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Trump’s Triumph or Tragedy?The S&P 500 recently faced a sharp decline, with many rushing to blame renewed trade war tensions under President Trump's second term. But is this downturn truly a political reaction — or was it already baked into the market’s DNA? A deeper dive using Elliott Wave Theory suggests something far more structural: the recent fall is part of a broader wave pattern, and the real crash hasn’t even begun. A Look Back: How the Market Reacted to Tariffs in Trump's First Term During Trump’s first presidency: First Tariff Hike caused an 11.77% drop Second Tariff Hike led to an 8.35% decline China’s reaction triggered a 20% fall Despite this turbulence, the market rebounded sharply, climbing 44% post-trade war — forming a textbook Wave 5 extension. This historical context is crucial: event-based declines often align with technical wave structures, not random panic. Why the Market Fell Now (and Not Earlier) Trump’s second term victory wasn’t unexpected. Neither was his return to tariff-heavy policies. So why didn’t the market react earlier? 📉 Because this isn’t about Tariffs . It’s about Wave 4. The current market downturn coincides with the natural Wave 4 correction of a multi-decade Elliott Wave cycle. This phase is often sharp and emotional — yet incomplete. The final Wave 5 rally is still ahead, possibly pushing the index to new highs above 7,000. The Calm Before the Storm: What Comes After Wave 5 Following the euphoric rally of Wave 5, the market is expected to face a massive correction — Wave II — projected to be as severe as the 2008-09 financial crisis, if not worse. Potential triggers: Overleveraged markets Global debt bubbles Geopolitical instability Inflation shockwaves AI and tech overvaluation Conclusion: Trump’s Triumph or Tragedy? This wave analysis raises the question: will Trump’s second term be remembered for a market rally or a devastating crash? The answer may be both. ✅ Short-term triumph via Wave 5 ⚠️ Long-term tragedy via Wave II The smart investor will ride the wave — but also prepare for the fall. Key Takeaways: Current decline = Wave 4, not the final crash Wave 5 (upside) may still take S&P to new highs Post-Wave 5 = Major correction, possibly like 2008 Trump’s tariffs are catalysts, but not the root cause Technical patterns > political events in long-term moves
SP:SPXLong
by BISHNU_P_BASYAL
What are Tariffs? How They Work and Why They Matter to You?For centuries, tariffs have played a crucial role in global trade, safeguarding domestic industries, shaping international relations, and influencing economic policies. While they often dominate headlines during trade wars and economic policy debates, many people still don’t fully understand what tariffs are, why they are used, and how they impact the economy. This comprehensive guide covers: ⦿ What tariffs are and how they work ⦿ Different types of tariffs ⦿ Why governments impose tariffs ⦿ The economic, political, and social effects of tariffs. ⦿ Historical and modern examples ⦿ The debate between protectionism and free trade ⦿ Tariffs in different economic systems ⦿ The future of tariffs in a globalized world By the end of this article, you’ll have a decent understanding of tariffs and their role in the global economy. 🤔 What Are Tariffs? A tariff is a tax imposed by a government on imported goods and services. The primary purpose of tariffs is to increase the cost of foreign products, making domestically produced goods more attractive to consumers. This serves several economic and political functions, such as protecting domestic industries, generating government revenue, and addressing trade imbalances. 👍 How Do Tariffs Work? A government sets a tariff rate on imported goods (e.g., 25% on foreign cars). Importers must pay this tax when bringing goods into the country. This increases the cost of imported goods, enhancing the competitiveness of domestic alternatives. Domestic industries benefit from reduced foreign competition. The government collects revenue from the tariff. 🦸‍♂ Who Pays the Tariff? Importers: These businesses or individuals directly pay the tariff when they bring goods into the country. This increases their costs. Businesses: Since importers face higher costs, businesses that rely on imported goods often pass these costs onto consumers by increasing prices. Consumers: Ultimately, the general public bears the cost as they pay higher prices for goods affected by tariffs. 🔎 Types of Tariffs Governments employ various tariffs depending on their economic goals and trade policies. Some of these are: 1️⃣ Ad Valorem Tariffs An ad valorem tariff is a percentage-based tariff calculated on the value of the imported goods. The tax amount increases or decreases with the price of the product. Example: A 10% tariff on imported TVs means a $1,000 TV incurs a $100 tariff. Usage: Commonly used for luxury goods, automobiles, and consumer electronics. 2️⃣ Specific Tariffs A specific tariff is a fixed fee charged per unit of imported goods, regardless of price. Example: $3 per barrel of imported oil. Usage: Often used for commodities like oil, wheat, and alcohol. 3️⃣ Compound Tariffs A compound tariff includes both a percentage-based tax (Ad valorem) and a fixed fee on imports (Specific). This means importers pay a fixed fee per unit as well as a percentage of the item’s value. Example: A 5% tax plus $2 per imported cheese wheel. Usage: Applied to goods where both quantity and value affect the market, such as food products and industrial materials. 