 I Bearish Drop Based on the H4 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry level at 6001.65, a pullback resistance.
Our take profit is set at 5849.37, a pullback support.
The stop loss is set at 6153.88, a swing high resistance.
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Range Bound MarketS&P 500 Daily Price Chart with Bollinger Bands; Moving Averages 200;50 days.
Some of the big moves were triggered by tariff announcements. Market will
react to economic numbers, tariff news, and earnings. It seems that a recovery from
the lows in April brought the market within 5% of the all-time high.
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I will personally watch this trade. London session might go downI think I discovered a flawed in the system and it might need some immediate attention. This is where my specialty comes in.
SPX500 : We could look for mean reversion here. "London should buy again if US is Selling."
This chart suggests a potential redistribution of liquidity across sessions, highlighting a play on inter-session trade balance and session highs/lows targeting.
🔑 Key Confluences:
1. Premium Zone Rejection
Price is consolidating below a premium supply zone, rejecting near 5,926–5,930.
EQH and BOS suggest liquidity was swept above the recent high.
Bears defending weak high structure—potential for a fakeout to downside if buyers step back in from London or Asia.
2. Session-Based Imbalance Logic
New York (NY) session drove into premium and is now distributing/selling.
Watch if London/Asia step in to reaccumulate from the discount OB zone (~5,856–5,877).
Volume spikes confirm institutional decision points — highest vol aligned with New York push into highs.
3. Equilibrium Reclaim Potential
5,901.41 is marked as equilibrium.
Expect buyers to defend this zone if NY fades — if price reclaims EQ, bullish continuation is in play.
Fail = revisit strong demand below.
4. ORB Range Context (0930–0945 ET)
ORB high = 5,877.37
ORB low = 5,856.85
Price is above the ORB, reinforcing current bullish structure unless US session breaks structure down.
5. CHoCH + BOS Sequencing
Multiple CHoCH → BOS → EQH sequences signal internal structure breaks, consolidating into reversal potential.
If Tokyo holds current low (5,924 avg), price may spring higher during upcoming London session.
📈 Trade Bias: Bullish Bias (Conditional)
Watch for a liquidity sweep → reclaim setup around 5,901 or deeper at 5,877 for a long entry toward 5,940+.
📘 Scenario 1 – Buy Setup:
Entry Zone: 5,877.37–5,901.41
Invalidation: Below 5,856.85
Targets:
TP1: 5,926 (retest of EQH zone)
TP2: 5,940+ (true breakout)
🛑 Scenario 2 – Sell Setup:
If NY drives price below 5,856.85, look for a break-and-retest of EQ for shorts into 5,830 zone (volume gap fill).
🧠 Institutional Flow Insight:
This chart reads like a "sessional liquidity rotation":
Tokyo: Buy programs
London: Accumulated
New York: Profit-taking / Distribution
So if US sells, London may bid again, making this a great session echo play.
Establishing Real-Time Price Action!1). Place Fib tool wherever it works, as theses will be key levels of Buy/Sell entries! 2). Strike a trendline off of whatever works best! 3). Establish a 5-wave/ABC sequence that seems to work! 4). Remember, wave 1 defines directional bias of price action! 5). Wave 3 slightly broke above a previous high, therefore the upward bias is likely still intact! 6). It's all the same price action principles on any timeframe any Instrument! 7). Practice...It's actually quite simple! KEEP IN MIND, WAVE 2 COULD DROP DEEPER... AS IT REMAINS THE ACTIVE WILDCARD!
US500 – Buy the Dip Near Trend & EMA SupportTrade Idea
Type: Buy Limit
Entry: 5,870
Target: 6,020
Stop Loss: 5,820
Risk/Reward Ratio: 3:1
Duration: Intraday
Expires: 28/05/2025 12:00
Technical Overview
Price action continues to respect the primary bullish trend with recent buying off the 78.6% Fibonacci pullback level at 5,868.
A bullish engulfing candle on the 4H chart reinforces a short-term momentum shift to the upside.
The 20-period 4H EMA (5,864) is rising and should provide dynamic support near the entry level.
The setup favors buying dips, aiming for a move to 6,020, while keeping stops tight below key support at 5,820.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Market and Gold previewSome ideas. Gold looks like the better R/R here. If SP drops under 5840 and holds, it's going a lower.
