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FED Rate Cut Sept. 19: Market ImplicationsFed expected to cut rates ~0.5% on Sept. 19 Short-term outlook: • Likely market correction before/during the event • "Sell the news" expected • Traders may capitalize on retail investors' optimism around the FED rate cut Why? Historical patterns show corrections often precede rate cuts. this time might be no exception. FED rate cut market dynamics: • Institutional investors take profits around the rate cut • Potential liquidity squeeze as positions unwind • Volatility and TVC:VIX will increase Long-term: • Rate cuts generally bullish over time • Lower rates can stimulate economic growth • But full effects may take months to materialize Strategic considerations: • Market dip can be a buying opportunities • Consider index ETFs like SP:SPX and NASDAQ:QQQ and stocks with fundamentals or even Bitcoin. Personally, I will also add the leveraged ETFs AMEX:SSO and AMEX:QLD • Consider dollar-cost averaging during volatility Markets are complex. This analysis isn't financial advice. Always do thorough research and consider your risk tolerance.
SP:SPXShort
by HenriqueCentieiro
Very Important 2 Days ... Hi Everybody We probably gonna see loads of volatility because of This employment Data ahead of us that volatility wave is gonna help to find market direction first, i would not jump into trade when things not clear PATIENCE is very important...! Remember As a Trader we do not predict the future.! I can still share my ideas in mean time but i would never stay in trade very long because we are not in trading market. There is loads of divergence market idea ( Bulls -Bears ) on the market this is why market is not trending ... Best of Luck Regards
OANDA:SPX500USD
by rintintin1981
You Are a Puppet - How The Elite is Manipulating the MarketsWelcome back Future Demons Let me make it very clear. I’m here to help you become a better trader, and make money. I’m not a fan of Wall Street, the Elite, the big asset management companies like BlackRock, Vanguard who own most of the biggest companies in the world. They are known for manipulating the markets, to bait you in, and take advantage of you. They are ruthless. They have secret collabs with journalists around the world from big mainstream media, who will trick you with clickbait articles. But there is way more.. Also there is a big misconception, that the big American asset management companies only hold Western stocks. No, my friend. They hold Russian and Chinese stocks as well. They try to disguise it of course via shadow companies and banks. The Elite in USA, Europe, Russia and China are all "working together", and all have part in the world’s biggest companies and share the same goal. More money and more power. This is NOT a war between sides - East vs West - as they will portrait it in the mainstream media. They have and will continue to brainwash you to believe in this narrative, while they are making money, and the people are dying in war. This is in reality a war between up and down. The elite vs the people. Historically it has always been like that. The church vs the illiterate people. The Kingdom vs the peasents. And there is no difference this time. —— Why am I telling you this? We haven’t seen a bear market in 15 years, which is unheard of. We have been very close many times, but suddenly came COVID, which made the markets blossom again. The small businesses went bankrupt, while the giants made money again. After some time we saw a decline again. Russia invaded Ukraine, and USA (NATO), didn’t try to stop the war. They rejected any kind of diplomatic negotiations. Why? Obviously because they knew, that especially a proxy-war is good for the markets. All the weapons US has sold to Ukraine, made the markets recover. Then again very conveniently Israel had an excuse to use their power against Palestine, which meant more war-money, and again the market managed to recover. The recent little trick is now the 600,000 polio-vaccines UN will give to the Palestinian kids, who are suffering in Gaza. There is catch though, that many is not aware of. The polio vaccine is made by a French company Sanofi. It only takes a Google search or 2 to find out, who the biggest investor is: Dodge Cox, owned by Johnson, Wells Fargo, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft and more. Last but not least, let me also state, that the AI hype lately has been the main reason the markets has increased. But with this post I just want to make it clear, that the Elite, the Deep State, whatever you want to call them, will do whatever it takes to make money. And they are ruthless. What to do now? If you are out of the markets, stay out! If you are in the markets secure profit. We have no idea how high we will go, but there is no doubt imo, that this is a huge bubble, and we will most likely soon go into a Depression like we did 100 years ago in the 1930s. War has historically always been the last instrument before a crash. Kind Regards LaPlaces Demon PS. I know that some people might disagree with my analysis, which is totally ok. What I have learnt the last 10 years trading is to follow the money. And market psychology is my biggest strength.
