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USDAUD trade ideas

Could the price reverse from here?AUD/USD is reacting off the pivot, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could drop the 1st support. Pivot: 0.6537 1st Support: 0.6359 1st Resistance: 0.6680 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
AUDUSDAUD/USD Exchange Rate Current Level: 0.6530–0.6550 Slightly bearish near-term bias amid RBA rate cut expectations Australia 10-Year Government Bond Yield Current Yield: 4.15% (as of June 30, 2025) Rose 0.01 percentage points from the previous session. Reflects market reaction to RBA policy and global trade uncertainty. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Rate Current Cash Rate: 3.85% (lowest in two years) Cut by 25 bps in May 2025 to combat slowing growth and align with 2–3% inflation targets. Markets price a 90% probability of another 25 bps cut in July 2025. US Federal Reserve (Fed) Rate Current Federal Funds Rate: 4.25–4.50% Unchanged since December 2024; held steady at the June 18, 2025, meeting. Fed signaled potential for two 25 bps cuts in late 2025 (September/December), contingent on inflation cooling. Key Implications Rate Differential: RBA-Fed spread: –0.40% to –0.65% (AUD negative), pressuring AUD/USD. Australia’s 10Y yield premium over US 10Y (~4.26%) is –0.11%, reducing AUD carry appeal. AUD/USD Drivers: RBA Easing: Expected July cut may weaken AUD further. Fed Patience: Delayed cuts sustain USD strength. Yield Sensitivity: Narrowing yield spreads limit AUD upside. In summary: AUD/USD trades near 0.6530–0.6550, pressured by RBA-Fed policy divergence and narrowing yield spreads. The RBA’s dovish path (3.85% rate, July cut expected) contrasts with the Fed’s hold at 4.25–4.50%, sustaining USD strength. Australia’s 10Y yield at 4.15% offers minimal premium over US Treasuries, limiting AUD support. #AUDUSD
by Shavyfxhub
1
AUDUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W26 D26 Y25AUDUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W26 D26 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅Daily order block ✅1H Order block ✅Intraday breaks of structure ✅4H Order block 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Short
by JCFRGNT
AUDUSD Analysis – Falling from the Rising WedgeAUDUSD pair broke below an ascending wedge, a bearish reversal pattern. Clean rejection from 0.6518, with lower highs and new lower lows confirming bearish momentum. Price is now sitting below former trendline support, retested and respected as resistance. Bearish target points toward 0.6400–0.6380 zone, aligning with recent swing lows. Risk invalidation sits above 0.6520, where structure fails. Technical Bias: Bearish Target: 0.6400 Stop-loss zone: Above 0.6520 📊 Current Bias: Bearish 🔍 Key Fundamentals Driving AUDUSD AUD Fundamentals (Weakening): Australian jobs data was mixed, and wage growth has plateaued. RBA remains cautious, with expectations for rate cuts later in 2025. AUD pressured by China growth risks and weak commodity demand. Geopolitical drag: Australia-China tensions and weak Chinese retail data from 618 Festival dampen AUD outlook. USD Fundamentals (Resilient): USD remains bid on risk-off flows, especially after weak global data and ongoing Middle East tensions. Fed remains reluctant to cut fast despite disinflation signs – supports the USD. US data is mixed, but rate cut odds are declining (only one expected in 2025 now per dot plot). ⚠️ Risks to This Bearish View If China announces new stimulus, AUD could rebound sharply. A dovish surprise from the Fed (e.g. Powell softening in speeches). Sharp rebound in risk appetite (e.g. tech-led equity rally). 🗓️ Important Events to Watch 🇨🇳 China industrial profits & PMIs 🇦🇺 RBA Meeting Minutes (July preview hints) 🇺🇸 US Core PCE (June 28) Global risk tone: watch metals, equities, and geopolitical headlines. 🚀 Which Asset Leads? AUDUSD is lagging other USD pairs, but will likely lead commodity FX downside if China or metals weaken further. Watch AUDJPY and EURAUD for further confirmation of risk-off flows and Aussie weakness.
Short
by ultreosforex
18
Short trade 1Hr TF overview 🔻 Trade Journal Entry – Sell-side Trade 📍 Pair: AUDUSD 📅 Date: Wednesday, June 25, 2025 🕒 Time: 5:00 AM (London Session AM) ⏱ Time Frame: 1 Hour 📉 Direction: Sell-side 📊 Trade Breakdown: Metric Value Entry Price 0.64939 Profit Level 0.64393 (−0.84%) Stop Loss 0.65091 (+0.23%) Risk-Reward Ratio 3.59 1 🧠 Context / Trade Notes: Premium Pricing at OB Rejection: Price entered the premium zone and tapped a 1HR bearish order block, offering a clean entry for short positioning.
Short
by davidjulien369
AUSSIE BANK ROBBERY: AUD/USD Bullish Breakout Confirmed!🔥 AUD/USD BANK HEIST: The Ultimate Bullish Robbery Plan (Thief Trading Style) 🔥 🌟 ATTENTION, MONEY MAKERS & MARKET ROBBERS! 🌟 💸 MISSION BRIEF: Based on Thief Trading Style (technical + fundamental analysis), we’re executing a bullish heist on AUD/USD ("The Aussie")—time to steal those pips like a pro! 📈 ENTRY STRATEGY (The Heist Begins!) Long Entry Trigger: Wait for Dynamic Resistance MA crossover + candle close above 0.65300 (bullish confirmation). Pro Tip: Use Buy Stop orders above MA or Buy Limit orders on pullbacks (15m/30m timeframe). 🔔 SET AN ALERT! Don’t miss the breakout—alert up, gloves on! 🛑 STOP LOSS (Protect Your Loot!) "Yo, rookie! 🗣️ If you’re entering on breakout, DO NOT set SL before confirmation! 📍 Thief SL Placement: Nearest 4H swing low (0.64800)—adjust based on your risk, lot size, & trade multiples. ⚠️ Warning: Deviate at your own peril—your risk, your rules! 🎯 TARGET (Cash Out & Run!) Take Profit Zone: 0.65800 Scalpers: Long-only plays! Use trailing SL to lock profits. Swing Traders: Ride the wave—big money moves require patience! 📰 FUNDAMENTAL BACKUP (Know Why We Robbin’!) Bullish momentum fueled by macro trends, COT data, sentiment shifts. 🚨 Breaking News Alert: Avoid high-impact news spikes—trail SL or stay out! 💥 BOOST THE HEIST! Hit 👍 LIKE, 🔄 SHARE & 🚀 BOOST—strengthen the robbery squad! More heists = more profits! 🤑 NEXT HEIST COMING SOON… STAY TUNED! 🐱‍👤
Long
by Thief_Trader
AUDUSD Eyes Further Upside After BreakoutAUDUSD has confirmed a breakout above both the descending trendline and EMA confluence (34 and 89), with the price now stabilizing above a strong support zone near 0.6478. This zone also aligns with the breakout retest and trendline flip, reinforcing it as a bullish base. With price holding above this key structure, the path of least resistance remains to the upside. The immediate target lies near the 1D resistance at 0.6571. If bullish momentum persists, a continued move toward higher highs could follow. As long as price stays above 0.6478, the bullish outlook remains valid.
Long
by Edward_TradingFX
AUD/USD Parallel Channel Setup – Breakout or Pullback in PlayThe AUD/USD pair is trading within a clearly defined ascending parallel channel, with consistent rejections from both the upper resistance zone near 0.6550–0.6560 and repeated bounces from the rising support area near 0.6390–0.6400. This structured price movement indicates strong channel discipline, which traders can use for high-probability breakouts or reversal plays. The current price action is approaching the upper boundary of the resistance, and a decisive breakout here could lead to a bullish rally toward the projected target. 📈 Bullish Breakout Scenario If the price breaks and closes above the resistance zone (above 0.6560), it will confirm a bullish breakout from the channel. Based on the height of the channel, the projected breakout target is 0.67365, which is derived by measuring the vertical distance between support and resistance and projecting it upward from the breakout point. This could signal a major trend continuation in favor of the bulls. 📉 Bearish Rejection Scenario If the price once again gets rejected at the resistance zone, a corrective move is expected toward the support area around 0.6400. The structure suggests that unless a breakout occurs, price may continue to oscillate within the rising channel. The next bearish leg could form a lower high and test the trendline support again. 🧭 Trading Strategy Outlook Buy Breakout Strategy: Entry: Above 0.6560 SL: Below breakout candle TP: 0.67365 (projected target) Sell Rejection Strategy: Entry: Near 0.6550 resistance SL: Above 0.6570 TP: 0.6400 support zone This is a neutral-to-bullish setup, with a potential for continuation if the resistance breaks with strength. Traders should wait for confirmation before entering. ================================================================= Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. =================================================================
by TradZoo
Retest of New Highs and Pullback Zone✨ By MJTrading: Chart Overview: AUDUSD reached a 2025 new high around 0.65600 before pulling back sharply. Price broke out of a consolidation wedge and is now retesting the prior breakout and dynamic support area. 🔹 Key Points: Structure: Clear impulse move to new highs, followed by corrective pullback. Support Zone: Blue box ~0.6480–0.6500 could act as a demand area if price extends lower. EMAs: Price testing the 60 EMA (~0.6523) after losing short-term momentum. Trade Setup: Entry: 0.65250 SL: 0.65510 TP1: 0.65000 (Please Manage your Risk)( Ideal: 1% Per Trade) Possible Scenarios: Bullish reaction from current EMA support or the blue demand zone. Deeper retracement if price fails to hold above 0.6500. 💡 Note: This chart highlights how prior consolidation and breakout zones can offer potential retest entries in trending markets. Thanks for your time an attention... Follow for more setups. #MJTrading #AUDUSD #Forex #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #BreakoutTrading #SupportResistance #TradingView #FX
Short
by MJElahifx
AUDUSD Breakout ascending channel and consolidation breakout 1D 📊 AUD/USD Technical Breakdown – 1D Time Frame The Aussie has officially broken out of both the ascending channel and the consolidation phase, signaling strong momentum ahead. 🚀 📍 Entry Level: 0.65800 🔁 Possible Retest Zone (Support): 0.64000 🎯 Technical Targets: ✅ 1st Target: 0.66900 (Key Supply Zone) ✅ 2nd Target: 0.69000 (Major Resistance Level) Market structure and price action suggest bullish continuation if the breakout holds. Always manage risk accordingly. 📈 --- 💬 Drop your thoughts below ❤️ Like, 🔄 Follow, and 👥 Join us for more real-time updates and smart setups! — Livia, keeping it sharp 😜
Long
by LIVIATRACK
2
AUD/USD 4H – Bearish Supply Zone Rejection & Mid-Term Short BiasAUD/USD 4H – Bearish Supply Zone Rejection & Mid-Term Short Bias The Aussie has climbed into a major supply zone near the 0.67380 – 0.67540 area, which overlaps with a historical resistance range from late 2024. Price is currently testing the upper edge of this zone, showing signs of exhaustion. 🔍 Key Observations: Supply Zone Reaction: The confluence of past resistance (clearly marked as 'R') and current bearish candle formations suggests a potential reversal setup. Liquidity Grab & Rejection: The current push may be a liquidity sweep above recent highs, potentially trapping breakout buyers before a reversal. Downside Targets: First support area around 0.65311 – 0.65000, previously respected demand zone. If momentum continues, extended targets lie at 0.62729, 0.60874, and 0.59206 – all aligned with previous price reactions and liquidity pockets. 📊 Trading Plan: Bias: Short (mid-term swing) Entry Zone: 0.67350 – 0.67540 (sell limit / wait for confirmation) Stop Loss: Above 0.67650 (above last swing high) Targets: TP1: 0.65300 TP2: 0.62730 TP3: 0.60870 🧠 Risk Note: Price has entered a high-probability reversal zone, but confirmation via bearish engulfing or lower-timeframe structure break is ideal before entering aggressively.
Short
by raksazatrader
AUDUSD WEEKLY HIGHER TIME FRAME FORECAST Q3 W27 Y25AUDUSD WEEKLY HIGHER TIME FRAME FORECAST Q3 W27 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 👀 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅Weekly 50EMA Rejection ✅Daily Order block identified ✅4H Order Block identified 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Short
by JCFRGNT
1
Australia's CPI slows, raising rate cut expectationsThe Australian dollar is showing limited movement on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6495, up 0.08% on the day. Australia's inflation rate headed lower in May. Headline CPI rose 2.1%, after gains of 2.4% in the previous three months. This was below the market estimate of 2.3%. Monthly, CPI eased to 0.4%, driven by lower petrol and housing costs. The key core CPI indicator, annual trimmed mean inflation, also dropped sharply, to 2.4% from 2.8%, its lowest level since Nov. 2021. The soft inflation report has boosted the case for the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower rates at the July meeting. The markets have priced in a 90% probability of a quarter-point cut, up from 81% prior to the inflation release. The markets have priced in three more rate cuts this year, following rate cuts in February and May. The markets are counting on the RBA to be dovish in the second half of 2025. With inflation not only within the RBA's target of 2-3% but also falling, the markets expect that the RBA will be keen to lower rates in order to preserve economic growth. Federal Reserve Chair Powell testified before a House Committee on Tuesday and had a cautious message for lawmakers. Powell said that the Fed was committed to keeping inflation contained and that the Fed planned to maintain rates until the impact of tariffs on inflation was more clear and reiterated that inflation still remained above the Fed's 2% target. Powell has faced blistering criticism from President Trump for not lowering rates. In his testimony, Powell said that Trump's attacks were "having no effects" on Fed policy. AUD/USD pushed above resistance at 1.3726 and is testing resistance at 1.3727. Above, there is resistance at 1.3750 1.3713 and 1.3702 are the next support levels
by OANDA