USDAUD trade ideas
AUDUSD - stronger dollar, what consequences will it have for us?The AUDUSD currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. In case of a valid failure of the support range, we can see the bottom of the downward channel and buy in that range with a suitable risk reward. If the downward momentum decreases, we will look for buy positions on the support range.
According to the official data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Thursday, Australia’s retail sales index increased by 0.8% in November compared to the previous month. In October, the index had grown by 0.5% after being revised down from an initial 0.6%. However, this growth fell short of market expectations, which had predicted a 1.0% rise.
Additionally, newly released foreign trade data from the ABS on Thursday showed that Australia’s trade surplus reached AUD 7,079 million in November, surpassing the market forecast of AUD 5,750 million and the previous month’s revised figure of AUD 5,670 million (adjusted from AUD 5,953 million).
Details of the report indicate that Australian exports rose by 4.8% month-over-month in November, compared to a revised 3.5% in October. Meanwhile, imports grew by 1.7% in November, compared to a flat 0% growth in October (adjusted from 0.1%)Meanwhile, JPMorgan reported that the US dollar has maintained its value contrary to expectations and may continue to do so. However, the bank’s analysts believe further appreciation of the dollar is limited.
Key Factors Influencing the US Dollar
• Global Growth Divergence and Central Bank Policies:
Disparities in global economic growth have led to significant differences in monetary policies. Additionally, the yield gap between US 10-year bonds and those of key trading partners has reached its highest level since 1994.
• Sustained Strength of the US Dollar:
Despite two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024, the US dollar appreciated by 7%. The real effective exchange rate (REER) also remains near its historical peak.
• Reasons Behind Dollar Strength:
1. Economic Growth Disparity: The US economy grew by 2.7% in 2024, compared to 1.7% growth in other developed markets.
2. Monetary Policy Differences: The limited rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (44 basis points projected for 2025) compared to larger cuts by the European Central Bank (110 basis points) and rate hikes by Japan (47 basis points) have sustained the yield gap.
3. Policy Shifts: New government policies, such as domestic production support, tariffs, and deregulation, could bolster economic growth and strengthen the dollar.
• Long-term Constraints on Dollar Strength:
1. The US dollar is historically overvalued (two standard deviations above the 50-year average), indicating limited room for further appreciation.
2. Structural issues, such as the US trade deficit (4.2% of GDP as of September 2024), could eventually pressure the dollar downward.
• Impacts of Dollar Strength:
1. Challenges for US-Based Investors: A strong dollar could reduce the performance of international companies and increase export costs.
2. Negative Effects on US Companies with Extensive International Operations: These businesses might suffer due to the dollar’s strength.
Assessing risks related to the dollar’s strength is essential for investors. While the dollar may continue to rise in the short term, structural factors and historical trends suggest significant downward pressure in the long term.
AUDUSD BUY ANALYSIS DOUBLE BOTTOM PATTERN Here on Audusd price form a double bottom and now try to go up so if line 0.63080 break price is likely to move more and trader should go for long and expect profit target of 0.63622 and 0.64285 . Use money management
AUD/USD Trading Plan Long/Short Swing TradeThe pair has reached a 2 years low (0.6200).
There are two scenario's that I will be following.
Scenario 1 Long
To trigger a long entry there are a few thing I wish to see before I enter go long.
1. Break of the down slopping trend line around 0.6300 level
2. Creation of new HH and HL (New up-slopping trendline)
3. Break of the resistance level at 0.6350
4. re-test of the level or a fundamental catalyst to give the power for a strong break out
5. Cross of the EMA100
For this entry I will target the 0.6550 level and SL bellow the last HL
Scenario 2 Short (Following the current down trend)
the only additional confirmation I will need for a short entry is the break and re-test of 0.6200 level, also a look on the volume indicators.
The level I will target is 0.6000 super old support level(4.5 years)
For my Day trade position I will be using the same levels as reference, using more of chart/candle patterns on 1 and 4h hours time frames for 30-40 pips targets.
I hope you enjoyed or find useful this information, feedback is always welcome.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
AUDUSD BULLISH SHARKHarmonic Pattern Trading Strategy:
1. Combine patterns with 2-3 confirmations (e.g., MA, BB, RSI, Stoch).
2. Implement proper risk management.
3. Limit exposure to 3% of capital per trade.
Disciplined approach = Enhanced edge.
audusd 1haudusd 1h supply outside the range . clean drop base trade with nice impulse away and fair value below
Australian dollar falls as core CPI dips lowerThe Australian dollar is lower for a second straight trading day. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6214, down 0.27% at the time of writing. The Australian dollar dropped as low as 0.60% but has pared much of those losses.
Australia's inflation report was a mixed bag in November. Headline inflation rose 2.3% y/y, up from 2.1% in the previous two months and above the market estimate of 2.2%. This marked the highest level since August and was partially driven by a lower electricity rebate for most households.
At the same time, the trimmed mean inflation, the Reserve Bank of Australia's preferred core inflation gauge, fell from 3.5% to 3.2% in November. This reading is close to the upper limit of the RBA's target band of 2%-3% and supports the case for the RBA to join the other major central banks in lowering rates.
The RBA has maintained the cash rate at 4.35% at nine consecutive meetings but is this prolonged pause about to end? In the aftermath of today's inflation report, the money markets have priced in a quarter-point hike in February at over 70%. Australia releases the quarterly inflation report for the fourth quarter on Jan. 29 and if inflation is lower than expected, expectations of a rate cut will likely increase.
The US economy has been solid and this week's services and employment indicators headed higher. The ISM Services PMI rose to 54.1 in December, up from 52.1 and above the market estimate of 53.3. JOLT Job Openings jumped to 8.09 million in November and 7.8 million in October. The market is looking ahead to Friday's nonfarm payrolls, which is expected to drop to 154 thousand, compared to 227 thousand in November.
AUD/USD tested support at 0.6214 earlier. Below, there is support at 0.6182
0.6250 and 0.6282 are the next resistance lines
AUSUSD BULLISH BATBAT PATTERN
The Harmonic Pattern SHOULD NOT be used in isolation.
Combine it with 2 or 3 other confirmations to have an extra edge.
(Moving average cross, Bollinger bands, RSI, stoch ... Basically any other indicator/system you're very familiar with).
- Use Proper Risk Management on each trade.
- DO NOT expose more than 3% of your capital on each trade.
All measurements in place
AUDUSD - LongAUDUSD Analysis - LONG 👆
In this Chart AUDUSD D1 Timeframe: By Nii_Billions.
❤️This Chart is for AUDUSD market analysis.
❤️Entry, SL, and Target is based off our Strategy.
This chart analysis uses multiple timeframes to analyze the market and to help see the bigger picture on the charts.
The strategy uses technical and fundamental factors, and market sentiment to predict a BULLISH trend in AUDUSD, with well-defined entry, stop loss, and take profit levels for risk management.
🟢This idea is purely for educational purposes.🟢
❤️Please, support our work with like & comment!❤️
AUD USD Swing High Using basic swing market structure, expecting a bullish trend to indicated angles.
AUD/USD BEARS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
AUD/USD pair is in the uptrend because previous week’s candle is green, while the price is evidently rising on the 1H timeframe. And after the retest of the resistance line above I believe we will see a move down towards the target below at 0.625 because the pair overbought due to its proximity to the upper BB band and a bearish correction is likely.
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AUDUSD expected to fall againOn the daily chart, AUDUSD is running below the downward trend line, and the bearish trend is dominant. The intraday market formed an inside bar break, and it is expected to continue to fall in the short term. At present, we can pay attention to the support near 0.618. If it falls below, it will go to around 0.610. The effective resistance above is around 0.630.
AUDUSD SELL ANALYSIS DOUBLE TOP PATTERN Here on Audusd price has form a double top pattern and now try to fall in other to complete the support area so trader should go for short and expect profit target of 0.61828 . Use money management
uptrendIt is expected that the trend will change in the current support range and we will see the start of the upward trend.
To continue the upward trend, the resistance range needs to be broken
AUDUSD InsightHello, subscribers!
It's great to see you all. Please feel free to share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe!
Key Points:
- The U.S. December Services PMI came in at 54.1, exceeding both the previous month’s figure and market expectations.
- The U.S. November JOLTS report showed 8.1 million job openings, surpassing the previous figure of 7.84 million and the forecast of 7.73 million.
- Strong U.S. employment data and robust service sector indicators are interpreted as supporting the Federal Reserve’s decision to halt monetary easing. Markets expect no further rate cuts until at least March.
- Japan's Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato stated that the recent forex market has shown unilateral and rapid movements, and appropriate measures will be taken to address excessive volatility.
This Week's Major Economic Events:
+ January 8: U.S. December ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
+ January 9: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes
+ January 10: U.S. December Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
AUD/USD Chart Analysis:
After confirming a bottom near the 0.62000 level, the pair rebounded and climbed to the 0.63000 level but failed to break through. While there’s still a possibility of a rise toward the 0.63500 level, a break below the 0.62000 level would fully shift the trend to a bearish outlook, potentially targeting the 0.60000 level. Therefore, it’s crucial to monitor whether the 0.62000 level holds as support or is broken during this move.
AUDUSD SHORTbased on the technicals of the 4h and 1h, I would expect this to approach the 0.63000 level once more before falling(asian session). At london open I will be looking for rejection of this level and will begin taking short positions when possible.
AUDUSD Scenario 1.1.2025The trade is still going according to plan, I'm just not sure if we have the SFP confirmed or not, after the SFP is set below the low, we can consider a long position, I'm still out of the market for now.
AUDUSD FORECASTTraders! This is another opportunity that comes ahead. When I look higher timeframe especially 4H, It gives me strong reason as to why I can look this pair with a close eye. I think we have to to be patient to see how and where price will allow us to get into it.
Bearish Pennant on AUD/USD @ D1A bearish pennant similar to the one we currently see on the NZD/USD chart has also formed on the D1 chart of the AUD/USD pair. As is the case with bearish pennants, it can be used for a bearish breakout setup. The pennant and its pole are shown with the yellow lines. My potential stop-loss level is marked with the red line (0.62747), it is placed at the high of the pennant area. My potential take-profit level is marked with the green line (0.60961), it is placed at the pole's length below the stop-loss. I will wait for a significant close below the pennant's border to consider trading this breakout.
AUD/USD will go upThe price has breakout the short term down trend line and stand up on the group of MAs. Guppy EMAs are processing gold cross now. MACD divergency displayed in 4 hours timeframe. It is moving up to the long term down trend channel top line area, there would be possibility to break up the down trend channel and move to North.
There would be some sideway shocking in following time, so, we could entry long in multiple positions. If the direction going wrong (continue south), it still has chance to safely close the long trades.
