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USA500 trade ideas

S&P500 Do you really want to bet against the market??We have done a number of multi-decade analyses on both S&P500 (SPX) and Dow Jones over the years. Especially in times of high volatility, such as the current ones amidst the tariff wars, the long-term macro-economic analysis always helps to keep the most objective perspective. And as you see in the wide picture of SPX's 35-year Cycles, the current 3-month correction is nothing but a technical pull-back that justifies the rule. The 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) tends to be the main Support during the Bull Phase and then it breaks, the Bear Cycle starts that drops even below the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line). Right now, assuming the current Cycle that started after the early 2009 Housing Crisis bottom, will be as long as the previous one at least, we are headed for the 0.5 Time Fibonacci level (blue) and are marginally above the 0.382 Horizontal Fibonacci level (black). This is the exact kind of behavior we had on the previous Cycle with the 1990 pull-back, which as expected approached the 1M MA50 and rebounded. In 1954, the index was again headed for the 0.5 Time Fib and was on the 0.382 Horizontal Fib. It is obvious that the degree of symmetry among the Cycles is remarkable and as long as the 1M MA50 holds, any pull-back should historically be bought. As we head towards the 0.786 Time Fib though, the danger of staying in the market gets extremely high but as mentioned, a break below the 1M MA50 is the confirmed sell signal. This shows that despite the recent volatility, buying is still heavily favored. Are you willing to bet against the market at this stage? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
19
US500 - Are Bulls Setting Up for a Bullish Push?Overview of Market Structure The US500 has been trading in a well-defined bearish channel for an extended period, continuously making lower highs and lower lows. This downtrend was respected until recently, when the price broke out of its bearish structure, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment. Following the breakout, price also breached a key resistance level (marked in red), which had previously acted as a significant supply zone. Now that this resistance has been broken, it may flip into a support level, offering a high-probability area for a bullish continuation. I expect price to retest this newly-formed support zone before continuing its move upward, targeting the unfilled imbalance zone above (highlighted in green). Breakout of the Bearish Structure One of the most important aspects of this setup is the confirmed breakout of the bearish structure. The market was respecting a descending channel, creating lower highs and lower lows. However, with this breakout, price is no longer following the previous downtrend pattern. A breakout like this often leads to a shift in market direction, meaning buyers are now in control, and the next likely move is bullish continuation. Resistance Break & Potential Support Retest The red zone represents a major resistance level that has now been broken. This area had previously rejected price multiple times, showing that sellers were strongly defending it. Now that price has successfully closed above this level, we can anticipate a retest of this area as new support before price resumes its move higher. This is a classic example of a resistance-turned-support flip, a key concept in technical analysis. Imbalance Zones & Price Efficiency An important part of this trade setup is the unfilled imbalance zone above. When price moves too quickly in one direction, it often creates gaps or inefficiencies in the market, which tend to get revisited later. The unfilled imbalance zone above (highlighted in green) is a key target for this bullish move. Price is likely to fill this inefficiency after confirming support at the previous resistance level. Since price action tends to seek out liquidity and inefficiencies, this gives us a clear roadmap for the next likely movement in the market. Why This Trade Has High Probability Breakout of Bearish Structure – This suggests a potential shift from a downtrend to an uptrend. Resistance Turned Support – A classic market structure retest that provides strong confluence for a bullish move. Imbalance Fill – The market tends to fill inefficiencies left in impulsive moves, making the imbalance zone above a logical target. Liquidity Grab Potential – Retesting the broken resistance could serve as a liquidity grab before price moves higher. Conclusion This setup provides a high-probability long opportunity based on a bearish structure breakout, resistance-turned-support retest, and imbalance fill target. If price follows the expected path, we should see a retest of the red zone before a bullish continuation into the imbalance zone above. By patiently waiting for price confirmation at key levels, this trade offers a strong risk-to-reward ratio while aligning with smart money concepts and price efficiency principles. __________________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀 Make sure to follow me for more price action insights, free indicators, and trading strategies. Let’s grow and trade smarter together! 📈
