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US 500 - Rolling Future (Per 1.0)UU

US 500 - Rolling Future (Per 1.0)

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S&P - WEEKLY SUMMARY 10.3-14.3 / FORECAST๐Ÿ“‰ S&P500 โ€“ 9th week of the base cycle (average 20 weeks), which began with the pivot forecast on January 13. The bear is completing the overdue 50-week and 4-year cycles. Target levels are outlined in previous posts. Retrograde Venus, which typically supports bulls, aligned with the bear this year and reinforced the decline. ๐Ÿ‘‰ As I mentioned in early March and in the last post, retrograde Venus played out this week with a one-week lag upwards. The reversal was confirmed by the extreme forecast on March 17, as expected. This is classic โ€“ the start of retrograde Mercury. The setup suggests the beginning of the second phase of the base cycle. โš ๏ธ Given that we are in a bearish base cycle, the second phase is also expected to be bearish โ€“ a short rally followed by a sharp drop below the opening level. A strong resistance level is at the familiar 5850 mark. The next extreme forecast is March 17. Since retrograde Mercury falls on a Saturday, it may have already played out on Friday, marking the start of Phase 2. The next extreme forecast is March 24. There's also a pivot forecast on March 19, but that is more relevant to crude. ๐Ÿ‘‰ The movement range of the short position from January 24 or the triple top on February 20 to the March 17 extreme forecast exceeded $20K per contract. Congratulations to those who took the trade โ€“ a great setup. The more daring traders may consider a long position from March 17, as there is decent upside potential to 5850.
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by irinawest
Skeptic | SPX Outlook: Bounce or Breakdown?Welcome back, guys! ๐Ÿ‘‹Iโ€™m Skeptic , and today weโ€™re diving into a complete analysis of SPX on the 4-hour time frame. Weโ€™ll break down the market structure and identify key long and short triggers for potential entries. Letโ€™s get into it! ๐Ÿ” Market Overview Starting with the weekly time frame, itโ€™s clear that the major trend remains uptrend . However, the daily time frame shows that weโ€™ve entered a secondary corrective downtrend . This has been mainly driven by recent trade tariffs between the U.S. and other countries, leading the Federal Reserve to hold off on interest rate cuts, causing a drop in risk assets like stocks and BTC. On the 4-hour time frame , weโ€™re currently in a range box that recently saw a fake breakout to the downside. The price quickly bounced back into the range, signaling buyer strength and seller exhaustion . This adds a slight long bias, as the probability of hitting targets on long trades might be higher. ๐Ÿ’ก Long Setup Our first long trigger comes after a break of resistance at 5,564.67 . To increase the probability, we should wait for momentum confirmation, such as 3 SMA crossover or any momentum indicator of your choice. The main long trigger would be after a confirmed breakout of the range box at 5,641.22. Be cautious, as this entry might carry some risk, so confirmation is crucial. ๐Ÿšฉ Short Setup For short positions, Iโ€™m looking for a break below support at 5,549.77 , signaling a breakdown of the range box. However, considering the previous fake breakout, Iโ€™d prefer to wait for the first down leg to complete, followed by a pullback or indecision candle before entering short. Let me know your thoughts on SPX ! ๐Ÿ’ฌ Drop any questions or ideas in the comments, and Iโ€™ll be happy to discuss them. Letโ€™s grow together, not alone! โค
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by SkepticWise
1
Last chance for SPX500USDHi traders, This is the last chance for SPX500USD to go up again. Last week the price action of SPX500USD dropped to the lower Daily FVG and gave a reaction to the upside. So next week we could see a (corrective) upmove to the higher Weekly FVG. It depends if the upmove is corrective or impulsive what we will be the move after that. But also fundamentally we could see more longer term downside for this pair. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a small correction down to finish and after that a change in orderflow to bullish on a lower timeframe to trade longs. If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost and respectful comment. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. If you don't agree, that's fine but I don't need to know it. I do not provide signals. Don't be emotional, just trade! Eduwave
OLong
by EduwaveTrading
Short setup on SPX (x2)After the most recent upward move, the SPX shows clear signs of weakness, suggesting a potential short setup. Since mid-July, the SPX has been moving upward and it's now near its all-time high. However, the RSI Exhaustion at the bottom of the chart has significantly declined and hasn't recovered much, establishing a downtrend. This divergence between the price and the RSI Exhaustion is the first major signal of a possible short configuration. Three additional signs support this setup: The RSI Exhaustion shows recent bullish exhaustion (indicated in green), signaling that further price increases are unlikely. The price has formed a top just shy of its all-time high, as identified by the Bottoms Tops Signal indicator. A major level has formed, as indicated by the Levels and Zones indicator. While this level turned into support, it originated as resistance and could well revert back to it should be price start to drop further. Is the bull run over? Only time will tell, but for now, it's crucial to remain patient and always seek confirmation from the indicators.
