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US 500 - Rolling Future (Per 1.0)US 500 - Rolling Future (Per 1.0)US 500 - Rolling Future (Per 1.0)

US 500 - Rolling Future (Per 1.0)

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2025 Market Outlook - Cautiously Bullish (Important Bar Counts)Hey Everybody, Thanks for checking out the video. I'm reviewing all major instruments, US and Non US. US has carried the financial markets since 2020 and 2022 and this year out of the gate we're seeing big runs in "uninvestable" spaces like Europe and China. I say that jokingly because of how bad everything thought non US assets were, but here we are watching DAX, FTSE, and HSI running to double digit gains while the US lags behind. Will the US catch up and the global economy tide rise to lift all boats or are we truly seeing a catch up trade that will have headwinds uncertainties a plenty? Time will tell. This week is a holiday shortened trading week, RBA and RBNZ expected to cut rates, Europe and US printing PMI on Friday. BABA and BIDU earnings this week (China related), and NVDA earnings next week (#2 market cap in US). I discuss the big bar counts that I'm watching closely on SPY, SPX, XSP, RSP, NDX, QQQ, DIA, NVDA, META, NFLX, and others that I believe technically will matter for limited upside momentum without a bigger pause, snapback or correction ahead. Cautiously optimistic is a perfect play for 2025. I'm off to a good start for the year and intend to keep that way without chasing or doing anything silly. Thank for watching.
SP:SPX
by ChrisPulver
S&P 500 - Ending Diagonal Triangle - February 2025The S&P 500 (SPX) could be nearing completion of an Elliott wave – Ending Diagonal Triangle (EDT) that began after the 11/04/24 bottom. This formation is the terminal phase of a larger degree trend. Price frequently throws over the trendline connecting the peaks of the third and first waves. In this case the target zone is SPX 6,145 to 6,165. Time zone for a top is 02/18/25 to 02/20/25. Its rare for U.S. stocks to peak in February. The last time this occurred was just before the 2020 covid crash. The SPX peak was made on 02/19/20. Its possible another SPX February top could be made almost exactly five years after 02/19/20.
SP:SPXShort
by markrivest
4
Updated S&P 500 Long Term Elliott Wave Count 2/17/25 The S&P 500 (SPX) could be very near the completion of a 28 – month extended Elliott Impulse wave that began in October 2022. There are always alternate Elliott wave counts. Followers to my website will notice that the count illustrated in this post is slightly different to what was shown on the website. Both wave counts have the same message – a multi – month or even a multi- year SPX bear market could begin in a few trading days. Both weekly RSI and MACD have multiple bearish divergences which imply the SPX could soon decline 20% or more! I will soon post another shorter – term SPX wave count illustrating a fascinating Elliott wave structure.
SP:SPXShort
by markrivest
SPX: risky optimismA strong performance of the S&P 500 and increased investors optimism was back during the previous week. Despite hotter than expected inflation figures for January, the market was pushing the index to the higher grounds during the week. The highest weekly level was reached on Friday at 6.122, still the ATH has not been breached on this occasion. The reason for investors optimism analysts are noting a more clarity over US Administration trade tariffs, on one side, and a drop in retail sales of -0,9% in January, much higher from market expectations. The combination of released data is pointing that the current elevated inflation is not putting pressure on Fed rates. The S&P 500 gained around 1,5% for the week. Analysts from JPMorgan noted that the participation of earnings of the so-called Magnificent Seven tech companies included in the S&P 500 index are beginning to slow down compared to other companies included in this index. On the other hand, analysts from Swiss largest bank, UBS, are pointing to potential negative effects of US trade tariffs for the US economy. They are mentioning retaliation risks from trading with the US in case of higher tariffs. This points out that despite current market optimism, there are still ongoing risks which could easily impact investors' optimistic mood, and bring back higher volatility to the US equity markets.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
Breakout or Fakeout? SPX at CrossroadsBreakout or Fakeout? SPX at a Critical Crossroads | SPX Market Analysis 17 Feb 2025 Welcome to another shortened trading week, thanks to Presidents' Day (or maybe an extended Valentine's weekend for the lucky ones). With all the nudge nudge, wink wink out of the way, let’s talk setups. I’m watching two key trade scenarios—a breakout continuation or a break-in reversal (aka a false breakout). For now, it’s time to grab a cuppa and a hobnob while waiting for the markets to open. --- SPX Deeper Dive Analysis: ☕ Tea, biscuits, and breakout confirmations With Tuesday’s open ahead, my focus is on two key setups that could determine the next tradable move. Scenario #1 – The Breakout That Needs to Prove Itself On Friday, SPX tried to break out, but price action was about as decisive as someone staring at a restaurant menu for 20 minutes before ordering a burger. Price meandered sideways, leaving traders guessing I chose to sit this one out, because long weekends can mess with momentum Now, we watch if Tuesday brings real follow-through If this breakout is legit, we should see: ✅ A strong push above Friday’s highs ✅ Sustained momentum without rapid reversals ✅ Clean continuation setups for bullish entries If we get weak price action, I’ll hold off on longs and consider the next setup… Scenario #2 – The ‘Break-In’ (A False Breakout Setup) Now, let’s talk about something you won’t find in trading textbooks—the Break-In setup. Think of it like this: Imagine SPX breaking out, getting everyone excited, then suddenly doing a U-turn and slamming back into the previous range. Traders who chased the breakout get trapped, and those who spot the reversal early have a golden shorting opportunity. Signs of a Break-In setup: ❌ Price fails to hold breakout levels ❌ Quick rejection and reversal back into the previous range ❌ Bearish momentum builds instead of continuation If SPX falls back into the range, I’ll be watching for short setups, because these moves can be quick and brutal. So What’s the Plan? 🧐 1. Watch for Tuesday’s Open – If SPX continues Friday’s breakout, we look for bullish setups. If not, the Break-In trade is on the table. 🎯 2. Avoid Jumping in Too Early – Long weekends can create fake momentum that doesn’t hold. Patience is key. 🍪 3. Keep an Eye on Volatility – If volume is weak, the move could be another dud. But if volatility spikes, we could get a real tradeable move. 🚀 Key Takeaway? SPX has picked a direction, but the real move happens once full liquidity returns. Until then, I’ll be enjoying my tea and biscuits while the market figures itself out. Fun Fact 📢 Did you know? The biggest post-holiday market crash happened in 1929, when the Dow plunged 12.8% after a weekend—triggering the Great Depression. 💡 The Lesson? Markets don’t take holidays—they just store volatility for later. That’s why smart traders stay prepared for anything after a break.