FPMARKETS:US500Long
by TehThomas
27
Vanguard - “We are the invisible hand of Adam Smith” John BogleIf anyone ever thought of erecting a monument to the person who did the most for American investors — the choice would fall on John Bogle. These words are not from a promotional brochure but a quote from Warren Buffett himself. Book summary But most people don’t even know who Bogle is. And certainly don’t realize that he didn’t just “create index funds.” He built an invulnerable power machine disguised as client care. 📈 From a thesis to $10 trillion under management Bogle’s story begins with an ordinary guy born during the Great Depression. Through poverty, scholarship-based education, and working from age 10 — he makes his way into Princeton, where he writes a thesis on a topic that would change the industry: "mutual funds." Over the years, his philosophy turned into what we now know as "passive investing." From day one, the Vanguard he created operated on the principle: "maximum benefit to the investor, minimum — to the managers." No fees, no speculation, no marketing. And it worked. But here’s the paradox: ▶ Vanguard gave up profit for the mission. ▶ The world responded — investors were tired of the noise. ▶ As a result — "Vanguard grew into a monster capable of managing the economies of entire nations." 🧠 A revolutionary idea: a fund owned by investors Bogle built a structure where "the fund owners are the investors themselves." Sounds beautiful: no shareholders, no profit pressure — only long-term client interests. But then who de facto manages these trillions? ⚠️ Vanguard is not a public company. ⚠️ Its shares are not traded. ⚠️ The real ownership mechanism — a black box. It’s the perfect system for... "invisible control." And this isn’t a conspiracy theory, but logic: If you can’t find the ultimate beneficiary — it means they’re either too big, or hiding for a reason. 🕸️ The “Big Three” and the invisible hand effect Vanguard, BlackRock, and State Street — three funds that hold between 3% to 8% of shares in most of the world’s largest corporations. It seems small, but only 15–20% of shares are in free float. ❗ This gives the Big Three “real power”: from voting at meetings to influencing media narratives and climate policy. 📌 They own stakes in CNN, Fox, and Disney. 📌 Invest in oil companies that violate human rights. 📌 And at the same time — push the “green transition” agenda. Conflict of interest? No. It’s “total control over both sides of the conflict.” 🤫 Why Vanguard is impossible to destroy If you think Vanguard is just an investment fund, here are a few facts: 🔒 No company shares → can’t buy a controlling stake. 🔒 Over 400 legal entities → can’t file a single lawsuit. 🔒 Every investor essentially becomes a “co-owner” → responsibility is blurred. 🔒 All stakes split below 10% → bypass antitrust laws. You can’t sue a ghost. You can’t attack a network if you don’t know where its center is. 🧭 What’s next? Today, Vanguard manages over $10 trillion, which is more than the GDP of Germany, India, and Brazil combined. Though the fund’s founder passed away as “the conscience of Wall Street,” his creation became an "architecture of global control" that even the U.S. Federal Reserve couldn’t handle. 🎤 “We are the invisible hand of Adam Smith,” John Bogle once said. A more detailed book review will follow below. I understand how important this is in our time and I appreciate it. 📘 General Concept of the Book: The book is at once the autobiography of John Bogle, the story of the founding and development of Vanguard, and a manifesto of index investing philosophy. A runaway waiter, Princeton graduate, and "Wall Street rebel," Bogle creates Vanguard — a company that changed the investment world by making it more fair and accessible. 📑 Structure of the Book: The book is divided into four parts: Part I — The History of Vanguard. Part II — The Evolution of Key Funds. Part III — The Future of Investment Management. Part IV — Personal Reflections, Philosophy, and Values of the Author. 💡 Key Ideas of the Book (Introductory Chapters, Preface): - Index investing is the most important financial innovation of the 20th century. - Passive management beats active managers in returns and costs. - Vanguard’s mission is not to make money off investors, but to serve them. - Criticism of Wall Street: high fees, conflicts of interest, short-term thinking. - Financial revolution — a mass shift of investors from active to index funds. 🧠 Bogle's Values: - Long-term thinking. Don’t give in to market “noise.” - Honesty and transparency in investing. - Minimal costs = maximum return for the investor. - Fiduciary duty: protecting the client’s interest comes first. 