Tag ‘n Turn → Bear Mode EngagedV-Shape Reversal Confirms Short Bias
You ever see a setup pull a fakeout, tease a breakout, then pivot perfectly back into your system?
That was yesterday.
The Tag ‘n Turn gave us another clean swing exit off the upper Bollinger Band, and while I was ready to defer the next entry, a tidy little V-shaped reversal handed us the confirmation we needed. We’re back bearish. Levels are set. Now we let the market do its thing.
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SPX Market View
Let’s unpack the sequence.
Price ran up into the upper Bollinger Band and triggered the final legs of our overnight swings. That was the cash-out point – system clean, profits booked.
But I wasn’t diving into the next setup just yet.
Why?
Because it looked like the start of a Bollinger breakout – the kind that breaks the pinch and rips higher. So I paused. Waited.
Then came the V-shaped reversal – clear as day within 2 hours.
Entry happened late in the day, around the same level the mechanical Tag ‘n Turn would have fired. No edge lost. Just added confirmation.
Now? The system is officially bearish again, with a firm rejection at highs and a sharp drive lower that flipped the tone of the day and the bias on the chart.
Today’s key levels:
5620 = GEX flip zone
Also where we bounced up post-FOMC
5680 = resistance zone – could mark today’s top
We’re back in the pre-FOMC chop zone.
The plan:
Bearish until price tells us otherwise
Hedge levels marked
No chase
Wait for price to hit our zone
Let the system print
Expert Insights:
Jumping the gun on reversals – wait for structure, not assumptions.
Chasing breakouts too early – pinch points often fake before they break.
Skipping levels – 5620 and 5680 matter. Mark them or risk regret.
Overmanaging overnight trades – exits were planned. Trust the system.
Forcing direction changes – confirmation > prediction. The system knows.
Satirical cartoon showing confirmation over prediction.
Rumour Has It…
Word is the SPX reversal was caused by a rogue intern at the Fed who mistook the breakout chart for a bowl of ramen and tried to stir it with a mouse. After rebooting TradingView, they accidentally submitted a bearish policy note to Bloomberg. The market reversed out of pure confusion.
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
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Fun Fact
The term “V-shaped reversal” originated in early floor trading days when chalkboard analysts would literally sketch a V on the board as a real-time note to floor brokers. That visual shorthand became one of the most recognized intraday patterns in trading – a pattern that still works in a world of tickers, bots, and zero-DTE.
USA500 trade ideas
S&P INTRADAY uptrend continuationMarket and Geopolitical Update
US–UK Trade Deal: Donald Trump announced a trade agreement with the UK, calling it the first of his promised deals. Details will be released by the White House.
Chipmakers Rise: The US plans to roll back some Biden-era AI chip export restrictions, boosting chip stocks. New rules are in development to better control foreign chip use.
Markets Rally: US stock futures climbed, Bitcoin neared $100,000, and the dollar strengthened slightly after the Fed signaled no rush to cut rates.
Corporate Struggles: Despite market optimism, companies continue to feel tariff pressure. Toyota expects a $1.3 billion hit, while Maersk downgraded its transport outlook.
India–Pakistan Tensions: Pakistan reported shooting down 12 Indian drones, escalating long-standing tensions. India’s Nifty 50 dropped 0.4%, and Pakistan’s KSE-30 fell 7%.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5730
Resistance Level 2: 5780
Resistance Level 3: 5874
Support Level 1: 5580
Support Level 2: 5510
Support Level 3: 5440
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
SPX500USD Chart Breakdown Price is currently approaching the 5,708 🔼 resistance zone after a strong bullish rally from the 5,320 🔽 support level. The market structure remains bullish, with higher highs and higher lows supported by the upward-sloping 50-period SMA.
Support at: 5,590 🔽, 5,450 🔽, 5,320 🔽
Resistance at: 5,708 🔼, 5,840 🔼
Bias:
🔼 Bullish: If price breaks and holds above 5,708 🔼, we could see continuation toward 5,840. Holding above the 50 SMA strengthens the bullish outlook.
🔽 Bearish: A rejection from 5,708 🔼 could send price back down toward 5,590, with further weakness exposing 5,450 🔽.
📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
SPX Running Into Important Resistance At 5780Last week we saw a weaker-than-expected Advance GDP in the first release, which led some to believe Powell might consider cutting rates. But Friday’s NFP came in better than expected. Expectations are no change for the Fed, and I honestly don’t believe they’ll move either.
Despite Trump putting pressure on them, inflation is still not at their 2% target, and the job market remains solid—so there may be no real reason to cut yet.
