AUDUSD InsightHello to all our subscribers.
Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe.
Key Points
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell, during his testimony before the House, responded to a question regarding Governor Christopher Waller’s suggestion of a possible July rate cut by stating, “There are a range of possible paths. It’s a possible scenario.” However, the overall tone of the testimony emphasized a wait-and-see stance.
- While there was some noise around the Israel-Iran conflict, it has been confirmed that a ceasefire was agreed upon. The Israeli side stated, “The focus will shift back to Gaza. We will bring the hostages home and dismantle the Hamas regime.”
- Due to the effects of de-dollarization, Australia’s bond market is gaining attention, and Australian government bond yields are on a downward trend.
Major Economic Events This Week
+ June 25: Testimony by Fed Chair Jerome Powell
+ June 26: U.S. Q1 GDP
+ June 27: U.S. May PCE Price Index
AUDUSD Chart Analysis
After a brief pullback, the AUD/USD pair fell to the 0.64000 level but rebounded from that support zone and is now showing an upward trend. A gradual climb is expected to continue, with the anticipated high near the 0.69000 level. However, there is minor resistance around the 0.67000 level, which could lead to a short-term decline, so caution is advised.
USDAUD trade ideas
AUDUSD AUD/USD Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6530–0.6550
Slightly bearish near-term bias amid RBA rate cut expectations
Australia 10-Year Government Bond Yield
Current Yield: 4.15% (as of June 30, 2025)
Rose 0.01 percentage points from the previous session.
Reflects market reaction to RBA policy and global trade uncertainty.
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Rate
Current Cash Rate: 3.85% (lowest in two years)
Cut by 25 bps in May 2025 to combat slowing growth and align with 2–3% inflation targets.
Markets price a 90% probability of another 25 bps cut in July 2025.
US Federal Reserve (Fed) Rate
Current Federal Funds Rate: 4.25–4.50%
Unchanged since December 2024; held steady at the June 18, 2025, meeting.
Fed signaled potential for two 25 bps cuts in late 2025 (September/December), contingent on inflation cooling.
Key Implications
Rate Differential:
RBA-Fed spread: –0.40% to –0.65% (AUD negative), pressuring AUD/USD.
Australia’s 10Y yield premium over US 10Y (~4.26%) is –0.11%, reducing AUD carry appeal.
AUD/USD Drivers:
RBA Easing: Expected July cut may weaken AUD further.
Fed Patience: Delayed cuts sustain USD strength.
Yield Sensitivity: Narrowing yield spreads limit AUD upside.
In summary:
AUD/USD trades near 0.6530–0.6550, pressured by RBA-Fed policy divergence and narrowing yield spreads. The RBA’s dovish path (3.85% rate, July cut expected) contrasts with the Fed’s hold at 4.25–4.50%, sustaining USD strength. Australia’s 10Y yield at 4.15% offers minimal premium over US Treasuries, limiting AUD support.
Bullish momentum to rise?The Aussie (AUD/USD) is reacting off the pivot which acts as an overlap resistance and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 0.6457
1st Support: 0.6388
1st Resistance: 0.6546
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Potential bullish rise?AUD/USD has bounced off the support level which is a pullback support and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.6406
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Stop loss: 0.6359
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 0.6512
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Could the Aussie bounce from here?The price is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 0.6410
1st Support: 0.6344
1st Resistance: 0.6539
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
#AUDUSD 4H 📉#AUDUSD 4H Sell Setup – Bearish Shift in Play
AUDUSD has tapped into buy-side liquidity at 0.65713, triggering a sharp rejection and signaling a potential Market Structure Reversal (MSR). Price is now approaching a key Order Block (OB) zone, aligning with prevailing bearish order flow.
🔻 Sell Zone: 0.65400 – 0.65000
❌ Stop Loss: Above 0.65713 (Liquidity Level)
🎯 Target: 0.6432
This setup reflects strong rejection from premium pricing and confirmation of bearish momentum. Smart money dynamics suggest a continuation to the downside as price respects resistance and structure.