📗 Part I: The History of Vanguard 🔹 Chapter 1: 1974 — The Prophecy Context: John Bogle is in a difficult position — he’s fired as head of Wellington Management Company. During a trip to Los Angeles, he meets John Lovelace of American Funds, who warns: if you create a truly mutual investment company, you’ll destroy the industry. Main Idea: ⚡ Bogle decides to go against the profit-driven industry and creates Vanguard — a company owned by investors, not managers. Key Moments: - Vanguard is founded in 1974 — in the middle of a crisis. - The company has no external shareholders — all “profits” are returned to investors through lower fees. - In 1975, the first index fund for individual investors is launched — a revolutionary idea, initially ridiculed as “Bogle’s madness.” Important Quotes: "Gross return before costs is market return. Net return after costs is lower. Therefore, to get the maximum, you must minimize costs." – Bogle’s fundamental rule 🔹 Chapter 2: 1945–1965 — Background: Blair Academy, Princeton, Fortune, and Wellington Early Life: Bogle studies at Blair Academy on a scholarship, works as a waiter. He enters Princeton. Struggles with his economics course, but… In the library, he accidentally finds the Fortune article “Big Money in Boston” — about mutual funds. Turning Point: This article inspires Bogle to write his thesis: “The Economic Role of the Investment Company”, where he argues: - Funds should work for investors; - Don’t expect them to beat the market; - Costs must be minimized; - Fund structure must be fair and transparent. Career Start: Work at Wellington Management (Philadelphia). Starts from scratch, rising from junior analyst to president of the company. Under Walter Morgan’s leadership, he learns the principles of discipline and serving investors. ✍️ Interim Summary What’s important from these early chapters: - Vanguard was born from the ruins of Bogle’s former career — an example of how failure can be the beginning of greatness. - Already in college, Bogle saw the issue of conflicts of interest in the industry. - His philosophy is idealism in action: don’t play guessing games — just invest in the market and reduce costs. 📘 Chapter 3: 1965–1974 — Rise and Fall 🚀 Appointed President of Wellington Management: In 1965, at just 35 years old, John Bogle becomes president of Wellington. He decides to modernize the business and bring in young star managers from Wall Street, especially from the firm Thorndike, Doran, Paine & Lewis. ⚠️ Risky Alliance: Bogle makes a fatal mistake — he merges with the new management company without ensuring value alignment. The new partners are focused on profit and short-term gains, not building a strong long-term foundation. This leads to internal conflict, loss of trust, and poor fund performance. 💥 Dismissal: In 1974, after a series of conflicts, the board removes Bogle. He loses control of the company he built for nearly 25 years. Bogle’s comment: "I was fired, but I was still chairman of the Wellington mutual funds — and that turned out to be a lifeline." 📘 Chapter 4: 1974–1975 — The Birth of Vanguard 🧩 A Unique Legal Loophole: Though Bogle was fired from the management company, he remained head of the Wellington Fund trustees — giving him the opportunity to build a new independent structure. 🛠 Creating Vanguard: In December 1974, he launches The Vanguard Group — a company owned by the investors (shareholders) themselves. Model: the fund belongs to the investors → the fund owns the management company → no outside profit, only cost recovery. ⚙️ "Vanguard" as a Symbol: The name was inspired by Admiral Horatio Nelson’s ship — HMS Vanguard. A symbol of leadership, courage, and moving against the tide. Key Idea: Vanguard would be the only truly mutual investment organization — a model where clients = owners. 📘 Chapter 5: 1975 — The First Index Fund 🤯 Revolution: The Indexing Approach Bogle decides to create the first index mutual fund for retail investors. Name: First Index Investment Trust (later — Vanguard 500 Index Fund). Idea: invest in all S&P 500 stocks to reflect the market’s return instead of trying to beat it. 🪓 A Blow to the Industry: The financial world reacts harshly: - “Bogle’s madness”; - “This is a failure”; - “Who would want to just match the market?” 🔧 Humble Beginning: The goal was to raise $150 million, but only $11 million was collected — tiny by industry standards. But Bogle didn’t give up: "It was a small step, but with a powerful message." 💡 Summary of Chapters 3–5: How Vanguard Was Built 🔑 Event 💬 Meaning Loss of control at Wellington ----- Collapse of the old model, beginning of a new path Creation of Vanguard------------- Innovative, investor-first structure Launch of index fund--------------Start of the indexing revolution, Bogle’s core philosophy 📝 Quotes for Thought: "All I did was apply common sense. I just said: Let’s leave the returns to the investors, not the managers." — John Bogle "This is a business where you get what you don’t pay for. Lower costs = better results." — Bogle’s favorite saying, debunking “more is better” 📘 Chapter 6: 1976–1981 — The Survival Period ⏳ Tough Start: After launching the index fund, Vanguard faces slow growth and constant skepticism. For 83 straight months (nearly 7 years!), Vanguard sees net outflows — investors are hesitant to trust this new model. 🧱 Laying the Foundation: Bogle and his team focus on: - Transparency - Lowering costs - Investor education (they explain what it means to “stay the course”) 💬 The Core Dilemma: "All investors want to beat the market. But no one wants to pay the price: high fees, taxes, risks. We offered an alternative — reliability, simplicity, and low cost." 📈 Small Wins: Despite modest volume, Vanguard starts building a reputation as an “honest player.” It becomes evident: investors using Vanguard achieve better long-term results than those chasing trendy funds. 📘 Chapter 7: 1982–1991 — Growth and Recognition 💡 The Power of Philosophy: Bogle keeps repeating: “Stay the course” — don’t try to predict the market, don’t fall for fear and greed. This message becomes especially powerful after the 1982 and 1987 market crises. 🏆 The First Fruits: A slow but steady increase in assets begins. Vanguard launches new index funds: - Total Stock Market Index - Bond Index - International Index 📣 Educational Mission: Bogle writes books, articles, gives interviews. He isn’t just running a fund — he’s changing how people think about investing. A community of followers emerges — the Bogleheads. 📊 Key Stats: By 1991, Vanguard's assets reach around $130 billion. Index funds begin receiving positive reviews from analysts, including Morningstar. 📘 Chapter 8: 1991–1999 — Industry Leadership 🚀 Explosive Growth: In the 1990s, index funds go mainstream. Investors realize that most active funds underperform the market — and they vote with their money for Vanguard. 🧰 Expanding the Product Line: Vanguard introduces: - Retirement funds - Bond funds - International and balanced funds - Admiral Shares — low-cost funds for loyal investors 📢 Open Fight with the Industry: Bogle continues to harshly criticize Wall Street: - For greed, manipulation, and lack of transparency - For prioritizing company profit over client interest "The industry hates Vanguard because it proves you can be honest and still succeed." ⚠️ Internal Challenges: In the late 1990s, Bogle’s health declines. He passes leadership to Jack Brennan but retains influence on company strategy. 📊 Midpoint Summary (Chapters 6–8) 📅 Phase 📈 Essence 1976–1981 Quiet survival: building the model, fighting for trust 1982–1991 Slow growth: philosophy attracts investors 1991–1999 Recognition and leadership: indexing becomes dominant 💬 Bogle Quotes from These Chapters: "Investing is not a business. It’s a service. Those who forget this lose everything." "Every dollar spent on fees is a dollar lost to your future." "Volatility is not the enemy. The real enemy is you, if you panic." 📘 Chapter 9: Leadership as a Calling 💡 A Leader ≠ A Manager: Bogle contrasts a true leader with just an efficient executive. A real leader: - Puts others’ interests above their own - Has a moral compass, not just KPIs - Makes hard, unpopular decisions 🛤 His Leadership Style: "Don’t ask others to do what you wouldn’t do yourself." "Always explain why — people follow meaning, not orders." He genuinely believes Vanguard should be more than a successful business — it should be a force for good in the market. "Leadership is loyalty to an idea bigger than yourself." 🔄 Feedback Principle: Bogle constantly interacts with clients, employees, and journalists. He never isolates himself in an “ivory tower” — he believes this openness is a leader’s true strength. 📘 Chapter 10: Client Service — Vanguard’s Mission 🧭 The Mission: "Maximize investor returns — not company profits." Vanguard is built around fiduciary responsibility: every decision must pass the test — is this in the investor’s best interest or not? 🧾 How It’s Implemented: - Fees below market average → investors keep more - No ads for “hot” funds → Vanguard sells stability, not trends - No sales commissions → no one profits off pushing funds to clients - Ethical code — “Don’t do anything you wouldn’t want on the front page of the newspaper.” "We’re not trying to be the best for Wall Street. We’re trying to be the best for you." 📘 Chapter 11: The Market Should Serve Society 📉 Critique of Modern Wall Street: Bogle argues that finance has drifted from its original purpose. Investing has turned into trading. The investor became a cash cow, not a partner. "The market now serves itself — and we’re still paying the price." 🌱 What the System Should Look Like: - Companies should serve society - Investors should be owners, not speculators - Funds should be transparent, accountable, and honest 📢 Call for Reform: Bogle calls for a rethinking of finance: - Restore the human element - Make mission more important than profit - Protect long-term interests of millions of ordinary investors "If we want capitalism with a human face, we must return finance to serving society." 📊 Summary of Chapters 9–11: Bogle's Philosophy 📌 Direction------------💬 Essence Leadership-------------Morality, leading by example, purpose-driven Business---------------First and foremost — service to the client Financial System-------Must work for society, not just for profit of the few ✨ Inspirational Quotes: "The most important thing you can invest is not money — it’s your conscience." "Honesty in business is not a competitive edge. It’s a duty." "I’m not against capitalism. I’m against capitalism without morals." 