4️⃣ Tariff-Rate Quotas (TRQs) A TRQ allows a limited quantity of an imported good to enter at a lower tariff rate. After the quota is reached, extra imports are taxed at a higher rate. Example: One of the most well-known examples of a TRQ is the U.S. Sugar Tariff-Rate Quota. The United States allows a certain quantity of sugar to be imported each year at a lower tariff rate. Any sugar imports within the quota limit are subject to a low tariff (e.g., 5%). However, once the quota is exceeded, any additional sugar imports face a much higher tariff (e.g., 20%). This system ensures that domestic sugar producers remain competitive while still allowing controlled imports to meet demand. Another example is the European Union's TRQ on Beef Imports. The EU permits a specific amount of high-quality beef imports (e.g., from the U.S. and Canada) at a lower tariff. Once this quota is filled, any additional beef imports are taxed at a significantly higher rate. This policy helps protect EU cattle farmers while maintaining trade agreements with international suppliers. 5️⃣ Protective Tariffs A protective tariff helps local industries by making imported goods more costly, reducing foreign competition. Example: The U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on Chinese steel to protect domestic steel manufacturers. Usage: Commonly used in industries facing strong foreign competition, such as steel, automotive, and textiles. 6️⃣ Revenue Tariffs A revenue tariff is mainly designed to raise money for the government, not to shield local industries. Example: In the 19th century, tariffs were the main source of revenue for the U.S. government before income taxes were introduced. Usage: Often applied to goods that do not have strong domestic competition but are widely consumed, such as alcohol and tobacco. ❓ Why Do Governments Impose Tariffs? 1️⃣ Protecting Domestic Industries Tariffs shield local businesses from cheaper foreign competitors, helping domestic industries grow. Example: U.S. steel tariffs in 2018 benefited domestic steel manufacturers. 2️⃣ Generating Government Revenue Before modern taxation systems, tariffs were a key source of revenue for governments. Example: In the 1800s, tariffs accounted for 90% of U.S. federal revenue. 3️⃣ National Security Concerns Some industries, like defense and technology, are crucial for national security, and governments impose tariffs to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers. Example: The U.S. limits imports of rare earth minerals to ensure a domestic supply chain for defense technologies. 4️⃣ Retaliation in Trade Wars Countries impose tariffs to address unfair trade practices or economic conflicts. For instance, during the trade war between the United States and China, both countries imposed taxes on each other's goods 5️⃣ Preventing Dumping Dumping occurs when a country exports goods at below-market prices to eliminate competition. Example: The U.S. imposed tariffs on Chinese solar panels due to concerns about dumping. ⚖️ Pros and Cons of Tariffs Pros ✅ Protects local jobs and industries ✅ Encourages domestic production ✅ Generates government revenue ✅ Enhances national security by reducing reliance on foreign goods Cons ❌ Increases prices for consumers ❌ Can lead to trade wars and economic retaliation ❌ Encourages inefficiency in domestic industries ❌ Disrupts global supply chains 📕 Historical and Modern Examples of Tariffs 1. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act (1930) The U.S. imposed tariffs on over 20k imported goods. Result: Other countries retaliated, global trade dropped by 66%, and the Great Depression worsened. 2. Trump’s Tariffs on China (2018-2020) The United States levied tariffs on $360 billion worth of Chinese goods. China retaliated, affecting U.S. agriculture exports. Result: Some U.S. industries benefited, but consumers faced higher prices. 3. The European Union’s Tariffs on U.S. Goods (2021) The EU imposed tariffs on American whiskey, motorcycles, and jeans in response to U.S. steel tariffs. Result: Brands like Harley-Davidson saw reduced sales in Europe. ⚙️ Tariffs vs. Free Trade: The Big Debate The debate between tariffs and free trade is a fundamental discussion in global economics and trade policy. This debate revolves around whether governments should impose tariffs (taxes on imported goods) or embrace free trade (minimal to no restrictions on imports and exports). ◉ Free Trade (No Tariffs) Free trade is the unrestricted movement of goods and services across borders without tariffs or other trade barriers. Advocates argue that it fosters economic efficiency and global cooperation. ✅✅ Advantages of Free Trade Lower Prices for Consumers – Without tariffs, imported goods are cheaper, leading to more affordable products. Increased Economic Growth – When countries trade freely, they specialize in what they do best, leading to higher productivity and economic expansion. More Competition = Better Products – Companies must compete on quality and innovation rather than relying on government protection. Stronger Global Relations – Open markets encourage cooperation between nations, reducing the risk of economic conflicts. Access to More Goods and Services – Consumers enjoy a greater variety of products at lower costs. ❌❌ Disadvantages of Free Trade Job Losses in Unprotected Industries – Domestic industries that can't compete with cheaper imports may shrink or shut down. Dependence on Foreign Suppliers – A country may become overly reliant on other nations for essential goods (e.g., medical supplies, electronics). Potential Trade Deficits – Countries that import more than they export may struggle with imbalances in trade. ◉ Protectionism (Using Tariffs) Protectionism refers to economic policies that restrict imports through tariffs, quotas, or other barriers to shield domestic industries from foreign competition. ✅✅ Advantages of Tariffs Protects Local Jobs and Industries – Domestic businesses have a better chance to compete without being undercut by cheaper imports. Reduces Dependence on Foreign Competitors – A country can maintain its own manufacturing and production capabilities, especially in critical industries like steel, energy, and food. Generates Government Revenue – Tariffs provide a source of income for governments, which can be reinvested in public services. Prevents Dumping – Tariffs discourage foreign companies from flooding the market with artificially cheap goods to destroy domestic competition. ❌❌ Disadvantages of Tariffs Higher Prices for Consumers – Since imported goods are taxed, businesses pass the extra costs to customers. Risk of Trade Wars – When one country imposes tariffs, others retaliate, leading to economic conflicts that hurt all parties involved. Encourages Inefficiency – Without foreign competition, domestic companies may become complacent and innovate less. Disrupts Global Supply Chains – Many industries rely on international suppliers; tariffs can increase production costs and delays. ❇️ The Future of Tariffs in a Globalized World As economies become more interconnected, tariffs are often seen as barriers to global trade. Emerging industries, such as digital services, face new trade policy challenges that traditional tariffs do not cover. With globalization, many nations favor free trade agreements (FTAs) like USMCA and the EU single market to reduce trade barriers. Climate-related tariffs, such as carbon border taxes, may become more common as nations try to incentivize environmentally friendly trade practices. 📌 Closing Thoughts Tariffs remain one of the most powerful - and controversial - tools in economic policy. Like a thermostat for trade, they can be adjusted to protect domestic industries, but risk overheating the economy with unintended consequences. History shows that while tariffs can provide temporary relief for specific sectors, they often create ripple effects across the entire economy. The steel tariffs of 2018 helped some American mills reopen, but made cars and appliances more expensive for everyone. Neither free trade nor tariffs are perfect solutions. A balanced approach, where tariffs are selectively used for strategic industries while promoting open markets in others, is often the best path. Each country must decide based on its economic strengths and priorities. For example, developed nations might push for free trade, while developing nations use tariffs to protect growing industries. As trade policies continue evolving, understanding tariffs gives citizens and businesses crucial insight into how globalization affects prices, jobs, and economic security. The debate isn't about whether tariffs are "good" or "bad," but rather when and how they should be used strategically. What are your thoughts on the ongoing U.S. tariff war? Share your opinions in the comments! 📩
SP:SPXEducation
by johntradingwick
Are These the Three Black Crows Signaling More Pain Ahead? The S&P 500 has just printed three consecutive long-bodied red candles following a brief uptrend. This classic "Three Black Crows" formation could be a powerful bearish reversal signal—one that historically hints at a deeper correction on the horizon. 📊 What does this pattern mean? Appears after an uptrend or rally. Consists of 3 bearish candles closing near their lows. Suggests strong seller control and trend reversal potential. 🔍 Current context: The S&P is already under heavy pressure from macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns. This pattern adds further bearish sentiment, especially if we see continued follow-through on volume. 🚨 If confirmed, we could be looking at the continuation of a larger downtrend. But remember: confirmation is key. Watch closely how price reacts in the next 1–2 sessions. 🧠 Do you see this as a real warning—or just a pause before the next leg up? #SP500 #ThreeBlackCrows #CandlestickPatterns #BearishSignal #TechnicalAnalysis
VANTAGE:SP500FTShort
by SmartSignalss
S&P 500 Faces Increased Bearish Pressure as Trade War BeginsThe S&P 500 has formed a downtrend channel following the break below the 5700 support level. Trump's new aggressive tariff policy raised the minimum tariff on China to 54%, while China responded with equally aggressive 34% tariffs. The trade war has now officially begun. This escalation is clearly negative for the stock market. Recession risks have risen significantly, and it remains uncertain how much the Fed can cut rates while tariff-driven inflationary pressures persist. Rapid rate cuts could help soften the slowdown but may also risk fueling another inflation surge. That would be the more optimistic case for equities. However, the Fed is likely to proceed cautiously, suggesting that bearish pressure could continue for several quarters. In the short term, the downward trend remains intact. If the S&P 500 breaks the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, it may decline further toward the lower boundary of the new trend channel, where a potential bounce could occur. As long as the trend holds, bears remain in control. Note: Powell is expected to speak today. His remarks carry even more weight following the tariff moves by both the U.S. and China.
