Cycles and PatternsThe pattern seems to be a WXY (abc X abc) I expect a low Monday with a good bull trapping bounce, but then a lower low at the end of the week.
US500FU trade ideas
2pm updateqqq has filled it's gap, spy hasn't Some megacaps are at strong support, where usually buyers would step in. No guarantee this reverses. Monday may be a flush to 535 on SPY
S&P 500 Struggling Ahead of Key Economic ReportsThe S&P 500 is showing signs of weakness as it approaches a critical juncture ahead of tomorrow’s economic reports. After a sharp V-shaped recovery, the index is now facing resistance and struggling to maintain upward momentum. If key support levels fail to hold, we could see further downside in the coming sessions.
Key Levels to Watch:
5,700 - 5,720: A significant resistance zone where recent rallies have stalled. A break above this level could signal renewed bullish momentum.
5,650 - 5,670: A minor support area that previously acted as a pivot. Losing this level could increase selling pressure.
5,520 - 5,504: A major support zone that must hold to prevent further downside. If broken, it could trigger a larger sell-off.
5,350 - 5,400: A potential next area of support if the index continues to slide. This level aligns with previous consolidation zones.
4,790 - 4,800: A worst-case scenario target if market sentiment deteriorates significantly.
Technical Breakdown:
The current price action suggests a potential reversal if support levels do not hold. The index has failed to reclaim key resistance and is now at risk of breaking down further. Volume has increased during recent selling, indicating stronger downside pressure.
The next move will likely be dictated by tomorrow’s reports. If economic data comes in weaker than expected, it could fuel concerns of a slowdown, leading to further selling. Conversely, stronger-than-expected data may provide temporary relief, but resistance levels still need to be reclaimed for the uptrend to resume.
Market Sentiment and Strategy:
A break below 5,504 could trigger a wave of selling, making downside targets more likely.
If support holds and we see a strong bounce, it could offer a short-term buying opportunity.
Given increased volatility, traders should be cautious and monitor key levels closely.
With economic data on the horizon, the S&P 500 is at a critical decision point. The next 24-48 hours will determine whether the recent recovery holds or if further downside is ahead.
$SPX BOOOM Perfectly Nailed the Bottom in last nights video
5505/5485 Bull put spreads were the money play today on that drop. And of course that would have been the place to go long on the day.
new indicator using options data ++ some project i'm working on.
# Analysis of the S&P 500 Trading Dashboard Data
I'll explain the key data elements used in this technical analysis dashboard and how they contribute to the trading conclusions.
## Key Price Levels and Their Significance
The dashboard identifies several critical price levels for the S&P 500:
- **Max Pain ($5,785)**: This represents the price level where options writers would experience the least financial pain (i.e., where the fewest options contracts would be in-the-money). The distance from the current price ($5,557.41) to max pain suggests significant upside resistance.
- **Resistance Levels ($5,700 and $5,650)**: These represent areas where selling pressure is expected to increase. The $5,700 level is backed by data showing 13,877 call option contracts at this strike, creating a "wall" of resistance.
- **Short Entry Zone ($5,595)**: This level was previously support that has been broken, making it a high-probability entry zone for short positions following the principle that broken support becomes resistance.
- **Battle Zone ($5,550)**: An area with heavy options activity on both sides (puts and calls), indicating potential price volatility and uncertainty.
- **Critical Support ($5,500)**: A psychologically important round number that also represents a significant technical level.
- **Target Levels ($5,450 and $5,400)**: Projected price targets for short positions based on previous support levels and technical measurements.
## Options Market Data
Two key options metrics are used to inform the analysis:
1. **Put/Call Ratio (1.80)**: This is significantly elevated above the typical range of 0.7-1.2, indicating:
- Unusually bearish sentiment
- Hedging activity by institutional investors
- Potential for a contrarian bounce if it exceeds 2.0
The high ratio suggests market participants are purchasing put options for downside protection at an elevated rate compared to call options, confirming bearish positioning.
2. **Gamma Exposure (-$17.37 Billion)**: This negative value indicates:
- Market makers are net short gamma
- They must sell more futures as prices fall to maintain delta hedges
- This creates a self-reinforcing downward spiral effect
Gamma exposure represents the rate of change in delta (directional exposure) for options market makers. The large negative value suggests that downward price movement will accelerate as market makers must sell more futures to remain hedged, creating a "cascade effect" amplifying price movement.
## Technical Indicators and Their Interpretation
The dashboard incorporates several technical analysis components:
### Price Action & Moving Averages
The analysis indicates price is trading below all major moving averages (20/50/100/200 EMAs), a classic sign of bearish momentum across timeframes. When price trades below all these moving averages in sequence, it creates what traders call "bearish alignment," a strong confirmation of downtrend.