S&P 500 (SPX500USD) – Liquidity Sweep or Continuation? | Probabi🕒 1H Chart | Smart Money Concepts | Volume | ORB Framework
We are currently trading around 5,888, after a recovery from the equilibrium zone near 5,760–5,770, which served as a strong reaction point. Here's how we at WaverVanir International LLC are assessing probability-based outcomes using our DSS and institutional concepts:
🔍 Key Levels & Observations:
🟥 Premium Supply Zone:
5,925–5,945 shows signs of multiple CHoCHs (Change of Character), BOS (Break of Structure), and prior liquidity grabs.
This zone is now a potential trap for late buyers.
Prob. of rejection: ~70% based on historical confluence.
🟦 Discount Demand Zone:
5,742–5,770 is our equilibrium/discount reaccumulation zone with a high-probability reaction area.
Swept liquidity clean on May 24–27 with volume spike confirmation.
Prob. of support: ~75% short-term if price retraces with exhaustion.
📈 Trade Ideas (Probability-Weighted):
Short Setup (Reactive)
Entry: 5,928–5,940 (inside premium)
Stop Loss: Above 5,950 (above weak high)
Target 1: 5,860
Target 2: 5,785–5,765 (equilibrium zone)
Confidence: 65–70%
Long Setup (Reversion Play)
Entry: 5,765–5,745 (bottom of imbalance)
Stop Loss: Below 5,729
Target 1: 5,859
Target 2: 5,910–5,920
Confidence: 70% if sweep occurs with declining vol.
🔄 ORB Confluence:
Opening Range Breakout (0930–0945) shows recent buy-side aggression, but this move is suspect unless volume continues climbing. A fade below 5,859 without impulsive volume confirms seller re-entry.
Liquidity sweep warning from my DSS. Let's see if we see a rug pull in the markets, or we will witness something magical :)
SPY Moving UpWe can look for price to continue up We are starting to see some selling pressure. The RSI on the one hour still has to grow.
Monday Bounce from 4H Demand ZoneAfter taking a controlled loss on Friday, I came into Monday focused and clear-minded. Price tapped into a clean 4H demand zone and printed a strong bullish engulfing candle — a textbook rejection from imbalance. I waited for the 4H candle close before entering long.
Risk was tight below the demand zone, with a clear target above — offering a high RR setup. This trade wasn’t about the day of the week; it was about respecting structure, imbalance, and confirmation.
Pair: US500
Timeframe: 4H
Setup: Bullish engulfing off 4H demand zone + imbalance fill
Entry: After 4H candle close
Stop Loss: Below demand wick
Take Profit: Major clean high above imbalance
Risk-to-Reward: Over 3R
This is why I trade the 4H. One clean move. No stress. No noise. Just structure + patience.
– THE 4H TRADER
S&P 500 Weekly PotentialVolatility, expressed through standard deviation, quantifies market elasticity and presents a level of probability and precision that humbles us all.
This week with SP:SPX bi-weekly trends have risen to just below our monthly values and are currently expansive over the markets IV prediction. Right now as I see it, HV10 is going resonate alongside our monthly values showing continued strength over IV. We could full regression to quarterly means as we move our of corrective territory then see consolidation to cool the markets down.
BOOST the post, drop a follow and comment, BUT don't circle back at the end of the week to revisit and observe how our trending markets preformed!
Is Trump Triggering a Mini Market Crack to Drive Capital into Tr📉 Is Trump Triggering a Mini Market Crack to Drive Capital into Treasuries?
Recent remarks by former President Donald Trump — including threats of 50% tariffs on EU goods and pressure on Apple to manufacture domestically — have sparked sharp red moves across the U.S. markets.
Which leads to a serious question:
👉 Could this be a deliberate strategy to induce fear in the stock market and push both institutional and retail money toward U.S. Treasury bonds?
In a context where the U.S. government needs to issue and absorb massive debt, and where yields are rising to attract buyers, a sell-off in equities might:
💰 Boost demand for Treasuries
🔥 Justify aggressive fiscal or monetary actions
🎯 Reposition political actors as “economic saviors”
I’m not making claims — just thinking out loud...
Are we witnessing a calculated move to reroute capital from equities into U.S. debt, using fear as the vehicle?
What do you think — coincidence… or strategy?
SPY ready to continue its up-trend?!?Now that price has pulled back, we’ve seen a reaction from the daily 20 EMA, forming what resembles a hammer candlestick. This could signal that the uptrend may be ready to resume.
That said, Monday will be key. If the market continues to show strength, it may confirm a continuation to the upside. But if price drops instead, we could be in for a deeper pullback.
