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US 500 - Rolling Future (Per 1.0)US 500 - Rolling Future (Per 1.0)US 500 - Rolling Future (Per 1.0)

US 500 - Rolling Future (Per 1.0)

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US500FU trade ideas

Super-cycle top in? I was considering that we had an extended wave 1 from march 2009 to feb 2020, the wave 2 bottom was march 2020, then wave 3 top was jan 2022, wave 4 bottom was oct 2022 and now we are on wave 5. This would be an extended wave 1 instead of wave 3 and that means wave 3 & 5 should be equal and with the current top that would put them within 1.1% of each other. This also fits with the alternating pattern with wave 2 being quick and simple and wave 4 being long and complex. Thoughts?
SP:SPXShort
by Sir_prized
1
S&P500: Vanna Snapback is Over – Short Gamma Drift Underway Belo📝 Summary Short gamma regime re-entered after 20Y auction shock. Below 5870, dealers face structural sell pressure from vanna + gamma + charm convergence. Wait for VIX to fall before buying any dip. 📊 Price Levels to Watch 🔺 Upside Breakout Trigger: 5885 → Reclaiming this level flips dealers back toward neutral gamma, opening short-covering squeeze potential toward 5925–5950 🔻 Downside Acceleration Zone: 5870 → Structural pressure zone. Vanna-driven delta hedging intensifies. Below here, the market enters a volatility expansion regime 🧱 Gamma Walls: Call Wall: 5950 Put Walls: 5875 / 5850 / 5800 🔍 Structural Regime Analysis Macro trigger: Last night’s 20Y Treasury auction was weak, triggering a sharp risk-off move. SPX broke 5935 → 5875 in 15 mins, entering short gamma zone (GEX 🔴🔴). Volatility Regime Shift: VIX spiked >20, breaking the downward vol trend that supported recent vanna snapback rallies. This marks the end of volatility compression. Vol expansion regime is in effect. Dealer Hedging Mechanics: Below 5870, Vanna pressure increases sharply as price declines + IV rises. Dealers short puts must delta hedge by selling ES, amplifying downside in a feedback loop. No Dip Buy Until Vol Stabilizes: VIX must fall or implied volatility flatten before any long bias resumes. Until then, treat rebounds as short entries, not long setups. ⚠️ Volatility Metrics Supporting This View GEX: 🔴🔴 (Negative Gamma on both 0DTE and aggregate expiries) IVx 5D Change: +4.04% → Implied volatility rising into the drop PUT$: 85.6% → Option flow heavily defensive (puts > calls) Skew: High, supporting demand for tail risk hedging 🧭 Tactical Strategy Short bias below 5870, scale-in entries on failed intraday bounce attempts First targets: 5850 → 5800 (Put gamma cluster + dealer momentum zone) Invalidate short above 5885 (where short gamma neutralizes) 📌 Final Note We are now inside a third-order Greeks-driven sell zone: Speed ↑, Color ↑, Ultima ↑ → this is a self-reinforcing volatility trap. No long setups are valid until structural vol metrics cool down.
CBOE:SPXShort
by mithril174
2
Wick Tricks at Highs Based on conventional wisdom the SPX monthly chart looks super bullish with the big wick. I want to explain how this can be misleading. For some "Creds" on the idea, I've attached a post made at almost exactly the low where I forecast the wick and spikes while stating this could be inside of a bearish setup. In the bearish setup, we'd often get bad news around this price. These candles can be bullish, of course - I don't think I need to insult your intelligence by explaining the bullish read on these candles. You know them. But did you know you also see one of these in almost every major top in history? I just posted almost every notable drop from 2008 to 1966. Here's a recent one. I could go and start posting examples from the 1910s, but I hope I've made my point. If it's a wick trap at a top, we generally will see a capitulation month within 3 months. Usually, it'd be next month with this month closing weak to make a wick on top.
