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U.S. DOLLAR / BRENT CRUDE OILU.S. DOLLAR / BRENT CRUDE OILU.S. DOLLAR / BRENT CRUDE OIL

U.S. DOLLAR / BRENT CRUDE OIL

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USDBRO trade ideas

The Inevitable Descent of UKOILIn the shadow of a market that continues to revel in its own delusions, I find myself compelled to address the elephant in the room – or rather, the oil in the barrel that is UKOIL. We stand on the precipice of what I predict to be a significant correction, one that will see UKOIL prices plummeting to the region of $48 per barrel. Why the Fall? OPEC+'s decision to phase out additional output cuts by September 2025, announced in June last year, is a clear signal. The return of 2.2 million barrels per day to the market, should market dynamics permit, will flood an already saturated market. Despite the rhetoric of control, the reality is that OPEC+'s spare capacity, currently at 5.9 million barrels per day, limits any significant price increase. This, coupled with near-record production levels from non-OPEC countries like the United States, sets the stage for an oversupply scenario. The notion that demand will continue to grow unchecked is flawed. Global oil consumption growth is expected to slow dramatically from 2.3 million barrels per day in 2023 to 1.1 million in 2024, with similar levels in 2025. This deceleration is driven by multiple factors including the rise of electric vehicles, increasing efficiency in traditional vehicles, and a stuttering economic recovery in major markets like China. The market's current bullishness is more sentiment than substance. Indicators like the Stoch RSI currently at 77.9 suggest we are nearing overbought territory, a strong indication that a reversal could be imminent. This high reading, combined with the parabolic SAR signaling an upward trend now, might just be the last gasp before a significant correction. The technical and fundamental analyses converge on a bearish outlook. Long Forecast anticipates Brent oil, which closely tracks UKOIL, to hover around $60-$65 by 2026 before a potential rebound. This, combined with other forecasts suggesting a further decline in demand, paints a picture not of a soft landing, but of a sharp descent. If we extrapolate current trends and market sentiment shifts, $48 is not just a possibility but a probable near-term floor. Investors should consider reducing exposure to oil-related equities or hedge against the risk through diversification into non-correlated assets. For those with the stomach for risk, this scenario presents a unique opportunity to short UKOIL CFDs. In closing, let us not be swayed by the siren song of current market highs. The fundamentals, much like gravity, will eventually pull prices back to earth. Prepare for the storm, for it's not a matter of if, but when. Horban Brothers. Alex Kostenich
FX:UKOILShort
by horbanbrothers
Black gold may continue to rise.Hello everyone! The price of oil has been trading within a descending parallel channel for several days, with the bulls holding the support level at 78.50. If the price breaks through the upper boundary of the channel, the bulls might attempt to push it towards the next resistance level at 84.00 for Brent. Considering the impact of news on oil prices, I believe it’s wise to lock in profits at potential reversal zones. Stop-loss should be placed at the local low. On the daily timeframe, we can see that further growth is possible as part of the fifth wave of the impulse.
TVC:UKOILLong
by AUREA_RATIO
Brent Crude Oil At Key Resistance - Will It Drop to 78.00?ICMARKETS:XBRUSD is at a key resistance area, marked by historical price reactions and strong selling pressure. This zone has been a reliable turning point for bearish reversals in the past. If bearish confirmation emerges, such as strong upper wicks or bearish candlestick patterns, I expect the price to move toward 78.00. A breakout above this resistance, however, would invalidate the bearish scenario. Traders should remain cautious and use proper risk management when approaching this level.