### Momentum Indicators
- **RSI (Below 30)**: Indicates oversold conditions but in a strong downtrend, oversold conditions can persist. The analysis correctly warns against fighting the trend despite the oversold reading.
- **MACD (Below signal line)**: Confirms negative momentum is in place, suggesting continued downward pressure.
- **ACWF (Negative)**: A specialized momentum indicator showing continued bearish pressure.
### Volume Analysis
- **On-Balance Volume (Declining)**: Indicates more volume on down days than up days, suggesting distribution (selling pressure).
- **Volume on Down Bars (Increasing)**: Higher volume on declining price moves is a classic sign of seller control and distribution.
### Chart Patterns
- **Head & Shoulders Pattern (Completed)**: A reversal pattern that typically projects further downside after completion.
- **Elliott Wave Count (Wave 3)**: Wave 3 is typically the strongest and longest wave in Elliott Wave theory, suggesting significant continuation of the downtrend.
## Volatility Assessment
The ATR (Average True Range) values of 9.18-98.75 indicate elevated and increasing volatility, which informs the risk management recommendations:
- Reduce position size
- Use wider stop losses
- Expect larger price swings
This is prudent risk management in high-volatility environments, as normal position sizing could lead to premature stopouts due to wider price swings.
## Trading Recommendation Logic
The primary strategy (65% probability) of continued downside is based on the confluence of:
1. Bearish technical indicators across multiple timeframes
2. Negative gamma exposure creating a self-reinforcing downward spiral
3. Broken support levels and completed bearish chart patterns
4. Wave 3 Elliott Wave structure which typically has the strongest momentum
The strategy recommends:
- Entry at $5,590-5,600 (former support, now resistance)
- Stop loss above $5,625 (limiting risk to approximately 30 points)
- Targets at key support levels: $5,500, $5,450, and $5,400
- Reduced position size due to high volatility
The alternative strategy (35% probability) acknowledges the potential for a reversal at the $5,500 psychological support level, but only with confirmation signals like volume decline and stabilization patterns.
## Educational Elements
The dashboard incorporates several educational elements:
1. **Elliott Wave Theory**: The identification of Wave 3 of a 5-wave downtrend sequence suggests the current move is likely the strongest part of the larger bearish structure.
2. **Options Market Mechanics**: Explanation of how negative gamma exposure creates a self-reinforcing price action effect as market makers hedge their positions.
3. **Technical Analysis Patterns**: Clear labeling of patterns like the Head & Shoulders and broken uptrend line, along with their implications.
4. **Risk Management**: Specific recommendations for position sizing and stop placement in a high-volatility environment.
This analysis combines price action, options market data, technical indicators, volume analysis, and chart patterns to create a comprehensive trading approach with specific entry, exit, and risk management parameters.
SPX500 Technical Analysis🔹 Trend Overview:
SPX500 has been in a strong downtrend, and the price has already broken the 5,599.30 support level, confirming further bearish momentum. The next key support to watch is 5,506.40 (2025 lowest point).
🔹 Key Levels:
📈 Resistance: 5,599.30 (now turned resistance), 5,679.90
📉 Support: 5,506.40 – If broken, the sell-off could accelerate further.
🔹 Market Structure:
⚠️ Bearish scenario: Since 5,599.30 has already been broken, the price is likely to continue down to 5,506.40. A break below this level could push the market into new 2025 lows.
🚀 Bullish scenario: If the market pulls back above 5,599.30 and reclaims it as support, a temporary bounce to 5,679.90 could occur.
📌 Risk Management:
-Wait for price action confirmation before entering new positions.
-Monitor for potential retests of broken levels.
Bullish Entry Spotted – Now We Wait...Bullish Entry Spotted – Now We Wait... | SPX Analysis 28 Mar 2025
Imagine the market dressed like Jack Nicholson in One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest—slack-jawed, glassy-eyed, and strapped into a straightjacket made of indecision. That’s been the vibe all week. SPX continues to shuffle back and forth around 5700 like it's lost its meds and forgot where it was going. But if you’ve been following the plan, none of this should be surprising.
We mapped it out on Monday, discussed it live in our Fast Forward mentorship call, and here we are watching it all play out with popcorn in hand. Today’s action may seem like “not much ado about anything,” but if you know what to look for… there’s gold in this grind.
---
The end of March has the feel of a market that’s had one too many – not enough to fall over, but just enough to slur its way through price action.