SP:SPXShort
by holeyprofit
1
Plan for Full Support Failure We did really well today with lotto puts, hitting over 2,000% on the OTMs taking near the high of the day betting on new lows - but I want to start this post by stating nothing significant happened for bears today. I've been explaining recently how this sort of reaction to the level we were at would be most common. There are times when the low is made now. As I write this, we trade on support. In a 2021-esk move, we'd be at the low. In the statistically most common SPX move, we'd be in the first break the 5500. In the doom move, we'd be entering into a consistent downtrend that would have shallow bounces, a bigger trappier bounce around 5700 and then enter into a period of serious outright capitulation. The type of action almost never seen in indices. I believe contingent on the preceding action hitting this would be a highly probable event on the break. If we're in a big bear move then it HAS TO BE the case that the first drop was a leg one of Elliot downtrend or a leg A of a correction. This leg would have to be either the C leg or the 3 leg. Both of those would be capitulation events - and be headline making crashes. Like mainstream news sort of deals. These moves would be characterised by consistent and strong selling. Only shallow bounces. If these things are not happening, then it's not a good idea to be a bear. If these things are happening, trying to buy the dip might get you nailed. I'll tell you here and now, if the bear break thesis is correct - lots of people will end up margin called. They will buy the dip and then think they can average out of it buying more and there will not be deep enough rallies to accommodate this. They'll progressively pick up bigger and bigger positions. Hope and feel it's all over on the first major bounce and then the worst part of the trend will come. If the sell off is strong, people should respect the risk of it. To end on an optimistic note - if we make a low somewhere in the area we traded today that is almost always bullish. I'd certainly be bull bias to a new high and if we break the classic spike out risk I'd be ultra bullish. I strongly believe the trend for the following couple years will be set in this area. I think that's been foreseeable for years. If the downside risk can be overcome - I think the easy bull markets that followed would surpass the ones we've seen. Or this could become the worse sell off you've seen in SPX. It's not a time to be overly cocky. Protect risk and be ready to benefit from any outcome. Big money is likely to be available within the next 9 months. Next 3 if it's a bear thing.
SP:SPXShort
by holeyprofit
Spx500usd up? 1min chart at 23h London time?As it is , all I hope is that spx 500usd starts here at that blue line, after all, if it starts at the blue line the stock as might be up again, I'm not into the fundamentals by this time, I'm just making some Elliot and indicators-some mine, others don't, and trend analysis Hope u guys all in profit After all we all looking for the same Keep Ur trades safe And Do Always Your Own Research DAYOR Keep it safe This my my graph at 1min candles, returned to 15min chart Keep it safe. And keep cool.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Carlosdrcunha
SPY pull back startAs we can see, it appears that today marked the beginning of a pullback, with the price breaking below the trendline and dropping by 1.20%. Interestingly, the price has now reached the 10 EMA, which often acts as dynamic support. From here, we need to remain patient — either waiting for a bullish reaction at this level or allowing the price to continue pulling back to a deeper point of interest (POI). Based on how the market reacts at each POI, we can then begin to take action on the trades from our watchlist.
ICMARKETS:US500
by GonzooTrading
SPX500 | Macro-Fib Confluence Levels + Risk Roadmap🕰️ Daily Chart | May 21, 2025 🏢 Posted by: Wavervanir_International_LLC After a sharp retracement and subsequent rally, the S&P 500 Index ( FOREXCOM:SPX500 ) is now facing overhead resistance near the 0.886 Fib retracement (~5,875-5,953) from the previous swing high. 🔍 Technical Overview: Confluence Resistance: 5,875–5,953 zone (0.886 Fib) Micro W-Pattern Setup: Pullback expected to 5,640–5,700 before a potential higher low sets up a breakout. Bull Targets: 6,182 (1.236 Fib ext) 6,512 (1.618 Fib ext, potential exhaustion zone) 🧠 Macro + Volatility Context: Monetary Policy: Fed remains data-dependent. July rate cut odds are increasing, but the market remains bifurcated between sticky services inflation and weakening real GDP prints. Bond Market: Yield curve remains inverted. A breakout above 6,182 will likely need bond volatility (MOVE index) to stabilize under 100. Global Flow Risks: Continued capital inflows into U.S. equities amid geopolitical hedging, but China liquidity injections and BOJ FX defense add noise. 🛡️ Risk Management Notes: Pullback Zone: 5,640–5,700 = high-conviction buy zone (0.5–0.618 retracement of last impulse) Invalidation: Daily close below 5,573 or breach of 5,475 = reassess long thesis. Position Sizing: Favor partial scaling-in with tight trailing stop until breakout confirmation. 📌 Strategy Summary: We are watching for a tactical pullback into the golden zone followed by a measured continuation toward 6,182+ if macro tailwinds align (i.e., dovish Fed tone + improving liquidity metrics). The setup mirrors late-cycle rallies and should be monitored alongside bond yields and dollar strength. ⚠️ Patience > Chase. Let the W structure play out. — 🔗 #SPX500 #Fibonacci #MacroTrading #Wavervanir #SMC #RiskManagement #TradingViewAnalysis
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
S&P500: First Trade War indicates that ATH comes soon.S&P500 is a very healthy bullish levels on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 65.213, MACD = 111.000, ADX = 49.249), being considerably over its 1D MA200, with the 1D RSI very close to the overbought zone. This resembles the first Trade War in 2018, when once the 1D MA200 was crossed, it became a Support level and extended the rally to the index Highs and the R1. We remain bullish on SPX with TP = 6,150. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by InvestingScope
$SPX Weekly – 2025 Trendline Bounce Confirmed Again📈 The S&P 500 ( VANTAGE:SP500 ) just bounced cleanly off the long-term trendline that has defined this bull market since the COVID low in 2020. 🟢 Touchpoints: March 2020 🦠 June 2022 (inflation bottom) October 2023 (Fed pause) Now again in 2025 That’s four successful tests in five years. Price action suggests that this trendline remains the key support for bulls — as long as it holds, the trend remains intact. But if it breaks in the future… buckle up.
VANTAGE:SP500
by SmartSignalss
Is a Range Forming?The S&P 500 has enjoyed a powerful rally in the last month, and now some traders may anticipate a sideways move. The first pattern on today’s chart is 5,971, the final weekly close of 2024. The index chopped on either side of that level a few times in January and early February. It stalled there in late February and early March as tariffs were confirmed on Mexico and Canada. SPX peaked just three points below that price on Monday before halting. Is the old resistance still in effect? Second, SPX made a lower low and a higher high that session. Tuesday was just the opposite. That combination of an outside candle, followed by an inside candle, may suggest a change of direction is coming. Third, Wilder’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned down after nearing an overbought condition. If a pullback occurs, traders may eye roughly 5,773 as support. That was the low in January and a high in late March. Next, prices are historically far above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). However, the SMA is turning upward. That could suggest the intermediate-term trend has grown more positive, which may keep pullbacks shallow. Finally, few important events appear to be scheduled before next Wednesday. (Minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting and Nvidia earnings are both due then.) That lack of catalysts may also create drift – especially with a long holiday weekend approaching. Check out TradingView's The Leap competition sponsored by TradeStation. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
SP:SPX
by TradeStation
S&P500 Same recovery path with 2020 and 2009The S&P500 index (SPX) has recovered almost 90% of its losses since the February 19 2025 All Time High (ATH) and many have already started calling for a technical correction. If we compare however this 2025 Tariff fueled correction with the recent most aggressive ones (COVID crash in 2020 and Housing Crisis 2008/2009) we see a different picture. On their respective 0.9 Fibonacci levels (close to which we are today), both of those market recoveries went straight to new ATHs, without testing their MA50 (blue trend-line) until the next Cycle peak. They had that tested before when the price was trading near (or on)the 0.618 Fib. Notice also how a MACD Bullish on all three charts, confirmed the aggressive recovery pattern straight after the bottom. Instead of a correction, history shows that we might be looking at new ATH soon. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
05/20/25 Trade Journal, and Where is the Stock Market going tomoEOD accountability report: +293.75 Sleep: 4.5 hours , Overall health: Calm and tired. need to catch up on sleep. What was my initial plan? Market structure was bearish so, I started the day shorting, but once market flipped bullish, I switched to BTD mode. Daily Trade recap based on VX Algo System — 9:00 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! — 10:20 AM VXAlgo NQ X1 Buy Signal — 11:18 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! — 12:30 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! — 1:20 PM VXAlgo NQ X1 Sell Signal — 3:13 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal 2x signal (C+ set up) Next day plan--> Above 5900 = Bullish, if we lose 48min support at 5900--> 5800 next Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
SP:SPX
by WallSt007
The Three Main Things That Happen at 86 Fibs.As some of you may know, I have a bit of an interest in how trend moves have historically formed and failed. I am interested in the subject generally, with me having put a fair amount of time into just understanding the basic timeline of historic events, reading the different studies on market hypothesis' and checking how these perform or fail in the fat tail events, but when it comes to trading I have a few main interests. --How can we approximate what zone a top would generally come if we're topping. --How do we survive being early on that. --How do we know it's wrong and we should flip long. --The typical break/capitulation level for bear trends. --Where we tend to bull trap from. --Styles bull traps and market recoveries. --How markets generally bottom after extreme events. The answer all of those questions is an optimistic endeavour but these are the main things you have to understand to make it viable to be able to bet on the major turning points in these fat tail events and to be able to take exposure without going broke if you get it wrong. Be that trying to buy lows or fade highs. During the last bear move we posted short analysis at the top, throughout and then posted the different possible bull traps while we were at the low. To this point, the general norms of the historic analysis have held up. Now, we're into the 86 fib which has tended to be a critical area for the trend decision. In this piece I'm going to go through the main types of reactions we get here and how one can aim to make a plan that will be profitable in all types of scenarios. Many of the things I'll be discussing are generic retracement rules and if you follow my work you'll know them from my 76/86 theories that I discuss regularly, but all of what I am about to cover here also checks out on the SPX chart. I have manually went through every single drop of over 10% in the SPX and then modelled the different rallies from there. Be them recoveries or crashes - these rules tended to be useful in most of them. Let me start by giving a very brief history of my use of the 76/86 fibs. The original rules I had for this was a reversal should come just a little bit before the 76 fib. I'd buy/sell close to the 76 fib and use a 76 hit as my stop loss. These were great times. It would work a lot and it'd pay over 1:10 RR sometimes when it did. Over time this became a little harder and I had to increase my tolerance zone for spikes above the 76. My rules then became to trade close to the 76 and if the 86 hit then I'd stop out because I think it'll go higher. Most of the time we pullback first, but the 86 hitting I used to class as a failure of the reversal. This worked well (Albeit with reduced RR) for a long time but during the 2022 bear market this theory has significant failures with us tending to trade to the 86 and then put in full reversals. Given my bias is trade the reversal on the 76 and expect continuation if the 86 hits, this was a problem. My default rules would pick up losing signals on both sides. So I had make some further amendments to the idea in 2022. I've used the general idea for about a decade in total now, with some minor adjustments along the way. This framing is important because the general default rule I'd have here is now we 86 has hit we probably pullback a bit but it's a net bull bias- however, that strategy has weakened and I have to be a bit more agnostic now. Before, by this point I only have bull plans and ideas of how to stop out if I am wrong. With the new tendency for 86 hits, I need a bear plan also. First we'll deal with the outcome that I find happens least often, the clean 86 break. I hate this move. Be it on the upside or the downside I always find it easer to make money when something happens at the 86. I don't even care what. When it trends through I don't expect it because it only happens about 20% of the time and I can end up in a tricky situation where the market jumps from one resistance level to the next and I never want to buy and generally am bias towards fading the move - which can go really bad if the reversal thesis is wrong. When this clean break is made it's usually built in a trending way. Higher lows in an uptrend. I've found the best way to deal with this risk is if there's any credible risk of the 86 breaking I start to buy all the dips when they're at deep retracement levels. What I "Think" will happen doesn't matter. I know if we head into the type of break I dislike I'll do poorly if I do not start to fade the 86 early. I'd rather lose one or two small trades trying this than end up in a situation where I find it hard to know what to do for months. If we get back above the 86, this is the plan. Just buy all the dips until it fails. If it fails early I'll probably lose 2-3% over a few trades. If one trade works and I lose after I'll end up even. If they all work I'll end up with over 30% for my 3% risk. Although I do not "Think" this move is likely, when you can risk 3% to make 30% and cover yourself from the things that are tough to deal with - that's a good deal. The most typical result in SPX history (and in general 86 theory) is we make a crash like move off it but this only goes to the 50 fib. Very common. You'll find this in SPX recoveries from as early as 1920. Obvious ones after the 2008 crash etc. This is a net super bullish setup but we'd be in for a drop of about 10% first. It's the most common outcome and if it was not for the need to edit rules due to stop hunting this would be the only main plan I had right now. The plan would be to trade this and everything else would be planning how to not lose too much if something else happened. If the 5o fib breaks, we tend to capitulate to the 23 fib. From here is a bit of a tricky spot because a lot of different types of things can happen but inside the context of the overall move we have, this could foreshadow a massive break. If and when we get there I'll discuss more about the tactical trading decisions one can make in this area. I think for the bear thesis to have a chance we need to the monthly candle to close with a wick on the top. A drop of several 100 points into the end of the month. Giving the size and speed I'd expect this move to be, it'd almost certainly be a news related move. If that marker hits, then we'll discuss the decisions to be made into the support levels. If we uptrend above the 86, then it's buy all dips until it stops working, review after. But one thing is for sure, this is historically the riskiest spot to be short term bullish. Even in a bull setup, you're wrong 3/4 times on long entries here. In a bear setup, things get really nasty. Bulls should be super careful if the 86 can not break. Bears should be careful if it does. The historical analysis clearly shows if you make mistakes here on either side you can take crippling losses. No one should be overconfident at these prices (most people are though). The bears have the edge for the next 10% under the 86 but if they are wrong there are so many different ways it can end up terribly. Bulls are at the point where they should be most careful, but as it generally is - this is when they feel bulletproof. Interesting spot. For my part, I plan for everything and trade what happens. Being profitable is more important than making bold and clever predictions if you do this for a living.
SP:SPX
by holeyprofit
Temporary euphoria fades, a sharp correction is likelyThe current index surge appears increasingly disconnected from core fundamentals. Markets have been brushing aside key economic data, rallying instead on short-term sentiment and speculative flows. ⚠️ Once this temporary momentum fades, I expect a pullback to 4800, with a possible extension toward 3900 if macro headwinds intensify. This setup reflects a growing divergence between price action and economic reality—something that rarely lasts.
IG:SPTRD.USD.250.IFDShort
by DonsTrading1M
If We Break Here, Trend Decision is Likely Around 5500.I've recently posted various different bullish considerations for breakouts because given the macro context of where we are, if these are made they could be extremely strong. However, at the exact moment in time we're still trading right at a major resistance level. We trade at the 86 fib. Historically, SPX pulls back from here about 80% of the time. Usually a correction, some have become crashes. If we uptrend above the 86 - this is extremely bullish bias and the plan is buy all dips betting on the local trend structure to hold. Getting out as soon as there's not flawless higher lows on the dumps. We have traded a tiny bit above the 86 recently but if we do not break it again then the chances of a 10% drop are strong. At this point SPX could easily drop to around 5900 in the bullish move. That'd be expected at this point I'd say. Part of a simple trend development- but if the 5900 level breaks, then we're likely heading down close to 5500. The 5500 forecast is the bullish forecast. In the event of us seeing this month closing down with a big wick candle above it and then us making a bear break - next month could be a huge bearish engulfing candle. We really are at a very interesting spot. Sized up on various different types of bear bets here at 5940. If we continue to see local uptrend I plan to buy all dips and trail stops and hopefully this could build into what may become a sensational breakout. But if supports start to fail - I do not think this is going to be a drop to be buying. I'll be extremely bear bias on the breaking of 5870 or so = and in terms of the RR on the move, the bear bet now is optimal. Big decisions to be made in this area. We must be close to them.
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by holeyprofit