SP:SPXShort
by Lapl4cesDem0n
10
September Weakness and Potential DeclineSeptember Weakness and Potential Decline The chart clearly shows a historical pattern of weakness in September for the S&P 500 index. Based on this seasonal trend, there's a strong possibility that the index will continue to decline throughout the month. Historical September Performance Looking at the seasonality data at the bottom of the chart, we can see that September has consistently been a challenging month for the S&P 500: The average September performance over the years shown is -1.83% In recent years (2020-2023), September returns have been negative, ranging from -4.76% to -9.34% Current Market Situation The chart indicates that the index has already begun to show signs of weakness: There's a visible downward trend in the most recent candlesticks A red arrow pointing downwards suggests a bearish outlook Projected Decline Given the historical data and current market conditions, it's reasonable to expect: A continued downward trajectory throughout September A potential decline that could mirror the average September performance of -1.83%, or possibly more severe, considering recent years' trends Consistency of Decline The consistency of the decline may follow the pattern observed in previous years: A steady, gradual decrease rather than sharp drops Possible short-term fluctuations, but maintaining an overall downward trend It's important to note that while historical patterns and current indicators suggest a bearish outlook for September, market conditions can change rapidly due to various economic and geopolitical factors. Traders should always consider multiple data points and remain vigilant to potential market shifts.
SP:SPXShort
by curtischangTW
Bear Pressure Remains (Key Levels to Watch - SPX, NDX)Tuesday - Bear Candle breaking support Wednesday - weak re-test of the support (now becoming resistance) Bearish pressure remains firm with key levels lower on the major indexes. Near-term bearish until price proves otherwise. Taking stops, protecting profits and managing hedges. JPY "unwinding" is also back on the radar. I'll be watching the JPY strength and Nikkei correlation. I still hold long FXY through 2026 (call options) Thanks for watching!!!
SP:SPX
by ChrisPulver
SPX Analysis for Today: What’s Next After Yesterday’s Big Drop?Wow! Yesterday was brutal for us all on SPX with a major bearish move that probably left a lot of traders scratching their heads. So, what’s the game plan for today? Let’s break it down. 1. Technical Picture After the Drop Yesterday’s sell-off took SPX to key levels, and now we’re sitting in some interesting territory. The 5550-5570 range is what we’re watching closely—this could act as support, but if it cracks, we might be heading lower, potentially toward 5500. On the flip side, if buyers step in, we could see a bounce back toward 5550, which was previous support but might now act as resistance. Traders should keep an eye on whether we break out of that range or get rejected. 2. The News That Matters A lot of today’s action depends on what’s going on in the broader world. Are we getting any new data on inflation or jobs? If inflation numbers come in hot, the market could get nervous again, anticipating more rate hikes from the Fed. But if the data is lighter, we might get a relief rally after yesterday’s beatdown. Also, keep an eye on any big headlines—geopolitical tension, tech earnings, or even Fed commentary. All of these could be wildcards that drive sentiment today. 3. Sentiment Check We’ve got VIX (the fear gauge) pretty elevated right now, so people are still pretty nervous. Watch for whether that calms down today—if it does, we might get some relief in SPX. But if VIX stays high or climbs further, brace yourselves for more volatility. The Bottom Line: If today’s news stokes more fear, we could see another push lower. But if the market takes a breather, we might get a short-term bounce. Either way, buckle up—it’s going to be another interesting session!
SP:SPX
by Deno_Trading
Fed Rate Cut, Ultra Bullish? Yes But...Are we there yet? Positive news, positive developments, a bullish market... The FED will cut rates soon, is this an ultra-bullish development for the stocks and Cryptocurrency market? The market moves in cycles and grows with or without the FED. In 2023 the FED was raising rates and the stocks and Cryptocurrency market experienced growth the entire year. Long-term, cuts to the FED rates is super bullish but watch-out for the short-term. Here is how it works: 👉 Since the FED is going to cut rates soon, traders and market participants take profits before/during the event. They capitalize on the fact that the general populace see this as a bullish development (thanks to the media which is already in a campaign to mislead everybody) and use it to sell at high prices. There is always a major crash/correction before the change in FED policies takes place. I repeat, the financial markets tend to crash before/during the event. So, instead of ultra-bullish, expect a major crash all across. After the crash, we will have bullish for sure. Just remember, all the markets were growing when the rates were the highest; Bitcoin grew from November 2022 through March 2024; the stock market is at all-time highs and has been growing for years with interest rates at their highest. When the cuts become real, this will be a major bearish event. Just in case you are reading the news, because they are telling it in reverse. Protect your capital. Stay safe. Namaste.