ICMARKETS:XBRUSDShort
by DanieIM
Brent - What will Trump's oil policies be?!Brent oil is in the 4-hour timeframe, between EMA200 and EMA50 and is moving in its medium-term ascending channel. We will look for oil selling opportunities on the supply zone. If the $75 level is broken, we can see the continuation of the downtrend. On the other hand, we can buy in the demand zone with a risk-reward approach. When Donald Trump launched his election campaign, he threatened to impose 25% tariffs on America’s largest trading partners unless they addressed their trade surpluses with the U.S. Analysts described this idea as risky. However, Bloomberg has reported that, while this strategy is far from subtle, it has proven effective. This threat turned importers into U.S. customers. Energy importers from Asian countries began purchasing more crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States, aiming to appease Trump before he took any action on tariffs. Saul Kavonic, an energy analyst at MST Marquee, told Bloomberg that U.S. trading partners view LNG purchases as a tool for negotiating tariffs with the Trump administration. He added that since last November’s election, orders for U.S. energy shipments have risen. Shortly after the election, Trump specifically suggested that the European Union should buy more LNG from the U.S. to offset its significant trade surplus. At the time, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, stated there was no reason why the EU couldn’t replace Russian LNG with American liquefied gas. However, her statement was perhaps not the most well-considered. The EU’s preference for Russian LNG and its hesitation toward American LNG primarily stems from pricing issues. Even this year, the region’s purchases of Russian LNG have reached record levels. As reported by the Financial Times earlier this week, the EU is highly sensitive to price considerations. According to an EU official, price remains a critical and determining factor. Bernd Lange, head of the European Parliament’s trade committee, previously remarked that Europe’s demand for LNG could align with America’s eagerness to sell more.He added that discussions on this issue are feasible. Trump has consistently emphasized his interest in deals that benefit the United States above all. On his first day in office, Trump revoked Biden’s executive order that halted permits for new LNG export capacity. This decision will expand U.S. export capacity over the next four years, potentially lowering prices depending on demand levels. The World Trade Organization’s chief warned that reciprocal tariff retaliation could result in a double-digit reduction in global GDP, a scenario that would have catastrophic consequences.
BLACKBULL:BRENTShort
by Ali_PSND
Brent correction after Trump's speechBy Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades Brent prices have remained virtually unchanged in recent sessions, correcting -4.57% since the 15th and closing with a slight change of -0.05% this Thursday. The oil market continues to navigate uncertain waters, affected by geopolitical factors, political commentary and mixed signals on global demand. Key factors influencing Brent 1. Political pressure in Davos: Former President Donald Trump's recent remarks at the World Economic Forum have put the spotlight on OPEC+, calling for a reduction in oil prices. While the direct influence of these comments is limited, they have added volatility to the market and generated speculation about possible production adjustments. 2. OPEC+ Expectations: Production cuts led by Saudi Arabia and its allies have maintained some support for crude oil prices. However, any change in the group's strategy could alter the supply-demand balance. 3. Global economic outlook: Market attention is also focused on monetary policy decisions, particularly signals from the European Central Bank (ECB). A higher rate environment could dampen economic activity and thus reduce oil demand. Technical Analysis Brent has faced a strong resistance zone at $81.72, made a triple touch and bounced strongly to $77.02. A fairly strong range has been generated between $70 and $82. The strongest pressure zone being the $72.50 price zone. Noting that the current price zone is the piercing zone of the last upward momentum, we need to watch to see if this zone breaks down, which would lead us to pull the price back in the direction of $74. If this does not happen, we may see an advance that attempts to pierce the indicated resistance zone again. There is more likelihood of a bearish directionality at this time due to the global information indicated, so the trade should exploit short trades. Outlook for Brent Brent continues to reflect a fragile balance between concerns about a global economic slowdown and supply constraints imposed by major producers. In the short term, statements from political leaders, inventory data and global growth expectations will continue to drive crude oil prices. In this environment, investors remain alert to any changes in supply and demand dynamics, seeking clarity in a market that remains in constant adjustment. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:BRENTShort
by ActivTrades
Brent Crude Oil: Long-Term Bullish BiasBrent Crude Oil has been consolidating for months, forming a strong base of support. Recently, we’re seeing a push to the upside, signaling the potential start of a new bullish trend. Additionally, the ongoing sanctions on Russian oil by the USA could significantly cut down supply, creating upward pressure on prices. With this momentum and geopolitical factors in play, my long-term bias remains bullish as we may see price breaking out of consolidation and targeting higher levels.
