GENERATIONAL unwind in stock markets starting.GENERATIONAL unwind in stock markets starting.
This capital rotation is a VERY rare macro event, which very few traders have previously lived through.
Is your financial advisor AWARE of this?
US500FU trade ideas
Capitulation Might be Close, but A Big Low Could Be Also.I've explained for a while my idea if 5500 isn't support for SPX then we see a capitulation period to the 5100 sort of area.
I think the case for this is picking up increasing merit. For a while I've not really been sure what to expect if that happened. My natural tendency to fade moves would make me naturally bullish but some different outcomes I considered would have that move being an important break and us only consolidating before heading lower.
With the way all of this is shaping up, I think if I see a capitulation period now I have a strong bull bias. I do think we might be setting up a much larger decline overall but a sharp drop here would usually give some sort of bull trap.
There are different ranges of bull traps. Shallow, mid and deep and spike out. Modern day markets run perpetually on hard-mode so it's reasonable to expect the most tricky one.
Big bull bias for the immediate term if we put in a capitulation swing.
I built up a position into the rally today. Which was not a lot of fun during sections of the day and harrowing for a moment late in the day but has me positioned well into the rally. I'm looking for a move down to under 5200 and close to 5100. My target would be 5150 or so at biggest with aggressive locking in near 5200.
If this move hits (especially if it hits with bad news), will be super bullish for the near term - but I would consider this an important bear break if it comes.
The Stock Market Decline Appears to be only in the US as of nowLast week on one of my member live videos I pointed out to the attendees that European markets were currently at, or very close to their All-Time highs...whereas in the US, we've entered the technical definition of a stock market correction...(down 10%). If you're so inclined to Google an economic calendar, it also appears the economic metrics like CPI, unemployment, etc... appear much better as well. There's an old adage in the markets.... "When the US sneezes, the global economy catches a cold" . However, at this very moment in time, the only thing that appears sick is the US. Maybe that changes with time. I suspect that will be the case...but in any event, one thing that is clear is that our stock market indices are signaling that whatever economic sickness is to be contracted, it will have originated here...in the United States.
That is certainly a new phenomenon.
For the past couple years I have been warning my members (and followers here on Trading View) of a long-term top in the stock markets. Week after week in my trading room, I have commented that I believe I have all constituent waves accounted for, to the best of my ability, to say with a high degree of confidence that a super-cycle wave (III) has topped .
What we have lacked is the price action to confirm that statement. This morning, I cannot tell you we have confirmation. That confirming probability only comes when price declines below the area of the wave 4 of one lesser degree. That area is outlined in the SPX daily chart entitled the "Must Hold Region". We are not there yet, nor do I think price makes a bee-line there in one shot. Therefore, I am NOT in panic mode this morning because I do believe we need a retrace higher and only that retracement's structure will inform us the higher probability of future price subdivisions....(higher or lower).
Panic is the necessary trader behavior needed to decline in such fashion as I believe a super cycle wave (IV) will start out. However personally, I do not think it's today. Futures are red this morning and closer to the recent lows than last week...the headlines surrounding the stock market appear very negative...but as of this morning, the MACD indicator on intraday charts is saying this type of sentiment is getting slightly weaker and NOT making new lows.
Therefore, I continue to maintain the price and technical indications tell me a minor B is either currently underway, or will be confirmed in the short term. Until those parameters get flipped, I'll reserve my panic (so to speak) for the c of (c) of intermediate (A) into the must hold region later this year... where it will probably be justified at that time.
Best to all,
Chris
Liberation morningMarkets did sell off last night and the VIX did start breaking up, so I believe another leg down is upon us. However, the chance for a C wave rally from the lows is possible, so caution is necessary.
Stocks jittery as markets await tariffs Volatility was again the name of the game in equity markets as investors braced for President Donald Trump’s impending tariff announcement, which promises to reshape global trade dynamics. With uncertainty swirling around the scope and impact of his so-called reciprocal tariffs, there remains little consensus on how markets will react as the final deliberations unfold.
A few headlines that have come out:
Trump administration official has confirmed that Amazon has put in a bid to buy TikTok
Tesla Inc. jumped 5% on hopes Elon Musk will refocus on the carmaker as a news report suggested his time as a top adviser to Trump may end soon.
US tariffs will be in bands of 10%, 15% and 20% -- Sky News
The bands will differ by both country and industry depending on how the White House views barriers to trade.
CNBC: TRUMP ADMINISTRATION CONSIDERING REVOCATION OF TARIFF EXEMPTIONS FOR CHEAP SHIPMENTS FROM CHINA - SOURCE
Trump auto tariffs due to take effect at midnight - Reuters
The key resistance area to watch today is between 5670 to 5695 - as shaded in yellow on the chart. This zone was previously support and has now turned into a bit of resistance, capping today's gains. Will the selling pressure resume from here or do we go back above it?