SP:SPX
by MrPhilNewton
4
SPX500 ,,, Probability of BreakoutUptrend As seen in the chart, the S&P 500 has been in a prolonged uptrend. By focusing on key highs and lows, my prediction is that the index will break out of its current level this week. The next target level is 6270, after which I anticipate a pullback to the newly broken level. Overall, I remain optimistic about the market and recommend identifying stocks with strong upward momentum. Consider establishing new buy positions following the breakout. Good luck.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by pardis
4
SPX Losing Steam As RRP Runs to ZeroSP:SPX has been enjoying lots of liquidity from the reverse repo facility at the Fed recently, but this balance is soon going to zero as indicated by the trend shown in the chart. The orange line is an inverted RRP chart to show the correlation with SPX going up. As liquidity in RRP runs out, the monthly SPX MACD also looks as if it's ready to swing down. The timing for when SPX rolls over is a challenge due to many factors, but RRP is on track to be zero within a month, and this will take away one major liquidity source driving markets. This event will be one to keep an eye on.
TVC:SPXShort
by DarklyEnergized
S&P500 retesting ATH,The Week Ahead 17th Feb 25The S&P (US500) index price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend. However, since reaching an all-time high on Friday 24th Jan the S&P index price action is consolidating in a sideways trading range. The key trading level is at 6012, which is the current swing low. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 6012 level could target the upside resistance at 6080 followed by the 6117 and 6130 levels over the longer timeframe. Alternatively, a confirmed loss of 6012 support and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook targeting a further retracement and a retest of 5964 support level followed by 5925. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
S&P - WEEKLY SUMMARY 10.2-14.2 / FORECAST📉 S&P500 – 5th week of the base cycle (average of 20 weeks). Monday opened with a traditional gap down. Unfortunately, the gap was too brief to close the short position with a profit. On Wednesday, the extreme forecast on February 11 pushed the market upward after a brief dip on inflation data. Two long cycles remain open, as I have discussed in previous posts. ⚠️ By Friday’s close, there are signs of a triple top forming at the December 9 and January 29 extreme forecast levels. The next pivot forecast is February 24. The most interesting part is expected at the extreme forecast on March 3, coinciding with the start of the retrograde Venus period, which I mentioned in early December.
CBOE:SPX
by irinawest
SP500 vs. US intrest rateInterest rate hikes correlated with SP500 growth. Recent growth from the bottom of the March 21' COVID crash was financed by printing trillions US dollars. It allowed to mitigate unemployment rate spike. Inflation started to rise rapidly and interest rates are expected to grow. Will SP500 growth continue? Or is it overpriced by now? Maybe, Shiller P/E ratio for SP500 is now around 39 with median at 16 and maxiumum at 44 on Dec 1999. But how similar is current economics to previous decades? What to expect with unprecedented money supply and modern technologies? Is it time of Modern Monetary Theory? Maybe I would be able to answer any of the questions if I had any formal economic education ;) tradingeconomics.com www.multpl.com
SP:SPXLong
by greater_fool_
Market SnapshotHow do you see the economic future of America? www.youtube.com www.saferbankingresearch.com "As such, as of Q3 2023, the total equity of the banks participating in the 2024 stress test was already lower than their loans to shadow bankers. Given that on-balance sheet loans to shadow bankers have increased by nearly 20% since Q3 2023, and assuming off-balance sheet loan commitments have grown at the same rate, total loan commitments to shadow bankers from the largest banks are now even higher. This makes shadow banking lending one of the largest segments—and, for some, already the largest—of these banks' credit books."
SP:SPXShort
by Heartbeat_Trading
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 14, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the recent weekly trading session, the S&P 500 effectively reached and tested the critical Key Resistance level at 6083. It retested the completed Outer Index Rally at 6120, indicating a potential continuation of the bullish trend toward the intermediate target of 6233. However, a market pullback is anticipated due to this price action. Current analyses suggest that the designated downward target is set at the Mean Support level of 6049, with potential extensions to 5995, 5936, and the Outer Index Dip at 5878.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter