AUD/USD $AUDUSD update M1 D1 H4 - NO shorts in 2025Monthly SFP + Weakness of the main currency
Forget about short positions for the next year
This might be the best entry point for long of the year
H4
Without closing the imbalance, they shouldn't go up, so I expect such a scenario
Based on all the data, I expect a local strengthening of the dollar in May and only growth after that
Best regards, EXCAVO
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
USDAUD trade ideas
AUDUSD Wyckoff RedistributionThe pair seems as if it may be looking to continue the downtrend. I have identified a possible redistribution pattern. The recent "upthrust" could be the last up move that is typically used to trap buyers. Could be too soon to tell but keep an eye on price falling back under resistance and preliminary supply on strong sell volume for confirmation.
AUDUSD D1 I Bearish Reversal Based on the D1 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry level at 0.6493, a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 127.2% Fibo extension
Our take profit is set at 0.6325, a pullback support.
The stop loss is set at 0.6652, an overlap resistance.
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Bullish continuation?The Aussie (AUD/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance which lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Pivot: 0.6328
1st Support: 0.6206
1st Resistance: 0.6537
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Week of 4/20/25: AUDUSD AnalysisWeekly and daily candles are consecutively bullish with a V-shape recovery to the upside. Looking for longs and especially keeping an eye out for the 1H POI flip-zone that I refined in the 4H POI.
Unless 1H internal structure shifts bearish, I am long ALL THE WAY!
Major News:
PMI - Wednesday
Unemployment - Thursday
Thanks for tuning in, have a great week.
AUDUSD: Consolidation Near Key ResistanceIn the previous analysis, the decline toward the 0.60 support was accurately predicted, followed by a rebound from the identified zone. After a sharp rally, a corrective move is not unexpected. With the price now approaching the 0.64 supply zone, a pullback toward 0.63 or lower is likely. However, if the 0.64 resistance is broken, the next bullish target would be 0.65, as illustrated in the chart scenario.
AUDUSD - Resistance Test Points to Imminent Price CorrectionThe AUD/USD pair has shown impressive upside momentum in recent days, recovering sharply from its early April lows near 0.5900 to now testing the key resistance zone highlighted in blue around 0.6400. After such a substantial rally of approximately 500 pips, technical indicators suggest the pair is becoming overextended in the short term. We anticipate a corrective pullback as price encounters this significant resistance level, which previously acted as support in mid-March. This correction would be a healthy development within the broader market structure, potentially setting up better entry opportunities for those still bullish on the Australian dollar in the medium term.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Weekly Analysis for AUD/USD📊 Weekly Analysis for AUD/USD
🔍 Technical Outlook by Shaker Trading
✅ Reasons for the Bearish Outlook:
Descending Price Channel:
The pair is clearly moving within a downward channel, reflecting continued bearish pressure in the medium to long term.
Overbought Signals on Indicators:
Both RSI and MACD are showing overbought conditions, suggesting a possible reversal from current levels.
Strong Supply Zones:
Price has entered into major supply zones that are likely to act as resistance and push the price downward.
📌 Trading Idea:
As long as the price remains below the supply zone and inside the descending channel, the bearish bias remains valid.
Best sell opportunities are expected from the upper resistance areas highlighted on the chart.
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AUD/USD H4 AnalysisAfter multiple rejections of 0.5950, we saw a huge stimulus of buying which has now taken price up to the 0.6400 zone.
We have recently seen rejections in this area, and what is noticeable is that the most recent price action appears to be slowing down, with the higher highs and lows not significantly advancing.
Is this a sign to exit any buy positions and anticipate sells?
This is an idea of what may happen. You should always trade with a well tested and profitable trading strategy using good risk management.
AUDUSD(20250418)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, the seventh rate cut in the past year, and this decision was unanimous.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries: 0.6369
Support and resistance levels:
0.6430
0.6407
0.6392
0.6346
0.6331
0.6309
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 0.6392, consider buying, the first target price is 0.6407
If the price breaks through 0.6369, consider selling, the first target price is 0.6346
AUDUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W18 D18 Y25AUDUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W18 D18 Y25
Fun Coupon Friday !