SP:SPXShort
by ftdsystem
Hank Tough - Long ride down to 4,514 for US500Even with better than expect numbers with NFP. The matter remains that the world is not on great terms with MAGAs Tariff plan. Tariffs are in an indirect way a threat when it comes to trade wars. Because, there'll need to be reciprocals and larger measures to make up for the mess. Apparently, the calculations of the tariffs was to make up for the trade deficit, but it means that there'll need to ACTUALLY be the same amount or more of exports - which we know won't happen as there are two types of goods. Elastic - Where the price and demand and supply changes. Inelastic - where they a don't change much. Right now there is a LARGE Inverse Cup and Handle forming on the daily with the price below 20 and 200 - showing strong downside to come. So, we can expect looking at the pattern to continue to 4,514. 'Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Thoughts?
TRADENATIONSB:US500Short
by Timonrosso
S&P 500 correction before the global fall.S&P 500 correction before the global fall of the usa stock market. Hey traders! I’m sure many of you have noticed that after the introduction of retaliatory tariffs, the markets started getting pretty choppy. The S&P 500 took a serious dive. • On the weekly chart, I’ve marked a support level + the 161.8% Fibonacci level, where we might see a bounce back to the $5680–$5800 range. • But from there, I think we could see the start of a major crash—both in equities and crypto—that could last 1–2 years. • Based on my estimates, the S&P 500 could drop back to 2020–2021 levels, a wide range of 2200–3000. • For Bitcoin, we’re talking around $5000; for Ethereum, $100–$300; and for Solana, $2–$12. 3D Chart: 3W Chart: Real-world events that could tank the stock market this hard: Global Recession: If major economies (US, China, EU) slide into a recession at the same time—think trade wars, rampant inflation, or a debt crisis—investors will dump risky assets like hot potatoes. Trade War Escalation: Harsher tariffs between the US and China/EU could wreck supply chains, crush corporate earnings, and spark a full-on market panic. Geopolitical Conflict: A big blow-up—like a full-scale war or crisis (say, Taiwan or the Middle East)—could send capital fleeing to safe havens (gold, bonds), while stocks and crypto get slaughtered. Collapse of a Major Financial Player: If a big bank or hedge fund goes bust (Lehman Brothers 2.0-style) due to an overheated market or bad debt, it could trigger a domino effect. Energy Crisis: A spike in oil/gas prices (from sanctions or conflicts, for example) could kneecap the economy and drag risk assets down with it. Market Bubble Burst: If the current rally turns out to be a massive bubble (and plenty of folks think it is), its pop could pull indexes down all on its own. Looming Wars: A potential Russia-Europe war starting as early as 2025, or an Iran-Israel conflict that drags in multiple nations, could destabilize global markets, spike energy prices, and send investors running for the exits.