SP:SPXShort
by AlanSantana
21
Tech sell-off dents risk appetite US stock indices marked the end of summer and the first full trading session of September by closing sharply lower yesterday. All the majors came under sustained selling pressure, with the biggest losses suffered by tech. The NASDAQ 100 fell 3.3%, closely followed by mid-caps, with the Russell 2000 shedding 3.1%. Market darling NVIDIA slumped 9.5%, taking its total decline from its all-time high back in June to 23.3%. Have we seen peak-NVIDIA, or is this simply a healthy correction? Much depends on growth in generative AI, along with the ability of other chip makers to offer up some competition. Stock indices closed near their lows last night, not helped by yesterday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI, which, while up on last month’s reading, was below expectations, and remains firmly in contraction territory. The selling has continued this morning with the S&P 500 briefly breaking back below 5,500. Last week, the index came frustratingly close to taking out its record high of 5,670 from mid-July, shortly before the stock market plunge from a month ago. That sell-off was triggered by the unwinding of the Japanese yen carry-trade, followed by an unexpectedly weak US Non-Farm Payroll number. The latter suggested that the US economy may be slowing faster than anticipated, just after a Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting left the key Fed Funds rate unchanged. Fast forward a month and equity markets had recovered most of their early August losses, until yesterday. And this Friday sees the latest update on Non-Farm Payrolls, with the next Fed rate decision to come less than a fortnight later. There is some nervousness out there as investors prepare for the payroll release. But before that, we have the latest JOLTS Job Openings update this afternoon, with weekly Unemployment Claims and the monthly ADP report tomorrow. Further weakness in the labour market won’t raise the probabilities of a rate cut this month, as that already stands at 100%. But it could shift the dial as far as expectations for 25 or 50 basis points is concerned. If this week brings evidence of a sharp slowdown in the labour market, then that will increase the probability of a 50 basis points cut. While the market has been pricing in aggressive rate cuts since last October, they may not react favourably to a large reduction, as this could signal problems for the US economy going forward.
TRADENATIONSB:US500
by muggins
#S&P500 $GSPC Falls 2.12% to 5528.93The Magnificent Seven tech stocks are no longer outperforming the rest of the 493 stocks in the S&P500. Shares in Nvidia plunged nearly 10% on the first trading day after the Labour Day weekend holiday wiping nearly 300 billion dollars off the firm’s value in the largest single-day value drop in US stock market history. US stock futures (#DJI , #IXIC, #GSPC) edge lower on Tuesday. Markets are looking ahead to the avalanche of economic data due out this week, including August's jobs report this Friday, September 6. Crucial jobs report kicks off a new month: The August jobs report, due out on Friday, will headline economic releases in the week ahead as investors look to see whether the signs of slowing in the July jobs report were overstated or an early warning of a broader slowdown. Updates on job openings and private wage growth are also on the schedule, as well as activity checks from the services and manufacturing sectors. (The S&P hadn't cleared the July high - trading in a narrow range - but this changed today with an clear undercut of this range, and a close at converged 20-day and 50-day MAs support. It would be a good time for a bounce, particularly if there is a bullish candlestick like a dragonfly doji or bullis hammer at these moving averages. Technicals are net bullish).
SP:SPX
by BaseLineTraders
SP500 1D - DOUBLE TOP = HEADSP500 1D - DOUBLE TOP = HEAD The SP500 is finishing drawing the head of the SHS figure with this double maximum. If in these days it does not manage to break the resistance, the fall can be quite steep to go looking for the 4800 in the first instance and continue going down to 3600, base of the previous shoulder. If the SP500 manages to break the resistance, this figure would be cancelled. As always, it is better to act with a head and do things at the right time.