📘 Chapter 12: The Future of Investing — Where the Industry Is Headed 🌐 Bogle sees three main trends: Victory of Passive Investing: - Index funds continue to displace active management - Their share of assets under management is growing rapidly - More investors are realizing the power of simplicity Fee Pressure: - Fees are approaching zero (some funds are effectively free) - Winners: investors. Losers: traditional management companies The Role of Technology: - Rise of robo-advisors (automated investment advisors) - But Bogle warns: Technology without philosophy is just a tool, not a solution 🚨 Threat #1 — Hyperfinancialization: "The market is turning into a casino. And the fewer the players, the more the house wins." Bogle reminds us: the goal of investing is owning businesses — not gambling. The higher the turnover, the more you lose on fees and taxes. 📘 Chapter 13: The Power of Indexing — Threat or Blessing? 📈 Strength in Scale: The biggest index providers (Vanguard, BlackRock, State Street) own large shares in nearly all companies in the indexes. This raises the issue of concentrated power — is too much influence in too few hands? ⚖️ The Indexing Paradox: Index funds don’t actively vote on corporate governance issues. So the more power they hold, the less oversight there is over company management. 📣 Bogle’s Proposals: - Establish a code of conduct for index providers - Require them to vote in investors’ interests - Mandate transparency in how they use their voting power "We fought for the democratization of investing. We cannot let it end in a new monarchy." 📘 Chapter 14: Personal Reflections — On Life, Mission, and Faith 🧬 Personal and Eternal: Bogle shares his core life principles: - To serve, not to own - To leave a mark, not accumulate - To do what’s right, not what’s profitable He talks about his battle with heart disease — both as a personal journey and a metaphor for resisting the system. 🙏 Gratitude: He dedicates the book to his family, colleagues, and investors. Emphasizes: every day is a chance to be useful. "I created Vanguard, but Vanguard created me. My career isn’t a triumph — it’s a thank you to fate for the chance to be heard." 📊 Summary of Chapters 12–14: Looking Ahead and Within 📌 Theme-----------------💬 Essence Future of Investing---------Indexing is the new standard, but needs responsible stewardship Concentration of Power----Index giants must be accountable to society Personal Legacy-----------Life is about service, honesty, and setting an example 💬 Final Inspirational Quotes: "Life isn’t about making more money. It’s about doing more good." "One day, someone will say: ‘Bogle was stubborn. He never compromised his conscience.’ That will be the best reward." 🧩 Bogle’s Principle Summary (from the book): - Lower costs — pay less = keep more - Don’t chase returns — be realistic - Be a long-term investor — ignore market noise - Invest broadly, passively, regularly - Don’t try to beat the market — own the market - Focus on goals, not trends - Finance = service. Not a business for profit 💡 Investment Philosophy 🟨 “This is a business where you get what you don’t pay for.” 🟨 “Don’t try to beat the market. Just own it.” 🟨 “In the stock market, investors are rewarded for patience and punished for frenzy.” 🟨 “Gross return minus costs = market return. After costs — less. So: reduce costs — and you win.” 🟨 “The problem isn’t that investors know too little. The problem is they know too much of what doesn’t matter.” 🧭 Principles & Morality 🟩 “Investing is not a business. It’s a service.” 🟩 “Honesty isn’t a strategy. It’s an obligation.” 🟩 “The goal of Vanguard isn’t to make more, but to return to the investor what’s rightfully theirs.” 🟩 “If your investments keep you up at night, change them. Or better — change yourself.” 🧠 On Leadership and Mission 🔷 “A leader isn’t the one in front. It’s the one responsible for the rest.” 🔷 “Respect isn’t bought. It’s earned when you do what’s right, even if it’s unpopular.” 🔷 “We didn’t build Vanguard for glory. We built it to leave something better than what was.” 💬 On the Market and Industry 🔴 “Today's stock market isn’t a place for investors. It’s a casino with a shiny sign.” 🔴 “We’re not against capital. We’re against capitalism without a conscience.” 🔴 “The people selling investments always say they can pick the best. But what if the best is just paying less?” ❤️ On Life and Legacy 💠 “I created Vanguard, but Vanguard created me. It’s not my victory — it’s gratitude for the chance to serve.” 💠 “Every day is a chance to do something not for yourself.” 💠 “You can measure success with money. Or with a conscience, you don’t have to justify.” It was a lot of work! Click to like + Write in the comments your favorite books about the financial market Best regards, EXCAVO _____________________ Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:US500Education
by EXCAVO
8