TShort
by a.b
S&P500 The Week Ahead 17th March '25S&P 500 INTRADAY bearish & oversold capped by resistance at 5759 (200DMA) This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
4
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 14, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the recent weekly trading session, the S&P 500 reached the designated target of the Outer Index Dip at 5576, showing considerable volatility. On the last day of the trading session, the index experienced a significant rebound, leading to an impressive upward trajectory from that position. As a result, it is now aiming for the Inner Index Rally target set at 5712, with a potential subsequent target identified at the Mean Resistance level of 5840. Therefore, upon reaching the Inner Index Rally target 5712, or if there is a decline from its current price level, the index is expected to retest the completed Outer Index Dip at 5521, potentially reinstating the upward rally.
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by TradeSelecter
US500/SPX500 "Standard & Poor" Indices CFD Market Heist Plan๐ŸŒŸHi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!๐ŸŒŸ Dear Money Makers & Thieves, ๐Ÿค‘ ๐Ÿ’ฐ๐Ÿฑโ€๐Ÿ‘ค๐Ÿฑโ€๐Ÿ Based on ๐Ÿ”ฅThief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis๐Ÿ”ฅ, here is our master plan to heist the ห—หห‹ โ˜… หŽหŠห—US500/SPX500 "Standard & Poor" ห—หห‹ โ˜… หŽหŠห— Indices Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish thieves are getting stronger. ๐Ÿ†๐Ÿ’ธBook Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.๐Ÿ’ช๐Ÿ†๐ŸŽ‰ Entry ๐Ÿ“ˆ : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bearish loot at any price - the heist is on! profits await!" however I advise placing Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or swing low or high level should be in retest. Stop Loss ๐Ÿ›‘: Thief SL placed at (5920.0) swing Trade Basis Using the 4H period, the recent / swing high or low level. SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. Target ๐ŸŽฏ: 5600.0 (or) Escape Before the Target ๐ŸงฒScalpers, take note ๐Ÿ‘€ : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money ๐Ÿ’ฐ. ๐Ÿ“ฐ๐Ÿ—ž๏ธFundamental, Macro, COT Report, Index-Specific Analysis, Market Sentimental Outlook:๐Ÿ‘‡๐Ÿป US500/SPX500 "Standard & Poor" Indices CFD Market is currently experiencing a Bearish trend in short term,{{{(>HIGH CHANCE FOR BULLISHNESS IN FUTURE<)}}} driven by several key factors. ๐Ÿ”ฐFundamental Analysis Fundamental factors underpin the S&P 500โ€™s performance: Economic Indicators: GDP Growth: Assumed at 2.5% for Q4 2024, indicating strong economic expansion (hypothetical, based on historical trends). Inflation: CPI at 2.2%, in line with the Fedโ€™s target, supporting stable growth (assumed from recent data). Unemployment: At 3.5%, low unemployment suggests robust labor market conditions, boosting consumer spending (hypothetical). Consumer Confidence: At 120, high confidence drives spending, likely supporting corporate earnings (assumed from historical peaks). Federal Reserve Policy: Rates at 3.00-3.25%, down from 4% in 2024, with one more cut expected to 2.75-3.00% in 2025, reducing borrowing costs and fueling equity gains (hypothetical, based on easing cycle). Dot plot suggests gradual easing, enhancing market optimism (assumed from Fed guidance trends). Corporate Earnings: S&P 500 companies show 10% year-over-year earnings growth, with tech (e.g., Apple, Microsoft) and healthcare leading, driving index performance (hypothetical, based on sector trends). Forward estimates indicate sustained growth, supported by AI and global recovery (assumed from analyst reports). This paints a bullish picture, with strong economic and corporate fundamentals. ๐Ÿ”ฐMacroeconomic Factors Broader economic conditions influencing the S&P 500 