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by ChampionsFx
Brent Oil Price Drops from 2025 HighBrent Oil Price Drops from 2025 High If you follow FXOpen’s publications, you may recall how in 2024, we repeatedly analysed the XBR/USD chart and drew several key parallel lines. For example, in our publication at the end of November. This is significant because the uppermost of the three lines drawn last year acted as resistance, where the current peak of 2025 was formed, as shown by the arrow. Price fluctuations in the context of these three lines can be interpreted as follows: → The middle line suggests the zone where the fair value of a barrel is likely to be. This is supported by the fact that at the beginning of 2025, the price consolidated near the middle line around the $76 mark; → The rise to the upper line indicated an overbought market condition. Subsequently, like a pendulum, the price of Brent oil began to move in the opposite direction – down towards the middle line, where the fair value is presumably located. The current dominance of sellers is supported by: → Trump’s intentions to develop new oil fields, increase exports, and move away from the “green transition”; → A reduction in geopolitical tensions – notably, the ceasefire and prisoner exchanges between Israel and Hamas. It is possible that the sellers’ momentum will continue, as the revival of the US economy through cheap oil may be part of the strategic plans of the new team in the White House, which would drive the trend towards the middle line on the XBR/USD chart. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
2
Moustafa! Brent Crude Oil towards the uptrend line back 06.01.25* It has to return back to the purple uptrend line and touch it to gain back the buy power in case if it meant to go further more to the upside later on * It broke already another uptrend line on lower time frames which confirms the bearish move! Note: My ideas are exclusive to myself only and is not regarded as an advice for traders or investors and are not more than personal thoughts which I just wanted to share with you all and I do hope they could help. I am not selling any signals and I do not take money favour any trades recommendations. They are free of charge all lifelong but I keep the copy rights of them though to not be copied or shared or sold.
BLACKBULL:BRENTShort
by moustafa_marei
Moustafa! Brent Crude Oil to 73935 (09.01.25)* Broke the downtrend line on the daily frame * Will go back all the way back close to the point the price surged up from when it broke before an important downtrend line which led to all the bullish wave which i sat an idea before for it and we hit the 4TPs on it.. Now it is the short move turn! Note: My ideas are exclusive to myself only and is not regarded as an advice for traders or investors and are not more than personal thoughts which I just wanted to share with you all and I do hope they could help. I am not selling any signals and I do not take money favour any trades recommendations. They are free of charge all lifelong but I keep the copy rights of them though to not be copied or shared or sold.
BLACKBULL:BRENTShort
by moustafa_marei
UKOIL - Short SetupMy main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels. In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key liquidity level and left untouched level lower, this indicates on probable distribution Wyckoff range. But to take more statistically probable trades we should wait for some type of lower timeframe confirmation, and in this case we can notice sign of weakness (reaching the middle of the range), so potentially there is a higher probability to see price lower. Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
FX:UKOILShort
by Maks_Klimenko
XBRUSD | 17.01.2025SELL 81.90 | STOP 83.40 | TAKE 79.80 | This week, the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy (EIA) published reports on reserves. Thus, a decrease in volumes was recorded by 2,600 million barrels after a decrease of 4.022 million barrels a week earlier and by 1,962 million barrels from -0.959 million barrels earlier. As for trading volumes, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), demand for oil contracts has been steadily increasing since January 10 and amounted to 1.750 million per day the day before, compared with 0.950 million per day in the first week of the new year.