SP:SPXShort
by DeuXfi
S&P 500: New ATH? 59% Chance!Economic Resilience: The U.S. economy continues to show strength, with robust job growth and consumer spending supporting overall market performance. Technological Advancements: Ongoing innovations in AI and other tech sectors are driving productivity gains and creating new growth opportunities for many S&P 500 companies. Corporate Earnings: Many companies are reporting better-than-expected earnings, indicating strong business performance and potential for further market gains. Global Recovery: As international markets stabilize, U.S. multinationals within the S&P 500 are benefiting from increased global demand and improved supply chains. Monetary Policy: While the Federal Reserve remains vigilant, there are indications that the interest rate hiking cycle may be nearing its end, potentially providing a more favorable environment for equities. Using the X1X2 strategy, I'll be looking for optimal entry points for long positions. Let's dive into the comprehensive top-down analysis together. 12M: 2W: 3H: Please feel free to share your thoughts and suggestions!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Jasminex1x2
2
S&P 500 Bearish Trade Plan 3-4 weeks Overview: The S&P 500 is showing a potential bearish setup over the next 3-4 weeks based on fundamental economic data, seasonal trends, and market positioning. Combined with technical analysis, this trade plan outlines a short bias, with key profit targets at significant market levels. Fundamentals: Several key factors suggest potential downward pressure on the S&P 500 in the near term: Inflation Concerns: Inflation continues to remain above central bank targets, which could force the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance.Rising interest rates and reduced liquidity in the markets have traditionally led to reduced corporate profitability and weaker stock market performance. US Consumer Spending: Recent data has shown signs of slowing consumer demand as rising interest rates and inflation weigh on disposable incomes. This weakening consumer sentiment could negatively impact corporate earnings, leading to selling pressure in the equity markets. Global Macro Factors: Global supply chain issues, geopolitical tensions, and the potential for further economic slowdowns in Europe and China could exacerbate downside risk in equities. The S&P 500’s exposure to global markets could act as a drag on performance. Earnings Season: Many companies are adjusting their forward earnings estimates lower due to weaker demand and increased costs. This negative earnings guidance could contribute to further downside in the index. Seasonality: Historically, September is one of the weakest months for the S&P 500, and this trend has been amplified in recent years. Here’s a closer look at the data: 5-Year Performance: Over the last five years, September has seen an average decline of -49.9788 points in the S&P 500. This is a significant drop compared to other months. 2-Year Performance: The two-year average shows a massive decline of -180.7979 points in September, reflecting the market's extreme vulnerability during this period. These seasonal trends suggest that traders tend to adopt a risk-off sentiment during September, likely due to various macroeconomic concerns, earnings reports, and upcoming policy announcements. The historical performance implies that we should expect a bearish bias for the rest of September, with potential for recovery in October and November, which are typically stronger months for the S&P 500. COT Data (Commitment of Traders Report): The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report supports the bearish outlook, as market participants are positioning for potential downside: Commercial Traders (Smart Money): Net Short Position: Commercial traders, typically hedgers and large institutions, are heavily net short with a -29,163 net position. This indicates they expect downside risk and are hedging against a drop in the market. Large Speculators: Speculators, often trend-following hedge funds, hold a significant short position as well, with a net short of -81,908. This reflects an alignment with commercial traders and suggests that sentiment among speculative traders is also bearish. The combination of commercial hedgers and speculative traders holding bearish positions is a strong confirmation of the downside risk. Technical Analysis: Key Levels & Market Structure: Weak High: The recent price action shows the S&P 500 forming a weak high near the 5,700 zone. This failure to create a higher high suggests that the bullish momentum is losing strength, indicating a potential reversal. Premium Zone (Resistance): The price has rejected the premium zone between 5,650 - 5,700, signaling that the market may struggle to break higher. The rejection suggests that sellers have stepped in, adding further pressure to the downside. Break of Structure (BOS): The Break of Structure (BOS) earlier in the chart confirms a shift from a bullish to a bearish trend. This structure break strengthens the case for continued downside momentum. Equilibrium (Fair Value): The equilibrium level around 4,935 represents a natural profit target for short positions. This level is key as it reflects the balance between buyers and sellers and is where the price could consolidate or rebound after a bearish move. Discount Zone (Support): The discount zone between 4,164 and 4,701 acts as a strong support level. Should the bearish trend accelerate, this area would be an ideal target for taking profits or watching for potential bullish reversal signals. Trade Setup: Entry: Short the S&P 500 around the current price level (5,650 - 5,700), as the price has rejected the premium zone and formed a weak high, signaling the potential for further downside. Stop Loss: Place a stop-loss above the premium zone at 5,700 to protect against a breakout higher. Target 1: Equilibrium zone around 4,935.9 for the first profit target. Target 2: If bearish pressure continues, hold the position towards the discount zone between 4,164 - 4,701, where stronger buying interest is likely to emerge. Risk Management: Risk/Reward Ratio: Aim for a 1:6 risk-to-reward ratio, given the significant downside potential. Position Size: Limit risk per trade to 2-3% of your account balance to manage potential volatility.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Mike_SnD
S&P 500 - Fan Reversal Setting UpThe S&P 500 is forming a Base below the Supply Zone. A Fan is apparent from the origin of the Rally. Three ascending trendlines connect to price action within the base. The Fan reversal begins to set up once price crosses/breaks the 3rd trendline. Price action will be contained within the consolidation, with a possible false break If you look to Volume and Momentum, both show a progressive divergence is in play and are bearish signs. The trigger to short is a clear break of the Support Level at 5560. The bias is for a small correction only (.382 fib), before a break to a new ATH.
U
by Umlingo
1