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US 500 - Rolling Future (Per 1.0)US 500 - Rolling Future (Per 1.0)US 500 - Rolling Future (Per 1.0)

US 500 - Rolling Future (Per 1.0)

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US500FU trade ideas

US500: A correction will give a perfect opportunityHello, The US500 has rebounded, maintaining its trendline as trade tension concerns subside. A promising trade setup is emerging, pending a minor correction on lower timeframes. The 2-hour and 4-hour charts indicate this correction is underway. Long term target: $6,953 Consider entering a buy position near the moving averages, aligned with MACD signals. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:US500Long
by thesharkke
May 6, 2025 - Markets Hold Their Breath Before Powell SpeaksHello everyone, it’s May 6, 2025 and markets are once again at the mercy of politics, Powell, and presidential mood swings. After a 9-day rally, U.S. markets finally took a breather yesterday, with mild profit-taking ahead of the much-anticipated Federal Reserve decision. Investors are caught between two competing visions: Trump’s push for massive rate cuts, insisting inflation is a myth cooked up by bureaucrats, and Powell’s more sober stance acknowledging inflation isn’t dead, the economy is softening, and premature easing could trigger full-blown stagflation. With Friday’s job report stronger than expected, Powell is expected to hold rates steady, staying cautious while tariffs and growth clouds loom. Markets are pricing in a July cut at best, but uncertainty lingers mostly around what Trump might tweet in reaction to Powell’s speech tomorrow night. Meanwhile, despite the 90-day tariff moratorium, the trade war narrative hasn’t vanished. NYSE:F suspended its 2025 outlook, citing $1.5 billion in expected tariff costs and four major risks: disrupted supply chains, retaliatory measures, unclear tax policies, and emission rules. NASDAQ:MAT is also hedging its bets shifting production out of China and pausing forecasts, while begging for zero tariffs on toys “for the kids.” Their stocks dropped modestly after hours. OANDA:XAUUSD surged again to $3,368, as fear and safe-haven demand ticked up. BLACKBULL:WTI rebounded to over $58 following an OPEC statement, helping airline stocks breathe a bit. BINANCE:BTCUSDT continued its meteoric rise, now sitting around $94,400. On the macro front, inflation data like CPI and PPI are being shrugged off everyone’s waiting to see if Powell plays ball with Trump. There’s hope, too, that all this chaos is just Trump’s way of muscling the world into negotiation especially China and if a “deal” emerges, markets could rip higher. Until then, we’re stuck dancing between uncertainty and hope. Asia opened strong this morning, led by China’s cautious optimism. Futures point slightly lower in the U.S., and volatility remains king. The Fed could flip the script tomorrow or keep us hanging. Stay buckled in.
SP:SPX
by SmartApingAI
$SPX / $SP500 – China Deal or Global Meltdown? The Risk/Reward 📉 The S&P 500 ( SP:SPX / VANTAGE:SP500 / $ES_F) is at a geopolitical crossroads. After the Global Pause, the index rebounded, but only to retest resistance near the 200-day EMA. Now it faces a binary outcome: Scenario A: ✅ Deal with China Estimated probability: 20% Potential upside: +10% Expected value: +2% Scenario B: ❌ No Deal with China Estimated probability: 80% Potential downside: -50% Expected value: -40% 📉 Expected move: -38% net Markets are not priced for this. Volatility ( TVC:VIX ) is quietly coiling under the surface (chart 2), ready to explode if the no-deal scenario materializes.
