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U.S. Dollar / Australian Dollar

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USDAUD trade ideas

$AUDUSD | Sell Trade | Market Exec |Technical Confluences: Price is at Overbought conditions Daily timeframe Price action is close to a resistance trendline and entering an Interest Zone Fundamental Confluences: Very similar to the OANDA:NZDUSD posting I did, all other Central Banks in the DM space wanting to cut rates, it negates off the yield premium that NZD would be getting against USD Market is consolidating after all the USD sell-off and profit-taking mood before NFP is likely to happen AUD being a commodity currency is greatly affected by China's economic performance and it is currently still looking bleak ----- I have also taken a Short position in the FX:AUDUSD trade and monitoring that the Resistance trendline and Interest Zone don't break. Within the Orange Zones, I will look to add position if I see further support that the Resistance will hold -----
Short
by weekendanalyst
AUDUSD H1 I Bearish BreakoutBased on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price is falling to our sell entry at 0.6786. Our take profit will be at 0.6750, a pullback support close to 50% Fibo retracement. The stop loss will be placed at 0.6812, which is a swing-high level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
2
AUDUSD Iron Ore and ChinaThe Australian Dollar seems to be edging higher over the next few quarters. By the end of 2024, we could see AUD/USD hovering around 0.69 and perhaps 0.72 somewhere, most likely late in 2025. But it will be a long road that takes time. One of the biggest problems is the lack of demand for Australia's iron ore, driven by weak global markets that continue to weigh down on the Australian dollar. The slow grind-up in AUD has a lot to do with the U.S. As interest rates between the two economies converge, AUD/USD is finding some support. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has taken on a more hawkish tone since its August meeting, signaling they're not in a rush to cut interest rates, and that's for good reasons. Australia's job market is strong, while inflation is still running hotter than the RBA would like. Despite the positive factors boosting the AUD, it's unlikely for now that the AUD/USD will surpass the 0.70 mark unless there are changes in China. China's economy, which is important for Australian exports such as iron ore, is currently going through a downturn. Indicators such as new home sales and credit growth present a grim outlook, and unless there's an improvement in China, the AUD's price increase may be limited. Here is where it gets interesting. Sentiment around China is already so negative that any further drop isn't likely to drag AUD much lower. The upside probability includes a depreciation of the US dollar and differences in interest rates. If the dollar weakens, the Australian dollar can be stronger than the dollar (relatively), as in the pair AUD/USD. The other big reason AUD has a lot of upside potential is that if Australia's interest rates are higher than other countries, investors might prefer to hold AUD for better returns. Because Australia's interest rates are expected to stay higher for longer than those of other major economies, the AUD is likely to gain value against other major currencies in the G10 by the end of the year. China headwind China is still affecting the Australian dollar. While the Australian Dollar has become less sensitive to China (apart from the impact of the USD), it still affects the AUD/USD exchange rate. A recovery in China's new home sales is crucial for the growth of property-driven commodity imports from Australia. Despite several property easing measures in 2024, new home sales are still significantly lower, and home prices have dropped for the 14th consecutive month. The Australian dollar is more closely connected to metal prices than other commodity currencies such as the Canadian dollar (CAD) and the New Zealand dollar (NZD). Iron ore prices have decreased by over 30% year-to-date, and the deteriorating Chinese property market continues to reduce demand for iron ore due to the decline in steel production in China. Weak credit growth in China may lead to lower import demand. China's credit impulse, which usually precedes import growth from Australia, shows a sluggish outlook. This negative view of China's commodity demand is expected to limit the upside for the AUD. China's sentiment measure remains at a