Ok we are short Price closed under support so we will wait for pullback to the green lines above 76 fib level and sell back down to the next support level which the 200 fib level orange lines on the bottom However 🤔 if price breaks above resistance the greennlines and closes above wait for pullback and buy it back-up to the next level of resistance
AUD/USD Approaches Key Resistance with Bullish Momentum IntactAUD/USD has extended its steady climb and is now challenging the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (0.6558) from the July–October 2023 decline. The pair is trading within a rising channel structure and has cleared both the 50-day (0.6457) and 200-day (0.6422) SMAs, confirming a medium-term bullish shift.
Price action remains constructive, with higher lows and rising support from the channel base suggesting consistent demand. A sustained break above the 0.6558 level could open the door toward the 78.6% Fib retracement at 0.6730, a level that also aligns with prior resistance from September 2023.
Momentum indicators support the advance. The RSI is at 61.77 and rising, but still comfortably below overbought levels, implying room for further upside. The MACD is marginally positive and could accelerate higher if price confirms a breakout above the 61.8% Fib barrier.
Traders will be watching whether the pair can hold above the confluence of the SMAs and the lower trendline of the channel. A failure here could expose downside toward 0.6420–0.6450. Otherwise, the bullish structure remains intact, with scope for a continuation higher into July.
-MW
AUDUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W26 D27 Y25AUDUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W26 D27 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today!
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅Daily order block
✅1H Order block
✅Intraday breaks of structure
✅4H Order block
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
AUDUSD SHORT DAILY FORECAST Q3 D30 W27 Y25AUDUSD SHORT DAILY FORECAST Q3 D30 W27 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 👀
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅Daily Order block identified
✅4H Order Block identified
✅1H Order Block identified
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
AUD/USD Coils Below Critical ResistanceThe June range is preserved heading into the close of the month with a massive outside-weekly reversal taking Aussie back into key resistance on Friday. Note that momentum is approaching the 60-level for the first time this year and a break higher alongside a breach above 6550 could fuel a substantial rally here- watch the weekly close.
Initial support rests with the February high-week close (HWC) at 6357 and is backed closely by 6290/6315- a region defined by the yearly low-week close (LWC) and the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range. Note that the median-line converges on this level over the next few weeks and we’ll reserve this threshold as our bullish invalidation level- a break / weekly close below would threaten downtrend resumption toward the next major technical consideration at 6162/79.
A topside breach / close above this key pivot zone is needed to fuel the next leg of the advance with key resistance seen at the 2019 lows near 6670. Ultimately a break above the upper parallel (blue) would be needed to suggest a more significant trend reversal is underway with subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 2024 HWC / yearly open near 6795-6810 and 6900.
Bottom line: An outside-weekly reversal has covered the entire monthly range with the Australian Dollar now testing critical resistance for an eighth-consecutive week. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to the 52-week moving average IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 6550 needed to fuel the next move.
-MB
AUDUSD Buyers In Panic! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
AUDUSD looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 0.6571 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
My Stop Loss - 0.6603
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 0.6511
About Used Indicators:
The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AUD/USD Bearish Setup – Rejection from Supply ZoneAUD/USD is showing signs of bearish pressure after getting rejected from the key 0.65420 supply zone, marked by strong historical resistance and a high-volume node. Price tested this area multiple times but failed to break above, forming a potential lower high – a classic signal of institutional distribution.
🔵 Key Levels:
Resistance (Supply Zone): 0.65420
Mid-range support: 0.65040
Demand Zone: 0.64649 – 0.64400
🔻 Bearish Outlook: If price holds below 0.65420, we anticipate a drop first toward 0.65040, and potentially down to 0.64649, where a demand zone is likely to react. The previous bounce from demand suggests smart money accumulation below.
📌 Watch for:
Bearish engulfing or rejection wick candles near 0.65400.
Break below 0.65040 to confirm short continuation.
Confluence with macroeconomic events (FOMC, US data on the 17th–18th).
💬 Are you shorting AUD/USD from the supply zone? Drop your thoughts👇
#AUDUSD #Forex #SmartMoney #SupplyDemand #PriceAction #LuxAlgo #ForexTrading #TradingView #MarketStructure
Bearish drop?The Aussie (AUD/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could drop to the pullback support.
Pivot: 0.6497
1st Support: 0.6466
1st Resistance: 0.6510
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Major resistance ahead?The Aussie (AUD/USD) is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 0.6512
1st Support: 0.6466
1st Resistance: 0.6545
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Potential bearish drop?AUD/USD is reacting off the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.6512
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.6537
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 0.6487
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
New Bullish Setup on AUD/USD – Targeting 130+ PipsA new BUY signal has emerged on the AUD/USD chart, signaling potential upward movement.
BUY Signal: Activated at 0.64214, indicating a possible reversal from the recent downtrend after price tapped into a higher-timeframe demand zone.
TP Zones:
TP1: 0.64656
TP2: 0.65097
Final TP: 0.65538
This setup offers a potential profit range of 40 to 130 pips.
Market Structure: Price has broken multiple internal lows, creating BOS (Break of Structure) on the way down, but now shows a possible shift in momentum from a fresh demand zone. The setup suggests a bullish correction or reversal toward the imbalance and supply area above.
Remember to manage your trades carefully and ensure this setup fits your overall strategy. Stay sharp and trade responsibly!
AUDUSD Sellers In Panic! BUY!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the AUDUSD next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 0.6427
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 0.6462
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Precision Rejection: AUD/USD Short in MotionBias: Bearish
Date: June 23, 2025
Timeframe: 1-Hour
⸻
Market Context:
AUD/USD has retraced back into a 1H supply zone between 0.6480–0.6500, where strong institutional selling occurred previously. The recent bounce from 0.6372 appears corrective, driven by short-term USD softness, but the broader structure remains bearish.
This current move is setting up for a liquidity grab above recent highs, creating the ideal conditions for a lower high rejection and a possible selloff back into a large imbalance zone resting below.
This area holds:
• Buy stops from breakout traders
• Trapped long entries from the recent retracement
• Institutional sell-side liquidity
• A visible imbalance gap down to the 0.61143 region, waiting to be filled
⸻
My Analysis and Bias:
I believe AUD/USD is setting up for a liquidity sweep above 0.6480, followed by a sharp rejection. After confirming a lower high and bearish momentum, I’m expecting a clean break of 0.6430 support and continuation toward the imbalance fill at 0.61143.
This is a smart money setup:
1. Price taps into supply and rejects
2. A lower high forms after sweep
3. Bearish structure breaks below 0.6430
4. Price fills imbalance resting around 0.61143
⸻
Entry Plan:
• Primary Entry: 0.6482–0.6485 after rejection from supply
• Confirmation Tools: Rejection wick, bearish engulfing candle, or break of minor structure
• Stop Loss: Above 0.6517 (protective stop above liquidity sweep zone)
⸻
Take Profit Levels:
• TP1: 0.6430 – Breaker structure
• TP2: 0.6380 – Major support
• TP3: 0.6300 – Secondary liquidity pool
• TP4: 0.61143 – Imbalance fill (final target)
⸻
Execution Plan Summary:
• Entry: 0.6482 after rejection or clear confirmation
• SL: ~0.6517
• TPs: 0.6430 → 0.6380 → 0.6300 → 0.61143
• Risk/Reward: ~10:1 potential based on charted range
⸻
Final Thoughts:
“This is a premium setup built around smart money concepts. Market structure, supply rejection, and imbalance alignment are all here. Once confirmation hits, I’ll execute — no guessing.
Trade simple. Live lavish.”