⚠️ Remember: just because we’re in an uptrend doesn’t mean the market can’t reverse. The market is unpredictable, and that’s why reacting to price behavior at each point of interest (POI) is so important.
Stay flexible, manage your risk, and trade what the market shows you, not what you expect.
Bear Case Requires Downtrend Action. Strong Bull Bias Otherwise.With the recent breaks the odds are strongly towards 5500 hitting and if that breaks the odds are greatly for far lower hitting but I want to take some time to make sure I am clear on the binary nature of where we are.
The market is in a "Might go up, might go down" spot. Probably won't go sideways for long. I think we're probably going to see strong trends coming out of whatever decision is made here.
First thing I want to really drill in for my bear friends is a sell off from the 86 means nothing at all. Most of the time this is a bear trap. We have broken the first level it may have bottomed so the bias is strongly towards the next ones hitting but having a strong bear bias at this point in historic SPX setup would have led you into a lot of trouble most of the time.
If you fade trends the thing you always have to be worrying about is you've got this "pretty much" right but you're actually one swing too early. Because when that happens, the last swing is always exceptionally strong.
Fading trends is hard because if you're wrong it trends against you and if you're 95% right it spikes against you in the most ruthless of ways. What makes this all the worse is that comes off a correction in the trend so you end up with a bigger zone in which you're wrong. For example if we began to rally here there's now about 4% extra you could be wrong while saying we're still inside the last high.
Any time you're fading a trend and it's going well you should think of this risk. You have to map in the risk of a 161 head fake. These happen a lot. A common thing in blow offs. If you're right about the reversal after this move the short will be easy - but it's not easy to take if you're short bias into it.
Given the broader context of everything, I don't think I favour the 1.61 head-fake being the outcome if we rally. If we rally again then we're seeing prolonged big chart trending action above the macro 4.23 and I've only ever seen trends getting stronger when they can break a 4.23.
If the 1.61 breaks we can end up at the 4.23 - which would be a monster move.
The instance of a 4.23 hitting from a 50% crash are extremely rare. Every instance of it there has been in indices has led to a massive trend decision. All instances of bubbles tend to have clear changes in their momentum when breaking 4.23 fibs.
SPX is already above the 4.23 fib. The bear thesis has it this is a head-fake of that. It needs to be evidenced by a strong rejection of the head-fake.
Earlier I mentioned the tendency of 1.61 head-fakes. This was the most recurring big obvious topping signal I found when looking at crashes. We'd usually dummy drop and then make a 1.61 spike out. This is the rule I use to tell a pending false breakout from a breakout. If it breaks the 1.61, I expect it will get at least very close to the 2.20. If it can not break the 1.61, then there's a strong chance it may be topping.
Our current top is on the 1.61 hit and we're now into a retest of that.
The 1.61 sell off is interesting because if it's a 4.23 reversal we have to be in a head fake above it and if it's a head fake we are looking for a 1.61 spike. These things make the speculative bets into the retest compelling and the pragmatic "What if" planning for a break worth covering. A 1.61 reversal would be expected to be a nasty event.
A 1.61 reversal would take out the last low (by definition, it's just a bit pullback otherwise) and it would do this in a strong consistent selling manner.
Which would be crash like on this timeframe.
But the 1.61 reaction is not in any way prescriptive of a crash at this point. A common pattern is a big pullback from the 1.61 and then when it has been broken again it goes into a strong rally to the following fibs. This can top on a few of the fibs but full extensions in strong trends spike out 4.23.
Inside the context of the overall building of the trend what is happening now would be insignificant overall. Even if dropping all the way to 5500. A full expansion of this would agree with the other fibs we had around the 10,000 level. Furthermore, a doubling period off the breakout of a 4.23 I'd consider to be a highly probable outcome.
If the bear thesis is wrong here it can be wrong in a way that is irrecoverable. A persist bear will get you slaughtered.
The case for a potential bear move here is extremely strong but that does also tend to mean the failure of it would be all the more spectacular. It makes a lot of sense to bet in these zones because there's a high chance you can at least break even on short term reactions and can perhaps make a lot in bigger reversals.
It's pragmatic to be aware of what the larger risks of a reversal would be and how the swings in that would likely form. You have to think about these things ahead of time because otherwise it all happens too fast to really have time to think. Impulse decisions are usually bad.
I have a high degree of confidence in the fibs being able to map out the important levels. My ability to know what that means ... not so much. I may or may not get it right.
