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U.S. Dollar / Brazilian Real

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USDBRL trade ideas

Major Trend Reversal based on Al Brooks theory; 40% probability.Subjective analysis based on the Al Brooks method. We have a broad bullish channel, and within that channel we have an upward and downward trend. If the context continues in the same way (it will probably continue until the market cycle changes) it is possible to imagine a new bearish leg that sets up a new bearish trend within the broad bullish channel illustrated. In addition, a major trend reversal sequence (from high to low) was noted in a region of resistance of the bullish broad channel + high climate bar in the region of resistance. According to the theory, we will have a 40% chance of reaching a 2 to 1 target, however, in my opinion we have a little more probability, I would say more than 60% of reaching the first target, due to the macro context in which the broad channel discharge is inserted.
Short
by igrode
Brazilian real is a buy here. Buy a basket of EMFX vs the USD Coming into the new year, the reflationary trade was working quite well. In January, we saw a period of heightened volatility that stressed emerging markets. Brazil was no exception. That said, the weak dollar trend looks likely to resume in the next few months, after the positioning shake-out that we saw in January. Many hedge funds are still on the sidelines and scared to commit capital to risk-assets. They will be forced to do so in March when performance benchmarks come out. EMFX and commodity exporters should continue to perform strongly as the US pursues the largest stimulus package in history. Recently, the USD looks on the verge of breaking out to the upside, though I would much rather fade this move with a tight stop. In Brazil specifically, the likelihood of Selic rates being raised increases the chance of currency appreciation. There are no real organic sellers above 5.40. The risk/reward is for the BRL to rally significantly from here.
Short
by MT-Macro
6
A peek into the sugar's futureAccording to Investopedia , Brazil is top leading sugar producer globally. So , we take a look at its currency; USDBRL and discovered that since Jan 2020, it has appreciated against the USD for more than 50%. This trend should continue towards the rest of 2020 and likely the first half of 2021 too. That being the backdrop, then we can assume sugar price to continue going higher, breaking the 15.78 price resistance soon. I am bullish on sugar !
Long
by dchua1969
ridethepig | BRL for the Yearly Close📌 BRL for the Yearly Close This diagram illustrates the LT map for those in BRL and tracking Brazil for good opportunities into 2021. According to my INR maps, again a very similar cycle count which is decisive for profit taking: The BRL now has the attacking position at the highs after completing a multi decade 5 wave cycle from 1.50 towards 6.00. But here is the weakness, we are already seeing profit taking as the USD enters into a structural decline, we have yet to mention the advantage Brazil has with particular focus on the agriculture side. The correct ways to play this in equities also come from companies like $ALTA which was one of the first gold mining companies to capture the 2020 flows in Brazil. It is reaching an initial target to that in the expectations, now add BRL appreciation to the mix and you can see how we arrive at the 600% targets: A very good luck to those looking for opps in Brazil, the currency is not afraid of the flank attack and note anyway that you can capture value on Brazilian exports into countries like USD and MXN. Just note how nearest support at 4.63x is -10% from here and the extension below at 3.9xx is -23% from current levels, both are in play for 2021. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
5