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USDAUD trade ideas

AUD/USD 2H | MAKE OR BREAK (Key Edge)🟡 AUD/USD 2H Analysis – June 19, 2025 Bias: Neutral → Reactive (Awaiting Breakout Direction) Timeframe: 2H 🔍 Market Overview: AUD/USD is approaching a make-or-break level at the confluence of an ascending trendline and a minor horizontal support around 0.6460–0.6470. This comes after price was rejected from the 2025 high (0.6555) — a significant technical ceiling, labeled as a Possible Reversal Point. ✳️ Technical Structure: 🔵 Upper wedge resistance rejected price twice (0.6555) 🔵 Support trendline has been respected since late May 🟠 Current zone (0.6460) = last line of bullish defense 🔻 Breakdown risk is rising due to lower highs & compression 🔼 Bullish Playbook (Bounce Scenario): Trigger: Bullish reaction from 0.6460 with strong momentum candle or engulfing Entry: 0.6465–0.6475 Stop: Below 0.6440 Target 1: 0.6515 Target 2: 0.6555 (2025 High / Upper Wedge Edge) R/R: ~2.0+ 🔽 Bearish Playbook (Breakdown Scenario): Trigger: 2H close below 0.6455 + retest rejection Entry: 0.6450–0.6445 on retest Stop: Above 0.6480 Target 1: 0.6400 (demand zone) Target 2: 0.6300 R/R: ~2.5+ The next 4–8 candles could define the near-term structure. Respect the edge — react, don’t predict. Zoom in: Please Manage Your Risk... #AUDUSD #MJTRADING #TRADINGVIEW #Chart #Analysis #Forex #Forexsignal #FXSignal
Short
by MJElahifx
2
AUDUSD – Type 2 AUTH Sell Setup (Weekly Bias | Tight Execution)Price is rejecting from a precision-based Type 2 Area of Liquidity (AOL) — a textbook scenario under the AUTH model, backed by higher-timeframe direction. Breakdown • Bias: Weekly momentum remains bearish with clean lower highs and fresh structure breaks • AOL Type 2: Price taps into refined supply zone within premium, mid-volume zone — no excess, no noise • Execution: Entry confirmed on lower timeframes after micro shift or rejection wick • Stop Loss: 7 pips only — precise risk, nothing emotional • Target: Continuation into inefficiency zones and previous internal demand • Invalidation: Close above AOL structure – no hesitation, no negotiation Disclaimer: This setup is shared for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always apply proper risk management and trade responsibly.
Short
by intraday_storm
AUDUSD Technical & Order Flow AnalysisOur analysis is based on a multi-timeframe top-down approach and fundamental analysis. Based on our assessment, the price is expected to return to the monthly level. DISCLAIMER: This analysis may change at any time without notice and is solely intended to assist traders in making independent investment decisions. Please note that this is a prediction, and I have no obligation to act on it, nor should you. Please support our analysis with a boost or comment!
Short
by dkb14246
1
AUDUSD Potential Long - Dependent on PA Market openAUD/USD Long Setup – 15M Chart Analysis Looking at a potential long on AUD/USD after price tapped into demand and swept liquidity. The area aligns with a fair value gap and previous order block, suggesting interest from larger players. Two Entry Options: 1. Aggressive: Buy limit at the order block (riskier, no confirmation). 2. Conservative: Wait for break of structure, then retest into FVG with bullish price action for confirmation. Targets: Target 1: 0.6470 Target 2: 0.6480 Target 3: 0.6490 Extended Target: 0.6530 (only if 0.6490 is breached and price holds above) Important Notes: This setup is forecast-based and depends on how price opens and reacts. Entry should follow a clear confirmation, especially after a liquidity sweep. Ideal confirmation: Break of structure followed by a retest with bullish PA on lower timeframes (M5/M1). Invalidation: A clean break and close below 0.6430 would invalidate this idea. Stay disciplined. Trade the plan, not the prediction.