What is highly likely to be right based on 100 yrs of swings in SPX is the next major swing will relate to a previous swing in such a way that fib levels make it possible to get a good idea of the major highs/lows of the move. All the ways we can do that from here imply massive moves. If it's not 50% off the high it's 100% from the 4.23 break.
How all this relates to where we are at this moment in time is we have to accept the potential of the bear bet being so wrong that even if there's a crash later it comes back to this price - meaning if it doesn't work here- entirely drop it and aggressively trend follow. If the bear bet is right we have to be inside of a 1.61 head fake of a 4.23.
If we're inside of a head fake is has to sell off very consistently. We crash back to the break level. Price "Isn't meant" to be above that level and when the brief flurry is over it's nothing but selling.
The consistency with which this style of rejection has is uncommon so it was really weird seeing it off the first 1.61 reaction. For the rejection thesis to be valid now the pullback in is we should be in the second trend leg which will complete the return to 4.23. If it's the second trend leg it can't be weaker than the first. The first was extremely consistent.
From my perspective that's the bear bet. It's really specific for me at this point. If the bear thesis is going to be good we're inside a 1.61 head fake. The 1.61 is retesting and when it is rejected for a second time we're into a strong downmove to where the false breakout started.
What it would take from the prices we currently are to turn me into a hyper raving bull that was discussing different bubble moves that may be about to build up is not a lot at this point. It would take very little to convince me to start to buy all the dips with tight stops and it'd not take all that much longer of that working for me to say it was extremely likely all the implied bear risk was behind us and it's all rockets and emojis for the next two years.
I think when it comes to what the next big swings will be in markets it's important to be very objective because it's wild just how easily juxtaposed ideas can make sense. For example, AI. One could make a bulletproof case that we should expect a productivity boom based on AI. Lots of people can do much more. But you can make the inverse forecast that AI will be deflationary. Bringing prices down. Creating job losses. As jobs are lost, less money is spent - especially if things are deflationary because you can buy it cheaper later. Less money being spent is less business income and more jobs lost. Companies that survived would likely main use AI and it's easy to see how all that could end up being bad for markets.
There are a lot of things like could go either way like that and have polarised reactions in the market but something related to AI is almost certainly going to happen. If AI advancements don't stall out rapidly they're going to start making real changes in the things happening in the world - this could easily justify a bubble or it could put prices into a race to zero.
Then there's weird things like what happens when AIs become more and more of the trading volume - surely that's coming ... right? What will they do? It's something you can again make binary extreme cases for. You could make a case that the AIs would notice patterns of a topping market and start to trade in a way that brought about a crash. Or you could argue AIs might start to engage in some form of reward hacking and the way to optimise success is to drive the market vertical.
I don't really see the point in narrative based analysis but if you do a thought experiment where you imagine the market either has crashed or has doubled rapidly it's now easier than it ever has been to find different viable ways you could work backwards to how events complimented that.
It's wise to be agnostic and evidence based while we're at such a big decision level because the potential to be wrong big is so great and the likelihood you'll be bluffed into thinking you're right just at the worst moment is so high. Maybe bulls have had that now. But even if we sell and make a new low, this may turn out to be a second leg of a bear trap and be the low- being wrong from there as a bear would be even worse. Runs to new highs could come before a crash.
If and when the decision is made it should be easy to make money. The 4.23 break would be far better to make money. The trend lasting over a year. A bear break would be trickier with the ups and downs of a bear market but lucrative for the correct strategies. The important thing is being equally acceptant of either outcome - and also accept the reality that neither of the implied outcomes may happen. Which would be a huge anti-climax for me. Really would. If whatever happens next is vanilla, I'd feel a bit cheated.
The 4.23 rejection off a 1.61 spike out would be a very exceptional thing. It should be evidenced by exceptional action.
If the bear trend is not persistent, there's a good chance it's not working. Up-trending through the resistance levels would make the bear case indefensible in my opinion and in the event of a typical 4.23 break make being bear bias into the future certain to fail no matter how good you are at it.
The down move has a lot of proving it to do yet before it crosses from an expected move in a bullish pullback to a real threat of a trend break.
At this point both would look exactly the same - what we see in the coming week is likely to be more telling.
SPX500 Quick Market Outlook – May 23, 2025 | 15m ChartPosted by Wavervanir_International_LLC
Today's session shows bearish continuation patterns despite a temporary bounce. We're currently trading just below the equilibrium level, with price rejecting from the 0.5 and 0.618 retracement zone. The bearish OB (Order Block) above continues to act as a ceiling.
🔍 Key Observations:
Price action is forming lower highs under resistance.