VANTAGE:SP500
by SmartSignalss
S&P 500 - Sell in May, return anther day. The truth - 2025No doubt everyone has heard a variation of the phrase: “Sell in May, return another day.” In Wikipedia it is written: “Sell in May and go away is an investment strategy for stocks based on a theory (sometimes known as the Halloween indicator) that the period from November to April inclusive has significantly stronger stock market growth on average than the other months. In such strategies, stock holdings are sold or minimised at about the start of May and the proceeds held in cash” A public comment from last year: “Over 100 years ago, the (practical) reason to sell in May and September, was to pay seasonal workers to seed the field (May) and to harvest (September). Caravans of landlords and farm owners went to New York to sell stocks and withdrew money from the banks to do payrolls so for people without agricultural business, i'll say it's okay to hold in May” If we are to take all this at face value then we should be unwinding our long term positions until the Autumn? What does the chart say? On the above monthly chart of the S&P 500 each vertical line marks the month of May going back to 2012. That is a dataset of 13 points. The facts: 1) From the month of May onwards, 11 from 13 periods returned positive price action of not less than 10%. Selling in May was a bad choice. 2) 2015 and 2022 saw corrections of 15% from May onwards. However in both examples the correction was erased within 12 months as the index continued the uptrend. In summary, 86% of the time a minimum return of 10% was seen before the year end. Amazing odds. Furthermore, corrections up and until the end of April (like we’re now seeing) represented some of the best long opportunities. Sell in May go away? I suggest it should be: Buy in June and watch it boom! Ww
SP:SPX
by without_worries
73
Major shift on the S&P 500: Is the bull market really over ? After three years of almost uninterrupted gains, the U.S. market has finally shifted gears. In early March, following a sharp escalation in trade tensions between China and the United States, the S&P 500 officially entered a bear market. The tariff shock acted as a catalyst: buyers failed to defend critical levels, and the bullish momentum broke down. Today, my scenario is clear: I believe we are entering a wide range similar to what we saw in 2022, between 4700 and 5500 points. In this controlled volatility environment, both investing and trading strategies must adapt. 💰 For long-term investing: I'm staying fully in cash. I prefer to wait until my personal indicator flashes green again before re-entering the market. Patience is my best weapon in uncertain environments. 🎯 For swing trading: The approach here is more active. Each touch of the lower boundary (around 4700) will be considered a tactical buy, aiming to resell around 5500 points at the top of the range. No rushing, no chasing moves: I only act at the extremes.
SP:SPXShort
by LAZY_SMART_TRADING
Weekend Trading Note - 3 May 2025A couple of interesting dynamics in the market over the latter half of the week: - Minimal reaction to economic data suggests that traders are weighing the pull between deflation and tariffs, which are undoubtedly putting the fed in a bind. Can they raise rates at a time of uncertainty when it comes to tariff-induced inflation. Recent data suggests deflation and a strong economy. Nothing is clear. - The temporary uncoupling of BTC and the Nasdaq100 is interesting, but such narrative-led decoupling has happened on a short-term basis before. Perhaps this time the anti-dollar trade will continue a while longer, until calm is restored. - Businesses seem to be reacting to the Trump uncertainty by slowing down their trading activity and hesitating to invest or grow until more clarity is available. The loss of confidence and reassurance of clear direction may be damaging in the longer-term, elevating the potential for a technical recession as business enter more defensive posturing. - Theres still some potential for good news around a deal between the US and China leading to a return to a risk-on regime in the near-term. The question on whether this will be enough to propel US equities to new all time highs will depend on the pre-existing structural issues with the macroeconomy Enough macro. Here’s what I’m looking at in markets: - SPX has retraced back up to the 0.618 fib of the recent downside move. This coincides with the POC on the anchored volume profile (anchored from the ATH). If the SPX is going to retest the lows, I’d expect it this begin in the next 5-10 days. A complete breakdown below its current lows is unlikely at this stage, but a wick slightly below current lows marking the bottom is definitely on the cards. - BTC’s relative strength is encouraging. A retest of the $88700 level would offer a good entry for a trade back up to the current high at around $109K and perhaps more.
SP:SPX
by volatility_Viking
April 25 crypto and stock market results📈 April portfolio recap: $2,293 in profit despite market decline Each month, I publish performance reports to stay accountable and track the real results of my trading strategies across both stock and crypto markets. In this post, I’ll break down my April 2025 performance — where my portfolio grew, even as the broader market declined. 🏛️ Stock market results: $1,144 profit Despite a red month for the broader market, my equity portfolio performed well: • Monthly return: just above 1% • S&P 500 performance: -44 basis points (−0.44%) Outperforming the S&P 500 in a down month is never easy, but my holdings managed to stay in the green. 🪙 Crypto portfolio: $1,139 recovery My crypto allocation also showed strength in April, largely thanks to my liquidity pool strategy, which is finally beginning to yield real results. • Monthly crypto return: just over 6% • By comparison, simply holding BTC would have yielded around 14% While my strategy didn’t beat Bitcoin in raw percentage terms, it offered recovery after previous drawdowns. 📊 Portfolio Overview • Cumulative profit: $10,000+ • Average portfolio return since inception: ~11.5% I began investing in 2020, and have steadily built a portfolio that balances growth with risk control. My approach involves both active management (via options and selective equities) and passive yield strategies in DeFi. 🔍 What’s Next? I’ll continue to post live trade updates, monthly recaps, and strategy breakdowns. If you’re interested in real portfolio transparency and real-time insights — follow along.
SP:SPXLong
by grigori-ilkevich
US500 at Critical Resistance - Weekly Chart Breakdown📊 US500 Weekly Chart Analysis Taking a close look at the US500 on the weekly timeframe, we can see price has now traded directly into a bearish weekly order block 🧱 — a key distribution zone where smart money activity often emerges. At this level, the market is trading at a premium 💰 and appears to be overextended 📈. ⚠️ From a risk management standpoint, I’d advise extreme caution — the current conditions could set the stage for a sharp retracement, especially as we approach week’s end. This level aligns with areas where institutional players may look to offload risk or reverse exposure. 🔁 A potential pullback from here would not be surprising, given the elevated context and technical structure. 📚 This breakdown is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by fxtraderanthony
3
Mechanical Over Mood. AlwaysWell, this week really wanted to test both my trading discipline… and my tech patience. My laptop decided to kick the bucket mid-session. But honestly? Not even mad. Because it reminded me of something traders forget too often: Simple is better. Mechanical is best. No charts? No problem. Noisy bias? Ignore it. Just follow the system and let the setups do the work. And right now? The market gave us a Tag off the lower Bollinger Band… Then a Turn with some clean bullish pulse bars… Now we’re tagging the upper band again. Textbook mechanical structure. No predictions. No overlays. Just rules. Yes, compression still lingers – the bands are squeezed tighter than my laptop battery casing. But until something breaks out (or explodes), I’m trading it simple. --- SPX Market View Some days the market whispers. Some days it screams. And then… there are days like this – where it quietly tags, turns, and retags like a kid playing solo hide and seek. Welcome to compression. Welcome to Tag ‘n Turn 2: Return to the Band. Yesterday gave us exactly what we needed: Tag off the lower Bollinger Band Bullish pulse bars firing in sequence Now back to the upper BB as of this morning It’s a full mechanical cycle playing out in slow motion. The band width? Still squeezed. So unless we get a confirmed breakout – no compounding, no fireworks, no fast lane. That’s not a problem. It’s a feature. Why? Because in environments like this, the strategy doesn’t just work – it filters the noise. No guesswork. No hoping. No “is this the one?” Just a defined setup, and a playbook that responds only when the price earns it. I’m staying bullish as long as this range holds. Pulse bars off the highs or lows? I’m in. Breakout confirmed? Let’s ride it. Dip to mid-band? Still valid. The structure is intact. The setup is valid. And even if my laptop’s dying breath is a warning beep, I’ll still be trading off what matters. Trade the system. Trust the sequence. Let the rest break down. --- Expert Insights: Mistake #1: Overcomplicating compressed conditions. Compression doesn’t mean “do more” – it means “do less, better.” Fix: Let the pulse bar do the talking. Keep your setup clean. Mistake #2: Ignoring band re-tags as valid setups. Returning to the upper or lower band doesn’t invalidate the prior move. Fix: Use structure. Re-tags can still deliver if pulse bars confirm. Mistake #3: Letting tech failures bleed into trading decisions. Just because your screen flickers doesn’t mean your system broke. Fix: Stay mechanical. Even from a mobile. It’s not the gear – it’s the method. --- Rumour Has It… Wall Street insiders are reporting that Apple’s next product will be the MacBook Trader, a laptop designed specifically to fail whenever Bollinger Bands compress. Features include: An auto-dimming screen whenever pulse bars form A built-in “Hope Mode” that deletes your rulebook And a random error that whispers “maybe just this once…” Traders are advised to plug directly into their mechanical setups or, failing that, scribble strategies on a coffee-stained napkin like it’s 2002. Rumour has it that a squirrel from Central Park is currently outperforming several hedge funds using nothing but broken Fibonacci tools and pure optimism. This is entirely made-up satire. Probably! Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity? --- Fun Fact – Did You Know? The term “Frankenstein” originally came from Mary Shelley’s story of a scientist trying to control something he didn’t fully understand… Which is what most traders do with indicators. They bolt on RSI here, MACD there, sprinkle in some Fibonacci dust, and hope it walks. But the real monsters aren’t the tools – they’re discretionary trades pretending to be mechanical. Moral of the story? You don’t need a stitched-together algo monster. You just need a clean pulse bar, a set of rules, and the ability to sit still.
SP:SPXLong
by MrPhilNewton