Long
by SKA_CAPITAL
Trade Idea: Sell AUDUSD (Short-Term Weakness Setup) **📉 Trade Idea: Sell AUDUSD (Short-Term Weakness Setup)** **Bias:** 🔻 Bearish (Short-Term) | ⚖️ Medium-Term Neutral **Idea:** Aussie looks shaky — and USD weakness isn’t enough to carry it higher right now --- ### **💡 Why Sell?** **🇦🇺 AUD Struggling:** * RBA cut rates to 3.85% and left the door wide open for more 🔓 * China slowdown = bad news for Aussie’s export-linked economy 🐉📉 * Mixed commodity prices (iron ore stable, but others lagging) = no strong support 🛢️⛏️ * Market leaning bearish — rising net shorts and soft sentiment 🧊 **🇺🇸 USD Weak But Still Present:** * Fed is pausing, not panicking — still no full shift to dovish 🧘 * Real yields down, but not crashing → USD not collapsing 💵 * Safe-haven demand quiet but intact = mild USD cushion 🛡️ --- ### **📊 Technical Feel (Not Precise Levels, Just Chart Logic):** * **Lower highs forming:** Price keeps failing to make new pushes up — structure bending 🧱 * **Weak rallies:** Bulls trying, but no follow-through — candles fading fast 🎈 * **Price hovering near a breakdown zone:** Feels like a floor’s about to give way ⛳ * **Momentum flattening:** RSI & MACD both soft — energy’s draining ⬇️ * **Small body candles stacking:** Choppy indecision = no conviction from buyers 📉 * **Volume light on up-moves:** Nobody’s chasing — a bad sign for continuation 📭 --- ### **⚠️ Invalidation Clue:** > If bulls step in hard with strong green candles and wide ranges → stand aside 📛 > But unless they do, short-term drift lower looks more likely --- ### **🎯 Summary:** AUDUSD looks unmotivated. AUD is soft across the board, and USD doesn’t need to be strong to take advantage. If momentum stays weak, this pair likely **grinds lower** before finding any real support.
Short
by Wainainarobert
AUDUSD Trading Opportunity! BUY! My dear subscribers, This is my opinion on the AUDUSD next move: The instrument tests an important psychological level 0.6464 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 0.6495 About Used Indicators: On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
1
The US dollar decline is a massive opportunity Hey all, just a thesis i've had for a while now and there is many charts and data points ive used to get confidence in this. Short term I see the AUD decreasing on the lower demand for out exports (iron, coal, copper), Also house I see an economic contraction likely as house prices have already priced out many and borrowing cost are still elevated from the pandemic lows. With the uncertainty of a possible trade wars, military wars and energy prices i dont see the RBA or Fed lowering rates to what the market is expecting. This will also help the short term decline of the AUD. But once more clarity, economic activity picks up and stimulus either from the fed lowering rates and/or government spending more to keep voters this will fundamentally show the over supply of USD. After all recessions and then subsequent stimulus the USD rises for the crisis and then declines for the next 2 years on Average I see the same playing out but most likely to an even greater scale given the major over supply and focus on the USD.
by jackwheeler
1
AUD/USD: The Clearest Short Opportunity This WeekThis week, the macro and market landscape provides a rare alignment across all major models—making AUD/USD the standout short opportunity among G10 FX pairs. Key Reasons for the Bearish AUD/USD Bias: 1. Commitment of Traders (COT): Institutional positioning has turned decisively bearish on the Australian dollar, with net shorts increasing and sentiment remaining negative. 2. Z-Score & Positioning Extremes: Z-Score indicators confirm a below-average long bias for AUD, highlighting that recent speculative flows are heavily skewed to the short side. 3. EXO/Score Model: Our EXO (macro scoring) model gives AUD/USD a clear SHORT rating, with no offsetting bullish factors in the “core” or “risk/reward” signals. 4. Commodity Edge – Iron Ore: Iron ore prices, a crucial driver for AUD, have sharply declined in recent weeks. This is a classic “canary in the coal mine” for AUD weakness historically, persistent iron ore declines precede broader AUD selloffs. 5. Sentiment & Risk Environment: Despite global “risk-on” sentiment, AUD is unable to benefit, as both macro and market participants rotate away from commodity FX and into USD strength. 6. Endo (Fundamental) Model: While Australia’s macro data still looks solid on a lagging basis, all faster models (positioning, flows, sentiment, commodities) point to an imminent shift typically, ENDO lags in catching turning points. Conclusion & Tactical View: SHORT AUD/USD is the highest conviction trade for this week, backed by full alignment of macro, positioning, sentiment, and real-economy factors. Expect continued downside pressure while commodity markets and COT data remain bearish. For active traders, the first 3–7 days following this setup historically provide the highest reward-to-risk moves.