SUMMARY
- IMO, if this shorts, it's a slippy slide !
- Daily order block setup
- Daily highs confluence
- Weekly 50 Ema forecast to provide resistance for the short.
- Required to await 15' breaks of structure as price is bullish/ ranging at the moment .
- upon intra day breaks of structure, anticipating a creation of 15' order block to provide an area of interest to short from.
FRGNT X
AUDUSD: Hidden Institutional Supply Zone in Play 6H Technical Outlook 🧠📉
Hidden Institutional Supply Zone in Play – Potential Short Opportunity Developing
INSTITUTIONAL SUPPLY ZONE – 6H
🔴 Resistance (Distal): 0.64086
🟧 Resistance (Major): 0.63971
🟠 Resistance (Proximal): 0.63914
CHART CONTEXT
Price action (PA) has tapped directly into the defined Institutional Supply Zone , showing hesitation to close above 0.64086, the Distal Resistance Line —a red flag for bulls, green light for institutional bears.
SELL SETUP: HIGH-PROBABILITY IF 0.64086 HOLDS 🧨
Current PA is stalling beneath supply zone boundaries.
0.64086 is acting as the final line of defense; if unbroken on a closing basis, we maintain strong bearish bias.
Stacked SELL ORDERS from 0.63842 to 0.63347.
DOWNSIDE TARGETS (IF SHORT TRIGGERS) 🎯
TP 1 → 0.62405
TP 2 → 0.61613 (Mid Pivot)
TP 3 → 0.61030
TP 4 → 0.60129
UPSIDE INVALIDATION LEVEL 🛑
Stoploss above 0.64086 — strong close above this level invalidates short scenario.
SUMMARY 🔍
If 0.64086 holds firm and PA fails to close above this institutional supply zone, we anticipate high probability of a sell-off from current levels. This aligns with the broader downtrend structure and stacked sell-side liquidity
💡 Alert Setup:
SL: 0.64086
SELL LIMIT 1: 0.63842
SELL LIMIT 2: 0.63347
TP: 0.62405 → 0.60129
LTF DistributionContinuation of previous post :
1H Range starts off this schematic by stopping the momentum at the point of the first secondary test, it fails to break the previous high and this markets goes from moving up to sideways into this TR. Each rally to previous highs reflects upside effort increasing, but upside result is decreasing indicating buyers weakness near this level. uE>, uR< = bearish indicator.
Favorable bearish confirmation would be a lower high, paired with high buy volume confirming the shift to bearish market.
AUDUSD AUDUSD SELL ANALYSIS UPDATE. 4 HR LOOKING GREAT
For traders who have entered short positions based , derived by the hourly strong resistance level, the 4 hour downtrend, the previous recent lower low, the overbought RSI, and a few other indicators used.
Conversely, while the primary focus is on sell opportunities due to the overarching downtrend, potential long positions would require more significant confirming signals. These confirmations may include [ a break and close above a key resistance level, bullish divergence on a specific indicator, positive fundamentals and a LOCK.
Further detailed analysis and real-time updates are available just send a message or leave a comment!
AUDUSD 30M CHART PATTERNThis chart is for the AUD/USD currency pair on a 30-minute timeframe. It appears to be a double top pattern, which is typically a bearish reversal pattern. Here's a breakdown of the strategy implied in the chart:
Key Elements:
Double Top (Red Arrows): Indicates a strong resistance zone around the 0.6389 area.
Neckline (Blue Horizontal Line): Around 0.637
AUD/USD – Swing Short from Resistance | Daily RangeI'm placing a sell limit order on AUD/USD at a key resistance level, with a take profit set at the bottom of the current daily range. This is a swing trade based on both technical structure and fundamental reasoning.
Technically, price has been moving in a consolidation range on the daily chart, trading between the EMA 100 and EMA 200, which often signals indecision and potential reversal zones. The resistance I'm targeting has acted as a ceiling within this range.
From a fundamental perspective, the USD has been under prolonged pressure due to political uncertainty and weakening investor confidence in the U.S. economy. However, this bearish momentum may be overextended — the DXY (Dollar Index) is currently testing the 99.600 level, a significant historical support. A potential bounce from this zone could bring USD strength back into the picture, increasing the probability of a reversal in AUD/USD.
This trade idea aligns a technical resistance rejection with a possible USD recovery, making it a high-probability short setup in the current market context
Trading AUDUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 15/04/2025Tuesday's price action on FX:AUDUSD , we got a textbook Judas Swing play and for those still getting used to spotting these setups in real-time, let’s break this one down and talk through what happened and more importantly, why it happened.
Going into the session open, we had a relatively tight consolidation, with the 00:00 - 08:30est range acting as a container for liquidity. Price had built up liquidity at the high and low of the zone. Whichever side gets swept first will determine our directional bias for the session
Just after the session began, we saw price aggressively push up taking out the buy side liquidity resting above those early highs. This is what is called the "Judas move", a false breakout meant to trap breakout buyers and entice liquidity into the market. This move is not random. It’s designed to induce traders into the wrong side of the market before the real direction reveals itself
As soon as that liquidity grab was complete, we noticed price begin to stall and form a shift in market structure. This is critical. Once you see a break of structure to the downside, followed by a lower high into a FVG, that’s your confirmation that the real move, the sell-off is in play. We then saw clean displacement to the downside, confirming the manipulation phase was over
Now we wait for a retracement into the Fair Value Gap (FVG). We'll only look to execute a trade once a candle enters the FVG and closes. After a few minutes of waiting, price finally retraced into the FVG, giving us the green light to execute the trade.
Entry: 0.63749
Stop loss: 0.63849
Take profit: 0.63549
This FX:AUDUSD trade gave us a smooth ride with minimal drawdown. Right after entry price moved swiftly into profit. Although there was a brief retrace back to our entry point, it quickly corrected, and we were back in the green. With just a 1% risk, the trade delivered a solid 2% return all within 1 hour and 20 minutes
This setup is an excellent example of why you don’t want to chase early session breakouts blindly. The Judas Swing strategy teaches us to look for the trap, wait for confirmation, and then trade in alignment with the real intention behind price. Beginners often get caught up in the initial move, thinking it’s the real trend. But if you can slow down, understand the time of day, the draw on liquidity, and the reaction around key highs/lows, you’ll start to see how often price manipulates before delivering.
AUD/USD) Resistance level pullback Short Read The ChaptianSMC Trading point update
analysis of the AUD/USD pair on the 2-hour timeframe, showing a possible bearish setup. Here's a breakdown of the idea behind it:
Key Observations:
1. Current Trend:
The pair was in an uptrend, as indicated by the rising channel (parallel trendlines). However, it has now broken out of that channel.
2. Resistance Level:
The price has reached a resistance zone around 0.64000, and it seems to be rejecting this level.
3. 2 Timeframe Demand Zone:
Around the 0.63300 – 0.63400 range, this area previously acted as a demand zone (support), and the chart suggests price might retest it.
4. Projected Move:
First, a pullback up into the resistance zone could occur.
Then a drop to the demand zone.
If the demand zone fails to hold, the price could head down toward the key support/FVG (Fair Value Gap) around 0.61000 – 0.61500.
5. EMA (200):
The 200 EMA is below the price, suggesting longer-term bullish pressure, but it's starting to flatten, which could signal weakness in the uptrend.
6. RSI Indicator:
RSI is around 52, showing neutral momentum—neither overbought nor oversold, allowing room for movement in either direction.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Idea Summary:
The chart suggests a potential reversal from the uptrend into a downtrend, triggered by a failure to break above resistance. The two key targets for a bearish move are:
First: the 2TF demand zone
Final: the key support/FVG zone
Pales support boost 🚀 analysis follow)