historical bearish level. However, it's unlikely to cause a sharp fall either, as the sentiment reflects that bad news is potentially well-priced. Super fund flows Australian retirement funds, known as superannuation funds, may help support the Australian dollar by increasing their hedge ratios on current assets. This hasn't happened yet, but it could be a possibility in the long term if the US dollar keeps falling. There are already signs that investors in other countries are starting to raise their hedge ratios. In Australia, the low hedge ratios on international equity holdings are due to factors other than hedge costs. Asset allocators have kept these hedge ratios low because of the AUD's sensitivity to global risk factors. These industry super funds have increased their hedged assets mainly due to shifts in asset allocation, moving into more defensive asset classes like fixed income, infrastructure, and property, which usually have a higher hedge ratio. Cumulative year-to-date FX return by time zone AUD/USD moved within a narrow range this year, with the current price still below its beginning point. The Australian Dollar's underperformance mainly comes from selling pressure during European trading hours. US and Asian investors have shown a more neutral stance towards the Australian Dollar this year. Most of the Australian Dollar's losses happened during European trading hours, leading to a cumulative return of -2.8%. This negative performance during European hours contrasts with the positive cumulative return of the EUR/USD pair during the same period. With the expectation that the dollar might start to weaken again, AUD/USD, which has lagged behind European trading hours, has a potential for a rally. I will try to buy/long AUDUSD; it's a contrarian trade. AUD/USD realized volatility has bounced back quickly after hitting a low of 6.5 vol (which is in the bottom of the 5th percentile of the past 10 years) at the end of July. I favor OTM call options. The difference in implied volatility between short-term AUD puts, and calls (risk reversal) has widened sharply. So yes, the implied volatility for short-term puts has seen increased demand. The market is more worried about the AUD falling, perhaps a bit too worried. When everyone is hedged to the teeth, markets usually don't fall much, as it creates a synthetic floor in the market.
Long
by RomanoRnr
AUD/USD: Sideways Shuffle? Preparing for next big move!Alright, y'all, let’s dive into the AUD/USD 4-hour chart and see what’s poppin". Right now, we’re sitting in a consolidation zone between 0.67920 resistance and 0.66714 support, with price kinda just chilling around the 21-period EMA. It’s been moving sideways for a bit after that nice bullish push earlier in the month, and it seems like the market is catching its breath before the next move. The bulls did a solid job pushing the price up, but now they’re facing some resistance up at 0.67920. If we see a breakout above that level, we could potentially see a continuation of this uptrend, with price aiming for the next resistance levels. However, if the bears start flexing and we get a break below the 0.67725 area (and even more importantly, 0.66714), we could see a retracement back to lower levels, maybe testing that 200-period EMA down at 0.66105. At this moment, I’d say we’re in wait-and-see mode. If you’re already long, keep an eye on how price reacts at these key levels. For those looking to jump in, I’d be cautious and wait for a clear breakout or breakdown before committing. Stay patient and let the market show its hand!
by SheenaL
LOOKING FOR LONGER TERM BUYSAUD/USD 4H - With us recently having a BOS to the upside recently on the higher timeframes I believe that price is due a correction on the same timeframes to go on to set a new HIGHER Low, hence why I have marked out two areas of interest. I want to see price now pullback trading into one of two areas of Demand before taking us higher in the market, the reason for this is I believe price will now go on to set some longer term bullish structure. In order for us to capitalise on this new higher timeframe structure we need to find areas of interest that price will trade down and into before taking us higher in the market. Once price trade us into the areas below we want to see enough Demand introduced to flip the balance. I will be looking for a BOS to the upside, once we have that we will wait again for a pullback into a more fractal area of Demand to deem a refined entry, this is where we will buy into this market from.