Volume profile and Smart Money Concepts (SMC) suggest distribution near the 5787–5794 zone.
Break below 5766.41 (daily ORB low) could open the path to 5721.75 – 1.618 extension.
Bullish invalidation only above 5793.80, where price would regain control above the mid-FVG and EMA cluster.
⚠️ Watch List:
Key levels: 5787.44 (pivot), 5761.17 (support), 5721.75 (target)
Bias: Bearish unless price reclaims 5795+ with volume
Trigger: Confirmation via 15m candle close below 5766 and breakdown in volume structure
Stay adaptive. The market structure is still forming, and liquidity sweeps can occur.
Full Bear Break PlansToday we took out our second important support level and have sold off strong under it. We're in a rally as I write this but it's still inside the expected corrective range.
We still have not net where I'd expect critical supports to be around 5500 but at this point KI feel we do have enough info to make a forecast of what a crash would probably look like.
People always think crash forecasts are hard to make. Top forecasts are hard to make. Accurate forecasts on when a crash break will or will not happen are hard to make. When it comes to the actual swings of a crash when they happen - historically always been very simple to make. If the bull trap low and high is known, the crash levels have always been foreseeable.
For example, when this low and high was known in 2007, all the important levels and the low of the 2008 / 2009 move could be mapped out.
This isn't an isolated case. It's happened in all previous crashes. If you follow my work you'll have seen me trade important levels in drops / lows many times and it's always based on some derivative of this.
If we know the high/low of the bull trap then we can identify the important break level and map out all the levels to the downside that would typically hit.
We can know the zones where there's the risk of this and also know early if the bear setup is failing.
If SPX was going to make a classic break it'd be quite easy to approximate the classic swings we'd have now.
The first continent for this is a wick rejection on the monthly chart, and ideally in the last part of the month. This may be underway now. The selling has to stick with us either going lower or at least holding down - but if things keep going as they have recently we'll have the wick candle.
I recently showed how we tend to have the failure of bullish wick candles before a trend break. In that setup we usually see a big bullish wick candle. Often an attempt to rally and rejection so we have opposing wick candles (bull wick is usually bigger) and after this comes a bearish engulfing candle which is bigger than all the candles around it and takes out the wick low.
That move would take us to about 4500. And almost certainly be news driven.
From here we usually enter into a period of choppy action. It feels bullish and bearish but it's really just going sideways. Often this will end with two big bluffs. First a bluff at being about to break to the downside and then a big spike out of the recent highs.
This choppy action would likely go on for a few months in total with a high somewhere around 5000.
That'd be the last major bull trap and from there we'd start to head into the crash section. During this section we'd travel as much as the full bear swing from high to the current low had taken but we'd do it in a fraction of the time. Over the space of a couple months we'd make a massive news supported capitulation to under the 2022 low.
That'd then complete a 50% drop from the high. Even in extremely bearish setups we tend to get a bounce from around the 50% off the high level and we also tend to get a bounce when we spike out an obvious support zone - so whatever the overall move would be, if and when the 2022 low was spiked out this is around where I'd expect an important low.
This is a step continent trade plan. We can define a marker and if it hits then the bias is towards the next marker.
The first marker was there would be a monthly wick candle.
The following marker would be there is a rejection and close down end of month.
Third marker would be a massive bear candle taking out the wick low.
Fourth marker would be the "Recovery" being muted and stalling out around 500.
If all of those things happen, then the risk of a following breakout becoming a crash event would be high.
In theory, we could be about 6 months from a major crash and we could put in a series of specific markers as warning signs along the way.
First warning sign is there being no V recovery to this selling and the monthly candle closing with a wick.
This post touches on various things that have been explained in far more detail in recent posts. It'd be recommended to read those for full context.
SPX - SELLPrice broke key support levels. Aiming for SPX to continue the sell side momentum and fill the gap.
SPX Down/Gold UpWIth the move down on SP500 overnight, gold rallied. Both look like they may be nearing the end of the move down so caution is necessary.
US500 at a Crossroads: Diamond Pattern in PlayUS500 at a Crossroads: Diamond Pattern in Play
US500 is forming a small diamond pattern, but the risk is high since the pattern is still developing and could evolve further.
The price shows signs of a decline, but a strong breakout is needed to confirm the movement.
Diamond patterns are typically trend continuation setups, but the final direction depends on where the breakout happens.
Both scenarios are well explained on the chart
PS: The best approach is to wait for the breakout before taking action.
THIS SETUP IS VALID ONLY FOR TODAY
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
