Bullish continuation?The Aussie (AUD/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance which lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Pivot: 0.6328
1st Support: 0.6206
1st Resistance: 0.6537
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USDAUD trade ideas
Week of 4/20/25: AUDUSD AnalysisWeekly and daily candles are consecutively bullish with a V-shape recovery to the upside. Looking for longs and especially keeping an eye out for the 1H POI flip-zone that I refined in the 4H POI.
Unless 1H internal structure shifts bearish, I am long ALL THE WAY!
Major News:
PMI - Wednesday
Unemployment - Thursday
Thanks for tuning in, have a great week.
AUDUSD: Consolidation Near Key ResistanceIn the previous analysis, the decline toward the 0.60 support was accurately predicted, followed by a rebound from the identified zone. After a sharp rally, a corrective move is not unexpected. With the price now approaching the 0.64 supply zone, a pullback toward 0.63 or lower is likely. However, if the 0.64 resistance is broken, the next bullish target would be 0.65, as illustrated in the chart scenario.
AUDUSD - Resistance Test Points to Imminent Price CorrectionThe AUD/USD pair has shown impressive upside momentum in recent days, recovering sharply from its early April lows near 0.5900 to now testing the key resistance zone highlighted in blue around 0.6400. After such a substantial rally of approximately 500 pips, technical indicators suggest the pair is becoming overextended in the short term. We anticipate a corrective pullback as price encounters this significant resistance level, which previously acted as support in mid-March. This correction would be a healthy development within the broader market structure, potentially setting up better entry opportunities for those still bullish on the Australian dollar in the medium term.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Weekly Analysis for AUD/USD๐ Weekly Analysis for AUD/USD
๐ Technical Outlook by Shaker Trading
โ
Reasons for the Bearish Outlook:
Descending Price Channel:
The pair is clearly moving within a downward channel, reflecting continued bearish pressure in the medium to long term.
Overbought Signals on Indicators:
Both RSI and MACD are showing overbought conditions, suggesting a possible reversal from current levels.
Strong Supply Zones:
Price has entered into major supply zones that are likely to act as resistance and push the price downward.
๐ Trading Idea:
As long as the price remains below the supply zone and inside the descending channel, the bearish bias remains valid.
Best sell opportunities are expected from the upper resistance areas highlighted on the chart.
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AUD/USD H4 AnalysisAfter multiple rejections of 0.5950, we saw a huge stimulus of buying which has now taken price up to the 0.6400 zone.
We have recently seen rejections in this area, and what is noticeable is that the most recent price action appears to be slowing down, with the higher highs and lows not significantly advancing.
Is this a sign to exit any buy positions and anticipate sells?
This is an idea of what may happen. You should always trade with a well tested and profitable trading strategy using good risk management.
AUDUSD(20250418)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, the seventh rate cut in the past year, and this decision was unanimous.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries: 0.6369
Support and resistance levels:
0.6430
0.6407
0.6392
0.6346
0.6331
0.6309
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 0.6392, consider buying, the first target price is 0.6407
If the price breaks through 0.6369, consider selling, the first target price is 0.6346
AUDUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W18 D18 Y25AUDUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W18 D18 Y25
Fun Coupon Friday !
SUMMARY
- IMO, if this shorts, it's a slippy slide !
- Daily order block setup
- Daily highs confluence
- Weekly 50 Ema forecast to provide resistance for the short.
- Required to await 15' breaks of structure as price is bullish/ ranging at the moment .
- upon intra day breaks of structure, anticipating a creation of 15' order block to provide an area of interest to short from.
FRGNT X
AUDUSD: Hidden Institutional Supply Zone in Play 6H Technical Outlook ๐ง ๐
Hidden Institutional Supply Zone in Play โ Potential Short Opportunity Developing
INSTITUTIONAL SUPPLY ZONE โ 6H
๐ด Resistance (Distal): 0.64086
๐ง Resistance (Major): 0.63971
๐ Resistance (Proximal): 0.63914
CHART CONTEXT
Price action (PA) has tapped directly into the defined Institutional Supply Zone , showing hesitation to close above 0.64086, the Distal Resistance Line โa red flag for bulls, green light for institutional bears.
SELL SETUP: HIGH-PROBABILITY IF 0.64086 HOLDS ๐งจ
Current PA is stalling beneath supply zone boundaries.
0.64086 is acting as the final line of defense; if unbroken on a closing basis, we maintain strong bearish bias.
Stacked SELL ORDERS from 0.63842 to 0.63347.
DOWNSIDE TARGETS (IF SHORT TRIGGERS) ๐ฏ
TP 1 โ 0.62405
TP 2 โ 0.61613 (Mid Pivot)
TP 3 โ 0.61030
TP 4 โ 0.60129
UPSIDE INVALIDATION LEVEL ๐
Stoploss above 0.64086 โ strong close above this level invalidates short scenario.
SUMMARY ๐
If 0.64086 holds firm and PA fails to close above this institutional supply zone, we anticipate high probability of a sell-off from current levels. This aligns with the broader downtrend structure and stacked sell-side liquidity
๐ก Alert Setup:
SL: 0.64086
SELL LIMIT 1: 0.63842
SELL LIMIT 2: 0.63347
TP: 0.62405 โ 0.60129
LTF DistributionContinuation of previous post :
1H Range starts off this schematic by stopping the momentum at the point of the first secondary test, it fails to break the previous high and this markets goes from moving up to sideways into this TR. Each rally to previous highs reflects upside effort increasing, but upside result is decreasing indicating buyers weakness near this level. uE>, uR< = bearish indicator.
Favorable bearish confirmation would be a lower high, paired with high buy volume confirming the shift to bearish market.
AUDUSD AUDUSD SELL ANALYSIS UPDATE. 4 HR LOOKING GREAT
For traders who have entered short positions based , derived by the hourly strong resistance level, the 4 hour downtrend, the previous recent lower low, the overbought RSI, and a few other indicators used.
Conversely, while the primary focus is on sell opportunities due to the overarching downtrend, potential long positions would require more significant confirming signals. These confirmations may include [ a break and close above a key resistance level, bullish divergence on a specific indicator, positive fundamentals and a LOCK.
Further detailed analysis and real-time updates are available just send a message or leave a comment!
AUD/USD โ Swing Short from Resistance | Daily RangeI'm placing a sell limit order on AUD/USD at a key resistance level, with a take profit set at the bottom of the current daily range. This is a swing trade based on both technical structure and fundamental reasoning.
Technically, price has been moving in a consolidation range on the daily chart, trading between the EMA 100 and EMA 200, which often signals indecision and potential reversal zones. The resistance I'm targeting has acted as a ceiling within this range.
From a fundamental perspective, the USD has been under prolonged pressure due to political uncertainty and weakening investor confidence in the U.S. economy. However, this bearish momentum may be overextended โ the DXY (Dollar Index) is currently testing the 99.600 level, a significant historical support. A potential bounce from this zone could bring USD strength back into the picture, increasing the probability of a reversal in AUD/USD.
This trade idea aligns a technical resistance rejection with a possible USD recovery, making it a high-probability short setup in the current market context
Trading AUDUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 15/04/2025Tuesday's price action on FX:AUDUSD , we got a textbook Judas Swing play and for those still getting used to spotting these setups in real-time, letโs break this one down and talk through what happened and more importantly, why it happened.
Going into the session open, we had a relatively tight consolidation, with the 00:00 - 08:30est range acting as a container for liquidity. Price had built up liquidity at the high and low of the zone. Whichever side gets swept first will determine our directional bias for the session
Just after the session began, we saw price aggressively push up taking out the buy side liquidity resting above those early highs. This is what is called the "Judas move", a false breakout meant to trap breakout buyers and entice liquidity into the market. This move is not random. Itโs designed to induce traders into the wrong side of the market before the real direction reveals itself
As soon as that liquidity grab was complete, we noticed price begin to stall and form a shift in market structure. This is critical. Once you see a break of structure to the downside, followed by a lower high into a FVG, thatโs your confirmation that the real move, the sell-off is in play. We then saw clean displacement to the downside, confirming the manipulation phase was over
Now we wait for a retracement into the Fair Value Gap (FVG). We'll only look to execute a trade once a candle enters the FVG and closes. After a few minutes of waiting, price finally retraced into the FVG, giving us the green light to execute the trade.
Entry: 0.63749
Stop loss: 0.63849
Take profit: 0.63549
This FX:AUDUSD trade gave us a smooth ride with minimal drawdown. Right after entry price moved swiftly into profit. Although there was a brief retrace back to our entry point, it quickly corrected, and we were back in the green. With just a 1% risk, the trade delivered a solid 2% return all within 1 hour and 20 minutes
This setup is an excellent example of why you donโt want to chase early session breakouts blindly. The Judas Swing strategy teaches us to look for the trap, wait for confirmation, and then trade in alignment with the real intention behind price. Beginners often get caught up in the initial move, thinking itโs the real trend. But if you can slow down, understand the time of day, the draw on liquidity, and the reaction around key highs/lows, youโll start to see how often price manipulates before delivering.
AUD/USD) Resistance level pullback Short Read The ChaptianSMC Trading point update
analysis of the AUD/USD pair on the 2-hour timeframe, showing a possible bearish setup. Here's a breakdown of the idea behind it:
Key Observations:
1. Current Trend:
The pair was in an uptrend, as indicated by the rising channel (parallel trendlines). However, it has now broken out of that channel.
2. Resistance Level:
The price has reached a resistance zone around 0.64000, and it seems to be rejecting this level.
3. 2 Timeframe Demand Zone:
Around the 0.63300 โ 0.63400 range, this area previously acted as a demand zone (support), and the chart suggests price might retest it.
4. Projected Move:
First, a pullback up into the resistance zone could occur.
Then a drop to the demand zone.
If the demand zone fails to hold, the price could head down toward the key support/FVG (Fair Value Gap) around 0.61000 โ 0.61500.
5. EMA (200):
The 200 EMA is below the price, suggesting longer-term bullish pressure, but it's starting to flatten, which could signal weakness in the uptrend.
6. RSI Indicator:
RSI is around 52, showing neutral momentumโneither overbought nor oversold, allowing room for movement in either direction.
Mr SMC Trading point
---
Idea Summary:
The chart suggests a potential reversal from the uptrend into a downtrend, triggered by a failure to break above resistance. The two key targets for a bearish move are:
First: the 2TF demand zone
Final: the key support/FVG zone
Pales support boost ๐ analysis follow)
AUDUSD โ Sell Stop Setup (Intraday)Published: 17/04/2025 06:42
Expires: 18/04/2025 06:00
Duration: Intraday
๐ง Trade Summary
Type: Sell Stop
Entry: 0.6315
Target: 0.6205
Stop Loss: 0.6370
Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2
Confidence Level: 46%
News Sentiment: 54%
๐ Technical View
While bulls have been in control, momentum is stalling.
Bearish divergence suggests limited upside potential.
Price action is showing signs of forming a top.
RSI is rolling over, indicating potential short-term weakness.
A break below 0.6315 would confirm bearish intent and trigger the short setup.
๐ Key Levels
Resistance: 0.6380 / 0.6400 / 0.6425
Support: 0.6325 / 0.6275 / 0.6250
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
AUDUSD SELL & BUY TRADE PLAN๐ฅ AUD/USD TRADE PLAN
๐
Date: 17 April 2025
๐ Plan Type:
Dual-Sided Swing Setup
โ Bearish Reversal (Active)
โ Bullish Re-entry Setup (Not Yet Active)
๐ Bias & Trade Type:
Primary Bias: ๐ป Bearish Reversal from Supply (LTF weakness forming)
Secondary Bias: ๐ผ Bullish Re-engagement from deeper HTF OB zones
๐ฐ Confidence Level:
Sell Plan: โญโญโญโญ (80%) โ Active structure + rejection forming
Buy Plan: โญโญโญ (70%) โ Pending price retrace to HTF demand
๐ CURRENT TRADE STATUS:
AUD/USD is trading at 0.6337, just under intra supply zone (0.6345โ0.6365)
โ
Sell Setup = Active: Price showing rejection, divergence forming on M15โH1
โ Buy Setup = Not yet valid: Lower zone untested
โ ๏ธ If price consolidates without clean rejection or BOS โ Neutral zone
๐ ENTRY ZONES:
๐ด SELL PLAN โ Bearish Reversal
๐ฅ Primary Sell Zone: 0.6345 โ 0.6375
โ (M15โH1 bearish OB + imbalance fill + premium structure zone)
๐ Confirmation: LTF bearish engulfing, divergence, or wick re-entry below 0.6345
๐ฅ Secondary Sell Zone: 0.6390 โ 0.6415
โ (Unmitigated H4 imbalance top + structure sweep zone)
๐ Entry only on rejection with wick trap or supply re-entry
โ Stop Loss: Above 0.6435
โ Invalidates HTF bearish scenario, breaks OB stack
๐ฏ Take Profits:
๐ฏ TP1: 0.6280 โ Local support cluster
๐ฏ TP2: 0.6235 โ H4 demand + FVG
๐ฏ TP3: 0.6205 โ Weekly OB tap zone (HTF liquidity pocket)
๐ข BUY PLAN โ Bullish Continuation Setup
๐ฉ Primary Buy Zone: 0.6230 โ 0.6265
โ (Clean demand block + unfilled FVG + previous BOS)
๐ Confirmation: Bullish LTF reclaim + OB absorption
๐จ Secondary Buy Zone: 0.6175 โ 0.6205
โ (Weekly OB sweep zone + deeper liquidity trap)
๐ Entry only with wick + D1 support reclaim
โ Stop Loss: Below 0.6150
โ Invalidates HTF bullish structure
๐ฏ Take Profits:
๐ฏ TP1: 0.6320 โ Supply gap re-entry
๐ฏ TP2: 0.6370 โ Previous high + fair value
๐ฏ TP3: 0.6425 โ Weekly resistance / liquidity wick
๐ง CONFLUENCE SNAPSHOT:
๐ป Bearish Setup Confluences:
โ
OB rejection zone (H1โH4 supply)
โ
Price hit premium zone with no follow-through
โ
M15โH1 divergence & wick exhaustion
โ
Trendline break signs + weakening upside momentum
โ
Macro USD stabilization adds weight
๐ผ Bullish Setup Confluences:
โ
Unmitigated HTF demand zone (0.6230โ0.6265)
โ
Prior BOS with imbalance left behind
โ
USD still structurally soft overall
โ ๏ธ Await volume spike + LTF reclaim to activate
๐ RiskโReward Estimate:
Sell Setup: Up to 1:3.5 depending on entry precision
Buy Setup: Up to 1:4.0 if from deeper OB
๐ง Management Guidelines:
๐ Move SL to BE after TP1
๐ Scale partials at TP1/TP2
๐ Leave 25โ30% to run for HTF expansion
๐ Re-entry optional if BOS confirmed again from OB
๐ Fundamentals:
AUD supported by China resilience & risk-on rebound
USD volatile post CPI but showing short-term recovery signs
No major red-tier events today, but Fed speakers + risk sentiment pivotal
โณ Validity:
48 hours from trigger or until OB structure is invalidated
๐ Final Summary:
AUD/USD currently showing signs of short-term exhaustion at supply. A well-structured bearish reversal setup is live with clean entry zones and TP targets. HTF bullish scenario may activate only upon a deeper retracement to unfilled demand zones. Confirmation critical. Trade both sides if confluence triggers separately.
AUDUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W16 D17 Y25AUDUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W16 D17 Y25
GM GM.
Summary
+ Daily high rejection
+ Weekly order block rejection
+ Weekly 50 EMA edging closer to price action
+ 4H bearish close
+ 1H continued short
+ 15' intraday breaks of structure
Just a few confluences mentioned.
Entry Model
Tap
Lower time frame break of structure/ Bearish candle stick formation from point of interest.
FRGNT X
AUD-USD Free Signal! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
AUD-USD is already making
A local pullback from the
Horizontal resistance level
Around the 0.6395 area
So we are bearish biased
And so we can enter a
Short trade with the Take
Profit of 0.6310 and the
Stop Loss of 0.6414
Sell!
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.