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USA500 trade ideas

S&P500 - Donald Trump Is Crashing Markets!S&P500 ( TVC:SPX ) is starting a correction: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Since Donald Trump was elected the markets have been super volatile and clearly not too easy to trade. But now it seems like bears are slowly taking over the entire U.S. stock market after we just saw a drop of -10% within a couple of days and a correction becomes more and more likely. Levels to watch: $6.100, $4.800 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
TVC:SPXShort
by basictradingtv
26
Looking for a minimum of ES 5850In the days to come our initial pattern off the recent has the high probability to get into the 5850 area. Here I will be looking for a pullback. If this pullback can be viewed as corrective in it's structure then I expect the subdivisions and pathway on my ES4Hr chart should follow suit. However, if the pullback turns out to be impulsive, I will be looking for follow through for either Minor B having completed early, or the alternate wave (iv). If that sort of price action were to materialize, it's Friday's low of 5651.25 that must support any drop if we're to continue to subdivide higher and have this minor B take more time.
CBOE:SPX
by maikisch
4
US500 Price ActionHello Trader, As you can see, the market is currently moving to the downside, approaching a clearly identified Demand Zone. Remember, as I always emphasize: no liquidity, no valid zone. Therefore, I've also marked liquidity levels located just above this Demand Zone, along with a suggested safe Stop Loss (SL) placement. However, please keep in mind that no level is truly "safe" in trading, which is precisely why we always use stop losses and actively manage risk on every trade. Additionally, I've highlighted two potential Take Profit (TP) areas: one where you might consider closing your trade early for safety, and another where you could hold your position if price action continues to move favorably. As always, avoid greed, prioritize risk management, and trade responsibly. Wishing you all the best and happy trading! Thank you.
PEPPERSTONE:US500Long
by SuvashishFx
S&P 500 to tank to 5,100 pointsPEPPERSTONE:US500 The S&P 500 broke below critical support after Trump announce massive tariffs on everyone, worst than expected. Volume is increasing to the downside, and it looks like the next wave down has already started. Wave C is supposed to be equal or larger than wave A, and reach the next critical support, which will lead us to 5,100 points in the next couple of weeks. I heard that net tariffs on China are 54%, does than means that iPhones are going to rise in price 54%? Maybe it will be reconsidered later, and the market will bounce in the future, but not likely in the short term. Good luck to you
PEPPERSTONE:US500Short
by Raul_Dominguez
new indicator using options data ++ some project i'm working on. # Analysis of the S&P 500 Trading Dashboard Data I'll explain the key data elements used in this technical analysis dashboard and how they contribute to the trading conclusions. ## Key Price Levels and Their Significance The dashboard identifies several critical price levels for the S&P 500: - **Max Pain ($5,785)**: This represents the price level where options writers would experience the least financial pain (i.e., where the fewest options contracts would be in-the-money). The distance from the current price ($5,557.41) to max pain suggests significant upside resistance. - **Resistance Levels ($5,700 and $5,650)**: These represent areas where selling pressure is expected to increase. The $5,700 level is backed by data showing 13,877 call option contracts at this strike, creating a "wall" of resistance. - **Short Entry Zone ($5,595)**: This level was previously support that has been broken, making it a high-probability entry zone for short positions following the principle that broken support becomes resistance. - **Battle Zone ($5,550)**: An area with heavy options activity on both sides (puts and calls), indicating potential price volatility and uncertainty. - **Critical Support ($5,500)**: A psychologically important round number that also represents a significant technical level. - **Target Levels ($5,450 and $5,400)**: Projected price targets for short positions based on previous support levels and technical measurements. ## Options Market Data Two key options metrics are used to inform the analysis: 1. **Put/Call Ratio (1.80)**: This is significantly elevated above the typical range of 0.7-1.2, indicating: - Unusually bearish sentiment - Hedging activity by institutional investors - Potential for a contrarian bounce if it exceeds 2.0 The high ratio suggests market participants are purchasing put options for downside protection at an elevated rate compared to call options, confirming bearish positioning. 2. **Gamma Exposure (-$17.37 Billion)**: This negative value indicates: - Market makers are net short gamma - They must sell more futures as prices fall to maintain delta hedges - This creates a self-reinforcing downward spiral effect Gamma exposure represents the rate of change in delta (directional exposure) for options market makers. The large negative value suggests that downward price movement will accelerate as market makers must sell more futures to remain hedged, creating a "cascade effect" amplifying price movement. ## Technical Indicators and Their Interpretation The dashboard incorporates several technical analysis components: ### Price Action & Moving Averages The analysis indicates price is trading below all major moving averages (20/50/100/200 EMAs), a classic sign of bearish momentum across timeframes. When price trades below all these moving averages in sequence, it creates what traders call "bearish alignment," a strong confirmation of downtrend. ### Momentum Indicators - **RSI (Below 30)**: Indicates oversold conditions but in a strong downtrend, oversold conditions can persist. The analysis correctly warns against fighting the trend despite the oversold reading. - **MACD (Below signal line)**: Confirms negative momentum is in place, suggesting continued downward pressure. - **ACWF (Negative)**: A specialized momentum indicator showing continued bearish pressure. ### Volume Analysis - **On-Balance Volume (Declining)**: Indicates more volume on down days than up days, suggesting distribution (selling pressure). - **Volume on Down Bars (Increasing)**: Higher volume on declining price moves is a classic sign of seller control and distribution. ### Chart Patterns - **Head & Shoulders Pattern (Completed)**: A reversal pattern that typically projects further downside after completion. - **Elliott Wave Count (Wave 3)**: Wave 3 is typically the strongest and longest wave in Elliott Wave theory, suggesting significant continuation of the downtrend. ## Volatility Assessment The ATR (Average True Range) values of 9.18-98.75 indicate elevated and increasing volatility, which informs the risk management recommendations: - Reduce position size - Use wider stop losses - Expect larger price swings This is prudent risk management in high-volatility environments, as normal position sizing could lead to premature stopouts due to wider price swings. ## Trading Recommendation Logic The primary strategy (65% probability) of continued downside is based on the confluence of: 1. Bearish technical indicators across multiple timeframes 2. Negative gamma exposure creating a self-reinforcing downward spiral 3. Broken support levels and completed bearish chart patterns 4. Wave 3 Elliott Wave structure which typically has the strongest momentum The strategy recommends: - Entry at $5,590-5,600 (former support, now resistance) - Stop loss above $5,625 (limiting risk to approximately 30 points) - Targets at key support levels: $5,500, $5,450, and $5,400 - Reduced position size due to high volatility The alternative strategy (35% probability) acknowledges the potential for a reversal at the $5,500 psychological support level, but only with confirmation signals like volume decline and stabilization patterns. ## Educational Elements The dashboard incorporates several educational elements: 1. **Elliott Wave Theory**: The identification of Wave 3 of a 5-wave downtrend sequence suggests the current move is likely the strongest part of the larger bearish structure. 2. **Options Market Mechanics**: Explanation of how negative gamma exposure creates a self-reinforcing price action effect as market makers hedge their positions. 3. **Technical Analysis Patterns**: Clear labeling of patterns like the Head & Shoulders and broken uptrend line, along with their implications. 4. **Risk Management**: Specific recommendations for position sizing and stop placement in a high-volatility environment. This analysis combines price action, options market data, technical indicators, volume analysis, and chart patterns to create a comprehensive trading approach with specific entry, exit, and risk management parameters.
EIGHTCAP:SPX500
by user2839409
SPX500 Technical Analysis🔹 Trend Overview: SPX500 has been in a strong downtrend, and the price has already broken the 5,599.30 support level, confirming further bearish momentum. The next key support to watch is 5,506.40 (2025 lowest point). 🔹 Key Levels: 📈 Resistance: 5,599.30 (now turned resistance), 5,679.90 📉 Support: 5,506.40 – If broken, the sell-off could accelerate further. 🔹 Market Structure: ⚠️ Bearish scenario: Since 5,599.30 has already been broken, the price is likely to continue down to 5,506.40. A break below this level could push the market into new 2025 lows. 🚀 Bullish scenario: If the market pulls back above 5,599.30 and reclaims it as support, a temporary bounce to 5,679.90 could occur. 📌 Risk Management: -Wait for price action confirmation before entering new positions. -Monitor for potential retests of broken levels.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by juniormoseki1
S&P 500 Wave Analysis – 1 April 2025 - S&P 500 reversed from support area - Likely to rise to resistance level 5700.00 S&P 500 index recently reversed from the support area located between the support level 5500.00 (low of the previous wave (A)), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the uptrend from August. The downward reversal from this support area stopped the earlier short-term impulse wave 1 of the downward impulse sequence (C) from the end of March. Given the improving sentiment across the equity markets and the strength of the support level 5500.00, S&P 500 index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 5700.00.
SP:SPXLong
by FxProGlobal
Trump single handedly started a worldwide recession- of course, economic recessions and a stock market correction/crash are two very different things but in this case it does seem like both are probably connected seeing tariff implementations against basically the entire world are hardly productive in an economic sense - with March´s close, the 3M candle closed as a BEARISH engulfing - SPX to fall at least to the 600 level but even a scenario such as a year to two year long bear market should not be excluded In addition, there is a REAL RISK of China expediting its process of unification with Taiwan and could use the overall macro uncertainty as a veil under which it may attack the island sooner rather than in 2027 or 2028.
SP:SPXShort
by Mansasuma