Short
by Idealadvantage
AUDUSDAUD/USD: 10-Year Bond Yields, Interest Rate Differential, UIP, and Carry Trade 1. Current Rates and Yield Differential Metric Australia (AUD) United States (USD) Differential (AUD - USD) 10-Year Bond Yield 4.21% 4.38% -0.17% (-17 bps) Policy Interest Rate 3.85% 4.25%–4.50% -0.40% to -0.65% Australia's 10-year yield eased to 4.21% on June 20, 2025, after RBA rate cuts. The US 10-year yield held at 4.38% amid Fed policy stability. The negative yield spread (-17 bps) reflects Australia's lower long-term rates relative to the US. 2. Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) UIP Theory: Predicts that currency exchange rates should adjust to offset interest rate differentials. For AUD/USD: This implies the AUD should depreciate against the USD to neutralize the rate advantage. Empirical Reality: UIP often fails short-term. Since 2008, higher-yield currencies (like USD) frequently appreciate, contradicting UIP. 3. Carry Trade Dynamics Strategy: Borrow AUD at 3.85% and invest in USD at 4.38% for a positive carry of +0.53%. Risks: AUD appreciation risk: Economists forecast AUD/USD rising to 0.65–0.67 by end-2025, potentially eroding gains. Volatility: US tariff policies and global trade uncertainty amplify currency swings. 4. Market Outlook AUD Drivers: RBA rate cuts (3.85%) and commodity dependence may limit AUD strength despite forecasts. USD Drivers: Fed's "higher for longer" stance (4.25%–4.50%) supports USD yield appeal. Carry Viability: The USD-funded carry (borrow AUD → invest USD) offers modest gains but requires hedging against AUD appreciation risks. Key Relationships Summary Concept AUD/USD Implication Current Status Yield Spread Negative (-17 bps) → USD yield advantage Favors USD investments UIP Condition AUD should depreciate; often fails AUD appreciation likely Carry Trade +0.53% carry (USD-funded) Profitable if AUD stable/weak Primary Risk AUD appreciation erodes carry returns Forecast: AUD ↑ to 0.67 Conclusion The negative yield spread (-17 bps) and interest rate differential (-0.40% to -0.65%) favor USD investments over AUD. UIP predicts AUD depreciation but historically fails; AUD is instead projected to appreciate to 0.67 in 2025. Carry trades borrowing AUD to invest in USD offer a +0.53% yield pickup but face significant risk from forecasted AUD strength. Investors should monitor RBA/Fed policy shifts and global trade tensions for carry trade adjustments. #AUDUSD
by Shavyfxhub
AUDUSD LONG & SHORT FORECAST Q2 W25 D19 Y25AUDUSD LONG & SHORT FORECAST Q2 W25 D19 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside intraday confirmation & breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 🔥 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅4H Order block identified ✅1H Order block identified ✅15’ order block ✅Intraday bullish breaks of structure 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
by JCFRGNT
AUDUSD H1 I Bearish Reversal Based on the H4 chart, the price could rise toward our sell entry level at 0.6499, a pullback resistance. Our take profit is set at 0.6468, a support level. The stop loss is set at 0.6524, a swing high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by Tradu
Audusd setup Here's a bullish analysis on AUD/USD (generic and adaptable to most timeframes; if you want it based on a specific chart or timeframe, let me know): --- 📈 AUD/USD Bullish Analysis 1. Support Zone Holding Strong: AUD/USD has established a firm support level around where price has bounced multiple times. Recent price action shows a double bottom or rounded base formation, indicating demand buildup. 2. Bullish Trendline Formation: A new higher low structure is forming, suggesting a shift in momentum. Price is respecting a short-term ascending trendline, signaling continued buying interest. 3. Breakout Confirmation: A bullish breakout above the 0.6650 resistance opens room for an upward move. Next target levels: 0.6700 and 0.6780. 4. RSI & Momentum Indicators: RSI trending above 50, showing strength. Bullish divergence on momentum indicators confirms possible upside continuation. 5. Fundamentals (Optional Context): AUD supported by improving risk sentiment and commodity strength (especially iron ore and gold). USD weakening slightly due to lower rate hike expectations from the Fed. --- 🎯 Bullish Targets: Entry zone: 0.6620–0.6640 Target 1: 0.6700 Target 2: 0.6780 Stop-loss: Below support
Short
by Forex_ViP_Signalss
1
Could the Aussie bounce from here?The price is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit. Entry: 0.6455 Why we like it: There is an overlap support that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 0.6407 Why we like it: There is a pullback support that aligns with the 145% Fibonacci extension. Take profit: 0.6513 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets