S&P500 Channel Up going straight to 6670.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a 3-month Channel Up since the May 12 candle. All of this time, it has been supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and as long as it holds, the new Bullish Leg is expected.
The last two rose by +7.06%, and ahead of a new 1D MACD Bullish Cross, that gives us a medium-term Target of 6670.
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US500FU trade ideas
Dot Com Crash CorrelationThe following is a fractal of the lead up to the Dot Com crash, and the aftermath. It correlates extremely well with the current landscape. The TLDR is that if history repeats and we break the trendline, we'll form a blow off top in 2026 and crash spectacularly in 2027 (I'm guessing around May, a common dump month). If everyone is calling for the crash now, it means it's not over yet.
It's time to face the music. AI isn't profitable, it's an excuse to fire workers with high salaries. When there is no one left to fire and productivity/quality drops the answer will be clear: A program that is wrong 20% of the time is completely useless. The errors are a feature, not a bug, the AI can not work without hallucinating and hallucinating causes errors. Look it up if you don't believe me
Fundamentals:
-Rate cuts will keep this alive long enough to form a blow off top
-Extreme uncertainty from tariffs to manufacturing can account for that mid term drop
-AI Companies holding up the market make 0 net profit and have no realistic plans to make ROI
-The vast majority of AI companies have not made ROI
-Generative AI costs more to run than it makes. By their own very flawed estimate, OpenAI will take over 10 years to break even. In related news, snapchat just made ROI and they were founded in 2011, their stock is down 90%.
S&P 500 extends rally despite macro concernsThe 5% Apple rally aside, it is all about rate cut bets vs. strong earnings. So far, the latter has helped to keep US markets supported near all-time highs. But if macro concerns increase further, investors' perception about future earnings growth will weaken. And with that, we could see some cracks in expensive stocks.
Looking at the hourly chart of the SPX500, the US benchmark was testing a potential resistance zone in the shaded region between 6345 to 6367, an area which was previously support. Above this zone, 6392 is the next level of potential resistance and then the all-time high of 6436 comes into focus next.
earlier, the index bounced after a failed breakdown below the trend line shown on the chart. Another potential test of the trendline could see the index break lower. Short-term support is seen around 6319 then 6277.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
S&P 500 Futures Hold Ground After Tariffs Take EffectS&P 500 Futures Rise After New Tariffs Kick In
President Trump's sweeping tariffs officially took effect just after midnight, escalating trade tensions with dozens of countries. While negotiations are ongoing behind the scenes to secure exemptions and reduce tariff rates, market reactions are already underway.
Technical Outlook
S&P 500 Futures continue to show bullish momentum as long as price trades above 6289, with the potential to retest the All-Time High (ATH).
To confirm a move toward 6453, price must close above 6437 on the 1H chart.
🔻 However, if the price stabilizes below 6389, a correction toward 6365 becomes more likely.
Key Levels:
🔹 Resistance: 6424 – 6453
🔹 Support: 6365 – 6341
US500 Short Setup: Bearish Momentum Toward 6205Currently holding a short position on the US500 from the 6358 level, based on Smart Money Concepts. Price has tapped into a premium zone within a higher time frame supply area, showing clear signs of distribution. Liquidity has been swept above recent highs, and a shift in market structure confirms bearish intent. I’m targeting the 6205 level, expecting a rapid downside move in the very short term as smart money drives price toward discounted levels.
SPX500 | Holding Above Key Pivot – Path to New ATH or Pullback?SPX500 Overview
S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% early Monday, with traders preparing for a week filled with key economic events. While tariff concerns remain in the background, market focus is firmly on upcoming U.S. inflation and retail sales data.
Technical Outlook:
The price has stabilized above 6389, indicating the potential for the bullish trend to extend toward 6425. A breakout above this level could lead to a new all-time high.
Conversely, a 1H close below 6389 would signal a potential bearish move toward 6365.
Resistance: 6413, 6425, 6442
Support: 6365, 6341, 6321
Big CorrectionThe S&P index.
The chart shows the potential end of the final rally from the 2009 low.
Currently, with this rally from the recent 4,800 low, we are still in a correction period that will end in late October (highs and lows are irrelevant), & We have a date coming up in August so let's see what happens there.
After this period, we will have a rally combined with uncertainty and unjustified speculative movements (bubble) that could take us to the final peak, which I expect in 2026.
This remains a possibility, but don't base your trades on it. However, caution is often good.
SPX500 - what's next?Further to my previous idea on SPX.
SPX respected the Resistance at FR 161.8 at 6400.
Price went down and reverted form SMA200 (4H)
Now price has completed the Perfect Gartley Pattern and reached point D.
If (against fundamentals) price reverts down from there and breaks down through SMA50 (4h), I will consider it as Bearish Validation and I will expect correction movement, which cen go down to ca 6000.
Just my humble opinion
US500: Rebound Setup After Sharp Pullback – Key Support HoldingUS500 has experienced a strong corrective move after an extended bullish run but is now showing signs of stabilizing near a key support area. This zone aligns with both technical retracement levels and the market's reaction to fundamental shifts—particularly the dovish repricing of the Fed following weak US jobs data.
Technical Analysis (4H Chart)
Pattern: After a strong uptrend, price faced a steep correction, forming a potential short-term reversal setup.
Current Level: 6,235, holding above the 6,217 support zone.
Key Support Levels:
6,217 (immediate support; key defense zone for bulls).
6,171 (38.2% retracement, secondary support if deeper pullback occurs).
Resistance Levels:
6,272 (23.6% retracement and initial resistance).
