USDAUD trade ideas
AUDUSD SELL 15 MINUTE TIME FRAMESTRONG SUPPLY ZONE
Look how price keep making lower highs and breaking structure
Expecting a 4:1 Risk to Reward
Let’s see!
Bearish drop?AUD/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.6262
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.6324
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance.
Take profit: 0.6176
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
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Australian dollar extends losses on soft Aussie CPIThe Australian dollar is down for a third straight trading day and has declined 1.3% this week. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6228, down 0.37% on the day.
Australia's annual inflation rate dropped to 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024 from 2.8% in Q3. This was below the market estimate of 2.5% and was the lowest reading since Q1 2023. Electricity prices were sharply lower due to an energy bill rebate and services inflation dropped to 4.3% from 4.6%, its lowest level in three quarters. On a quarterly basis, CPI remained unchanged at 0.2% in Q4, below the market estimate of 0.3%.
The Reserved Bank of Australia's trimmed mean CPI, a key indicator of underlying inflation, slowed to 0.5% q/q in Q4, lower than 0.8% in Q3 and below the market estimate of 0.6%. Annually, trimmed mean CPI fell to 3.2%, compared to a revised 3.6% in Q3 and below the market estimate of 3.3%.
The soft inflation report has raised expectations that the RBA will lower rates at the Feb. 18 meeting, with the market pricing in a quarter-point cut at 80%. That would bring the cash rate to 4.10%, its lowest since Oct. 2023. Today's inflation report has added significance as it is the final tier-1 event prior to next month's rate meeting.
Investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve's rate announcement later today, although it would be a massive surprise if the Fed did not maintain the current benchmark interest rate of 4.25%-4.5%. The Fed has cut rate three consecutive times, including a jumb0 half-point chop in September 2024, but the resilient US economy has stalled plans to aggressively lower rates further and currently the Fed is projected to cut rates only once or twice in 2025.
AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6228. Below, there is support at 0.6204
0.6262 and 0.6286 are the next resistance lines
Waiting for some buyers to appear and sellJust waiting for some buyers to appear so sell can start to appear, clearly
AUD/USD Resistance Rejection and Bearish OutlookAUD/USD represents the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar in the forex market. The current price is 0.62300, with a target price of 0.60000, indicating a bearish outlook. The expected price drop suggests a potential gain of 200+ pips if the trade moves as anticipated. The analysis is based on the support and resistance pattern, a key concept in technical trading. The price has reached a strong resistance level and is facing rejection, signaling selling pressure. A rejection at resistance often indicates a shift in momentum, leading to a possible downward move. Traders anticipate the price to decline toward the next support level at 0.60000. This setup suggests bearish dominance as long as resistance holds. If the price fails to break above resistance, further downside movement is likely. Proper risk management is crucial, as market conditions can change.
AUD/USD BUYERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|LONG
Hello, Friends!
Bullish trend on AUD/USD, defined by the green colour of the last week candle combined with the fact the pair is oversold based on the BB lower band proximity, makes me expect a bullish rebound from the support line below and a retest of the local target above at 0.625.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
AUDUSD SELL ANALYSIS RISING WEDGE PATTERN Here on Audusd price form a rising wedge pattern and now likely to fall so trader should go for short with expect profit target of 0.62319 and 0.61879 . Use money management
posibility of uptrendIt is expected that after some fluctuation and correction, the upward trend will begin and will continue to the specified Fibonacci levels.
AUD/USD Sell-Off Continues! More Pain Ahead? The AUD/USD pair is showing clear signs of bearish continuation as price respects a higher timeframe Fair Value Gap (FVG), rejecting attempts to push higher. Additionally, high-impact news against the Australian Dollar has accelerated downside momentum, reinforcing the bearish bias.
Key Observations:
✅ HTF FVG Respect – Price reacted strongly to the daily FVG, showing a rejection pattern.
✅ Bearish Momentum – Fundamentals align with technicals, pushing AUD lower.
✅ Sell-Side Liquidity Target – Eyes on 0.61305 as a major liquidity grab zone.
Trade Outlook:
Expect further downside movement, but watch for potential retracements into the FVG before continuation lower. If price remains below 0.62703, the probability of a deeper sell-off increases.
DYOR and manage risk accordingly! 📉🔥
Soft AU inflation figures likely cements RBA cut AUD/USD escaped a short-covering rally on Wednesday, as softer-than-expected Q4 inflation figures could justify the 25bp RBA cut that money markets were already pricing in. I take a quick look at the key inflation measures and AUD/USD.
Matt Simpson, market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
BUY AUDUSDIn todays session we are monitoring AUDUSD for buying opportunities. The low is locked in at 0.62280 (possible low of the day). Our entries are at 0.6233 and targets are at 0.63177 (Expected high of the day). Our stop loss is at 0.6214. Use proper risk management and best of luck folks.
Wed 29th Jan 2025 AUD/USD Daily Forex Chart Sell SetupGood morning fellow traders. On my Daily Forex charts using the High Probability & Divergence trading methods from my books, I have identified a new trade setup this morning. As usual, you can read my notes on the chart for my thoughts on this setup. The trade being an AUD/USD Sell. Enjoy the day all. Cheers. Jim
FOREX AUDUSD LONGAUDUSD appears to have formed a fakeout at the lower end of the range. This suggests that traders who entered short positions when support was broken are now either closing their positions or adding to their losing trades to avoid liquidation. This dynamic could fuel the price toward 0.64, where the 21-week exponential moving average is located.
I'm watching for the price to reach the nPOC zone. However, if the price finds support around the 21-day EMA within the next 1–2 days, I plan to enter with half of my position.
AUD/USD Bullish!!!Price currently in Wave 4 retracement, expecting to complete Wave 5 to the upside towards 0.63812.
AUDUSD Wave Analysis 28 January 2025
- AUDUSD reversed from the resistance zone
- Likely to fall to support level 0.6200
AUDUSD currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance zone between the pivotal resistance level 0.6300 (former powerful support from the end of 2023) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from November.
The downward reversal from this resistance zone stopped the previous ABC correction 4.
Given the clear daily downtrend and the overbought daily stochastic, AUDUSD can be expected to fall further to the next support level 0.6200 (which stopped the previous minor correction b).
AUD/USD's Potential Bearish Flag BreakdownChart Analysis:
The AUD/USD pair is trading within a short-term rising channel, providing a near-term bullish framework amid a broader bearish trend.
1️⃣ Rising Channel:
The pair remains within the bounds of a green-shaded rising channel, suggesting upward momentum persists in the short term.
A break below the channel’s lower boundary near 0.6240 could signal a return to bearish dominance, while a move above 0.6300 would strengthen bullish prospects.
2️⃣ Moving Averages:
50-day SMA (blue): Positioned at 0.6327, acting as the next key resistance level above the rising channel.
200-day SMA (red): At 0.6578, remains well above the current price, reflecting the pair’s long-term bearish bias.
3️⃣ Momentum Indicators:
RSI: At 47.66, indicating neutral momentum and the potential for either continuation or reversal within the channel.
MACD: Near zero but improving, suggesting waning bearish momentum.
What to Watch:
A sustained break above 0.6300 and the 50-day SMA would open the door for further gains.
Alternatively, failure to hold the rising channel support at 0.6240 could lead to renewed selling pressure, targeting the 0.6200 psychological level and below.
The AUD/USD pair’s near-term direction hinges on its ability to maintain the rising channel structure while contending with the overhead 50-day SMA resistance.
-MW
Aud Usd Daily long setupAud usd heading south from 0.69 managed to break 0.635 which acted as Aud Usd strong support line in years 2024 and 2023 . A come back from 0.615 area managed to swing near resistance siiting at 0.635. Newly created support line at 0.617 suggests that 0.617 to 0.62 will be the newly created demand zone. If dollar is on its way south after touching 110 on its index, then aud usd will most likely break above 0.635 after touching support at .0617 to 0.62 area. A touch and a swing top. Breaking and closing below 0.617 suggets further downside.
AUD/USD at Key Support ZoneThe AUD/USD is presenting a Bullish Gartley Pattern on the daily chart, followed by a pullback into a critical support zone at 0.626 - 0.633. This area has proven to be a significant level for buyers, and current conditions suggest a potential reversal.
Buy Strategy: Retest at Support (0.626 - 0.633)
Rationale:
The 0.626 - 0.633 zone aligns with a critical support level where the last bullish reaction occurred.
If price shows signs of rejection or reversal here, a new bullish wave could develop.
The TDI Indicator is nearing a zone of buyer exhaustion and may signal a bullish divergence if price reacts positively to the support zone.
Trade Parameters:
Buy Zone: 0.626 - 0.633
Stop Loss: 0.621 (below the support zone)
Take Profit: 0.635 (near short-term resistance)
Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:2
Recommendation:
Monitor the 0.626 - 0.633 zone closely for signs of rejection or divergence on the TDI. A strong bullish candle in this area could provide confirmation for a potential upside move.
a simple tradeSelling AUD USD on 15 Minute Becase
- price hitting a zone on 15M and 1 hour
- heavy bottom candle on 15 indicates low liquidity
fib on 15M and 1H - SELL
1:3 half a percent risk
AUD/USD slides on Trump tariff threatsThe Australian dollar is in negative territory on Tuesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6252, down 0.62%.
Investors are keeping a closer eye on the third-quarter inflation report, which will be released early on Wednesday. CPI is expected to ease to 2.5% from 2.8%. This is the final tier-1 event prior to the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate meeting on Feb. 18 and could be the determining factor as to whether the RBA finally lowers interest rates. The markets have priced in about an 80% chance of a quarter-point cut at the February meeting. The RBA has maintained the cash rate at 4.35% since Nov. 2023 and has been an outlier among other major central banks, most of which have entered an easing cycle.
The US dollar is showing broad strength today, after US President Trump said on Monday that he would impose tariffs on steel, aluminum and copper imported to the U.S. Trump reiterated that he plans to levy a baseline universal tariff on all imports. Trump's tariff plans would likely raise inflation and could destabilize the financial markets, which displayed strong swings during Trump's first week in office.
China's services and manufacturing sectors both decelerated in January and missed expectations. The non-manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2, down from 52.2 in December and shy of the forecast of 51.8. With the exception of November, service activity has been stagnant, with readings barely above the 50 level, which separates expansion from contraction. Domestic demand weakened and the uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump's trade policies have dampened foreign sales.
The manufacturing sector is struggling and contracted in January, easing to 49.1, compared to 50.1 in December and missing the market estimate of 50.1. This was the first contraction since September 2024 and the sharpest decline in five months. Manufacturing output and foreign orders weakened in January and the weak global economy could mean further headwinds in 2025 for the manufacturing sector.
China's government has implemented stimulus measures in order to boost the economy and GDP hit 5% in 2024. Still, deflation has persisted and consumer spending remains weak. The government will have to inject further stimulus in order to boost domestic consumption, a key engine of economic growth.
AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6278. Below, there is support at 0.6225
0.6366 and 0.6419 are the next resistance lines