All week we’ve been dancing around the 5700 level – and for good reason. It’s acting as a triple threat:
The GEX Flip Point
The prior range high
And now, the Bollinger Bands have closed in to confirm this as a possible launch (or rejection) zone.
Add in the emergence of a pinch point, and what we’ve got is a market that’s coiling like a spring… but refusing to actually bounce.
📈 Bullish Swing Activated:
During Monday’s Fast Forward group session, we mapped out a key level to watch for pulse bars. Lo and behold, the market obliged. I entered a bullish swing trade after seeing those bars fire right at the expected spot. No surprises, no panic – just execution.
🐻 Bear Swing Trigger Set:
If the market does decide to do a dramatic nosedive, I’ve marked 5675 as my bear/hedge trigger – just under Thursday’s lows. Until then, it’s a game of “wait, watch, and get ready to stack the next trade.”
💤 Nothing Much? Still Profitable:
Look, I get it – this week’s been slower than a BBC period drama. But just because things move at glacial speed doesn’t mean there’s nothing to do. As always, it’s about planning the trade, then trading the plan – not reacting to every twitch like a caffeinated squirrel.
And if you’re wondering how the market feels…
Let’s just say the “moves” this week have been scratchier than usual, so I’ll be looking for a special cream over the weekend.
---
The first “stock ticker” was powered by telegraph wires and clock springs. It was invented in 1867 by Edward Calahan… who was just 22 years old at the time.
Before computers, before real-time data feeds, and way before Robinhood traders turned market moves into meme fodder – we had the ticker tape. Edward Calahan, a young telegraph operator, created the first stock ticker machine using the same tech that powered telegrams. It printed stock prices on a long ribbon of paper, allowing traders to see “live” quotes for the first time.
This primitive marvel revolutionised Wall Street – traders no longer had to wait hours (or days) for price updates. And now here we are, trading from our phones while sipping lattes and watching pulse bars ping in real-time. Technology, eh?
--
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
p.s. Ready to stop scratching your head and start stacking profits?
If you want to trade with clarity – not confusion – then it’s time to get serious about structure.
🔥 Join the Fast Forward Mentorship – trade live, twice a week, with me and the crew. PLUS Monthly on-demand 1-2-1's
📺 Or watch the free training to see the SPX Income System in action.
No fluff. Just profits, pulse bars, and patterns that actually work.
S&POne last trade for the day, same as NAS100 this pair just swept sellers and went for buyers if this is an inverted sell we'll move with it
S&P 500 Index(USA) AnalysisI have analyze S&P500 index from USA market. And it is looking weak. I have used various technique to analyze it and then reached conclusion for this target. Stop loss is 5775. Target is given as Apple below.
S&P 500 Wave Analysis – 1 April 2025
- S&P 500 reversed from support area
- Likely to rise to resistance level 5700.00
S&P 500 index recently reversed from the support area located between the support level 5500.00 (low of the previous wave (A)), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the uptrend from August.
The downward reversal from this support area stopped the earlier short-term impulse wave 1 of the downward impulse sequence (C) from the end of March.
Given the improving sentiment across the equity markets and the strength of the support level 5500.00, S&P 500 index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 5700.00.
0 DTE Call Spread - SPX0 DTE Call Spread
-5755 +5760
4.48% gain on cap invested
Started at 0.5 Delta
S&P500 BuysI've set a buy limit on this indice based on the ICT concept the sell to buy model mixed with the MMBM
S&P500 Short: Expecting Price to Fall back below trendlineFor this idea, there are 2 things to take note:
1. I believe the breakout to the upside to be a false breakout. Thus price should fall back into the channel.
2. The "C" wave is slightly shorter than "A" wave, but it shouldn't matter since corrective wave does not conform to the "3rd wave cannot be the shortest" rule.
If you are an active trader, you can choose to place your stop where I indicated. But if you are really more swing trader and can take wider swings, then I recommend putting stop above where the Fibonacci shows 1.
Good luck!
Midpoint Gap Theory 3/26/2025Start with the assumption we hit 6165 on 3/31/2025.
Continue with assumption that tomorrow we gap up.
The middle of that gap is the middle of the entire move.
Hence the target set.
"US500/SPX500" Indices Market Heist Plan (Scalping / Day Trade)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
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Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the MA breakout (5780) then make your move - Bullish profits await!"
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📌I strongly advise you to set an alert on your chart so you can see when the breakout entry occurs.
Stop Loss 🛑:
Thief SL placed at the recent/swing low level Using the 30m timeframe (5700) Day trade basis.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
🏴☠️Target 🎯: 5860 (or) Escape Before the Target
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"US500/SPX500" Indices Market Heist Plan (Scalping / Day Trade) is currently experiencing a bullishness,., driven by several key factors.