They’re watching markets too, and we've seen a pretty strong rebound, so there’s likely no urgency to act now.
Also, if they were to cut, it could appear politically motivated due to Trump, and that could seriously damage investor trust in the Fed’s independence.
So with that being said, we are wondering if the SPX can find some resistance if FED does not deliver a dovish view at this moment. Well, looking at the price action, it certainly looks overlaping recovery from April low, that can face limited upside near 5780, at April 2nd high.
If by Friday, we close above the 78.6% Fib then we may look at wave 3, alt sceario.
Grega
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 2, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week's trading session, the Index demonstrated a steady to higher price movement, achieving a key target at the Outer Index Rally level of 5550 and successfully surpassing the Mean Resistance level of 5672. This trajectory establishes the foundation for sustained upward momentum as it approaches the Mean Resistance level of 5778 and sets sights on reaching the next Outer Index Rally target marked at 5945. However, it is essential to acknowledge the substantial risk of a sharp retracement from the current price level to the Mean Support level of 5601, with the potential for further decline to the Mean Support level of 5525.
U.S. Bulls Take Charge: S&P 500 Set to Break OutHello,
📊 S&P 500 Market Outlook – Pro-Bullish Perspective
🔥 Market Recap: The S&P 500 recently saw a significant dip, marking a 1-year low at 4805.92, largely attributed to the shockwaves caused by President Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement on April 2. This move sent markets into a tailspin, creating heightened volatility levels not seen since the early pandemic days.
However, savvy traders recognized opportunity amidst the panic and entered strategic buy zones around those lows. Since then, the index has managed to stabilize above key technical levels, signaling potential bullish momentum building from the ground up.
🧭 Current Key Technical Levels to Watch:
1W Pivot Point (PP): ✅ Holding above 5224.13
1D Pivot Point (PP): ⚠️ Testing resistance at 5297.05
1M Strong Support/Resistance: ⛔ Acting as resistance at 5329.31
🚀 Bullish Confirmation Pathway:
To fully confirm a bottom-up bullish reversal, we’re looking for:
✅ Sustained close above the 1D PP @ 5297.05
✅ Break and hold above the 1M Resistance @ 5329.31
✅ Momentum toward the 1Y PP @ 5550.97
If these levels are conquered with conviction, it opens the door for an extended upside move toward 5878.58, aligning with a broader bullish sentiment.
🛑 Cautionary Downside Scenario:
Although currently less likely, a failure to maintain support above the 1W PP @ 5224.13 could reopen downside risk in the short term. We remain watchful of that level as a bull-bear pivot.
🌐 Macro Overview – Tariff Shock & Earnings Spotlight:
Trump’s abrupt tariff move has reshuffled the global economic deck, and investors are still processing its implications.
The S&P 500 is currently down ~14% from its February highs, but showing resilience.
Earnings season is now center stage, with major players like Tesla, Alphabet, IBM, and Boeing under the microscope.
⚠️ Volatility Index (VIX) is down from post-tariff highs (~60) to ~30, still elevated from the long-term median of 17.6, signaling cautious optimism.
💬 CEO Sentiment Matters:
As JJ Kinahan from IG North America noted:
“The view of CEOs going forward has never been more important.”
With traditional guidance uncertain, investors are leaning on transparent, scenario-based outlooks like United Airlines’ “dual roadmap” approach.
🔋 Magnificent Seven on Watch:
Alphabet: -20% YTD
Tesla: -40% YTD
These leaders are key sentiment barometers. If they bounce, the broader market is likely to follow.
🏛️ Fed & Trump Tensions:
Trump recently stated that Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s termination “cannot come fast enough,” pushing for rate cuts.
Powell, however, remains cautious, citing the need for more economic data before acting.
✍️ Final Note – A Cooling Tariff War?
💬 According to Trump’s latest statement, the tone around tariffs is beginning to cool, hinting at possible de-escalation.
This development adds further bullish tailwinds to the broader market outlook.
✅ Summary:
We are leaning bullish here with the base-building process in motion. Key levels are aligning, volatility is easing, and clarity from corporate earnings could be the catalyst to propel markets upward.
Watch for a clean breakout above 5329 — that’s where the real confirmation begins. Eyes on the prize: 5878.58 👀📈
The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1M-1Y timeframes!
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
US500 at Critical Resistance - Weekly Chart Breakdown📊 US500 Weekly Chart Analysis
Taking a close look at the US500 on the weekly timeframe, we can see price has now traded directly into a bearish weekly order block 🧱 — a key distribution zone where smart money activity often emerges. At this level, the market is trading at a premium 💰 and appears to be overextended 📈.
⚠️ From a risk management standpoint, I’d advise extreme caution — the current conditions could set the stage for a sharp retracement, especially as we approach week’s end. This level aligns with areas where institutional players may look to offload risk or reverse exposure.
🔁 A potential pullback from here would not be surprising, given the elevated context and technical structure.
📚 This breakdown is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
SPX 1st rejection1st rejection of last week's close. I say mark the zone and be cautious. Key levels will be targets (daily hi & lo minimum). If your hit targets, take profit. when aiming above, take the trade from a support level or specific candle shift.
Again... FOMC Wed 5/7. Will update my thoughts daily this week.
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Target 🎯: 4750 (or) Escape Before the Target
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Bullish continuation?S&P500 is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that line sup with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 6,520.93
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 5,434.59
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 5,791.21
Why we lik eit:
There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci projection.
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S&P500 – Bullish Setup Into Major Top!We expect a strong rally on the S&P 500 starting next week. Based on our timing models and wave structure, we believe a major top is likely to be formed on one of the following key dates:
📅 April 22nd, April 24th, or April 29th, 2025
🔹 Rally Targets:
• First Target: $5,630
• Second Target: $5,787
• Third Target: $6,000 (upper range projection)
This move is part of a final leg up before we anticipate a major reversal and strong downward move, potentially marking a significant turning point for the broader market.
🧠 We are currently positioned to capture this upside and will reassess risk closely as we approach the above-mentioned dates. Precision matters — and so does timing.
Little Rest For SPXI think the SPX structure is more prone to bearishness. There is a structure that will probably move quickly in one direction. I don't think a good structure has been formed for a bottom. And the rise does not seem very strong. For this reason, I expect an increase after the first fall.
Since this situation will probably reflect on crypto, my bearish contracts are still in place. But I am thinking of buying a bullish contract until the FOMC time.
S&P 500 Tests Key Zone Ahead of FOMCThe S&P 500 has reached the 5,700–5,800 zone after a nearly 18% rally in just half a month. This zone could determine whether the rally marks the end of the bearish trend or if more pain lies ahead for the stock market.
The 200-day simple moving average, several previous horizontal support levels, and the most recent top all converge in this area. The upward move has been driven by correction dynamics, optimism around potential trade deals, signs of de-escalation with China, and rising expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2025.
This week, the FOMC may either temper those optimistic rate cut expectations or hint at a more dovish tone. In either case, some profit-taking may occur ahead of the meeting, and the 5,700–5,800 zone is a strong candidate for that to happen.
SPX at a Tipping Point Rising Wedge Meets 200 EMAThe SPX is currently trading within a rising wedge a bearish pattern that typically signals exhaustion of upward momentum. Price has now stalled right at the 200 EMA, a key dynamic resistance level, and today's close came just beneath it.
If this rising wedge breaks to the downside especially with a confirmed rejection from the 200 EMA we could see accelerated selling. The next key support level to watch is $5,438.43. A breakdown from here would likely test that zone quickly.
This setup follows our earlier call from March 27, where we highlighted the $4,790 area as a bottom nearly nailed to the point. From that low, SPX rallied, but now the structure is showing signs of strain.
We’re at a decision point: hold the 200 EMA and potentially break higher or confirm the wedge breakdown and begin a new leg down.
US Markets on the Edge – Heavy Bloodshed Ahead!The charts are screaming caution!
SPX, Nasdaq, and major tech stocks are showing clear signs of exhaustion. We could be entering a heavy correction phase.
This is not the time to be greedy — protect your capital, manage risk, and tighten those stop losses.
Stay alert. Stay smart.
Massive moves are coming, and not everyone will survive them.
$SPX Rejection at Resistance – Watch 5582 for the Next Major Mov📉 After tagging the 5685–5750 resistance zone, SP:SPX is flashing major downside risk.
🔍 Key Zones:
✅ Resistance tapped: 5705–5838
🟨 FVG (Fair Value Gap): 5642–5582
❗ Daily close below 5582 → Bearish WXY structure confirmed
🟥 Hard invalidation for bulls: 4835.04
💡 I’m open to a retest of the 200DMA (currently 5746), but below 5582 I wouldn’t expect a new high.
This setup offers clear structure, risk-defined short entries, and a measured breakdown scenario if support fails.
US500: A correction will give a perfect opportunityHello,
The US500 has rebounded, maintaining its trendline as trade tension concerns subside. A promising trade setup is emerging, pending a minor correction on lower timeframes. The 2-hour and 4-hour charts indicate this correction is underway.
Long term target: $6,953
Consider entering a buy position near the moving averages, aligned with MACD signals.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.