S&P500 This is the buy opportunity of the year for a 7000 TargetThe S&P500 index (SPX) is in the process of posting its 2nd straight green 1W candle, following a streak of 4 red weeks since the February 17 peak. That streaκ was technically the Bearish Leg of the 1.5-year Channel Up and as you can see, it made a direct contact with its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line). As the same time, the 1W RSI almost touched the 40.00 Support that priced the October 23 2023 Low, which was the previous Higher Low of the Channel Up. The similarities don't stop there as both Bearish Legs had approximately a -10.97% decline, the strongest within that time-frame. The Bullish Leg that followed that bottom initially peaked on a +28.85% rise, almost touching the 2.236 Fibonacci extension. Assuming the symmetry holds between the Bullish Legs as well, we can be expecting the index to start the new Bullish Leg now and target 7000 by the end of the year, which is marginally below both the 2.236 Fib ext and a potential +28.85% rise. This may indeed be the best buy opportunity for 2025. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:US500Long
by TradingShot
9
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to resistance area of 5830.Colleagues, the previous forecast is not canceled, but I decided to update it a bit in the form of a new forecast. I have set the target a little closer, so that I don't have to wait too long. I believe that the price will continue its upward movement and will reach the area of 5830. It is quite possible that the price will correct to the area of 5597, completing the wave “2” of small order. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Hellena_Trade
18
S&P500 during TRUMP's 2018 vs 2025 TRADE WAR.The S&P500 index (SPX) has started off the year in disappointing fashion as since mid-February the market has corrected by over -10% and of course almost all of it is attributed to the trade tariffs imposed by President Trump. As you know, this is not the first time Trump goes into a Trade War. The 1st has started in January 2018 when the first tariff announcements were made against China. We can say that Trump's 2nd Trade War officially started on March 03 2025, with tariff implementations against Mexico, Canada and China. As you can see, the build up to both Trade Wars has been identical both in structural price count and in 1W RSI terms. By the week of February 05 2018, the index has dropped by a little over -11%, hit the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level and rebounded, while the 1W RSI formed a Lower Low. We can claim that this are roughly the levels we are now. That drop started a Megaphone pattern, which ran through all of 2018. The ultimate bottom for this Megaphone Trade War pattern came in December 24 2018 on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). Right now, the 1W RSI is almost on Lower Lows while crossing below its 1W MA50 and what remains to be seen is if it will hit its 0.236 Fib to form the bottom of the Megaphone or will rebound now. Do you think Trump's 2nd Trade War will keep the market highly volatile within a Megaphone or will plunge it even more? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
3
Update about my previous warning about a crash of the SPX500📉 SPX500 Major Correction: Scenario 1 or 2? In my previous analysis, I explained a scenario that could mimic the 2022 crash (Scenario 1): 🔗 However, the price action dropped much faster than in 2022, accelerating the correction. Now, on the daily timeframe, we already have a bullish MACD crossover, signaling a potential bullish trend for several days: 🔗 Could This Invalidate the Bearish Trend? ✅ Yes, absolutely. In June 2023 (Scenario 2), a similar situation occurred: A bearish MACD reset was interrupted mid-course by a violent dump This triggered a strong rebound, breaking through resistance levels There are now strong signs that Scenario 2 might play out again. What Does This Mean for Crypto & TradFi? 📈 If this bullish reversal holds, it could sync Crypto & TradFi, with both gaining bullish momentum on the weekly timeframe, peaking around May 2025. Two Possible Outcomes: 1️⃣ Scenario 1 – The reversal collapses, and the correction continues 📉 2️⃣ Scenario 2 – The reversal holds, leading to a rally 📈 Let’s monitor this closely to see which scenario unfolds. 🔍 DYOR! #SPX500 #StockMarket #Crypto #Trading #BullishReversal #BearishTrend #MACD #MarketAnalysis #Investing
BLACKBULL:US500.F
by CryptoNikkoid
9
Looking for a minimum of ES 5850In the days to come our initial pattern off the recent has the high probability to get into the 5850 area. Here I will be looking for a pullback. If this pullback can be viewed as corrective in it's structure then I expect the subdivisions and pathway on my ES4Hr chart should follow suit. However, if the pullback turns out to be impulsive, I will be looking for follow through for either Minor B having completed early, or the alternate wave (iv). If that sort of price action were to materialize, it's Friday's low of 5651.25 that must support any drop if we're to continue to subdivide higher and have this minor B take more time.