Long
by Lukegforex
3
AUD/USD Sliding Down#trading_idea 💡 💸Pay Attention to #AUDUSD! On the hourly chart, the price is testing support 0.6778. Parabolic Sar Parabolic SAR pointed the dots above the price, potentially indicating a bearish momentum for the pair. At the same time RSI is close to the oversold zone. 🔽If the price breaks down key level 0.6778, a slide to support 0.6771 is possible. 🔼Otherwise, rebound and return to the resistance 0.6799 is likely. 👋 Show "👍" if you believe the price will increase and "👎" if you believe it will decrease. ➡️GET $20,000 JUST FOR $99
Short
by sabiotrade
AUD/USD: Price Faces Resistance After CPI ReleaseAUD/USD: Price Faces Resistance After CPI Release Today, the Australian Bureau of Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures. According to ForexFactory, the actual annual inflation rate was 3.5% (expected = 3.4%, previous = 3.8%). In other words, inflation in Australia is declining, but not at the pace that might have been hoped for. The initial reaction to the news was a sharp rise in the Australian dollar, with the AUD/USD rate increasing by approximately 0.4% in the first 15 minutes after the release. However, the price then returned to levels seen before the inflation news was released. How can this be interpreted? A technical analysis of the 4-hour AUD/USD chart shows that: → After the highly volatile 5 August, the price has been in an uptrend (as shown in blue). As a result of this rally, the price rose to the 0.680 level, where an important July peak was formed. → Following the inflation news, there was an attempt at a bullish breakout above this level, but it failed. Thus, the 0.680 level has confirmed its role as resistance. → The RSI indicator shows signs of bearish divergence, suggesting that the August rally may be fading. The ascending blue channel remains relevant for now, but the 0.680 level appears to be a significant test of the bulls' intentions. The inability of the AUD/USD price to hold above the 0.680 level today may lead to a correction towards the lower boundary of the channel. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
2
AUDUSD POSSIBLE SELLThe market is currently testing a major resistance zone based on weekly and monthly TF. I do see a possible reversal chart patternin the process of forming on the 4HR TF. Should the current level hold, we see some bearish momentum. Lets see how this will play out Disclaimer: Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is solely intended for educational and informational purposes only.The analysis provided is based on my own view of the market. Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. High-Risk Warning Trading in foreign exchange on margin entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. In this case, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and in your favor.
Short
by WiLLProsperForex
4
Australian CPI falls but markets not impressedThe Australian dollar continues to have a quiet week. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6796 in the European session, up 0.06% on the day at the time of writing. Australia’s inflation rate continued to decelerate in July, although the markets were hoping for more. CPI rose 3.5%, down from 3.8% in June but above the market estimate of 3.4%. This was the lowest figure since March but much of the decline was driven by electricity rebates which artificially lowered electricity prices. Core inflation eased but goods inflation remained flat. The markets weren’t impressed with the inflation data and the odds of a rate cut in November fell to 48%, down from 58% prior to the inflation release. The markets are more dovish than the Reserve Bank of Australia, which has discussed raising rates at recent meetings. The central bank is not satisfied with the pace of underlying inflation and has projected that it won’t return to the target band of 2% to 3% until the end of 2025. Governor Bullock has said that the Bank has no plans to cut for at least six months, but the markets are betting that the RBA won’t stay on the sidelines while the Fed and other major central banks are lowering rates. The financial markets are hanging onto every word from FOMC members and we’ll hear from members Christopher Waller later today and Rafael Bostic early on Thursday. As well, the US releases second estimate GDP for the second quarter on Thursday. The initial estimate showed the economy powering ahead with a 2.8% gain, double the 1.4% pace in Q1. The second estimate is expected to confirm the initial reading and confirm that the economy remains in solid shape, despite concerns about a weak employment labor which led to a market meltdown earlier this month. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6784. Below, there is support at 0.6771 0.6805 and 0.6818 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
AUDUSD InsightHello to all subscribers! Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don't forget to like and subscribe! At the Jackson Hole Symposium last week, Fed Chair Powell officially announced a pivot, indicating a possible interest rate cut. On the other hand, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey stated that while inflationary pressures are easing, it is too early to declare victory, and caution is needed to avoid excessive rate cuts. As a result, the pound hit its highest level in two years and five months, putting pressure on the dollar. Meanwhile, Michele Bullock, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, mentioned that it is still premature to cut the benchmark interest rate, adding that core inflation remains high and the economic outlook is very uncertain. - On August 29, Germany's August Consumer Price Index and the U.S. Q2 GDP will be released. - On August 30, the Eurozone's August Consumer Price Index and the U.S. July Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index will be released. - On September 4, Australia's Q2 GDP will be released. AUD/USD has risen to its previous high. It is expected that downward pressure will intensify from now on. Even if the rise continues, it is likely to form a top around the 0.69000 line. Resistance in this area could cause a short-term retreat to the 0.66000 line, after which a rebound and the formation of an upward trend are expected. If, contrary to expectations, the 0.69000 line is breached, or if the downward movement becomes excessively strong, we will quickly revise our strategy.
Short
by shawntime_academy