VANTAGE:SP500Long
by SergioRichi
No Bottom in the S&P 500 Yet!Unsurprisingly, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX Index) – one of the most popular measures of US stock market volatility – recently shook hands with 30.00, levels not seen since August 2024. As a result, I am closely monitoring the daily charts of the VIX (with standard Bollinger Bands overlaid) and the S&P 500. As shown on the charts, the VIX closed above the upper Bollinger Band, signalling that sentiment could be overstretched and may revert to the mean. Consequently, as on many occasions in the past, this suggests that S&P 500 bulls may attempt to step in. However, chart studies reveal support is not evident until 5,190, which happens to be joined by a 100% projection ratio at 5,152 (an equal AB=CD support pattern). Interestingly, this indicates that further underperformance and higher VIX levels could be on the table before we see signs of a reversal. Written by FP Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron Hill
SP:SPXShort
by FPMarkets
Are Time and Reason in Harmony in SPX?Are Time and Reason in Harmony in SPX? S&P 1D Technical and Fundamental Analysis; This structure, which looks like an ordinary decline on the SPX daily chart ... in fact, we can say that it carries the pieces of a big scenario that develops synchronously both technically and fundamentally. Let me explain now; 5 December 2024 was not just a breaking point. Because Trump's statements after taking the presidency for the second time, especially the message that ‘customs walls may rise’ had become clear. In the same week, the uptrend in SPX quickly weakened and declined as the FED gave the message ‘Interest rate cut is not imminent’. From here, Bullish Sharq started the formation of harmonic formation. Now comes the week of 1 May. - FED's interest rate decision, - Trump's budget plan, - And one of the critical macro thresholds where company balance sheets are announced. While everything is going well so far, if we take into account that the chart will also touch a strong trend line, it may mean ‘either a bounce or a collapse from here’. Because the price in the market does not just move, it looks for reasons . I would also like to ask you here; What will greet the market when this date comes? Harsh interest rate rhetoric? Trump's aggressive economic agenda? Or a recovery supported by positive balance sheets?
CBOE:SPX
by ugurtash
Tariffs Drop, SPX Slips, I Sip TeaTariffs Drop, SPX Slips, I Sip Tea | SPX Analysis 04 April 2025 Tariffs are back on the menu, and Wall Street’s not exactly throwing confetti. Trump’s talking tough again, markets are wincing, gold is surging, and Bitcoin - being Bitcoin - couldn’t care less. But me? I’m grinning like the cat that shorted the cream. The plan said: Stay bearish below 5700. Get aggressive below 5500. Add bear pulse bars and Tag ‘n Turn entries on any decent rally. That wasn’t guesswork. That was structure. And so far, it’s working like clockwork. ⏰ My income swings are ticking over nicely, I’m not rushing anything, and I’m sipping tea while stocks tumble. If we continue this slide into Friday, I’ll be adding more with a gleam in my eye and a sneaky Newton quote at the ready… --- Gravity's Pull – And A Little Newtonian Swagger Overnight futures are down again - not panic-sell levels, but that smooth, sinister kind of selling we like to see when we’re positioned right. If the market decides to tumble out the apple tree altogether? You’ll hear me shouting: "HOW DO YOU LIKE THEM THERE APPLES?" And rightly so - because this isn’t luck. It’s directional structure meets mechanical setups, seasoned with a little GEX wizardry. --- Expert Insights – Trade the Plan, Not the Panic When headlines scream, traders often get twitchy. But this week is proving (again) that reaction is no match for preparation. ✅ Bear swings don’t need news. They just need structure. ✅ Sell the rallies – not your conviction. ✅ GEX often shows you where the market might want to pin – and when you can hit that sweet spot with a Bulls Eye butterfly, the payoff is huge. The secret? Plan the trade. Execute with structure. And don’t flinch. --- Fun Fact Sir Isaac Newton – the original gravity guy – lost over £20,000 (millions today) in the South Sea Bubble of 1720. His famous quote? “I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.” He’d have loved the GEX data. And probably traded options too. (With a monocle. While sipping tea.) Happy trading, Phil Less Brain, More Gain …and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece p.s. Ready to Profit While Others Panic? Markets are flinching. Most traders are reacting. But the SPX Income System? It’s executing. Like a machine. ✅ Sell the rallies ✅ Tag the turns ✅ Bank income swings without flinching Join the Fast Forward Mentorship – trade live, twice a week, with me and the crew. PLUS Monthly on-demand 1-2-1's Or watch the free training to see the SPX Income System in action. No fluff. Just profits, pulse bars, and patterns that actually work. LINK IN BIO
SP:SPXShort
by MrPhilNewton
SPX In Free Fall. How Much More Pain Do We Have Coming?Hey my fellow traders and followers, hope all is well with you and your trading? Let me shed some light on the dark times ahead. I know some of you are asking ; How much more pain do we have to endure? Well, I'm here to give my opinion on what I see in the daily SPX/USD chart. Like it or not we have another leg down to go. Sorry. We have on the chart a Head & Shoulder, or Inverted V pattern, Bearflag pattern after the first round of distribution. Second distribution will show in another leg down to 5343.4 area which will be our TP-1. TP-2 is ready for it?------ 4981 area. Long ways to go yet. I see this playing out until anywhere from April 23 to April 30th. Whether you want to believe this possibility or not, please be careful with your bias. Remember the Daily and Weekly are still bearish so understand the depth we can fall. My job is to tip you off on what is possible. Until next time please trade carefully if you choose as the market is in wide wide price swings that keep hitting retail trader's stops in both directions. If you are going to trade, trade the smaller TF's to avoid blowing up your account. Best of luck in all your trades. Cheers!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Trade-Farmer
TrumpFall in the Market due to Reciprocal Tariffs.By Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades The announcement of new reciprocal tariffs by President Donald Trump has triggered an immediate reaction in the markets, causing dizzying drops in various companies since the beginning of the week. The measure has generated an environment of high volatility, with investors seeking refuge in the face of growing instability. Most Affected Companies and Sectors - Technology and Semiconductors • Apple Inc. has seen its shares fall by more than 15% during the week, affected by its dependence on global supply chains. • Amazon and Meta: Both tech giants have seen declines of about 9%, driven by fears over international exposure and rising tariff costs. • Nvidia and other companies in the semiconductor sector: They have posted even larger declines, reflecting this sector's sensitivity to trade uncertainty. - Automotive and Aerospace • Tesla Inc.: The electric vehicle maker has plunged nearly 20%, driven by concerns about rising production costs and competition from local manufacturing. • Boeing Co: Shares have fallen around 18% on concerns about potential disruptions to its supply chain and the impact of new trade barriers. - Industrials and Conglomerates • General Electric: The conglomerate has seen its share price fall by around 16%, as its extensive global operations are threatened by the tightening of trade policies. - Transportation & Logistics • AP Moller Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd: The shipping companies have suffered sharp declines, reflecting the sector's sensitivity to global trade dynamics and tariff measures. - Energy • Chevron and TotalEnergies: Oil prices have fallen by 5% following the unexpected increase in supply by OPEC+, causing significant losses for these oil companies, which are facing an environment of uncertainty and adjustments in the energy markets. - Financial Sector • Asian Banks: Although no specific names are mentioned, several banks in Asia have experienced pronounced volatility, being affected by the environment of uncertainty and concerns about asset quality in the region. • Small cap indices: The Russell 2000, which groups smaller U.S. companies, has fallen 6.6% and accumulated a loss of over 20% since its record high in November, also reflecting the sensitivity of the financial sector in the current environment. S&P500 Analysis Looking at the one hour chart we can see that since April 2nd, a lower bell curve has already started, despite the fact that the Price Control Point (POC) is located in the area where it was trading in the early hours of yesterday's Asian trading day at around 5624 points. This fall related to the news has caused the markets to discount the price by -6.84% and around 2.34% at yesterday's American opening. As soon as the U.S. session began, the conditions were in place again to continue the fall that seemed to have slowed down during the European day, but it was only a bearish consolidation. At this moment, the US premarket seems to have stopped the fall that generated a third bell in the Asian session. Checking the RSI, it has moved from 70% on Wednesday at 18:00 to 23% in today's Asian session. So it could be that today's day will not be as black as yesterday's, but for the moment the bearish mid-range crossover started on Wednesday has only expanded. As for the average volume on both day 2 and 3 the volume has been similar to the openings of other days, so in this sense it is not something that can reveal additional information but only represents that this fall is the result of the “power of fear of tariffs in the market”. A Global Landscape of Uncertainty Trump's announcement has generated a ripple effect in international markets. In the United States, investors are skeptical about the economy's ability to withstand these shocks, which has prompted a search for refuge in assets considered safer, such as Treasury bonds and defensive sectors (consumer staples, healthcare, telecommunications and utilities). Uncertainty is spreading globally: the Nasdaq has fallen by 5.4% and the Nasdaq 100 has lost 17% of its value since its peak in February. In international markets, indices such as the Nikkei 225 and the TOPIX in Japan have registered declines of 3.3% and 4.2% respectively, demonstrating the global scope of the instability. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:USA500Short
by ActivTrades
Head & Shoulder Breakdown: Will S&P 500 Drop Another 10%?● The S&P 500 has experienced significant volatility recently, mainly due to President Donald Trump's announcement of new tariffs. ● On April 3, 2025, the index saw a nearly 5% drop, its worst single-day loss in five years. ● The recent price action suggests that the index has broken below the neckline of the Head and Shoulder pattern, indicating a potential continuation of the downward trend. ◉ Key support levels to watch ● 1st Support - 5,200 - 5,250 ● 2nd Support - 4,950 - 5,000
SP:SPXShort
by NaranjCapital
SPX: When things get scary, get ready!Wave C of 4 is ongoing and quite emotional. Wave B didn't quite get high enough, so chance of a larger C wave is high. This could last for a few days to a few months depending on how long this trade shenanigans continue. But, ultimately I don't think this will be a permanent situation and once things settle, markets will recover strongly. The underlying economic strength is still intact and there is still a lot of money in the system. If the Fed does start to cut the interest rates, it will initially boost the stock market but will weaken the economic conditions significantly. That might play out the final blow off top narrative perfectly. But for now, plan is to start nibbling on SPY when SPX gets inside the box. Some kind of butterfly strategy to limit the downside risk would be the play. Below 4100 will be the time to really panic!
SP:SPXShort
by mukit1
Trump Goes 'Cynosure' of All Eyes as He Walked Into '1930' RoomThe Striking Parallels Between Trump's 2025 Tariffs and the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 The recent trade policies under President Trump's second administration bear remarkable similarities to the controversial Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, both in approach and potential consequences. These parallels offer important historical lessons about protectionist trade policies. Protectionist Foundations and Scope Both trade initiatives share fundamentally protectionist motivations aimed at shielding American industries from foreign competition. The Smoot-Hawley Act increased import duties by approximately 20% with the initial goal of protecting struggling U.S. farmers from European agricultural imports. Similarly, Trump's 2025 trade agenda explicitly aims at "backing the United States away from integration with the global economy and steering the country toward becoming more self-contained". What began as targeted protections in both eras quickly expanded in scope. While Smoot-Hawley initially focused on agricultural protections, industry lobbyists soon demanded similar protections for their sectors. Trump's tariffs have followed a comparable pattern, beginning with specific sectors but rapidly expanding to affect a broad range of imports, with projected tariffs exceeding $1.4 trillion by April 2025—nearly four times the $380 billion imposed during his first administration. Specific Tariff Examples The parallel implementation approaches are notable: Trump imposed a 25% global tariff on steel and aluminum products effective March 12, 2025 Trump raised tariffs on all Chinese imports to 20% on March 4, 2025 Trump imposed 25% tariffs on most Canadian and Mexican goods Smoot-Hawley increased overall import duties by approximately 20% Smoot-Hawley raised the average import tax on foreign goods to about 40% (following the Fordney-McCumber Act of 1922) Global Retaliation and Economic Consequences Perhaps the most striking similarity is the international backlash. The Smoot-Hawley tariffs triggered retaliatory measures from over 25 countries, dramatically reducing global trade and worsening the Great Depression. Trump's 2025 tariffs have already prompted counter-tariffs from major trading partners: China responded with 15% tariffs on U.S. coal and liquefied natural gas, and 10% on oil and agricultural machines Canada implemented 25% tariffs on approximately CA$30 billion of U.S. goods The European Union announced tariffs on €4.5 billion of U.S. consumer goods and €18 billion of U.S. steel and agricultural products Expert Opposition Both policies faced significant opposition from economic experts. More than 1,000 economists urged President Hoover to veto the Smoot-Hawley Act. Trump's 2025 tariffs? Reaction is coming yet... Potential Economic Impact The historical record suggests caution. The Smoot-Hawley Act is "now widely blamed for worsening the severity of the Great Depression in the U.S. and around the world". Trump's "more audacious intervention" similarly carries "potentially seismic consequences for jobs, prices, diplomatic relations and the global trading system". These striking parallels between trade policies nearly a century apart demonstrate that economic nationalism and retaliatory trade cycles remain persistent challenges in international commerce, with historical lessons that remain relevant today. Stock market Impact Just watch the graph.. -- Best wishes, Your Beloved @PandorraResearch Team 😎
SP:SPX
by PandorraResearch