6,360 (upper resistance zone and retest of recent breakdown).
6,429/6,436 (recent high and target if bullish momentum resumes).
Projection: A rebound from current levels could push US500 back toward 6,360–6,430 if support holds.
Fundamental Analysis
Bias: Neutral-to-bullish as macro drivers favor a recovery from pullback.
Key Fundamentals:
Fed Policy: Weak US jobs (+73K) and downward revisions have solidified rate cut expectations (~75% probability in September), boosting equity sentiment.
Inflation: Market awaits US CPI; softer data would further support equities.
Tariffs: While Trump’s tariffs create a medium-term risk for earnings, immediate Fed easing bets outweigh these concerns.
Risk Sentiment: Global risk remains supported by lower yields and optimism about Fed easing.
Risks:
Hot US CPI could reverse cut expectations, pressuring equities.
Geopolitical risks or tariff escalation could trigger renewed selling.
Key Events:
US CPI and PPI.
Fed speeches and rate expectations.
Earnings reports from key US companies.
Leader/Lagger Dynamics
US500 is a leader, driving global risk sentiment and influencing risk-sensitive assets like AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and JPY crosses.
Summary: Bias and Watchpoints
US500 is neutral-to-bullish, stabilizing at key support (6,217) after a sharp correction. Fed cut expectations and risk-on sentiment support the upside scenario, targeting 6,360–6,430 if US CPI aligns with softer inflation. However, a hot CPI print could invalidate this rebound and trigger another leg lower.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of August 8, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the trading activity of the previous week, the S&P 500 Index exhibited a predominantly bullish trend and is poised to retest the completed Outer Index Rally target of 6420, as outlined in last week’s Daily Chart Analysis. The primary objective now is to target subsequent levels, specifically the next Outer Index Rally target of 6620 and beyond.
It is crucial to recognize that the current price movement may initiate a substantial pullback from the present price action, either before or following the attainment of the Outer Index Rally peak at 6420.
S&P500: Stocks and Tariff, what is next?US indices were bullish so far despite the NEW HUGE tariffs. As the tariffs become in play by Aug 1st, we shall see its effect in Q3 results, Q2 earnings beats, but will Q3 do ?
Disclaimer: This content is NOT a financial advise, it is for educational purpose only.
SPX500 Dips Ahead of NFP as Tariff Risks RiseSPX: S&P 500 Dips to Close July — Still Positive for the Month Amid Tariff Tensions & Fed Uncertainty
The S&P 500 retreated in the final session of July, weighed down by renewed tariff concerns and lingering uncertainty around the Fed’s next move. Despite the late pullback, the index remains positive for the month overall.
Looking ahead, non-farm payrolls (NFP) and U.S. jobs data are expected to have a strong impact on market direction. In addition, August 1st marks a key date for potential tariff developments, which could trigger further volatility.
Technical Outlook – SPX500
The index has dropped approximately 2.5% since yesterday and maintains a bearish bias as long as it trades below 6283. If the price continues to slide, the next downside target is 6246, with further support at 6223.
However, if the price manages to close above 6289 on the 1H timeframe, it could trigger a bullish recovery toward 6320 and 6341.
Pivot Line: 6283
Support Levels: 6246 • 6223
Resistance Levels: 6320 • 6341
Potential bearish drop?S&P500 is rising towards the pivot, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 6,362.20
1st Support: 6,214.78
1st Resistance: 6,436.72
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Disclaimer:
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S&P 500 Obeying Elliott Wave TheoryThis is an update of a previous publication. A Flat occurred for Wave 2(Green) and if Wave 3 is over, we can expect a Zigzag for Wave 4. Zigzags have 3 waves. A confirmation at its current location will trigger a sell for Wave 4(Green).
For more information on the same, go to:
Warning: SPX500 May Have Peaked—Here’s What the Charts SayThe S&P 500 (SPX500) may have reached its peak. In this video, I reveal the technical evidence pointing to a potential reversal—including monthly bearish divergence, daily and weekly reversal candles, and confirmation from key indicators.
This isn’t just noise—these signals align across timeframes, suggesting a shift in momentum that could lead to significant downside. I’ll walk you through the charts, explain the implications for traders and investors, and highlight critical support levels to watch.
Thank you for watching and have a great trading week. Cheers!!
The worst drops often come later!Don’t be fooled by the first crash… The worst drops often come later in a bear market.
Let’s break down the brutal truth about the 2008 GFC and what it teaches us today. 🧵
1.
In the 2007–2009 bear market, the S&P 500 had 7 failed rallies before finally bottoming.
Every bounce looked like the bottom — and every one was a trap.
👇
2.
The early drops were steep:
🔻 Down 11%
🔻 Down 17%
But the most violent crashes came after those…
Near the END — not the beginning — of the bear market.
3.
Later stage declines:
❌ Down 28%
❌ Down 36%
❌ Down 29%
That’s when capitulation kicked in.
Investors gave up. Fear took over.
4.
Capitulation volume isn’t a guaranteed bottom.
It feels like it’s over.
But if fundamentals haven’t turned and the trend isn’t broken, the bear can still bite — hard.
5.
Final crashes are like cliffs:
Markets are exhausted.
Hope is crushed.
And that’s finally when the real bottom shows up.
6.
The lesson?
Bear markets are full of traps.
Relief rallies can fool even seasoned pros.
Stay patient. Wait for trend confirmation. Don’t chase fake bottoms.
7.
📉 The biggest crashes usually happen at the end of the bear market.
That’s the final flush — and it sets the stage for true opportunity.
Learn from the past. Don’t get trapped. Stay sharp.