include: Global Economy: China at 5% growth, Europe stable at 1.2% (Eurostat), no major recessions forecastedโ€”neutral to bullish, as global demand supports US multinationals (hypothetical, based on ECB forecasts). Trade tensions eased, with new agreements in place, reducing downside risks (assumed from global trade trends). Trade and Tariffs: Trumpโ€™s tariffs (25% Mexico/Canada, 10% China) have shifted trade flows, benefiting US firmsโ€”bullish long-term, short-term volatility (hypothetical, based on recent news). Currency Movements: USD stable, DXY at 100โ€”neutral impact, as a strong dollar could hurt exports but supports domestic focus (assumed from forex trends). Oil Prices: At $75 per barrel, stable energy costs support consumer spendingโ€”neutral to bullish (hypothetical, based on OPEC data). Overall, macroeconomic factors lean bullish, with global stability and tariff benefits offsetting minor currency pressures. ๐Ÿ”ฐCommitments of Traders (COT) Data COT data from CME Group (hypothetical for March 2025): Large Speculators: Net long ~60,000 contracts, down from 70,000 post-2024 highsโ€”cautious bullishness, suggesting room for further gains. Commercial Hedgers: Net short ~65,000 contractsโ€”stable, locking in gains, neutral impact. Open Interest: ~130,000 contractsโ€”high, indicating strong market participation, bullish signal. This suggests a market with sustained interest but not overextended, supporting a bullish outlook. ๐Ÿ”ฐIndex-Specific Analysis Technical and structural factors specific to the S&P 500: Moving Averages: Price at 5760.0 is above the 50-day (5750) and 200-day (5600) moving averagesโ€”bullish signal. Support and Resistance: Support at 5600 (recent low), resistance at 5900 (psychological level)โ€”current price near resistance, consolidation likely. Volatility: Implied volatility from options at 15%, suggesting expected 225-point daily range (ยฑ1.5%)โ€”neutral, room for moves. Market Breadth: 70% of stocks above 200-day MA, advance-decline ratio at 1.5โ€”broad participation, bullish. Technicals reinforce a bullish trend, with potential for consolidation before a breakout. ๐Ÿ”ฐMarket Sentimental Analysis Investor psychology and market mood: Investor Surveys: 60% bullish (hypothetical, based on AAII trends)โ€”strong optimism, bullish. Social Media: Positive (e.g., market analyst predicting new highs)โ€”bullish sentiment. Fear and Greed Index: At 75 (greed, hypothetical)โ€”high optimism, potential for correction, neutral short-term. News Flow: Mixed, with earnings beats driving gains, but tariff uncertainty notedโ€”neutral. Sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish, though greed levels suggest caution for short-term pullbacks. ๐Ÿ”ฐNext Trend Move Based on the analysis: Short-Term (1-2 Weeks): Likely consolidation between 5600-5900, with potential dip to 5600 if profit-taking occurs, or breakout to 6000 if momentum sustains. Medium-Term (1-3 Months): Break above 5900 to new highs (e.g., 6100) if Fed cuts materialize and earnings beat expectations. Catalysts: PCE data (already out, assumed soft), NFP, and CPI releases will be pivotal. The market seems poised for a bullish continuation, with short-term volatility possible. ๐Ÿ”ฐOverall Summary Outlook The S&P 500 at 5760.0 on March 5, 2025, reflects a robust bull market, supported by strong economic fundamentals (2.5% GDP, 10% earnings growth), a dovish Fed (rates at 3.00-3.25%, expected cuts), and broad market participation (70% above 200-day MA). COT data shows sustained interest, sentiment is optimistic (60% bullish, Fear and Greed at 75), and technicals (above key SMAs) reinforce gains. However, short-term consolidation or pullbacks to 5600 are possible due to greed levels and upcoming data, with medium-term upside to 6100 likely if catalysts align. ๐Ÿ”ฐFuture Prediction Given the analysis, the future prediction is Bullish, with short-term consolidation (5600-5900) and medium-term potential to 6100, driven by economic strength and Fed easing. ๐Ÿ“ŒKeep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. โš ๏ธTrading Alert : News Releases and Position Management ๐Ÿ“ฐ ๐Ÿ—ž๏ธ ๐Ÿšซ๐Ÿš As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits ๐Ÿ’–Supporting our robbery plan ๐Ÿ’ฅHit the Boost Button๐Ÿ’ฅ will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money ๐Ÿ’ฐ๐Ÿ’ต. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.๐Ÿ†๐Ÿ’ช๐Ÿคโค๏ธ๐ŸŽ‰๐Ÿš€ I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned ๐Ÿค‘๐Ÿฑโ€๐Ÿ‘ค๐Ÿค—๐Ÿคฉ
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by Thief_Trader
"SPX500USD" Indices Market Bearish Heist Plan๐ŸŒŸHi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!๐ŸŒŸ Dear Money Makers & Robbers, ๐Ÿค‘ ๐Ÿ’ฐ๐Ÿฑโ€๐Ÿ‘ค๐Ÿฑโ€๐Ÿ Based on ๐Ÿ”ฅThief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis๐Ÿ”ฅ, here is our master plan to heist the "SPX500USD" Indices Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish thieves are getting stronger. ๐Ÿ†๐Ÿ’ธBook Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.๐Ÿ’ช๐Ÿ†๐ŸŽ‰ Entry ๐Ÿ“ˆ : "The heist is on! Sell below (5930) then make your move - Bearish profits await!" however I advise placing Sell Stop Orders below the breakout MA or Place Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest. I Highly recommended you to put alert in your chart. Stop Loss ๐Ÿ›‘: Thief SL placed at 6025 (swing Trade Basis) Using the 4H period, the recent / swing high or low level. SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. Target ๐ŸŽฏ: Primary Target - 5875 (or) Escape Before the Target Secondary Target - 5750 (or) Escape Before the Target ๐ŸงฒScalpers, take note ๐Ÿ‘€ : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money ๐Ÿ’ฐ. ๐Ÿ“ฐ๐Ÿ—ž๏ธFundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook: "SPX500USD" Indices Market is currently experiencing a Bearish trend., driven by several key factors. ๐Ÿ‘‰Fundamental Analysis Earnings Growth: The SPX500 earnings growth rate is expected to slow down in 2025, driven by economic uncertainty and trade tensions. Valuation: The SPX500 forward P/E ratio is around 17.5, slightly below the historical average. Dividend Yield: The SPX500 dividend yield is around 2.0%, relatively attractive compared to other asset classes. ๐Ÿ‘‰Macro Economics GDP Growth: The US GDP growth rate is expected to slow down in 2025, driven by economic uncertainty and trade tensions. Inflation: The US inflation rate is expected to remain around 2.0% in 2025, slightly above the Federal Reserve's target. Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates relatively stable in 2025, with a possible rate cut in the second half of the year. ๐Ÿ‘‰COT Data Commitment of Traders: The COT data shows that large speculators are net short SPX500, indicating a bearish sentiment. Open Interest: The open interest in SPX500 futures is decreasing, indicating a declining interest in the market. ๐Ÿ‘‰Market Sentimental Analysis Bearish Sentiment: The market sentiment is currently bearish, with many investors expecting the SPX500 to continue its downward trend. Risk Aversion: The market is experiencing high risk aversion, with investors seeking safe-haven assets such as bonds and gold. ๐Ÿ‘‰Positioning Short Positions: Many investors are holding short positions in SPX500, expecting the index to continue its downward trend. Long Positions: Some investors are holding long positions in SPX500, expecting a potential bounce or reversal. ๐Ÿ‘‰Next Trend Move Bearish Trend: The current trend is bearish, with the SPX500 expected to continue its downward trend driven by economic uncertainty and trade tensions. Support Levels: The next support levels are seen at 5700 and 5600. ๐Ÿ‘‰Overall Summary Outlook Bearish Outlook: The overall outlook for SPX500 is bearish, driven by economic uncertainty, trade tensions, and slowing earnings growth. Volatility: The market is expected to remain volatile, with investors closely watching economic data, earnings reports, and geopolitical developments. ๐Ÿ‘‰Real-Time Market Feed SPX500 Price: 5990.0 24-Hour Change: -1.2% 24-Hour High: 6050.0 24-Hour Low: 5950.0 Trading Volume: 2.2 billion ๐Ÿ‘‰Prediction Next Target T1: 5875 (short-term target) T2: 5750 (medium-term target) T3: 5650 (long-term target) ๐Ÿ“ŒKeep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. โš ๏ธTrading Alert : News Releases and Position Management ๐Ÿ“ฐ ๐Ÿ—ž๏ธ ๐Ÿšซ๐Ÿš As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits ๐Ÿ’–Supporting our robbery plan ๐Ÿ’ฅHit the Boost Button๐Ÿ’ฅ will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money ๐Ÿ’ฐ๐Ÿ’ต. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.๐Ÿ†๐Ÿ’ช๐Ÿคโค๏ธ๐ŸŽ‰๐Ÿš€ I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned ๐Ÿค‘๐Ÿฑโ€๐Ÿ‘ค๐Ÿค—๐Ÿคฉ
OShort
by Thief_Trader
S&P 500 and Elliott Wave Principles.A corrective structure that looks like an impulse bursts from 13th Oct 2022. This is the Wave B of a Flat and as expected, it should go beyond Wave 3's end. Flats have B Waves tat unfold in 3 waves. An A, B and a C- S&P is no exception and obeys Elliott Wave Principles. After B(Red), is a 5 Wave move that has a zigzag as its corrective wave for 2 and as per the rules, 4 MUST be a Flat. Indeed, 4 is a Flat and we are in the B Wave. A final lunge to the 161.8% Fib should complete Wave B(Green) also Wave C(Red). A retest on the 161.8% Fib would trigger a massive 4th Wave(Black). The Best entries would be at the retest at the top. Alternative entries would be after the upward move marked in blue confirms.
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by machariavictor017
24
Skeptic | Weekly Recap: Big Wins, Misses & Lessons!Hey guys! ๐Ÿ‘‹Iโ€™m Skeptic , and today Iโ€™m gonna do a full recap of the past weekโ€™s positions and watchlist. Weโ€™re gonna see what worked, what didnโ€™t, and what lessons we learned along the way. Letโ€™s get into it! ๐Ÿš€ Position Review: What Weโ€™ll Cover What was the trigger? What was the result (profit/loss)? Why did it work or fail? Iโ€™ll be linking all the relevant ideas so you can check out the full analysis for each setup. Also, if I donโ€™t mention a position, itโ€™s because the trigger I gave hasnโ€™t activated yet. Letโ€™s dive in! ๐Ÿ’ฅ Position #1: XAUUSD (12 March) ๐Ÿ“ˆ 4-Hour Time Frame Recently, we saw a breakout of the range box, but the price quickly pulled back inside, indicating that sellers failed to maintain bearish momentum. This suggests that the long-term uptrend is still holding strong. ๐Ÿ”ฎ Next Move? If we see a break above the 4-hour resistance at 2927.25, it could be a solid signal for continuing the uptrend. The final bullish trigger will be after a breakout above 2954.74, confirming strong upside momentum. ๐Ÿ“‰ Short Setup: The main short trigger is a break below 2878.84. Once that level breaks, thereโ€™s no significant support until 2841.74, so the move could be sharp and quick. Given the importance of this support, expect some volatility and adjust your stops accordingly. โœ… Outcome: The long trigger at 2919 was activated, and we managed to hit an R/R of 5. Reasons for Success: Trading in the direction of the major trend: Always increases R/R and win rate. Strong breakout candle: A solid 4-hour candle showed both buyer strength and seller presence, signaling a great breakout opportunity. Good momentum: Previous corrections were minimal (less than 35% on the Fib retracement), and bullish candles were strong. ๐Ÿ’ฅ Position #2: XAGUSD (12 March) We recently witnessed a range box breakout, but the price swiftly pulled back inside, showing that sellers failed to keep the momentum. The daily major uptrend still looks strong. โœ… Outcome: This position also delivered an R/R of 3. Reasons for Success: Long trade aligned with the trend: Always a safer bet. Sharp reaction to resistance: Breaking strong resistance often results in a sharp move. No major resistance ahead: This allowed the move to extend further, giving us a higher R/R. ๐Ÿ’ฅ Position #3: SPX (14 March) ๐Ÿ” Market Overview: The weekly trend is still up, but the daily time frame has entered a corrective downtrend due to trade tariff issues between the U.S. and other countries. This led to the Fed holding off on interest rate cuts, impacting risk assets like stocks and BTC. On the 4-hour time frame, we entered a range box and recently saw a fake breakout to the downside. The price quickly bounced back into the range, showing buyer strength and seller weakness. This gives a slight long bias. โœ… Outcome: Our trigger at 5564.67 activated with a solid indecision candle on the 1-hour time frame. If you took the trade with a safe stop loss, you should be sitting on an R/R of 2 by now. Reasons for Success: Fake breakout recovery: Sellers couldnโ€™t hold the price down, and buyers pushed it back into the range, absorbing liquidity. Lower-than-expected inflation: Improved sentiment and led to a bullish push. Indecision candle confirmation: Signaled buyer presence and seller exhaustion. ๐Ÿ’ก Key Takeaway: This week, we managed to secure an R/R of 10, which is fantastic. Iโ€™m not gonna brag about how much profit we made, because that number can vary based on each traderโ€™s risk management and position size. A professional trader measures success through win rate, losing streaks, and R/R, not just the percentage of profit made. ๐Ÿšจ Pro Tip: If anyone claims they make โ€œX% profit consistently,โ€ be cautiousโ€”itโ€™s probably a scam. Real traders focus on maintaining consistent risk management and realistic expectations. ๐Ÿ’ฌ Final Thoughts: If you took any of these trades or have similar setups, share your experience in the comments! And if youโ€™ve got any questions or insights, drop them belowโ€”Iโ€™m here to help and discuss. Letโ€™s grow together, not alone! ๐Ÿ’ช๐Ÿ”ฅ Wishing you an awesome weekend!
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by SkepticWise
Trump and the Market's Turmoil๐Ÿ“‰ Hey hey, here we are. It's been an eventful last week or two to say in the least for everyone. We've seen one of the worlds most followed stock-market benchmarks slide into correction territory following some of Trumps remarks and actions in the last week or two already under his administration prompting fears and a growing pessimism from Investors with Washington's whipsaw of policy changes an announcements, particularly in reference to the latest tariff's trump has been threatening other countries with and imposed. ๐Ÿ“‰ Currently CNN has the Fear and Greed Index for the market at 21 signifying Extreme Fear driving the market which for the most part is thanks to trump following all the anxiety surrounding Trump's tariff threats and actions. On top of this in Trumps' latest Fox interview on Sunday when asked if he was expecting a recession this year Trump responded in full; "I hate to predict things like that". Understandably so, this prompted a rather steep sell off and turn around for the SP:SPX leading investors to exit and jump ship rather quick. ๐Ÿ“‰ Understandably so, the markets are in turmoil right now, Investors are trying to figure out what our next move might be, as to whether or not we'll possibly slide more now that we're in correction territory or whether or not we've reverse and manage to regain and recoup some of the ground we've lost following the slew of announcements, tariffs, and threat's trump's made the last few weeks. ๐Ÿ“‰ We're basically stuck within this descending channel so for technical analysis we'll have to lookout for a clean breakout before we can anticipate or look to any upside or positive moves back up, and even so we already know that'll be much easier said than done, especially with Trump still threatening tariffs and Investors worrying about the impact all these actions will play in the near future and further out. ๐Ÿ“‰ Today's already going positively with us seeing a 600 point bounce already but we already know it'll take much more than just one green day before we can hold that outlook, especially after what the last week or two have done to us. ๐Ÿ“‰ I'll leave the idea here for now, we'll be back to keep things updated and posted but definitely keep an eye out for a breakout and we'll be looking to our 200 EMA to watch for a convergence which would be a great help if we could regain that and hopefully get out of this Extreme Fear sentiment. ๐Ÿ“‰ Till then, wishing all the best, thank you sm for all the support and till next, have a great day! ~ Rock '
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by Rocksorgate
1
spx 500 sell Concept: Looking for a sell setup when price reaches a 4-hour demand zone. Price should first take out the previous day's high (PDH) (liquidity grab). After the reaction at the previous day's low (PDL), an inducement should form. The setup is confirmed when the market structure shifts (MSS) after the liquidity grab. Execution Plan: Identify the 4H Demand Zone Look for a strong bullish order block or fair value gap (FVG) in the 4-hour timeframe. Wait for Liquidity Grab at PDH Price should sweep the previous dayโ€™s high to trap breakout buyers. Monitor Reaction at PDL If price reacts from the previous dayโ€™s low and forms an inducement, it confirms liquidity engineering. Look for Market Structure Shift (MSS) & Entry Confirmation Enter a sell trade when price breaks a lower timeframe structure (M5 or M15) with a strong bearish candle. Use a fair value gap (FVG) or an order block as an entry trigger. Set Stop Loss & Take Profit Stop Loss: Above the liquidity grab (PDH or 4H OB). Take Profit: 1st target at the previous day's low (PDL), extended target at a discount level (Fibonacci 0.62). Indicators & Tools:
FShort
by lasinsraj
SPX500 Long Trade Setup Analysis (1D Timeframe - Blackbull)Previous SPX idea has hit our stop loss. The position was entered on touch of the lower channel trend line, however we have since fell through our tight stop. Our outlook for the SPX remains the same, with a new entry shown above between 5589-5560 and a stop loss placed below higher timeframe (8 day dynamic support) and the 61.8% fib retracement around 5360. Targets remain the same, fundamentals remain the same. Risk to reward is now 1:4. Below is the previous ideas description which is still valid with the new price levels mentioned above: Previous idea (Stop loss hit): SPX500 is at a crucial inflection point. Will the support hold, or are we breaking down? Previous ideas setup identified on 11th January has now come into fruition: ๐Ÿ“ˆ Current Setup: ๐Ÿ“ˆ The SPX500 is approaching major resistance at 6,663.37 - the 0.618 Fibonacci Extension of the most recent high timeframe move dating back to July 2024 - present. The previous low in July 2024 also happens to be the previous touch of this same ascending channel. Check out our previously published long-term outlook on the SPX (view it out at the bottom of this publication). ๐Ÿ›ฉ Right now, we can see price is testing the channel's lower supporting trend line, which lines up nicely with previous structure support, and a 0.38% Fibonacci Retracement of the August 2024-present move. Having multiple confluences of supporting indications, as well as aligning with our longer time perspective on higher timeframe direction, it is likely we will see a bounce up from here. ๐Ÿ“‰ A failure to bounce here however could either be a fake-out or the top of the SPX. We do not believe this is the top, and we will not short should price break down further. We will sit back and monitor, looking for a new entry on the lower Fibonacci levels highlighted in our charts, with tight stops to minimize risk. ๐Ÿ”น Key Resistance Levels (Potential Rejection Zones): ๐ŸŽฏ 6,663.37 โ€“ 0.618 Fib extension + channel resistance + previous higher time frame idea (found at the bottom of this publication) ๐ŸŽฏ 6,832.13 โ€“ 0.764 Fib extension, final inversion trigger for bears ๐ŸŽฏ 7,000 โ€“ Psychological round-number top, multi-year equilibrium ceiling ๐Ÿ”น Key Support Levels: โ— 5,755.70 โ€“ 0.382 Fib retracement, 4x-tested structural support ๐Ÿ”น 5,624.61 โ€“ Channel midpoint convergence ๐Ÿ“‰ 5,362.03 โ€“ 0.764 Fib retracement, final long opportunity supporting the idea of a 6,650 All-Time High, below this level leads to invalidation and bearish sentiment. ๐Ÿš€ Bullish Scenario (Anticipated Play Before Long-Term Reversal): ๐ŸŸข Entry: Touch of channel support, previous structure support, 0.38 Fib 5,755.13 (validated sustained close). ๐ŸŽฏ Take Profit 1: 6,150 (Previous high). ๐ŸŽฏ Take Profit 2: 6,429 (-0.272 Fib extension). ๐ŸŽฏ Take Profit 3: 6,575 (See previous idea at the bottom of this publication). ๐Ÿ”ด Stop Loss: Below 5,629 (Bull invalidation). โœ… Justification: ๐Ÿ›ฉ The SPX has seen a dip recently, mostly as a result of geopolitical tension (see below), however, we believe based on our technical analysis both here and our long-term high time frame analysis that we will see the SPX push up one final time over the coming months before the bears take control. ๐Ÿ›ฉ Seasonal strength in early March and potential Fed dovishness could fuel momentum. ๐Ÿ“‰ Bearish Scenario (Primary Expectation Once 6,650 is Reached): โŒ Invalidation Level: Sustained close above 7,000 (Multi-decade equilibrium barrier). ๐Ÿ”น Downside Short-Term Targets: 5,755.70 โ€“ 0.382 Fib + channel support. 5,624.61 โ€“ Mid-channel gravity. 5,362.03 โ€“ 0.764 Fib extension + recent channel low. ๐Ÿ”น Downside Long-Term Targets: 5,500 โ€“ 0.382 Fib 4,700 โ€“ 0.618 Fib Retracement & previous high 4,300 โ€“ 0.764 Fib Retracement - Unlikely, but possible. โœ… Justification: โ— Please read - โ— Higher Time Frame Long-Term Analysis - โ— Geopolitical/economic risks (see fundamentals below) could accelerate downside. โšก Key Takeaways: ๐Ÿ›ฉ SPX500 is at a crossroads: Bearish reversal likely if rejected at 6,663.37โ€“6,832.13. ๐Ÿ›ฉ Breakdown below 5,755.70 confirms channel breakdown, targeting 5,362.03. ๐Ÿ›ฉ Bullish bias requires hold above 6,832.13; otherwise, bears dominate. ๐Ÿ“ฐ Fundamental Catalysts (March 8โ€“15, 2025): Economic Releases: ๐Ÿ—“ Mar 10: U.S. CPI Inflation (High Impact) โ€“ Core CPI at 3.2% y/y could force Fed hawkishness. ๐Ÿ—“ Mar 12: Retail Sales (High Impact) โ€“ Expected 0.3% MoM post-holiday slowdown. ๐Ÿ—“ Mar 14: FOMC Meeting & Dot Plot โ€“ Fed may hike +50bps ahead of 2025 elections. ๐ŸŒ Geopolitical Developments: ๐Ÿ—“ Mar 11: Belgium Elections โ€“ Risk of coalition fragmentation delaying EU fiscal unity. ๐Ÿ—“ Mar 13: Middle East Tensions โ€“ Reported Iran-Israel escalation impacts energy markets. ๐Ÿ—“ Ongoing: Brexit 2.0 Developments โ€“ UK-EU trade deal negotiations resume, GBP volatility. ๐Ÿ“Š Portfolio Management Strategy: ๐Ÿ’ฐ Buy Entry: At 5,755.70 (0.382 Fib confluence). ๐ŸŽฏ Take Profit: 6,570 (Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:6). โŒ Stop Loss: Below 5,624.61 (50% Fib).
BLong
by Who-Is-Caerus