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[W] SP500 - 24.3.2025This has been an unusually disturbing prediction that I have ever made, and yet so long expected. It's also probably for the first time, I do it on a weekly chart! The huge question mark here, is how FED will react to stagflation turning into a recession, and to recession with a looming threat to progress further. At some point, they might be tempted to act with low rate and EQ, which will further increase already high Gini index and might eventually cause defaults on loans and mortages. Thus, causing a crisis not seen since 2008. The current president Donald Trump might want to distract from the increasingly worsening domestic situation by seeking and external (and internal) enemy, further strengthening his grip on power. While the entire situation might provide a temporary boost to the defense sector alongside with utilities, foreign capital and trade will likely diminish. Unlike the 2008 crisis that was caused predominantly by internal factors, this case might be marked by geopolitical isolation which threatens to leave a much deeper scar.
S&P nearing the 38% retracement and flag top! Intraday Update: The S&P futures are up today following possible tariff news being factored in from some weekend headlines about "targeted reciprocal tariffs" for April 2nd, which is allowing for the S&P to near the 38% retracement which would be the top of the beer flag pattern and setup.
MARKET ALERT: Sound the AlarmOver the past few years as price has reached major potential turning points in the market I have sounded the alarm that LONG SIDE RISK has risen and to be on HIGH ALERT for a potential downturn.
Of course as we have seen this Bull Market has had significant legs and has continued to grind higher.
What now?
I told you in September that it did not matter who was elected that the Market would turn weak...and it did
We have been going essentially sideways since November
I also said that around Jan 15th the market would turn lower...and it has
I also said that lower move would take us down to the 5600-5700 region..and it did
Now I am telling you that we are setting up for what appears to be ONE FINAL PUSH HIGHER
Where does that move take us?
Somewhere near 6500
What happens after that?
You can expect a SWIFT CRASH LIKE move back to almost exactly where we are now but probably around 5400
And its at THAT point that ALL CARDS WILL BE ON THE TABLE
You should expect a retracement back up from that 5400 region
If that retracement is CLEARLY CORRECTIVE in nature then you can expect a move down to 5000 and if the market cant hold that region then its: GAME OVER
Can I be wrong? Absolutely...and for the sake of the people I love, this country that I call home and my brotherhood of fellow humans around the world I HONESTLY HOPE I AM
Because if I'm not wrong then whats coming over the next decade will be potentially MUCH WORSE THAN A RECESSION
PREPARE YOURSELF
SPX Death Cross Late April?If you look at the 200 and 50 MA we can see they will be converging in late April. If there is a relief rally, it will most likely top out around the 100 MA level. Either way it is not looking good right now.
What Do the S&P 500 and Nasdaq’s Charts Say?Let's take a look at charts for the S&P 500 SP:SPX S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite Index NASDAQ:IXIC to see where the market might be heading.
The S&P 500’s Technical Picture
Take a look at the S&P 500’s chart going back to early January:
Check out the market action from last Friday (March 14) -- a day when New York Stock Exchange winners beat losers by roughly 16 to 3.
Advancing volume took a commanding 90.1% share of composite NYSE-listed trade, and an almost as impressive 80.8% share of composite Nasdaq-listed activity.
However, aggregate trade nonetheless dropped 3.1% on a day-over-day basis across NYSE-domiciled names and 0.8% for Nasdaq-listed ones.
In other words, there was less conviction in last Friday's rally than was visible in any of the recent down days that led to that session.
As a matter of fact, that Friday was the quietest trading day for S&P 500 stocks since Feb. 20 -- more than three weeks earlier. Hence, we could probably not call Friday’s rally a change in trend.
Then came the Federal Reserve’s latest monetary-policy statement and press conference this past Wednesday (March 19).
The Fed left rates unchanged, but its “dot plot” reiterated that the central bank still expects to cut rates by 50 basis points this year – news that helped send the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up more than 1% each.
Would technical analysis have told us to expect this?
Well, readers will note that the chart above shows a so-called “double top” pattern of bearish reversal from early January through late February (marked “Top 1” and “Top 2” in the red boxes above.
Next, the S&P saw what we call "Day One" of the bearish change in trend on Feb. 21, marked with an orange box in the chart above.
A “Day One” isn’t necessarily the first day of a trend change. Instead, it’s merely the first day of a trend change that occurs broadly and on sharply increased trading volume.
The S&P 500’s “Day One” above was followed by a so-called "Confirmation Day" on Feb. 27.
