Whipsaw Fridaymarket is gearing up for a larger move down in my opinion, but one more whipsaw to finish looks likely today. I expect a move down and then a strong rally to finish the final wave 5.
US500FU trade ideas
S&P500: Hit its 4H MA50. Can it provide a price push?S&P500 (SPX) is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 52.949, MACD = 19.450, ADX = 31.038) as the index just hit its 4H MA50, which is holding since April 22nd. This is at the bottom of the 4H Channel Up so as long as it holds, the signal is bullish. In the meantime the index again hit the P1 level, which was previously a Resistance. As long as this demand zone holds, we are aiming at the R2 level (TP = 5,790).
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
S&P500 Short: Update to Wave StructureAs mentioned, this is the 4th attempt to catch the peak for S&P500 (and Nasdaq). Over here, I break down the details of the wave structure to the subminuette level at the final wave. I believe this to be the final peak given that I do not see any more extension possible without changing the entire up-move wave labelling.
As usual, manage your risk and use a stop loss above the end of Wave Y.
Good luck!
7100 pips by September 2025We are going to see a massive rally during Spring and Summer 2025 in Sp500. A magnificient blow off top where people will talk around the world about how good is going to be our economy.
I don´t want to talk about what is coming next.
S&P500 Short Update: Break of TrendlineThis is an update to my short idea 2 days ago. I believed that the reversal for S&P500 has already begun and that I expect a move down from the breaking of the lower trendline.
Apologies for the audio as I am testing out a new setup (with a new portable microphone).
Still looking for downside on SPX500USDHi traders,
Last week SPX500USD consolidated the whole week so nothing changed for the outlook. It looks like price is forming a leading diagonal (wave 1).
So next week we could see a (corrective) move down from the Daily FVG above.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for price come into the Daily FVG above and a change in orderflow to bearish, a small impulse wave down and a small correction up on a lower timeframe to trade (short term) shorts.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
SPX: US-China tariffs talkOne of the most important weekly events was the FOMC meeting, where its members held the interest rates unchanged for one more time. Many analysts are in agreement that the Fed made the right decision, without jumping-into-conclusion regarding the potential negative effects of trade tariffs. However, this topic was addressed by the Fed Chair Powell, at his after-the-meeting address to the public, where he noted a confidence that the Fed will react immediately in case that stronger negative effects of trade tariffs reflect in the economy. Here, he noted once again the dual mandate of the Fed - to keep full unemployment and inflation at the targeted 2%. The market reacted positively to his speech, bringing the US equity markets to the higher levels. The S&P 500 gained during the week, from 5.586 to 5.713. However, Friday's trading session was with a negative sentiment, considering forthcoming US-China tariffs talk, expected to start soon.
At the same time, the US managed to settle trade tariffs at the level of 10% with the United Kingdom. Analysts are commenting that this might be a general level for the majority of other countries. However, the US President published on social networks that he hopes to settle tariffs with China at 80%, which is still too high. Considering forthcoming talks between two governments and also taking into account that China is one of the most important trading partners with the US, the market sensitivity will continue to be in an on-off mode. This means that the market volatility will most certainly continue in the coming period.
[𝟬𝟱/𝟭𝟮] 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝗦𝗣𝗫 𝗚𝗘𝗫 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗯𝗼𝗼𝗸🔍 IF/THEN QUICK GAMMA PLAYBOOK
IF > 5825 THEN path to 5900 → stall/profit-taking likely
IF > 5900 THEN path to first 5950, then 6000 → gamma squeeze extension zone
IF < 5825 THEN path to 5700 → test of transition zone support
Chop Zone: — re-entry = short-term balance/testing zone
IF < 5700 THEN path to 5500 → gamma flush / dealer unwind risk
🧭 𝗘𝗫𝗧𝗘𝗡𝗗𝗘𝗗 𝗭𝗢𝗡𝗘 𝗠𝗔𝗣/b]
✅ Gamma Flip Level
5700 → This is the confirmed Gamma Flip level = High Volatility Zone = HVL. We are comfortably above it, confirming positive gamma environment.
🧱 Major Call Walls / Resistance to upside from here
5900 → Significant call resistance zone (highlighted across GEX, profile, and /matrix command). 5825–5900 = Current rally zone → expected stall at 5900 (Profit-taking zone)5950 → Next mid-large positive gamma wall to the upside, mid-station between mounts. Dealers short gamma, adding fuel to breakout.6000 → Positive Gamma squeeze continuation target. Gamma squeeze intensifies → likely extends to 6000.🟦 Transition / Chop Zone
5700–5825 → Previous chop range. Retrace could test this before renewed upside.Currently outside and breaking up from this zone, indicating trend initiation.
Balance zone from prior structure.
Expect fade setups if price dips back in.
Needs catalyst or strong sell flow to re-enter meaningfully.
🛡️ Major Put Supports to the downside
5700 → = HVL, also aligned with pTrans and Put support.Dealer unwind risk, downside opens.5500 → Key level if the 5700 zone fails — “total denial zone” of current FOMO.
-----------------------------
This week’s SPX setup remains decisively bullish from a gamma perspective. The GEX profile shows strong positive gamma, with institutional and dealer hedging flows firmly positioned to support continued upside—especially into Friday’s OPEX. The environment is ideal for a controlled melt-up: volatility is softening, implied volatility is trending lower, and there’s no sign of panic in the options market.
Put pricing skew is also declining, which suggests reduced fear and a shift toward more aggressive call buying—another sign of bullish sentiment. Dealer positioning implies that any upward momentum is likely to be chased and hedged into, reinforcing the trend.
However, traders should stay alert: if SPX slips back below 5825, we may see a pause or retracement back into the 5700–5825 transition zone. Only a decisive break below 5700 would flip the gamma regime back to negative and open the door to real downside volatility.
SPX500 watch 5900 then 6103: Double Golden zone Was/Will be TOP?SPX500 with a ferocious recovery after tariff relief.
About to test a most important zone of its lifetime.
Double Golden zone of a Genesis plus a Covid pair.
Such a tight confluence of two major Goldens is rare.
It warned us of a top BEFORE Trump even won (click).
The retest could form a "Wave B" or "Bull Trap" lower high.
It is PROBABLE that we "Orbit" these high gravity objects for a while.
It is PLAUSIBLE that we "Blast" by them but have to retest soon after.
It is POSSIBLE that "wave B" ends here and we drop deep for "wave C".
I am personally a bull, but we should be PREPARED for a BULL TRAP.
==================
Previous Plots below
==================
5901 TOP warning:
5668 Tariff warning:
5100 Tariff Relief Entry:
===============================================
.
Reversal at the Stop ZoneAccording to balance rules, 5585 (the bottom of balance) should be the target. IF we get there, and break that low, the target will then open up to 5400 more or less. I talk about some bigger possibilities while looking at the futures chart
Today is oct 14th 1929 I have moved back to Long puts at 105%The chart posted was in the forecast written dec 8th 2024 We have now reached my targets of 5669 area I have been buying the dips in calls and made $ I am now 105 % long in the money puts and I do Not see a bottom until july once we break and a second bottom mid oct The market should see a drop of 38 % into july and form a small double bottom in oct at 41 % off the highs . I will move to 125 % long puts on a sell stop at 5300 even the math at 5334 is key Best of trades WAVETIMER
Whipsaw updateThey are trying to regain the channel. If they get above today's highs we are going to make one more high
S&P 500 Braces for a Drop to $5,100–$5,177: Correction Coming?S&P 500 Braces for a Drop to $5,100–$5,177: Is the Correction Coming?
SP500 Reached the target of $5,680 - $5,800 and is going into correction along with Bitcoin 🤔.
Before:
After:
➖ The S&P 500 could fall to the 5100–5177 range due to the following fundamental factors:
FOMC Meeting on May 7: Expected rate hold and potentially hawkish rhetoric from Powell could amplify fears of rate hikes, hitting growth stocks.
➖ Trade War: Uncertainty in U.S.-China negotiations and risks of new tariffs threaten supply chains and corporate profits.
➖ Weak Economy: GDP contraction (-0.3% in Q1), recession fears, and weak PMI data fuel pessimism.
➖ Corporate Earnings: Disappointing guidance from key companies (e.g., Apple, Tesla) could trigger sell-offs.
➖ Sentiment on X: Bearish sentiment reflects market caution.
➖ Global Risks: Retaliatory tariffs and rising gold prices signal a flight from U.S. assets.
Assumption: If the Fed on May 7 emphasizes inflation risks and delays rate cuts, and tariff news remains negative, the S&P 500 could break support at 5500 and reach 5100–5177 within 1–2 weeks, especially amid technical selling and market panic.
SPX 500 Downtrend MovementGreetings Traders this is my analysis on SPX500 and it is Short
📊 Overview:
Current price: 5,901 (in the opening zone of the short position).
The analysis points to a short strategy — the author predicts a price decline with the opening of a position between 6.009 and 6.023, aiming for 5.394–5.392.
🟩 Zone of resistance (Resistance level):
Major resistance level: 6,153.39
Price has reacted at that level in the past and has previously been rejected, making it a strong psychological and technical barrier.
🟨 Entry and Expectation Zone:
Open Position zone: 6.009–6.023 (brown zone)
Expected reaction: short signal, if the price is likely to bounce off the resistance and head lower
"First Top" and "Breakout" formations are observed, which is often a sign of a subsequent decline
🔻 Anticipated correction:
Target zone: 5.394–5.392
It is the previous levels of consolidation and the possible target of a short position
An arrow is shown predicting a price drop from the current level
🔴 Support Zone (Support Level):
Main support: 5,091.52
If the price breaks through the target level, it can even go down to this support
🧠 Technical elements:
Elliott Wave marks the completion of the impulse and corrective phase, suggesting the end of the upward wave
Impulsive movement and a drop in price indicate the possibility that the current correction will end and the price will move downwards again
A possible support area has already been tested, but it may be active again
🧩 Conclusion:
Strategy: short entry at ~6,010–6,020
Stop loss should be above 6,153 (above strong resistance)
Target: 5,394 (possible continuation of downward trend)
The plan is based on price action analysis, waves and recognition of key zones
Dear Traders like,comment let me know what do you think?
SP500 Time to be bearish againWatch out bulls, don't play hero. Bears are around the corner.
Probably gap up again tomorrow and push to 5937 and that's it because bears time is coming into play to take price down to 5760 and by the end of next week it should be around 5675 (if not sooner). Buckle up ladies and gentlemen we are going into a wild...wild ride.
Weekly chart reviewTaking a look at weekly charts, we are very close to important MA's. A move up is still possible past 5730, but I don't think it would last.
Stops Zone hitWe are in the stop zone after a fake breakdown. RSI showing bearish divergences on all mid time frames, so I think it will reverse from this level. I'm wrong over 5750
S&P500 Chasing a Retrace - Waiting for Equilibrium After Rally🗓️ Yesterday, I mentioned watching the S&P 500 for a retrace to find a potential long entry. But with the US-China tariff agreement announced, the market rallied hard 🚀—a clear positive for stocks. We didn’t get much of a pullback, and right now, I see the S&P 500 as overextended. I’m not looking to jump in at these premium levels. Instead, I’m waiting for a Fibonacci retrace back down into equilibrium on the current swing for a better opportunity. 👀
My plan: I’ll watch for a bearish break of structure to signal a retrace, then monitor price action as we approach support. If support holds and we get a bullish break of structure, that’s when I’ll look to get involved. 🔄
Just sharing my idea here—this isn’t financial advice! 📢
The S&P 500 Is About to Drop — The Real Rally Comes in July!S&P 500 Market Outlook: Navigating the Path to a Bullish Breakout by June 2025
At Vital Direction, we are committed to delivering precise and forward-looking market analysis rooted in deep technical expertise. Our current evaluation of the S&P 500 indicates that the recent upward movement is not the beginning of a true bull market. Rather, it reflects a counter-trend rally that is approaching exhaustion. We firmly believe that the market is preparing for a significant decline in the short term, followed by a prolonged sideways consolidation, before initiating a genuine, powerful bull market in late June 2025.
Elliott Wave Analysis: A Classic Counter-Trend Structure
Our Elliott Wave analysis suggests that the S&P 500’s recent rally has been corrective in nature, comprised of only three waves — a classic hallmark of a counter-trend move. This pattern lacks the five-wave impulsive structure typically associated with sustainable bull markets. From our vantage point, this confirms that we remain in a larger corrective phase.
We anticipate that a sharp retracement is imminent, one that may unfold over the coming days and weeks, ultimately transitioning into a period of sideways price action until mid-to-late June 2025. Only thereafter do we foresee the conditions forming for a new all-time high and the emergence of a powerful bull leg.
Gann Theory Timing: Imminent Market Top
Our Gann timing model aligns precisely with this forecast. We have identified this week as a critical timing window for a potential top in the S&P 500. Once this pivot is confirmed, we expect the index to enter a steep downward phase. From a Gann perspective, this is a natural part of the market’s cyclical structure — a necessary clearing phase before the next long-term advance.
US Bond Yields: A Telling Risk-Off Signal
One of the most overlooked — yet crucial — factors supporting our bearish near-term view is the behaviour of US bond yields. Charts clearly show that bond yields are breaking out to new highs, a significant development that suggests institutional and “smart money” investors are positioning defensively. This is not a characteristic of a “risk-on” environment.