CBOE:SPX
by maikisch
4
S&P500 Short: Expecting Price to Fall back below trendlineFor this idea, there are 2 things to take note: 1. I believe the breakout to the upside to be a false breakout. Thus price should fall back into the channel. 2. The "C" wave is slightly shorter than "A" wave, but it shouldn't matter since corrective wave does not conform to the "3rd wave cannot be the shortest" rule. If you are an active trader, you can choose to place your stop where I indicated. But if you are really more swing trader and can take wider swings, then I recommend putting stop above where the Fibonacci shows 1. Good luck!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by yuchaosng
5
Falling towards pullback support?S&P500 (US500) is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is an overlap resistance. Pivot: 5,405.74 1st Support: 5,176.07 1st Resistance: 5,769.85 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:US500Long
by ICmarkets
2
Falling towards pullback support?S&P500 (US500) is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is an overlap resistance. Pivot: 5,405.74 1st Support: 5,176.07 1st Resistance: 5,769.85 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:US500Long
by ICmarkets
1
$DXY 10% Declines along with $SPX declines from 1987-1995In case you are wondering if the drop in the $USDOL TVC:DXY US Dollar of 10% from a high is a sign of something major going on in the stock market, it reminded me of research I did right when I got out of college in 1987. Here's a quick overview of that pattern of TVC:DXY declines of 10% against the backdrop of SP:SPX or S&P500 Index declines at that time. The 1987 stock market crash is on the far left of this graph and gets the chart started for you to review. The 10% drops from highs in the TVC:DXY index are labeled with yellow arrows and there were 9 of them across this time series from 1987-1995. We can imagine how a Non-US investor would handle both a drop in the TVC:DXY and a drop in the SP:SPX , but a drop of both the TVC:DXY and SP:SPX of 10% together would mean a loss of 20% for the non-US investor. That is a painful loss and perhaps more than investors wanted to risk. Historically, it was a good time to look for a stock market bottom AFTER a drop in the TVC:DXY index and the green boxes at the top show the risk of a deeper decline in the SP:SPX was minimal after this scenario. So the end result of this analysis is that the Dollar can be viewed as a contrarian indicator after a meaningful decline, as in 10% in this time frame. Look for other signs of a market bottom, especially using my TVC:VIX signals (5 point spike indicator and VIX75% retracement) to help define a bottom. The VIX75 signal triggered on Monday, March 24th, indicating that the panic from the selloff had moderated to a point enough to signal that the panic was over. Do some more research for yourself and see if the TVC:DXY drop was an "asset allocation" shift as US investors bailed out of US stocks to invest in non-US stocks or was it another wave of non-US investors dumping US stocks to cut risk. Either way, know what you are investing in and question everything. These days, it is more important to be educated and use TradingView to chart and research the past will help you be a more educated investor. Cheers, Tim
SP:SPXLong
by timwest
1
S&P INTRADAY - Stronger Growth, Labour Market ResilientUS Q4 GDP (Annualized) came in at 2.4%, beating forecasts of 2.3%, signalling resilient economic growth despite higher interest rates. A stronger-than-expected economy supports corporate earnings but may also reinforce the Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts. Initial Jobless Claims (4-week average) declined to 224K from 227K, pointing to continued labor market strength. A tight job market supports consumer spending, which is crucial for corporate revenue but may keep inflationary pressures elevated, influencing Fed policy expectations. Market Impact: S&P 500: The better-than-expected GDP and healthy labor market data suggest economic momentum remains intact, supporting corporate earnings and risk appetite. However, persistent strength may delay Fed rate cuts, potentially leading to market volatility. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 5780 Resistance Level 2: 5844 Resistance Level 3: 5920 Support Level 1: 5660 Support Level 2: 5604 Support Level 3: 5540 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
4