A “Confirmation Day” is a session that confirms a trend change. It can come anywhere from two days to several days after the Day One.
However, a Confirmation Day must represent a broad move and come on increased trading volume -- and there’s also a catch. There must be a pause in between the Day One and the Confirmation Day.
This suggests that portfolio managers took some time, thought about what they were doing and then continued to either increase or decrease exposure depending on the Confirmation Day’s pattern (up or down).
Without this pause, what we would have is one long move that doesn’t confirm anything technically.
In the above chart, all of what we saw was a spot-on sign of a double-top pattern.
But next came a so-called "Outside Day" on March 3 -- a one-day pattern that hinted at increased volatility to come.
An Outside Day occurs when the trading range of a given day completely envelopes the day prior and the open and close of said day also encompass the open and close of the day prior. This one-day pattern often signals a coming period of increased volatility.
Next, the S&P 500 saw a so-called "faux Day One” last Friday, March 14. That could have kicked off a bullish change in trend, but the S&P 500 rose on light trading volume.
Additionally, the SPX never made a serious run at retaking its 200-day Simple Moving Average (or “SMA,” marked with a red upwardly sloping line above).
Technical analysis won’t tell us much about the S&P 500 (or the Nasdaq Composite, for that matter) as long as those indexes trade below their 200-day SMAs. That often keeps portfolio managers on the sidelines.
In fact, much of the swing crowd tones down their activity as well as long as the major indices don’t even make a run at their respective 21-day Exponential Moving Averages (or “EMAs,” denoted by the green line above).
Also note that even on the down day of March 18, the S&P 500’s trading volume (marked with gray bars in the chart above) continued to tail off a bit, indicating increasing uncertainty.
That said, readers will see a slight uptick in trading volume for this past Wednesday (Fed Day). The S&P 500 was up nicely that day, and got off to a good start on Thursday (March 20) as well.
Alone, that’s not enough to christen a new "Day One" of a bullish trend reversal, partly because the Nasdaq Composite was not as active (as readers will see below).
Typically, Wall Street would like to see both major indexes up on sharply increased trading volume to declare a “Day One” bullish reversal. The SPX and Nasdaq have come very close to allowing us to do that, but don’t appear to be there yet.
Technical Analysis for the Nasdaq Composite Index
Next, let’s look at the Nasdaq Composite’s chart going back to early December:
The Nasdaq appears more challenged than the S&P 500 at this time, but both are close to giving us the first step of what the bulls need to see.
As with the SPX, the Nasdaq Composite saw a “double-top” bearish pattern in December and January (marked “Top 1” and “Top 2” above).
The index then saw a “Day One” and a “Confirmation Day” in late February, followed by an “Outside Day” on March 3.
It then saw an “Up Day” on March 19, although on lower trading volume. And as with the S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite has yet to retake its 200-day SMA (the upwardly sloping red line in the chart above).
The Bottom Line
Add it all up and the major US equity indices look like they remain in a downtrend.
We still need to see a "Day One” move to the upside, then a pause and then a "Confirmation Day."
That could take up to a week, but to rush into things without confirmation is closer to gambling than it is to trading.
Again, the 200-day SMA is perhaps the most important item to watch on these charts. That's where large flows of capital will come from … if portfolio managers decide to increase their overall long-side exposure.
(Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle had no position in the securities mentioned at the time of writing this column.)
This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material.
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The Election Was Support. Has it Become Resistance?Last year’s presidential election was a catalyst for stocks. Today’s idea considers its potentially shifting impact on sentiment.
The first pattern on today’s S&P 500 chart is the range between 5597 and 5783. Those prices are the low of November 4 and the high of November 5, the Monday and Tuesday of election week.
On January 13, SPX pulled back to find support at the top of the range. That bounce seemed to reflect ongoing optimism about the coming administration. (Inauguration was exactly a week later.)
The index remained above that zone through early March before sliding below it. Prices have now rebounded but appear to be stalling at the bottom of the price range. Does that show a newer anxiety about policy?
Next, Wilder’s relative strength index (RSI) made lower highs from early December -- despite SPX making incrementally higher highs. That kind of bearish divergence may be consistent with a longer-term trend fading.
Third, SPX is under its 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Staying here may confirm a break of its longer-term uptrend.
Finally, the 50-day SMA recently crossed below 100-day SMA. Both are falling. That may also suggest prices have stopped rising.
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Approaching Death Cross!When the 50 – day Simple Moving Average (SMA) crosses below the 200 – day SMA it’s called a “Death Cross” and frequently signals additional selling.
The S&P 500 (SPX) is close to a Death Cross!