When yields rise, particularly amidst equity euphoria, it typically indicates that investors are seeking safety and yield rather than embracing equity risk. This divergence is a red flag that supports our conviction: the equity rally is unsustainable, and a meaningful correction is near.
Seasonality Supports the Retracement View
Historical seasonality trends for the S&P 500 further validate our analysis. Data indicates the following typical market behaviour:
Mid-May to Late May: Downtrend
Late May to Mid-June: Temporary uptrend
Mid-June to Late June: Another corrective phase
From Late June Onward: Start of the next major bullish cycle
This seasonal rhythm perfectly mirrors what we see technically: the market is preparing to reset before beginning a strong ascent in July 2025, building into a full-fledged bull market by late June.
The Broader Picture: Beyond US-China
While some market optimism has emerged on the back of renewed US-China tariff discussions, we caution against over-reliance on this narrative. The market appears to be ignoring the broader geopolitical context, including the absence of any clear tariff agreements between the US and Japan — another major global economic player.
The complexity of global trade negotiations introduces substantial uncertainty, which may continue to weigh on investor confidence. Until such macroeconomic factors are stabilised and digested by the market, we do not anticipate a truly risk-on environment.
The Road Ahead: A Strategic Pause Before Ascent
In conclusion, Vital Direction maintains its firm stance: the current market structure does not yet support the onset of a sustained bull market. A meaningful retracement is necessary and, indeed, healthy for the long-term health of the market. We expect this corrective period to unfold over the coming weeks and months, culminating in a sideways consolidation until late June 2025 — the point at which we foresee the S&P 500 transitioning into a highly bullish environment, with the potential to reach new all-time highs.
We will continue to monitor the technicals, macroeconomic developments, and global capital flows to provide our clients with the most accurate and actionable insights. The bull is coming — just not yet.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 9, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In the initial days of this week’s trading session, the S&P 500 Index exhibited a steady to low price movement pattern, successfully achieving a significant target at the Mean Support level of 5601, as indicated in last week’s Daily Chart Analysis. Subsequently, the Index experienced a robust rebound, effectively retesting the Mean Resistance level of 5692. This upward trajectory achievement established a reversal pattern for the downward acceleration to repeat the Mean Support level 5601 retest. However, it is critical to recognize the considerable risk of a sharp upward movement from the current price action, which may lead to an ascent toward the next Mean Support level of 5778. Furthermore, there exists the potential for additional escalation, potentially reaching the Outer Index Rally level of 5915 and beyond.
SPX Continues to Rise After FOMC DecisionThe U.S. index has been gaining more than 2% in recent trading sessions, and the bullish bias has remained intact since the Federal Reserve’s decision during yesterday’s session. The central bank once again opted to keep the interest rate steady at 4.5%. However, according to some comments, Chairman Powell mentioned that the economy is approaching a point where it may soon be appropriate to begin cutting interest rates. This has fueled expectations of future rate cuts and has helped sustain confidence in equity indices over the short term.
Uptrend: Since April 9, a new short-term uptrend has been consistently forming, with price movements holding above the 5,000-point mark. However, the price is now approaching a key resistance level, and as long as this barrier holds, it could lead to short-term neutrality in recent price action.
ADX: The ADX line has been falling sharply in recent sessions and is now nearing the neutral 20 level. This indicates a lack of sustained volatility in recent price moves. If the ADX remains at these levels, it could reinforce a period of consolidation or range-bound movement in the short term.
RSI: The RSI line remains consistently above the neutral 50 mark, indicating that buying momentum still dominates in the short term. However, as the RSI approaches the overbought level near 70, this could open the door for short-term bearish corrections.
Key Levels:
5,750 points – Nearby resistance: This level coincides with the 200-period simple moving average. A breakout above this zone could strengthen the bullish bias and support a more sustained uptrend.
5,540 points – Nearby support: This level aligns with the 50-period moving average and may serve as a potential zone for bearish corrections to unfold.
5,370 points – Critical support: This level aligns with the short-term ascending trendline. A drop below this support could jeopardize the current bullish structure in the short term.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
Bollinger Band Target 5870Now that we've reset the RSI on all the mid time frames, the chance of getting to the BB after open is high. For bears, this may be a day of capitulation. We are over all the important MA's but the rest of the week has to hold above them for it to remain bullish.
Post FOMC possibilitiesWe basically did what I had mentioned this morning - get down to the balance low, then come up to meet the channel. We have to see if they can get over the channel or do they reject from there.
