SPX update - retesting 6000 before 6340In my updated view we can see a retest o 5995-6000 area before dump to 3340 where last bullish leg will start to new ATH @6444
US500FU trade ideas
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The Close 3-2818 monthly ma being at 535 on spy makes me feel like a flush to there on Monday is quite possible. The C wave idea is being negated as of now in favor of another 5 wave move to 535.
SPX500 – Strong Rebound Before Final Correction!We anticipate a strong rebound to form an X wave, followed by a deeper correction before reaching a final bottom between 23rd April – 8th May 2025.
Key levels and timing align with our broader market analysis—stay prepared! 📉📈
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 28, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week's trading session, the Index gapped higher, passing our completed Inner Index Rally of 5712 and setting a Mean Resistance of 5768. This target was accompanied by considerable reversal, ultimately causing a downward movement. On the final trading day of the week, the Index underwent a pronounced decline, resulting in a substantial drop that surpassed the critical target of Mean Support set at 5603. The Index is positioned to retest the completed Outer Index Dip level of 5520. An extended decline is feasible, with the possibility of targeting the subsequent Outer Index Dip at 5403 before resuming an upward rally from either of these Outer Index Dip levels.
SPX bottoming- Next Legup going to get ParabolicThe SPX has completed its correction within a falling wedge pattern and is now poised for a breakout and a parabolic move, with expectations of reaching new highs moving forward.
#SPX - 2 Apr#SPX pulled back nicely to PZ yesterday before rallying 70 points, going back to resistance zone.
Overall, price action looks toppish. Could see a move down to 5525/55 but will be looking for a turn at that level for a long. If level does not hold, next strong support below is at 5400.
Today is Tariff day. Trade safe.
SPX developing a wedge similar to 2022As I write this futures are sharply down to 5440 and ViX is at 40. I expect to see a short technical bounce to about 5550, being at major trendline. The wedge formation is similar to 2022. A breakout from Wedge would be sharp either way. If it holds at this level for a couple of weeks then I expect to see a bounce to 5775.I had said earlier in my vix analysis we are in 2022 mode.
Market could see a relief rally only to realise that there are still many unknowns.
The impact on labour market due to immigration policies, retaliation of other countries and negotiation results thereof, impact on consumer sentiments and extent of inflations due to tariff. Weakening of US dollar will only add to inflation pressure. Trump has only accelerated BRICS agenda of moving away from USD
Citadel,Millennium and many other hedge fund are having liquidity problems and FED is been asked to setup a bailout fund for these crooks. They are the highest leveraged entities. A weaker market will precipitate another financial crisis. So far the financial sector hasn't been devalued liketh tech and semi's. I think their turn will come once the market have finished dealing with tech valuations. Once market gets this, it will see a sharp selloff, which is better than slow grind down over months as far as I am concerned
When trump says, he doesn't care about the stock market, I think he knows it is overvalued, just like Warren Buffet did last year and sold off most his positions and now sitting on largest cash in history, waiting for it to come to his level of expectation which to to my mind cant be just 10%
bat rather like 30% write off in the en, to entice savvy investors like Buffet and Michael Burry to re-enter and clean out the garbage investors like the hedge funds
$SPX BOOOM Perfectly Nailed the Bottom in last nights video
5505/5485 Bull put spreads were the money play today on that drop. And of course that would have been the place to go long on the day.
Short SPX500Technical and fundamentals with short term sentiment open a tactical short position from here.
S&P500 IndexIf the midline of the linear regression channel is broken, the price will continue to decline until it reaches the support line of the inner channel (in light blue), which is at one standard deviation.
In the less likely event that this support line is also broken, we have the support line of the outer channel (in yellow), which is at two standard deviations.
(Logarithmic price axis, channel starting from 2008)
S&P500 6th time in 14 years that this buy signal flashes.S&P500 is sinking under its MA50 (1w) and is headed straight to the next support level, the MA100 (1w).
Last time it touched this level was in October 30th 2023 and that's alone a great buy signal.
It's the RSI (1w) you should be paying attention to as it is approaching the 33.00 level, which since August 2011 it has given 5 buy signals that all touched the MA100 (1w).
Obviously in 2022 we had a bear market, March 2020 was the COVID Black Swan and December 2018 the peak of the U.S.-China trade wars.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the MA100 (1w).
Targets:
1. 6500.
Tips:
1. This is a long term trade and it is all about your approach to risk. If you can handle unexpected dips below the MA100 (1w), then you will be greatly rewarded by the end of 2025.
Please like, follow and comment!!
Don’t Let a Green Candle Fool YouDon’t Let a Green Candle Fool You | SPX Analysis 01 April 2025
We got the “boing” – but not the bounce that changes anything meaningful.
Monday opened like a trap door - gap down, quick poke near 5500, and then a full day of rallying that had CNBC anchors high-fiving like they just called the bottom of the century.
Except… they didn’t.
We’ve seen this act before. One-day rallies that puff up like a balloon, then vanish. And just like before, I’m not chasing a single green candle or headline optimism. I’m not a bull until 5700 is reclaimed - simple as that. That’s the bear flag failure point, the GEX pivot, and my personal line in the sand.
So while the crowd celebrates a maybe-double-bottom, I’m keeping my slippers firmly on the bear side of the wardrobe. And if Monday proved anything, it’s this…
Sometimes, the trades you forget about end up being the ones that pay.
This Bounce Doesn’t Fool Me – Here's Why I’m Still Short
Let’s call it what it is: a rally inside a bearish structure. Until we break the top of that structure, it’s just noise.
Here’s what really matters:
Monday gapped down, dropped toward 5500, and then staged a rally.
Everyone’s calling “double bottom!” - but I’ve seen more convincing bottoms on a bowling ball.
These reversal days have been common lately – I counted five in the last six weeks.
We’re still under 5700, which is the GEX flip, the flag failure, and the bullish invalidation.
That means I’m still riding:
Bear Swing #1 – opened last week, still on.
New aggressive shorts – 10-min bearish Tag ‘n Turn below 5500 only.
Bonus: A Forgotten Trade Hit Target on Monday
You’ll love this.
I had a bearish swing from around 20 March. Honestly, I forgot about it. Wrote it off. It was gathering dust in the corner of my options book.
Then, boom – Monday open… "Order Filled".
Target hit. Gap did the job. Payout in the pocket.
It’s a reminder every trader needs:
“It ain’t over until expiration… and sometimes not even then.”
GEX Analysis Update
Whole and half numbers acting as support and resistance
Expert Insights: Avoid These Rookie Mistakes
❌ Mistake #1: Getting Sucked Into Green Candles
Just because the market bounced doesn’t mean it’s time to flip bull. Watch the levels, not your feelings.
❌ Mistake #2: Cancelling Too Early
The Trade’s Not Over Just Because You’re Bored
Most traders kill good trades because they get impatient.
They cancel too soon. They “manage the trade” to death. Or worse, they chase a green candle and flip bias on a whim.
Here’s what Monday reminded us:
✅ Let the trade breathe.
That bear swing from 20 March? Forgotten. Ignored. Hit target anyway.
✅ Stick to your plan, not your mood.
The market rallied. But did it change the structure? No. Still below 5700. Still bearish bias.
✅ A good trade doesn’t need your babysitting.
Set the rules. Place the trade. Walk away. Check back later with a smile.
The traders who win are the ones who stop trying to outsmart their own system.
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Fun Fact
In 1999, a 15-year-old stock trader named Jonathan Lebed made over $800,000 pumping penny stocks from his bedroom... before the SEC came knocking.
Moral of the story? Markets will always reward confidence, consistency, and a little bit of cunning – but it’s the trader who sticks to a rule-based system who lasts beyond the headlines.
Monthly Chart SPX Cautious Liquidity PositioningThis month, the S&P 500 (SPX) has shown signs of a cautious liquidity shift as investors take a more measured approach to risk. While the index remains near all-time highs, underlying market activity suggests hesitation rather than aggressive buying. I currently have no active positions.
Investors are rotating out of high-growth stocks and into more defensive sectors like utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples. This shift signals concerns about potential volatility, possibly due to upcoming Federal Reserve decisions, economic data, or geopolitical risks. At the same time, large tech stocks—key drivers of the market rally—are seeing some profit-taking, further indicating a more defensive stance.
In the options market, there has been increased demand for downside protection. A rising put-to-call ratio and higher implied volatility suggest that traders are preparing for potential pullbacks rather than chasing new highs. Retail speculation has also slowed, with lower volumes in leveraged ETFs and call options.
Another sign of caution is the increase in money market fund inflows, as investors park cash in short-term instruments offering attractive yields. The U.S. Treasury’s ongoing debt issuance is also pulling liquidity away from equities.
While the Federal Reserve has hinted at possible rate cuts later this year, inflation remains a concern, keeping policymakers on hold for now. Market expectations for rate cuts have been pushed further out, tightening financial conditions and limiting excess liquidity that previously fueled stock market gains.
Overall, SPX liquidity trends this month suggest the market is at a turning point. While the index remains strong, the cautious stance in underlying market activity raises questions about whether stocks can continue higher without a fresh catalyst.
How low will it go? The S&P Bear MarketI don't believe the market has bottomed yet. There is more to come.
Trump's tariffs will continue to cause uncertainty and as economic figures confirm a US slowdown, stock markets could fall further.
From a technical perspective, I will be looking to buy between 4700 and 5200. This is based on evident weekly horizontal levels, bullish channel support, and 100 and 200 SMA's.
VANTAGE:SP500 PEPPERSTONE:US500 ICMARKETS:US500 OANDA:SPX500USD
US500 Long Setup – 15M | NYC Reversal from Demand Bias: Bullish Trade Setup Overview:
After a deep selloff and subsequent accumulation pattern, US500 printed a clean bullish reaction from the lower demand zone during the NY session, signaling a potential continuation to the upside.
Key Confluences:
🔹 Accumulation + Manipulation Phase Complete
The chart shows classic Wyckoff accumulation followed by manipulation below short-term lows, leading into an aggressive NY open rally—suggesting institutional involvement.
🔹 Entry From Demand + FVG Reclaim
Price tagged the 5676.5 level, which aligns with the edge of a refined 15M FVG and an H1 demand zone. Strong rejection and follow-through confirms buyer strength.
🔹 Clean Break of Supply Structure
Price has pierced through a previous short-term supply zone, turning it into potential support. This is a signal that bulls are reclaiming control.
Bias: Bullish
Entry: 5676.5
Stop Loss: 5660.4
Take Profits:
TP1: 5693.6
TP2: 5720.0
TP3: 5781.6
3-MONTH THE SQUID GAME II 'JUBILEE'. WHAT IS NOW & WHAT IS NEXTIt's gone three months or so... (Duh..? WTF.. 3 months, really? 😸😸😸) since "The Squid Game" Season II has been released on December 26, 2024.
Nearly month later comrade Trump entered The White House (again).
Still, everyone was on a rush, chatting endless "Blah-Blah-Blah", "I-crypto-czar", "crypto-capital-of-the-world", "we-robot", "mambo-jumbo", "super-duper", AI, VR and so on hyped bullsh#t.
Here's a short educational breakdown, what we think about all of that, at our beloved @PandorraResearch Team.
Trading can easily resemble gambling when approached without discipline, strategy, or proper risk management. Here are key reasons to avoid gambling-like trading behaviors, supported by real-world examples:
1. Lack of Strategy and Emotional Decision-Making
Trading becomes gambling when decisions are based on emotions, intuition, or market hype rather than thorough analysis. For instance, Geraldine lost £15,000 on a spread-betting platform after attending a workshop that taught ineffective strategies. She believed the platform profited from her losses, highlighting how impulsive, uneducated decisions can lead to significant financial harm. Similarly, traders who overtrade or ignore risk management often experience devastating losses, as they rely on luck rather than a structured plan.
2. Overleveraging and One-Sided Bets
Overleveraging—opening excessively large positions—is a common gambling behavior in trading. This approach increases stress and the likelihood of substantial losses. A trader who lost $400,000 on a single Robinhood bet exemplifies this. He overinvested in a call option, hoping for a quick profit, but the trade turned against him, wiping out nearly all his capital. Opening one-sided bets or adding to losing positions further compounds risks, as traders attempt to recover losses through increasingly risky moves.
3. Ignoring Stop Losses and Risk Management
Failing to set stop losses or refusing to exit losing trades is another form of gambling. Traders who cling to their biases and avoid cutting losses often face irreversible damage to their portfolios. For example, many traders refuse to take stop losses, leading to catastrophic losses that erode their confidence and capital. This behavior mirrors the destructive cycle of gambling addiction, where individuals chase losses in hopes of a turnaround.
4. Psychological and Financial Consequences
Gambling-like trading can lead to severe psychological and financial consequences. Harry, a trader with a gambling addiction, repeatedly lost money despite asking his trading platform to restrict his account. His inability to control his trading behavior highlights the addictive nature of high-risk trading and its potential to ruin lives. Similarly, excessive gambling has been linked to increased debt, bankruptcy, and mental health issues, such as anxiety and depression.
5. Long-Term Sustainability
Smart trading focuses on steady gains and minimal losses, whereas gambling relies on luck and high-risk bets. Traders who chase big wins often lose their profits in subsequent trades, perpetuating a cycle of losses. Studies show that frequent trading, driven by overconfidence or problem gambling, reduces investment returns and increases financial instability.
In conclusion, avoiding gambling-like trading requires discipline, education, and a well-defined strategy. Real-world examples demonstrate the dangers of emotional decision-making, overleveraging, and ignoring risk management. By adopting a structured approach and prioritizing long-term sustainability, traders can mitigate risks and avoid the pitfalls of gambling.
--
Best 'squid' wishes,
@PandorraResearch Team
SPX - Where Rebound?Possible reversal level is at the lower boundary of the channel in wave 4 of the upper order
The correction picture into AprilMy feeling here is we are finishing a B wave down in the next day or two and then a C wave up to 5900 +. I explain the structure and RSI on SP500
S&P500 - Donald Trump Is Crashing Markets!S&P500 ( TVC:SPX ) is starting a correction:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Since Donald Trump was elected the markets have been super volatile and clearly not too easy to trade. But now it seems like bears are slowly taking over the entire U.S. stock market after we just saw a drop of -10% within a couple of days and a correction becomes more and more likely.
Levels to watch: $6.100, $4.800
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
S&P 500 Index(USA) AnalysisI have analyze S&P500 index from USA market. And it is looking weak. I have used various technique to analyze it and then reached conclusion for this target. Stop loss is 5775. Target is given as Apple below.
Stock Market Bull TrapThis could be another VERY sneaky bull trap morphing into existence for stock markets.
You have been warned.