It all depends on severity of tariffs.
In the event we go lower, then the area between 5500 to 5550 is the key support zone to watch.
In the event the market go higher, and break through 5670 to 5695 zone, then the 200-day average and prior resistance near 5770-5787 will come into focus next.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to resistance area of 5830.Colleagues, the previous forecast is not canceled, but I decided to update it a bit in the form of a new forecast. I have set the target a little closer, so that I don't have to wait too long.
I believe that the price will continue its upward movement and will reach the area of 5830. It is quite possible that the price will correct to the area of 5597, completing the wave “2” of small order.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
S&P to find buyers at current market price?US500 - Intraday
Closed the day little net changed.
An overnight negative theme in Equities has led to a lower open this morning.
Immediate signals are hard to interpret.
Bespoke resistance is located at 5853.
Bespoke support is located at 5536.
Dips continue to attract buyers.
We look to Buy at 5609 (stop at 5572)
Our profit targets will be 5719 and 5853
Resistance: 5719 / 5737 / 5853
Support: 5616 / 5607 / 5536
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S&P500 Last time it made that bottom was 18 months ago.S&P500 / US500 is trading inside a multi year Channel Up that goes back to October 2022.
The index almost hit the Channel bottom this week and immediately we see a rebound attempt.
It may be under the 1week MA50 but this is not disastrous as the patterns last bottom was formed exactly under it on October 23rd 2023, 18 months ago.
On top of that, the 1week RSI was exactly where it is now, on the 40.00 Support, bearish enough to call for a long term buy.
In addition, the both bearish waved leading to both bottoms were almost -11%. This high symmetry potential suggests that the bullish wave that will follow may be of a similar +28.34% rise.
This is a unique opportunity to buy and target 7000.
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S&P entering rough path in 2025 It seems S&P is going through a soft bounce back after selloff towards 10W MA around 58-5900 levels. This could be the strong rejection leading to summer lows around 52-5300 range .
If Macro is promising could resume bull run by providing good entry otherwise a recovery towards 5600 which eventually sees 4800 or 2021 ATH making a long range for 4-5 years providing 2026 to reach towards 5800 level by end of December 2026 and giving a new ATH only in 2027 .
SPX weekly sell off confirmedBetter have some cash in hand, if SPX drop more, BTC will drop even more.
S&P 500 Update - 5200 on the horizonFrom an Elliott perspective the market appears to be in a 4th Wave correction. The a and b waves have completed and now the c wave is playing out.
If we look to a 1.618 extension of the a wave , the target projection is 5200.
The bias is to the downside and the bearish sentiment continues to 5200 and possibly an overshoot to lower levels.
potential next target of 8000 for SPXAnalysis of the Chart:
Bull Run Identified:
Two bullish trends are highlighted after 10% corrections.
After each pullback of ~10%, the market resumed its upward trajectory.
Correction Zones:
First correction (~10.29%) occurred in mid-2023.
Second correction (~10.27%) happened recently in early 2025.
These corrections are typical in bull markets, indicating healthy price consolidations before further upside.
Next Target:
The chart suggests a potential next target of 8000 for SPX.
This implies a continued bullish trend and significant upside.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 has experienced multiple bull runs after 10% corrections, indicating a strong uptrend.
If historical patterns repeat, the market could move towards 8000, provided macroeconomic conditions remain supportive.
Looking for a minimum of ES 5850In the days to come our initial pattern off the recent has the high probability to get into the 5850 area.
Here I will be looking for a pullback.
If this pullback can be viewed as corrective in it's structure then I expect the subdivisions and pathway on my ES4Hr chart should follow suit. However, if the pullback turns out to be impulsive, I will be looking for follow through for either Minor B having completed early, or the alternate wave (iv). If that sort of price action were to materialize, it's Friday's low of 5651.25 that must support any drop if we're to continue to subdivide higher and have this minor B take more time.
SPX: tariffs combined with inflationInflation expectations are on the rise again in the US. As markets are closely watching developments with trade tariffs, in combination with increasing inflation, the sentiment ended the week in a red zone. During the week, the S&P 500 was struggling to sustain a bit of positive sentiment, however, Friday's trading session brought back significant sell off of stocks. The week started at 5.780, but it ended at 5.580, losing 1,97% on Friday. In the last six weeks, the index spent five weeks in negative territory.
Tech companies were the ones that dragged the rest of the market to the downside. META and Amazon were down by 4,3%, Apple dropped by 2,66%, Tesla lost 3,51% in value. Trade tariffs are still a cloud which brings high uncertainty to the market. News reported that both Canada and the European Union are considering reciprocal measures as a response to the imposed US tariffs. The US Administration announced last week potential 25% tariffs on all car imports to the US. As long as this kind of trade war is in the open space, it could not be expected that the market would consolidate and stabilize. In this sense, further high volatility might be expected. In the week ahead, the NFP and unemployment data for March will be posted, so this would be a day to watch.
$DXY 10% Declines along with $SPX declines from 1987-1995In case you are wondering if the drop in the $USDOL TVC:DXY US Dollar of 10% from a high is a sign of something major going on in the stock market, it reminded me of research I did right when I got out of college in 1987.
Here's a quick overview of that pattern of TVC:DXY declines of 10% against the backdrop of SP:SPX or S&P500 Index declines at that time. The 1987 stock market crash is on the far left of this graph and gets the chart started for you to review.
The 10% drops from highs in the TVC:DXY index are labeled with yellow arrows and there were 9 of them across this time series from 1987-1995.
We can imagine how a Non-US investor would handle both a drop in the TVC:DXY and a drop in the SP:SPX , but a drop of both the TVC:DXY and SP:SPX of 10% together would mean a loss of 20% for the non-US investor. That is a painful loss and perhaps more than investors wanted to risk.
Historically, it was a good time to look for a stock market bottom AFTER a drop in the TVC:DXY index and the green boxes at the top show the risk of a deeper decline in the SP:SPX was minimal after this scenario.
So the end result of this analysis is that the Dollar can be viewed as a contrarian indicator after a meaningful decline, as in 10% in this time frame. Look for other signs of a market bottom, especially using my TVC:VIX signals (5 point spike indicator and VIX75% retracement) to help define a bottom. The VIX75 signal triggered on Monday, March 24th, indicating that the panic from the selloff had moderated to a point enough to signal that the panic was over.
Do some more research for yourself and see if the TVC:DXY drop was an "asset allocation" shift as US investors bailed out of US stocks to invest in non-US stocks or was it another wave of non-US investors dumping US stocks to cut risk.
Either way, know what you are investing in and question everything. These days, it is more important to be educated and use TradingView to chart and research the past will help you be a more educated investor.
Cheers,
Tim
S&P500: Recovered the 1W MA50. Best buy opportunity of 2025.The S&P500 is marginally neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 47.606, MACD = -47.070, ADX = 35.637) as it is in the process of recovery from the previous oversold condition. What the index did recover however, and which is a massive buy signal, is the 1W MA50. Technically this trendline held two weeks ago, despite marginally crossing under it, and provided the basis for a new long term bottom. Basically it is the exact same pattern as the October 23rd 2023 bottom, which was also a HL on the 3 year Channel Up, declined also by -11% and the 1W RSI was almost on the same level as today's low (the S1 level).
Every bullish wave inside this 3 year pattern hit at least the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. Given that this bottom was made on the 0.618 Channel Fib level, like both of the last two HL (Aug 5th 2024, April 15th 2024), we expect a test of the Channel's top by the end of the year. A TP = 6,700 would still be under the 2.0 Fib extension and that's out long term target.
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S&P500 - Donald Trump Is Crashing Markets!S&P500 ( TVC:SPX ) is starting a correction:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Since Donald Trump was elected the markets have been super volatile and clearly not too easy to trade. But now it seems like bears are slowly taking over the entire U.S. stock market after we just saw a drop of -10% within a couple of days and a correction becomes more and more likely.
Levels to watch: $6.100, $4.800
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
This doesn't look good for SPX500USDHi traders,
The price action of SPX500USD last week went exactly as what I've said in my outlook.
I said we could see a (corrective) upmove to the higher Weekly FVG. It depends if the upmove is corrective or impulsive what would be the move after that.
But also fundamentally we could see more longer term downside for this pair.
Price went corrective up, rejected from the Weekly FVG higher and dropped!
So next week we could see more downside for this pair.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a small correction up on a lower timeframe to trade shorts.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
SPX500 near term: watch 5670 for key support for a little bounceVolatility continues thanks to Trump and Tariffs.
SPX500 just hit a key support zone around 5670.
Bulls need a good bounce here even if going lower.
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S&P500: Recovery has started and the next stop is the 1D MA50.S&P500 is marginally neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 45.213, MACD = -61.280, ADX = 30.163) as it's recovered from Friday's bearish sentiment and already crossed above the 0.236 Fibonacci level. This rebound made Monday's low a Double Bottom and since the 1D RSI is on a HL bullish divergence, we expect a strong 1 month rally to start. The first target is the 1D MA50 slightly over the 0.5 Fib mark (TP1 = 5,835) and after a small correction, the 0.786 Fib (TP2 = 6,000), which is also the top of the 5 month Bull Flag.
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BUY AND HOLD UNTIL OCTOBER 2025Price is scheduled to break above the current high for a 7-month run, price top is expected between 6588 and 6680 range for a steep correction. Tariffs and recession chants will have their day but history shows post war cycles never go south.
Trade safe, good luck