ICMARKETS:XBRUSDShort
by ALALEDX
Brent - Peace returned to the Middle East?!Brent oil is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour time frame and is moving in its upward channel. On the ceiling of the ascending channel, we will look for oil selling positions. In case of a valid break of the $80 range, we can see the continuation of the downward trend. On the other hand, within the demand zone, we can buy with a suitable risk reward. Brent crude oil prices have surpassed $80 per barrel. This price increase continues to be supported by declining U.S. crude oil inventories and uncertainties surrounding Russian oil supplies following new U.S. sanctions. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has stated that the latest U.S. sanctions have the potential to significantly disrupt Russia’s energy exports. These sanctions have blacklisted over one-fifth of the tanker fleet transporting Russian oil. Last week, 160 sanctioned tankers transported over 1.6 million barrels per day of Russian oil in 2024, accounting for approximately 22% of the country’s maritime exports. However, the IEA has maintained its current outlook on Russia’s oil supply and will update it based on future developments. Meanwhile, reports indicate that Israel and Hamas have reached a ceasefire agreement, though Israel’s Prime Minister’s Office stated that details are yet to be finalized. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu thanked U.S. President-elect Donald Trump for his role in the Gaza agreement and announced plans to meet him in Washington soon. Netanyahu also expressed gratitude to U.S. President Joe Biden for aiding in the hostage agreement. A senior Hamas official confirmed the group’s commitment to the ceasefire proposed by mediators. In the oil market, attention remains focused on uncertainties surrounding Russian oil supply after the announcement of stricter U.S. sanctions. Additionally, declining U.S. crude oil inventories provide further support for prices. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 1.96 million barrels last week to under 413 million barrels, the lowest level since March 2022. This decline was primarily due to a decrease in crude oil imports by 304,000 barrels per day and an increase in exports by 1 million barrels per day. In refined products, despite a 1.6% drop in refinery utilization, gasoline and distillate inventories rose by 5.85 million barrels and 3.08 million barrels, respectively. The Colonial Pipeline, which transports about 1.5 million barrels per day of gasoline from the U.S. Gulf Coast to the East Coast, is expected to remain closed until Friday following a leak earlier this week. This has provided limited upward support to gasoline prices. The IEA and OPEC have both released their monthly oil market reports. The IEA warned that new U.S. sanctions on Russia’s energy sector could lead to supply disruptions. Additionally, the agency revised its global oil demand growth forecast upward due to colder weather in the Northern Hemisphere. The IEA estimates that global oil demand in 2024 will increase by 940,000 barrels per day, 90,000 barrels per day higher than the previous estimate. For 2025, demand is expected to grow by 1.05 million barrels per day. OPEC, in its monthly report, maintained its 2025 oil demand growth estimate at 1.45 million barrels per day. For 2026, the group’s initial forecast predicts an increase of 1.43 million barrels per day. OPEC also kept its 2025 supply growth estimate for non-OPEC+ countries unchanged at 1.11 million barrels per day and expects a similar increase for 2026. OPEC’s production in December rose slightly to 26.74 million barrels per day, while overall OPEC+ output fell by 14,000 barrels per day to 40.65 million barrels per day due to reduced production in Kazakhstan. OPEC data indicates that demand for OPEC+ crude in 2025 will reach 42.5 million barrels per day and rise to 42.7 million barrels per day in 2026. Iraq’s Oil Minister Hayan Abdul-Ghani told Reuters that Iraq plans to sign a major oil and gas deal in Kirkuk with BP by early February. He noted that this deal will surpass the scale of the major 2023 agreement with TotalEnergies.
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by Ali_PSND
Crude OIL Follow the plan Oil is one of the main tools that pressure the global economy. This tool is manually controlled; I will not repeat who owns it. For the last 10 years, I have seen this pattern very often when we see a triangle that breaks down, but before it collects liquidity from above and breaks the upper resistance I talked about it in a previous post The idea is still the same; the timings are stretched longer. I intend to pick up a historical start this year, most likely at the end of the year. That's my lazy plan. The realization is more complicated because opening a position at the ideal entry point will be challenging. All shorts will be liquidated and stop out for a long time, so we will probably have to stand in the reversal formation phase for a long time. I could go on and on about politics and how it's explained to you on TV. But I don't do that. Best regards EXCAVO
FX:UKOIL
by EXCAVO
4
Brent Oil Price Retreats from a 3-Month HighBrent Oil Price Retreats from a 3-Month High On January 6, while analysing the XBR/USD chart, we: → constructed an upward structure using blue trend lines; → highlighted the potential for a pullback after the formation of peaks A and B around the $76.20 level. What happened next? As shown on the XBR/USD chart, Brent oil prices retreated on January 8 to the lower blue line (point C), where bulls successfully resumed the uptrend, pushing the price close to $81—a level last seen in early October 2024, near a key peak (not shown on the chart). According to The Wall Street Journal: → Demand was supported by sanctions imposed by the outgoing Biden administration on Russia’s oil industry. → Jonathan Ng, an OCBC Asean economist, noted that the price range of $78–83 appears to be a “relatively comfortable zone” for Brent oil in the near term. From a technical analysis perspective, the XBR/USD chart displays price action resembling a rounding top pattern. Therefore, it’s possible that after the bullish momentum triggered by the sanctions, another pullback towards the blue channel could occur in the short term. Going forward, much will depend on the political and trade policies adopted by the incoming Trump administration. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
2