SPX bullishI am now bullish in near term. For those following me, I have updated HILO EMA squeeze band with an option to plot more lines as seen this chart. I see a swing high of 5770, although a bit cautious about the month end. Market is tired of Trump tantrums and more focused on earnings which have been great so far. For near term month or two I would be looking for bye the dip
US500FU trade ideas
Into the Close, some thoughts about the price actionA difficult and choppy day again. We did rally from the low to 5525 as I thought, but it's possible this was a squeeze to take shorts out before the bigger move down into the rest of the week. it's difficult to say with big earnings about to hit. The daily candle is forming a hanging man, and it could be a clue. We'll see how it looks tomorrow.
S&P500: VIX confirmed new Bull Cycle, eyes 9,800.S&P500 is on excellent bullish levels on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 66.480, MACD = 76.110, ADX = 38.627) and has technically fulfilled all conditions to extend this recovery and transition into a new Bull Cycle. VIX shows with its massive spike and then aggressive retreat that the correction's bottom is in and is in fact similar to March 2020 (COVID) and March 2009 (subprime crisis). The Bull Cycles after those were similar, the smallest was +105.62%. In accordance to that, we have a long term TP = 9,800.
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Weekly SPX Has A Bottom W Pattern Prompting More Upside!Hey Traders and Followers! SPX is going up!
Sounds crazy despite the tariff news floating around but charts never lie.
Here's what we got on the weekly SPX/USD; We have a bottoming W pattern. What's that mean? We going higher people.
5690.7 is the beakline area, price above invites bulls to a party.
Target for this long is at 6198.9 area. Support sits at 5579.4 for this one.
I'm letting you know about this party so up to you if you want to have a good time. See you all there with bells on and cash for all $ for those who show up.
Best of luck in all your trades $
Cheers!
S&P500 vs BitcoinNormally, when the S&P500 goes into a bear market, Bitcoin follows.
This cycle, however, for the first time, the S&P500 went into a bear market, while BTC remained above its prior all time highs.
This cycle, Bitcoin either proves a new level of resilience among broader economic uncertainty, or a similar pattern is still yet to play out.
Upper Band Holds Post-Breakout - Classic Trend Signal in PlayDéjà vu? Not quite - but today’s session feels a lot like yesterday’s.
We’ve got a fresh mechanical bear trigger from a late-day Tag ‘n Turn setup. But much like the previous session, price action is telling us a different story.
Let’s walk through what I’m looking for.
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SPX Market Briefing
Yesterday’s session started with a bearish bias. But by the end of the day, the market voided the setup via the hedge trigger - and since I wasn’t positioned bearish, it was a clear signal to flip bullish.
Same playbook again today.
I entered yesterday bullish and didn’t babysit the charts. Today, I’m starting with a bearish mechanical trigger, but futures are holding up. There’s also a post-breakout continuation in play that’s clinging to the upper Bollinger Band - a strong sign of bullish trending momentum.
Bollinger himself suggested this as one of the most reliable signs of strength.
So what’s the move?
Bearish trigger? Yes.
Bear entry? Not yet.
I’ll defer bearish entries unless price breaks below the 5880 area, with a v-shaped entry.
If price stays above 5910, I’ll resume bullish activity as needed.
This is shaping up to be another go/no-go decision day - no need to guess, no need to jump early.
Let price make the choice. I’ll respond when it does.
GEX Analysis Update
5900 is looking like the key GEX level again.
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Expert Insights:
Mistake: Taking every mechanical setup without confirming price action
Fix: Use price structure (like Bollinger Band holds) to confirm trend integrity
Mistake: Jumping in without clear invalidation levels
Fix: Predefine bull/bear flip zones - today: 5880 and 5910
Mistake: Over-monitoring slow sessions
Fix: No need to stare at charts - mechanical setups do the heavy lifting
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Rumour Has It…
Bollinger Band Declared Emotional Support Tool
Sources say traders have begun using the upper Bollinger Band like a weighted blanket. “As long as we’re above it,” one trader whispered from beneath a desk, “I feel safe.”
Psychologists confirm it's become a market-wide security blanket, replacing support/resistance zones in all therapy sessions.
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
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Fun Fact
John Bollinger designed his bands in the early 1980s - not just to spot reversals, but also to identify sustained breakouts.
When price hugs the upper band after a breakout, it’s often signalling continuation, not exhaustion. It’s a feature of trend momentum, not a warning of collapse.
Today’s chart is textbook.
The system gives us the setup. But the context? That’s where discretion adds juice to the edge.
S&P 500 index Wave Analysis – 12 May 2025
- S&P 500 index broke resistance area
- Likely to rise to resistance level 5930.00
S&P 500 index recently broke the resistance area between the resistance levels 5800.00 (top of wave 4 from March), 5700.00 (which stopped wave 1 at the start of May) and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from February.
The breakout of this resistance area is aligned with the short-term impulse wave 3 of the intermediate impulse wave (3) from April.
S&P 500 index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 5930.00, former support from January and February.
S&P 500 – an ascending channel on Daily Daily Chart (D1) :
I'm observing an ascending channel, with a potential manipulation near its lower boundary.
If that happens, we may see the formation of a bullish pivot point.
Hourly Chart (H1) :
I've marked the boundaries of the daily channel on H1.
There’s an unfilled gap below, and price might revisit that area.
I’m watching the 5690.7 level closely — it could act as a key zone for potential long setups.
📈 If 5690.7 holds , possible long targets include:
🎯 A break above the local high at 5848
🎯 The upper boundary of the channel, which closely aligns with the anticipated bullish pivot point target
📉 If price fails to hold above 5690.7 and breaks lower,
I’ll start considering short scenarios and will update this idea accordingly.
Continuation of bullish trendSeems that the trade deal between China and USA is behaving well with the general market, in my opinion the market will continue up for a while, however we need to be aware that at some point will need to breath and at least pull back to one of the EMAs, plus since it is now touching the top of the BB it will most likely pull-back at some point in the future, that doesn't mean it will reverse, but instead, give us another opportunity to enter the markets again, in line with the general market and at a good position to capitalize from the market movement.
S&P500 Index Intraday Trend Analysis for May 12, 2025The S&P 500 Index is displaying bullish indications for the day. Key support levels are observed at 5789 and 5755, while resistance is expected around 5860 and 5930.
Please note, this is solely my personal view. Traders are advised to conduct their own technical analysis and ensure proper risk management before making any trading decisions.
SPX – Triple Breakout: Inverse H&S + EMA 200 + Ichimoku CloudSPX has confirmed a powerful bullish breakout with three confluences:
1. Inverse Head & Shoulders breakout
2. 200 EMA breakout
3. Ichimoku Cloud breakout
This alignment of structure, trend, and momentum indicators suggests a potential continuation move toward 6150 in the coming weeks.
Trade View:
Entry: On breakout retest or continuation
Target: 6150
Stop Loss: Below neckline or EMA200 depending on risk tolerance
Bias: Strongly bullish
Turbulence at Sea: A New Phase in International TradeBy Ion Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst
The growing trade tension between China and the United States has once again shaken the foundations of global commerce. In April, container traffic between the two powers fell by 30% to 40%, according to data from Maersk (CPH:MAERSKb), one of the world’s largest logistics operators. This decline comes amid a new wave of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which China could counter with similar measures. Although the conflict has reignited fears of a global trade slowdown, some shipping companies have maintained their annual forecasts thanks to one unexpected factor: the chaos in the Red Sea.
Global Trade Under Question
Maersk, despite the collapse in transpacific routes, has not revised down its profit outlook for 2025. The reason: the logistical disruption in the Red Sea, caused by geopolitical tensions, has driven up maritime freight rates, partially offsetting the drop in volume.
Still, optimism is cautious. The company now expects global trade growth to range between -1% and +4%, a margin that reflects the current high level of uncertainty. Asia-Europe routes are also being affected, and many companies are already seeking alternative logistics — more expensive but safer.
Impact on Other Global Companies
The blow is not exclusive to Maersk. FedEx, DHL, and COSCO Shipping have also reported disruptions in their international operations. Manufacturers such as Apple, Tesla, and Boeing are facing delays and rising costs in their supply chains, particularly in key components coming from Asia.
Industrial giants like Caterpillar and Honeywell, heavily reliant on exports, have seen their margins shrink and growth forecasts revised downward. The retail sector — with giants such as Nike and Walmart — is also feeling the pressure: rising logistics costs, lower momentum in international sales, and difficulties in inventory management.
Market Reaction: S&P 500 and Nasdaq
The effects have quickly rippled through financial markets. The S&P 500, which includes major U.S. companies, has come under pressure from geopolitical and trade uncertainty. The industrial and consumer discretionary sectors are leading the declines, while interest in more defensive sectors is growing.
The Nasdaq 100, dominated by tech companies with global supply chains, is also showing signs of fatigue. Apple and Nvidia have corrected in recent sessions, driven by concerns over potential retaliation from Beijing and delays in critical components. Semiconductor companies like Qualcomm and AMD could also suffer if China restricts access to critical raw materials or imposes new trade barriers.
Technical Analysis: S&P 500
The current chart formation reflects the drop that followed the imposition of tariffs, followed by a partial recovery to the 5,670-point area — slightly above the current point of control. The index is currently at the upper end of a range in which it has fluctuated several times. The RSI is slightly overbought, and the next upward target could be a return to all-time highs if it breaks the 5,900-point barrier. Moving averages appear to be converging toward a possible bullish directional shift.
Outlook
As 2025 progresses, investors are facing an extremely uncertain environment. The possibility of an escalation in the trade war, combined with ongoing logistical disruptions, could cap global growth and squeeze corporate earnings. All of this comes at a time when GDP growth in the U.S. and China was already showing signs of slowing: the former affected by persistent inflation, and the latter by weak domestic demand and a 21% drop in exports to the U.S.
In short, international trade stands at a crossroads. If the situation does not improve in the coming months, we may witness a major restructuring of global supply chains and a shift of capital toward safer assets.
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All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Up-a-Bar, Down-a-Bar? Sorted.Gap Higher Into 5700 Heat
Ever make a tiny tweak to your bias, ignore the noise, and then watch the market validate every inch of it?
That’s the vibe this morning.
Yesterday’s post-FOMC tag of the lower Bollinger Band confirmed the mechanical turn, and if you’ve been following along, that means our bullish bias got an official upgrade. Futures are already up 60 points overnight, price is lifting into the 5700 zone, and yes… that broken wing butterfly we placed in the slop is now basking in the spotlight.
Didn’t catch the full breakdown of that clean +98.1% ROC win? You should. Because boring trades print – and this one did just that.
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SPX Market View
Let’s talk about the move we didn’t miss.
We spotted the sideways chop. The indecision. The textbook “up-a-bar, down-a-bar” noise. But instead of guessing direction into FOMC chaos, we made a minor but vital adjustment:
Bullish above 5600. Stay mechanical. Stay patient.
That call aged well.
FOMC came and went with all the urgency of a soggy biscuit. The lower Bollinger Band tag arrived right on cue, and with overnight futures up strong, we’re sitting in validation territory.
Now today? 5700 becomes the zone of truth.
It’s the GEX cluster.
It’s the high of the week. (so far)
It’s where a gap-and-go or gap-and-fade could unfold.
If price breaks clean, we could see new highs forming into the weekend. If not, expect a choppy pullback from the open before things stabilise.
Either way…
Already in swings. Already got B&B on. No need to chase.
Let the market come to us.
This is why structure wins.
Expert Insights:
Flipping bias mid-chop – let price confirm. Don’t front-run.
Forcing entries post-gap – wait for structure, not speed.
Ignoring prior levels – 5700 is loaded. Watch for traps.
Missing the post-review edge – yesterday’s trade gives today’s confidence.
Chasing noise into FOMC hangovers – let the dust settle before committing.
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Rumour Has It…
Apparently, the Fed’s post-FOMC statement was originally just a shrug emoji and the word “meh” repeated 17 times. When asked to elaborate, the AI bot in charge blinked twice and played a jazz loop. Traders remain unsure if it was dovish or just tired.
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
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Fun Fact
In 1983, the S&P 500 posted its largest one-day post-Fed reversal at the time, rallying over 3% after a morning selloff – all while inflation was double digits and headlines screamed chaos.
The takeaway? News means nothing if your setup is clean and your risk is defined. The same edge applies today.