S&P500 Huge retest of former Channel Down.S&P500 / US500 took a big hit today following the higher than expected PCE, causing a price rejection on the 4hour MA50. So far however the drop stopped exactly at the top of the former Channel Down of February-March. With the 4hour RSI on the same level as March 10th, if this level holds, it will be a huge retest buy signal and will start a new bullish wave. Based on this, we'd expect the 1day MA50 to be targeted at 5,850. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TheCryptagon
SPX On Verge Of A Bearish Decent - Weekly ViewThe S&P 500 is pointing at a long descent downwards based upon simple technical analysis. To further bolster our projection of the market it is no secret the recent trade wars are going to have a major negative impact upon the US & world economy for obvious reasons. With this in mind we can paint a clear picture of where price action is going to head. The question remains where do we enter short? As we can see in our chart we have broke the current upwards bullish weekly trend line #2. Price action has quickly took a swing downwards to our second trend line #1. In short trend lines simply put are the bottom lows of a bullish market. We can clearly define these trend lines over a long period of time where price action has risen, declined, and then continued its current trend upwards. By marking three bottom or more bottoms lows in a bullish market we can project bottom prices of where price action should never cross below. So what happens when price crosses below these said trend lines? Easy, price action will decrease. This is the case on our chart viewing for trend #2. As for where price action will continue downwards and stop we can simply view the past history of the market to determine this. Viewing trend line #1 we can see this was the bottom start of the bullish market was 2023 Oct on the weekly chart. Price action has increased aprox. 48 percent with no more than a 8.5 percent in the summer of 2024. That is until our King Donny Trump entered office. From the top of last peak in this bullish cycle SPX has fallen roughly 6.5 percent. Price has clearly broken trend line #2 and is now testing the resistance of price at trend line #1. If price shall break the trend line #2 we will easily fall into our support zone #1. Support zones are nothing more than where price action consolidated sideways for a period of time. These zones are like magnets. Price almost always 'pulls' towards these zones as it is a proven history of the market resistance and support. The earning moving average(EMA) of the SPX is even more concerning. The red(10 day), blue(21 day), yellow(50day) are the thin lines just below the candles in the chart. The EMA is exactly what it sounds like. The past earning moving average over the past 'x' amount of days. Viewing the EMA data allows you see if the price average is above, on par, or below 'x' amount of past days. This is very important key metric to determine the average market price over a period of time as you can imagine. Even more so important is when price declines below the EMA line. Price going below a 50, 100, or 200 day moving average are levels we want to watch. Currently price action has bounced right off the 50 day EMA. No surprise as this is a very important resistance level day traders will buy only to sell off shortly after. Crossing below the 50 day(yellow line) is known as the 'death cross' for a reason. If price crosses below it we can certainly count on a decline in price action into support zone #1 with easy.
SP:SPXShort
by remarkableCake99061
2
S&P500: Recovered the 1W MA50. Best buy opportunity of 2025.The S&P500 is marginally neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 47.606, MACD = -47.070, ADX = 35.637) as it is in the process of recovery from the previous oversold condition. What the index did recover however, and which is a massive buy signal, is the 1W MA50. Technically this trendline held two weeks ago, despite marginally crossing under it, and provided the basis for a new long term bottom. Basically it is the exact same pattern as the October 23rd 2023 bottom, which was also a HL on the 3 year Channel Up, declined also by -11% and the 1W RSI was almost on the same level as today's low (the S1 level). Every bullish wave inside this 3 year pattern hit at least the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. Given that this bottom was made on the 0.618 Channel Fib level, like both of the last two HL (Aug 5th 2024, April 15th 2024), we expect a test of the Channel's top by the end of the year. A TP = 6,700 would still be under the 2.0 Fib extension and that's out long term target. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope